For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[was thatguy]

“Orange is the new Grads…”
Coming soon to a theater near you!

 

[FROGMAN524]

What I love about these threads is they always piss off the same 2-3 members. So predictable you could set your watch by it.

 

[PaPaG]

You realize that is nothing, relative to the industry right? Ameriquest laid off 17k people in a day in 2006. Countrywide did the same, and even more people.

It is obvious the market is changing, we have no idea what it will change into.

It is the start, the open eyed and fact followers do have an idea what will and what is changing...market slowdown (happening), price decreases (happening), demand decrease (happening), inventory increase slowly but factually surely (happening), interest rates skyrocketing (Happened and will continue, just the beginning as the fed keeps raising) , I think expecting it is not happening or the market is not changing for the worse is blind eyed by the dreamers...

 

[PaPaG]

Does this mean 7.3 prices will tank as well?

I wish then I could buy a few more

 

[Singleton]

Data is showing a flatter increase

 

[HB2Havasu]

Opportunity on the horizon boys. Both in the financial markets & real estate.

Prepare the deck!!

Exactly. Recessions are what makes you money when tactfully invested at the correct time and place!

I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful…….Warren Buffet

 

[Done-it-again]

It is the start, the open eyed and fact followers do have an idea what will and what is changing...market slowdown (happening), price decreases (happening), demand decrease (happening), inventory increase slowly but factually surely (happening), interest rates skyrocketing (Happened and will continue, just the beginning as the fed keeps raising) , I think expecting it is not happening or the market is not changing for the worse is blind eyed by the dreamers...

So what is your prediction/opinion on a housing correction? 20% or more?

 

[PaPaG]

So what is your prediction/opinion on a housing correction? 20% or more?

At least 20%, 30-40% in some extremely over inflated areas. I think Powel will increase another .75 on the next rate hike, then another .75 possibly go to only .5 on the following and then a .25 in the following hikes, (all awhile it negatively effecting the housing market in a slowdown) the fed has been so far behind in acting that it has to act aggressively to slow inflation down while at the same time that we are in a recession (which we are in now).

 

[hallett21]

That is pretty damn elitist of you to say, Sir. I'm not sure you realize that outside of the weather is nice bubble that you live in there are a majority of States that have an average salary far below below what you see on the West and NorthEast coasts, but that's been ok because our cost of living has reflected that in the past. However, the cost of living does not reflect that anymore and the pain is coming and it's coming hard and will impact the Socialist bubble you have been living in out there with your head in the tulips.

I hope I`m wrong, but all of you that sit out there and accept the political leaders that espouse the exact opposite of what you believe in will have
no sympathy from me. We are soon to be way beyond the sky is falling scenario and all of you have your deck chairs and fiddles and bows out ready to play are in for an awakening.

It doesnt matter if there are 50 million unemployed workers soon to be on the bread lines making $40k or $400k, it seems to me that they have all been living paycheck to paycheck and that is a fuk'ing disaster...

The title of the thread

For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS​

Followed up by Chase laying off 1,000 employees that on a quick google search make between 30-50k.

With next to nothing in debt, a 3% mortgage and 55k in household income the buyer could afford roughly a 300k loan. That would include taxes, insurance etc.

Here’s the average cost of a home in the US. Obviously there’s extremes to these numbers but going off of the averages these people who were just laid off would have needed to bring 80k to the table to buy a home (pre Covid).

But the Refi boom didn’t happen until 2019-2020, so you could argue they were never employed by Chase either.

But assuming these people were able to buy a home in the last 2-3 years, there are thousands of job openings that would allow them to continue to pay their mortgage. My “were fucked” comment was in jest. While it sucks that these people lost their jobs, they have not (at the current time) lost the ability to go find other work to pay their bills.

Haven’t had a good CA bashing thread in a while

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

The title of the thread

For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS​

Followed up by Chase laying off 1,000 employees that on a quick google search make between 30-50k.

With next to nothing in debt, a 3% mortgage and 55k in household income the buyer could afford roughly a 300k loan. That would include taxes, insurance etc.

View attachment 1128943

Here’s the average cost of a home in the US. Obviously there’s extremes to these numbers but going off of the averages these people who were just laid off would have needed to bring 80k to the table to buy a home (pre Covid).

But the Refi boom didn’t happen until 2019-2020, so you could argue they were never employed by Chase either.

But assuming these people were able to buy a home in the last 2-3 years, there are thousands of job openings that would allow them to continue to pay their mortgage. My “were fucked” comment was in jest. While it sucks that these people lost their jobs, they have not (at the current time) lost the ability to go find other work to pay their bills.

Haven’t had a good CA bashing thread in a while

Your response here is so predictable it’s like clockwork. Don’t you realize the sky is falling and we are 18 months from total global financial annihilation? Prices of homes we don’t own and refuse to buy are dropping.To not acknowledge your certain doom regardless of your financial situation is capricious and callous. You must join our daily mass of holding our hands to our temples espousing grave predictions, making broad inaccurate generalizations, and wagging our fingers at society at large from our soapbox or risk being labeled a “Mortgage Broker”.

 

[angiebaby]

So a 5-10k reduction in the mortgage industry is going to “kill” housing ? Where they probably had too many people to begin with. IDK.

Once we start losing blue collar jobs then I start to worry.

I love the qualifiers. Six months ago it was "When people start losing jobs, I'll start to worry." One month ago it was, "When people start losing good paying jobs, I'll start to worry." Today it's, "When blue-collar workers start losing their jobs then I start to worry." I recognize you didn't say all of these, @Done-it-again, but this is the trend I've noticed. Granted, unemployment remains historically low for now. If new construction and remodel/pool construction slow, you'll see the beginning of your blue-collar job reduction.

 

[LuauLounge]

There are several new developments that are going in Norcal, They are single family homes that are investor owned designed to be rentals. My guess is that over 10% of new homes cost is marketing. So why not? Small apartments are going for $1,500/month, large, double that. You get your brand new suburban home all landscaped for only $3,999/month. No homeowner worries...........

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I love the qualifiers. Six months ago it was "When people start losing jobs, I'll start to worry." One month ago it was, "When people start losing good paying jobs, I'll start to worry." Today it's, "When blue-collar workers start losing their jobs then I start to worry." I recognize you didn't say all of these, @Done-it-again, but this is the trend I've noticed. Granted, unemployment remains historically low for now. If new construction and remodel/pool construction slow, you'll see the beginning of your blue-collar job reduction.

Respectfully, it always has been when people that actually own houses start loosing jobs we will see stuff for sale. That is no different than any other recession.

Baristas, servers, and Target and Trader Joe’s employees living with parents don’t affect housing prices.

 

[Vib]

There are several new developments that are going in Norcal, They are single family homes that are investor owned designed to be rentals. My guess is that over 10% of new homes cost is marketing. So why not? Small apartments are going for $1,500/month, large, double that. You get your brand new suburban home all landscaped for only $3,999/month. No homeowner worries...........

Good friend of mine just started as managing director of one of the companies building these neighborhoods around the country.

Demand is high, roi for the company is insane.

They say its the new model. Time will tell.

 

[Springfield]

It is on Netflix right now. Cheesy title, poorly acted but has boats in it. Don Aronow story.

Called "Speed Kills"

Joe I posted a thread on that a few days ago and was criticized. I watched it and found it boating entertainment no matter what level.

 

[hallett21]

I love the qualifiers. Six months ago it was "When people start losing jobs, I'll start to worry." One month ago it was, "When people start losing good paying jobs, I'll start to worry." Today it's, "When blue-collar workers start losing their jobs then I start to worry." I recognize you didn't say all of these, @Done-it-again, but this is the trend I've noticed. Granted, unemployment remains historically low for now. If new construction and remodel/pool construction slow, you'll see the beginning of your blue-collar job reduction.

11 million unfulfilled job openings from the last report.

I’d be willing to bet 1/2 are minimum wage. Even if it’s 3/4 that leaves 2.75 million of ok paying jobs out there.

Adding up the Tesla, Chase, Rocket, etc barely puts a dent in the above figure.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

11 million unfulfilled job openings from the last report.

I’d be willing to bet 1/2 are minimum wage. Even if it’s 3/4 that leaves 2.75 million of ok paying jobs out there.

Adding up the Tesla, Chase, Rocket, etc barely puts a dent in the above figure.

All they are doing is trimming fat from growing too fast over the last 2 years right now. That could change, we don’t know yet. There are still help wanted signs everywhere.

 

[MSum661]

Likely to see foreclosure numbers start stacking up bigly.

Servicer's have quickly whittled away at the remaining loans in forbearance down to 0.85%.
What that means is that with the rapid spike in high mortgage interest rates, 6+%, combined with inflation that is outpacing wage growth it will seriously complicate
borrowers exiting forbearance trying to rotate into either a loan modification or payment deferral to carry on.

If they couldn't make good on their mortgage payments in the 3-4% range from the get-go, there is a very slim chance they can qualify or make good on paying mortgage payments with loan modification at 6+%.

MBA estimates 425,000 homewowners are currently working out forbearance plans at this time.

 

[mesquito_creek]

Post up when prices in Havasu are back to 150 a square foot… otherwise at 250-300 a foot it’s still un-obtainium

 

[Christopher Lucero]

I am honored and proud that there is so much wise and relevant opinion here.
The comment about 18% of ownership is corporate rental/REITs. WOW. THAT is insightful.
my 2 cents...

Corporate SFR investment funds/REITS have been a development that contributed to the price inflation, changing the SFR market into one that is biased particularly against renters, and young people just starting out. So, unless such young people are the 'lucky' ones who are making bank in high paying jobs, they may be unlucky and be further priced out and forced to rent in smaller places, cheaper locales, or to take on more roommates.
This is characterized as the 'death of the American Dream'
Those SFR investment enterprises are crafty, and what may be interesting as this develops is which of them are too highly levered ("when the tide goes out, you find out who's swimming naked") to remain solvent without selling short, or which ones let contracts with renters who did not read the fine print about how and when their rent can be raised, and those enterprises that MIGHT resort to evictions to protect their interests in a market where there is destitution from widespread unemployment (should that also occur).
I liked the general absence of much political blamesmanship here. too. It is the moves by the Fed that were acutely precipitate of this squeeze/crunch, not policy or executive action. We may suffer if politicians/executives 'decide' to provide relief that confounds free market principles - as we have seen many times in the past few years.

 

[TPC]

Friends problems have been the buyers making the offer haven't been vetted very well.
Falls outta escrow because the buyers BS & by then the value and new offers have dropped significantly.

Both buyer and seller's agents have to check the validity of the buyers qualifications more carefully.

 

[RiverDave]

I've ordered cases of Monavie by the truck load! I'm stocking it deep and selling it cheep!

View attachment 1128797

She wasn’t talking about me wheeler.. lol

 

[Magic Mike]

I’m not the spelling police, but I see extremely intelligent people offering highly detailed explanations of complex theories, repeatedly using the word “loosing” when I think they mean to say “losing” instead.

 

[Done-it-again]

At least 20%, 30-40% in some extremely over inflated areas. I think Powel will increase another .75 on the next rate hike, then another .75 possibly go to only .5 on the following and then a .25 in the following hikes, (all awhile it negatively effecting the housing market in a slowdown) the fed has been so far behind in acting that it has to act aggressively to slow inflation down while at the same time that we are in a recession (which we are in now).

I agree....20% brings us back to normal price increase and pre covid pricing. So when that does happen ( i think it will) it will kill "housing"? Yea interest rates need to be above the inflation number to really make a difference.... At the same time, i believe home rates will fall back to mid 4's to mid 6's...but not to what we have seen. It will be come a normal home buying experience for many many years.

 

[pronstar]

This “crash” isn’t due to shitbag borrowers.
Its due to rising interest rates that are killing buying power.

The housing market is hot and overheated in some markets, but besides inevitable downturns when is it not?

The underlying fundamentals are still the same.
There’s a shitload of equity in homes, and no one is gonna walk away from a sub-4% mortgage.

Very good take in the market without a lot of spin…you might be surprised at some of the data…don’t be fooled by the headline, he’s not saying to panic:

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

This “crash” isn’t due to shitbag borrowers.
Its due to rising interest rates that are killing buying power.

The housing market is hot and overheated in some markets, but besides inevitable downturns when is it not?

The underlying fundamentals are still the same.
There’s a shitload of equity in homes, and no one is gonna walk away from a sub-4% mortgage.

Very good take in the market without a lot of spin…you might be surprised at some of the data…don’t be fooled by the headline, he’s not saying to panic:

What are you a mortgage broker? Don’t conflate this blind panic with facts.

 

[530RL]

Out of curiosity, how many of those in here who believe the market is going to fall, have sold their houses and are now renting in in anticipation of the drop?

A few observations:

The Fed’s mandate as outlined by Powell is to tame inflation and keep unemployment at a historical levels. Not focused on growth or recession but inflation and employment. Average unemployment in the US has been around 5.75%. It is currently 3.6%.

No crystal ball is perfect, but it seems that the economy is very hot right now with high employment, high factory utilization, high pricing on everything from homes to labor to fuel, and low availability of parts, supplies and inventories. A cooling back to historical levels will certainly be the minimum goal to bring down inflation.

Lastly the historical 30 year fixed mortgage rate is just under 8%. Getting back to 7.5 or so would be approaching the average. Those who purchased their “overpriced” home over the last couple years and locked a 30 year mortgage at 3 and 4 may in ten years look back on it as a very wise, or very lucky, decision.

 

[TPC]

What I love about these threads is they always piss off the same 2-3 members. So predictable you could set your watch by it.

Like HTM boat threads. Haven't seen one of those rhubarbs in a spell.

 

[Done-it-again]

I love the qualifiers. Six months ago it was "When people start losing jobs, I'll start to worry." One month ago it was, "When people start losing good paying jobs, I'll start to worry." Today it's, "When blue-collar workers start losing their jobs then I start to worry." I recognize you didn't say all of these, @Done-it-again, but this is the trend I've noticed. Granted, unemployment remains historically low for now. If new construction and remodel/pool construction slow, you'll see the beginning of your blue-collar job reduction.

I don't have the data, and nor I have time to look for it.... But it would be interesting to see the normal amount of layoffs that happen on a monthly bases and compare that to now what is "published" for fear mongering.

Businesses have been adding people like crazy to keep up with demand to keep business moving/growing... But at the same time is that business just throwing people at it and the more I add the more we can do? Are they really making the same margins with all those added people or if they could work smarter could they have accomplished the same task without adding 100-1000 people, but that is hard to to when demand for your product jumps really fast. So when things do slow some (a normal business roller coaster) companies trim the fat and its usually the work force that are not buying 600k plus houses.

 

[HNL2LHC]

Post up when prices in Havasu are back to 150 a square foot… otherwise at 250-300 a foot it’s still un-obtainium

Will do I got yore back!!! But I am sure their, there, they’r will a thread on it.

I’m not the spelling police, but I see extremely intelligent people offering highly detailed explanations of complex theories, repeatedly using the word “loosing” when I think they mean to say “losing” instead.

Eye don’t sea any of this that ewe are talking about. I am cornfused!!!

 

[angiebaby]

I’m not the spelling police, but I see extremely intelligent people offering highly detailed explanations of complex theories, repeatedly using the word “loosing” when I think they mean to say “losing” instead.

My pet peeve is when people write "I could care less . . . " or "I can care less" (posted today). That means that you currently care, but you may not later. What they intend to state is "I couldn't care less" meaning they don't care at all now, so there is no "less" to care. It takes every ounce of energy from my school marm fingers to not correct people, LOL. I always left the grammar checking to Wes, but now he's off doing his archery shit and I have to suffer through it in silence No one likes a grammar nazi

 

[bonesfab]

My pet peeve is when people write "I could care less . . . " or "I can care less" (posted today). That means that you currently care, but you may not later. What they intend to state is "I couldn't care less" meaning they don't care at all now, so there is no "less" to care. It takes every ounce of energy from my school marm fingers to not correct people, LOL. I always left the grammar checking to Wes, but now he's off doing his archery shit and I have to suffer through it No one likes a grammar nazi

Yes teacher. We will write 50 times on the black board.

 

[RVR SWPR]

Reading these RE threads reminds when watching Fox. I ask,who are all these so called experts in the little box on screen? What do they know we do not know? Exception at times for Varney or Kudlow.

 

[RVR SWPR]

My pet peeve is when people write "I could care less . . . " or "I can care less" (posted today). That means that you currently care, but you may not later. What they intend to state is "I couldn't care less" meaning they don't care at all now, so there is no "less" to care. It takes every ounce of energy from my school marm fingers to not correct people, LOL. I always left the grammar checking to Wes, but now he's off doing his archery shit and I have to suffer through it No one likes a grammar nazi

You guys were missed when not posting a few years back. Keep posting,interesting journey you guys experiencing. Gotta say your timing was perfect for major life changes.
Thanks

 

[monkeyswrench]

Two things:
One: Apparently 529.5 is wearing the one and only "Build Back Better" hat...

Two: Why have none of you financial geniuses answered my question?

****Majority say "this is nothing like 07..."
And then the same people, "it took 3-5 years for the market to bottom in 07"

Well, this isn't 07...we can all agree. Why would the bottom then follow the course of 07?***

The contributing factors are different. Like any equation, change the input and the outcome should be different. If not, why?

 

[was thatguy]

My pet peeve is when people write "I could care less . . . " or "I can care less" (posted today). That means that you currently care, but you may not later. What they intend to state is "I couldn't care less" meaning they don't care at all now, so there is no "less" to care. It takes every ounce of energy from my school marm fingers to not correct people, LOL. I always left the grammar checking to Wes, but now he's off doing his archery shit and I have to suffer through it No one likes a grammar nazi

Wes was right.

 

[Racey]

Out of curiosity, how many of those in here who believe the market is going to fall, have sold their houses and are now renting in in anticipation of the drop?

A few observations:

The Fed’s mandate as outlined by Powell is to tame inflation and keep unemployment at a historical levels. Not focused on growth or recession but inflation and employment. Average unemployment in the US has been around 5.75%. It is currently 3.6%.

No crystal ball is perfect, but it seems that the economy is very hot right now with high employment, high factory utilization, high pricing on everything from homes to labor to fuel, and low availability of parts, supplies and inventories. A cooling back to historical levels will certainly be the minimum goal to bring down inflation.

Lastly the historical 30 year fixed mortgage rate is just under 8%. Getting back to 7.5 or so would be approaching the average. Those who purchased their “overpriced” home over the last couple years and locked a 30 year mortgage at 3 and 4 may in ten years look back on it as a very wise, or very lucky, decision.

The same fed that a year ago said they didn't see inflation becoming a problem is now gonna solve it....

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Two things:
One: Apparently 529.5 is wearing the one and only "Build Back Better" hat...

Two: Why have none of you financial geniuses answered my question?

****Majority say "this is nothing like 07..."
And then the same people, "it took 3-5 years for the market to bottom in 07"

Well, this isn't 07...we can all agree. Why would the bottom then follow the course of 07?***

The contributing factors are different. Like any equation, change the input and the outcome should be different. If not, why?

Demonstrable housing changes always follow negative employment changes. Negative employment changes are always a lagging indicator of economic changes. From a housing perspective all recessions are fairly similar. It’s all good until people lose their ability to pay.

There is a lag from when they lose their ability to pay until they are foreclosed on. There is another lag until that foreclosed property hits the open market, if it ever does.

These transitions take over a year minimum. The economy is still net adding jobs as of last month.

Before 2016 the gloomers were hung up on 2006 prices like they would never happen again and if they did financial ruin would follow. By 2019 they said this housing situation was untenable and could not grow any more. Well prices grew another 50% since then.

 

[Your ad here]

When I see threads like this and the titles the way they are, sometimes all capital letters or half, I can't help but think is this an internet joke or are these people really serious? <-- Being polite there. I laugh and roll my eyes at both but do take bits and pieces from here and there.

 

[Big B Hova]

So when do 08 magic deck boats drop back to 08 prices?

 

[530RL]

The same fed that a year ago said they didn't see inflation becoming a problem is now gonna solve it....

Anyone who is relying on the government to fix anything will be sorely disappointed, even if it is their guy running government.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

Two things:
One: Apparently 529.5 is wearing the one and only "Build Back Better" hat...

Two: Why have none of you financial geniuses answered my question?

****Majority say "this is nothing like 07..."
And then the same people, "it took 3-5 years for the market to bottom in 07"

Well, this isn't 07...we can all agree. Why would the bottom then follow the course of 07?***

The contributing factors are different. Like any equation, change the input and the outcome should be different. If not, why

Well the underlying result of all the variables that cause a decline in housing is that demand for home ownership will be less than the supply and hence prices will drop. It doesn’t matter why or what causes it. It’s simple economic theory if you think demand will stay strong then prices are not likely to decline.

You are arguing that since the reasons for the drop in demand are different we will have a different result? I say same result but path forward will be different we don’t know how the govt will intervene and fuck it up yet.

Did you guys see the short term rental restrictions proposed for Clark county? Huge cut numbers allowed as STR.

 

[Cdog]

Two things:
One: Apparently 529.5 is wearing the one and only "Build Back Better" hat...

Two: Why have none of you financial geniuses answered my question?

****Majority say "this is nothing like 07..."
And then the same people, "it took 3-5 years for the market to bottom in 07"

Well, this isn't 07...we can all agree. Why would the bottom then follow the course of 07?***

The contributing factors are different. Like any equation, change the input and the outcome should be different. If not, why?

Economic cycles repeat over & over. Greed & leverage push to a point where returning to fundamentals is the only fix. It happens over & over.

You could say history repeats itself, but not in the same way. There are graphs that chart out the YOY appreciation of things like SFR in the US historically that I’m too lazy to look up for everyone. That’s a good start. We will easily see 2019 pricing. But keep in mind the government is ran by idiots who manage this thing like the dick in traffic that uses his gas pedal like an on & off switch.

Government intervention, employment, groups like black rock, vacation rentals, financial market correction & boomer migration are what to watch from my perspective as a guy that’s stuck for 10 more years till my kids are out of college.

with a 2.75% 30 yr fixed, why would you make any moves unless you had to?

 

[Ziggy]

Geezus.........I open this shit up to post a thread about a boat movie I just watched and this is at the top.

Why can't you people just start one thread like the Speed one and just keep adding to it??

It is almost like the doom and gloomers are salivating to say I told you so after they have been wrong for almost 10 years.

But that wouldn’t be as much fun!

Life goes on people! Adjust where necessary, keep your head down and grind through it. Life’s to short to be so damn negative. Live life!

My wife tells me I don’t worry enough and I should care more. Maybe she’s right? I definitely don’t have my head in the sand but I can’t live my life being so damn negative.

Nothing wrong with being proactive or cautious but Fn-A, sitting around with a dark cloud over your head all day is detrimental to your sanity.

 

[monkeyswrench]

Demonstrable housing changes always follow negative employment changes. Negative employment changes are always a lagging indicator of economic changes. From a housing perspective all recessions are fairly similar. It’s all good until people lose their ability to pay.

There is a lag from when they lose their ability to pay until they are foreclosed on. There is another lag until that foreclosed property hits the open market, if it ever does.

These transitions take over a year minimum. The economy is still net adding jobs as of last month.

Before 2016 the gloomers were hung up on 2006 prices like they would never happen again and if they did financial ruin would follow. By 2019 they said this housing situation was untenable and could not grow any more. Well prices grew another 50% since then.

I understand the lag time, I just find it odd that anything can be nothing like one thing, and yet also exactly the same. Seems relatively counterintuitive.

As for the economy adding rather than shedding jobs, I wonder if the jobs are equivalent of those lost? Meaning, are those cut from 50k jobs getting the same, or 30k? During Obummer's term, I heard the term "underemployed". Was a new term to me, but publicized heavily at the time. I wonder if their job numbers are as accurate as their inflation numbers...picking and choosing to tell their story.

 

[monkeyswrench]

Well the underlying result of all the variables that cause a decline in housing is that demand for home ownership will be less than the supply and hence prices will drop. It doesn’t matter why or what causes it. It’s simple economic theory if you think demand will stay strong then prices are not likely to decline.

You are arguing that since the reasons for the drop in demand are different we will have a different result? I say same result but path forward will be different we don’t know how the govt will intervene and fuck it up yet.

Did you guys see the short term rental restrictions proposed for Clark county? Huge cut numbers allowed as STR.

I'm thinking the same result, but thinking the charts may become more vertical. I don't see how the draw down would be as lengthy as previous, given more contributing factors. Inflation, war and supply chain stupidity to name a few...but the real wild card will be every time the administration makes a move.

 

[Cdog]

I understand the lag time, I just find it odd that anything can be nothing like one thing, and yet also exactly the same. Seems relatively counterintuitive.

As for the economy adding rather than shedding jobs, I wonder if the jobs are equivalent of those lost? Meaning, are those cut from 50k jobs getting the same, or 30k? During Obummer's term, I heard the term "underemployed". Was a new term to me, but publicized heavily at the time. I wonder if their job numbers are as accurate as their inflation numbers...picking and choosing to tell their story.

Boomers retiring. There will be voids to fill for sometime to come. There's also large employers bitching about lack of hirable candidates due to shit wages and an attempt to push for H1b visas to undercut American workers.

This is a big problem with both demorats & Rino slime.

 

[traquer]

One of my buddies is a top 10 loan officer at his company. Made millions the last few years. These days he's just chilling by the pool and playing with his kid. Well needed rest before his next adventure.

 

[pronstar]

Employment is still well-below pre-pandemic levels.
I don’t think we’re adding jobs, as we are still climbing back to zero.

 

[was thatguy]

Anyone who is relying on the government to fix anything will be sorely disappointed, even if it is their guy running government.

You’re not happy with your choice?