For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[Havasu blue label]

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Jesus Ashley,
Yore right.

Until yore not.
Carry on...

Dan'l

3 of the mortgage lenders on that master list up there that laid off a few people are either my customers or customers of my work colleagues. We talk with their executives monthly. They are having a massive falloff in business that is to be expected when rates triple in 4 months.

I worked for a mortgage company from 02-07. The one that took down the entire economy . It was the biggest privately held company in the country. The owner skipped out of the country with $8B tax free as the ambassador to the Netherlands.

This ain’t that right now.

So carry on Dan’l.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Geezus.........I open this shit up to post a thread about a boat movie I just watched and this is at the top.

Why can't you people just start one thread like the Speed one and just keep adding to it??

It is almost like the doom and gloomers are salivating to say I told you so after they have been wrong for almost 10 years.

 

[jet496]

Redfin laid off 8% of its workforce, Compass 10%, THOSANDS MORE TO COME.

As inflation hit 68.6% in May and mortgage rates skyrocketed past 6%, as of mid-June, real estate brokerages and services are tightening their belts.​

Fixed it for you.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Countrywide Pasadena

 

[2Driver]

I bet most of the lay offs are about trying to make 3rd and 4th quarter numbers because of the revenue shortfalls due to post covid, supply chain and labor costs.
The old revenue miss but earning beat.

 

[CoronaChris]

A liberal in office can fuck up a 2 car funeral -cc

 

[hallett21]

Can we start betting on it now? Last time I offered this all I heard were crickets. And had you taken the bet I’d be cashing checks lol

 

[Nanu/Nanu]

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I bet most of the lay offs are about trying to make 3rd and 4th quarter numbers because of the revenue shortfalls due to post covid, supply chain and labor costs.
The old revenue miss but earning beat.

At this point you are spot on. They are just reducing spend at this point. My client was going all in to Azure cloud and we were going to lose 10s of millions of revenue over the next few years. They did a complete 180 and are now pulling everything out of cloud and back on prem to control costs. We are in talks now to help them pivot and set up a new enterprise agreement.

 

[Nanu/Nanu]

I'm so ready for these lakes to be empty!!! Oh yeah and now maybe I'll be lucky enough to have a calm glamis on holiday weekends

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Can we start betting on it now? Last time I offered this all I heard were crickets. And had you taken the bet I’d be cashing checks lol

Let’s bet on who will actually buy something in the next 90 days when prices will be 50% lower

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I'm so ready for these lakes to be empty!!! Oh yeah and now maybe I'll be lucky enough to have a calm glamis on holiday weekends

Dude if $6 gas isn’t gonna do it, you are gonna need to see at least half a bakers dozen as the unemployment number for that to start happen.

 

[hallett21]

Let’s bet on who will actually buy something in the next 90 days when prices will be 50% lower

Lol I’ll take action on anything at this point.

The constant “end is near” is exhausting. These broken clocks eventually will be right.

Everyone who got burned in 2008 is salivating that they are on the right side of history this time.

Problem is that our 2008 may have happened in 2020. Billions were made in real estate and the stock market. What if cashing out and waiting/renting is the worst thing you could have done?

I don’t know the answer but when the Uber driver is saying to buy a stock, there’s a recession, or any other hot tip I tend to go the other way lol.

 

[Nanu/Nanu]

Dude if $6 gas isn’t gonna do it, you are gonna need to see at least half a bakers dozen as the unemployment number for that to start happen.

Wishful thinking

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Lol I’ll take action on anything at this point.

The constant “end is near” is exhausting. These broken clocks eventually will be right.

Everyone who got burned in 2008 is salivating that they are on the right side of history this time.

Problem is that our 2008 may have happened in 2020. Billions were made in real estate and the stock market. What if cashing out and waiting/renting is the worst thing you could have done?

I don’t know the answer but when the Uber driver is saying to buy a stock, there’s a recession, or any other hot tip I tend to go the other way lol.

The chicken littles have ADHD. We are 90 days into this. We are not even through the first inning.

If they are right or wrong I’ll buy some stuff when the price is right and they will still be paralyzed with worry the economy will implode in another 18 months, and literally watch everything double in price AGAIN waiting for financial armageddon.

 

[FishSniper]

These posts are comedy to me seems they either are posted by people who sold wanting it to seem like they are smarter then everyone and sold at the peak or by people praying a dump happens cause they didn’t buy in the last few years prior to the spike. Is the market going to correct at some point ? Of course doesn’t take a brain surgeon to tell you rates going way up, economy going to shit cause of these fraudulently elected morons in office and rapid inflation not to mention how far up prices have gone lately is not sustainable.

 

[DLC]

Geezus.........I open this shit up to post a thread about a boat movie I just watched and this is at the top.

Why can't you people just start one thread like the Speed one and just keep adding to it??

It is almost like the doom and gloomers are salivating to say I told you so after they have been wrong for almost 10 years.

Someone say Speed Thread……

 

[Springfield]

Geezus.........I open this shit up to post a thread about a boat movie I just watched and this is at the top.

Why can't you people just start one thread like the Speed one and just keep adding to it??

It is almost like the doom and gloomers are salivating to say I told you so after they have been wrong for almost 10 years.

What’s the boat flic Joe I’m interested.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Some say Speed Thread……

If we say it 3 times will you manifest another one?

 

[2Driver]

Im not sure what the fall out of the leveraged crypto will be. It could be substantial, not sure.

After all the shake out is done we will all learn the lessons of this period just like we did in 2010

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

What’s the boat flic Joe I’m interested.

It is on Netflix right now. Cheesy title, poorly acted but has boats in it. Don Aronow story.

Called "Speed Kills"

 

[Doc]

Lol I’ll take action on anything at this point.

The constant “end is near” is exhausting. These broken clocks eventually will be right.

Everyone who got burned in 2008 is salivating that they are on the right side of history this time.

Problem is that our 2008 may have happened in 2020. Billions were made in real estate and the stock market. What if cashing out and waiting/renting is the worst thing you could have done?

I don’t know the answer but when the Uber driver is saying to buy a stock, there’s a recession, or any other hot tip I tend to go the other way lol.

I agree with you. Different scenario here and your probably right about companies tightening their belts for 3rd and 4th quarter. In 2008 it was major layoffs across the board combined with Arm Loans to people with stated income that couldn't afford their payment after the loan matured.

I think the increase listings are peoples last ditch efforts who want to attempt to get top dollar for their homes but with these rates they are going to have to rethink their prices now with increase listings of people trying to do the same.

You will see some vrbo homes coming up also as people don't want to be stuck footing the bill in case things go south. I don't think the sky is falling yet I think we are finally seeing the correction we needed.

 

[HNL2LHC]

I'm not gonna mention any names but some folks are about to have a comeundun about another doom and gloom RE post.

At least this is not a Vin……yet. Just wait for that to happen. One member is going to loose his shit. Let’s also leave out the grammar police LOL

 

[Outdrive1]

Yay, another LOF bashing thread.

 

[ChumpChange]

Hope some of those laid off are the top producers who know how to improvise, adapt and deliver results. If so we have tons of openings for them as well as the other ten million openings across the nation.

We don’t get laid off. We take better opportunities.

 

[Fastdadtsmith]

You mean we have to endure bi-daily “The sky is falling” RE threads for 3 more years?

Oh thank God we'll get a day in between to recover.

 

[Flatsix66]

Oh. No!

 

[Wheeler]

Do they do a full body search before the pic? Shit they must. Some crazy mofos out there

The picture fee reduction for Kamala should have been the indicator that shit is about to get real…

Perfect publicity stunt for Trump

 

[monkeyswrench]

I'm just a wrench turning, hammer swinging, knuckle dragging hick, so forgive me if I seem a bit confused:

Majority say "this is nothing like 07..."
And then the same people, "it took 3-5 years for the market to bottom in 07"

Well, this isn't 07...we can all agree. Why would the bottom then follow the course of 07?
I have no clue what's going to happen, but even my redneck ass sees the situation is very different.

 

[kurtis500]

when the crash in 08 happened I believe it wasnt until 2012 when the home prices bottomed out.

 

[bilz]

Unless you lost your job, there's no way you should sell because you are a little upside down especially if you have slow rate.. You really better look at rent costs and decide if want to be at the mercy of a f'kin g landlord. A couple coworkers did this in 08, and these bozos had gov't jobs. Took them years to buy again. One guy actually said"they just kept lending me money"

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

when the crash in 08 happened I believe it wasnt until 2012 when the home prices bottomed out.

Home prices slid from 06 to bottom in 12. There was a pop in 09-10 due to the Obama tax credit for first time buyers.

 

[FCT]

Geezus.........I open this shit up to post a thread about a boat movie I just watched and this is at the top.

Why can't you people just start one thread like the Speed one and just keep adding to it??

It is almost like the doom and gloomers are salivating to say I told you so after they have been wrong for almost 10 years.

But that wouldn’t be as much fun!

Life goes on people! Adjust where necessary, keep your head down and grind through it. Life’s to short to be so damn negative. Live life!

My wife tells me I don’t worry enough and I should care more. Maybe she’s right? I definitely don’t have my head in the sand but I can’t live my life being so damn negative.

 

[HOOTER SLED-]

Geezus.........I open this shit up to post a thread about a boat movie I just watched and this is at the top.

Why can't you people just start one thread like the Speed one and just keep adding to it??

It is almost like the doom and gloomers are salivating to say I told you so after they have been wrong for almost 10 years.

Hey bro....don't sweat these threads......just do like you do at the river when you see someone broke down...keep driving by.

 

[Wheeler]

Geezus.........I open this shit up to post a thread about a boat movie I just watched and this is at the top.

I thought Little Joe was our official movie critic ?? what have you done with @rivermobster ?

 

[Angler]

You mean we have to endure bi-daily “The sky is falling” RE threads for 3 more years?

Going to make for a really bad Winter in the Lounge...

 

[Angler]

Speaking of Speed Car, is anyone selling their line in place yet?

 

[sgtskidmark]

When the market crashed 08 i was shopping for a home in Chino thinking id have my pick of the litter. Not the case, I was competing against several cash buyers. It got to the point where I wouldn’t even look at homes anymore I submitted offers on everything in the market. It took until 2010 to finally have an offer accepted. Im talking full price offers. Back then the market crashed because over 36% of mortgages were stated income adjustable rate mortgages, people with shitty credit. Today that is not the case, only 4% are ARMs, everyone I know purchased and refinanced below a 3% 30yr fixed. No one took out equity. Everyone has been living within their means. I think 2008 taught us all the risk of over leveraging. Today we have a huge supply shortage, tons of qualified buyers. Unemployment rate is under 4% vs 10% in 08. Home builders building too slow and rents are way up. With the market softening people will not look to upgrade leaving their 3% fixed rate and get in to a 6% loan. This will further the home supply constraints. A correction will happen a blood bath not so much. Real estate job market has been over saturated, there are literally more agents than there are homes. There are plenty of vacant jobs to fill. What happens when the supply chains ease up. The war in Ukraine ends, gas prices come back down, and inflation drops. Will we see a boom reversal, all possibilities, The average bear market lasts less than a year no one can time the bottom perfectly.

You beat me to it, my .02 is this is not like 08, this is not a banker thing, it is a demand thing, I honestly think prices will level off but not come down like last time, we will see drops in asking, but it will only be back to value.

 

[sgtskidmark]

You beat me to it, my .02 is this is not like 08, this is not a banker thing, it is a demand thing, I honestly think prices will level off but not come down like last time, we will see drops in asking, but it will only be back to value.

And by the way, R.E. In history has never gone down, except after 08.

 

[Roosky01]

We are fucked View attachment 1128834

That is pretty damn elitist of you to say, Sir. I'm not sure you realize that outside of the weather is nice bubble that you live in there are a majority of States that have an average salary far below below what you see on the West and NorthEast coasts, but that's been ok because our cost of living has reflected that in the past. However, the cost of living does not reflect that anymore and the pain is coming and it's coming hard and will impact the Socialist bubble you have been living in out there with your head in the tulips.

I hope I`m wrong, but all of you that sit out there and accept the political leaders that espouse the exact opposite of what you believe in will have
no sympathy from me. We are soon to be way beyond the sky is falling scenario and all of you have your deck chairs and fiddles and bows out ready to play are in for an awakening.

It doesnt matter if there are 50 million unemployed workers soon to be on the bread lines making $40k or $400k, it seems to me that they have all been living paycheck to paycheck and that is a fuk'ing disaster...

 

[Dalton]

And by the way, R.E. In history has never gone down, except after 08.

This is overall true and kinda puts things in perspective. I have seen a few properties though that only just recently eclipsed their sale prices from 2006.

 

[Flatsix66]

And by the way, R.E. In history has never gone down, except after 08.

Except this time ~18% of the single-family homes are owned by institutional investors.

 

[sgtskidmark]

In

Except this time ~18% of the single-family homes are owned by institutional investors.

Interesting,I did not realize that, however I’m still thinking that that could be one of the many reasons this “correction “ will not be like before,…. Now I am speculating, I could be wrong,. But I will still bet my $ that all will “level” off, and prices will still be at current market value……. Which is still overinflated.

 

[JUSTWANNARACE]

I dont think we will see 2008 thus far, in the housing market.. the last "crash" was caused by the "housing" market and bad loans. This time its different.. there will definitely be a temporary halt, and reset, back to non-inflated prices.. the people that bought in the last couple years(first time buyers) are gonna be upside down when comps go back to normal... jmo

 

[ka0tyk]

It’s a market crash for regular buyers like you and I… but not for funds looking to park their money by buying an entire community.

 

[*BN*]

Except this time ~18% of the single-family homes are owned by institutional investors.

If your speaking of 1031 (or possible future) 1031)…. Those are not going anywhere must hold property for certain length, and no tax gain if they sell until death.

Now they can sell but must reinvest in like property in certain amount of days, again no tax gain.

I do agree that institutions do own a lot but it should not affect inventory

Brian

 

[jailbird141]

With so many experts on here, can someone just tell me when all the boats and SXS will be going up for sale? I am ready for the deals!

 

[attitude]

With so many experts on here, can someone just tell me when all the boats and SXS will be going up for sale? I am ready for the deals!

They’ve already started to come down, not much I would call a “deal” but they are on their way.

 

[*BN*]

With so many experts on here, can someone just tell me when all the boats and SXS will be going up for sale? I am ready for the deals!

No expert here…

Agree, toys you would think would be flooding the market driving prices down.

To throw more shade, in my time this has happen during every democratic presidentcy.

Carter
Clinton early 90’s
Obama (Clinton policies while in office.)
Biden now

So no need to be an expert, this is normal unfortunately.

Brian