For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[Go-Fly]

The angle is appreciation best I can tell. If the past is an indicator of the future, they will be OK if they don’t hit any speed bumps with income.

At this point in my like I’d rather buy 4 properties outside CA to cover that nut.

There was a time in my life when I had $42 in the bank. There was a time in my life I owned 10% of that same bank. My tipping point was when I decided not to be a servant to my house and miss out on opportunities. I'm watching people commit all their money and 30 years of their lives to a house that they may break even on. Live for today is a dead end road in my mind. I'm finding very few people think the way I do. I wont make that mistake again.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

There was a time in my life when I had $42 in the bank. There was a time in my life I owned 10% of that same bank. My tipping point was when I decided not to be a servant to my house and miss out on opportunities. I'm watching people commit all their money and 30 years of their lives to a house that they may break even on. Live for today is a dead end road in my mind. I'm finding very few people think the way I do. I wont make that mistake again.

Sounds like we may have the same thought process.

People are gonna do what they think is right at the time. Some will be right, some will be wrong, just like this dumpster fire of a thread. Some may even be right and wrong lol.

No one ever had a specific conversation with me about this, but I’ve never in my life paid more than 25% of my income for housing. I just remember thinking when I moved out it’s probably not a good idea to spend more than that. I have never viewed the house I live in as an investment. I view it as rent control. If it makes money in the long run, great.

If someone wants to be house poor, let them. We aren’t going to change their minds unless they are open to hearing a different perspective.

I’ve watched people do a lot of dumb stuff and win, and others do the same stuff and lose. It is all just timing.

 

[1manshow]

Are lay offs or recessions a thing of the past? Shit I know most of us have been there assessing our worst case scenario. It was a lot easier scraping together and mortgage payment when it was 1- $2000 a month. hell California unemployment last time I had a couple months off was early 2000s and it was 1850 a month. can you imagine trying to scrape together 7- $8000 while being unemployed?

Can’t comment on the lay offs or recession but our good friends that both work as correctional officers up here in central Ca were told the furloughs are coming soon. They were told Ca has never been in this bad of shape Which we already know.FNEWSOM

 

[BHC Vic]

Can’t comment on the lay offs or recession but our good friends that both work as correctional officers up here in central Ca were told the furloughs are coming soon. They were told Ca has never been in this bad of shape Which we already know.FNEWSOM

Ive also heard that about the prisons. They want to shut norco prison down.

 

[CarolynandBob]

There was a time in my life when I had $42 in the bank. There was a time in my life I owned 10% of that same bank. My tipping point was when I decided not to be a servant to my house and miss out on opportunities. I'm watching people commit all their money and 30 years of their lives to a house that they may break even on. Live for today is a dead end road in my mind. I'm finding very few people think the way I do. I wont make that mistake again.

You are correct about about how someone thinks.

I was homeless at age 24 due to a wife that really screwed me over. Slept in my car and showered at the gym. Went from that to retiring at age 49. Only a high school and Navy education, but I knew how to work hard.

 

[Looking Glass]

Can’t comment on the lay offs or recession but our good friends that both work as correctional officers up here in central Ca were told the furloughs are coming soon. They were told Ca has never been in this bad of shape Which we already know.FNEWSOM

Watching hi during his Debate with DeSantis, he sure gave the Impression that Everything was "Peachy"

 

[Go-Fly]

Sounds like we may have the same thought process.

People are gonna do what they think is right at the time. Some will be right, some will be wrong, just like this dumpster fire of a thread. Some may even be right and wrong lol.

No one ever had a specific conversation with me about this, but I’ve never in my life paid more than 25% of my income for housing. I just remember thinking when I moved out it’s probably not a good idea to spend more than that. I have never viewed the house I live in as an investment. I view it as rent control. If it makes money in the long run, great.

If someone wants to be house poor, let them. We aren’t going to change their minds unless they are open to hearing a different perspective.

I’ve watched people do a lot of dumb stuff and win, and others do the same stuff and lose. It is all just timing.

Timing is everything in life. If you find yourself saying, I should have done that, make changes in 2024.

 

[beerrun]

I’d have you so busy in Scottsdale you’d be begging for a day off.

You could afford a big ass house with a shop and room to park all that shit. Lmk when you’re ready. SoCal is only 5 hours away if you get up early enough.

Doing what in Scottsdale?

 

[Cdog]

Doing what in Scottsdale?

Remodeling rich boomers houses. Massive shortage of talent here

 

[beerrun]

Remodeling rich boomers houses. Massive shortage of talent here

I thought you were in truck sales?

 

[Cdog]

I thought you were in truck sales?

I am. Spent the last 23 years as a real estate broker though. I do a lot of stuff.

 

[beerrun]

I am. Spent the last 23 years as a real estate broker though. I do a lot of stuff.

Nice I was hoping there was some great job over there in the trucking industry. Merry Christmas

 

[Cdog]

Nice I was hoping there was some great job over there in the trucking industry. Merry Christmas

Ah! I know a Bunch of owners I can put you in touch with on the vocational side. Dirt work.

 

[beerrun]

Ah! I know a Bunch of owners I can put you in touch with on the vocational side. Dirt work.

I appreciate that maybe after I get through my surgeries and get back to work I will see where we are .we are ready to get out of California

 

[Cdog]

I appreciate that maybe after I get through my surgeries and get back to work I will see where we are .we are ready to get out of California

I sell to several large fleets that run HH, dumps and end dumps. Some yellow iron too. I know and hang out with the owners weekly so don't be shy if you need an intro. Happy to help.

 

[beerrun]

I sell to several large fleets that run HH, dumps and end dumps. Some yellow iron too. I know and hang out with the owners weekly so don't be shy if you need an intro. Happy to help.

Thank you im a lowbed driver but I can drive anything. We want to move but intrest rates may keep us here.

 

[hallett21]

I gotta a good laugh out of this stat. Reminds me of Anchor Man. 60% of the time it works every-time lol.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I gotta a good laugh out of this stat. Reminds me of Anchor Man. 60% of the time it works every-time lol.

View attachment 1316568

Sounds like the prognosticators here with their 18 month financial armageddon egg timers also work for Redfin.

 

[hallett21]

Talk about a yo-yo of price history lol

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Woodland-Hills/4743-Topanga-Canyon-Blvd-91364/home/4198068

 

[77charger]

I’d have you so busy in Scottsdale you’d be begging for a day off.

You could afford a big ass house with a shop and room to park all that shit. Lmk when you’re ready. SoCal is only 5 hours away if you get up early enough.

5 hrs also if you leave late afternoon I normally leave Peoria like 4 pm on a Sunday or midweek to go to work. I have to go to south oc. I average 5:45 with stops goin about 75.

Now with rental car and straight through 5 hrs to south oc.

 

[JL95]

Talk about a yo-yo of price history lol

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Woodland-Hills/4743-Topanga-Canyon-Blvd-91364/home/4198068

$218k down and still $7300/month for a glorified apartment

 

[Havasu blue label]

It’s a perfect market

 

[Cdog]

5 hrs also if you leave late afternoon I normally leave Peoria like 4 pm on a Sunday or midweek to go to work. I have to go to south oc. I average 5:45 with stops goin about 75.

Now with rental car and straight through 5 hrs to south oc.

My record is 4.45 hours from 85255 my door step to 91 & Imperial exit. 1 stop for fuel Ehrenberg chevron.

 

[rivrrts429]

Shopping for a home sucks right now. I don’t need much. I’m single and traveling for work either Monday-Thursday or Tuesday-Friday. I have two kids so need room for them when they’re here. It’s insane what people are asking $$ and getting.

I’m about to live in my RV and take my chances on what the market does but I’m not confident it will soften. Interest rates don’t bother me. It’s just what people’s asking price is for what you’re getting.

Crazy economy right now or maybe just stagflation with a lack of inventory, dunno.

 

[HCP3]

Sea Breeze 366 sq. ft. 1 Bedroom Tiny Home Steel Frame Building Kit ADU Cabin Guest House Home Office SB1B366 - The Home Depot

Plus 1 Home Kits' Seabreeze 366 SQ.FT. 1 BD 1 BA.● Living Area 110.2 SQ FT● Kitchen/Dining Area 145.7 sq ft● Bathroom and Laundry 110.2 sq ft(Square footage approximate, please see this listing's

www.homedepot.com

 

[ChumpChange]

This seems like a good investment. I wonder if they’ll get it. $98mil in six years. lol

https://www.redfin.com/CA/La-Verne/6300-Stephens-Ranch-Rd-91750/home/21921081?600390594=copy_variant&1778901559=variant&utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&utm_campaign=copy_link

 

[RiverDave]

View attachment 1316982 View attachment 1316983 View attachment 1316984 This seems like a good investment. I wonder if they’ll get it. $98mil in six years. lol

https://www.redfin.com/CA/La-Verne/6300-Stephens-Ranch-Rd-91750/home/21921081?600390594=copy_variant&1778901559=variant&utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&utm_campaign=copy_link

That would be the payoff of the century if they get it

 

[ChumpChange]

That would be the payoff of the century if they get it

Definitely wouldn’t be a bad flip. lol.

Found it pretty funny because I drove up the street to that property last January when it snowed here. Always wondered what was behind these gates and now I know.

 

[Englewood]

Shopping for a home sucks right now. I don’t need much. I’m single and traveling for work either Monday-Thursday or Tuesday-Friday. I have two kids so need room for them when they’re here. It’s insane what people are asking $$ and getting.

I’m about to live in my RV and take my chances on what the market does but I’m not confident it will soften. Interest rates don’t bother me. It’s just what people’s asking price is for what you’re getting.

Crazy economy right now or maybe just stagflation with a lack of inventory, dunno.

I’d keep a close eye on interest rates. While it may not impact your situation, a lower rate environment will encourage those sitting on the sidelines to jump in, which will create more demand. Supply will remain an issue until move-up buyers return to the market.

 

[77charger]

My record is 4.45 hours from 85255 my door step to 91 & Imperial exit. 1 stop for fuel Ehrenberg chevron.

Mine was 4:50 south oc to 101/tbird non stop I had cruise at 95 summit to desert center ain’t gonna happen driving my truck or commuter car though. you were going pretty good from imperial/91 I take 5:15 normally and your a lil further up from me.

Normally stop in ehrenberg though most times gas and go.

 

[zhandfull]

The title of thread “For the Real Estate drop in sales and price naysayer's.”

Was looking over existing home sales data from NAR for June 2022 through November 2023.
https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/defau...*14jc67j*_gcl_au*MTk4OTI4NzEwMC4xNzAzNzMxNjc3

There was definitely a drop in sales during the period. Annual sales were around five million back in June of 2022 and have since dropped to about 3.8 million.

Median price also fell about 10% within six months of this thread starting.

More importantly there was a swing from a sellers market to a buyers market for about 6 months after thread started. Actually price concessions were probably greater than 10% from most sellers when adding in closing cost concessions and seller rate buy downs in order to close deals.

I think PaPaG made a pretty good call back in June of 2022.

Just an observation. Not a 2008 crash but a buying opportunity at the expense of sellers is my take.

 

[DWC]

The title of thread “For the Real Estate drop in sales and price naysayer's.”

Was looking over existing home sales data from NAR for June 2022 through November 2023.
https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/defau...*14jc67j*_gcl_au*MTk4OTI4NzEwMC4xNzAzNzMxNjc3

There was definitely a drop in sales during the period. Annual sales were around five million back in June of 2022 and have since dropped to about 3.8 million.

Median price also fell about 10% within six months of this thread starting.

More importantly there was a swing from a sellers market to a buyers market for about 6 months after thread started. Actually price concessions were probably greater than 10% from most sellers when adding in closing cost concessions and seller rate buy downs in order to close deals.

I think PaPaG made a pretty good call back in June of 2022.

Just an observation. Not a 2008 crash but a buying opportunity at the expense of sellers is my take.

Playing armchair investor, you would have dumped everything in June of 2022?
If you timed it perfectly and sold at $413 and bought at $363 what would have been your net?
Less fees, rent, interest rates, moving, storage..

 

[Racer56]

View attachment 1316982 View attachment 1316983 View attachment 1316984 This seems like a good investment. I wonder if they’ll get it. $98mil in six years. lol

https://www.redfin.com/CA/La-Verne/6300-Stephens-Ranch-Rd-91750/home/21921081?600390594=copy_variant&1778901559=variant&utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&utm_campaign=copy_link

If the owners spent the last 6 years getting the property entitled for 200+ homes, their asking price is not far off.

 

[Racer56]

Shopping for a home sucks right now. I don’t need much. I’m single and traveling for work either Monday-Thursday or Tuesday-Friday. I have two kids so need room for them when they’re here. It’s insane what people are asking $$ and getting.

I’m about to live in my RV and take my chances on what the market does but I’m not confident it will soften. Interest rates don’t bother me. It’s just what people’s asking price is for what you’re getting.

Crazy economy right now or maybe just stagflation with a lack of inventory, dunno.

I think you should try hard to buy something really soon.

If the Fed lowers interest rates three times next year as he has indicated, I think the housing market is going to take off again.

 

[ChumpChange]

If the owners spent the last 6 years getting the property entitled for 200+ homes, their asking price is not far off.

True but I also think that the listing would reference that. And that hasn’t happened. Another developer tried to get that for the golf course (Marshall Canyon) just south of there which this property overlooks.

Just had another development like that once city over. Braswell Estates. Took out the mountain.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Playing armchair investor, you would have dumped everything in June of 2022?
If you timed it perfectly and sold at $413 and bought at $363 what would have been your net?
Less fees, rent, interest rates, moving, storage..

View attachment 1317114 View attachment 1317115

Exactly. Now factor in an interest rate increase. You gained less than nothing, and are worse off than when you started.

 

[JL95]

True but I also think that the listing would reference that. And that hasn’t happened. Another developer tried to get that for the golf course (Marshall Canyon) just south of there which this property overlooks.

Just had another development like that once city over. Braswell Estates. Took out the mountain.

Brasada estates?

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

The title of thread “For the Real Estate drop in sales and price naysayer's.”

Was looking over existing home sales data from NAR for June 2022 through November 2023.
https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/defau...*14jc67j*_gcl_au*MTk4OTI4NzEwMC4xNzAzNzMxNjc3

There was definitely a drop in sales during the period. Annual sales were around five million back in June of 2022 and have since dropped to about 3.8 million.

Median price also fell about 10% within six months of this thread starting.

More importantly there was a swing from a sellers market to a buyers market for about 6 months after thread started. Actually price concessions were probably greater than 10% from most sellers when adding in closing cost concessions and seller rate buy downs in order to close deals.

I think PaPaG made a pretty good call back in June of 2022.

Just an observation. Not a 2008 crash but a buying opportunity at the expense of sellers is my take.

You realize 0 people argued that there would not be a drop in sales and dip in prices due to rising rates. Ray Charles saw that coming. What we all got wrong was how small the pricing dip actually was. It was nothing, to single digit percentages in areas most of us actually care about.

In fact most of us said we could see 2020 prices again if shit hit the fan, This was more than a 10% drop now and at the time. A 4.5% drop nationally is what actually happened.

Considering the rate increase, if you financed you are worse off buying in 2023 than you were buying at the peak 18 months ago. If you are a cash buyer you saved nothing to perhaps 10% depending on the market.

Shit never hit the fan as it relates to RE prices. Buyers capitulated and bought because the “Great deals around he corner” were never going to happen. Massive job losses he said would lead to collapsing RE prices didn’t happen.

PapaG never accepted any information that differed from what he believed. That’s why he’s abandoned defending the position, and mostly does not post in this thread any longer.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

The title of thread “For the Real Estate drop in sales and price naysayer's.”

Was looking over existing home sales data from NAR for June 2022 through November 2023.
https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/defau...*14jc67j*_gcl_au*MTk4OTI4NzEwMC4xNzAzNzMxNjc3

There was definitely a drop in sales during the period. Annual sales were around five million back in June of 2022 and have since dropped to about 3.8 million.

Median price also fell about 10% within six months of this thread starting.

More importantly there was a swing from a sellers market to a buyers market for about 6 months after thread started. Actually price concessions were probably greater than 10% from most sellers when adding in closing cost concessions and seller rate buy downs in order to close deals.

I think PaPaG made a pretty good call back in June of 2022.

Just an observation. Not a 2008 crash but a buying opportunity at the expense of sellers is my take.

Exactly. Now factor in an interest rate increase. You gained less than nothing, and are worse off than when you started.

I tend to fall into the @PaPaG camp in regard to this thread and have not changed that position. It boils down to the perception of his post. However, his post did not influence my decision-making; it only validated that someone else had a similar expectation of the market.

I read his post as meaning that the opportunity was fleeting if you wanted to make a profit and sell a home. The cycle was ending. I read it as a prediction of a turn from the seller's market we experienced to something different, not a 2008 crash. However, I not so secretly wished for a total collapse; I knew it was a slim chance. I've seen many good points made by both sides and in the end, I want to believe everyone was pretty much on the same page and that it was not going to happen overnight. Who knows, we may still see a crash someday.

We bought two houses since this thread started. I'm far better off than I was in 2021 when I sold my home in Reno for a healthy profit. Yes, my mortgage was more favorable in Reno, but the shift in the market allowed us to bump up significantly. Past results are not indicative of future gains? @LargeOrangeFont I know you are generalizing, but I disagree. There are so many different situations to consider.

Having played the game in the last three years, and not armchair quarterback virtually running hypothetical situations based on Zillow data, The market shifted in our experience in a positive manner for us to dominate in our sales and buyer roles. The cooling market paused the nonsense of bidding wars and provided time for due diligence. The perception of the market crashing by both sellers allowed us leverage to negotiate a favorable purchase price, which increased the buying power of our 20% down payment. Thankfully, we are in a position where the monthly payment is not the primary influencer in a purchase. Available cash on hand I am willing to part with was a much greater influencer than our monthly cash flow. Maybe we are idiots and should have stayed in a house we did not like, in a city we did not like, but we are happy with the choices we made so F it.

I'm hopeful we built in any further correction that may or may not come in the near future, and I think we all agree that in the long run, real estate will continue to appreciate. I expect to refinance at some point. I'm pretty sure without a life-changing event, we found our last home.

What I do know is that by the time it is evident that the market has crashed, it is unlikely most will be in a position to take advantage of it. Tightening lending and institutional investors will make it difficult for the average person to scoop up deals and take full advantage of a crash. The few that have wheelbarrows of cash they have been hoarding can say I told you so, but it is unlikely that we will ever hear a word from those people; they don't tend to brag. The best we can hope for is to play small dips in the market and pick up a few shiny pennies along the way.


Many of our friends who are in the real estate business have remained overwhelmingly bullish on RE throughout the entire turn of events. They have not waivered in their always-be-closing mindset, even while taking other jobs, downsizing, liquidating assets, or cutting back vacations. It's always a great time to buy real estate; here is my card.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I tend to fall into the @PaPaG camp in regard to this thread and have not changed that position. It boils down to the perception of his post. However, his post did not influence my decision-making; it only validated that someone else had a similar expectation of the market.

I read his post as meaning that the opportunity was fleeting if you wanted to make a profit and sell a home. The cycle was ending. I read it as a prediction of a turn from the seller's market we experienced to something different, not a 2008 crash. However, I not so secretly wished for a total collapse; I knew it was a slim chance. I've seen many good points made by both sides and in the end, I want to believe everyone was pretty much on the same page and that it was not going to happen overnight. Who knows, we may still see a crash someday.

We bought two houses since this thread started. I'm far better off than I was in 2021 when I sold my home in Reno for a healthy profit. Yes, my mortgage was more favorable in Reno, but the shift in the market allowed us to bump up significantly. Past results are not indicative of future gains? @LargeOrangeFont I know you are generalizing, but I disagree. There are so many different situations to consider.

Having played the game in the last three years, and not armchair quarterback virtually running hypothetical situations based on Zillow data, The market shifted in our experience in a positive manner for us to dominate in our sales and buyer roles. The cooling market paused the nonsense of bidding wars and provided time for due diligence. The perception of the market crashing by both sellers allowed us leverage to negotiate a favorable purchase price, which increased the buying power of our 20% down payment. Thankfully, we are in a position where the monthly payment is not the primary influencer in a purchase. Available cash on hand I am willing to part with was a much greater influencer than our monthly cash flow. Maybe we are idiots and should have stayed in a house we did not like, in a city we did not like, but we are happy with the choices we made so F it.

I'm hopeful we built in any further correction that may or may not come in the near future, and I think we all agree that in the long run, real estate will continue to appreciate. I expect to refinance at some point. I'm pretty sure without a life-changing event, we found our last home.

What I do know is that by the time it is evident that the market has crashed, it is unlikely most will be in a position to take advantage of it. Tightening lending and institutional investors will make it difficult for the average person to scoop up deals and take full advantage of a crash. The few that have wheelbarrows of cash they have been hoarding can say I told you so, but it is unlikely that we will ever hear a word from those people; they don't tend to brag. The best we can hope for is to play small dips in the market and pick up a few shiny pennies along the way.


Many of our friends who are in the real estate business have remained overwhelmingly bullish on RE throughout the entire turn of events. They have not waivered in their always-be-closing mindset, even while taking other jobs, downsizing, liquidating assets, or cutting back vacations. It's always a great time to buy real estate; here is my card.

Every situation is indeed different. I’m glad you and others moved to a place you are happy with in the short window of a very quick and shallow RE dip.

You were waiting and would have been happy to capitalize on a 2009-like drop. You waited for that until your desire to move on and buy outweighed your willingness to wait for a crash in prices. That is what most people did.

My point and challenge is simple- find anyone in this thread that said RE was not going to drop 5%. 0 people said it would be unaffected. Most of us called a return to 2020 prices the worst case doomsday scenario, and were called names when we suggested a 5-15% drop.

Keep in mind I changed my house selling and buying plans in 2022 before this and the other thread because I believed there would be a drop in prices after rates started rising. In my new neighborhood there has been no drop in prices.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Every situation is indeed different. I’m glad you and others moved to a place you are happy with in the short window of a very quick and shallow RE dip.

You were waiting and would have been happy to capitalize on a 2009-like drop. You waited for that until your desire to move on and buy outweighed your willingness to wait for a crash in prices. That is what most people did.

My point and challenge is simple- find anyone in this thread that said RE was not going to drop 5%. 0 people said it would be unaffected. Most of us called a return to 2020 prices the worst case doomsday scenario, and were called names when we suggested a 5-15% drop.

Keep in mind I changed my house selling and buying plans in 2022 before this and the other thread because I believed there would be a drop in prices after rates started rising. In my new neighborhood there has been no drop in prices.

If anyone wants to go back and comb this entire thread to prove a point, I question their sanity, but I suspect someone will. LOL. Likely, it would be subjective or out of context if found.

Playing the data won't yield the whole story, as some people could see larger or smaller price reductions based on geography. Others may argue any price reductions would be based on overly inflated asking prices, so the whole percentage-based KPI spins this thread off the rails. It was doomed from the start anyway because it was sprinkled with superfluous statements about hats.

An asking price and a selling price are two different birds. Not all states allow the sales price to be published, so I suspect the data is corrupt. For example, we realized a little over a 25% reduction in the purchase price vs. the listing price, and that does not account for negotiating the furniture and everything (I mean everything) in the house at the time of showing. The seller just wanted out of it.

Undoubtedly, some markets remained hot and will continue to be a better investment than others. That said, I wish I had stepped outside my geographic bubble when I was younger and understood the value of purchasing an investment property in rural communities outside California. I'm trying to teach my kids that lesson. There is a big world outside that sunny golden state, and it has much to offer.

 

[ChumpChange]

Brasada estates?

Yeah that’s what I meant.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

If anyone wants to go back and comb this entire thread to prove a point, I question their sanity, but I suspect someone will. LOL. Likely, it would be subjective or out of context if found.

Playing the data won't yield the whole story, as some people could see larger or smaller price reductions based on geography. Others may argue any price reductions would be based on overly inflated asking prices, so the whole percentage-based KPI spins this thread off the rails. It was doomed from the start anyway because it was sprinkled with superfluous statements about hats.

An asking price and a selling price are two different birds. Not all states allow the sales price to be published, so I suspect the data is corrupt. For example, we realized a little over a 25% reduction in the purchase price vs. the listing price, and that does not account for negotiating the furniture and everything (I mean everything) in the house at the time of showing. The seller just wanted out of it.

Undoubtedly, some markets remained hot and will continue to be a better investment than others. That said, I wish I had stepped outside my geographic bubble when I was younger and understood the value of purchasing an investment property in rural communities outside California. I'm trying to teach my kids that lesson. There is a big world outside that sunny golden state, and it has much to offer.

I would say go read page 1 including post 1, and the context is right there. The opinion is/was based on pending and impending job losses that would create deals for RE buyers and to sell whatever you were considering selling right then. It was not nuanced by geography, market or region.

The firing of a few mortgage brokers, and people from Redfin didn’t do anything meaningful to housing prices. We can see that now.

I 100% agree asking price is not selling price. Some people feel good about a discount off asking, even when the asking price was outlandish to begin with. Some are at the right place at the right time and get a deal. Some are in a market that may have been more impacted than others.

Claiming victory because home prices in Duluth or some other small market dropped 15% while prices in all of the southwestern US containing 10% of the US population barely registered a negative move shows how weak the argument was to begin with.

When you only accept the data that agrees with your beliefs, and call everything else invalid, you are forced to abandon ship if you don’t change course.

 

[JL95]

Yeah that’s what I meant.

nice we have that cabinet contract. Nice homes for sure.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

I would say go read page 1 including post 1, and the context is right there. The opinion is/was based on pending and impending job losses that would create deals for RE buyers and to sell whatever you were considering selling right then. It was not nuanced by geography, market or region.

The firing of a few mortgage brokers, and people from Redfin didn’t do anything meaningful to housing prices. We can see that now.

I 100% agree asking price is not selling price. Some people feel good about a discount off asking, even when the asking price was outlandish to begin with. Some are at the right place at the right time and get a deal. Some are in a market that may have been more impacted than others.

Claiming victory because home prices in Duluth or some other small market dropped 15% while prices in all of the southwestern US containing 10% of the US population barely registered a negative move shows how weak the argument was to begin with.

When you only accept the data that agrees with your beliefs, and call everything else invalid, you are forced to abandon ship if you don’t change course.

Ha ha, you assume people care about situations outside their bubble. I don't really give two shits about the plight of people in general. The nature of statistics is to use the data that supports one's own belief. Cmon Man. LOL

JP Morgan Chase just announced a layoff of at least 1000 people and more to come due to the drastic drop in both housing purchases credited to CRAZY HOUSING MARKET slowing correcting and the doubling of interest rates..Redfin, Realtor.com did the same...YOU'VE seen Nothing YET.......if you planned on selling I hope you got it done or soon...if not expect some changes very soon. On the other hand, if you are a potential cash buyer TONS of great opportunities around the corner and from what I am guessing another 2 years of downturn and great prices to start very soon....

JP Morgan Chase just announced a layoff of at least 1000 people and more to come due to the drastic drop in both housing purchases credited to CRAZY HOUSING MARKET slowing correcting and the doubling of interest rates..Redfin, Realtor.com did the same...

True or false? I "think" a true statement. The inflated, get-rich-quick part-time RE and associated industry workers have gone searching for other opportunities.At least the ones I know, including my brother who went from baller to working at Panda Express trying to juggle his debt while he waits greedily for a rebound so he can sell the mansion he built and timed poorly.

YOU'VE seen Nothing YET..
This was a bridge too far.

if you planned on selling I hope you got it done or soon...if not expect some changes very soon.
True or false? There certainly seems to have been some impact on people looking to sell from the people lined up and bidding wars, with the exception of specific high-demand markets like Beach Cities in SoCa. I would say True.

On the other hand, if you are a potential cash buyer TONS of great opportunities around the corner and from what I am guessing another 2 years of downturn and great prices to start very soon....

True or False? In my experience, it is accurate. I got a great price on two different homes. I'm pretty sure I could get another great deal if I had the reserves to meet the 20% down and could qualify for another mortgage today, or better yet, Cash as he said. I have my eye on a commercial property right now. If I could figure out what to do with it I would likely give up my Snowbird lifestyle so I could assume the risk.


Some of you guys gave @PaPaG a boatload of shit for making this prediction and then subjectively put a spin on what he was saying based on perception. As you said, @LargeOrangeFont, Ray Charles could have seen this coming. It's not that bold of a prediction when you break it down. It got squirrelly when people got offended and started doubling down.

It has been fun debating, however.

 

[530RL]

If the owners spent the last 6 years getting the property entitled for 200+ homes, their asking price is not far off.

It took our group over 12 years to do Esperanza Hills. I doubt an entitlement of that size could be done in California in 6 years today given the CEQA requirements and timelines?

 

[DrunkenSailor]

Office values are only partly through their decline, and more properties could sink by over 50%, real estate expert says

"I think you're probably going to see some headlines that are even more severe than that," a real estate expert said on Wednesday.

markets.businessinsider.com

This is where the pain will be coming from..it will trickle down through lending. The bank exposure is huge. I have said it again and again it's not residential it's commercial.

 

[hallett21]

Office values are only partly through their decline, and more properties could sink by over 50%, real estate expert says

"I think you're probably going to see some headlines that are even more severe than that," a real estate expert said on Wednesday.

markets.businessinsider.com

This is where the pain will be coming from..it will trickle down through lending. The bank exposure is huge. I have said it again and again it's not residential it's commercial.

I don’t disagree but I feel like we’ve been hearing this for more than 5 years. How are they kicking the can down the road?

Ha ha, you assume people care about situations outside their bubble. I don't really give two shits about the plight of people in general. The nature of statistics is to use the data that supports one's own belief. Cmon Man. LOL


JP Morgan Chase just announced a layoff of at least 1000 people and more to come due to the drastic drop in both housing purchases credited to CRAZY HOUSING MARKET slowing correcting and the doubling of interest rates..Redfin, Realtor.com did the same...

True or false? I "think" a true statement. The inflated, get-rich-quick part-time RE and associated industry workers have gone searching for other opportunities.At least the ones I know, including my brother who went from baller to working at Panda Express trying to juggle his debt while he waits greedily for a rebound so he can sell the mansion he built and timed poorly.

YOU'VE seen Nothing YET..
This was a bridge too far.

if you planned on selling I hope you got it done or soon...if not expect some changes very soon.
True or false? There certainly seems to have been some impact on people looking to sell from the people lined up and bidding wars, with the exception of specific high-demand markets like Beach Cities in SoCa. I would say True.

On the other hand, if you are a potential cash buyer TONS of great opportunities around the corner and from what I am guessing another 2 years of downturn and great prices to start very soon....

True or False? In my experience, it is accurate. I got a great price on two different homes. I'm pretty sure I could get another great deal if I had the reserves to meet the 20% down and could qualify for another mortgage today, or better yet, Cash as he said. I have my eye on a commercial property right now. If I could figure out what to do with it I would likely give up my Snowbird lifestyle so I could assume the risk.


Some of you guys gave @PaPaG a boatload of shit for making this prediction and then subjectively put a spin on what he was saying based on perception. As you said, @LargeOrangeFont, Ray Charles could have seen this coming. It's not that bold of a prediction when you break it down. It got squirrelly when people got offended and started doubling down.

It has been fun debating, however.

I think the only “winners” would be people who sold properties with no mortgages and then bought at the dip, all cash. The moment you factor in rates any gains are wiped out.

By the time you factor in commissions, moving, etc I’m not sure you’re any better off than renting the house out. Im speaking from a strictly dollars and cents standpoint.

Quality of life etc is a whole different thing.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

I don’t disagree but I feel like we’ve been hearing this for more than 5 years. How are they kicking the can down the road?


I think the only “winners” would be people who sold properties with no mortgages and then bought at the dip, all cash. The moment you factor in rates any gains are wiped out.

By the time you factor in commissions, moving, etc I’m not sure you’re any better off than renting the house out. Im speaking from a strictly dollars and cents standpoint.

Quality of life etc is a whole different thing.

They have been able to refinance the debt previously. That ended this year and the chickens are roosting.

 

[hallett21]

They have been able to refinance the debt previously. That ended this year and the chickens are roosting.

Could you make the argument that is why the FED plans on lowering rates in 24?

Trying to keep the ship afloat?

Looks like a typical commercial real estate loan is a 5,7 or 10 year loan with a balloon. If they refinanced between 19-20 they’re good until 25 at a minimum.