For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[DRYHEAT]

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Looks like the way I buy stock sometimes.

 

[530RL]

Today's data

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-annual-inflation-slows-further-below-3-november-2023-12-22/

 

[THE WIDGE]

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Very true! I know that guy too well, just recorded yesterday

 

[LuauLounge]

It’s amazing how history repeats itself, yet it’s like OMG, how’d this happen?
In my lifetime, housing has gone in +\-10 cycles. Don’t get caught at the wrong end at the wrong time.

 

[hallett21]

Well we hit 18 months lol

 

[EmpirE231]

Just based off my small time view... everyone who has bought in my neighborhood in the last 2-3 years doe s not seem like they are flush with cash or doing well at all (just observation from looking at their landscaping alone) They're all trying to find creative ways to cashflow their properties... ADU's, event rental etc etc. One guy even parked a shitty trailer on his side lot to maybe collect IDK... 50-75 bucks a month in storage fees?

I still believe most who have bought in the last 2-3 years are strapped. Unless they are of the boomer generations.

Lets keep this financial dumpster fire going!

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Just based off my small time view... everyone who has bought in my neighborhood in the last 2-3 years doe s not seem like they are flush with cash or doing well at all (just observation from looking at their landscaping alone) They're all trying to find creative ways to cashflow their properties... ADU's, event rental etc etc. One guy even parked a shitty trailer on his side lot to maybe collect IDK... 50-75 bucks a month in storage fees?

I still believe most who have bought in the last 2-3 years are strapped. Unless they are of the boomer generations.

Lets keep this financial dumpster fire going!

When you buy your first house you probably are strapped.

The problem is that there are not enough of them to begin with to tank housing prices as the OP and others have predicted. When they lower rates, all these people that bought in the last 18 months are gonna refinance anyway, and if the economy picks up steam because of lower rates, push the dumpster down the road another 18 months .

 

[BHC Vic]

To me it doesn’t really matter who’s right or wrong. I’m scared for my kids and even more scared for their kids. This is a very scary time and can’t keep going like this. Every civilization has fallen and there’s been a reset. History repeats itself its only matter of time. My goal in life is to get each one of my kids their first home. It’s not going to be easy but I feel like it’s the only way they’ll have a chance

 

[HNL2LHC]

You will own it but we will tell you how much money you can make off your risk and investment. If you don’t we will just force you to do so….

 

[c_land]

When you buy your first house you probably are strapped.

The problem is that there are not enough of them to begin with to tank housing prices as the OP and others have predicted. When they lower rates, all these people that bought in the last 18 months are gonna refinance anyway, and if the economy picks up steam because of lower rates, push the dumpster down the road another 18 months .

I don't think there are many first-time buyers in his neighborhood....

The falling prices story has been over since spring. The interest rate shock is over, we need some other event to pump some life back into this thread

 

[LuauLounge]

To me it doesn’t really matter who’s right or wrong. I’m scared for my kids and even more scared for their kids. This is a very scary time and can’t keep going like this. Every civilization has fallen and there’s been a reset. History repeats itself its only matter of time. My goal in life is to get each one of my kids their first home. It’s not going to be easy but I feel like it’s the only way they’ll have a chance

Sounds like something my father would say in the ‘50’s. He paid $7,200 for his house on a 1/3 acre and payments were $70.
My first house in the 70’s was $36k and my payments were $306.
Have no kids, but most of them will make it through, some won’t.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I don't think there are many first-time buyers in his neighborhood....

The falling prices story has been over since spring. The interest rate shock is over, we need some other event to pump some life back into this thread

Be careful, someone will bring in more FACTS and tell you yore wrong.

Most every first time home buyer looking to buy my house was ready to spend $1M… it’s a weird world out there.

If you bought in the last 2 years, specifically in the last 18 months, you did so out of some necessity I’d think? Job, changing houses, not wanting to rent, moving up houses, whatever.

No one is dropping into cheaper a
housing for a higher rate or 30 year payment.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

You will own it but we will tell you how much money you can make off your risk and investment. If you don’t we will just force you to do so….

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Coming to a blue state near you!

 

[BHC Vic]

Interesting about people upsizing after retirement but very true

 

[EmpirE231]

When you buy your first house you probably are strapped.

The problem is that there are not enough of them to begin with to tank housing prices as the OP and others have predicted. When they lower rates, all these people that bought in the last 18 months are gonna refinance anyway, and if the economy picks up steam because of lower rates, push the dumpster down the road another 18 months .

most aren't first time buyers

I definitely was strapped on the first time home buy, even the 2nd time home buy... but always did improvements to the home etc. From my observation, most of these new buyers are trying to find ways to cashflow their mortgage that they can't afford on their own, by turning their garage into an ADU, renting out storage space etc, all while their yards look like crap etc. Unless we are in very different times and people aren't into HGTV anymore.... most people wanted their place to look nice.

My neighborhood historically has been just single family residences, with just single families living there.... until recently. From reading between the lines, I just think most of these people can't really afford what they bought, and are trying to "hustle" to keep it. Long story short I think there are a LOT of people in this scenario (not just my neighborhood alone)

will housing drop significantly? who knows with all this funny money / fed interference.... but at the end of the day, our dollar has already tanked. It's not like housing went up, but the value of our dollar stayed strong. If the fed did the right thing to fight inflation and continued raising rates, I think we would have started to see some decline in the housing market. But the days of sound money, and smart financial moves are over for the fed.

 

[hallett21]

Assuming you have the cash to afford the ADU construction, you can pretty much recoup your initial (strictly rental income and no equity gain) within 5 years or less. Assuming it’s a garage conversion.

Ground up would be closer to 10 years.

I think the real money is renting out your 2018-2020 mortgage with an ADU or 2 on the property. Conservatively you’re taking a property that costs $3,500 a month all in and netting an additional $2,500.

With signed leases you’re able to borrow against a cash flowing property with significantly more equity than when you first bought.

None of this matter if you make no money and can’t afford to water the front lawn. That’s a whole different issue.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

most aren't first time buyers

I definitely was strapped on the first time home buy, even the 2nd time home buy... but always did improvements to the home etc. From my observation, most of these new buyers are trying to find ways to cashflow their mortgage that they can't afford on their own, by turning their garage into an ADU, renting out storage space etc, all while their yards look like crap etc. Unless we are in very different times and people aren't into HGTV anymore.... most people wanted their place to look nice.

My neighborhood historically has been just single family residences, with just single families living there.... until recently. From reading between the lines, I just think most of these people can't really afford what they bought, and are trying to "hustle" to keep it. Long story short I think there are a LOT of people in this scenario (not just my neighborhood alone)

will housing drop significantly? who knows with all this funny money / fed interference.... but at the end of the day, our dollar has already tanked. It's not like housing went up, but the value of our dollar stayed strong. If the fed did the right thing to fight inflation and continued raising rates, I think we would have started to see some decline in the housing market. But the days of sound money, and smart financial moves are over for the fed.

It is also a different mindset. We are in a different era now, people will also move more frequently. If you believe the value is just going to go up over time, why do anything to the house if it functions? If you are going to monetize the property through rent, ADU or storage, why improve it? Why maintain it?

If they don’t have the capital or desire to outlay the money, there is no ROI for improvements or upkeep in that hustle ownership model, certainly if they aren’t planning to stay there for a long time.

I’m speaking of people that recently purchased here, not those with a low rate and equity.

The days of the Fed making sound decisions were over when we were kids. Artificially low rates for 12 year was not a sound decision either, but it benefited consumers, so no one cared.

As I said at the beginning of this thread and before. Housing ain’t dropping significantly until people lose jobs. A lot of people. And the people with the low rates will hold onto those properties for dear life.

All that does is put upward pressure on prices.

 

[BHC Vic]

Assuming you have the cash to afford the ADU construction, you can pretty much recoup your initial (strictly rental income and no equity gain) within 5 years or less. Assuming it’s a garage conversion.

Ground up would be closer to 10 years.

I think the real money is renting out your 2018-2020 mortgage with an ADU or 2 on the property. Conservatively you’re taking a property that costs $3,500 a month all in and netting an additional $2,500.

With signed leases you’re able to borrow against a cash flowing property with significantly more equity than when you first bought.

None of this matter if you make no money and can’t afford to water the front lawn. That’s a whole different issue.

I absolutely hate that people can build adu’s in Norco now thanks to Newsom. Completely ruining what this town is all about. It’s sad.

 

[EmpirE231]

Assuming you have the cash to afford the ADU construction, you can pretty much recoup your initial (strictly rental income and no equity gain) within 5 years or less. Assuming it’s a garage conversion.

Ground up would be closer to 10 years.

I think the real money is renting out your 2018-2020 mortgage with an ADU or 2 on the property. Conservatively you’re taking a property that costs $3,500 a month all in and netting an additional $2,500.

With signed leases you’re able to borrow against a cash flowing property with significantly more equity than when you first bought.

None of this matter if you make no money and can’t afford to water the front lawn. That’s a whole different issue.

hey man... we're sick and tired of living in apartments.... lets buy a small house and turn it into a mini shitty apartment complex lol

 

[hallett21]

I absolutely hate that people can build adu’s in Norco now thanks to Newsom. Completely ruining what this town is all about. It’s sad.

Agreed. But then what do you do? Let all the neighbors get away with it and get left behind?

I’m not advocating for that as my wife and I are looking to just buy a decent amount of property with a 1,700 sq ft house and garage.

But I’m kind of an idiot to not pursue squeezing every nickel out of our current home.

Which is sad because it’s turning society against it self. Screw up your old neighborhood so you can go buy the home you want.

 

[hallett21]

hey man... we're sick and tired of living in apartments.... lets buy a small house and turn it into a mini shitty apartment complex lol

Sir it’s called a bungalow

It even comes with a hot plate!

 

[BHC Vic]

Agreed. But then what do you do? Let all the neighbors get away with it and get left behind?

I’m not advocating for that as my wife and I are looking to just buy a decent amount of property with a 1,700 sq ft house and garage.

But I’m kind of an idiot to not pursue squeezing every nickel out of our current home.

Which is sad because it’s turning society against it self. Screw up your old neighborhood so you can go buy the home you want.

People don’t care. It’s like members bragging about selling their houses to the highest bidder who turned it into a baby manufacturing plant and then come on here and brag about it. That video I posted hits a lot of different things. I bought property because I wanted the space. I don’t want to share this space with anyone and I don’t care if they pay. Kind of like the lake house. We could rent it out but we don’t want to. Everyone’s situations are different though and I can’t knock someone for doing what’s best for them.

 

[EmpirE231]

Agreed. But then what do you do? Let all the neighbors get away with it and get left behind?

I’m not advocating for that as my wife and I are looking to just buy a decent amount of property with a 1,700 sq ft house and garage.

But I’m kind of an idiot to not pursue squeezing every nickel out of our current home.

Which is sad because it’s turning society against it self. Screw up your old neighborhood so you can go buy the home you want.

but then you buy the home you want... and those neighbors turn that neighborhood into a ran down apartment complex

It is definitely working against itself. Destroys most neighborhoods and does nothing to help with "affordable housing". I am surprised it has not been overturned, but there is too much tax money in it for the cities to fight it, so the tax whores let it burn.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

but then you buy the home you want... and those neighbors turn that neighborhood into a ran down apartment complex

It is definitely working against itself. Destroys most neighborhoods and does nothing to help with "affordable housing". I am surprised it has not been overturned, but there is too much tax money in it for the cities to fight it, so the tax whores let it burn.

It will never be overturned. The goal in CA is the destruction of suburban life. And if you want to keep that lifestyle they will tax you into oblivion for the right to keep it.

If you don’t do it, everyone around you will anyway, and what are you left with? What did you even fight for?

 

[EmpirE231]

People don’t care. It’s like members bragging about selling their houses to the highest bidder who turned it into a baby manufacturing plant and then come on here and brag about it. That video I posted hits a lot of different things. I bought property because I wanted the space. I don’t want to share this space with anyone and I don’t care if they pay. Kind of like the lake house. We could rent it out but we don’t want to. Everyone’s situations are different though and I can’t knock someone for doing what’s best for them.

it's wild what people do now. My mindset was the same when we bought our place... I wanted this space, for my family. Heck I want more space now.

met one of my neighbors down the street who recently bought, talking like he's a big shot.... "all the finest finishes" into his remodel... "ceiling fans are 1k each" etc etc, then goes on to tell me that he already has drawn up plans to split his property to add and ADU. Same guy who parked someone's old travel trailer to collect some rent. He had put in 4-5 sheds in the back, you can tell he was planning on renting out, but everyone called code enforcement on him, which halted those plans. Anyway he was considering selling at one point.... he said because he wanted more space! wants a ranch lol. Sure Mr. big shot.... more space, but lets chop up the space you have here to get that cashflow lol

 

[hallett21]

it's wild what people do now. My mindset was the same when we bought our place... I wanted this space, for my family. Heck I want more space now.

met one of my neighbors down the street who recently bought, talking like he's a big shot.... "all the finest finishes" into his remodel... "ceiling fans are 1k each" etc etc, then goes on to tell me that he already has drawn up plans to split his property to add and ADU. Same guy who parked someone's old travel trailer to collect some rent. He had put in 4-5 sheds in the back, you can tell he was planning on renting out, but everyone called code enforcement on him, which halted those plans. Anyway he was considering selling at one point.... he said because he wanted more space! wants a ranch lol. Sure Mr. big shot.... more space, but lets chop up the space you have here to get that cashflow lol

Lol renting sheds is next level.

 

[HNL2LHC]

Coming to a blue state near you!

Can’t let a crisis go to waste.

 

[BHC Vic]

Lol renting sheds is next level.

In Bakersfield I’ve seen people renting out old 18wheeler sleeper cabs

 

[bonesfab]

In Bakersfield I’ve seen people renting out old 18wheeler sleeper cabs

I always wanted an old caboose for a guest house.

 

[HTMike]

In Bakersfield I’ve seen people renting out old 18wheeler sleeper cabs

Society is so fucked, LMAO.

Someone should start renting tents in their back yard.

 

[hallett21]

Society is so fucked, LMAO.

Someone should start renting tents in their back yard.

They already do for a few hundred a night lol. Look up safari tents and yurts on air bnb.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Society is so fucked, LMAO.

Someone should start renting tents in their back yard.

They already do for a few hundred a night lol. Look up safari tents and yurts on air bnb.

People rent the derelict RVs parked in the streets to vagrants.

 

[FCT]

People rent the derelict RVs parked in the streets to vagrants.

I have heard that’s a huge thing with the cartels. Idk the truth behind that

 

[Go-Fly]

Boy did I get the 2023 housing market wrong. I cant believe what is going on and how people think this is good money spent.

 

[Havasu Rehab]

I have heard that’s a huge thing with the cartels. Idk the truth behind that

Probably some truth to it. I’m sure some local gangsters either rent them or “tax” the renters. Then in-turn kick the money up to the cartel.

 

[NicPaus]

Boy did I get the 2023 housing market wrong. I cant believe what is going on and how people think this is good money spent.

I have always been against renting. Best to buy. But a few examples recently I think rent might be better option.

BiL good friend bought in old Torrance around the corner from my old house 2 1 bed 1 bath on a lot. Both currently getting gutted. Mortgage payment + tax $7,400 going to rent 1.

2 bed 2 bath not far from me in Lomita. They just closed 2 weeks ago. $6,400 putting 50k into before move in.

Both in there 30s.

 

[Cdog]

I have always been against renting. Best to buy. But a few examples recently I think rent might be better option.

BiL good friend bought in old Torrance around the corner from my old house 2 1 bed 1 bath on a lot. Both currently getting gutted. Mortgage payment + tax $7,400 going to rent 1.

2 bed 2 bath not far from me in Lomita. They just closed 2 weeks ago. $6,400 putting 50k into before move in.

Both in there 30s.

Damn that’s crazy. Never understood the appeal of the South Bay at the going rate. Family still there and they talk like they could never leave.

But I became an outsider once my mom moved us to Anaheim hills when I was 10.

 

[NicPaus]

Damn that’s crazy. Never understood the appeal of the South Bay at the going rate. Family still there and they talk like they could never leave.

But I became an outsider once my mom moved us to Anaheim hills when I was 10.

I could leave. But I don't think I have the motivation to start over. Took 10 years of my life to establish my business. Now the work just keeps coming. If I moved I would buy out a established company instead of starting over.

 

[Cdog]

I could leave. But I don't think I have the motivation to start over. Took 10 years of my life to establish my business. Now the work just keeps coming. If I moved I would buy out an established company instead of starting over.

I’d have you so busy in Scottsdale you’d be begging for a day off.

You could afford a big ass house with a shop and room to park all that shit. Lmk when you’re ready. SoCal is only 5 hours away if you get up early enough.

 

[HNL2LHC]

I could leave. But I don't think I have the motivation to start over. Took 10 years of my life to establish my business. Now the work just keeps coming. If I moved I would buy out an established company instead of starting over.

I hear you as I am in the same position. You just have to find the way to keep your foot on the throttle in the profitable location and step out every chance that you get. Working on someone as your right hand man allowing more time away. I have a friend that put himself in that exact position. It is doable for sure.

 

[Go-Fly]

I'm not even

I have always been against renting. Best to buy. But a few examples recently I think rent might be better option.

BiL good friend bought in old Torrance around the corner from my old house 2 1 bed 1 bath on a lot. Both currently getting gutted. Mortgage payment + tax $7,400 going to rent 1.

2 bed 2 bath not far from me in Lomita. They just closed 2 weeks ago. $6,400 putting 50k into before move in.

Both in there 30s.

I'm not sure where to go with that. If you can cover $88k a year, not a problem. Money is still money and it only works one way and this is not it.

 

[Cdog]

I hear you as I am in the same position. You just have to find the way to keep your foot on the throttle in the profitable location and step out every chance that you get. Working on someone as your right hand man allowing more time away. I have a friend that put himself in that exact position. It is doable for sure.

Having some kind of network where you’re going is huge too. Something I pretty much had to create on my own when I moved out here from OC in 2007.

 

[Cdog]

I'm not even

I'm not sure where to go with that. If you can cover $88k a year, not a problem. Money is still money and it only works one way and this is not it.

Are lay offs or recessions a thing of the past? Shit I know most of us have been there assessing our worst case scenario. It was a lot easier scraping together and mortgage payment when it was 1- $2000 a month. hell California unemployment last time I had a couple months off was early 2000s and it was 1850 a month. can you imagine trying to scrape together 7- $8000 while being unemployed?

 

[PaPaG]

I always wanted an old caboose for a guest house.

My wife watches a show called brigerton or something close to that, set in the late 1800 from what I can tell, she called me into the room when one of the powerful rich guys was in his train and said IS THIS WHAT YOU WANT? i said YES! I told her if we had the room I would be buying one of those old cabooses and making my mancave they are so cool looking when done up. Do a 1 bedroom, 1 bath and the rest just old school. And yes after that I started watching with her.

 

[BHC Vic]

My wife watches a show called brigerton or something close to that, set in the late 1800 from what I can tell, she called me into the room when one of the powerful rich guys was in his train and said IS THIS WHAT YOU WANT? i said YES! I told her if we had the room I would be buying one of those old cabooses and making my mancave they are so cool looking when done up. Do a 1 bedroom, 1 bath and the rest just old school. And yes after that I started watching with her.
View attachment 1315504

My grandma moved to Hesperia in the late 90’s. The house behind her across the wash has a red one parked in the yard. I was really little and don’t remember the story or what the inside looked like. I remember goi g over once but it was to play basketball with their grandkids

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I'm not even

I'm not sure where to go with that. If you can cover $88k a year, not a problem. Money is still money and it only works one way and this is not it.

The angle is appreciation best I can tell. If the past is an indicator of the future, they will be OK if they don’t hit any speed bumps with income.

At this point in my like I’d rather buy 4 properties outside CA to cover that nut.

 

[BHC Vic]

How come no one lives in apartments anymore? My wife and I’s first place was an apartment in Fullerton. I honestly don’t know anyone that lives in an apartment. I don’t even really hear of any of my apprentices living in apartments

 

[Cdog]

How come no one lives in apartments anymore? My wife and I’s first place was an apartment in Fullerton. I honestly don’t know anyone that lives in an apartment. I don’t even really hear of any of my apprentices living in apartments

It's our age. We're the old dudes the younger crowd hates on now holding resources . Ivory towers and such.....How do you say that in Spanish? LMFAO!

 

[hallett21]

How come no one lives in apartments anymore? My wife and I’s first place was an apartment in Fullerton. I honestly don’t know anyone that lives in an apartment. I don’t even really hear of any of my apprentices living in apartments

Wife and I lived in 2 different apartments in Pasadena from 16-18. For us it was a requirement that we had gated underground parking with elevators to our floor. With my wife working nights I didn’t want her walking streets at night.

But your right, friends from age 25-35 are all living in town houses or condos if they’re renting.

Honestly LA “area” apartments that are available are either luxury or pretty ghetto. I think you get a lot more bang for your buck renting the condo/townhouse. Privacy and a yard being a big factor.

A big way to get these new apartment buildings off the ground is to include low income housing. I can’t remember the required percentage.

So imagine dropping $2,500+ a month (at an apartment) and having less than desirable neighbors, car break ins, a lot of unwanted “guests” at the pool on a Saturday etc.

 

[hallett21]

Here’s a 700sq ft 1b/1b apartment by us. Notice it’s a loft, so probably 400sq ft of down stairs? 17month lease required for that price as well.

Avalon Woodland Hills | AvalonBay Communities

www.avaloncommunities.com

This one is a 6 month old building across from Topanga outdoor mall. From here you are 3 miles from multi million dollar mansions and 3 miles from homeless and gangs.

https://www.theqtopanga.com/floorplans/a-two