For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[LargeOrangeFont]

I hadn’t even heard rumors of this happening. My phone buzzed with the update and I was shocked.

To this point in American history no president has been successfully impeached right? Nixon included.

It’s just an inquiry.

 

[angiebaby]

I hadn’t even heard rumors of this happening. My phone buzzed with the update and I was shocked.

To this point in American history no president has been successfully impeached right? Nixon included.

Impeached merely means put on trial. It does not mean removed from office, which would take a conviction from the Senate. So yes, three presidents have been impeached.

Andrew Johnson was acquitted by one vote.
Bill Clinton was acquitted by a lot more than that.
I don't even know the vote for Trumps two impeachments.

Nixon resigned before he was impeached, but likely would have been convicted.

No president has been removed from office by way of impeachment trial.

 

[monkeyswrench]

Wish I would have started home ownership earlier….

View attachment 1312594

Barely old enough to drink when I bought my first house in 1999. I've only made a few smart decisions in my life, that was one of them. Getting married to the right girl was the next...
OK, 2 smart decisions...that's all I got.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Already have some refinances cooking with where rates are. Told a few to hold off and don't get too anxious.


This thread sure has aged well as we are definitely looking at another uptick in RE. Will that solve the inventory problem or will people continue to hold their low rates forever? Going to be interesting going into the new year and beyond.

 

[El Rojo]

Interesting times going on right now for sure...13 straight years of appreciation in real estate and nothing has seemed has to change the momentum , at least here in OC. Sure inventory has been low, sales too, but prices have remained pretty steady, and growing. With the DOW passing a new high and talks of FED rates cuts next year, this shit is primed for a new stupid...Those who predicted a change in the economy because of the election year may have an "I told you so!" moment real soon...

 

[Boatymcboatface]

A couple younger families I know bought in the last 6 months with large down payments and parents helping pay up to $2000 a month towards the mortgage for them.

Crazy times for sure.

 

[bonesfab]

I have two four seaters and one Diablo

That’s not broke. That’s shit rich and cash poor. That’s what I call it anyway. Live it everyday.

 

[jet496]

Already have some refinances cooking with where rates are. Told a few to hold off and don't get too anxious.


This thread sure has aged well as we are definitely looking at another uptick in RE. Will that solve the inventory problem or will people continue to hold their low rates forever? Going to be interesting going into the new year and beyond.

The inventory problem will not get better anytime soon since it seems like everybody wants to be a landlord now. It used to be you sold a house & then bought another. But now, like we did years ago, you rent your house that's paid off or has a low mortgage & buy another. Why not? You have income property plus it appreciates. Then you keep doing that until you have 5, 10 or more houses. This to me is our biggest inventory problem along with investment companies doing the same.

The new housing world will be 10% landlords, making bank, & 90% renters for life.

 

[DWC]

this shit is primed for a new stupid..

Quote of the thread. It’s gonna be ridiculous

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

The inventory problem will not get better anytime soon since it seems like everybody's wants to be a landlord now. It used to be you sold a house & then bought another. But now, like we did years ago, you rent your house that's paid off, or low mortgage, & moved to another. Why not? You have income property plus it appreciates. BThen you keep doing that until you have 5, 10 or more houses raking in cash & appreciating same time. This to me is our biggest inventory problem along with investment companies doing the same.

The new housing world will be 10% landlords, making bank, & 90% renters for life.

Agree 100% with this. Have a few buyers who are departing residences that they bought in the 2013-2018 time and renting out. With the loan limits going up so high, they can move up with minimal money down and have half the new mortgage payment covered by rent from the other property. I am about 5 years away from that but will be downsizing.

 

[HTMike]

Top 10 bottom 90, here we come !

 

[hallett21]

Top 10 bottom 90, here we come !

Soooo how’s it going

 

[HTMike]

Soooo how’s it going

I'm fine. Its my kids I worry about.

 

[hallett21]

I'm fine. Its my kids I worry about.

Was just having a little fun. I’m with you. You can only fly so close to the sun.

 

[DWC]

On a side note, my oldest just bought his first place in Kentucky. A little over $200k on 4 acres. 80 year old home with new plumbing/electrical. Bummed he wanted to leave home but i 100% get it. Wife is heading out for a week to help get them settled.

 

[hallett21]

On a side note, my oldest just bought his first place in Kentucky. A little over $200k on 4 acres. 80 year old home with new plumbing/electrical. Bummed he wanted to leave home but i 100% get it. Wife is heading out for a week to help get them settled.


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That’s insane!!

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

On a side note, my oldest just bought his first place in Kentucky. A little over $200k on 4 acres. 80 year old home with new plumbing/electrical. Bummed he wanted to leave home but i 100% get it. Wife is heading out for a week to help get them settled.


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Since you are redirecting your energy now, did you buy him an electric riding mower as a housewarming gift?

 

[CSmith]

So where are rates at right now, and next, where are we anticipating to see then fall?
Sorry if it was already mentioned..

 

[240Hallett]

That’s insane!!

I would imagine the people in Kentucky look at California real estate, and think the same thing.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

Meanwhile the commercial real estate bloodbath continues with another building selling for half of what it was purchased for.

Orange County Office Sells at a 43% Loss

A half-mile road in Santa Ana has hosted some significantly discounted office transactions this year

commercialobserver.com

With the new fed dot plot released yesterday rates are coming down. The bond market is reacting stupidly as expected with the yield on the two year dropping 40bps in 24 hours.

 

[DWC]

Since you are redirecting your energy now, did you buy him an electric riding mower as a housewarming gift?

. We helped a bit. It’ll be interesting to see what that help turns into.

 

[DWC]

I would imagine the people in Kentucky look at California real estate, and think the same thing.

They absolutely do. When our daughter in law came out here for the first time she was absolutely shocked at how much houses cost and even more so on the size of the lots.

 

[DWC]

Meanwhile the commercial real estate bloodbath continues with another building selling for half of what it was purchased for.

It’ll be interesting to see what happens in the next 10 years with commercial RE. Our office in OC was sharing with a few call centers and FBI. The call center people haven’t been there since Covid. 90% of the space has been taken up by City/County of Orange.

 

[c_land]

Feds held the interest rate at 5.5% today and they are planning on rate cuts next year. I think real estate is going to go crazy. All the people on the sidelines are going to buy now because when rates go down, prices will go up even more. They figure they will refinance at that time. Just my opinion. It's good to be a homeowner right now.

 

[bentprops]

View attachment 1312799

Just FYI the stock market falls on average 28% when they cut rates. They cut rates starting in 2006. How did that work out for housing?

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Just FYI the stock market falls on average 28% when they cut rates. They cut rates starting in 2006. How did that work out for housing?

Seemed to have worked out amazing. Check prices between 2006 and today.

 

[cofooter]

Just FYI the stock market falls on average 28% when they cut rates. They cut rates starting in 2006. How did that work out for housing?

Usually the rate cuts coincide with a recession which is why the markets fall, be interesting to see what happens with rate cuts and no recession. Not aware of seeing that scenario before

 

[HNL2LHC]

They absolutely do. When our daughter in law came out here for the first time she was absolutely shocked at how much houses cost and even more so on the size of the lots.

Looks like the kids have a great start. As for the $$$ of things in different places. We always grab home flyers and magazines in each place that we traveled. It is interesting to see what home prices get you as well as the tax rates. I always look at it and think oh my that would be great to have a home that costs 50% of CA or HI. Now looking back at our 30+ years of homeownership in HI and friends/siblings in other states. I have to say that it was the best move to tough it out and pay the higher price. It allowed us the opportunity to choose any place that we wanted to retire in. Where those that escaped or rented most of their life they really have limited options as to where they can afford to live.

 

[bentprops]

Seemed to have worked out amazing. Check prices between 2006 and today.

The housing market took a big crap once they started cutting rates in 2006 but heck lets play your game.

Based on the price of one of my corona cali houses it is up 25% more than the peek of 2006. Adjusted for inflation its still 19% less than 2006 price. Thats using the gov official inlfation number of 2.51% avarage over that time frame. We all know thats a bs number. id put it closer to 10%.

The numbers
2006 peek 540
now 680
adjusted for inflation should be 822. using gov numbers

 

[bentprops]

Usually the rate cuts coincide with a recession which is why the markets fall, be interesting to see what happens with rate cuts and no recession. Not aware of seeing that scenario before

Yes they cut rates when the economy is week. Thats my point. The econmey is week.

 

[shintoooo]

Anthony Davis on Instagram: "The boomer generation is showing us yet again that it pays to keep your assets over liabilities! It’s remarkable to see them selling their homes for $2M, considering they only paid a few bucks for. Reminder that it’s alwa

realtor_davis1up on November 1, 2023: "The boomer generation is showing us yet again that it pays to keep your assets over liabilities! It’s remarkable to see them selling their homes for $2M, considering they only paid a few bucks for. Reminder that it’s always a great time to buy a home, and...

www.instagram.com

 

[cofooter]

Yes they cut rates when the economy is week. Thats my point. The econmey is week.

Maybe, thats the $1M question

 

[530RL]

Homebuilder stocks soar as investors look ahead to Fed rate cuts

A lack of inventory in the resale market has already helped the industry. Interest rate cuts should also spur demand in 2024.

www.yahoo.com

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

The housing market took a big crap once they started cutting rates in 2006 but heck lets play your game.

Based on the price of one of my corona cali houses it is up 25% more than the peek of 2006. Adjusted for inflation its still 19% less than 2006 price. Thats using the gov official inlfation number of 2.51% avarage over that time frame. We all know thats a bs number. id put it closer to 10%.

The numbers
2006 peek 540
now 680
adjusted for inflation should be 822. using gov numbers

The lowering of rates in 2006 was reactionary. Housing took a crap because people got laid off and started walking away from their houses starting in 2006. They cut rates to try to breathe life back into the economy.

Your 2006 Corona number is about the biggest housing bubble prices in the country. If you bought in 2004, or 2008 the price today would be doubled what you paid.

Show me a house that peaked at $540 in 06. It’s worth more than $680 today assuming it is not trashed. The AVERAGE home price in Riverside county is $603k today. The AVERAGE price in 2006 was $427k. That is a 70% gain since 2006. The county average alone disproves your position.

That means your $540k house in 2006 should be about $900k today. Why has your house not just risen with the average?

My South OC house was worth about $600k in 2006. It is over $1M now. There are entire cities worth of data in So Cal that reflect these types of increases.

And again, the lowering of rates is not what caused housing prices to crash.

 

[monkeyswrench]

I don't know if things slowed because of rates, or someone shut the gate, but it seems like there are a lot more houses in town on the market. Prices are still stupid, but a lot more to choose from at least.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Anthony Davis on Instagram: "The boomer generation is showing us yet again that it pays to keep your assets over liabilities! It’s remarkable to see them selling their homes for $2M, considering they only paid a few bucks for. Reminder that it’s alwa

realtor_davis1up on November 1, 2023: "The boomer generation is showing us yet again that it pays to keep your assets over liabilities! It’s remarkable to see them selling their homes for $2M, considering they only paid a few bucks for. Reminder that it’s always a great time to buy a home, and...

www.instagram.com

How much longer until we eat the rich? Soylent Green is people.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

How much longer until we eat the rich? Soylent Green is people.

Be careful what you wish for.. You/we are the rich.

That said.. Likely not going to happen. The rich will be taxed into oblivion.

 

[monkeyswrench]

How much longer until we eat the rich? Soylent Green is people.

The rich have too many preservatives and fillers...I'm starting with the organic vegans...the other white meat

 

[regor]

 

[Cdog]

If you don’t qualify for free Kenyan care you’re the rich they’re talking about eating

 

[monkeyswrench]

If you don’t qualify for free Kenyan care you’re the rich they’re talking about eating

Being poor does have it's perks! The way this year went, I'll be in line for the buffet.
You rich bastards better start fattening up

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Be careful what you wish for.. You/we are the rich.

That said.. Likely not going to happen. The rich will be taxed into oblivion.

The rich have too many preservatives and fillers...I'm starting with the organic vegans...the other white meat

If you don’t qualify for free Kenyan care you’re the rich they’re talking about eating

Sink Me.

 

[shintoooo]

 

[JL95]

I almost made that mistake^ You never really know when it's at the top.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

View attachment 1314827

sums up this entire thread.

 

[bentprops]

And again, the lowering of rates is not what caused housing prices to crash.

Thats correct. They lowered rates because they seen it was about to take a crap. What would have happend if they kept rates the same? A worse houseing crash would have accurred.

 

[bentprops]

Be careful what you wish for.. You/we are the rich.

That said.. Likely not going to happen. The rich will be taxed into oblivion.

The poor and homeless in this country have it far better than the middle class in most others.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Thats correct. They lowered rates because they seen it was about to take a crap. What would have happend if they kept rates the same? A worse houseing crash would have accurred.

So we agree, rates didn’t cause the housing crash. The souring job marked did. Pretty much the same crash would have occurred regardless of rates.

People walked away because they were paying interest only, and their ARMs were kicking in on houses that were worth less than they owed and had put down $0. Walking away was an easy choice. Those conditions do not exist today. If rates drop next year, prices will continue to rise.

 

[bentprops]

Yes they cut rates to stimulate when the economy is in trouble. What i was getting at was they cut in 2006 cause they seen it coming but it didn't stop it.

Now the fed just went from higher for longer to 3 cuts in 2024. Thats a massive pivot in just 30 days. Why? If the econmey was good they could leave rates where they are.

The fed is reactive not proactive.

End the Fed

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Yes they cut rates to stimulate when the economy is in trouble. What i was getting at was they cut in 2006 cause they seen it coming but it didn't stop it.

Now the fed just went from higher for longer to 3 cuts in 2024. Thats a massive pivot in just 30 days. Why? If the econmey was good they could leave rates where they are.

The economy hasn’t been good for 30 years or longer. We just had a decade of fake success due to artificially low rates.

Again, this isn’t 2006. People have a ton of equity and low mortgages. The only people at risk might be the ones that bought in the last 2 years.