Stock Market 24 month look.

[TCHB]

Hard to believe we would have this kind of a downturn.

 

[TCHB]

5 year look.

 

[TCHB]

You can make out pretty good just by playing the swings if you get it right.

 

[RodnJen]

Slow and steady for me.

 

[GRADS]

We needed this correction in a big way. Hell, my Apple stock is still at $294. If someone would have told me a year ago or even 2 years ago that's how high it would be I would have said I'll take that all day long.

 

[TCHB]

Lets see how long it takes to get back up to somewhere close to the peaks. Months, or years??

 

[Activated]

We needed this correction in a big way. Hell, my Apple stock is still at $294. If someone would have told me a year ago or even 2 years ago that's how high it would be I would have said I'll take that all day long.

Your President says you are welcome.

 

[Rajobigguy]

You can make out pretty good just by playing the swings if you get it right.

I’m not smart enough or fast enough to catch a falling knife. I just wait it out until my 12 month average approaches my tolerance level before I start worrying about bailing out.
Actually, I’m doing really well on most of my investments, the only one that is dragging me down is Ford.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

We needed this correction in a big way. Hell, my Apple stock is still at $294. If someone would have told me a year ago or even 2 years ago that's how high it would be I would have said I'll take that all day long.

Why did we need a “correction”?

It’s been less than 2 weeks, the market is making 1000 point moves semi daily. This is far from a “correction” it is a knee jerk reaction.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Lets see how long it takes to get back up to somewhere close to the peaks. Months, or years??

When the virus dies off in the spring and the presidential race is Biden Vs Trump, and the supply chain is back online, stocks will stabilize and creep back unless something else happens.

 

[TCHB]

Lets see if the bottom is here.

 

[2Driver]

When the virus dies off in the spring and the presidential race is Biden Vs Trump, and the supply chain is back online, stocks will stabilize and creep back unless something else happens.

LOL Like a Dem wins

 

[Instigator]

LOL Like a Socialist wins

Fixed it for ya.

 

[2Driver]

whats the brain trust on picking up United or AA? 6-12 month play obviously but not sure where the bottom is as usual.

could fall again after they announce the official revenue damage or if max gets another delay.

 

[MeCasa16]

whats the brain trust on picking up United or AA? 6-12 month play obviously but not sure where the bottom is as usual.

could fall again after they announce the official revenue damage or if max gets another delay.

I’d avoid United at the moment, they Have a little further to fall with the amount of struggle they are seeing from Corona. This is all uncharted territory for the airlines, so don’t let a days rally make u think it’s hit bottom yet.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[motormonkey]

I'm staying course The gains have been too good. Bottom line is nothing is going to matter if it crashes like some say. Keep things close. Rates are low, that will hopefully get business thru the media induced panic. Inflation has been here and raising rates would kill the money train right now. The market is all ready leveling from the panic selling day traders and shorters.

 

[530RL]

Airlines are interesting because this is not an economic situation where people would travel if they could afford it, but a situation where they can afford to travel but are deciding against it due to risk or perceived risk.

An airline could have a fare sale tomorrow, and I doubt it would bring in much more business?

They are also hugely fixed cost operations where a very slight reduction is load factor affects profits significantly.

United and American cancelling 20% of international flights and 10% of domestic flights will result in a ton of planes sitting on the ground that still have to be paid for. And less demand on their commuter partners who are even more leveraged.

Airlines look like an area where the most money can be made short term........or lost short term.......

 

[Cobalt232]

Airlines are interesting because this is not an economic situation where people would travel if they could afford it, but a situation where they can afford to travel but are deciding against it due to risk or perceived risk.

An airline could have a fare sale tomorrow, and I doubt it would bring in much more business?

They are also hugely fixed cost operations where a very slight reduction is load factor affects profits significantly.

United and American cancelling 20% of international flights and 10% of domestic flights will result in a ton of planes sitting on the ground that still have to be paid for. And less demand on their commuter partners who are even more leveraged.

Airlines look like an area where the most money can be made short term........or lost short term.......

I picked up Southwest almost a year ago just after the MAX grounding thinking it would be a short term issue. I also grabbed some extra Boeing about the same time for the same reason. Double Whammy.

 

[Halvecto]

UAL has broken down. Lower highs, lower lows, well below it's SMAs, increased volume on down days. MACD oscillator showing liquidity drying up. At this point, this and most other airlines are battered and broken. Big money that wants out, is out. Traders may linger, but large $ HP has left the building. There are many other better possibilities out there. Similar to threads on PG&E last year, investors are often mesmirized to catch the turnaround, but its like bugs to a zapper. Don't be enamored by where it was and guess where it will be. PCG gave a few brief head fakes to later find its way from $20 to $4. It has come back, but a year later while the XLU (utility sector index) has had a great year, PCG has a negative trailing 1 year and still not where it was just after breaking down.

This is where goals drive tactics. Not the other way around. Markets like this are about risk management, keep your HP. Unless your portfolio is like that 48' Nordic with mega HP that can ride right through most anything, hammering the throttle in rough markets will likely just beat up your hull.

 

[TCHB]

My son in law is using private small Jets for his business travel. He is not using commercial airlines until this mess is over.

 

[buck35]

Airlines are interesting because this is not an economic situation where people would travel if they could afford it, but a situation where they can afford to travel but are deciding against it due to risk or perceived risk.

An airline could have a fare sale tomorrow, and I doubt it would bring in much more business?

They are also hugely fixed cost operations where a very slight reduction is load factor affects profits significantly.

United and American cancelling 20% of international flights and 10% of domestic flights will result in a ton of planes sitting on the ground that still have to be paid for. And less demand on their commuter partners who are even more leveraged.

Airlines look like an area where the most money can be made short term........or lost short term.......

Hugely... Noted for posterity.

 

[GRADS]

Why did we need a “correction”?

It’s been less than 2 weeks, the market is making 1000 point moves semi daily. This is far from a “correction” it is a knee jerk reaction.

The market is down over 10%....that is a correction.

 

[gqchris]

My son in law is using private small Jets for his business travel. He is not using commercial airlines until this mess is over.

Baller!

 

[thetub]

to be honest never thought the market would be anywhere near this amount.

was happy at 17,000 and thought that was high , so anything over that is icing on the cake.

now if jobs start getting cut cause of a slowdown thats a different story as it could start a snowball affect...

like said higher it goes the swings will seem bigger but gotta go off the % it drops not necessarily the amount it drops

hopefully this corona shit blows over and big Trump wins and it should take off again... even if Biden wins should stay stable

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

The market is down over 10%....that is a correction.

Not when it is thrashing around at 3% a day.

And why did we “need” it?

 

[thetub]

buy 3M stock

 

[TCHB]

Another tough day. No golf

 

[TCHB]

Where is the bottom

 

[zhandfull]

Where is the bottom

When the stock market is up nearly 60% in three years it seems to me that is not a very sustainable pace without a correction and/or bear market thrown in at some point. Thought the same thing about housing bubble prior to 2007 and we know how that played out. Guess time will tell.

 

[jet496]

I'm surprised the market is doing so well. The Feds really don't have much way in relief in this, so when they lower interest rates it only does a temporary dance but really means nothing more than a gesture. This was the craziest couple weeks I've ever seen & who knows where it's heading.

I will say this, business are losing money by the billions every day so I would think there'd be some serious ramifications to the global economy shutting down like it is, especially when quarterly earnings reports come out.

But then again, the market seems manipulated by the media more than fundamentals.

 

[bowtiejunkie]

Q1 & Q2 2020 earnings are definitely affected. But I can see it like this (provided the economy doesn’t slip down into some sort of recession, which I don’t think it will), public companies will adjust their earnings guidance, then in Q3, Q4 and beyond they’ll smash earnings and the hardest hit stocks will roar back to life. Just a guess.

Feels like bargain hunting time, but really feel like waiting for Q1 earnings.

 

[thetub]

for what its worth jobs report beat expectations today... adding 273,000 better than expected...

February jobs report: U.S. economy adds better than expected ...
finance.yahoo.com › news › february-2020-jobs-report-department-o...

 

[Halvecto]

Where is the bottom

Identifying the bottom is impossible in foresight. Whether looking at Indexes or individual stocks, what can happen is to identify markers of a market getting exhausted (at top or bottom). The challenge is how quickly can you identify that the turn has occurred. There is no consistent statistic that can predict it. December 2018 was a turn and rocket ride from the bottom and aggressive ride up for the next three months. The drop over the last few weeks has been as precipitous as the shot up last January/February. I think with all the technology and global investment, market volatility is faster, more frequent and accelerating, but the total number of data points is the same. Just coming faster.

Keep your HP, better yet, be sure you have the torque available to pull thru the early parts of a recovery.

 

[TCHB]

 

[gqchris]

Yup, its painful this morning already.

 

[boatpi]

Russians and oil.

 

[Spudsbud]

Sell Mortimir.....SELLLLLLLLL !

 

[DrunkenSailor]

It was crazy when the dow topped 20k it was damn near at 30k when this all started something needed to happen to slow down the madness. That said this is pretty drastic.

 

[RCDave]

 

[rrrr]

Sell Mortimir.....SELLLLLLLLL !

When I checked the futures last night at 11:30, I decided it was time to pull the ejection handle and moved into cash positions. The oil markets added mayhem to the bedlam, today was ugly.

 

[gqchris]

When I checked the futures last night at 11:30, I decided it was time to pull the ejection handle and moved into cash positions. The oil markets added mayhem to the bedlam, today was ugly.

Good looking ahead! Im a rookie, and today stung a bit

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Good looking ahead! Im a rookie, and today stung a bit

We have time on our side to recover!

 

[gqchris]

We have time on our side to recover!

Yup, im in it for the long haul! Still sucks to watch the drain lol..

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Yup, im in it for the long haul! Still sucks to watch the drain lol..

Yep.. not opening the Fidelity app today lol.

 

[Halvecto]

Today was an outlier day. Black Swan. Multiple standard deviations from normal in nearly every major market (oil, bonds, stocks, etc.). Like Lehman in '08, situations like this expose unexpected vulnerabilities. This kind of action catches people, even big firms, with their pants down.

Over the next few weeks, even months, books cannot get balanced, contra-parties cannot come through, there will be pain. Lehman wasn't the only one that felt the sting in 2008. It was a mortal wound for them, but a massive bruise for many others. History would portend that there will be more problems. Don't be in a hurry to catch the falling knife, although it is not nearly as sharp as a month ago. Like the Q1 2019 rip on the upside was the fastest ever, this drop was the inverse. Fast and heavy. There will be head fakes over next few weeks/months. The market has an uncanny way of hammering toes that aren't wearing shoes.



I wrote this to a group today:


It's not different this time. The cause is unique, the starting point with yields is unprecedented, but the markets are not different. They work.. The media earns money by creating lack of certainty, not more of it. There is more liquidity, more global investors involved and more opportunity than in the history of investing. These two things can cause or allow more volatility, but they will also cause/allow a strong recovery. USA is by far the best, safest capital market in the world. Money will end up back here if it isn't already here. Where will it go? Negative real yield Treasuries? China? Corona fiasco Europe? Bank savings @ 0.02%?...... It may hide for a little while, but it will absolutely come back out to play.

I realize its easy to run for cover. No one likes taking it on the money chin. If you are like me, you tend to go through the "what I could have bought with that" mindset. Fight it off. Every good investor loses some money, but makes more as a result of it.

Now is the time for a pro-active advisor to look for opportunity. In a War, it's the guys that duck and run that end up getting plunked. Now is the time to be a sniper. Hacksaw Ridge was a neat movie, but this battle will be won with strategic, tactical shots. If you have never heard of Carlos Hathcock, take some time at lunch or after work and read about him. Considered the greatest American sniper. His determination combined with patience (he once spent nearly three days crawling across a massive field to get to his set-up so he could make one shot) made him unbelievably effective and a great story to boot.

Set up your rifle in some cover (Blue chip dividends, short term Treasuries, etc.) and then look for easy pickings. They will appear. Slow your breathing, get in a rhythm and then take good shots.

 

[THE WIDGE]

I moved all my deferred comp monies to cash in oct while at 27k Dow, anticipating something like this. I kicked myself for months as it sky rocked. I Glad now, but trying to figure when to get back in. I know it should corrrct itself once we have good news w virus and the media shuts up. Do we have another 5-7% drop in the near .

 

[Carlson-jet]

Both gold and oil went down.
Keep an eye on what the large institutions buy. This is another perfect time for musical chairs.

 

[thetub]

or right before the election ?

If Trump looks to be re elected or even Biden...

if Sanders just burn all the institutions down...

 

[PlumLoco]

Three years ago we sold our house and bought another one. Cleared $200K that has been sitting in a savings account, earmarked for one kid's college fund, and some major remodel work on the new house when the time comes. We were not willing to put it back into the market and risk it like 2008. We probably still have $350-400K in various retirement funds. Up until lately we were ok with the low interest earnings vs. the whims of a potentially volitile stock market. I finally convinced the wife to spend $50K on gold/silver as it should be a good hedge while remaining fairly liquid should it become needed as cash again. Spread it around about 90/10 gold and silver with some Pre 33 coins sprinkled in. Today I'm up about $5200. We'll see what the rest of the year brings. Fingers crossed.

 

[jet496]

Three years ago we sold our house and bought another one. Cleared $200K that has been sitting in a savings account, earmarked for one kid's college fund, and some major remodel work on the new house when the time comes. We were not willing to put it back into the market and risk it like 2008. We probably still have $350-400K in various retirement funds. Up until lately we were ok with the low interest earnings vs. the whims of a potentially volitile stock market. I finally convinced the wife to spend $50K on gold/silver as it should be a good hedge while remaining fairly liquid should it become needed as cash again. Spread it around about 90/10 gold and silver with some Pre 33 coins sprinkled in. Today I'm up about $5200. We'll see what the rest of the year brings. Fingers crossed.

Where do you buy gold & silver?