Stock Market 24 month look.

[rrrr]

We have time on our side to recover!

In my case, that's unfortunately not true. I'm gonna be 63 this month, and watching almost 8% of my retirement investments disappear in the nine days before I threw in the sponge was enough to change my mind about making no changes.

BTW, "Threw in the sponge" is an old boxing metaphor. Many years ago, the corner man's tools were limited to Vaseline, a compound called alum that slowed bleeding, along with a bucket of water and a sponge. When the manager decided his fighter was unable to continue without risk of more serious injury than he was already receiving, he grabbed the sponge from the bucket and threw it into the ring.

 

[RVR SWPR]

Hard to believe we would have this kind of a downturn.

Just think,if President Trump had not created the market @ 29k high this year where we would be this morning.If Hillary or Biden no doubt down around 14k or less.Their highs would not be anywhere close to 29k.Corona was coming no matter the market performance.

 

[PlumLoco]

Where do you buy gold & silver?

I use Texas Precious Metals (texmetals.com) but JMBullion and Kitco are other I use for comparisons. I try to stick to one source as it is easier to track the constantly moving prices. They also offer a very easy buy back policy when I want to sell.
I am currently looking for storage options, as no banks offer safety deposit boxed anymore. My biggest fear is my 120 yr old house catching fire and having it all melt. Recovery could be a problem, safe or no safe.
Kitco has a very informative Forum section, if you want to learn more. It's in the tool bar at the top of the page.

 

[rrrr]

Today was an outlier day. Black Swan. Multiple standard deviations from normal in nearly every major market (oil, bonds, stocks, etc.). Like Lehman in '08, situations like this expose unexpected vulnerabilities. This kind of action catches people, even big firms, with their pants down.

You've pointed out the danger of contrarian investments, which use downward movement of markets to produce gains.

Some hedge positions are tied to the underlying financial instrument with leverage, a situation that can quickly consume a portfolio when the bet is made with borrowed funds. Brokerages can sell the client's holdings without his approval to cover losses.

 

[Halvecto]

You've pointed out the danger of contrarian investments, which use downward movement of markets to produce gains.

Some hedge positions are tied to the underlying financial instrument with leverage, a situation that can quickly consume a portfolio when the bet is made with borrowed funds. Brokerages can sell the client's holdings without his approval to cover losses.

The inter-connectivity of the currency, repo, re-insurance, options, securities lending and over-night lending is broad. I am not a conspiracy theorist. But human nature, even at Institutional level, always finds a few getting complacent or greedy. Technology has aided the markets to become more efficient, more accurate and also potentially more dangerous.

Magnitude of change is, in relative total, not much different. Velocity is changing, so amplitude is also. That's a fancy way of saying, number of data points is similar. Technology is compressing change via speed, so if the frequency and height/depth of variance is greater than in the past, something has to give.

"The Dow is currently 19% off its high in 17 sessions, so assuming it falls another 1% over the next few days, this would make it by far the fastest all-time high to bear market ever. The second fastest was 1929, which took 36 sessions." ~
-Michael Batnick

 

[84miller]

I closed one brokerage account down today. I have a total of 3 different brokerage accounts, only closed one. I am a head on my initial investment, but it was a aggressive investment and decided to play it safe. Money will go to savings and wait to see what is going on before re-investing. The other two brokerage accounts are pretty safe, one is a real estate that I get a monthly check, the other is pretty much dividend payouts of which those stocks are pretty safe and have weathered many up/downs. I am older/retired so go for low risk as much as possible.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

1st quarter earnings reports come next month. Some will be ugly but we won't see serious supply chain issues until the second quarter. I read an article today that said one of every six publicly traded us companies do not earn enough to cover their debt payments and the only way they are surviving is by refinancing the debt.

More than half of the total debt for non financial companies is rated as bbb or just slightly better than junk. Corporate debt is at its highest level. Last year roughly 40% of leveraged loans went to companies with a debt to earnings ratio of six to one or worse.

The cheap flow of capital is being cut off and businesses are being downgraded which means that they are no longer investment grade which means that their borrowing costs go up by about 2% right now according to s&p.

Low borrowing costs, low credit hurdles and an excess amount of capital to lend. Sound familiar? It's not resi this time it's commercial debt. All the market needs is the right catalyst. Shutting down supply chains, transportation, entertainment and gathering locations sounds like a pretty good catalyst to me.

If we can get through this quickly and keep lending moving we will be fine if this drags on for another quarter...

 

[SKIDMARC]

I could be wrong but feels like a recession is on the horizon. I hope so, really want to rent out my house and buy another.

 

[DILLIGAF]

I’m not smart enough or fast enough to catch a falling knife. I just wait it out until my 12 month average approaches my tolerance level before I start worrying about bailing out.
Actually, I’m doing really well on most of my investments, the only one that is dragging me down is Ford.

I keep thinking F will pop up but it doesnt. Agggghhhhh

 

[DILLIGAF]

I bought in today on a lot of stocks. I will list em here when i get home for shits and giggles

 

[DILLIGAF]

These actually went thru yesterday. Some I added to positions and others were new pickups for me. Here you go along with the purchase price but do your own DD peeps. Not suggesting you do anything. Put up some of your trades as well.

IP 32.19
IVZ 11.67
DAL 42.64
DOW 30.84
XOM 42.11
F 5.92
MESA 5.06
OXY 16.04
RDS.A 34.65
TSN 60.76
VLO 59.00

 

[Halvecto]

If looking for large known names, Banks made an impressive turn off of Monday lows today after wide under-performance to S&P YTD. If it holds today, maybe worth a nibble. Beware, not all well known Banks are in the same position to withstand this.

ETFs with broad exposure: VFH XLF

There are plenty of funds with specific Financial sub-sector holdings.

@DILLIGAF You've got guts going after Energy. Swwwwingggg batter!

 

[DILLIGAF]

If looking for large known names, Banks made an impressive turn off of Monday lows today after wide under-performance to S&P YTD. If it holds today, maybe worth a nibble. Beware, not all well known Banks are in the same position to withstand this.

ETFs with broad exposure: VFH XLF

There are plenty of funds with specific Financial sub-sector holdings.

@DILLIGAF You've got guts going after Energy. Swwwwingggg batter!

Lol. Most of my stuff is long term.

 

[DILLIGAF]

Taking a hopefully short term ass whupping right now. It could turn around by the end of the day for all I know.

Hopefully at some point i get to yell:

YAHTZEE!

Lol

 

[gqchris]

Taking a hopefully short term ass whupping right now. It could turn around by the end of the day for all I know.

Hopefully at some point i get to yell:

YAHTZEE!

Lol

We both are sir. I have MESA, DAL from your list. Also EFX and TJX. All has tanked at this moment. LOL

 

[zhandfull]

Taking a hopefully short term ass whupping right now. It could turn around by the end of the day for all I know.

Hopefully at some point i get to yell:

YAHTZEE!

Lol

Not hearing much good news to prop up the market. Might get a bump with a stimulus plan but then what? It's hard to imagine much good to trade on till the covid-19 passes and the associated business losses work there way through the markets.

 

[DILLIGAF]

To each his own. I am just taking some shots that may or may not payoff. You guys be careful and follow ur own path. Good luck and stay alert

 

[brgrcru]

I could be wrong but feels like a recession is on the horizon. I hope so, really want to rent out my house and buy another.

really?
so you want the economy to fail ?

 

[TCHB]

Sorry no golf today.

 

[530RL]

We are still above the December 2018 index lows and earnings will be lower overall for 2020 than for 2018.

The pull back is not that bad so far.

 

[Rajobigguy]

Sorry no golf today.

So it's your fault. I wondered what the problem was today.

 

[zhandfull]

Think it's important to remember there are no guarantees in the stock markets. All the money you have invested in an individual stock can be lost even if the Fed backstops the company. General Motors 2009 bankruptcy and bailout comes to mind where ordinary stock holders were wiped out completely.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

Futures are negative 1,100 for the dow as of right now and steadily dropping.

 

[DILLIGAF]

We both are sir. I have MESA, DAL from your list. Also EFX and TJX. All has tanked at this moment. LOL

We need some patience and all will work its way out

 

[Rajobigguy]

Another ugly day. I don't know weather to buy, sell or go bowling.

 

[brgrcru]

Another ugly day. I don't know weather to buy, sell or go bowling.

Go bowling , all us center owners could use people . Lol

 

[DILLIGAF]

Another ugly day. I don't know weather to buy, sell or go bowling.

Bowling

 

[SKIDMARC]

really?
so you want the economy to fail ?

A recession does not mean the economy is going to fail. Please see definition below. Just looking to be strategic in my future investments. If I'm wrong in that thinking then I guess I'm wrong. But still thinking that way.

Recession:
"a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters"

 

[brgrcru]

A recession does not mean the economy is going to fail. Please see definition below. Just looking to be strategic in my future investments. If I'm wrong in that thinking then I guess I'm wrong. But still thinking that way.

Recession:
"a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters"

that is what the definition says, in the might webster.
real life is an entire different definition.

you might get your wish, because if this cv19 keeps going for months. you might be able to fulfil your dreams.

wanting stuff to go down for personnel gain. I get it. many people are selfish like that.
but i wish failure on nobody.

 

[jet496]

I think Trump & his team did a great job instilling confidence today& that the market will most likely be on the rise, even cruise lines.