Mortgage Market Update/Purchase and Refinance Mortgage info

Tamalewagon · May 24, 2017

Wednesdays bond market has opened flat as traders await this afternoons events. Stocks are showing minor gains with the Dow up 36 points and the Nasdaq up 7 points. The bond market is currently down 1/32 (2.28%), but due to weakness late yesterday we should see an increase in this mornings mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point if comparing to Tuesdays early pricing.

This mornings only relevant economic date came from the National Association of Realtors at 10:00 AM ET, who announced that home resales fell 2.3% last month. This was a larger decline than forecasts, indicating the housing sector was softer than many had thought. Because a weakening housing sector is a drag on broader economic growth, the data is good news for bonds and mortgage rates. Unfortunately, this is only a moderately important release and traders seem to be more interested in this afternoons release of the FOMC minutes.

Those minutes will be posted at 2:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during mid-afternoon trading. market participants will be looking for how Fed members voted during the last meeting and any comments about inflation or concerns regarding economic growth. The goal is to form opinions about the Feds next move regarding key short-term interest rates, which is currently expected to happen at one of the upcoming FOMC meetings.

Before we get to the minutes though, we will be watching the results of todays 5-year Treasury Note auction. The Fed is auctioning 5-year Notes today and 7-year Notes tomorrow. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions to mortgage rates. On the other hand, strong sales usually make bonds more attractive to investors, bringing more funds into the bond market. The buying that follows often translates into lower mortgage rates. Results of the todays sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET.

Tomorrows only release is last weeks unemployment update. This report is expected to show that 238,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, up from the previous weeks 232,000. Rising initial claims are a sign of employment sector weakness, so the larger the number of claims, the better the news it is for mortgage rates. Although, because this is only a weekly reading we usually need to see a significant variance from forecasts for it to impact mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · May 25, 2017

Thursdays bond market has opened flat again with no significant economic data to drive trading. The major stock indexes are showing moderate gains, pushing the Dow higher by 63 points and the Nasdaq up 24 points. The bond market is currently unchanged (2.25%), but we still should see an improvement in this mornings mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point due to strength late yesterday. If your lender did improve pricing yesterday afternoon, you probably will see no change in this mornings rates.

We saw bonds improve yesterday afternoon following two favorable events. First, the 5-year Treasury Note sale was very well with several benchmarks pointing towards a strong demand for the securities. That allows us to be optimistic about today?s 7-year Note auction. If it is also well received, we could see bonds improve again this afternoon, possibly leading to a slight improvement in mortgage pricing. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading.

Also late yesterday was the release of the minutes from this months FOMC meeting. They did not reveal many surprises, especially on key topics such as when they may make their next increase to key short-term interest rates. However, the bond market responded well to discussion about the Feds balance sheet and their intentions regarding reducing their holdings. `It appears that the consensus amongst Fed members is a path that is not as drastic as some had previously thought. That allowed bonds to rise, leading to many lenders improving rates before closing yesterday.

Last weeks unemployment figures were released at 8:30 AM ET this morning. They revealed that 234,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were made last week, rising slightly from the previous weeks revised 233,000. Analysts were expecting to see 238,000 initial filings, so while an increase is the right direction for mortgage rates, it still fell short of forecasts. Therefore, we should consider the data slightly negative to neutral for mortgage shoppers.

Tomorrow has three reports scheduled that are relevant to mortgage rates. The first revision to the 1st quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will come at 8:30 AM ET. The GDP is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best measurement of economic growth. Last months preliminary reading revealed a 0.7% annual rate of growth. Forecasts are calling for an upward revision of 0.1% in this update, equating to economic growth of 0.8%. If the revision comes in much stronger than expected, we may see the bond market react negatively and mortgage rates move higher because it would mean the economy was stronger than thought last quarter. Since bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions, a softer than predicted reading would be good news for mortgage rates.

Aprils Durable Goods Orders will also be released early tomorrow morning. This data gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket products. These are items made with an expected life span of three or more years such as airplanes, appliances and electronics. It is currently expected to show a decline in new orders of approximately 1.8%, hinting that the manufacturing sector weakened last month. That would be relatively good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but this data is known to be quite volatile. Therefore, a small variance from forecasts will likely have little impact on mortgage rates. The larger the decline, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

The last mortgage-related data of the week will come from the University of Michigan late tomorrow morning when they update their Index of Consumer Sentiment for May. This type of data is watched fairly closely because when consumers are feeling more confident about their own financial situations, they are more likely to make a large purchase in the near future. Rising confidence and the higher levels of spending that usually follow are considered negative news for bonds and mortgage rates. Tomorrows report is expected to show a slight decline to this month's preliminary reading of 97.7. A higher reading would be considered bad news for bonds and mortgage pricing while a large decline should help boost bond prices and lead to a slight improvement in rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · May 26, 2017

Fridays bond market has opened in positive territory following conflicting economic data and a mixed open in stocks. The major stock indexes are calm with the Dow down 6 points and the Nasdaq up 2 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32 (2.23%), which should improve this mornings mortgage rates slightly.

There were three pieces of economic data released this morning. One was the first revision to the 1st quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 8:30 AM ET. It showed that the economy grew at a 1.2% annual rate during the first three months of the year. That was higher than the previous estimate of 0.7% and stronger than the 0.8% that was expected. This is an important number because it shows that the economy was actually, quite a bit stronger during the first part of the year than many had thought. Because bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions, this is bad news for mortgage rates.

Aprils Durable Goods Orders was also posted at 8:30 AM. The Commerce Department announced a 0.7% decline in new orders for big-ticket products last month. That headline number was stronger than the 1.8% decline that was expected. However, this data is known to be quite volatile, so the variance is not as meaningful as it would be with many other reports. Also, a secondary reading that excludes more costly and volatile airplane and other transportation-related orders showed a 0.4% decline when analysts were calling for a 0.4% increase. That allows us to consider the data neutral-to-slightly positive for bonds and mortgage rates.

The University of Michigans revised Index of Consumer Sentiment for May closed out this weeks calendar at 10:00 AM ET. It showed a reading of 97.1 that fell short of the 97.5 that was forecasted. It also was a downward revision from the initial reading of 97.7. The lower reading indicates surveyed consumers were less optimistic about their own financial situations than they previously thought. That is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because waning confidence usually means consumers are less likely to make a large purchase in the near future.

Next week has some important economic data scheduled and it will only be a 4-day week due to Mondays Memorial Day holiday. The financial and mortgage markets will be closed Monday. There is no early close for bonds or stocks scheduled for today. Look for details on next weeks events in Sunday evenings weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · May 30, 2017

Tuesday?s bond market has opened in positive territory following the long weekend. Stocks are starting the week off in negative ground, pushing the Dow lower 50 points and the Nasdaq down 7 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32 (2.22%), which should improve mortgage rates slightly from Friday?s morning levels. The financial and mortgage markets were closed yesterday for the Memorial Day holiday.

This morning brought us two pieces of economic data, starting with April's Personal Income and Outlays data at 8:30 AM ET. The Commerce Department announced a 0.4% rise in both income and spending, matching expectations. Both readings are moderate increases in data that the bond market prefers to see weaker numbers. And an inflation component in the data showed a slightly stronger reading than predicted. However, the impact it has had on this morning?s mortgage rates has been minimal.

The Conference Board posted their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at 10:00 AM ET this morning. It gave us good news with a reading of 117.9 for May that fell short of the 119.5 that was forecasted. It was also a decline from April?s revised 119.4. Today?s numbers indicate that consumer confidence was weaker than thought during May and April. Since waning confidence usually translates into softer levels of consumer spending, we can consider this data favorable for bonds and mortgage rates.

Tomorrow's only relevant report is the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, which is named simply after the color of its cover. This report details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by Federal Reserve region. It is relied upon heavily by the Fed to determine monetary policy during their FOMC meetings. If it shows surprisingly softer economic activity since the last report, the bond market may thrive and mortgage rates could drop shortly after the 2:00 PM ET release. If it reveals signs of inflation growing or rapidly expanding economic activity in many regions, we could see mortgage rates revise higher tomorrow afternoon.

Overall, it appears that Friday is the key day of the week with regards to mortgage rate movement due to the significance of the monthly Employment report. However, Thursday could also be a pretty active day for mortgage pricing. Tomorrow will probably be the lightest day, particularly the morning, unless something unexpected happens with stocks. We have some key data being posted this week. Therefore, it would be prudent to continue to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now..

Tamalewagon · May 31, 2017

Wednesdays bond market has opened flat with no economic data to drive morning trading. The major stock indexes are showing moderate losses of 66 points in the Dow and 31 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 1/32 (2.20%), which because of strength late yesterday should improve this mornings mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

There are no relevant economic reports being released this morning. Todays only event that has the potential to affect mortgage rates is the Federal Reserves Beige Book. This report, which is named simply after the color of its cover, details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by Federal Reserve region. It is relied upon heavily by the Fed to determine monetary policy during their FOMC meetings. If it shows surprisingly softer economic activity since the last report, the bond market may thrive and mortgage rates could drop shortly after the 2:00 PM ET release. If it reveals signs of inflation growing or rapidly expanding economic activity in many regions, we could see mortgage rates revise higher this afternoon.

There are three reports coming tomorrow morning that could affect mortgage pricing. The ADP Employment report is first, set for release at 8:15 AM ET. It has the potential to cause some movement in the markets if it shows much stronger or weaker numbers than expected. This report tracks changes in private-sector jobs of ADPs clients that use them for payroll processing. While it does draw attention, it is my opinion that it is overrated and is not a true reflection of the broader employment picture. It also is not very accurate in predicting results of the monthly government report that follows a couple days later. Still, because we sometimes see a reaction to the report, we should be watching it. Analysts are expecting it to show that 175,000 new payrolls were added. The lower the number of jobs, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

Last weeks unemployment figures will be released at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow. They are forecasted to show that 239,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, up from the previous weeks 234,000 initial claims. This report usually does not cause much movement in the markets or mortgage rates unless it shows a significant jump or drop in initial claims for benefits. The higher the number of claims, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates since rising claims is a sign of employment sector weakness.

The final report of the day will be the Institute for Supply Management?s (ISM) manufacturing index at 10:00 AM ET. This release is highly important and measures manufacturer sentiment about current business conditions. One reason why it is considered so important is the fact that it is the first piece of economic data posted every month that covers the preceding month. In other words, it is the first look into the previous months economic conditions. That differs from many reports that are not released until mid or late month. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed manufacturing executives felt that business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened. Analysts are expecting to see a 54.7 reading in this month's release, meaning that sentiment slipped a little during May. A smaller reading will be good news for the bond market and mortgage shoppers while an increase could contribute to higher mortgage rates tomorrow.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

(please note, the opinions expressed by Mortgage News Daily are not necessarily those of Wenhe Mortgage and Realty)

Tamalewagon · Jun 1, 2017

Thursdays bond market has opened in negative territory following stronger than expected employment news. Stocks are showing modest gains with the Dow up 20 points and the Nasdaq up 7 points. The bond market is currently down 7/32 (2.22%), which should push this mornings mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Yesterdays afternoon release of the Fed Beige Book actually did give us a couple surprises. The report showed some Fed regions reporting slower economic activity, particularly in the Boston and Chicago regions. There were also signs that the New York region may be following suit. There was no drastic pullback and the overall tone of the report still pointed towards modest-moderate growth. However, the fact multiple regions are reporting a slower pace of economic activity raises the possibility of the Fed having to alter their plans for key short-term interest rate hikes this year. The general consensus that they will make a .25% bump at this months meeting remains intact though. As result, the bond market initially responded favorably to the news but did give up the small improvement before the end of the day.

The first of this mornings three pieces of economic data was Mays ADP Employment report at 8:15 AM ET. It showed an increase of 253,000 new private-sector jobs during the month, greatly exceeding forecasts of 175,000. This is bad news for the bond and mortgage markets because it fuels speculation that Fridays governmental Employment report will come in stronger than current expectations. That remains to be seen, but it is having a negative impact on this mornings bond trading and mortgage pricing.

Slightly offsetting that news was the 8:30 AM release of last weeks unemployment figures. They showed that 248,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, up from the previous weeks revised 235,000 initial filings. Analysts were expecting to see 239,000, so the larger increase is good news for bonds and mortgage rates. Unfortunately, the monthly ADP report carries more significance than the weekly update and caused the bond market to open in negative ground.

Those two reports were followed by the Institute for Supply Managements (ISM) manufacturing index at 10:00 AM ET. It came in at 54.9, slightly above Aprils 54.8 and up a tad from the 54.7 that traders were expecting to see. This reading means surveyed manufacturing executives felt business conditions remained near the same as they did in April. A noticeable decline in the index would have been preferred by bond traders, but the fact that it did not rise much either is also a good sign. The news had little impact on this mornings bond trading and mortgage pricing, leaving intact the negative open.

Tomorrows only relevant report is a key release that almost always heavily influences the financial and mortgage markets. Mays Employment will be posted at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow, giving us key employment readings such as the U.S. unemployment rate and the number of jobs added or lost during the month. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate remain at 4.4% with approximately 185,000 jobs added to the economy during the month. A higher than expected unemployment rate and a much smaller payroll number would be great news for the bond market. It would probably create a sizable rally in bonds, leading to lower mortgage rates tomorrow. However, stronger than expected numbers should cause a stock rally and a spike in mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jun 2, 2017

Stock market closed with record highs today due to the U.S. pulling out of the Paris Climate agreement. It will be interesting to see how rates react tomorrow morning.

Kailuaboy89 · Jun 2, 2017

I only hope I can get the damn house refinanced before September....or we are screwed.:thumbsdown

Tamalewagon · Jun 2, 2017

Fridays bond market has opened well in positive territory following the release of much weaker than expected employment data. The major stock indexes are up slightly with the Dow up 8 points and the Nasdaq up 15 points. The bond market is currently up 13/32 (2.16%), which should improve this mornings mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point over Thursdays morning pricing.

Todays big news was Mays Employment report at 8:30 AM ET. It showed that the U.S. unemployment rate slipped to 4.3% last month, its lowest level since May 2001. While the decline is technically bad news for bonds and mortgage rates, it does not draw as much attention as some may think because the biggest influence pushing the rate lower is a declining labor force participation rate. That means the unemployment rate moves lower because there are fewer people actively looking for work or currently employed and not due to more people finding jobs. So, while the headline number is often quoted, it does not carry the significance in the bond and other financial markets as it used to.

The good news came in the payroll numbers for May, April and March. Todays report showed that only 138,000 new jobs were added to the economy last month, falling well short of the 185,000 that was expected. It also was significantly lower than the ADP report?s 253,000 private sector number that was released yesterday, underscoring the unreliability of it when trying to predict the governmental number. More good news came in downward revisions to April and March that lowered new jobs by 66,000. That dropped the three-month average job gain down to only 121,000 per month.

Lastly, the release also showed average earnings rose 0.2% last month when analysts were expecting to see a 0.3% rise. That is in addition to a 0.1% downward revision to April?s earnings number, indicating that wages did not grow as much as expected over the past two months. This is good news because rising wages fuel inflation concerns that make bonds less appealing to investors.

Overall, todays report had much more favorable news than negative and we are seeing a good reaction in the bond market. Stocks are not reacting as much as bonds, although that may come later in the day. Next week has little scheduled that is expected to influence mortgage rates, leaving open the possibility of todays rally extending into early next week. There are only a couple monthly or quarterly reports and they are not considered to be highly important. Look for details on all of next week?s activities in Sunday evenings weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jun 5, 2017

Mondays bond market has opened in negative territory as investors capture profits from last weeks rally. Stocks are starting the week with modest gains of 9 points in the Dow and 3 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 5/32 (2.17%), which should push this mornings mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point if comparing to Fridays morning pricing.

The first of todays two economic releases was revised 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data at 8:30 AM ET. It showed that productivity was unchanged during the quarter, up from the 0.6% decline that was previously released. Todays early release also showed that labor costs rose only 2.2%, compared to the 2.4% that was expected and 3.0% in the preliminary estimate. Both readings are favorable for bonds and mortgage rates. However, this report does not carry enough importance to offset the negative tone in bonds this morning.

Also posted this morning was Aprils Factory Orders report from the Commerce Department. They announced at 10:00 AM that new orders for durable and non-durable goods fell 0.2% in April, matching forecasts. The news points towards a flat manufacturing sector, making the data neutral for bonds and mortgage rates.

There is nothing of relevance set for tomorrow. The rest of the week will likely be driven by non-economic factors. One key event is former FBI Director James Comeys expected Senate testimony Thursday that will be center stage. If he does testify, we can expect the markets to have some type of reaction to the proceedings. It is more likely that we will hear things that will be bond favorable, but how strong of a reaction they will have remains to be seen.

Overall, today is a good possibility of being the most active day for mortgage rates but Thursday also is a day that we may see noticeable movement in rates as a result of news out of Washington. The calmest day could be any other day with so little on the calendar. Despite the light week, it is still recommended to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jun 6, 2017

Tuesdays bond market has opened in positive territory despite the lack of relevant economic data. The major stock indexes are showing minor losses, pushing the Dow down 34 points and the Nasdaq lower by 2 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32 (2.14%), which should improve this mornings mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

What is driving this mornings bond rally is news from China that indicates they may be buying more U.S. securities in the immediate future. It was believed China, the largest holder of U.S. debt, was selling holdings. So, the news of new buying should help keep bond yields lower in the near future. Since mortgage rates tend to track bond yields, we are seeing a positive reaction in this mornings trading and mortgage pricing.

The rest of the week has little scheduled for release that may affect mortgage rates. There are no monthly or quarterly economic reports scheduled the rest of the week, leaving outside factors to be the biggest influence on the bond and mortgage markets the next few days.

One key event will be former FBI Director James Comeys expected Senate testimony Thursday. If he does testify, we can expect the markets to have some type of reaction to the proceedings. It is more likely that we will hear things that will be bond favorable, but how strong of a reaction they will have remains to be seen.

Despite the light week, it is still recommended to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future. As we saw this morning, the unexpected can happen at any time and have a noticeable impact on rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jun 6, 2017

"Bidding Frenzy" Drives Prices Higher

Jun 6 2017, 9:24AM

Home price increases moderated slightly in April, at least as measured by the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI). The company announced an increase of 6.9 percent compared prices in April 2016, falling off a bit from the year-over-year appreciation rate of 7.1 percent in March. Over the first four months of the year CoreLogic's HPI has averaged annual increases of 6.98 percent.

Prices continued to soar in Washington State, up 12 percent on an annual basis. Utah replaced Oregon in second position with a gain of 10.1 percent and Oregon prices rose 9.1 percent. Only two states experienced price declines, Wyoming and Delaware at 3.9 percent and 0.2 percent respectively.

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, were up 1.6 percent from the March level, tying an identical increase from February to March for the largest gain since April 2016.

CoreLogic is forecasting that prices will increase by 5.1 percent from April 2017 to April 2018. The company's forward-looking HPI uses state-level forecasts based on its current HPI and other economic variables. The company also forecasts that prices will rise by 0.7 percent between April and May.

"Mortgage rates in April dipped back to their lowest level since November of last year, spurring home-buying activity," said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. "In some metro areas, there has been a bidding frenzy as multiple contracts are placed on a single home. This has led home-price growth to outpace rent gains. Nationally, home prices were up 6.9 percent over the last year, while rent growth for single-family rental homes recorded a 3 percent rise through April, according to the CoreLogic Single-Family Rental Index."

"Interest rates on fixed-rate mortgages are down by one-fourth of a percentage point since mid-March, just in time to support the spring home-buying season," said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "Some metro areas have low for-sale inventory, short time-on-market trends and homes that sell above the list price. Geographically, gains were strongest in the West with Washington and Utah posting double-digit gains."

Tamalewagon · Jun 7, 2017

Wednesdays bond market has opened in negative territory as traders prepare for the next couple days of hearings in Washington DC. Stocks are showing minor gains, pushing the Dow up 37 points and the Nasdaq up 19 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32 (2.15%), which should keep this morning?s mortgage rates at yesterday?s levels.

Today has no relevant economic data set for release. We can expect stock movement and news out of Washington to drive bond trading and mortgage pricing today. Do not be surprised to see some movement throughout the day, but I am not expecting to see a big move in mortgage rates until possibly tomorrow.

There are four people speaking before the Senate intelligence committee today, but the big news will be former FBI Director James Comeys appearance tomorrow. The markets will be watching today and tomorrow?s events. We can expect to see some volatility in the major indexes and bond prices as the days progress. In events such as these, it is common to see an immediate short-term knee-jerk reaction as the news hits the wires. In other words, don?t be surprised to see some movement in the markets intra-day, but what will be most meaningful is where we settle late tomorrow or Friday.

Tomorrows only economic data will be last weeks unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET. They are expected to show 240,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed. This would be a decline from the previous weeks 248,000 initial filings. Since rising claims is a sign of a weakening employment sector, the higher the number the better the news it is for mortgage shoppers. However, because this is only a weekly report and will be shadowed by the Senate hearings, it will take a significant variance from forecasts to directly impact mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jun 8, 2017

Thursdays bond market has opened in negative territory ahead of todays political event. The major stock indexes are mixed but fairly calm with the Dow up 34 points and the Nasdaq down 1 point. The bond market is currently down 10/32 (2.20%), which should push this morning?s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

This mornings only relevant economic news came at 8:30 AM ET when last weeks unemployment figures were posted. They showed that 245,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a decline from the previous weeks revised 255,000 and higher than the 240,000 that was expected, making the data good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

The big news today will come from Washington DC, where former FBI Director James Comey is testifying before the Senate Intelligence Committee. The markets will be watching today?s proceedings closely. His prepared statement was posted yesterday, giving us some insight as to what to expect from him today. There undoubtedly will be some testy moments. Not just between him and the committee, but also between committee members.

So, what can we expect from today?s event? Realistically, hearing anything that could lead to impeachment of President Trump is not likely. However, by no means does that mean this thing will not cause volatility in the markets. Stocks have rallied significantly since election night, based on the Presidents pro-economic growth agenda. Him losing credibility over this matter could negatively impact his ability to get Congress to fund that agenda. Without his campaign promises coming to fruition, stocks could heavily pullback from their current levels, making bonds more attractive to investors.

It is safe to assume that we will see volatility throughout the day, possibly leading to some lenders making intraday revisions to mortgage rates before closing. Whether or not those are increases or improvements depends on how the hearing goes. If it appears to go in President Trumps favor, bond weakness is the safe bet followed by upward revisions to mortgage pricing. On the other hand, if the proceedings look bad for the president, bonds will likely move higher, causing mortgage rates to move lower.

There is nothing of importance taking place tomorrow. We can expect fallout from today?s hearing and evening news to drive bond trading and mortgage pricing as the week comes to a close.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jun 9, 2017

Fridays bond market has opened in negative territory with stocks looking to close the week with gains. The Dow is currently up 67 points while the Nasdaq is up 6 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32 (2.22%), which should push this mornings mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point from Thursdays morning pricing.

Yesterdays Senate testimony from former FBI Director James Comey was interesting although hardly the market mover everyone was expecting. We saw bonds stay within such a tight range that few, if any, major lenders revised pricing intraday yesterday. Whether the proceeding helped or hurt President Trump is up to opinions, but it just did not have much of an impact on the financial or mortgage markets.

There is nothing scheduled for today that is expected to affect mortgage rates. If we see another move in bonds or adjustment to mortgage rates, it likely will be a result of stocks extending this morning?s gains or giving them up. It should be a fairly calm day for bonds and mortgage pricing, but a small intraday change is not out of the question considering this week?s activity and what is coming next week.

Next week is going to be another active one for the financial and mortgage markets, but this will be due to more traditional reasons. There are several important economic releases scheduled along with a couple of Treasury auctions that tend to influence mortgage rates and an afternoon of Fed events. The calendar shows something scheduled each day that is relevant to mortgage rates, although the most important events are set for mid-week.

Unlike many Mondays, the new week kicks off with something that is worth watching. The weeks activities start Monday afternoon with the results of the 10-year Treasury Note auction. Morning trading will probably be driven by stock movement, weekend news on political issues here and election-related events in England that may alter the speed of Britain exiting the European Union. Look for details on all of next weeks events in Sunday evenings weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jun 12, 2017

Mondays bond market has opened in negative territory to start the week with a slight increase in rates. Stocks are also showing losses with the Dow down 74 points and the Nasdaq down 84 points. The bond market is currently down 3/32 (2.21%), which should push this mornings mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point if comparing to Fridays early pricing.

Today has no relevant economic data to watch, but does have the first of two relevant Treasury auctions that could affect mortgage rates. 10-year Treasury Notes are being auctioned today while 30-year Bonds go tomorrow. Results of both auctions will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. If investor demand was high for these securities, we may see bonds rally during early afternoon trading. However, weak interest in these sales could lead to bond selling and an increase in mortgage rates later today.

The rest of the week is extremely busy with six pieces of monthly economic data and another FOMC meeting to deal with that will be accompanied by Fed economic projections and a press conference. We will also be watching for news regarding Attorney General Jeff Sessions? appearance before the Senate intelligence committee. Rumor has it that he will be testifying tomorrow but it is unknown at this time if that will be publicly or in private. Either way, any significant surprises could cause movement in the financial and mortgage markets.

The weeks economic data starts at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow when Mays Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released. It helps us measure inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two readings to this index, the overall and the core data. The core data is considered to be the more important one because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. A large increase could raise concerns about inflation rising, making another Fed rate increase more likely sooner than later. This would not be good news for bond prices or mortgage rates since inflation erodes the value of a bond's future fixed interest payments. Rising inflation causes investors to sell bonds, driving bond prices lower, pushing their yields upward and bringing mortgage rates higher. Analysts are expecting to see no change in the overall reading and 0.2% rise in the core data. Good news for mortgage shoppers would be declines in these.

Overall, we can expect to see an active week for the markets and mortgage pricing. The weeks most important day is Wednesday without a doubt due to the morning data and afternoon Fed events, but we could see noticeable movement in rates tomorrow also. I would not be surprised to see intraday revisions to mortgage rates multiple days, but it's a safe bet to happen at least on Wednesday. This is certainly a week that you should maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jun 13, 2017

Tuesdays bond market has opened fairly flat despite stronger than expected economic news. The major stock indexes are showing moderate gains with the Dow up 63 points and the Nasdaq up 36 points. The bond market is currently down 1/32 (2.21%), which should push this mornings mortgage rates slightly higher than Mondays early pricing.

Yesterdays 10-year Treasury Note auction had mixed results with some benchmarks showing a decent level of investor interest and others not so much. The bond market did not have too much of a reaction to the sale results, but they do prevent us from being too optimistic about today?s 30-year Bond auction. Its results will also be released at 1:00 PM ET, so if there is a reaction, it will come during early afternoon trading.

Mays Producer Price Index (PPI) was posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning. It revealed no change in the overall reading and a 0.3% rise in the more important core data. Analysts were expecting to see no change and a 0.2% increase respectively, indicating core prices that exclude more volatile food and energy costs were a bit stronger at the consumer level of the economy than many had thought. That makes the data slightly negative for the bond market and mortgage rates.

We also need to watch Attorney General Sessions testimony before the Senate intelligence committee this afternoon. We find ourselves in the same position we were in last week with former FBI Director James Comey?s appearance.

Tomorrow is packed with important events that are expected to affect mortgage rates. It begins with the Commerce Department releasing Mays Retail Sales data at 8:30 AM ET. This report gives us a very important measurement of consumer spending, which is closely watched by bond traders because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Analysts are expecting to see that retail-level sales rose 0.1% last month. A decline in sales, signaling a slowing economy, would be great news for the bond market and could lead to lower mortgage rates tomorrow morning. On the other hand, a stronger level of sales will likely create bond weakness and an increase in rates.

The second release of the day is another key monthly measurement of inflation. That will be Mays Consumer Price Index (CPI, also at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow. This is the sister report to the PPI, tracking inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy rather the manufacturing level. As with the PPI, there are two readings that analysts watch. Forecasts are calling for the overall reading to be unchanged while the core reading rises 0.2%. The weaker the readings, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

Tomorrow also has this weeks Fed events with three of them. The first is the 2:00 PM adjournment of the FOMC meeting that began Tuesday. This is when Fed Chair Yellen and company will decide whether or not to change key short-term interest rates. The general consensus is that they will make a .25% bump at this meeting. The recent weak economic data led some market participants to change their timeline of the Feds rate hikes, pushing their predictions for the next increase to the following meeting. Still, the majority believe a move will be made this week. If they don?t make a move, we should see a positive reaction in bonds and mortgage rates.

Also at 2:00 PM ET tomorrow, the Fed will release their updated estimates for future economic activity. They will post their predictions on GDP growth, unemployment and inflation. These could be a market mover if they show even minor revisions to any of the key headline economic numbers. The larger the change, the more likely the markets will react. Revisions that point toward slower economic growth would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates as it would mean the Fed will probably make their next rate increase later than sooner.

They will be followed by a press conference hosted by Fed Chair Yellen at 2:30 PM ET. These press conferences with the media often lead to significant afternoon volatility in the markets and mortgage rates. Any surprises will probably cause a noticeable reaction in the markets. That means there is a high probability of seeing afternoon changes to mortgage rates tomorrow.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jun 14, 2017

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE:
This weeks FOMC meeting has adjourned with an announcement of a quarter point increase to key short-term interest rates, which did not come as a surprise. Their statement indicates they feel the economy continues to grow and that one more rate hike is expected this year followed by three more next year. However, they also acknowledged that inflation still runs below their preferred benchmark of 2.0% per year and that while the employment sector is gaining jobs, the rate of those gains has "moderated" recently.

There was plenty of talk about their intentions for their balance sheet. They currently are taking principal payments on their holdings and reinvesting them into the market. Just about everyone agrees that at some point in the future, they will have to sell holdings and unwind their investments to reduce the size of their balance sheet. What is being debated is when that will start and how rapid the process will be. This afternoons statement and comments made by Fed Chair Yellen in her press conference signal that is should start happening sometime this year and it will be a gradual reduction. That is better news for the bond market than a quick sell-off.

Overall, we did not hear anything too surprising but did get some clarification on a couple key topics. The stock markets have reacted differently with the Dow currently up 9 points, not far off from where it was right before the meeting adjourned. However, the Nasdaq is now down 51 points, well off its pre-adjournment level. The bond market has given back some of its earlier gains, currently up 18/32 (2.14%). This is enough of a move from this mornings pricing for some lenders to revise rates upward by approximately .125 of a discount point before the end of the day.

Both of this mornings important economic reports gave us favorable results. The first was Mays Retail Sales data at 8:30 AM ET. The Commerce Department announced that retail level sales fell 0.3% last month, falling well short of the 0.1% increase that was expected. Even a secondary reading that excludes more volatile and costly auto sales came in well below expectations. This means consumers spent much less last month than many had thought. Because waning consumer spending limits overall economic growth, this news was quite favorable for bonds and mortgage rates.

The second release of the day was Mays Consumer Price Index (CPI) that showed a 0.1% decline while the more important core reading rose only 0.1%. Both readings were slightly weaker than forecasts, indicating inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy were softer than predicted. That is also good news for bonds and mortgage shoppers since rising inflation makes long-term bonds less attractive to investors and also allows the Fed to make more increases to key short-term interest rates.

Tomorrow morning has two pieces of economic data scheduled for release, but neither is as important as today?s data was. We will get last week's unemployment update at 8:30 AM ET. It is expected to show 240,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, down from the previous week?s 245,000 initial claims. This report usually doesn't cause much movement in the markets or mortgage rates unless it shows a significant jump or drop in initial claims for benefits. The higher the number of claims, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates because rising claims is a sign of a softening employment sector.

Mays Industrial Production data will be released at 9:15 AM ET tomorrow, giving us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength. It tracks output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities, but is considered to be only moderately important to mortgage rates. If it reveals that production is rapidly rising, concerns of manufacturing strength may come into play in the bond market and cause selling in bonds. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.1% increase, meaning industrial output was slightly stronger last month than in April. A large decline would be favorable to bonds and mortgage pricing.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jun 15, 2017

http://mymortgagestatus.info/miam/?...51C79639E68412E6C508CEEA0720CC5A75440634613A6

Tamalewagon · Jun 15, 2017

Thursday?s bond market has opened in negative territory, giving back a good portion of yesterday?s gains. Stock are also in selling mode with the Dow down 109 points and the Nasdaq down 86 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32 (2.15%), which should push this morning?s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point if comparing to Wednesday?s morning pricing. Some lenders may have revised upward late yesterday, meaning you may see a smaller increase this morning if yours did revise intraday.

Last week's unemployment figures were posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning. They showed that 237,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, down from the previous week?s 245,000 initial filings. Analysts were expecting to see 240,000, meaning the employment sector was a bit stronger than expected last week. That makes the data negative for bonds and mortgage rates, although this report doesn?t carry enough significance to be the cause of this morning?s selling.

The second release of the day was May's Industrial Production data at 9:15 AM ET. It revealed no change in output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. This matched forecasts, making the data neutral for mortgage rates. Ideally, a decline would have been good news, but the fact that there was no increase in production is somewhat favorable news.

The week closes with two more economic reports tomorrow morning. May's Housing Starts at 8:30 AM ET is the first. It tracks groundbreakings of new home projects, but is not considered to be of high importance. This means it likely will not affect mortgage rates unless its results vary greatly from forecasts. Market analysts are expecting to see an increase in starts of new homes last month. Good news for the bond market and mortgage rates would be a good-sized decline because a weakening housing sector makes broader economic growth less likely.

June's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment will be posted late tomorrow morning. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a minor to moderate impact on the financial markets. It is expected to show a reading of 97.0, which would be a slight decline from May's 97.1. A smaller than expected reading would be considered good news for bonds because it would mean that surveyed consumers were less optimistic about their own financial and employment situations than thought. That often means they are less likely to make large purchases in the near future, but since this report is only moderately important it likely will not influence mortgage rates considerably unless it shows a significant variance from forecasts.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jun 16, 2017

Fridays bond market has opened relatively flat even though we got some pretty favorable economic news this morning. The major stock indexes are showing minor losses with the Dow down 32 points and the Nasdaq down 10 points. The bond market is currently up 1/32 (2.16%), which should keep this mornings mortgage rates at Thursdays early levels.

Mays Housing Starts was posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning. The Commerce Department announced a 5.5% decline in new home groundbreakings when forecasts were calling for an increase in starts. This means the new home portion of the housing sector appears to be much weaker than many had thought. That is good news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, this report doesn?t carry a significant amount of importance, preventing a stronger reaction to the favorable news.

Also posted this morning was the preliminary reading to the University of Michigans Index of Consumer Sentiment for June. It came in at 94.5 that was well below both the 97.0 that was expected and May?s final reading of 97.1. This means that surveyed consumers were much less comfortable with their own financial and employment situations than they were last month. Because waning confidence usually translates into softer levels of consumer spending that fuels economic growth, we can also consider this data good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Next week is very light in terms of relevant economic reports and other events that may influence mortgage rates. There are only a couple of monthly reports scheduled, with the majority of them focusing on the housing sector. None of the weeks events are set for Monday, so expect stocks and weekend news to be the largest factors as the week starts. Look for details on all of next weeks activities in Sunday evenings weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jun 19, 2017

Mondays bond market has opened in negative territory as stocks start the new week with strong gains. The Dow is currently up 104 points while the Nasdaq has gained 72 points. The bond market is currently down 7/32 (2.17%), which should push this mornings mortgage rates slightly higher than Fridays early levels.

There is nothing of importance set for release today. Bonds and mortgage rates will probably be driven by stock movement today. If the major stock indexes extend their current gains, we could see bonds come under more pressure, leading to an upward revision to mortgage rates before the end of the day. On the other hand, if stocks move lower, mortgage rates could follow suit.

The rest of the week brings us the release of only three fairly minor pieces of monthly economic data that may affect mortgage rates, meaning this is likely to be calmer week for mortgage rates than last week was. That is assuming something unexpected does not happen. I believe we will see stocks heavily influence bond trading and mortgage pricing this week with so little scheduled that traditionally affect rates.

The first of this weeks economic reports comes late Wednesday morning when the National Association of Realtors posts Mays Existing Home Sales. We have Leading Economic Indicators Thursday and New Home Sales Friday morning. None of these reports are expected to cause a noticeable move in the financial or mortgage markets.

Overall, it is difficult to label any particular day as the most important due to such a light calendar this week. We still should see movement in rates more than one day, although I am not expecting them to make a big move. It would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets even though there is little happening this week because the markets can get active without notice.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jun 20, 2017

Good day to lock in your rates...

Tuesdays bond market has opened in positive territory with stocks starting the day showing minor losses. The Dow is currently down 22 points while the Nasdaq has lost 18 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32 (2.16%), which should improve this mornings mortgage rates by slightly less than .125 of a discount point if comparing to yesterdays early pricing.

Today has nothing scheduled that is likely to affect bond trading noticeably or mortgage rates. I would not be surprised to see a very calm day, assuming the major stock indexes remain near their current levels. If stocks make a move upward, we could see pressure in bonds that leads to a slight increase in mortgage pricing.

The National Association of Realtors will give us the weeks first piece of relevant economic data when they post Mays Existing Home Sales report at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This report tracks resales of existing homes, giving us a measurement of housing sector strength. It is considered to be moderately important to the markets, but can influence mortgage rates if it shows a sizable difference between forecasts and actual results. Analysts are currently expecting to see a small decline in sales, pointing towards a softening housing sector. That would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. A weaker housing sector makes overall economic growth more difficult, so a sizable decline would be ideal for the bond market and mortgage shoppers.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jun 22, 2017

Thursdays bond market has opened in positive territory with todays somewhat important economic data showing no major surprises. Stocks are mixed but fairly calm, pushing the Dow higher by 8 points and the Nasdaq lower by 7 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32 (2.14%), which should improve this mornings mortgage rates slightly.

Last weeks unemployment figures were posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning, revealing 241,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a small increase from the previous weeks revised total of 238,000, but nearly matched the 240,000 that was expected. Since this is only a weekly snapshot, it usually takes a wide variance from forecasts for the data to affect mortgage rates and this was not enough of a miss to have an impact on todays pricing.

Todays second release was Mays Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) at 10:00 AM ET. The Conference Board announced a 0.3% increase, pegging forecasts. The increase means the indicators are predicting growth in the economy over the next several months. Technically, that is unfavorable news. However, since it matched expectations and is not considered to be a highly important report, it has had a minimal influence on this mornings mortgage rates.

Tomorrows sole report will be Mays New Home Sales report at 10:00 AM ET. This Commerce Department report helps us measure housing sector strength by tracking sales of newly constructed homes. This report is similar to Wednesdays Existing Home Sales report, but covers a much smaller portion of sales than that report does. It is expected to show a rise in sales, but will likely not have much of an impact on mortgage rates because this data gives such a small snapshot of the housing sector. I believe it will take a significant rise in sales or a sizable decline for this data to influence tomorrows mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jun 23, 2017

http://mortgagecommentary.com/commen...id=48220140321

Fridays bond market has opened in negative territory to close the week. The major stock indexes are showing minor gains of 14 points in the Dow and 12 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 3/32 (2.14%), which should push this mornings mortgage rates slightly higher than Thursdays early pricing.

Mays New Home Sales data was released at 10:00 AM ET this morning. The Commerce Department announced that sales of newly constructed homes rose 2.9% last month. This was a smaller increase than was expected, so the headline number looks favorable for bonds and mortgage rates. However, a sizable upward revision to Aprils sales skewed the increase percentage. The actual number of sales came in higher than expected, making the data negative for mortgage rates as it indicates a stronger housing sector.

Next week is much busier than this week was in terms of economic releases and other mortgage rate-relevant events. We have at least one economic report or Treasury auction set each day of the week, so we should see mortgage rates be more active next week.

The week starts off with a pretty important report Monday morning when Mays Durable Goods Orders will be posted. It will give us some insight on the manufacturing sector and demand for big-ticket products. Look for details on it and the rest of the weeks activities that may affect mortgage rates in Sunday evenings weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jun 26, 2017

Mondays bond market has opened in positive territory following weaker than expected manufacturing data. The stock markets are starting the week with noticeable gains, pushing the Dow higher by 91 points and the Nasdaq up 17 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32 (2.12%), which should improve this mornings mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point if comparing to Friday?s early pricing.

This mornings economic data came from the Commerce Department who posted Mays Durable Goods Orders report. It showed a 1.1% decline in new orders for big-ticket products such as appliances and airplanes. This was a larger drop than the 0.5% that was forecasted, indicating a softening manufacturing sector. However, this is not a wide variance for this data. This report is known to be quite volatile, so while the 0.6% difference would be highly noted in many releases, it is not big news for this one. Still, we can consider the data slightly positive for bonds and mortgage rates.

The rest of the week brings us the release of four more economic reports that may influence mortgage rates along with two Treasury auctions. Some of these reports certainly can cause a change in mortgage rates, but none are considered to be key releases. There are also several Fed-member speaking engagements taking place, including Fed Chair Janet Yellens appearance in London tomorrow afternoon. None of them are expected to draw a significant amount of attention, although their words are always of interest to the markets.

Junes Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will be posted late tomorrow morning. This data is relevant to the financial markets because it measures consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are more confident about their own financial and employment situations, they are more apt to make large purchases in the near future, fueling economic growth. If it shows a sizable increase in confidence from last month, we can expect to see a negative reaction in bonds and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a reading of 116.7, down from last month's 117.9 reading. The lower the reading, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates.

Also tomorrow is the first of this weeks two Treasury auctions that we will be watching as they could affect mortgage rates. These sales may influence broader bond trading enough to influence mortgage rates slightly if they show overly strong or weak investor demand. 5-year Notes are being sold tomorrow while 7-year Notes go Thursday. If they are met with a strong demand, we could see bond prices rise during afternoon trading. This could lead to afternoon improvements to mortgage rates also. On the other hand, if the sales draw a lackluster interest from investors, mortgage rates may move slightly higher during afternoon trading these days.

Overall, the most active day for mortgage rates could end up being any of them this week. The single most important report was today?s Durable Goods Orders but tomorrow and Friday are potential active days also. The best candidates for least active day are Wednesday and Thursday. Despite the lack of an event that is expected to be a market mover, we still could see mortgage rates make a noticeable move this week. Therefore, please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if closing soon and still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jun 27, 2017

Tuesdays bond market has opened in negative territory, partly a result of stronger than expected economic data. Stocks are showing minor losses of their own with the Dow down 8 points and the Nasdaq down 23 points. The bond market is currently down15/32 (2.18%), which should push this mornings mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Todays only relevant economic data was Junes Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at 10:00 AM ET. The Conference Board announced a reading of 118.9 that exceeded forecasts of 116.7. It was also an increase from May?s revised 117.6, indicating surveyed consumers were more optimistic about their own financial situations than they were last month. Because higher levels of consumer confidence usually translate into stronger levels of consumer spending that fuels economic growth, todays news was negative for bonds and mortgage rates.

Today also has the first of this weeks two Treasury auctions that may affect mortgage rates. These sales may influence broader bond trading enough to change mortgage rates slightly if they show overly strong or weak investor demand. 5-year Notes are being sold today while 7-year Notes go tomorrow. If they are met with a strong demand, we could see bond prices rise later today. This could lead to afternoon improvements to mortgage rates also. On the other hand, if the sales draw a lackluster interest from investors, mortgage rates may move slightly higher during afternoon trading these days. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during early afternoon hours.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release tomorrow. It likely will be a fairly calm day for mortgage rates unless something unexpected transpires. The 7-year Note auction can lead to a small change in rates, but has little chance of causing a significant move.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jun 28, 2017

Wednesdays bond market has opened in negative territory again. The major stock indexes are showing sizable gains of 117 points in the Dow and 26 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 10/32 (2.23%), which should push this mornings mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point if comparing to Tuesdays early pricing. If your lender made an upward revision intraday yesterday, you may see less of an increase this morning.

Yesterdays 5-year Treasury Note auction did not have much of an impact on yesterdays mortgage rates. The benchmarks used for gauging investor demand for the securities showed average results. That prevents us from being too optimistic about todays 7-year Note sale. If there is a strong demand, we could see bond prices rise and mortgage pricing improve later today. However, if there was a lackluster interest from investors, mortgage rates may move slightly higher during afternoon. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during early afternoon hours.

There was no relevant economic data posted this morning. The selling in bonds is an extension of overnight weakness and yesterdays negativity in the market. Comments made by the European Central Bank (ECB) president caused some ripples in the global bond markets yesterday as they construed his words to mean the ECB may start tapering their current bond buying program. Selling in the global markets carried throughout the night and into this mornings trading here.

Tomorrow has two pieces of economic data, although neither is likely to cause a significant move in the financial or mortgage markets. The first is the second revision to the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading. The GDP is the sum of all products and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best measurement of economic growth or contraction. However, this particular data is quite aged now (covers January through March) and will likely have little impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from previous readings. Market participants are looking more towards next months release of the current quarters initial GDP reading. Last months first revision showed a 1.2% annual rate of growth in the GDP. Tomorrows update is expected to show the same. A larger increase in the GDP would be considered negative for rates as it means stronger economic activity.

Also being posted early tomorrow morning will be last weeks unemployment figures. They are expected to show that 241,000 new claims for benefits were filed, unchanged from the previous week. Ideally, we want to see a large increase in initial claims, indicating employment sector weakness. The higher the number of claims, the better the news it is for mortgage rates. It is worth noting though that this is only a weekly snapshot, so I am not expecting it to have much of an impact on tomorrows mortgage pricing.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jun 29, 2017

Thursdays bond market has opened in negative territory yet again, pushing the benchmark 10-year Treasury Yield above the important threshold of 2.25%. Stocks are also showing losses with the Dow down 36 points and the Nasdaq down 61 points. The bond market is currently down 14/32 (2.27%), which should push this mornings mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point from yesterdays early pricing.

Yesterdays 7-year Treasury Note auction did not go too well. Investor demand was average at best but we saw little reaction in the bond market and mortgage pricing. We did see bonds improve during afternoon trading yesterday, causing some lenders to revise rates slightly lower before the end of the day. However, it was due more to buyers taking advantage of recent selling and not a result of the Treasury auction.

The first of this mornings two 8:30 AM ET economic reports was the second revision to the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading. It showed that the economy grew at an annual rate of 1.4% during the first three months of the year. This was an upward revision of 0.2% from the previous estimate. That makes the data negative for bonds and mortgage rates by theory, but in truth it has not had much of an impact on this mornings trading. Bonds were already showing noticeable losses during overnight trading when this data hit the wires.

The second was last weeks unemployment figures that revealed 244,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was an increase from the previous week?s revised 242,000 initial filings. The higher the number of initial claims, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage pricing. Because we were expecting to see no change in claims, the increase is favorable news. The downside is that this is only a weekly report and does not come close to carrying enough importance to offset the broader selling in bonds.

Tomorrow also has two reports set for release, but both are more important than this mornings data was. May's Personal Income and Outlays data will be posted at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow, giving us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending activity. They are important because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If consumer income is rising, they have more money to spend each month. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 0.3% in income and also a 0.1% rise in the spending portion of the report. Smaller increases in both of these readings would be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

The University of Michigan will close out this week's data when they update their Index of Consumer Sentiment for June late tomorrow morning. This index is another measure of consumer willingness to spend. A downward revision would be considered good news for bonds and rates because waning confidence usually translates into softer levels of consumer spending. Forecasts are calling for little change from this months preliminary reading of 94.5.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jun 30, 2017

Rates are still in the mid to high 3% range for most 30 year fixed products. Most are still at zero points.

Can't Stop, Won't Stop: Sale Prices of Existing Homes Reach New Highs

By Clare Trapasso |

It's not just the temperatures that are rising. The median sale prices of existing homes have also been going up, hitting new highs nationally.

Take a deep breath, buyers. The median price for one of the previously lived-in abodes reached $252,800 in May, according to a recent National Association of Realtors? report. That's up nearly 3.2% from April and was a 5.8% boost from May 2016.

Despite the higher prices (thank the housing shortage for that), about 5.62 million existing homes went under contract in May, according to the seasonally adjusted numbers in the report. That's 1.1% over April's numbers and a 2.7% bump from May 2016. First-time buyers made up about a third of those sales.

Tamalewagon · Jun 30, 2017

Fridays bond market has opened in negative territory following unfavorable economic news and a rebound in stocks. The major stock indexes are recovering some of yesterdays heavy selling, pushing the Dow up 79 points and the Nasdaq up 2 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32 (2.27%), which should keep this mornings mortgage rates at yesterday?s early levels. If your lender improved pricing intraday yesterday, you may see a slight increase in this mornings rates.

There were two economic reports released this morning. The first was Mays Personal Income and Outlays data at 8:30 AM ET. The Commerce Department announced a 0.4% in the income reading and a 0.1% increase in spending. The income reading was a bit stronger than expected (0.3%), meaning consumers had more money to spend. However, the rise in spending matched forecasts. Therefore, we can consider the data neutral to slightly negative for bonds and mortgage rates.

The final relevant report of the week was the University of Michigans revised Index of Consumer Sentiment for June. It came in at 95.1, exceeding the 94.5 that was expected. The higher reading means surveyed consumers were more optimistic about their own financial and employment situations than many had thought. Since rising confidence usually translates into stronger levels of consumer spending, this is bad news for the bond and mortgage markets.

Next week is a holiday-shortened week that brings us some major economic data. The week starts with one of those highly important reports late Monday when June?s ISM manufacturing index will be released. The stock and bond markets will close early Monday ahead of the Independence Day holiday, but many traders will likely be out of the office as part of the long weekend. That could add to the volatility that the ISM report may cause. Look for details on the weeks busy calendar in Sunday evenings weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jul 3, 2017

Mondays bond market has opened in negative territory following stronger than expected economic news and a strong rally in stocks. The Dow is currently up 156 points while the Nasdaq has gained 7 points. The bond market is currently down 10/32 (2.33%), which should push this mornings mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point if comparing to Fridays early pricing. Some lenders revised rates upward Friday afternoon, so if your lender was one of them you should see less of an increase this morning.

Todays only economic data was a very important release. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) posted their June manufacturing index 10:00 AM ET this morning, announcing a reading of 57.8. This exceeded forecasts of 55.0, meaning more surveyed manufacturing executives felt business improved during the month than expected. The jump also indicates the manufacturing sector was stronger in June than in May, making the data bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

The stock markets will close at 1:00 PM ET today while the bond market will close at 2:00 PM ET ahead of tomorrow?s Independence Day holiday. The financial and mortgage markets will be closed tomorrow, reopening for regular trading hours Wednesday morning. It is fairly common to see some additional volatility in the markets ahead of three-day holiday weekends, but since this is a short break, it should be kept to a minimum.

After the holiday, we will get four more monthly economic reports and other events expected to affect the markets and mortgage rates, including the extremely important monthly Employment report. Wednesday brings us two of those events, starting with Mays Factory Orders at 10:00 AM ET. This Commerce Department release is similar to last week?s Durable Goods Orders report. The biggest difference is that this weeks report covers both durable and non-durable goods. It usually doesn't have as much of an impact on the bond market as the durable goods data does, but can lead to changes in mortgage pricing if it varies greatly from forecasts because it measures manufacturing sector strength. Current expectations are showing a 0.5% decline in new orders from Aprils levels. A larger decline in orders would be considered good news for the bond market and could help lower mortgage rates slightly Wednesday.

Also Wednesday, the minutes from the last FOMC meeting will be released during afternoon trading. There is a possibility of the markets reacting to them following their 2:00 PM ET release. I do not believe that they will reveal anything surprising from the last FOMC meeting. Still, market participants will be looking for any indication of when the Fed will make their next rate increase that is currently expected sometime this year. The minutes will tell us how members voted for related motions and could cause more volatility in the markets if there is anything unexpected in them.

We would like to take this opportunity to wish everyone a safe and wonderful July 4th holiday!

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jul 5, 2017

Wednesdays bond market has opened in positive territory following the holiday closing. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow down 14 points and the Nasdaq up 27 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32 (2.33%), but due to weakness late Monday we should still see an increase of approximately .125 of a discount point in this mornings mortgage rates.

This mornings sole piece of relevant economic data was Mays Factory Orders at 10:00 AM ET. The Commerce Department announced a 0.8% decline in new orders at U.S. factories. This was a larger decline than forecasts were calling for, making the data good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Later today, we will also get the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. There is a possibility of the markets reacting to them following their 2:00 PM ET release. I don't believe that they will reveal anything surprising from the last FOMC meeting. Still, market participants will be looking for any indication of when the Fed will make their next rate increase that is currently expected sometime this year. The minutes will tell us how members voted for related motions and could cause more volatility in the markets if there is anything unexpected in them.

Tomorrow brings us the release of two early morning releases that may affect mortgage rates. The first is June's ADP Employment report at 8:15 AM ET. It has the potential to cause some movement in the markets if it shows much stronger or weaker numbers. This report tracks changes in private-sector jobs of the companys clients that use them for payroll processing. While it does draw attention, it is my opinion that it is overrated and is not a true reflection of the broader employment picture. It also is not very accurate in predicting results of the monthly government report that follows a couple days later. Still, because we sometimes see a noticeable reaction to the report, it is on this week's calendar. It is expected to show 185,000 new payrolls. Ideally, the bond market would prefer to see a much smaller increase.

The second will be last weeks unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET. They are expected to show that 240,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, unchanged from the previous weeks initial claims. Since rising claims hints at employment sector weakness, the higher the number the better the news it is for mortgage rates. However, because this is only a weekly report, it likely will have little impact on tomorrows mortgage rates unless it shows a significant variance.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jul 6, 2017

Why was Jerry?s Rate so Much Lower?

By: Mortgage News Daily

(Not written by Wenhe Mortgage and Realty - Call me for your personal scenario)

A primer to the misunderstood factors that determine Jerry?s (and Shawn?s, and your) interest rates...

The excitement in Shawn?s voice was palpable. He called me based on his friend Jerry?s recommendation. Rates hit a multi-month low during January 2015, and I had just closed Jerry?s home purchase at an appealing 30 year fixed rate. The transaction closed as planned, with no surprises, and Jerry was pleased enough to pass my info along to Shawn, who was considering refinancing his rental condo.

As Shawn and I continued our conversation, he shared more details: he owed $194,900, the condo?s approximate value was $245,000, and his mid credit score was 691. He paid his own taxes and insurance, rather than escrowing them with his payment. He also had a small 2nd mortgage which he wanted to keep in place. Shawn asked if he could get the same rate Jerry did. My answer was ?not after your loan level pricing adjustments?, which prefaced a detailed discussion.

Explaining loan level pricing adjustments (LLPAs) is a critical component of every originator?s duties. LLPAs are cost variations applied to all Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac mortgages, ostensibly to set loan pricing by various risk factors. The criteria include equity, property type, credit scores, loan purpose, loan term, loan size, loan type, PMI type, occupancy, subordinate financing, whether taxes/insurance are escrowed, number of units, and possibly the moon?s current phase. If that seems like a lot of moving parts, it is! Fannie Mae explains LLPAs in a concise 6 page release.

In Jerry?s transaction, the LLPAs were minimal. His high scores (761), substantial down payment (30%), loan purpose (purchase), property type (single family home), and occupancy (owner occupied) combined to influence his pricing by a mere .25% of the loan size. Since his loan was $300,000, the total impact of his LLPAs was $750 added to the pricing on his loan, a fairly insignificant amount.

Shawn, however, was facing an entirely different scenario. His 691 score, combined with an investment condo refinance on a property with less than 25% equity, not escrowing, and subordinating a second mortgage resulted in a remarkable total price adjustment of 7.125% of his loan size. Based on borrowing $194,900, the impact of his adjustments would have totaled $13,886! Once Shawn regained consciousness after I explained his pricing, we both concluded his best option was remaining in his current loan.

We also discussed how Shawn could lessen his LLPAs? cost if he decided to refinance in the future. Raising his credit scores, shortening his loan term, escrowing his taxes/insurance, and borrowing a smaller % of his condo?s value were all factors that could make his loan far more affordable down the road.

When I speak with potential clients who ask the invariable ?what would my rate be today? question, my answer is ?it depends, let?s talk about your scenario?. A rate quote provided without addressing all Fannie?s pricing factors is virtually guaranteed to be incorrect; the only real question is by how much!

Tamalewagon · Jul 6, 2017

Good video if you are trying to purchase a home right now or in the future...

http://mymortgagestatus.info/miam/?...D2336A090E51E4C1AD548AEB118C83C76D2CB3016CD2D

Tamalewagon · Jul 7, 2017

Quick FYI...

Our rates are still in the high 3% range at zero points for conforming 30 year fixed rate and term options.

For the Hi-Balance conforming 30 year fixed product, we can still get you 4% at zero points for the 30 year fixed product.

Call today for a checkup on your mortgage scenario to see if we can make your financial life easier.

Options shown above are based on a 740 fico, 70% loan to value for rate and term refinances. Terms may vary and pricing is subject to change without notification. As brokers, we shop several different lenders in the industry to find the lowest rates available at any given time. Big banks and credit unions cannot do this and don't have the low rates and under 30 day turn times that we have.

Shop us against anyone.

Tamalewagon · Jul 10, 2017

Mondays bond market has opened up slightly with little to drive trading and stocks starting the week mixed but calm. The Dow is currently down 5 points while the Nasdaq is up 2 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (2.37%), which should keep this mornings mortgage rates pretty close to Fridays early levels.

There is no relevant economic data or other events scheduled for today that are likely to affect mortgage rates. However, the rest of the week brings us the release of six economic reports for the bond market to digest in addition to semi-annual congressional testimony by Fed Chair Janet Yellen and two Treasury auctions. Most of the data that is being posted is considered to be of high importance, meaning we will likely see more volatility in the financial markets and mortgage pricing this week. It starts off light, but the week is actually has many mortgage-relevant reports and other events.

Wednesday is when it all starts with semi-annual Fed congressional testimony, the 10-year Treasury Note auction and the release of the Fed Beige Book report. Fed Chair Janet Yellen?s appearance before the House Financial Services committee takes place in the morning while the auction results and Beige Book will come out during afternoon trading.

Overall, Wednesday has the potential to be the most active day of the week, depending on what type of reaction the markets have to the Fed?s congressional testimony. If there are any surprises in her testimony or answers, the reaction in the markets will probably be strong. Friday is also a good candidate with four economic reports, two of which are important. The calmest day will likely be today or tomorrow, although corporate earnings season starts this week. Better than expected earnings would be good for stocks and have a negative impact on bonds. Disappointing earnings should fuel bond buying and lower mortgage rates. With so much going on this week, it is highly recommended that you maintain contact with your mortgage professional if closing soon and still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jul 11, 2017

Tuesdays bond market has opened flat with nothing of importance taking place or being released today. Stocks are showing minor gains of 5 points in the Dow and 17 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is nearly unchanged from yesterdays close (2.37%), but we should see a slight improvement in this mornings mortgage rates due to strength late yesterday. The improvement should be less than .125 of a discount point from yesterdays morning pricing.

Tomorrow does not have a relevant morning economic release but does have several events that could easily influence the markets and mortgage pricing. They begin at 10:00 AM Et tomorrow when Fed Chair Janet Yellen will start her semi-annual update about the economy and monetary policy before Congress. Her prepared statement should be released before her appearance, giving the markets an advance look. She will speak to the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow and the Senate Banking Committee Thursday. Her testimony will be broadcast and watched very closely. Analysts and traders will be looking for the Feds opinion on the status of the economy and their expectations of future growth, inflation and unemployment. These topics should create a great deal of volatility in the markets during early trading, the prepared testimony and the Q&A session that follows. If she indicates that inflation may become a point of concern or anything that hints at rapid economic growth, we can expect to see the bond market fall and mortgage rates rise tomorrow.

The first of this weeks two important Treasury auctions will take place tomorrow when 10-year Notes will be sold. That sale will be followed by a 30-year Bond auction Thursday. These sales can influence market trading in bonds and possibly affect mortgage rates. If the sales are met with a strong demand from investors, particularly tomorrow's auction, we could see afternoon improvements in bonds that could lead to downward revisions to mortgage rates. However, if buyers stay on the sidelines, we may see bonds fall after results are posted at 1:00 PM ET and mortgage rates move higher those days.

Lastly, the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book report at 2:00 PM ET tomorrow. This report is named simply after the color of its cover, but it is considered to be important to the Fed when determining monetary policy during their FOMC meetings. It details economic activity and conditions by Fed region throughout the U.S. If there are any significant changes in conditions since the last update, we could see afternoon moves in the markets and mortgage rates. Signs of weakness should translate into bond strength and better mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jul 12, 2017

Wednesdays bond market has opened in positive territory as the markets react favorably to Fed comments. The major stock indexes are in rally mode, pushing the Dow higher by 160 points and the Nasdaq up by 62 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32 (2.32%), which should improve this mornings mortgage rates slightly if comparing to Tuesdays early rates.

Kicking off todays schedule was day one of the Feds semi-annual monetary policy update to congress. Her prepared statement was released before her 10:00 AM ET appearance in front of the House Financial Services committee. It indicated that the Fed felt the economy will continue to grow slowly but solidly. They feel the employment sector will continue to add jobs at a decent pace and that consumer and business spending will fuel growth. Inflation is still below preferred levels, which may influence future actions by the Fed.

Todays proceedings point towards more increases to key short-term interest rates but not at a quicker pace than previously thought. Another point of high interest is what the Fed will do with its massive balance sheet and when they will start selling holdings. It seems that we have been reassured that the reduction in the balance sheet will be slow and will start some time this year. This was in line with previous expectations also. Overall, I believe we are seeing more of a sigh of a relief in the bond market than anything else. A situation where no bad news was good news.

The first of this weeks two important Treasury auctions is also taking place today. 10-year Treasury Notes are being sold today while 30-year Bonds go tomorrow. These sales can influence market trading in bonds and possibly affect mortgage rates. If the sales are met with a strong demand from investors, particularly todays auction, we could see afternoon improvements in bonds that could lead to downward revisions to mortgage rates. However, if buyers stay on the sidelines, we may see bonds fall after results are posted at 1:00 PM ET and mortgage rates move higher during early afternoon trading.

We also have the Fed Beige Book report to watch for at 2:00 PM ET. This report is named simply after the color of its cover, but it is considered to be important to the Fed when determining monetary policy during their FOMC meetings. It details economic activity and conditions by Fed region throughout the U.S. If there are any significant changes in conditions since the last update, we could see afternoon moves in the markets and mortgage rates. Signs of weakness should translate into bond strength and better mortgage rates.

Tomorrow has several more events taking place that have the potential to affect mortgage rates. The first economic data of the week is Junes Producer Price Index (PPI) from the Labor Department at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow. It is very important data because it measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. It is expected to show a 0.1% decline in the overall reading and a 0.2% increase in the core data reading. The core reading is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices, revealing a more reliable inflation reading. The bond market should react favorably if we get weaker than expected readings, but a larger than expected rise in the core reading could send mortgage rates higher.

Also at 8:30 AM ET will be the release of last weeks unemployment figures. They are expected to show that 245,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, down from the previous weeks 248,000 initial claims. Since rising claims hints at employment sector weakness, the higher the number the better the news it is for mortgage rates. However, because this is only a weekly report, it likely will have little impact on tomorrows mortgage rates unless it shows a significant variance.

Furthermore, besides the 30-year Bond auction, day two of the Feds semi-annual update will take place (Senate Banking Committee) tomorrow. We usually see the most movement in the markets and mortgage rates during the first day of this testimony. This is because the speakers prepared words for both appearances are quite similar to each other if not the same, meaning that the second day of testimony rarely gives us anything we did not hear during the first day. The general exception is something asked or answered during the Q&A portion of the second days appearance.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Deja_Vu · Jul 12, 2017

Can you do a Arizona home loan refinance yet?

Our new House will be complete in Nov...Need to refinance before January.

Thanks!

Tamalewagon · Jul 13, 2017

Deja_Vu said:
Can you do a Arizona home loan refinance yet?

Our new House will be complete in Nov...Need to refinance before January.

Thanks!

negative :grumble: Thanks for thinking of me though. :thumbsup

Tamalewagon · Jul 13, 2017

Thursdays bond market has opened in negative territory, giving back some of yesterdays gains. Stocks are showing minor losses during early trading with the Dow down 17 points and the Nasdaq down 5 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32 (2.34%), which should lead to a slight increase in this mornings mortgage rates.

Yesterdays 10-year Treasury Note auction was uneventful. The benchmarks indicated an average level of interest in the securities. Bonds had a slight negative reaction once results were posted at 1:00 PM ET, but not enough of a move to affect mortgage rates. That leaves us unable to be too optimistic about today?s 30-year Bond auction. Its results will be released at 1:00 PM again, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading.

Also released yesterday afternoon was the Fed Beige Book that details economic activity and conditions by Fed region throughout the U.S. It showed that the economy continued to grow at a modest or moderate pace in the majority of the Feds 12 districts. That can be considered slightly negative news for bonds. It also showed that inflationary pressures subsided and that while consumer spending continued to strengthen, it was at a slower pace. Many of the Feds districts reported weakening auto sales. Weaker inflation and signs of slowing consumer spending is good news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, we saw little reaction in the bond market with no impact on mortgage rates.

Junes Producer Price Index (PPI) was posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning, revealing a 0.1% rise in the overall reading and a 0.1% increase in the more important core data. Analysts were expecting to see a slight decline in the overall reading and a 0.1% increase in the core data. What the readings indicate is that prices at the manufacturing level of the economy were a little stronger than expected, but is the more volatile food and energy costs were excluded, inflation was a bit softer than expected. Since inflation devalues bonds, we can consider the data neutral-to-slightly favorable for mortgage rates.

Last weeks unemployment figures were released early this morning also. They showed that 247,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a decline from the previous weeks revised 250,000 initial filings, hinting at a strengthening employment sector during the week. However, the size of the decline is in line with forecasts before revisions, so we are seeing no influence on this mornings bond trading or mortgage pricing.

We also have day two of Fed Chair Janet Yellens semi-annual monetary policy testimony before the Senate Bank Committee. She is speaking at 10:00 AM and her prepared statement mirrored yesterdays, so we have seen little reaction so far. If we get any surprises, it will come in the Q&A session shortly.

Tomorrow has four pieces of economic data being posted, two of which are considered to be major releases. Junes Retail Sales report will start the day at 8:30 AM ET. This data is considered to be of high importance because it measures consumer spending. Consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, so any related data is watched closely. The Commerce Department is expected to say that sales at retail level establishments rose 0.1% last month. A larger than expected increase in sales will likely cause bond selling and lead to higher mortgage rates since it would mean consumers are spending more than thought. That would point towards economic growth that makes bonds less attractive to investors.

Next up is Junes Consumer Price Index (CPI), also at 8:30 AM ET. This is a mirror of todays PPI with the exception that this report measures inflation at the more important consumer level of the economy. Analysts have forecasted no change in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data. Higher than expected readings could raise future inflation fears and push mortgage rates higher, while readings that fall short of forecasts should lead to lower rates tomorrow.

Junes Industrial Production data is the third report of the day, coming at 9:15 AM ET. It measures output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities, giving us an indication of manufacturing sector strength. It is expected to show a 0.4% rise in production, indicating that the manufacturing sector strengthened during the month. That would basically be bad news for bonds, however the CPI and Retail Sales will take center stage during early morning trading.

The final report of the week will be the University of Michigans Index of Consumer Sentiment just before 10:00 AM ET. This index is released in a preliminary form each month and then followed up two weeks later with a final reading. The preliminary reading for July will be posted tomorrow and is expected to show little change from June's final reading of 95.1. This would indicate that consumers were just as comfortable with their own financial and employment situations this month as they were last month. It is believed that if consumer confidence in their own finances is rising, they are more apt to make a large purchase in the near future. And with consumer spending making up such a large part of our economy, investors pay close attention to reports such as these. So, a decline in confidence would be good news for mortgage rates because it means many consumers will probably delay making a large purchase in the immediate future, limiting economic growth.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jul 13, 2017

Some home improvements are nice to have but probably won't add value to a home. Find out which ones in this short video. It will only take a minute.

http://mymortgagestatus.info/miam/?...5127601765363F538A4B75023F68712C1E56858DAEB98

Tamalewagon · Jul 14, 2017

Fridays bond market has opened in positive territory following a batch of weaker than expected economic data. The major stock indexes are posting minor gains, pushing the Dow up 11 points and the Nasdaq up 6 points. The bond market is currently up 13/32 (2.30%), which should improve this mornings mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point if comparing to Thursdays morning pricing.

Yesterdays 30-year Treasury Bond auction was also uneventful with investor demand being at similar levels to Wednesdays 10-year Note sale. The average level of interest in the securities prevented much of a reaction in bonds or mortgage rates yesterday afternoon.

This morning was quite active in terms of economic reports. We started with June's Retail Sales at 8:30 AM that showed sales fell 0.2% last month. This was weaker than the 0.1% increase that was expected. Another reading within the report that tracks sales excluding costly and volatile auto transactions, giving us more reliable and stable info, revealed a 0.2% decline when forecasts had it rising by the same amount. This report indicates that consumers spent much less last month than many had thought. Because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy and bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions, this is clearly very good news for mortgage rates.

Also at 8:30 AM ET this morning was Junes Consumer Price Index (CPI) that gives us a measurement of inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy. It came in unchanged from May?s reading with the core data rising 0.1%. The overall reading pegged expectations but the more important core data that excludes volatile food and energy costs was expected to rise 0.2%. The smaller increase means that core inflationary pressures were softer at the consumer level of the economy than analysts predicted. That makes the report favorable for bonds and mortgage rates as higher levels of inflation make bonds less appealing to investors and causes the Fed to raise short-term rates at a quicker pace.

Junes Industrial Production data was released at 9:15 AM ET. It showed a 0.4% rise in production at U.S. factories, mines and utilities, matching forecasts. This is a sign of manufacturing sector strength, but since it didn?t show surprise strength or weakness and this is only a moderately important release, we have seen little impact in this mornings trading.

The final report of the week came at 10:00 AM ET when the University of Michigan posted their Index of Consumer Sentiment for July. The index stood at 93.1, falling short of Junes final reading of 95.1. Analysts were expecting not to see much of a change from Junes final reading, meaning surveyed consumers were less optimistic about their own financial and employment situations than many had thought. That is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because waning confidence means consumers are less likely to make a large purchase in the near future, limiting economic growth.

Next week has very little scheduled that is expected to influence mortgage rates. Corporate earnings season gets into high gear next week, so we can expect stock movement to be the biggest impact on bond trading and mortgage rates. Talk of the healthcare debate in Washington may also come into play, but most likely just in a minor role. Look for details on next weeks calendar in Sunday evenings weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jul 17, 2017

Mondays bond market has opened up slightly, but not enough to erase Fridays afternoon weakness. Stocks are starting the week pretty calm with the Dow down 1 point and the Nasdaq up 14 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32 (2.32%). However, due to the selling mid-day Friday, you should see an increase of approximately .125 of a discount point in this morning?s pricing if your lender did not revise upward intraday Friday.

Today has nothing of importance scheduled for release. Neither does tomorrow. In fact, the week brings us very little that is expected to affect mortgage rates with only two monthly economic reports on the calendar. Corporate earnings season gets into high gear, which may end up being the biggest influence on rates.

The two monthly reports come Wednesday and Thursday, but both are considered to be of low or moderate importance. We have no key or highly important economic releases or other events taking place this week. We should see a much calmer week in the markets and mortgage rates than the past couple. No single day stands out as the most important day of the week and the least active day will probably be today or Friday. Despite the lack of key economic data or other events that clearly will cause volatility, it still would be prudent to maintain contact with you mortgage professional as momentum can pick up at any time, especially if earnings are generally strong or weak.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jul 18, 2017

Lower rates today...good morning to lock if you are pulling the trigger on a refinance or purchase. Rates may increase this afternoon since the dip in rates is unsupported by relevant data.

Tuesdays bond market has opened in positive territory despite a lack of relevant data. The major stock indexes are mixed with the Dow down 57 points and the Nasdaq up 2 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32 (2.27%), which should improve this morning?s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

There is nothing if importance being released today, so there is no reason to fear a change of direction in bonds. As long as stocks remain near current levels, bonds and mortgage rates are likely to follow suit the rest of the day.

Junes Housing Starts will be released 8:30 AM ET tomorrow, giving us an indication of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand. It usually does not cause much movement in mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Tomorrows release is expected to show a rise in construction starts of new homes last month. The lower the number of starts, the better the news it is for the bond market, as it would indicate a weaker than expected new home portion of the housing sector.

Alcoa is expected to post their earnings after the market closes tomorrow, officially kicking off the heart of earnings season. The release itself will have an impact on overnight and early morning trading Thursday, meaning we will not see an influence on mortgage rates until Thursdays early pricing. This company is not necessarily key to gauging economic strength, but it is the first Dow component company that posts earnings each quarter. Since it is the first look into Dow-related earnings, it draws plenty of attention in the markets. However, there are plenty of other earnings releases that will also be in the spotlight. Generally speaking, weaker corporate earnings translates into stock selling that makes bonds more attractive to investors. As bond buying pushes prices higher, yields fall and mortgage rates usually track bond yields.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jul 19, 2017

Wednesdays bond market has opened down slightly following stronger than expected housing news. The stock markets are showing gains of 22 points in the Dow and 24 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 2/32 (2.26%), which should keep this mornings mortgage rates at yesterdays levels.

Todays only relevant economic data was Junes Housing Starts at 8:30 AM ET. It showed that new home groundbreakings jumped 8.3% last night, exceeding forecasts. The number of starts was much higher than analysts were expecting to see, hinting at strong growth in the new home portion of the housing sector. However, an upward revision to Mays starts meant that the headline percentage increase was not as much of a surprise as the data actually showed. Either way, the data was stronger than expected, making the report negative news for bonds and mortgage rates. Fortunately, this is not considered to be a highly important release or we would have seen a much stronger impact on todays pricing.

Tomorrow has two minor reports scheduled. The first of them will be last weeks unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET. They are expected to show that 245,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, down from the previous weeks 247,000 initial claims. Since rising claims indicates employment sector weakness, the higher the number the better the news it is for mortgage rates. Although, because this is only a weekly report, it likely will have little influence on tomorrows mortgage rates unless it shows a significant variance.

Late tomorrow morning will be the release of Junes Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). This Conference Board index attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. While it is not a factual report, it still is considered to be of moderate importance to the bond market. It is expected to show a 0.4% increase, meaning it is predicting gains in economic growth over the next few months. A decline in the index would be good news for the bond and mortgage markets.

We also have corporate earnings to watch for. Stronger than thought earnings results should fuel stock buying and possibly lead to bond selling that pushes mortgage rates higher. On the other hand, weaker earnings reports usually causes funds to shifts from stocks into bonds. That would benefit mortgage shoppers.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jul 20, 2017

Thursdays bond market has opened in positive territory even though todays only economic data showed unfavorable results. The major stock indexes are posting minor losses during early trading with the Dow down 38 points and the Nasdaq down 10 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32 (2.25%), which should keep this mornings mortgage rates at yesterdays levels.

Last weeks unemployment figures were posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning, revealing that 233,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed. This was a noticeable decline from the previous weeks revised 248,000 initial claims and lower than the 245,000 that was expected. That indicates the employment sector was stronger than thought last week, making the data negative for bonds and mortgage rates. However, this is only a weekly snapshot. Therefore, we are not seeing much of a reaction in the markets.

The Conference Board gave us Junes Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) at 10:00 AM ET. It showed a 0.6% increase, exceeding forecasts of a 0.4% rise. The increase means the indicators are predicting growth in the economy over the next several months. Fortunately, this is also a minor release, preventing much of an impact on this mornings mortgage rates.

Tomorrow has nothing of importance scheduled for release. If we see a move in mortgage rates it likely will be a result of stock gains or losses. Generally speaking, stock gains usually translates into bond weakness and an upward move in mortgage rates. On the other hand, losses in stocks should push mortgage rates lower.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jul 21, 2017

Fridays bond market has opened in positive territory, looking to close the week on a good note. (Rates are lower making this a good day to lock) Stocks are showing minor losses, pushing the Dow lower by 66 points while the Nasdaq is down 11 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32 (2.24%), which should keep this morning?s mortgage rates at yesterday?s levels.

Today has nothing of importance scheduled, so we can expect to see a fairly calm day for mortgage rates. The benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield stands at a very important resistance point. If we close below the 2.25% level, it would give us great hope that mortgage rates will move lower. On the other hand, if that resistance is too strong, it?s a warning that mortgage rates are more likely to move higher in the immediate future than they are to move much lower. We do have some key events coming next week that carry enough importance to break that resistance level. However, that is assuming they bring us favorable results. Unfavorable results next week should easily push the 10-year back into the mid-2.3 range, causing mortgage rates to move higher.

Next week will be much busier than this week was with something scheduled every day that has the potential to affect mortgage rates. We also have another FOMC meeting taking place. Although, it is not expected to result in a bump to key short-term rates. Still, the meeting can easily cause a great deal of volatility in the markets. The rest of the agenda is wide ranging, from housing data to consumer sentiment readings and manufacturing strength. The key report will be the initial 2nd quarter GDP reading at the end of the week.

The week starts Monday with one of the moderately important releases. The National Association of Realtors will give us June?s Existing Home Sales late Monday morning. It tracks housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. Look for details on it and the rest of the week?s activities in Sunday evening?s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Jul 24, 2017

Mondays bond market has opened down slightly despite weaker than thought housing data. Stocks are starting the week mixed with the Dow down 60 points and the Nasdaq up 1 point. The bond market is currently down 4/32 (2.25%). That is not enough of a move to show much of a change in mortgage pricing, meaning we should see this mornings rates be very close to Fridays level.

Todays only relevant economic data was Junes Existing Home Sales from the National Association of Realtors at 10:00 AM ET. They announced that home resales fell 1.8% last month, which was a little larger of a decline than was expected. The decline in sales is favorable for bonds and mortgage rates, but the size of the variance from expectations was small and this is only a moderately important release. Therefore, we have seen little reaction to the news.

The rest of the week brings us the release of six more economic reports that may impact mortgage rates, one of which is considered to be highly influential. In addition to the economic data, there is also another FOMC meeting that certainly has the potential to cause chaos in the markets and a couple of Treasury auctions mid-week. There is at least one event set for every day, so there is a strong likelihood of seeing noticeable mortgage rate movement and possibly multiple intra-day revisions this week.

Tomorrow has one of those reports being released. The Conference Board will post their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for July at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This index measures consumer sentiment, giving us an idea of consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are more confident in their own financial and employment situations, they are apt to make large purchases in the near future. This is important because consumer spending makes up such a large portion of our economy. If the CCI reading is weaker than expected, meaning that consumers were less confident than thought and likely will delay making a large personal purchase, we may see bond prices rise and mortgage rates drop. Current forecasts are calling for a reading of 116.8, which would be a weaker reading than June's 118.9 and indicate consumers are a little less comfortable with their finances than they were last month.

Overall, Wednesday has great potential to be the most active day for mortgage rates due to the FOMC meeting. However, there is also a chance that it will yield no surprises and cause little change to rates. If thats the case, Friday will probably end up being the most important day of the week. The calmest day could be today or tomorrow. There is plenty on tap this week that may influence mortgage rates, so please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

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