Mortgage Market Update/Purchase and Refinance Mortgage info

[Flying_Lavey]

Fridays bond market has opened in positive territory despite mostly stronger than expected economic data. The major stock indexes are nearly unchanged with the Dow down 1 points and the Nasdaq down 3 points. The bond market is currently up 9/32 (2.50%) which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately.125 of a discount point.

The first of this mornings three economic reports was Februarys Industrial Production report at 9:15 AM ET. It showed now change from Januarys level, falling short of the 0.2% increase that was expected. This means that output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities was lighter than many had thought. Because that indicates the manufacturing sector may be flat, we can consider the data good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Next up was the University of Michigans Index of Consumer Sentiment for March. They announced a reading of 97.6, exceeding forecasts of 96.8. This was also an increase from Februarys 96.3, meaning consumers felt better about their own financial situations than they did last month. Since higher levels of confidence usually translate into stronger consumer spending, this report is a negative for mortgage rates.

The final report of the week was Februarys Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). The Conference Board announced a 0.6% rise in the indicators, meaning they are predicting moderate economic growth over the next several months. Analysts were expecting to see a 0.5% rise, so this report also should be considered unfavorable for bonds and mortgage rates.

Next week has only a couple of relevant economic reports scheduled for release,none of which are set for Monday. It is a much lighter week than this one was in terms of data and other events that are likely to influence mortgage rates. Look for details on next week's calendar in Sunday evening's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

I'm going to be subscribing and watching this thread closely now.

How do these factors correlate to USDA loan rates? Are those similar in their behavior as traditional loans? Or do their rates react differently?

 

[Tamalewagon]

Mondays bond market has opened up slightly, but not enough to affect mortgage pricing. Stocks are opening the new week the same way, with the Dow up 8 points and the Nasdaq up 1 point. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (2.49%), which should keep this mornings mortgage rates at Fridays morning levels.

There is nothing of importance scheduled for release today. The rest of the week brings us the release of only three monthly economic reports for the markets to digest. Only one of them is considered to be very important to mortgage rates and it comes at the end of the week. The first part of the week should proceed slowly. The first report will come late Wednesday morning when Februarys Existing Home Sales report is posted.

We do have a large number of Fed member speaking engagements scheduled this week. These often are a non-factor for mortgage rates, but do carry the potential to come into play. If their speeches give us any significant surprises, particularly about monetary policy issues, the markets will react. This is particularly true during weeks of little economic data or other events to drive bond trading.

Overall, there is good reason to believe that we could have a calmer week for mortgage rates than the past couple have been. Friday has the most important report, so is the best candidate for most important day. However, the markets could get active at any time, so it would be prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Tuesdays bond market has opened in positive territory, extending yesterdays late rally. The major stock indexes are showing losses of 55 points in the Dow and 18 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 4/32 (2.44%), which with yesterday?s afternoon strength should improve this mornings mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point. If your lender improved rates intraday yesterday, you should see less of an improvement in this mornings pricing.

Today also has nothing of relevance scheduled for release. This should allow bonds to remain positive unless something unexpected happens. The rest of the week brings us the release of only three monthly economic reports for the markets to digest and only one will draw a lot of attention.

We do have a large number of Fed member speaking engagements scheduled this week. These often are a non-factor for mortgage rates, but do carry the potential to come into play. If their speeches give us any significant surprises, particularly about monetary policy issues, the markets will react. This is particularly true during weeks of little economic data or other events to drive bond trading.

The first report will come at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow when Februarys Existing Home Sales report is posted by the National Association of Realtors. It will give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. This moderately important release is expected to reveal a decline in home resales, meaning the housing sector softened last month. Ideally, bond traders would prefer to see a large decline in sales, pointing towards a rapidly weakening housing sector. Bad news would be a sizable increase in sales, indicating that the housing sector is gaining momentum. That could be troublesome for the bond market and mortgage rates because housing strength makes broader economic growth more likely.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Wednesdays bond market has opened in positive territory again as the recent bond rally continues. Another negative open for stocks following an ugly afternoon yesterday is helping boost bond prices also. The Dow is currently down 82 points while the Nasdaq has lost 2 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32 (2.37%), which with yesterdays afternoon strength should improve this mornings mortgage rates by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point. Many lenders improved pricing yesterday afternoon. If your lender was one of them, you should see a smaller improvement this morning.

Februarys Existing Home Sales report was released by the National Association of Realtors at 10:00 AM ET this morning. They announced a decline in home resales of 3.7% last month. That was a larger decline than many had expected, meaning the housing sector weakened more than many had thought. Because a softening housing sector makes broader economic growth less likely, we can consider this morning?s news favorable for bonds and mortgage rates.

Tomorrow has two minor pieces of economic data set for release. The first is Februarys New Home Sales figures at 8:30 AM. The Commerce Department is expected to announce a small increase in sales of newly constructed homes. This report tracks a much smaller percentage of home sales than today's housing report did, so it should have a much weaker influence on the markets and mortgage pricing. A large increase in sales would be negative for the bond market and mortgage pricing because it would point towards economic strength.

The other report coming early tomorrow morning will give last weeks unemployment figures. They are expected to show that 240,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, down from the previous week?s 241,000 initial claims. Since rising claims hints at employment sector weakness, the higher the number the better the news it is for mortgage rates. However, because this is only a weekly report, it likely will have little impact on tomorrows mortgage rates unless it shows a significant variance.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Thursdays bond market has opened in negative territory following mixed economic news. Anticipation over todays Health Care vote is also affecting early trading. Stocks are showing minor gains with the Dow up 28 points and the Nasdaq up 9 points. The bond market is currently down 3/32 (2.41%), which should push this mornings mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Februarys New Home Sales was the first of this mornings two pieces of economic data. The Commerce Department announced at 8:30 AM ET that sales of newly constructed homes rose 6.1% last month, exceeding expectations. This points towards stronger growth in the new home portion of the housing sector, making the data negative for bonds and mortgage rates.

Also posted early this morning was last weeks unemployment figures that showed 258,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was higher than the 240,000 that was expected and an increase from the previous weeks revised 243,000 initial claims. Because rising claims is a sign of a weakening employment sector, we can consider this news positive for mortgage rates.

We are also watching political current events that are likely to cause at least a short-term move in the markets. The House of Representatives is expected to vote on their proposed Health Care plan. What we can expect is a knee-jerk reaction once the vote is finalized. If it passes the House, I believe we will see negative reaction in bonds and quite possibly, upward revisions to rates. On the other hand, failure to vote or even no vote would signal President Trumps pro-business and pro-economic growth agenda may not come into fruition after all. Since stocks have rallied and bonds have fallen (higher yields and mortgage rates) since the election based on that agenda, we should see stocks backtrack and bonds rally.

Tomorrows only relevant economic data will be Februarys Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET. This Commerce Department report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking new orders for big-ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years such as electronics, appliances and airplanes. This data is known to be volatile from month to month but is still considered to be of fairly high importance to the markets. Analysts are expecting it to show an increase in new orders of approximately 1.3%. A larger increase in orders would be considered negative for bonds as it would indicate strength in the manufacturing sector and could lead to higher mortgage rates Friday morning. Since these orders are volatile, it will take a wider variance from forecasts for it to move mortgage rates than other data requires.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

(please note, these are not necessary the thoughts and opinions of Wenhe Mortgage and Realty but merely a general opinion from Mortgage Commentary that we use to gauge the direction of the market).

 

[Tamalewagon]

Check the rates www.WMRLoans.com

Fridays bond market has opened fairly flat as the markets await news from Washington on the healthcare vote. Stocks are showing gains with the Dow up 44 points and the Nasdaq up 34 points. The bond market is currently up 1/32 (2.41%), but due to weakness yesterday we should see an increase of approximately .125 of a discount point in today?s mortgage rates. If your lender made an intraday upward revision yesterday, you likely will see little change this morning.

Februarys Durable Goods Orders report was posted at 8:30 AM ET. The Commerce Department announced a 1.7% increase in new orders for big-ticket products such as airplanes and appliances. This was a little stronger than the 1.3% rise that was expected, but because this data is known to be quite volatile from month to month, the variance didn?t raise any concern. In fact, a secondary reading that excludes more costly and volatile airplane orders came in lighter than forecasted. While this is normally considered a pretty important report, it has not had much of an impact on todays trading or mortgage pricing.

The healthcare bill that was expected to be voted on in the House of Representatives yesterday was delayed and it appears that it is going to happen today. Keep in mind that passage does not mean it is law or taking effect. What we can expect though is a knee-jerk reaction once the vote is finalized. If it passes the House, I believe we will see negative reaction in bonds and quite possibly, upward revisions to rates. On the other hand, failure to vote or even another no vote would signal President Trumps pro-business and pro-economic growth agenda may not come into fruition after all. Since stocks have rallied and bonds have fallen (higher yields and mortgage rates) since the election based on that agenda, we should see stocks backtrack and bonds rally.

There are a handful of relevant economic reports scheduled for release next week, but none are considered to be key releases. There are also a couple of Treasury auctions that may come into play and another round of Fed speaking engagements. Monday has nothing of importance scheduled. Look for details on next weeks calendar in Sunday evenings weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Rates are lower today. Check our rates at www.WMRLoans.com. Rates are posted at 9am daily.

Mondays bond market has opened well in positive territory as the markets react to the healthcare bill failure from Friday. The bill now appears to be dead in its present form, so we are seeing a reaction this morning. Stocks are also helping with the Dow down 118 points and the Nasdaq down 21 points. The bond market is currently up 15/32 (2.36%), which should improve this morning?s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point over Fridays morning pricing.

There is nothing of importance set for release today. The rest of the week brings us the release of four economic reports that have the potential to move mortgage rates, but none are considered to be highly important to the markets. There also are a couple of Treasury auctions set to take place that may influence mortgage rates the middle of the week.

Tomorrow has the first report worth watching with March?s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) from the New York-based Conference Board at 10:00 AM ET. This index gives us an indication of consumers willingness to spend. Bond traders watch this data closely because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of our economy. If this report shows that consumer confidence in their own financial situation is falling, it would indicate that consumers are less apt to make a large purchase in the near future. If it reveals that confidence looks to be growing, we may see bond traders sell as economic growth may rise, pushing mortgage rates higher Tuesday morning. It is expected to show a reading of 113.3 down from February's 114.8 reading. The lower the reading, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates.

The first of this weeks two relatively important Treasury auctions that may influence rates is also taking place tomorrow. There will be an auction of 5-year Notes tomorrow and 7-year Notes on Wednesday. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions to mortgage rates. However, strong sales usually make bonds more attractive to investors and bring more funds into the bond market. The buying of bonds that follows often translates into lower mortgage rates. Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET auction day, so look for any reaction to come during afternoon hours.

Overall, Friday is likely to be the most active day for mortgage rates but we could see noticeable movement tomorrow also as the markets start the week. The best candidate for calmest day is Thursday. I suspect we may see a big move in stocks soon, possibly this week. If that move is lower, bonds should benefit and mortgage rates would move lower. Despite the lack of key economic data or other highly important events, we still could see an active week for mortgage rates. Accordingly, it still would be prudent to remain in contact with your mortgage professional if closing in the near future and still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

(please note, these are not necessary the thoughts and opinions of Wenhe Mortgage and Realty but merely a general opinion from Mortgage Commentary that we use to gauge the direction of the market).

 

[Tamalewagon]

Check our rates at www.WMRLoans.com

Tuesdays bond market has opened up slightly despite much stronger than expected economic news. Stocks are mixed with the Dow up 16 points and the Nasdaq down 5 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (2.37%), which should keep this morning?s mortgage rates very close to yesterdays morning levels.

Marchs Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) was todays only relevant economic data, coming at 10:00 AM ET. The Conference Board announced a reading of 125.6 that greatly exceeded expectations of 113.3. It was an increase from Februarys revised 116.1 and was the highest reading since December 2000. That indicates consumers were much more confident in their own financial situations than many had expected. Since rising confidence usually translates into stronger levels of consumer spending, this is clearly bad news for bonds and mortgage pricing. Fortunately, the markets did not seem to be paying too much attention this morning, limiting the impact on todays rates.

We also have the first of this week?s two relatively important Treasury auctions taking place today. 5-year Treasury Notes will be sold today while 7-year Notes go tomorrow. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions to mortgage rates. However, strong investor demand usually makes bonds more attractive to investors and brings more funds into the bond market. The buying of bonds that follows often translates into lower mortgage rates. Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET auction day, so look for any reaction to come during afternoon hours.

Tomorrow has no relevant economic data being released. There is the 7-year Note auction and a couple of Fed speaking engagements that may affect bond trading and mortgage rates, but none are likely to cause significant volatility or noticeable movement in rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

(please note, these are not necessary the thoughts and opinions of Wenhe Mortgage and Realty but a general opinion from Mortgage Commentary that we use to gauge the direction of the market).

 

[Tamalewagon]

Wednesdays bond market has opened in positive territory, erasing a good part of yesterdays late selling. The major stock indexes are mixed with the Dow down 51 points and the Nasdaq up 10 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32 (2.39%), but due to heavy selling yesterday afternoon, we still should see an increase in this mornings mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point if comparing to Tuesdays morning pricing. There were widespread upward revisions from lenders during afternoon trading, so how much of an increase you see this morning depends how much of a move your lender made yesterday.

Yesterdays 5-year Treasury Note auction did not go wonderfully but was not too bad either. The benchmarks we use to gauge investor demand showed an average level of interest in the securities. The bond market selling came in two batches but they did not coincide with the results of the auction being posted. Therefore, we cannot blame it on the sale. However, the results do not give us too much to be optimistic about in todays 7-year Note auction. Its results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading. A strong demand in the securities would be good news for the broader bond market and mortgage rates.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today. News from overseas that Britain has officially started the process to withdraw from the European Union appears to be the focus of the markets this morning. We do have a couple of Fed speaking engagements taking place today, so we will be looking for any surprises to come from them to have an impact on the bond and mortgage markets.

Tomorrow has two relatively minor pieces of economic data scheduled for release. The first is the final revision to the 4th Quarter GDP at 8:30 AM ET. The Gross Domestic Product is the total of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is the benchmark measurement of economic activity. It is expected to show that the economy grew at an annual pace of 2.0% last quarter, up slightly from the previous estimate of 1.9% that was released last month. Analysts are now more concerned with next months preliminary reading of the 1st quarter than data from three to six months ago. So, unless we see a significant revision, this report probably will have little impact on tomorrows mortgage rates.

The other piece of economic data will be last weeks unemployment figures, also at 8:30 AM ET. They are expected to show that 245,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, down from the previous weeks 258,000 initial claims. This report usually does not cause much movement in the markets or mortgage rates unless it shows a significant jump or drop in initial claims for benefits. The higher the number of claims, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates since rising claims is a sign of employment sector weakness.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

(please note, these comments are not necessarily the thoughts and opinions of Wenhe Mortgage and Realty but a general opinion from Mortgage Commentary that we use to gauge the direction of the market).

 

[Tamalewagon]

Thursdays bond market has opened in negative territory, erasing yesterdays improvements. Stocks are showing moderate gains again, pushing the Dow higher by 59 points and the Nasdaq higher by 10 points. The bond market is currently down 6/32 (2.40%), but strength late yesterday should keep this mornings mortgage rates very close to Wednesdays morning levels. If your lender revised lower intraday yesterday, you should see an increase in this mornings pricing by the same amount.

Yesterdays 7-year Treasury Note auction went very well with the indicators pointing towards a pretty strong level of investor interest. Bonds did not have a significant reaction to the news, but we did see many lenders make a downward revision to their pricing shortly after results were posted.

This mornings minor economic releases gave us mixed results. The second revision to the 4th Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed the economy grew at a 2.1% annual pace, a little higher than the previous estimate of 1.9% and slightly above the 2.0% that was forecasted. The higher reading is bad news for bonds because it means economic activity was stronger than thought at the end of last year. That said, it really isn?t having too much of an impact on todays mortgage rates due to the age of the data and the fact that the current quarter?s reading will be posted next month.

The second release of the morning gave us favorable results. Last weeks unemployment figures showed that 258,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed. That was a decline from the previous weeks 261,000. However, analysts were calling for 245,000 initial filings. The higher than expected number allows us to label this data as good news for bonds and mortgage rates. Unfortunately, this is only a weekly report, so it did not carry enough significance to offset the morning negative tone in bonds.

Tomorrow closes the week with two more economic reports that may influence mortgage pricing. Februarys Personal Income & Outlays report is the first, coming at 8:30 AM ET. This data helps us measure consumers ability to spend and current spending habits, which is important to the mortgage market because of the influence that consumer spending related information has on the financial markets. If a consumers' income is rising, they are more likely to make additional purchases in the near future. Therefore, weaker than expected readings would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates. Analysts are currently calling for a 0.4% rise in income and a 0.2% increase in spending.

The second report will come from the University of Michigan just before 10:00 AM ET. Their revised March Consumer Sentiment Index will give us another indication of consumer confidence, which hints at consumers willingness to spend. Rising confidence is considered bad news for the bond market and mortgage pricing because it usually means consumers are more willing to spend. Tomorrows report is expected to show a reading of 97.6, unchanged from the preliminary reading posted two weeks ago. Favorable results for bonds and mortgage rates would be a sizable decline in confidence.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Call us at 619-255-3182 for the daily rates.

http://mortgagecommentary.com/commentary.cfm?id=48220140321

 

[Tamalewagon]

http://mortgagecommentary.com/commentary.cfm?id=48220140321

 

[Tamalewagon]

http://mortgagecommentary.com/commentary.cfm?id=48220140321

 

[Tamalewagon]

To all of our current and past clients, please PM me if you would like one of these RTIC tumblers. :thumbsup NOT dishwasher safe. These are powder coated and not painted. Thank you again for your business.

 

[Tamalewagon]

Wednesdays bond market has opened down slightly following stronger than expected employment-related news. Stocks are showing early gains with the Dow up 179 points and the Nasdaq up 30 points. The bond market is currently down 1/32 (2.36%), which should push this mornings mortgage rates slightly higher than Tuesdays morning pricing.

Marchs ADP Employment report was posted at 8:15 AM ET this morning, revealing an increase of 263,000 private sector jobs. This was much stronger than the 175,000 that was expected, giving a sign that the private sector portion of the labor market is quickly gaining strength. However, we are seeing somewhat of a muted response in bonds because accompanying that headline number was a significant downward revision to Februarys payroll count of 53,000 jobs. If we see a similar downward revision next month, Marchs job count will be much closer to expectations. It is worth noting that this is not a governmental report, so it does have its share of skeptics. The extremely important and potentially market moving Labor Department report will come Friday morning.

We also have the minutes from the last FOMC meeting to watch this afternoon. Market participants will be looking at them closely as they give us insight to the Feds current thought process and individual Fed member opinions. Any surprises in the 2:00 PM ET release, particularly about inflation, economic conditions, Fed balance sheet intentions or when the next rate hike will take place, could cause afternoon volatility in the markets and possible changes in mortgage pricing this afternoon.

Tomorrow only has a minor weekly unemployment release that may influence mortgage rates slightly. Last weeks unemployment figures will be posted at 8:30 AM ET. They are expected to show that 245,000 new claims for benefits were filed, down from 258,000 of the previous week. Ideally, we want to see a large increase in initial claims, indicating employment sector weakness. The higher the number of claims, the better the news it is for mortgage rates. It is worth noting though that this is only a weekly snapshot, so I am not expecting it to have much of an impact on tomorrows mortgage pricing. Market focus will be on Friday monthly Employment report.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

(please note, these comments are not necessarily the thoughts and opinions of Wenhe Mortgage and Realty but a general opinion from Mortgage Commentary that we use to gauge the direction of the market).

 

[Tamalewagon]

Thursdays bond market has opened in negative territory as traders prepare for tomorrows major economic data. The major stock indexes are showing moderate gains with the Dow up 52 points and the Nasdaq up 10 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32 (2.35%), but due to strength late yesterday afternoon, we still should see a slight improvement in this morning?s mortgage rates. That is unless your lender improved pricing intraday yesterday. If so, then you may see a slight increase from that revised pricing.

The bond market improved after the FOMC minutes were posted yesterday afternoon. They did not reveal a significant surprise, but did seem to hint at a slower unraveling of the mortgage bonds they hold on their balance sheet. The concern is that once the Fed starts selling holdings they previously purchased to help boost economic growth, there will be a lack of buyers to prevent yields from rising. Since mortgage rates tend to track bond yields, this would be bad news. The minutes seem to ease concerns that they would be selling the mortgage bonds at a rapid pace. That sigh of relief allowed bond prices to move higher late yesterday, pushing yields and mortgage pricing lower.

Todays only relevant economic data was last weeks unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET. They showed that 234,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were made last week. This was lower than the 245,000 that was expected and a sizable drop from the previous week?s revised total of 259,000 initial claims. The smaller number is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because declining initial filings indicates the employment sector may be strengthening. Fortunately, the impact on todays trading has been fairly minimal since this is only a weekly snapshot.

The biggest news of the week will come early tomorrow morning when the Labor Department posts Marchs Employment report, revealing the U.S. unemployment rate and the number of jobs added or lost during the month. This is an extremely important report to the financial and mortgage markets. It is expected to show that the unemployment rate remained at 4.7% and that approximately 178,000 payrolls were added to the economy during the month while earnings rose 0.3%. A higher unemployment rate and a much smaller than expected payroll number would be good news for bonds and could likely push mortgage rates lower because it would indicate weaker than thought conditions in the employment sector of the economy.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

(please note, these comments are not necessarily the thoughts and opinions of Wenhe Mortgage and Realty but a general opinion from Mortgage Commentary that we use to gauge the direction of the market).

 

[Tamalewagon]

Mondays bond market has opened in positive territory, recovering part of Fridays losses. The major stock indexes are starting the week in positive ground also with the Dow up 58 points and the Nasdaq up 23 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32 (2.36%), but due to weakness late Friday we should see an increase of approximately .250 of a discount point from Fridays morning pricing.

There is nothing of importance set for today. The rest of the week brings us the release of only four pieces of economic data that are likely to influence mortgage rates in addition to a couple of Treasury auctions. Most of the data that is scheduled this week is considered to be highly important though. It is a holiday-shortened week with only three and a half trading days for the bond market.

Tomorrow has the first of this weeks two Treasury auctions that have a decent chance of affecting mortgage rates. There is a 10-year Treasury Note sale tomorrow and a 30-year Bond sale Wednesday. We could see some weakness in bonds this afternoon as participating firms sell current holdings to prepare for the auctions. This weakness is usually only temporary if the sales are met with a decent demand. The results of the auctions will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. If the demand from investors was strong, the bond market could rally during afternoon trading, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the sales were met with a poor demand, the afternoon weakness may cause upward revisions to mortgage rates.

The bond market is expected to close early Thursday ahead of the Good Friday holiday. The stock and bond markets will be closed all day Friday and will reopen for regular trading Monday. It is common to see some pressure in bonds as investors make moves to protect themselves over the long holiday, so don't be surprised if bonds weaken slightly early Thursday afternoon before closing. This is particularly true since there is significant data being released Friday when the markets are closed.

Overall, Thursday will be the most important day of the week even though there is more important data being posted Friday morning. Due to the holiday, the markets won?t be able to react to that data until next Monday. This leaves Thursday as the best candidate for most active day in mortgage rates. I suspect we will see the earlier part of the week be fairly calm but get more active as it progresses.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

I am going to have a little client appreciation table at the bar behind the RDP booth for a few hours Thursday. The time and exact place will be noted on our Facebook page Wenhe Mortgage and Realty. Please join me for cocktails.

I just received a new order of the RTIC tumblers. Our current and past clients get first dibs on these. Please PM me with your address if you want one. :thumbup:

 

[Tamalewagon]

Rates are lower today. :thumbsup





Tuesdays bond market has opened in positive territory with stocks showing early losses and little scheduled to prevent the upward move. The Dow is currently down 53 points while the Nasdaq has lost 40 points. The bond market is currently up 13/32 (2.32%), which should improve this morning?s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic data set for release today. However, we do have the 10-year Treasury Note auction to watch that may affect mortgage rates. The results of the auction will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading. If the demand from investors was strong, the bond market could rally during afternoon trading, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the sale was met with a poor demand, the expected afternoon weakness may cause upward revisions to mortgage rates.

Tomorrow also does not have any important economic data being posted. That will leave stocks and the 30-year Bond auction to drive bond trading and mortgage pricing. The auction results will also be posted at 1:00 PM ET tomorrow, so it is an afternoon event to watch.

This week may seem light so far in terms of events that are influencing mortgage rates, but it does bet much busier. We have several important economic reports coming Thursday and Friday. There also will be an early close Thursday ahead of the Good Friday holiday. This means we should have a pretty active day Thursday as traders react to the data and prepare for the long weekend.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[wet hull]

We locked in today. Glad to read it was a good idea.

Rates are lower today. :thumbsup





Tuesdays bond market has opened in positive territory with stocks showing early losses and little scheduled to prevent the upward move. The Dow is currently down 53 points while the Nasdaq has lost 40 points. The bond market is currently up 13/32 (2.32%), which should improve this morning?s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic data set for release today. However, we do have the 10-year Treasury Note auction to watch that may affect mortgage rates. The results of the auction will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading. If the demand from investors was strong, the bond market could rally during afternoon trading, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the sale was met with a poor demand, the expected afternoon weakness may cause upward revisions to mortgage rates.

Tomorrow also does not have any important economic data being posted. That will leave stocks and the 30-year Bond auction to drive bond trading and mortgage pricing. The auction results will also be posted at 1:00 PM ET tomorrow, so it is an afternoon event to watch.

This week may seem light so far in terms of events that are influencing mortgage rates, but it does bet much busier. We have several important economic reports coming Thursday and Friday. There also will be an early close Thursday ahead of the Good Friday holiday. This means we should have a pretty active day Thursday as traders react to the data and prepare for the long weekend.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Wednesday?s bond market has opened flat with little to drive trading this morning. Stocks are showing minor losses, pushing the Dow down 35 points and the Nasdaq lower 7 points. The bond market is currently down 1/32 (2.29%), but we should still see an improvement in this morning?s mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point due to strength late yesterday.

There is no relevant economic data being posted today. We do have the 30-year bond auction taking place that may influence mortgage rates this afternoon. Yesterday?s 10-year Note sale wasn?t overly strong or weak. The benchmarks we use to gauge investor demand showed an average level of interest in the securities. If today?s sale does better than yesterday?s auction did, we could see bond prices rise and mortgage rates revise slightly lower during early afternoon trading. However, a weak demand from investors may lead to an upward move in mortgage pricing later today.

Tomorrow has three pieces of mortgage-relevant economic data scheduled, one of which is an important inflation index. That would be March's Producer Price Index (PPI) at 8:30 AM ET. It will give us an important measurement of inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the report that analysts watch- the overall reading and the core data. The core data is more important to market participants because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. If it shows rapidly rising prices, inflation fears may hurt bond prices since it erodes the value of a bond's future fixed interest payments and causes the Fed to raise key short-term rates sooner. A good size decline in prices would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for no change in the overall reading and a 0.2% rise in the core data.

The second release will be last week?s unemployment figures, also at 8:30 AM ET. They are expected to show that 251,000 new claims for benefits were filed, up from 234,000 of the previous week. Ideally, we want to see a larger increase in initial claims, indicating employment sector weakness. The higher the number of claims, the better the news it is for mortgage rates. It is worth noting though that this is only a weekly snapshot, so I am not expecting it to have much of an impact on tomorrow?s mortgage pricing.

Next up is the release of the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment just before 10:00 AM. This index will give us an indication of consumer confidence, which hints at consumers' willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, consumers are more apt to make large purchases. But, if they are growing more concerned of their personal financial or employment situations, they probably will delay making that purchase. This influences future consumer spending data and can have a moderate impact on the financial markets. Good news would be a sizable decline from March's 96.9 reading. Current forecasts are calling for a reading of approximately 96.3.

The bond market will close early tomorrow, ahead of the Good Friday holiday. The stock and bond markets will be closed all day Friday and will reopen for regular trading Monday. It is common to see some pressure in bonds as investors make moves to protect themselves over the long holiday, so don't be surprised if bonds weaken slightly early tomorrow afternoon before closing. This is particularly true since there is significant data being released Friday when the markets are closed.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Thursdays bond market has opened in negative territory following mixed economic news. Stocks are flat during early trading with the Dow down 1 points and the Nasdaq up 10 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32 (2.26%), but we should still see an improvement in this mornings mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point due to strength late Wednesday.

Yesterdays 30-year Bond auction went similarly to Tuesdays 10-year sale. Investor demand was not particularly strong or weak. The benchmarks pointed towards and average interest in the securities. The bond market actually weakened shortly after the results were posted, but did recover to close higher before closing.

Marchs Producer Price Index (PPI) was the first economic report of the week. The 8:30 AM ET release showed a 0.1% decline in the overall reading and no change in the more important core data that excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both readings were weaker than forecasts of no change and up 0.2% respectively. This means that inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy remained flat. Because bonds are more appealing to investors when inflation is low and the readings fell short of expectations, we can consider this news favorable for bonds and mortgage rates.

Also at 8:30 AM ET was the release of last weeks unemployment figures. It revealed that 234,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, nearly unchanged from the previous weeks revised 235,000 initial filings. Little change is not bad news, but since analysts were expecting to see a good-sized increase, we should consider the report negative for bonds and mortgage rates. Fortunately, this is only a weekly snapshot of the employment sector, so its impact on trading has been minimal.

The University of Michigans Index of Consumer Sentiment was released late this morning. They announced a reading of 98.0 that exceeded forecasts of 96.3. That manes surveyed consumers were more optimistic about their own financial and employment situations than many last month. Since rising confidence usually translates into higher levels of consumer spending, this is negative news for bonds and mortgage pricing.

The bond market will close at 2:00 PM ET today, ahead of the Good Friday holiday tomorrow. The stock markets will be open for a full day of trading today. The stock and bond markets will be closed all day tomorrow and will reopen for regular trading Monday. It is common to see some pressure in bonds as investors make moves to protect themselves over the long holiday, so don't be surprised if bonds weaken further before closing. This is particularly true since there is significant data being released tomorrow even though the markets are closed.

There are two reports being posted tomorrow, both of which are considered to be highly important. The Commerce Department will release March's Retail Sales data at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow morning. This piece of data gives us a measurement of consumer spending, which is very important because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Forecasts are calling for a 0.1% decline in sales from February to March. If we see an increase in spending, the bond market will likely fall and mortgage rates will rise as it would indicate consumers are spending more than thought, fueling economic growth. On the other hand, a larger than expected drop in sales could push bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower. However, any reaction won?t come until Monday when the markets reopen.

The final report of the week is Marchs Consumer Price Index (CPI), also coming at 8:30 AM ET. This index is one of the more important pieces of data the bond market gets each month. It is similar to Today's PPI but measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy. If inflation is rapidly rising, bonds become less appealing to investors, leading to bond selling and higher mortgage rates. As with the PPI, there are two readings in the index that traders watch- the overall and the core data. Analysts are expecting to no change in the overall readings and a 0.2% increase in the core reading. The core data is the more important reading, which ideally would show a decline in prices at the consumer level, keeping inflation concerns subdued.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Havasu Rehab]

You're the man Scott! Thanks for the summer supplies. Rest assured they will be put to good use!

 

[Tamalewagon]

The bond market is closed today in observance of the Good Friday holiday, as are the stock markets. All will reopen Monday morning for regular trading hours. If your lender is open for business today, they likely will be using Thursdays early afternoon pricing or not accepting rate locks until Monday morning. It is worth noting though that strength before the early close Thursday pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield below 2.25%. This was an important point of resistance that if holds, will alter the longer-term outlook for bonds and mortgage rates.

Despite the holiday, there were two important economic reports posted this morning. The Commerce Department posted March's Retail Sales data at 8:30 AM ET, announcing a 0.2% decline in retail-level sales. That was weaker than the 0.1% that was forecasted. In addition, a secondary reading that tracks sales excluding more volatile and costly auto transactions showed no change when analysts were predicting a 0.2% rise. Both readings are good news for bonds and mortgage pricing as consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Therefore, weaker spending data points towards softer economic growth that makes bonds more attractive to investors.

Also posted early this morning was Marchs Consumer Price Index (CPI). It showed 0.3% decline in the overall reading and a 0.1% decline in the more important core data. Both of these readings were well below expectations of no change and up 0.2% respectively. This means inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy were much softer than many had thought. That is very good news for bonds and mortgage rates because bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions with low inflation. It also could affect the Feds timetable for raising key short-term interest rates.

This mornings data is clearly favorable news for the bond market and both reports are important enough to have a noticeable impact on bonds and mortgage rates. Unfortunately, we likely will not see a reaction until Monday morning because of the holiday. I believe that this type of news should have caused a decent sized improvement in rates, but we will have to wait for Monday to see just how much. The good news is that unless something unexpected happens over the weekend, we should have a rate improvement coming to start the new week.

Next week is not too busy in terms of the number of economic reports scheduled to be posted. There appears to be a couple of housing releases coming along with the Fed beige Book and an industrial manufacturing report. None of them are set for Monday though. Look for details on next weeks calendar in Sunday evenings weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Monday?s bond market has opened up slightly following favorable results in Friday?s two important economic reports. Stocks are starting the week off with noticeable gains of 85 points in the Dow and 25 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (2.22%), which should improve this morning?s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point if comparing to Thursday?s morning pricing. Due to the Good Friday holiday, the bond market closed early Thursday and all markets were closed Friday.

There is nothing of importance set for release today. This is the only day of the week that does not have something being posted. The rest of the week has five pieces of monthly economic data that have the potential to influence mortgage rates. None of the data is considered to be key or highly important though. We are in earnings season where corporations post their quarterly earnings and projections. Strong earnings reports should fuel a stock rally that pressures bonds and leads to higher mortgage rates. On the other hand, disappointing earnings news should make bonds more attractive to investors and lead to rate improvements.

March's Housing Starts will start the week's releases at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow morning. This report tracks groundbreakings of new home construction, giving us a measurement of housing sector strength and future demand for mortgage credit. It is not considered to be highly important to the markets but does draw enough attention to influence trading if it reveals surprisingly strong or weak numbers. The report will be posted at 8:30 AM ET and is expected to show a small decline in starts from February to March. Good news for mortgage rates would be a sizable decline in starts that points toward housing sector weakness.

Also being released tomorrow is March's Industrial Production data at 9:15 AM ET. It tracks output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities, translating into an indication of manufacturing sector strength. Current forecasts are calling for 0.4% increase in production from February's level. This data is considered to be only moderately important to rates, so it will take more than just a slight variance to influence bond trading and mortgage pricing. Signs of manufacturing sector strength are considered negative news for mortgage rates, while a decline in output would be favorable news for the bond market and mortgage shoppers.

Overall, there is nothing scheduled this week that is expected to create much volatility or be a market mover. I don't see any particular day as a good candidate for most important of the week. Still, despite the lack of key economic data, it would still be prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if floating an interest rate as market conditions can change at any time.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Back in the saddle...

Here we go Monday...

Monday?s bond market has opened well in negative territory as the markets react heavily to the France election results. The major stock indexes are sharply higher with the Dow up 221 points and the Nasdaq up 70 points. The bond market is currently down 13/32 (2.29%), which should push this morning?s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point from Friday?s morning pricing. More importantly though, the benchmark 10-year yield has moved back above 2.25%. That is a very important resistance level that if stays above, could be signaling higher mortgage rates in the immediate future.

There is nothing of relevance set for release today. The rest of the week brings us the release of six monthly and quarterly economic reports that may affect mortgage rates in addition to a couple of Treasury auctions. One those reports is considered to be extremely important to the financial and mortgage markets and can cause a great deal of volatility.

The week kicks off at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning when March's New Home Sales numbers are posted. This Commerce Department report tracks a much smaller portion of all home sales than last week's Existing Home Sales report did. It also gives us an indication of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand, however, unless it varies greatly from analysts' forecasts I am not expecting the data to cause much movement in mortgage rates. Analysts are currently forecasting a slight decline in sales of newly constructed homes. Good news for mortgage rates would be a sizable drop in sales.

April's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will also be posted at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This index is considered to be an indicator of future spending by consumers. The Conference Board surveys 5,000 consumers from across the country about their personal financial situations. If sentiment is strong or rising, it is believed that consumers are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. However, if they are concerned about issues such as job security and savings, they will probably delay making large purchases. The latter is better for the bond market and mortgage rates because the expected slowdown in spending would keep inflation and economic growth to a minimum. On the other hand, a sizable increase could hurt the bond market, pushing mortgage rates higher. It is expected to show a reading of 122.3, which would be a decline from March's 125.6 reading. The lower the reading, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

Overall, Friday is the most important day of the week due to the release of three reports being posted, including the highly important GDP reading. Thursday may also be one of the more active days this week. Wednesday is the best candidate for least important day. With such a busy calendar, it is highly recommended that you maintain contact with your mortgage professional if closing in the near future and still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Tuesdays bond market has opened in negative territory again following another strong open in stocks that are reacting to strong earnings news. This has pushed the Dow up 227 points while the Nasdaq has gained 34 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32 (2.29), which should push this morning?s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point is comparing to Mondays early pricing.

Marchs New Home Sales report was the first of this mornings two releases. The Commerce Department announced at 10:00 AM ET that sales of newly constructed homes rose 5.8% last month. This was stronger than expected, indicating the new home portion of the housing sector was stronger than many had thought. Because that is a sign of economic strength, we should consider the data negative for bonds and mortgage rates.

The second release of the day was Aprils Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), also at 10:00 AM ET. This Conference Board release showed a reading of 120.3 that fell short of the 122.3 that was forecasted. It was also a decline from March?s revised 124.9, meaning surveyed consumers were less optimistic about their own financial and employment situations than they were last month. Since waning confidence usually translates into softer levels of consumer spending, this data is good news for mortgage rates.

Tomorrow has no relevant economic data set for release, so we can expect stock movement to again heavily influence bond trading and mortgage pricing. What we do have tomorrow is the first of two relatively important Treasury auctions that may affect mortgage rates. There will be an auction of 5-year Treasury Notes tomorrow and 7-year Notes on Thursday. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions in mortgage rates. On the other hand, strong sales usually make government securities more attractive to investors and bring more funds into bonds. The buying of bonds that follows usually translates into lower mortgage rates. Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each auction day, so look for any reaction to come during afternoon hours.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Wednesdays bond market has opened up slightly as stocks appear to be taking a breather after a couple days of strong gains. The major stock indexes are in positive ground, but showing modest improvements. The Dow is currently up 26 points while the Nasdaq is up 2 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (2.32), but we still will likely see an increase in this mornings mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point due to weakness late yesterday.

There is nothing scheduled for release today in terms of economic data that is expected to affect mortgage rates. We do have the first of this weeks two relatively important Treasury auctions taking place that may affect mortgage rates though. There will be an auction of 5-year Treasury Notes today and 7-year Notes on tomorrow. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions in mortgage rates. On the other hand, strong sales usually make government securities more attractive to investors and bring more funds into bonds. The buying of bonds that follows usually translates into lower mortgage rates. Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each auction day, so look for any reaction to come during afternoon hours.

Tomorrow has two pieces of economic data set for release at 8:30 AM ET. One of those reports is much more important to the markets than the other. That would be March's Durable Goods Orders. This report gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items at U.S. factories. These are products that are expected to last three or more years, such as appliances, electronics and airplanes. Current forecasts are calling for an increase in new orders of 1.2%. This would be a sign of manufacturing sector strength, but this data can be quite volatile from month-to-month. Therefore, a small variance between forecasts and the actual results will not heavily influence the markets or mortgage rates. A large decline would be considered good news for mortgage pricing, while a large rise would indicate strength in the sector. A sign of solid manufacturing growth could lead to higher mortgage rates tomorrow.

Also early tomorrow morning will be last week?s unemployment update. This report is expected to show that 242,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, down slightly from the previous weeks 244,000. Rising initial claims are a sign of employment sector weakness, so the larger the number of claims, the better the news it is for mortgage rates. Although, because this is only a weekly reading we usually need to see a significant variance from forecasts for it to impact mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Thursdays bond market has opened fairly flat even though this mornings economic data gave us favorable results. Stocks are up a little with the Dow up 14 points and the Nasdaq gaining 19 points. The bond market is currently down 1/32 (2.30%), but because of strength late yesterday we should see an improvement in this mornings mortgage rates of .125 - .250 of a discount point if comparing to Wednesdays early pricing.

Yesterdays 5-year Treasury Note auction did not go overly well. The benchmarks we use to gauge investor demand showed an average level of interest at best. The bond market did not have a noticeable reaction to the auction results when they were posted. That doesn?t allow us to be too optimistic about today?s 7-year Note auction. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so look for any reaction to come during early afternoon hours. A strong demand for the securities is good news for the broader bond market and mortgage rates.

The first of this mornings two economic reports was Marchs Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET. The Commerce Department announced a 0.7% increase in new orders for big-ticket products such as appliances, electronics and airplanes. Analysts were expecting to see a 1.2% increase. While that may seem like a wide variance, it is not for this data. This report is known to show volatility, so the difference between expectations and actual results was not significant. A secondary reading that tracks orders but excludes transportation-related items such as new airplanes came in much weaker than expected. Therefore, we can consider the report good news for mortgage rates.

Also posted at 8:30 AM ET was last weeks unemployment figures. They revealed that 257,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, up from the previous weeks revised 243,000 initial filings. That was well above the 242,000 that was forecasted. Since rising claims points towards a softening employment sector, this news was also good for the bond and mortgage markets.

Tomorrow has three pieces of economic data for the markets to digest, one of which is a major release. The big news will come at 8:30 AM ET, when the preliminary version of the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be released. There is a strong argument to be made that this is the single most important report that we see on a regular basis. The GDP is the sum of all products and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best measure of economic growth or contraction. I expect this report to cause sizable movement in the financial markets Friday and therefore the mortgage market also. Analysts are expecting it to show that the economy grew at an annual rate of 1.1% during the first three months of this year. That would be a much slower pace than the 2.1% pace of the final quarter of last year. A weaker rate of growth would be considered good news for mortgage rates. But a stronger than expected reading would almost certainly cause stock prices to rise and bond prices to fall, leading to higher mortgage rates.

Also early tomorrow is the 1st Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI). This index tracks employer costs for wages and benefits, giving us a measurement of wage-inflation. If it shows a large increase, we may see wage inflation concerns rise as employers will need to pass those increases into the pricing of their products and services. That would be bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. A smaller than expected increase would be good news, although I doubt this report will affect mortgage rates because the GDP is a key piece of data and will draw the most attention. Current forecasts are showing a rise of 0.6%.

The week closes with the University of Michigans revised Index of Consumer Sentiment for April just before 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This report gives us an indication of consumer sentiment and their willingness to spend. Current forecasts are calling for no change from the preliminary reading of 98.0. This means that surveyed consumers were no more or less optimistic about their own financial situations as they were earlier this month. This data is relevant for the same reason as Tuesday?s CCI. I don't expect this report to have a significant impact on bonds and mortgage pricing either unless it shows a noticeable revision.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Fridays bond market has opened relatively flat again following mixed results in todays batch of economic data. The major stock indexes are mixed also with the Dow down 22 points and the Nasdaq up 2 points. The bond market is currently down 1/32 (2.30%), but because of strength again late yesterday we should see an improvement in this mornings mortgage rates of approximately .125 point if comparing to Thursdays early pricing.

Yesterdays 7-year Treasury Note auction went very well with several benchmarks showing a pretty strong interest in the securities. Bonds had already improved from early morning levels when results were posted, but that news coincided with another move higher and caused some lenders to slightly improve mortgage pricing before the end of the day.

The most important of todays three economic releases was the preliminary version of the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 8:30 AM ET. It revealed the economy grew at a 0.7% annual rate compared to the 1.2% that was predicted. That headline number is good news for bonds and mortgage rates since it means the economy was not as strong as many had thought. Unfortunately, some secondary readings raised inflation concerns, causing the muted reaction to the report.

Todays other early release was the 1st Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI). It showed a 0.8% increase, exceeding forecasts of 0.6%. This means that employer costs for wages and benefits rose more than analysts had expected. Because rising wages is a sign of inflation, this is a negative report for bonds and mortgage rates.

Aprils revised University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment came late this morning. It stood at 97.0, down from the preliminary reading of 98.0 from earlier this month. It was expected to remain unchanged, not revise lower. The decline indicates that surveyed consumers were a little less optimistic about their own financial situations than thought a couple weeks ago. Since waning confidence usually translates into softer levels of consumer spending that fuels economic growth, this data is good news for the bond and mortgage market.

Next week is likely to be very active for the markets and mortgage rates. To summarize, we start with the very important ISM manufacturing index Monday, have an FOMC meeting mid-week and close with the almighty Employment report next Friday. Look for details on all of next weeks activities in Sunday evenings weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Mondays bond market has opened flat despite favorable economic data. Stocks are starting the week mixed with the Dow down 16 points and the Nasdaq up 20 points. The bond market is currently up 1/32 (2.28%), which should allow this mornings mortgage pricing to come in slightly lower than Fridays early rates.

The week started with two relevant economic reports this morning. The first was Marchs Personal Income and Outlays data at 8:30 AM ET. The Commerce Department said that personal income rose 0.2% and that spending was unchanged. Both readings were 0.1% weaker than forecasts, meaning consumers earned less than expected and spent less than thought. That makes the data good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Aprils Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index was the other, coming at 10:00 AM ET. They announced a reading of 54.8 that fell well short of the 56.5 that was expected. This indicates fewer surveyed manufacturers felt business improved during the month than analysts were expecting this month and that business worsened since last month. As another sign of softer economic activity, this is also favorable news for the bond and mortgage markets. Unfortunately, the bond market appears to have run out of momentum as we are seeing little reaction to this highly important report.

Tomorrow has nothing in terms of events that we need to be concerned with, but the rest of the week has four more reports, one of which is extremely important, along with another FOMC meeting. The number of reports and the importance of some of the data leads me to believe it is going to be a very active week for the financial and mortgage markets.

Overall, the single most important day of the week is Friday (Employment report) or Wednesday (FOMC meeting). Tomorrow is the best candidate for lightest day, although we could see some pre-FOMC movement. Due to the significance of some of this weeks data, I highly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional this week if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Tuesdays bond market has opened up slightly with little in the news and no economic data this morning. The major stock indexes are following suit with the Dow up 12 points and the Nasdaq down 5 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (2.31%), but due to some weakness late yesterday, we still should see a slight increase in this mornings mortgage pricing.

There is nothing of importance being released today. Tomorrow has two events that may influence mortgage rates. First is the ADP Employment report, set for release at 8:15 AM ET. This report gives us a measure of employment sector strength and has the potential to cause some movement in the markets if it shows much stronger or weaker numbers. It tracks changes in private-sector jobs of ADP's clients that use them for payroll processing. While it does draw attention, it is my opinion that it is overrated and is not a true reflection of the broader employment picture. It also is not accurate in predicting results of the monthly government report that usually follows a couple days later. Still, because we do often see a reaction to the report, we should be watching it. Analysts are expecting it to show that 170,000 new payrolls were added. The lower the number of jobs, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

This weeks FOMC meeting that began today will adjourn tomorrow afternoon. It will likely yield no change to key short-term interest rates, but we may see some volatility in the markets following the post-meeting statement. If the statement gives any hint of change in their current forecasts on the number of rate hikes they expect to make this year, we could see a sizable change to mortgage rates tomorrow afternoon. This meeting will not be followed by a Fed press conference or economic projections, so it will be the post-meeting statement that drives trading. The meeting will adjourn at 2:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during mid-afternoon trading tomorrow.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

I will be at Bad Dogs saloon Thursday. For any of our past/current clients, please stop by to join me in a "few" cocktails. I am bringing the RTIC tumblers with me for those of you who would like one. PM me if you are going to attend the Friday night Meet and Greet or the Saturday night party at Shagrue's.

 

[Tamalewagon]

Wednesdays bond market has opened in negative territory, erasing gains from late yesterday. Stocks are also showing losses with the Dow down 24 points and the Nasdaq down 26 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32 (2.30%), but due to gains late yesterday, we should see little change in this mornings mortgage rates if comparing to Tuesdays morning pricing.

Aprils ADP Employment report was released at 8:15 AM ET this morning. It showed that 177,000 private sector jobs were added last month. This was a little stronger than the 170,000 that was expected, but a downward revision of 8,000 to March?s number helps offset Aprils increase. That makes the data neutral for bonds and mortgage rates.

Later today, we have the FOMC meeting adjournment to deal with. Janet Yellen and friends are likely to leave key short-term interest rates unchanged at this meeting. Market participants will be looking at the post-meeting statement for any verbiage that addresses the number of rate hikes the Fed expects to make during the remainder of this year. If the statement gives any hint of change in their current forecasts, we could see a sizable change to mortgage rates this afternoon. The 2:00 PM ET adjournment will not be followed by a Fed press conference or economic projections, so it will be the post-meeting statement that drives trading later today.

Tomorrow has three pieces of economic data for the markets to digest. None of them are considered highly important or key releases, but the batch can cause a noticeable move in mortgage rates if they show similar results. We will update this report shortly after the markets have an opportunity to react to the FOMC adjournment. Tomorrow?s economic releases will be addressed in that revision.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Mondays bond market has opened in negative territory as have the major stock indexes. The Dow is starting the week with a 16-point loss while the Nasdaq is down 9 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32 (2.37%), but some strength before closing Friday should help keep this mornings mortgage rates unchanged.

There is nothing of importance scheduled for release today or tomorrow. The rest of the week brings us four economic reports that have the potential to influence mortgage rates. Three of the reports are considered to be of elevated importance to the bond market and therefore mortgage rates. This raises the possibility of seeing noticeable movement in rates multiple days this week.

Before we get to the week's economic reports, we have to deal with a couple of Treasury auctions. The Treasury will hold a 10-year Note sale Wednesday and a 30-year Bond sale Thursday. Results of the auctions will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. If they are met with a strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise enough during afternoon trading to cause downward revisions to mortgage rates. However, lackluster bidding in the sales, meaning longer-term securities are losing their appeal, could lead to higher mortgage pricing those afternoons.

Overall, the calmest day for mortgage rates will likely be tomorrow while the best candidate for most active day is Friday with three reports set to be posted. We also need to watch stocks for mortgage rate movement. Generally speaking, stock weakness usually makes bonds more attractive while stock gains tend to draw funds from bonds, leading to higher mortgage rates. It will likely be another active week for mortgage rates, particularly as the week progresses. Therefore, please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Tuesdays bond market has opened in negative territory again as the downward momentum continues. Stocks are showing minor gains, pushing the Dow higher by 30 points and the Nasdaq up 28 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32 (2.40%), which should increase this morning?s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Today also has nothing of importance scheduled. Unfortunately, that leaves little to be optimistic about in terms of bond and mortgage rate direction the next couple days. With the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield on the rise again, we start worrying about important resistance points. If it moves above 2.42%, the next stop may be well above 2.50%. Since mortgage rates tend to track bond yields, this would be troublesome for mortgage shoppers.

Tomorrow has no relevant economic data set for release, but it does bring us the first of this weeks two important Treasury auctions. 10-year Notes will be sold tomorrow while 30-year Bonds go Thursday. Results of the auctions will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. If they are met with a strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise enough during afternoon trading to cause downward revisions to mortgage rates. However, lackluster bidding in the sales, meaning longer-term securities are losing their appeal, could lead to higher mortgage pricing.

We do have some important economic data coming later this week. We will get two important inflation readings and a key report on consumer spending along with a consumer confidence report. This means that it is likely the most movement in mortgage rates this week is still ahead of us.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Dip in the rates today:

Wednesdays bond market has opened in positive territory with stocks showing moderate losses. The Dow is currently down 55 points while the Nasdaq has lost 5 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32 (2.37%), which should improve this morning?s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Todays only mortgage-relevant event is the first of this weeks two important Treasury auctions. 10-year Notes are being sold today while 30-year Bonds will be auctioned tomorrow. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each day, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading. If they are met with a strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise enough during afternoon trading to cause downward revisions to mortgage rates. However, lackluster bidding in the sales, meaning longer-term securities are losing their appeal, could lead to higher mortgage pricing this afternoon.

There will be two economic releases tomorrow, one of which is much more important than the other. The important report is April's Producer Price Index (PPI) at 8:30 AM ET. It helps us track inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. If this report reveals weaker than expected readings, indicating inflation is not a concern at the manufacturing level, we should see the bond market improve. The overall index is expected to rise 0.2%, while the core data that excludes more volatile food and energy prices has been forecasted to rise 0.2%. A decline in the core data will be ideal for mortgage shoppers because inflation is the number one nemesis for long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds. As inflation rises, longer-term securities become less appealing to investors since inflation erodes the value of those securities future fixed interest payments. That is one of the reasons why the bond market tends to thrive in weaker economic conditions with low levels of inflation.

Also coming early tomorrow morning is last weeks unemployment figures. They are expected to show that 242,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, up from the previous weeks 238,000. The larger the number of claims, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates because rising claims is a sign of a softening employment sector. However, this is only a weekly snapshot of the sector, so its influence on mortgage rates is often weak unless it shows a significant variance from forecasts. This is especially true when it is being released along with data that is considered to be important.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Have a VA option? We have the best programs and pricing available for VA purchase and refinancing. Yessir.

 

[Tamalewagon]

Thursdays bond market has opened up slightly despite unfavorable economic news. The major stock indexes are in selling mode during early trading with the Dow down 123 points and the Nasdaq down 45 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (2.40%), but due to weakness late yesterday we should see an increase of approximately .125 of a discount point in this mornings mortgage rates.

Yesterdays 10-year Note auction did not go well. The benchmarks we use to gauge investor interest in the securities showed a lackluster demand. After results were posted, the bond market reacted negatively and some lenders revised pricing higher. That leaves us little to be optimistic about in today?s 30-year Bond auction. Results will be released at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading. Similar results to yesterday?s sale could lead to more pressure in bonds and afternoon upward revisions to mortgage rates later today.

Aprils Producer Price Index (PPI) was released at 8:30 AM ET this morning. It came in much stronger than expected with the overall reading rising 0.5% and the more important core data up 0.4%. These increases were at least twice as high as the 0.2% that was expected in both. That means inflationary pressures at the manufacturing level of the economy was much stronger than many had thought, making the data bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Last weeks unemployment figures were also posted early this morning, revealing 236,000 new claims for unemployment benefits. This was a small decline from the previous week?s 238,000 initial filings when forecasts were calling for an increase to 242,000. The decline indicates that the employment sector was a little stronger than expected last week. Fortunately, this is a weekly report that doesn?t draw too much attention.

Tomorrow morning has three pieces of economic data for the markets to digest. Aprils Retail Sales is first at 8:30 AM ET. This is an extremely important report for the financial markets since it measures consumer spending. Consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, so this data can have a pretty significant impact on the markets. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.6% increase in sales from March to April. A much weaker than expected level of sales should push bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower Friday morning as it would signal that economic activity may not be as strong as thought. However, an unexpected increase could fuel concerns of economic growth that would lead to stock buying and bond selling, pushing mortgage rates higher.

Also early tomorrow morning will be the release of Aprils Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is the sister report to todays PPI, but measures inflationary pressures at the more important consumer level of the economy. These results will be watched closely and could lead to significant volatility in the bond market and mortgage pricing if they show any significant surprises. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.2% increase in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data reading. This data can also affect the Feds timeline for raising key short-term interest rates and will also help dictate mortgage rate direction.

Mays preliminary reading to the University of Michigans Index of Consumer Sentiment will close out the weeks calendar just before 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This index measures consumer willingness to spend, which relates to consumer spending. If consumers are more confident in their own financial situations, they are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. This report usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets though, because it is not exactly factual data. It is expected to show a reading of 96.5, which would be a decline from Aprils final reading of 97.0, indicating consumers are less confident than last month. If it shows a large decline in consumer confidence, bond prices could rise and mortgage rates would move slightly lower because waning confidence means consumers are less apt to make a large purchase in the near future. I suspect that the earlier reports will draw the most attention Friday and have the bigger impact on mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Rates dipped this morning...

Fridays bond market has opened well in positive territory following favorable results in todays more important economic data. The stock markets are showing minor losses, pushing the Dow lower by 37 points and the Nasdaq down 5 points. The bond market is currently up 16/32 (2.33%), which should improve this morning?s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

Yesterdays 30-year Bond auction went better than Wednesdays 10-year Note sale. Investor demand for the securities was not strong but better than Wednesday. The bond market had little reaction to the results, meaning there was no impact on mortgage rates Thursdays afternoon.

Aprils Retail Sales was first of this mornings three economic reports. The Commerce Department announced at 8:30 AM ET that sales at retail level establishments rose 0.4% last month, falling short of the 0.6% increase that was expected. Even a secondary reading that excludes more volatile auto transactions came in softer than forecasts. That indicates consumers spent less last month than many had thought. Because consumer spending makes up such a huge portion of the U.S. economy and bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions, this report should be considered good news for mortgage rates.

Also at 8:30 AM was the release of Aprils Consumer Price Index (CPI). It showed a 0.2% increase in the overall reading and a 0.1% rise in the more important core data. Since analysts were expecting to see a 0.2% increase in both, we can consider this report slightly favorable for bonds and mortgage rates as it points towards tame inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy.

The final release of the week was May's preliminary reading to the University of Michigans Index of Consumer Sentiment late this morning. It stood at 97.7, up from April?s 97.0. This report was expected to show a small decline, meaning surveyed consumers were more optimistic about their own financial situations than predicted. As confidence rises, consumers tend to spend more, fueling economic growth. Therefore, this data is negative for bonds and mortgage pricing.

Next week is light in terms of events that are expected to affect mortgage rates. There are a couple economic reports scheduled, none of which are considered highly important. Monday has nothing set, so it is a safe bet that weekend news or stocks will drive trading and mortgage rate movement as the new week starts. Look for details on next weeks schedule in Sunday evening?s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Mondays bond market has opened in negative territory as stocks open the week with noticeable gains. The Dow is currently up 73 points while the Nasdaq is up 18 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32 (2.34%), but due to strength late Friday we should see little change in this mornings mortgage pricing.

There is nothing if importance scheduled for release today. The rest of the week brings us only three pieces of relevant monthly economic data. None of them are considered to be highly important or likely to cause a noticeable move in rates. That means if we see volatility in the markets or mortgage pricing, it will be a result of other factors.

Tomorrow has two of the three releases, starting with April's Housing Starts at 8:30 AM ET. This report will give us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking newly issued permits and actual starts of new home construction. It is expected to show an increase in new construction starts from March's reading, hinting at housing sector growth. However, since this report is not considered to be of high importance to the bond market, it likely will have little impact on mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

The second piece of data tomorrow will be Aprils Industrial Production report at 9:15 AM ET. It measures manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.3% increase in production, indicating that manufacturing activity strengthened. A decline in output would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it would indicate that the manufacturing sector is not as strong as thought. This report is considered to be moderately important, so it will likely need to show unexpected strength or weakness to cause movement in mortgage rates.

Overall, every day is a good candidate for most and least important day of the week. None of this weeks data is likely to cause significant movement in the markets or mortgage rates. That does not mean that we will not see rate changes, but sizable moves are not expected. Even though this is probably going to be a fairly calm week for rates, it still is prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if closing in the near future and still floating since market conditions can change without notice.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

When you refinance your home, your options aren't limited to the traditional 10-, 15-, 20- or 30-year term anymore. With Flex Term, you can choose any term between 8 and 30 years. It's a great option for borrowers who want to refi, but don't want to start all over.

We just received a HUGE new release with a few of our lenders. We are excited to announce the Conforming Plus Student Loan Cash Out Program! The Student Loan program allows borrowers to pay off student loans without a cash out pricing adjustment. This program will be available Monday, May 15, 2017.

This is extremely good news considering that student loan rates are going to skyrocket in the very near future.

 

[Tamalewagon]

Tuesdays bond market has opened fairly flat following mixed economic news. The major stock indexes are showing minor gains during early trading, pushing the Dow higher by 47 points and the Nasdaq up 8 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (2.33%), which should keep this mornings mortgage rates very close to yesterdays morning levels.

Aprils Housing Starts was the first of this morning?s two pieces of economic data. The Commerce Department announced at 8:30 AM ET that new home groundbreakings fell 2.6% last month, hinting at weakness in the new home portion of the housing sector. Analysts were expecting to see an increase in sales. Also, a secondary reading that tracks new permits issued and helps predict future construction starts, was weaker than predicted. Since a softening housing sector makes broader economic growth more difficult, this is good news for bonds and mortgage rates. Unfortunately, this report is not considered to be highly important to the markets, limiting its influence on todays rates.

The second piece of data posted this morning was Aprils Industrial Production at 9:15 AM ET. It showed a 1.0% increase in output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities, exceeding forecasts of a 0.3% rise. This news is negative for mortgage rates because it shows that the manufacturing sector may have been stronger than many had thought last month. This report also is not considered to be key data, so its results have had a minimal impact on today?s mortgage pricing.

Tomorrow does not have any relevant economic data being released. Therefore, we can expect stocks to be the likely source of bond movement and changes to mortgage rates. It will probably be a fairly quiet day for the mortgage market, unless something very unexpected happens.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Dip in the rates today campers...good day to lock in.

Wednesdays bond market has opened well in positive territory as news and rumors out of Washington take center stage. Stocks are reacting as expected, by posting sizable losses. The Dow is currently down 218 points while the Nasdaq has lost 71 points. The bond market is currently up 21/32 (2.25%), which should improve this mornings mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic data being posted today. However, the markets are extremely active due to the latest news out of Washington. There is much debate on how this all plays out and the word impeachment is now being thrown around much more. Depending on what side of the isle you may sit, that happening is a possibility or completely unrealistic. Time will tell.

What is relevant though is the impact it is having on the markets. The major stock indexes have rallied heavily since President Trump won the election last November. And accordingly, bonds and mortgage rates have suffered. Regardless if President Trump can weather this situation or not, his political agenda and economic policies may be in jeopardy. At the very least, they may be harder to get passed than they were a couple weeks ago. The post-election stock rally was attributed to his pro-economic growth agenda. If his agenda is at risk, one could argue that since stocks rallied based on that platform, those gains are also at risk. If stocks do unwind a good part of that rally, bonds and mortgage rates should benefit.

Tomorrow has two minor pieces of economic data that are likely to be non-factors in the markets considering the political issues currently taking place. First will come last weeks unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET, followed by Aprils Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) at 10:00 AM. The early report is expected to show that initial claims for unemployment benefits rose from 236,000 the previous week to 240,000 last week. The higher the number, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates.

The LEI is a Conference Board report that attempts to predict economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a 0.4% increase from Marchs reading, meaning that economic activity is likely to strengthen over the next few months. A decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Thursdays bond market has opened down slightly as stocks recover part of yesterdays heavy sell-off. The Dow is currently up 49 points while the Nasdaq has gained 43 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32 (2.22%), but strength late yesterday should still allow this mornings rates to be a little lower than yesterdays early pricing.

This mornings release of last weeks unemployment figures showed that 232,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. That was a decline from the previous weeks 240,000 initial filings. Since analysts were expecting to see an increase, we can consider this news to be negative for bonds and mortgage rates since declining claims is a sign of a strengthening employment sector. However, this is only a weekly report, so its impact on todays mortgage pricing has been minimal.

The Conference Board announced at 10:00 AM ET that their Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) rose 0.3%, meaning they are predicting moderate economic growth over the next several months. Forecasts were calling for a 0.4% increase, allowing us to consider this data neutral to slightly positive for bonds and mortgage rates.

Tomorrow does not have any relevant economic data scheduled for release. There are a couple of Fed member speaking engagements that always draw attention. Neither of tomorrow?s speeches are expected to cause too much volatility in the financial or mortgage markets. It is likely that stocks and news out of Washington will be the biggest influences on tomorrow?s bond trading and mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Fridays bond market has opened in negative territory with stocks showing noticeable gains and little else to drive bonds this morning. The Dow is currently up 88 points while the Nasdaq is up 35 points. The bond market is currently down 7/32 (2.25%), which with yesterdays afternoon weakness should push this mornings mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point over Thursday?s early pricing.

Today does not have any relevant economic data scheduled. I believe we are seeing profit-taking from this weeks big bond rally, where traders sell some holdings to lock in profits from that unexpected run. The benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield is right at a key level (2.25%). If we break above that threshold, it could move quickly back into the mid-2.3 range, bringing mortgage rates higher with it. Failing to move above would be a good sign for mortgage shoppers.

Next week brings us a handful of relevant economic data, but none are considered to be extremely important. There is nothing of relevance set for Monday and the most important data is scheduled for late in the week. In addition to the economic data, there are also a couple of Treasury auctions and the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting on the calendar. Look for details on all of next weeks activities in Sunday evening?s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Mondays bond market has opened down slightly as stocks start the week with gains. The Dow is currently up 80 points while the Nasdaq is up 29 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32 (2.24%), but due to some strength late Friday we still should see a slight improvement in this mornings mortgage rates if comparing to Fridays early pricing.

There is nothing of importance scheduled for today. The rest of the week brings us the release of five pieces of economic data that may impact mortgage rates in addition to two Treasury auctions and the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting. None of the events are considered key or expected to be a market mover, but most of them carry enough importance to affect mortgage pricing if they show a decent sized variance from forecasts.

The first release of the week will be Aprils New Home Sales report at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This data gives us a small measurement of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand but probably will not have much of an impact on mortgage pricing unless it shows a sizable variance from forecasts. Analysts are expecting to see a decline in sales from Marchs level, meaning the new home portion of the housing sector softened last month.

Overall, Friday is the most important day of the week with three pieces of data being released, but Wednesday may also be pretty active. The calmest day for rates day will probably be today or Thursday. Last weeks bond rally pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield below a key level of 2.25% before inching back to it. If it breaks above, there is a high probably of it and mortgage pricing moving noticeably higher. On the other hand, if that level holds, there is room for further improvements in rates. The next couple of days will tell which direction we are likely headed. Accordingly, please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future as we could see a noticeable move either direction this week.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

lower mortgage rates today...

Tuesdays bond market has opened in positive territory following a mixed open in stocks and favorable economic news. The major stock indexes are calm but mixed with the Dow up 29 points and the Nasdaq down 4 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32 (2.24%), which should keep this morning?s mortgage rates at yesterdays early levels.

The Commerce Department gave us Aprils New Home Sales report at 10:00 AM ET this morning. It revealed an 11.4% decline in sales of newly constructed homes last month. This was a much larger decline than was expected, meaning the new home portion of the housing sector was softer than many had thought. That makes the data favorable for bonds and mortgage rates because a weaker housing sector makes broader economic growth less likely. However, this is not considered to be a highly important piece of data, so we are seeing a minimal reaction in the bond market.

Tomorrow has three events worth watching as they may influence mortgage rates. National Association of Realtors will bring us the first when they post their Existing Home Sales report at 10:00 AM ET. As with its sister report (todays New Home Sales), this data will also give us a measurement of housing sector strength demand but tracks resales of existing homes in the U.S. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in home sales between March and April. Ideally, the bond market would prefer to see a large decline, indicating housing sector weakness. A large increase in sales could lead to bond weakness and a slight increase in mortgage rates tomorrow morning since a strengthening housing sector raises optimism about general economic growth.

The days other two events will come during afternoon trading. One is the minutes of the last FOMC meeting. Market participants will be looking for how Fed members voted during the last meeting and any comments about inflation or concerns regarding economic growth. The goal is to form opinions about the Feds next move regarding interest rates, which is expected to happen at an upcoming FOMC meeting. Since the minutes will be released at 2:00 PM ET, if there is a market reaction to them it will be evident during mid-afternoon trading tomorrow.

Also tomorrow afternoon is the first of this weeks two Treasury auctions that are worth watching. The Fed will auction 5-year Notes tomorrow and 7-year Notes on Thursday. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions to mortgage rates. On the other hand, strong sales usually make bonds more attractive to investors, bringing more funds into bonds. The buying of bonds that follows often translates into lower mortgage rates. Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each auction day, so look for any reaction to come during early afternoon hours tomorrow and Thursday.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

update on rates...for a rate and term refinance, rates are still in the high 3% to low 4% range. :thumbup:

 

[Tamalewagon]

We have a 1% down payment program available. For regular refinance's and purchase loans, rates are still in the high 3% to low 4% range on the 30 year fixed product. 15 year fixed rates are much lower.