Mortgage Market Update/Purchase and Refinance Mortgage info

[Tamalewagon]

Mondays bond market has opened fairly flat despite favorable data and a weak open in stocks. The major stock indexes are starting the week with sizable losses, pushing the Dow lower by 128 points and the Nasdaq down 19 points. The bond market is currently up 1/32 (1.89%), which should keep this morning?s mortgage rates at Fridays levels.

Todays only economic data was Marchs New Home Sales numbers at 10:00 AM ET. The Commerce Department reported that sales of newly constructed homes fell 1.5% last month when analysts were expecting to see a small increase in sales. This news indicates the new home portion of the housing sector was softer than many had thought, making it good news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, this is a minor report that doesn?t draw too much attention, preventing it from helping mortgage rates this morning.

The rest of the week brings us the release of six more economic reports that may affect mortgage rates in addition to an FOMC meeting and a couple Treasury auctions. One those reports is considered to be extremely important to the financial and mortgage markets and can cause a great deal of volatility. Throw in the FOMC meeting and we have the makings of a highly important week, not only for mortgage rates but also for the broader financial markets.

Tomorrow has two of those reports scheduled, starting with March's Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET. This important Commerce Department report gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items at U.S. factories. These are products that are expected to last three or more years, such as appliances, electronics and airplanes. Current forecasts are calling for an increase in new orders of 1.7%. This would be a sign of manufacturing sector strength, but this data can be quite volatile from month-to-month. Therefore, a small variance between forecasts and the actual results will not heavily influence the markets or mortgage rates. A large decline would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage pricing, while a large rise would indicate strength in the sector. A sign of solid manufacturing growth could lead to higher mortgage rates tomorrow.

Aprils Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will also be posted tomorrow, but at 10:00 AM ET. This index is considered to be an indicator of future spending by consumers. The Conference Board surveys 5,000 consumers from across the country about their personal financial situations. If sentiment is strong or rising, it is believed that consumers are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. However, if they are concerned about issues such as job security and savings, they will probably delay making large purchases. The latter is better for the bond market and mortgage rates because the expected slowdown in spending would keep inflation and economic growth to a minimum. On the other hand, a sizable increase could hurt the bond market, pushing mortgage rates higher tomorrow. It is expected to show a reading of 96.7, which would be an increase from March's 96.2 reading. The lower the reading, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

In addition to this weeks economic reports, there are two relatively important Treasury auctions that may also influence bond trading enough to affect mortgage rates. There will be an auction of 5-year Treasury Notes tomorrow and 7-year Notes on Thursday. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions to mortgage rates. On the other hand, strong sales usually make government securities more attractive to investors and bring more funds into bonds. The buying of bonds that follows usually translates into lower mortgage rates. Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each auction day, so look for any reaction to come during afternoon hours.

Overall, I am expecting it to be a pretty active week for the markets and mortgage rates. We have several days that appear likely to be particularly volatile. Wednesday looks to be the best candidate for most important due to the FOMC meeting but Thursday?s GDP reading can easily be a market-mover. Tomorrow may be active also. Therefore, if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future, I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional this week.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Tuesdays bond market has opened flat again even though we saw two favorable pieces of economic data. The stock markets are fairly calm also with the Dow up 26 points and the Nasdaq up 6 points. The bond market is currently down 1/32 (1.91%), which should keep this mornings mortgage rates at yesterday?s levels.

Marchs Durable Goods Orders was the first of this mornings two relevant economic report. The Commerce Department announced at 8:30 AM ET that new order for big-ticket items rose 0.8% at U.S. factories last month, falling short of the 1.7% that was expected. Even a secondary reading that excludes more volatile products such as orders for new airplanes came in much lower than forecasts (-0.2% vs +0.5%). The data signals that the manufacturing sector is not as strong as many had thought, making the data good news for bonds and mortgage rates. This is a pretty important report, so it is a bit surprising that we have not seen a more positive reaction to the data.

Aprils Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) was released at 10:00 AM ET by the Conference Board. This non-governmental agency said their CCI stood at 94.2 this month. That was well below forecasts of 96.7 and was decline from March?s revised 96.1. What that means is that fewer surveyed consumers were comfortable with their personal financial situations than were in March. Because waning confidence usually translates into softer levels of consumer spending and weaker economic growth, this is report is also good news for mortgage rates.

Today also has the first of two relatively important Treasury auctions that may also influence bond trading enough to affect mortgage rates. 5-year Treasury Notes are being sold today while 7-year Notes go on Thursday. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions to mortgage rates. On the other hand, strong sales usually make government securities more attractive to investors and bring more funds into bonds. The buying of bonds that follows usually translates into lower mortgage rates. Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each auction day, so look for any reaction to come during afternoon hours.

There is no influential economic data being posted tomorrow, but we do have the FOMC meeting adjournment mid-afternoon. It will likely adjourn with an announcement of no change to key short-term interest rates, but we may see some volatility in the markets following the post-meeting statement. If the statement gives any hint of change in their current forecasts on when they expect to adjust key short-term interest rates again, we could see a sizable change to mortgage rates tomorrow afternoon. This meeting will not be followed by a Fed press conference or economic projections.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Kylemenz1]

Hey Scott my buddy from work is going to give you a call. He's thinking about refinancing and I told him to give you a shout to discuss options. I told him you're a stand up dude and will lay out a good plan for him.

I think you might be at Desert Storm so have some fun if you are!!!:thumbup::thumbup:

 

[Tamalewagon]

Monday?s bond market has opened in negative territory following mixed results in this morning?s important economic report. The stock markets are starting the week with moderate gains of 65 points in the Dow and 7 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 5/32 (1.85%), but due to strength late Friday we should see little change in this morning?s mortgage rates.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) opened the week?s calendar of events late this morning with the release of their April manufacturing index. It came in at 50.8, falling short of the 51.4 that was expected and down from March?s 51.8. This means fewer surveyed manufacturers felt business improved last month than did in March. That is good news for the bond and mortgage markets because it points to a softening manufacturing sector. However, a secondary reading that tracks prices paid rose much higher than expected, to its highest level since September 2014. The jump raises concern about inflationary pressures that make bonds less attractive to investors. Therefore, we are seeing a negative reaction to the news instead of a positive move.

The rest of the week brings us the release of four more pieces of economic data that are likely to influence mortgage rates including the almighty monthly Employment report. There is nothing of importance scheduled for tomorrow, so look for stocks to influence bond trading and possibly mortgage pricing. Wednesday has three of the four releases, so it may be a pretty active day for the markets.

Overall, Friday is the single most important day of the week due to the significance of the monthly Employment report. Tomorrow is the best candidate for lightest day because traders will probably be making adjustments Thursday before Friday?s key economic release. Due to the significance of some of this week?s data, I highly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional this week if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Wednesday?s bond market has opened relatively flat following mixed economic news. The stock markets are showing early losses with the Dow down 68 points and the Nasdaq down 27 points. The bond market is nearly unchanged from yesterday?s close (1.79%), which should keep this morning?s mortgage rates at yesterday?s levels.

The first of this morning?s three economic releases was ADP?s April Employment report at 8:15 AM ET. It showed that 156,000 new private sector jobs were added last month, falling well short of the 196,000 that was expected. It was also a sizable decline from March?s 194,000 payrolls that was revised lower from the previous estimate of 200,000. The lower number of payrolls makes the data favorable for bonds and mortgage rates.

At 8:30 AM ET, 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data was posted, giving us measurement of employee productivity in the workplace. It revealed a 1.0% decline in worker output, but because analysts were calling for a larger decline and stronger levels of productivity is good news in this data, we can consider the news favorable also. However, this report is considered to be of low importance unless it shows a significant variance from forecasts.

February's Factory Orders closed out this morning?s releases, coming at 10:00 AM ET. The Commerce Department announced a 1.1% jump in new orders for durable and non-durable goods. Forecasts predicted a 0.5% increase, meaning new orders were stronger than thought. That is a sign of manufacturing sector strength, causing us to label this report as negative for mortgage rates.

Tomorrow?s only relevant data will be last week?s unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET. They are expected to show that 259,000 new claims for benefits were filed, up slightly from 257,000 of the previous week. Ideally, we want to see a large increase in initial claims, indicating employment sector weakness. The higher the number of claims, the better the news it is for mortgage rates. It is worth noting though that this is only a weekly snapshot, so I am not expecting it to have much of an impact on tomorrow?s mortgage pricing.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Thursdays bond market has opened in negative territory despite a piece of favorable economic news. The stock markets are showing relatively minor gains with the Dow up 53 points and the Nasdaq up 2 points. The bond market is currently down 3/32 (1.78%), which should keep this mornings mortgage rates at yesterdays levels.

Todays only economic news was last weeks unemployment update that showed 274,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed. This was an increase from the previous weeks 257,000 new claims and exceeded forecasts of 259,000. This is good news for the bond and mortgage markets because it indicates the employment sector softened last week. Unfortunately, this is only a weekly report, so its impact on todays trading has been minimal.

Tomorrow brings us only one piece of data but it is a major report that is usually a market mover. At 8:30 AM ET tomorrow, the Labor Department will post Marchs Employment report. It will give us the U.S. unemployment rate, the number of jobs added or lost during the month and average earnings. It is expected to show that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0% and that approximately 207,000 payrolls were added to the economy during the month. A higher unemployment rate and a much smaller than expected payroll number would be good news for bonds and would likely push mortgage rates lower tomorrow morning because it would indicate weaker than thought conditions in the employment sector of the economy. However, stronger than expected results would probably fuel a stock rally and bond selling that leads to a sizable increase in mortgage pricing.

Tomorrow is likely to be a pretty active day. It is my guess that the payroll number will come in light, making the report favorable for rates. But that is just speculation, so please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate as a stronger number could cause rates to spike higher.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Friday?s bond market has opened initially in positive territory following a weaker than expected payroll number in this morning?s key economic report but has since slipped into negative ground. The major stock indexes are mixed after early trading indicated there would be heavier selling. The Dow is currently up 4 points while the Nasdaq is down by the same amount. The bond market is currently down 6/32 (1.76%), but due to strength late yesterday we should still see an improvement in this morning?s mortgage rates is comparing to yesterday?s early pricing.

Today?s big news was March's Employment report at 8:30 AM ET. It showed that the unemployment rate remained at 5.00% as expected. The good news came in the payroll number that was at 160,000 new jobs. This was the smallest gain since last September and fell well short of the 207,000 that was forecasted. Minor downward revisions to February and March are worth noting also since they also help indicate the employment sector is not as strong as many had thought.

The average hourly earnings reading rose 0.3% last month and is worth mentioning. This pegged expectations but is still somewhat a point of concern because of its recent pattern. Since late last year we have seen an increase in earnings followed by a flat number and then it repeats. This is the second consecutive month of an increase, breaking that cycle and putting focus on May?s earnings number that will be posted next month. If we see another increase of the same size or stronger, fears of wage-inflation are likely to be a topic of discussion. And since any type of inflationary news is considered negative for the bond market, we will be watching related data very closely.

Overall, today?s report is good news for bonds and mortgage rates. The reaction in the bond market is a bit confusing compared to what we would have expected though. This may be partly a result of the earnings number or the fact that the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield is nearing its recent low point again that makes a bounce higher a possibility. Either way, with today?s move it may be worth at least considering the option of locking an interest rate if still floating and closing in the near future.

Next week brings us the release of only a couple of economic reports but most of them are considered to be highly important. There are also two Treasury auctions that are known to affect mortgage rates on their sale dates. However, everything appears to come the middle and latter days of the week with nothing set for Monday. Look for details on next week?s calendar in Sunday evening?s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Mondays bond market has opened in positive territory even though we have nothing of importance scheduled to drive trading. Stocks are starting the week mixed with the Dow down 16 points and the Nasdaq up 19 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32 (1.76%), but I don?t believe we will see much of a change in this mornings mortgage rates if comparing to Fridays early pricing due to some weakness late Friday.

There is nothing of importance scheduled for release today or tomorrow. The rest of the week brings us the release of three economic reports that have the potential to influence mortgage rates. Two of the reports are considered to be of elevated importance to the bond market and, therefore mortgage rates. This raises the possibility of seeing noticeable movement in rates multiple days this week.

The first events of the week will be a couple Treasury auctions Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. All of the important data will be posted Friday morning, including a key consumer spending reading and inflation reading at the producer level of the economy.

Overall, the calmest day for mortgage rates will likely be tomorrow while the best candidate for most active day is Friday. We also need to watch stocks for mortgage rate movement. Generally speaking, stock weakness usually makes bonds more attractive while stock gains tend to draw funds from bonds, leading to higher mortgage rates. I suspect we won?t see too much volatility the next day or so, easing the risk of floating an interest rate. However, conditions can change at any time so please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating a rate, especially if closing in the near future.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Good rates today - www.wmrloans.com

 

[Tamalewagon]

Tuesdays bond market has opened down slightly with stocks showing sizable gains during early trading. The Dow is currently up 165 points while the Nasdaq has gained 29 points. The bond market is currently down 3/32 (1.76%), which may push this morning?s mortgage rates slightly higher than Monday?s morning pricing.

There is nothing of importance scheduled for release today or tomorrow morning. If we see bonds move enough to affect rates, it will likely be a result of a change in stocks. If the major stock indexes extend this mornings gains, we could see more pressure build in bonds that lead to a slight upward revision to mortgage pricing. On the other hand, if stocks give back a good portion of their early strength, bonds and mortgage rates could improve later today.

While there is no relevant economic data set for release tomorrow, we do have the first of this weeks two Treasury auctions that are likely influence rates. The Treasury will hold a 10-year Note sale tomorrow and a 30-year Bond sale Thursday. Results of the auctions will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. If they are met with a strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise enough during afternoon trading to cause downward revisions to mortgage rates. However, lackluster bidding in the sales, meaning longer-term securities are losing their appeal, could lead to higher mortgage pricing those afternoons.

We do have some important economic data for the markets to digest, but it does not come until Friday morning. They include a key consumer spending reading and an inflation reading at the producer level of the economy. The Treasury auctions could affect rates until we get to the week?s data as participating firms sometimes sell holdings before these sales and rebuy after if they went well. But I am still expecting to see the most movement in rates Friday.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

by: Matthew Graham

Mortgage Rates Officially Hit 3-Year Lows

May 10 2016, 3:53PM

Mortgage rates didn't move any lower today, but they earned an important distinction nonetheless. As of today, you'd have to go back 3 full years to see rate sheets any lower, on average. May 10th, 2013 was a very bumpy day for rates, and it capped a week that served as the starting point for the 'taper tantrum' (several months of rapidly increasing rates as markets adjusted to the idea that the Fed would be ending its bond buying program). With a range of 3.5 to 3.625%, today's top tier conventional 30yr fixed quotes are right in line with those seen on May 9th.

There was no meaningful inspiration for bond markets today, but it is somewhat reassuring that they've continued to hold ground even as stocks have moved much higher in recent days. While it's never a 1:1 relationship, higher stock prices often accompany a move toward higher rates as investors sell bonds (bond prices and rates have an inverse relationship).

Given that rates are at 3-year lows and that we've had a tough time breaking any lower from here, there's certainly no reason to second guess locking. Conversely, given that we've managed to stay low in spite of some headwinds, risk-takers are justified in floating, but should always set a limit as to how much higher rates could go before they lock at a loss.

 

[Tamalewagon]

check them www.wmrloans.com

 

[satellitemike]

by: Matthew Graham

Mortgage Rates Officially Hit 3-Year Lows

May 10 2016, 3:53PM

Mortgage rates didn't move any lower today, but they earned an important distinction nonetheless. As of today, you'd have to go back 3 full years to see rate sheets any lower, on average. May 10th, 2013 was a very bumpy day for rates, and it capped a week that served as the starting point for the 'taper tantrum' (several months of rapidly increasing rates as markets adjusted to the idea that the Fed would be ending its bond buying program). With a range of 3.5 to 3.625%, today's top tier conventional 30yr fixed quotes are right in line with those seen on May 9th.

There was no meaningful inspiration for bond markets today, but it is somewhat reassuring that they've continued to hold ground even as stocks have moved much higher in recent days. While it's never a 1:1 relationship, higher stock prices often accompany a move toward higher rates as investors sell bonds (bond prices and rates have an inverse relationship).

Given that rates are at 3-year lows and that we've had a tough time breaking any lower from here, there's certainly no reason to second guess locking. Conversely, given that we've managed to stay low in spite of some headwinds, risk-takers are justified in floating, but should always set a limit as to how much higher rates could go before they lock at a loss.

How many points are there on the back end?

 

[Tamalewagon]

How many points are there on the back end?

Our rates for the conforming 30 year fixed are lower than 3.5 and 3.625% Mike. See PM I sent over to you. That article refers to national averages. We are always lower. Go to www.wmrloans.com and click on "products" in the top border then click on the 30 year fixed product.

Scott

 

[Tamalewagon]

Wednesday?s bond market has opened flat despite early selling in stocks. The major stock indexes are showing fairly sizable losses with the Dow down 101 points and the Nasdaq down 12 points. The bond market is currently up 1/32 (1.75%), which should keep this morning?s mortgage rates at yesterday?s levels.

Todays only relevant event is this afternoons 10-year Treasury Note auction. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading. If investor demand for the securities was strong, we could see the bond market improve and mortgage rates improve slightly sometime this afternoon. However, a lackluster interest, meaning longer-term securities are losing their appeal, could lead to higher mortgage pricing this afternoon.

Tomorrows only economic data is last weeks unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET. They are expected to show 270,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, dropping from the previous weeks 274,000 initial filings. Since rising claims hints at a weakening employment sector, the larger the number the better the news it is for mortgage rates. Although, it is worth noting that because this is only a weekly snapshot, it usually takes a surprise increase or decline for the report to noticeably affect rates.

We also have the second of this weeks two Treasury auctions that may influence mortgage rates tomorrow. 30-year Bonds will be sold tomorrow with results also being posted at 1:00 PM ET. Todays sale usually has more of an impact on mortgage pricing but the 30-year Bonds can also cause an intraday revision if the sale goes really strong or weak.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Rates are relatively unchanged today. www.wmrloans.com

 

[Tamalewagon]

Thursday?s bond market has opened in negative territory even though today?s only relevant economic data gave us favorable results. The stock markets are mixed but fairly calm with the Dow up 48 points and the Nasdaq down 1 point. The bond market is currently down 5/32 (1.7%), which should keep this morning?s mortgage rates close to Wednesday?s levels.

Yesterday?s 10-year Treasury Note auction went very well. The benchmarks we use to gauge investor demand showed a strong level of investor interest in the securities. That helps us to be optimistic about today?s 30-year Bond auction. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading. Another strong sale should help boost bond prices this afternoon, possibly leading to a slight improvement in rates before the end of the day. However, a weak level of interest could pressure bonds later today.

Last week?s unemployment figures were posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning. They showed that 294,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were field last week, up noticeably from the previous week?s 274,000. Analysts were expecting to see a small decline in initial claims, meaning the employment sector was softer than thought last week. That makes the data good news for bonds and mortgage rates, but since this is only a weekly snapshot its impact on today?s rates has been minimal.

Tomorrow has three pieces of economic data for the markets to digest, two of which are considered to be highly important. The first will be April's Retail Sales at 8:30 AM ET. This is an extremely important report for the financial markets since it measures consumer spending. Consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, so this data can have a pretty significant impact on the markets. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.8% increase in sales from March to April. A weaker than expected level of sales should push bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower tomorrow morning as it would signal that economic activity may not be as strong as thought. However, an unexpected increase could fuel concerns of economic growth that would lead to stock buying and bond selling, pushing mortgage rates higher.

April's Producer Price Index (PPI) will also be released at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow. It helps us track inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. If this report reveals weaker than expected readings, indicating inflation is not a concern at the manufacturing level, we should see the bond market improve. The overall index is expected to rise 0.3%, while the core data that excludes more volatile food and energy prices has been forecasted to rise 0.1%. A decline in the core data will be ideal for mortgage shoppers because inflation is the number one nemesis for long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds. As inflation rises, longer-term securities become less appealing to investors since inflation erodes the value of those securities' future fixed interest payments. That is one of the reasons why the bond market tends to thrive in weaker economic conditions with low levels of inflation.

May's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment will close out the week's calendar just before 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This index measures consumer willingness to spend, which relates to consumer spending. If consumers are more confident in their own financial situations, they are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. This report usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets though, because it is not exactly factual data. It is expected to show a reading of 89.7, which would be an increase from April's final reading of 89.0, indicating consumers are more confident than last month. If it shows a large decline in consumer confidence, bond prices could rise and mortgage rates would move slightly lower because waning confidence means consumers are less apt to make a large purchase in the near future. I suspect that the earlier reports will draw the most attention and have the bigger impact on mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Check them. www.wmrloans.com

shop us against any lender...we will beat their rate and their turn time on conforming and conforming jumbo loans.

 

[Tamalewagon]

Check our rates at www.WMRLoans.com





Friday?s bond market has opened in positive territory despite stronger than expected results from a couple of this morning?s economic reports. The stock markets are reacting opposite of what one would expect also, pushing the Dow lower by 59 points and the Nasdaq down 4 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32 (1.73%), but I don?t believe we will see much of a change in this morning?s mortgage rates.

The first of this morning?s three pieces of data gave us slightly favorable results with a 0.2% increase in the overall Producer Price Index (PPI) and a 0.1% rise in the core data that excludes more volatile food and energy costs. Analysts were expecting to see increases of 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. The slightly weaker overall reading indicates inflationary pressures were softer than thought and the producer level of the economy. However, the more important core reading matched forecasts, making the report neutral-to-slightly favorable for mortgage rates.

Also at 8:30 AM ET was the release of April?s Retail Sales report. This was the bad news in this morning?s releases. It showed a 1.3% jump in retail level spending, exceeding forecasts of a 0.8% rise. Even a secondary reading that excludes more costly and volatile auto sales was stronger than expectations. This means that consumers spent more last month than thought, making the news negative for bonds and mortgage pricing because it is a sign of solid economic growth.

The final release of the week was the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for May late this morning. It unexpectedly spiked to a reading of 95.8, greatly exceeding forecasts of 89.7. This reading indicates that consumers were much more confident in their own financial and employment situations and are likely to make a large purchase in the near future. That is bad news for the bond and mortgage markets because it points towards future economic growth.

Next week has only a couple of relevant economic reports scheduled for release in addition to the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting. There is nothing set for Monday, so expect weekend news and/or stock movement to drive bond trading and mortgage rates. Look for details on next week?s calendar in Sunday evening?s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Monday?s bond market has opened in negative territory, erasing gains from late Friday. The stock markets are starting the week in positive ground with the Dow up 69 points and the Nasdaq up 21 points. The bond market is currently down 13/32 (1.74%), but due to strength Friday afternoon we should see little change in this morning?s mortgage rates if comparing to Friday?s early pricing. If your lender revised rates lower Friday afternoon, you may see an increase this morning by the same amount.

There is nothing of importance set for release today. It is the only day of the week that has nothing scheduled that is relevant to mortgage rates. The rest of the week brings us the release of five pieces of economic news in addition to the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting. Only one of the economic reports is considered to be highly important to the markets and mortgage rates, but a couple do carry enough significance to influence mortgage rates if they show a wide variance from forecasts.

The majority of the data comes tomorrow morning with three releases set. April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) will kick off the week?s calendar at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow. This is the sister report of last week's PPI report, but measures inflationary pressures at the more important consumer level of the economy. These results will be watched closely and could lead to significant volatility in the bond market and mortgage pricing if they show any significant surprises. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.3% increase in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two readings as it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. This data can also affect the Fed's timeline for raising key short-term interest rates and will also help dictate mortgage rate direction.

April's Housing Starts will also be posted early tomorrow morning. This report will give us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking newly issued permits and actual starts of new home construction. It is expected to show an increase in new construction starts from March's reading, hinting at housing sector growth. However, since this report is not considered to be of high importance to the bond market, it likely will have little impact on mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts and the CPI matches expectations.

The third piece of data tomorrow is April's Industrial Production report at 9:15 AM ET. It measures manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.2% increase in production, indicating that manufacturing activity strengthened slightly. A decline in output would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it would indicate that the manufacturing sector is not as strong as thought. This report is considered to be moderately important, so it will likely need to show unexpected strength or weakness to cause movement in mortgage rates.

Overall, I believe tomorrow will be the most important day for rates due to the data being posted. Wednesday afternoon could also be pretty active if the minutes show anything of importance. The calmest day will likely be Thursday. Despite a relatively light calendar, I still recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet as conditions can change at any time.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Tuesday?s bond market has opened in positive territory despite stronger than expected economic news. The stock markets are showing moderate losses with the Dow down 57 points and the Nasdaq down 17 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32, but due to weakness yesterday afternoon, we should see little change in this morning?s mortgage rates.

There were three pieces of economic data posted this morning. The first was April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 AM ET. It showed a 0.4% increase in the overall reading a 0.2% rise in the more important core data. The increase in the overall reading slightly exceeded forecasts but the core reading pegged expectations. Therefore, we can consider the data neutral to slightly negative for bonds and mortgage rates.

April's Housing Starts was also posted early this morning. The Commerce Department announced a 6.6% jump in new home groundbreakings. This was a larger than expected rise, hinting at housing strength. Fortunately, this is not considered to be a highly important report and has had a minimal impact on today?s trading.

The third piece and final report of the morning was April's Industrial Production report at 9:15 AM ET. It showed a 0.7% increase in output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities, exceeding forecasts of a 0.2% rise. This news indicates that the manufacturing sector may be gaining strength, making the report bad news for mortgage rates. However, since this report is considered to be only moderately important, it apparently has also had little influence on this morning?s rates.

There is no relevant economic data set for release tomorrow morning, but the afternoon brings us the minutes of the last FOMC meeting. Market participants will be looking for how Fed members voted during the last meeting and any comments about inflation or concerns about economic growth. The goal is to form opinions about the Fed's next move regarding interest rates, which is expected to happen sometime a couple times before the end of the year. Since the minutes will be released at 2:00 PM ET, if there is a market reaction to them it will be evident during afternoon trading tomorrow.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Wednesday?s bond market has opened well in negative territory, continuing yesterday?s afternoon weakness. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow down 37 points and the Nasdaq up 13 points. The bond market is currently down 14/32 (1.82%), which with losses late yesterday should push this morning?s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point if comparing to Tuesday?s morning pricing. If your lender revised upward during afternoon hours yesterday, you likely will see less of an increase this morning.

There is nothing set for release this morning that was relevant to mortgage rates. We do have something to watch this afternoon though that can be a market mover or a non-factor. This would be the minutes of the last FOMC meeting. Market participants will be looking for how Fed members voted during the last meeting and any comments about inflation or concerns about economic growth. The goal is to form opinions about the Fed's next move regarding interest rates, which is expected to happen a couple times before the end of the year. Since the minutes will be released at 2:00 PM ET, if there is a market reaction to them it will be evident during mid-afternoon trading.

Tomorrow?s has two minor pieces of data scheduled for release. Last week?s unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET will be first. They are expected to show that 278,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, down from the previous week?s 294,000. Rising initial claims are a sign of employment sector weakness, so the larger the number of claims, the better the news it is for mortgage rates. Although, because this is only a weekly reading we usually need to see a significant variance from forecasts for it to impact mortgage rates.

The second report of the day will be April's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This Conference Board report attempts to predict economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a 0.3% increase from March's reading, meaning that economic activity is likely to strengthen over the next few months. A decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, while a much larger increase could cause mortgage rates to inch higher.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[79schiada]

Hi Scott, with such a great rate you got for me on my 15 year back in 2013 I thought I'd never refinance again. Well, looks like its time to ask if its worthwhile to do again. I checked the rates on your website and its anywhere between .375-.625 better than where I'm at currently. To refi to another 15yr isn't what I'd prefer, but are there other products with a similar, if not better rate, on a 10 year note? Thanks!

 

[Tamalewagon]

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[Tamalewagon]

Thursday?s bond market has opened in positive territory, recovering yesterday?s post-FOMC minutes losses in mortgage bonds. The stock markets are in selling mode this morning with the Dow down 137 points and the Nasdaq down 38 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32 (1.83%), but due to weakness yesterday afternoon, we should see little change in rates if comparing to Wednesday?s morning pricing.

Yesterday?s afternoon release of the FOMC minutes ended up being problematic for the bond and mortgage markets. They seemed to indicate the Fed is more likely to raise key short-term rates at next month?s FOMC meeting than many analysts had previously thought. The minutes also gave the impression that the Fed is comfortable that inflation is rising and will hit their goal of a 2.0% annual pace sooner than the markets were expecting. Accordingly, bonds turned south after the minutes were released at 2:00 PM, causing many lenders to revise rates higher before the end of the day. That said, this morning?s gains should erase or offset that intraday revision late yesterday.

Last week?s unemployment figures were posted early this morning, showing that 278,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was a decline from the previous week?s total of 294,000 initial claims. The decline means the employment sector appears to have strengthened last week. However, since the 278,000 matched forecasts, it has had little impact on today?s trading.

The second report of the day was April's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) at 10:00 AM ET. It gave us negative news with a 0.6% jump in the indicators that attempt to predict economic activity over the next several months. Since analysts were expecting to see a 0.3% increase, we should consider this data bad news for mortgage rates. Fortunately though, this is a minor release and has had a minimal influence on today?s trading.

Tomorrow has one piece of relevant economic data, coming from the National Association of Realtors. They will give us their Existing Home Sales report at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This data tracks resales of existing homes in the U.S. during April, giving us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. This type of data is relevant because a weakening housing sector makes broader economic growth less likely. Current forecasts are calling for a small increase in home sales between March and April. Ideally, the bond market would prefer to see a decline, indicating housing sector weakness. A large increase in sales could lead to bond weakness and a slight increase in mortgage rates Friday morning since a strengthening housing sector raises optimism about general economic growth.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Friday?s bond market has opened in negative territory with stocks looking to close the week on a strong note. The Dow is currently up 130 points while the Nasdaq has gained 56 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32 (1.85%), but strength late yesterday should prevent much of a move in this morning?s mortgage rates.

Today?s only relevant economic data came from the National Association of Realtors, who announced late this morning that home resales rose 1.7% last month. This was a little stronger than expected and indicates modest growth in housing sector, but was not enough of an increase to cause much of a reaction in bonds or mortgage rates. I believe this morning?s bond softness is more a result of stock gains than this sole report.

Next week has a few scheduled reports that may affect mortgage rates, but none of them are considered key data. One is of fairly high importance, although I don?t see it being a market mover. There are also two Treasury auctions that have the potential to influence bonds enough to cause a minor revision in rates along with a decent number of Fed member speaking engagements that are always wildcards.

With exception to a couple of Fed speeches, Monday has nothing of importance that we need to be concerned with. The data doesn?t start until Tuesday morning and what is being posted that day usually has a minimal impact on mortgage pricing. Look for details on next week?s calendar in Sunday evening?s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Monday?s bond market has opened in positive territory with stocks mixed and nothing of importance on today?s calendar. The Dow is currently down 9 points while the Nasdaq has gained 11 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32 (1.82%), which may improve this morning?s mortgage rates slightly from Friday?s early pricing.

There is nothing set for release today that is likely to affect mortgage rates with exception to a couple of speaking engagements by current Fed members. The rest of the week brings four pieces of economic data that may impact mortgage rates in addition to two Treasury auctions. None of the events are considered key or expected to be a market mover, but most of the reports do carry enough importance to affect mortgage pricing if they show a decent sized variance from forecasts.

The first release of the week will be April's New Home Sales report at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. It is the sister report of last week's Existing Home Sales. This data gives us a similar measurement of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand, but tracks a much smaller portion of housing sales than that report did. Actually, it probably will not have much of an impact on mortgage pricing unless it shows a sizable variance from forecasts. Analysts are expecting to see gains in sales from March's level, meaning the new home portion of the housing sector strengthened last month.

Overall, I think Thursday is the best candidate for most active day for mortgage rates this week although Friday's GDP reading will draw plenty of attention also if it shows a sizable revision. With two relatively important reports scheduled for Friday, it may also be an active day. The least active day will probably be Wednesday unless the stock markets rally or show sizable losses. Please keep in mind that we don't necessarily have to have important data for the markets and mortgage pricing to move considerably. Therefore, please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Tuesday?s bond market has opened in negative territory following much stronger than expected housing data. The stock markets are rallying with the Dow up 197 points and the Nasdaq up 65 points. The bond market is currently down 11/32 (1.87%), but due to some strength late yesterday I don?t believe we will see much of a change in this morning?s mortgage rates.

April's New Home Sales report was posted at 10:00 AM ET this morning. The Commerce Department announced a 16.6% spike in sales of newly constructed homes. This was the largest monthly increase in over 24 years and was the best level of sales since January 2008. The increase indicates strength in the new home portion of the housing sector, making the data bad news for mortgage pricing. Although this report doesn?t usually carry much significance, this surprisingly strong release has negatively impacted this morning?s bond and mortgage markets.

There is no relevant data scheduled for release tomorrow morning, but we do have the first of this week's two Treasury auctions that have the potential to influence rates. The Fed will auction 5-year Notes tomorrow and 7-year Notes on Thursday. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions to mortgage rates.

On the other hand, strong investor demand in these usually make bonds more attractive to investors, bringing more funds into the bond market. The buying of bonds that follows often translates into slightly lower mortgage rates. Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each auction day, so look for any reaction to come during afternoon hours tomorrow and Thursday.

We do have some fairly important data coming later in the week, including Durable Goods Orders and the revised 1st quarter GDP reading. None of the remaining data is considered key, but it does carry enough importance to cause movement in mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Wednesday?s bond market has opened flat with nothing of importance set for release this morning and stocks showing strength. The Dow is currently up 137 points while the Nasdaq is up 27 points. The bond market is currently unchanged from yesterday?s close (1.86%), which should keep this morning?s mortgage rates close to yesterday?s morning levels.

Even though we don?t have any relevant economic data being posted this morning, we do have an afternoon event that has the potential to affect bond prices enough to influence mortgage pricing slightly. That would be the first of this week's two Treasury auctions that is being held today. The Fed will auction 5-year Notes today and 7-year Notes tomorrow. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions to mortgage rates.

On the other hand, strong investor demand in these usually make bonds more attractive to investors, bringing more funds into the bond market. The buying of bonds that follows often translates into slightly lower mortgage rates. Results of the sales are posted at 1:00 PM ET each auction day, so look for any reaction to come during early afternoon hours today and/or tomorrow.

Tomorrow has two pieces of economic data set for release, both at 8:30 AM ET. The more important of the two is April's Durable Goods Orders. This Commerce Department report gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket products. These are items made with an expected life span of three or more years such as airplanes, appliances and electronics. It is currently expected to show an increase in new orders of approximately 0.6%, hinting that the manufacturing sector strengthened a little last month. That would be relatively bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but this data is known to be quite volatile. Therefore, a small variance from forecasts will likely have little impact on mortgage rates. The larger the decline, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

The second release of the morning will be last week's unemployment figures. They are expected to show that 275,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, down from the previous week?s 278,000 initial claims. This report usually doesn't cause much movement in the markets or mortgage rates unless it shows a significant jump or drop in initial claims for benefits. The higher the number of claims, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates since rising claims is a sign of employment sector weakness.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Thursdays bond market has opened in positive territory even though we got stronger than expected economic headlines. The stock markets are showing minor losses with the Dow down 42 points and the Nasdaq down 1 point. The bond market is currently up 8/32 (1.84%), but weakness late yesterday should keep this morning?s mortgage rates close to Wednesday?s early levels.

We saw some bond weakness late yesterday despite a pretty decent 5-year Treasury Note auction. Several benchmarks we use to gauge investor demand showed a fairly strong interest in the securities. While that didn?t seem to help much yesterday, it does allow us to be optimistic about today?s 7-year Note sale. Another strong level of investor demand should help boost bond prices this afternoon. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading.

The Commerce Department gave us the first of this morning?s two releases by posting April's Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET. They announced an increase of 3.4% that exceeded expectations of a 0.6% rise in new orders for big-ticket products. However, a secondary reading that tracks orders excluding more volatile and costly transportation-related items, such as new airplanes, rose only 0.4% when analysts were predicting a 0.5% increase. The mixed results seemed to prevent much of a reaction to the report.

Also posted early this morning was last week's unemployment figures. They showed that 268,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, down from the previous week?s 278,000 initial claims. This is a sign that the employment sector strengthened last week, especially since forecasts were calling for 275,000 claims. Fortunately, this is only a weekly snapshot and has not had much of an influence on today?s mortgage pricing.

Tomorrow has two reports scheduled for release. One is the first revision to the 1st quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 8:30 AM ET. The GDP is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best measurement of economic growth. Last month's preliminary reading revealed a 0.5% annual rate of growth. Analysts expect an upward revision of 0.4% in this update, equating to economic growth of 0.9%. If the revision comes in much stronger than expected, we may see the bond market react negatively and mortgage rates move higher because it would mean the economy was stronger than thought last quarter. Since bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions, a softer than predicted reading would be good news for mortgage rates.

The last mortgage-related data of the week will come from the University of Michigan just before 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning when they update their Index of Consumer Sentiment for May. This type of data is watched fairly closely because when consumers are feeling more confident about their own financial situations, they are more likely to make a large purchase in the near future. Rising confidence and the higher levels of spending that usually follow are considered negative news for bonds and mortgage rates. Tomorrow's report is expected to show a small downward revision to this month's preliminary reading of 95.8. A higher reading would be considered bad news for bonds and mortgage pricing while a larger decline should help boost bond prices and lead to a slight improvement in rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Fridays bond market has opened down slightly as the markets prepare for a long weekend. The major stock indexes are showing minor gains of 31 points in the Dow and 23 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 3/32 (1.83%), but we may still see a slight improvement in this mornings mortgage rates is comparing to Thursdays pricing due to strength in bonds late yesterday.

Yesterdays 7-year Treasury Note auction went pretty well but not as good as Wednesdays 5-year Note sale. We did see bonds improve during afternoon trading yesterday, but I don?t believe that this was a result of the auction. The move was enough for some lenders to revise rates lower intraday, so whether or not you see a slight improvement in rates this morning depends if your lender made that move yesterday afternoon or opted to wait for todays open to reflect it.

The first of this mornings two pieces of economic data was the revised 1st quarter GDP reading at 8:30 AM ET. It showed that the economy grew at an annual rate of 0.8% during the first three months of the year. This was an upward revision from the previous estimate of 0.5% but slightly softer than the 0.9% that was expected. The higher rate of economic growth is technically bad news for bonds. However, since the increase came as no surprise and was actually a little lighter than forecasts, we can consider this data neutral towards mortgage rates.

The final report of the week came from the University of Michigan just before 10:00 AM ET when they posted their revised Index of Consumer Sentiment for May. It came in at 94.7, falling a little short of expectations and declining from the preliminary reading of 95.8. This indicates that surveyed consumers were slightly less optimistic about their own financial situations than they were at the last survey. That makes the data good news for bonds and mortgage rates because waning confidence usually translates into weaker levels of consumer spending that limits overall economic growth.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen does speak today when she receives an award at Harvard University, but I don?t believe she will say anything that will move the markets. This is scheduled to take place at 1:15 PM ET, so any reaction will come around then. It is also worth noting that the bond market will close at 2:00 PM ET today ahead of Monday?s Memorial Day holiday. The stock markets will be open a full day today but closed Monday with all markets reopening Tuesday for regular trading hours.

Next week brings us the release of a handful or economic reports, but a couple of them are highly influential to mortgage rates. Tuesday does have data, but not one of these key reports. Look for details on next weeks calendar in Sunday evenings weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Tuesday?s bond market has opened in negative territory following mixed economic news. The stock markets are starting the holiday-shortened week fairly calm with the Dow down 1 point and the Nasdaq up 15 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32 (1.87%), which should push this morning?s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point if comparing to Friday?s morning pricing. The bond market closed early Friday and was closed yesterday in observance of the Memorial Day holiday.

This morning had two pieces of economic data that are relevant to mortgage rates. The first was April's Personal Income and Outlays data at 8:30 AM ET. It revealed a 0.4% increase in income and a 1.0% jump in spending. The income reading matched forecasts but the spending exceeded already strong projections, meaning consumers spent more than thought. That makes the data bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because consumer spending makes up a significant portion of the U.S. economy and bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions.

Also posted this morning but at 10:00 AM ET was May?s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). The Conference Board announced a reading of 92.6 that fell well short of the 96.2 that was predicted. It was also a decline from April?s revised reading of 94.7. The decline indicates that surveyed consumers were less optimistic about their own financial situations than they were last month. Since waning confidence usually means weaker levels of consumer spending, we should consider the data favorable for mortgage rates. This news did help improve bonds since early morning trading lows, but the report does not carry the importance to erase today?s negative tone in the bond market.

Tomorrow is likely going to be another active day for rates with three reports being posted. The ADP Employment report is first, set for release before the markets open. It has the potential to cause some movement in the markets if it shows much stronger or weaker numbers than expected. This report tracks changes in private-sector jobs of ADP's clients that use them for payroll processing. While it does draw attention, it is my opinion that it is overrated and is not a true reflection of the broader employment picture. It also is not very accurate in predicting results of the monthly government report that follows a couple days later. Still, because we sometimes see a reaction to the report, we should be watching it. Analysts are expecting it to show that 180,000 new payrolls were added. The lower the number of jobs, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

Next up, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will post their manufacturing index at 10:00 AM ET. This release is highly important and measures manufacturer sentiment about current business conditions. One reason why it is considered so important is the fact that it is the first piece of economic data posted every month that covers the preceding month. In other words, it is the first look into the previous month's economic conditions. That differs from many reports that aren't released until mid or late month. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed manufacturing executives felt that business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened. Analysts are expecting to see a 50.4 reading in this month's release, meaning that sentiment slipped from April?s 50.8. A smaller reading will be good news for the bond market and mortgage shoppers while a larger than expected increase could contribute to higher mortgage rates tomorrow.

Tomorrow's other relevant report is the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, which is named simply after the color of its cover. This report details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by Federal Reserve region. It is relied upon heavily by the Fed to determine monetary policy during their FOMC meetings. If it shows surprisingly softer economic activity since the last report, the bond market may thrive and mortgage rates could drop shortly after the 2:00 PM ET release. If it reveals signs of inflation growing or rapidly expanding economic activity in many regions, we could see mortgage rates revise higher tomorrow afternoon.

Overall, despite today?s move and all the data coming tomorrow, Friday is still the key day of the week with regards to mortgage rate movement. However, tomorrow could also be a pretty active day for mortgage pricing also. Thursday will probably be the lightest day unless something totally unexpected happens with stocks. We have some key data being posted this week. Therefore, it would be prudent to continue to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Wednesday?s bond market has opened in positive territory despite stronger than expected economic news. The stock markets are helping the cause with losses of 71 points in the Dow and 8 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 12/32 (1.80%), which should improve this morning?s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Today has only two reports being posted after the ADP Employment report was pushed to tomorrow. That left the Institute for Supply Management?s (ISM) manufacturing index as this morning?s only release. They announced late this morning that the index stood at 51.3, exceeding forecasts of 50.4. This was also an increase from April?s 50.8, indicating that manufacturer sentiment about business conditions strengthened last month, not softened. Therefore, the data is technically negative for bonds and mortgage rates. Although, one wouldn?t be able to tell from this morning?s bond strength.

Later today we will get the Federal Reserve's Beige Book that details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by Federal Reserve region. It is relied upon heavily by the Fed to determine monetary policy during their FOMC meetings. If it shows surprisingly softer economic activity since the last report, the bond market may thrive and mortgage rates could drop shortly after the 2:00 PM ET release. If it reveals signs of inflation growing or rapidly expanding economic activity in many regions, we could see mortgage rates revise higher this afternoon.

Tomorrow now has two employment-related reports coming during early morning hours. The first, set for release before the markets open, is ADP?s employment report that has the potential to cause some movement in the markets if it shows much stronger or weaker numbers than expected. This report tracks changes in private-sector jobs of ADP's clients that use them for payroll processing. While it does draw attention, it is my opinion that it is overrated and is not a true reflection of the broader employment picture. Still, because we sometimes see a reaction to the report, we should be watching it. Analysts are expecting it to show that 180,000 new payrolls were added. The lower the number of jobs, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

Last week?s unemployment figures will be tomorrow?s second release, scheduled to be posted at 8:30 AM ET. They are expected to show that 268,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This would be unchanged from the previous week?s initial filings. The larger the number of new claims, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates because rising claims hint at a softening employment sector. However, because this is only a weekly snapshot, it usually requires a large variance from forecasts for it to directly influence mortgage pricing.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Thursdays bond market has opened in positive territory, nearly erasing losses from yesterday afternoon. The major stock indexes are showing minor losses with the Dow down 53 points and the Nasdaq down 10 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32 (1.81%), but due to selling during late trading yesterday we will likely see little change in this mornings mortgage pricing. If there is a difference between todays rates and Wednesdays early rates it most likely is a slight increase.

Yesterday afternoons Fed Beige Book release showed that the economy grew at a modest pace throughout the Fed regions since mid-April. The labor market tightened, causing wages to move higher. That made the report slightly negative for the bond and mortgage markets, although the news was not a significant surprise. We did see some lenders increase rates after the report was released, so if your lender is in that group you may see a slight improvement in this mornings pricing.

ADPs Employment report for May was posted at 8:15 AM ET today. It showed that 173,000 private-sector jobs were added last month, falling a little short of the 180,000 that was expected. It is worth noting that an upward revision of 10,000 to Aprils number makes Mays number a little better news. This is because analysts were expecting to see an increase of 24,000 jobs (April?s 156k to 180k in May). However, the revised number of 166,000 for April means that we saw an increase of only 7,000 new jobs. That softer than expected increase makes the data favorable for mortgage rates.

Last weeks unemployment figures were posted at 8:30 AM ET. They showed that 267,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was very close to the previous weeks 268,000, hinting that the employment sector neither strengthened nor weakened last week. Therefore, we can consider the news neutral for bonds and mortgage pricing.

Tomorrow morning has two reports set for release, including one of the biggest reports we regularly see. That will come from the Labor Department, who will post Mays Employment data at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow morning. It will give us key employment readings such as the U.S. unemployment rate and the number of jobs added or lost during the month. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate fall to 4.9% in May from 5.0% in April with approximately 155,000 jobs added to the economy during the month. A higher than expected unemployment rate and a much smaller number than 157,000 would be great news for the bond market. It would probably create a sizable rally in bonds, leading to lower mortgage rates tomorrow. However, stronger than expected numbers will make a Fed rate hike more likely this month and should cause a spike in mortgage rates.

The final release of the week will come from the Commerce Department at 10:00 AM tomorrow. They will post Aprils Factory Orders report that is similar to last weeks Durable Goods Orders release, but also includes orders for non-durable goods. It can cause some movement in the financial markets if it varies from forecasts by a wide margin, but it isn't expected to cause much of a change in rates this month because it follows the almighty Employment report. Current forecasts are calling for a 1.6% jump in new orders from March's level.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Fridays bond market has opened in positive territory following much weaker than expected employment data. The stock markets are reacting negatively to the data, pushing the Dow lower by 134 points and the Nasdaq down 56 points. The bond market is currently up 26/32 (1.71%), which should improve this morning?s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

This mornings big news was Mays Employment report at 8:30 AM ET. It showed that the U.S. unemployment rate fell 0.3% to 4.7% when 4.9% was expected. That appears to be a negative reading for bonds but the decline is being attributed to people dropping out of the workforce and not looking for employment. That, and the next headline number, neutralized any impact this decline would have had on the markets.

The good news came in the payroll number that fell drastically short of forecasts. Todays report revealed an increase of only 38,000 jobs and also lowered April and Marchs total by 59,000. The 38,000 is the smallest monthly increase in jobs since September 2010. Because market participants were expecting to see 155,000 new payrolls, May?s number indicates a much softer employment sector than many had thought. The news also seriously undermines the theory that the Fed will raise key short-term interest rates at their FOMC meeting later this month. It is likely now that the Fed will wait at least for another employment report to come before adjusting rates upward to make sure the sector is not crumbling.

Aprils Factory Orders data was released late this morning, revealing a 1.9% jump in new orders for durable and non-durable products. This was a little stronger than the 1.6% that was expected and a sizable increase of .6% to March?s orders shows the manufacturing sector was stronger than predicted. However, this morning?s employment data carries much more significance and made this report a non-factor in today?s mortgage pricing.

Next week has little in terms of economic data for the markets to digest but does include two Treasury auctions than be influential. None of the events are scheduled for Monday, so we can expect weekend news and possibly this afternoon?s trading to set the tone for Monday?s session. Look for details on next week?s events in Sunday evening?s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Mondays bond market has opened in negative territory, giving back some of Fridays post-Employment report gains. The stock markets are starting the week with noticeable gains of 96 points in the Dow and 18 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 9/32 (1.73%), which should push this mornings mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point from Fridays morning pricing.

Today has no relevant economic data scheduled but does have a couple of public events by Fed Chair Janet Yellen at 12:30 and 2:00 PM ET. As usual, her words will be watched closely for any indication about the Feds next move and if it will come at this months FOMC meeting. However, the topics of these two events isn?t likely to bring too much insight about whether or not the Fed will raise rates at the next meeting.

The rest of the week has only two pieces of economic data that are relevant to mortgage rates in addition to two Treasury auctions that can also be influential. Neither of the economic reports is considered to be highly important, so they should not create too much volatility regardless of their results.

Revised 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data will be the first, coming early tomorrow morning. This data measures employee output and employer costs for wages and benefits. It is considered to be a measurement of wage inflation. Many analysts believe that the economy can grow with low inflationary pressures when productivity is high. Last month's preliminary reading revealed a 1.0% decline in productivity and a 4.1% increase in labor costs. Tomorrows update is predicted to show that productivity fell at a 0.6% annual rate while labor costs rose 4.0%. I don't think this piece of data will have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from expectations and the stocks are calm.

Overall, it is difficult to label one particular day as the most important for mortgage rates due to the lack of anything significant on the calendar. The same can be said for least important day. Wednesdays 10-year Treasury auction could end up being the most influential event, assuming that Fed Chair Yellens words don?t surprise us and the major stock indexes remain fairly calm. While there isn?t much to be concerned about this week, we still should proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate as the markets can get active at any time.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Tuesday?s bond market has opened in positive territory following some uneventful economic news. Stocks are also in positive ground with the Dow up 72 points and the Nasdaq up 3 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32 (1.71%), which may improve this morning?s mortgage rates slightly.

Today?s only economic data was revised 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data at 8:30 AM ET. It showed a 0.6% decline in worker productivity, matching forecasts. This was an upward revision from the preliminary estimate of a 1.0% drop in output, meaning employees were slightly more productive per hour than previously thought. That is technically favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, this is not considered to be a highly important report and it matched expectations, so has had no influence on this morning?s mortgage rates. The labor costs rose more than previously thought, but it wasn?t enough of a variance to draw much attention.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release tomorrow, but we do have the first of this week?s two relevant Treasury auctions. 10-year Treasury Notes will be sold tomorrow while 30-year Bonds will be sold Thursday. Results of both auctions will be posted at 1:00 PM ET on the sale days. If investor demand was high for these securities, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading. However, weak interest in these sales could lead to bond selling and an increase in mortgage rates. It is common to see some pressure in bonds right before these sales as investors prepare for them, but as long as the sales are not weak those pre-auction losses are usually recovered once they are completed.

The rest of the week has little scheduled that is expected to affect mortgage pricing. Unless stocks make a big move upward or downward, I would not be surprised to see mortgage rates remain flat the next couple of days.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Boschma]

I've been quoted 3.375% on a $210k loan.....is that a good rate. I've never bought a house before. I know there's a lot of variables....just curious if people get much better than that.

 

[Tamalewagon]

I've been quoted 3.375% on a $210k loan.....is that a good rate. I've never bought a house before. I know there's a lot of variables....just curious if people get much better than that.

That's a solid rate if you are not paying any points. :thumbsup

 

[Raffit78]

I've been quoted 3.375% on a $210k loan.....is that a good rate. I've never bought a house before. I know there's a lot of variables....just curious if people get much better than that.

Is that a 15 yr loan?

 

[Tamalewagon]

Wednesday?s bond market has opened in positive territory despite stocks being mixed and no relevant economic news to drive trading. The major stock indexes are relatively calm with the Dow up 32 points and the Nasdaq down 2 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32 (1.70%), which should keep this morning?s mortgage rates at yesterday?s levels.

There are no economic releases scheduled today that are expected to influence mortgage rates. With stocks mixed, we are not seeing them be a factor in this morning?s trading either. If they make a noticeable move upward or downward, we may see bonds react accordingly. However, I suspect we won?t see much of a move in bonds until today?s auction results are posted this afternoon.

10-year Treasury Notes are going to sale today, followed by 30-year Bonds tomorrow. Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. If investor demand was high for these securities, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading. However, weak interest in these sales could lead to bond selling and an increase in mortgage rates. If there is a reaction, it will come during early afternoon trading.

Tomorrow?s only data is last week's unemployment update at 8:30 AM ET. It is expected to show that 265,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, down slightly from the previous week?s 267,000 initial claims. This report usually doesn't cause much movement in the markets or mortgage rates unless it shows a significant jump or drop in initial claims for benefits. The higher the number of claims, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Thursday?s bond market has opened in positive territory again even though there is no important economic data on tap today. Stocks are showing losses with the Dow down 53 points and the Nasdaq down 15 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32 (1.66%), but the improvement we see in this morning?s mortgage rates should be less than .125 of a discount point.

Yesterday?s 10-year Treasury Note auction went pretty well with several benchmarks pointing towards a decent level of investor interest. We did not see much of a reaction after results were posted yesterday afternoon. Still, we can be optimistic about today?s 30-year Bond auction. If it also is met with a pretty strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise and mortgage rates revise slightly lower later today. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during afternoon hours.

Today?s only data was last week's unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET. They showed that 264,000 new claims for benefits were filed, slipping from the previous week?s revised total of 268,000 initial filings. This is a sign that the employment sector strengthened just a bit last week, making the data negative for bonds and mortgage rates. Fortunately, this is only a weekly report and the variance from forecasts of 265,000 was not significant. Therefore, we have not seen the news have a negative impact on this morning?s pricing.

The week closes tomorrow with one moderately important report. That will be June's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment just before 10:00 AM ET. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a minor to moderate impact on the financial markets. It is expected to show a reading of 94.3, which would be a slight decline from May's 94.7. A smaller than expected reading would be considered good news for bonds because it would mean that surveyed consumers were less optimistic about their own financial and employment situations than thought. That often means they are less likely to make large purchases in the near future, but since this report is not considered to be highly important, it probably will not influence mortgage rates considerably unless it shows a significant variance from forecasts.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Is that a 15 yr loan?

No that's a 30 year fixed rate. 15 year fixed rates are in the mid 2% range.

 

[Tamalewagon]

Monday?s bond market has opened in positive territory, but not enough to improve mortgage rates. Stocks are starting the week with minor losses of 17 points in the Dow and 6 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is up 4/32 (1.63%), which should keep this morning?s mortgage rates at Friday?s early levels.

There is nothing of importance scheduled for release today. The rest of the week brings us five pieces of economic data though. However, the theme of the week will be Fed-related with an FOMC meeting, economic forecasts and a press conference with Fed Chair Janet Yellen mid-week. With this much important data and these Fed events coming over four days, there is little doubt that the next several days will be active for the financial and mortgage markets.

Tomorrow starts the week?s calendar when the Commerce Department posts May's Retail Sales data at 8:30 AM ET. This report gives us a very important measurement of consumer spending, which is closely watched by bond traders because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Analysts are expecting to see that retail-level sales rose 0.3% last month. A decline in sales, signaling a slowing economy, would be great news for the bond market and could lead to lower mortgage rates tomorrow morning. On the other hand, a stronger level of sales will likely create bond weakness and an increase in rates.

The week?s most important day is Wednesday without a doubt due to two morning reports and an afternoon filled with important Fed events, but we could see noticeable movement in rates tomorrow and Thursday also. The calmest day will probably be Friday. I would not be surprised to see intraday revisions to mortgage rates multiple days, but it?s a safe bet to happen at least on Wednesday. This is certainly a week that you should maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[MSum661]

What do you think the 10 Yr. T. rate might do the next 60-90 days out? In know its out there a ways but any thought on a trend one way or another?

 

[Tamalewagon]

What do you think the 10 Yr. T. rate might do the next 60-90 days out? In know its out there a ways but any thought on a trend one way or another?

The FED is forecast to raise their rate by September. Bonds are mortgage rates are quick to react to their changes.

 

[Tamalewagon]

Wednesday?s bond market has opened relatively flat following mixed economic data. Today?s Fed events are also likely contributing to the calm open in the bond market as investors await their results. The major stock indexes are showing minor gains of 43 points in the Dow and 10 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (1.60%), which should keep this morning?s mortgage rates at Tuesday?s morning levels.

The first of this morning?s two economic reports was May's Producer Price Index (PPI) at 8:30 AM ET. It showed a 0.4% increase in the overall reading and a 0.3% rise in the more important core data. Both readings exceeded expectations of up 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. That means inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy were stronger than many had thought. This is bad news for bonds because rising inflation devalues a bond?s future fixed interest payments and also makes it easier for the Fed to raise key interest rates.

May's Industrial Production data was posted at 9:15 AM ET, revealing a 0.4% decline from April. Since analysts were expecting to see only a 0.1% drop we can consider this favorable news as it points towards a weakening manufacturing sector. However, this is not considered to be an important release, so its impact on today?s trading has been minimal.

There are three events taking place this afternoon that have the potential to cause a great deal of volatility in the financial and mortgage markets. First up is the 2:00 PM adjournment of the FOMC meeting. This is when Fed Chair Yellen and company will give us their decision whether or not to increase key short-term interest rates. The general consensus is that they will not act yet, waiting to see if Britain decides to leave the Euro and what this month?s Employment report shows. The recent weak employment numbers led to many market participants changing their timeline of the Fed?s rate hikes, pushing their predictions for the next increase to the following meeting in July at the earliest. However, even if no change is made at this meeting, all eyes will be watching the post-meeting statement for any hints of when they will make a move. If there are any surprises, look for an immediate reaction in the markets and mortgage pricing.

Also at 2:00 PM ET, the Fed will release their updated estimates for future economic activity. They will post their predictions on GDP growth, unemployment and inflation. These could be a market mover if they show even minor revisions to any of the key headline economic numbers. The larger the change, the more likely the markets will react. Revisions that point toward slower economic growth would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates as it would mean the Fed will probably make that rate increase later than sooner.

Then we have a press conference hosted by the Fed Chair at 2:30 PM ET. These press conferences with the media often lead to significant afternoon volatility in the markets and mortgage rates. Any surprises will probably cause a noticeable reaction in the markets. That means there is a high probability of seeing afternoon changes to mortgage rates.

Look for an update to this report shortly after the markets have had an opportunity to react to this afternoon?s activities.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Thursday?s bond market has opened well in positive territory with stocks showing sizable losses and favorable results coming from this morning?s economic data. The Dow is currently down 130 points while the Nasdaq has lost 42 points. The bond market is currently up 13/32 (1.53%). However, it is worth noting that the recent rally in Treasury yields has not moved mortgage rates much at all. Yesterday?s post-FOMC gains combined with this morning?s bond rally has only yielded an improvement of .125 of a discount point in mortgage rates if comparing to Wednesday?s morning pricing.

The first of this morning?s two early relevant economic reports was May's Consumer Price Index (CPI). It came in with a 0.2% increase in both the overall and more important core readings. The overall was slightly better than forecasts of a 0.3% rise, but the core reading pegged expectations. The readings indicate that inflation remains subdued, making the data slightly positive for bonds and mortgage pricing.

Last week?s unemployment figures were also posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning. They showed 277,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, up noticeably from the previous week?s 264,000 initial filings. Analysts were expecting to see a smaller increase (269,000), meaning the employment sector appears to have been softer last week than many had thought. That also is good news for bonds, but since this only a weekly report, it has had a small impact on this morning?s trading.

The week closes tomorrow with a relatively minor release 8:30 AM ET. May's Housing Starts, that track groundbreakings of new home projects, is one of the month's least important reports and likely will not affect mortgage rates unless its results vary greatly from forecasts. It is expected to show that starts of new homes fell last month, indicating softness in the housing sector. That is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because a weakening housing sector makes broader economic growth less likely. However, this data is not important enough to cause a noticeable change in mortgage rates unless there is a wide variance between forecasts and the actual results.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[Tamalewagon]

Fridays bond market has opened in negative territory despite early stock weakness. The Dow is currently down 44 points and the Nasdaq has lost 28 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32 (1.60%), which should push this mornings mortgage rates higher by a little less than .125 of a discount point over Thursdays morning pricing.

Mays Housing Starts was todays only relevant economic data. It showed that new home groundbreakings fell 0.3% last month. This was a smaller decline than was expected, although a downward revision to Aprils starts are skewing Mays variance from forecasts. The fact they were weaker than April is technically good for bonds and mortgage rates as it points towards a softer new home portion of the housing sector. However, since starts were stronger than analysts were expecting, we have to label the report as bad news for mortgage pricing.

Next week also has a lot going on that can affect mortgage rates. On the calendar is a handful of economic reports, although only one can be considered highly important. In addition to that data are two Treasury auctions that have the potential to influence bond trading and two days of semi-annual congressional testimony by Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

There is nothing set for release or to take place Monday that we need to be concerned with. The first item on the calendar comes Tuesday but is the most important of the entire week. That will be day one of the Feds economic and monetary policy update to Congress. Look for details on it and the rest of the weeks events in Sunday evenings weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

 

[rivermobster]

Fridays bond market has opened in negative territory despite early stock weakness. The Dow is currently down 44 points and the Nasdaq has lost 28 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32 (1.60%), which should push this mornings mortgage rates higher by a little less than .125 of a discount point over Thursdays morning pricing.

Mays Housing Starts was todays only relevant economic data. It showed that new home groundbreakings fell 0.3% last month. This was a smaller decline than was expected, although a downward revision to Aprils starts are skewing Mays variance from forecasts. The fact they were weaker than April is technically good for bonds and mortgage rates as it points towards a softer new home portion of the housing sector. However, since starts were stronger than analysts were expecting, we have to label the report as bad news for mortgage pricing.

Next week also has a lot going on that can affect mortgage rates. On the calendar is a handful of economic reports, although only one can be considered highly important. In addition to that data are two Treasury auctions that have the potential to influence bond trading and two days of semi-annual congressional testimony by Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

There is nothing set for release or to take place Monday that we need to be concerned with. The first item on the calendar comes Tuesday but is the most important of the entire week. That will be day one of the Feds economic and monetary policy update to Congress. Look for details on it and the rest of the weeks events in Sunday evenings weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

I'm going to go look at that house with my fried and her realtor tomorrow around 5ish. I need to check out the pool equipment and all that sorta stuff. One of them will be in touch with you soon after. :thumbsup