Mortgage Market Update/Purchase and Refinance Mortgage info

Tamalewagon · Feb 9, 2016

sirbob said:
So this is on Friday - three days ago. The Professionals in this market see the outlook as a must lock now situation.

And this is the very next business day - 1 business day later !! Seriously they can't see any further ahead than 1 business day? It didn't say it might be better in a month or two - it said basically, no matter what if you plan to get a mortgage anytime soon LOCK NOW ITS ONLY GETTING WORSE!

I'm not saying that you said that - I get your just cutting and pasting the daily update, it just underlines why Wall Street can't be trusted to do anything but push people to do things that makes Wall Street money.

carry on...

What the author is doing is taking the morning information and the reports that are due out in the days and/or week ahead and giving his best recommendations. Our crystal balls aren't as reliable as they used to be. I actually read that the article was stating "we may have hit the bottom of the dip so take advantage while you can". As I mentioned in the original post, I have not seen the author recommend to place a lock over 60 days in quite some time. This year the markets are predicted to fluctuate a great deal. The idea is to lock when we have dips in the rates and today there was a great dip in the rates. That is my best interpretation of what the author is trying to convey. I agree with you with respect to Wall Street serving their own self interest and agenda. They always have an ulterior motive for their actions. My job obviously is to be the conduit to the best rates available. Luckily I do not have the overhead expenses that banks and direct lenders have so 99.9% of the time, I can beat their pricing. I post the Lock Advisory and rates to arm the members of RDP in California the best information on a given day that I either interpret or copy/paste from another website to take advantage (or possibly wait a day or two) of the low rates if the need arises.

Tamalewagon · Feb 9, 2016

Tuesdays bond market has opened in positive territory with stocks in negative ground again. The major stock indexes bounced and closed well off of their lows of the day yesterday, giving some hope in the market that today would be a positive day. At the moment that does not look like it will be the case as the Dow is currently down 108 points while the Nasdaq has lost another 27 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32 (1.72%), which may improve this mornings mortgage rates slightly if comparing to yesterday?s early pricing.

Today has no relevant economic data set for release and neither does tomorrow. If we see a change in rates intraday today, it will probably be a result of stock movement. If the major stock indexes extend this mornings losses, bonds could improve enough to cause a downward rate revision. On the other hand, if stocks rebound again, bonds could see pressure, leading to an upward revision to mortgage pricing later today.

Tomorrow does have two events we will be watching closely though. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will deliver the Feds semi-annual testimony on the status of the economy late tomorrow and Thursday mornings. She will be speaking to the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow and the Senate Banking Committee Thursday. Market participants will follow her words very closely. The Fed is required to deliver this testimony twice a year, which is considered to be of extreme importance to the financial markets. We almost always see the markets move as a result of what is said during this testimony. Look for her to address our employment situation, inflation, stock volatility and global financial issues and their impact on the economy. Her testimony begins at 10:00 AM ET with a prepared statement which is then followed by Q & A with committee members. Her prepared words are expected to be released prior to her appearance, so we could see a reaction early tomorrow morning. I am expecting to see the markets fluctuate, likely affecting mortgage rates also. The first day of testimony usually causes the most volatility because the prepared statement made by the Chairman on the second day often differs little from that of the first day.

Also tomorrow is the first of two important Treasury auctions that can have an impact on mortgage rates. 10-year Notes will be sold tomorrow and 30-year Bonds will be auctioned Thursday. The 10-year sale is the more important of the two as it will give us an indication for demand of mortgage-related securities. If the sales are met with a strong demand from investors, we should see the bond market move higher during afternoon trading those days. But a lackluster interest from buyers, particularly international investors, would indicate a waning appetite for longer-term U.S. securities and lead to broader bond selling. The selling in bonds would result in upward afternoon revisions to mortgage rates. Results are posted at 1:00 PM Et auction days, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Feb 9, 2016

by: Matthew Graham

MBS Day Ahead: This Road Leads to New All-Time Low Rates
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Feb 9 2016, 7:34AM

"It's the middle of the night on February 8-9th 2016, and 10yr yields are trading in the mid 1's."

That's not a phrase many people thought they'd be able to say if you'd asked them about it even a month ago. But in many ways, the writing was on the wall as early as last summer. At least, it's easy to say the writing was on the wall in hindsight.

Back then it was just the proverbial "bullish scenario" for bond markets--that special combination of events where everything lined up just right for maximum bond market benefit. I've drifted into that hypothesis-laden trance on a few occasions. I'm going to do it again right now, but more to revisit the bullish scenario dreams. This might look prescient in retrospect, but I want to emphasize that I write a lot of stuff, and I have articles that we could revisit for almost any eventuality (point being: there are no gurus. This is just a look back at one of the musings that turned out to be on target in retrospect):

"Higher Rate Rhetoric Beginning to Unravel." From August 2015, referencing a mid-July train of thought. Click the link and read it if you have time.

With the help of the brilliant minds on the MBS Live dashboard, this thesis grew to be our collective baseline the longer rates remained resilient into the end of 2015. Personally, I figured we'd have a little blip higher in rates before a bigger push down toward current levels. I thought that things like the decent employment data would trick markets into thinking things would be OK even though the Fed just hiked, and some green shoots of economic optimism would take hold.

Instead, markets have wasted no time freaking out in 2016. To put the freakout into a visual context that most people can relate to, here's a long term chart of the best stock index for a big picture assessment of "stocks"--the S&P. It shows these so-called "economic cycles" that we began talking about in mid 2015.

2016-2-8 Interwebs!

I'm not joking when I say that the 90's was about the internet. Think about the role the internet played in your life prior to the mid 90's. It was more of a novelty until then, and the exponential market growth from the mid 90's on goes hand in hand with the tech boom/bubble. Everyone was really excited about the internet, and it showed.

Who knows if the "housing" circle was more about housing or if it was simply the fact that the tech bubble correction had run its course? Certainly there were contributions from both of those factors. Either way, we found ourselves living through the financial crisis and embarking on the next big cycle. This time around there hasn't been any organic economic motivation so much as there has been a crapload of free money dumped from central bank's helicopters the world over. The wealth creation puts the past cycles to shame. Don't worry if you haven't seen things exactly that way, because it's largely been about strengthening the strongest hands, not to mention that half of the wealth creation was merely an attempt to numb the amputation site of all the wealth that was lopped off during the crisis.

All that is beside the point though. The point is that QE isn't a long-term, organic set of muscles that's capable of turning the crank of global economic growth. Such muscles are nowhere to be found, and the Fed doesn't want to live the lie anymore. Markets are increasingly pricing-in that grim reality.

There could be corrections along the way--possibly even big enough to scare some sense into floaters, but until we see strong evidence to the contrary, utter and complete global economic meltdown is the baseline. The road we're on leads to new all-time low rates.

Tamalewagon · Feb 10, 2016

Wednesdays bond market has opened in negative territory. The stock markets are showing gains of 70 points in the Dow and 58 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 4/32 (1.74%), which should push this morning?s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

There are two events taking place today that are likely to influence mortgage rates. The first is in progress now. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is speaking before the House Financial Services Committee this morning in day one of her two-day semi-annual congressional update on the economy and monetary policy. In short she states that our economy is expected to continue to grow but the potential hurdles to doing so are stronger. Things like oil prices and stock losses along with global economic conditions, particularly in China, could make it more difficult for our growth to stay on track. None of these points came as much of a surprise. Bonds were negative before her prepared statement was released and remain near those same levels now.

She is currently in the Q&A part of the proceeding with committee members. This will be repeated tomorrow with the Senate Banking Committee, but day two usually does not yield anything noticeably different than the first day.

Later today, we have the results of the 10-year Treasury Note auction to digest. This is the first of two important Treasury auctions that can have an impact on mortgage rates this week. 30-year Bonds will be auctioned tomorrow. Todays sale is the more important of the two as it will give us an indication for demand of mortgage-related securities. If these sales are met with a strong demand from investors, we should see the bond market move higher during afternoon trading sessions. But a lackluster interest from buyers, particularly international investors, would indicate a waning appetite for longer-term U.S. securities and lead to broader bond selling. The selling in bonds would result in upward afternoon revisions to mortgage rates. Results are posted at 1:00 PM ET each day, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading.

Last weeks unemployment figures is tomorrows only economic news. They will be released at 8:30 AM ET and are expected to show that 280,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, up from the previous week?s total of 277,000. Rising initial claims are a sign of employment sector weakness, so the larger the number of claims, the better the news it is for mortgage rates. Although, because this is only a weekly reading we usually need to see a significant variance from forecasts for it to impact mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Feb 10, 2016

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/565519.aspx

www.scottwenhe.com for rates. Call for exact scenario or fill out an online application. Click on "get started" in the left column.

Tamalewagon · Feb 11, 2016

Thursdays bond market has opened well in positive territory as overnight gains extend into this mornings trading. Stocks are continuing their slide with the Dow down 222 points and the Nasdaq down 39 points. The bond market is currently up 22/32 (1.61%), which with strength late yesterday should improve this morning?s mortgage rates by approximately .375 of a discount point if comparing to Wednesdays morning pricing.

Yesterdays relatively important 10-year Treasury auction went pretty well. Bonds improved during afternoon trading, but I don?t believe this sale played too much of a role in that move. It does however, help us to be optimistic about todays 30-year Bond auction. If demand for these securities is strong, we could see bonds extend this mornings gains later today. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading.

So what is fueling this unexpected bond rally? It appears to be concerns over the global economy with oil prices as a strong base. There is good news in this and also some caution. The caution is the fact that whenever we see a significant and rapid improvement in bond yields and mortgage rates like the current, they often unwind or reverse extremely fast when the cause of the rally eases. The good news is that while a partial reversal or profit-taking move is still expected, the reason for this particular bond rally may not go away anytime soon. In other words, while we should be expecting a bounce of some type in bond yields (and rates), we still should see the 10-year Treasury Note yield remain below 2.00% for the immediate future. Since mortgage rates tend to track bond yields, this should bode well for mortgage shoppers. I remain cautious towards floating a rate at the present moment though simply because profit-taking should be kicking in soon that could cause a bump in rates. Remaining cautious until the bond market stabilizes would be prudent.

Todays only economic data was last weeks unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET. They showed that 269,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, down from the previous weeks total of 285,000 initial claims. Declining claims is actually a bad sign for bonds and mortgage rates because it points towards a strengthening employment sector. Fortunately though, this is just a weekly report that has not had much of an impact on todays trading.

Day two of the Feds congressional testimony hasnt brought any surprises that are worth mentioning. Chair Yellen is speaking to the senate Banking Committee today after yesterdays House Financial Services committee appearance. If we get a surprise comment it will come during the Q&A portion of the proceeding, but I dont believe this event will affect mortgage rates any further.

Both of this weeks monthly economic reports will be released tomorrow morning. The first is one of the more important ones we get each month. The Commerce Department will post Januarys Retail Sales data at 8:30 AM ET. This report is very important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched quite closely. If Fridays report reveals weaker than expected retail-level sales, the bond market should thrive and mortgage rates will fall since it would be a sign that the economy is not as strong as many had thought. However, a stronger reading than the 0.2% increase that is expected could lead to higher mortgage rates.

Februarys preliminary reading to the University of Michigans Index of Consumer Sentiment will be released just before 10:00 AM tomorrow. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets. If it shows an increase in consumer confidence, the stock markets may move higher and bond prices could fall. It is currently expected to come in at 92.7, down from January's final reading of 93.3. That would indicate consumers were a little less optimistic about their own financial situations than last month and are less likely to make large a purchase in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, this would be considered slightly positive news for bonds and mortgage pricing. Ideally, we would prefer to see a large decline in confidence.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Feb 11, 2016

Rates are EXTREMELY low today. :thumbsup

www.scottwenhe.com

Tamalewagon · Feb 16, 2016

Tuesdays bond market has opened in negative territory with stocks showing early strength following the long weekend. The Dow is currently up 93 points while the Nasdaq is up 61 points. The bond market is currently down 7/32 (1.77%), which should push this mornings mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point over Friday?s morning pricing.

There is nothing of importance scheduled for release today. The rest of the week brings us the release of five pieces of economic data along with the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting. The markets were closed yesterday in observance of the Presidents Day holiday, but weakness after pricing was posted Friday is contributing to this morning?s increase in rates.

Tomorrow is going to be an active day with four things set for release that may influence mortgage rates. They start when the Labor Department releases their Producer Price Index (PPI) for January at 8:30 AM ET. It measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy and is considered to be one of the key measures of inflation we see each month. There are two portions of the report that analysts watch- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core data is more important to market participants because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. It is expected to show a decline of 0.2% in the overall reading and no change in the core data. Good news for bonds would be a decline in both readings, particularly the core data as it would ease concerns about future inflation that make long-term securities less attractive to investors.

Next up is Januarys Housing Stats, also set to be posted early tomorrow morning. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking new housing construction starts. It usually does not affect rates unless the results vary greatly from forecasts. Current forecasts are calling for a rise in construction starts of new housing. That would be negative news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it would point towards economic gains. A weak housing sector makes broader economic growth less likely in the near future, which makes bonds more attractive to investors. Therefore, the smaller the number of starts, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

They will be followed by Januarys Industrial Production report at 9:15 AM ET. It helps us measure manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities and can have a moderate impact on the financial markets. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.3% increase in production from December to January. A decline in output would be good news and should push bond prices higher, helping to lower mortgage rates tomorrow.

Tomorrow also brings us the release of the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting. Traders will be looking for any indication of the Feds next move regarding monetary policy, particularly when the next rate increase may come. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, therefore, any reaction will come during afternoon trading. These minutes may lead to afternoon volatility tomorrow, or they may be a non-factor. However, they do carry the potential to influence mortgage rates so they should be watched.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Feb 16, 2016

Lower than credit union pricing. www.scottwenhe.com

Tamalewagon · Feb 17, 2016

Wednesdays bond market has opened in negative territory following mostly unfavorable economic news. Stocks are helping to pressure bonds with the Dow up 177 points and the Nasdaq up 53 points. The bond market is currently down 15/32 (1.82%), which should push this morning?s mortgage rates slightly higher than yesterday?s morning pricing.

The first of todays three economic reports was Januarys Producer Price Index (PPI) at 8:30 AM ET. It showed the overall reading with a 0.1% increase when analysts were expecting to see 0.2% decline. The more important core data that excludes more volatile food and energy costs showed similar results with a 0.4% increase, exceeding expectations of no change from Decembers level. These readings indicate that inflationary pressures were stronger at the producer level of the economy than many had thought, making the data bad news for inflation-sensitive securities such as mortgage-related bonds.

Januarys Housing Starts report was also released at 8:30 AM, revealing a 3.8% decline in new home groundbreakings last month. This was well off of forecasts that were calling for an increase in new home starts. The decline is a sign of weakness in the new home portion of the housing sector. This allows us to consider the data good news for bonds and mortgage rates. Unfortunately, this report is not considered highly important, so its impact on todays trading and rates has been minimal.

The final piece of economic data for the day was Januarys Industrial Production report at 9:15 AM ET. This report tracks output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities, giving us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength. Todays release showed a 0.9% jump in output, exceeding forecasts of a 0.3% rise. That is also bad news for bonds and mortgage pricing because it hints that manufacturing activity may be rebounding after showing signs of weakness recently.

We also have the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting being posted later today. Traders will be looking for any indication of the Feds next move regarding monetary policy, particularly when the next rate increase may come. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, therefore, any reaction will come during afternoon trading. These minutes may lead to afternoon volatility, or they may be a non-factor. However, they do carry the potential to influence mortgage rates so they should be watched.

Last weeks unemployment figures is tomorrows only data, coming at 8:30 AM ET. They are expected to show that 274,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This would be an increase from the previous weeks 269,000 initial filings. The larger the number of new claims, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates because rising claims hint at a softening employment sector.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Feb 18, 2016

Thursdays bond market has opened in positive territory, due mostly to strength in overseas bond markets. The stock markets are showing fairly modest losses to help the cause with the Dow down 9 points and the Nasdaq down 27 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32 (1.77%), which should improve this mornings mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Yesterdays afternoon release of the FOMC minutes did not show any significant surprises. They did indicate that the Fed is more cautious or concerned about global financial and economic pressures and their impact on our economy. That could help delay the Feds next rate hike if there is not a noticeable improvement by their next meeting in mid-March. The news had little impact on yesterday afternoons mortgage pricing.

Last weeks unemployment figures were posted at 8:30 AM this morning, revealing 262,000 new claims for benefits. This was a decline from the previous weeks 269,000 initial filings and was lower than the 274,000 that was expected. That makes the data negative for mortgage rates because it hints at a strengthening employment sector. However, because this is only a weekly update, the news did not negatively impact this mornings pricing.

Also posted this morning was Januarys Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) that showed a 0.2% decline. That reading means the indicators are predicting slightly softer economic growth over the next several months. While that technically is good news for bonds, it matched forecasts and did not influence this morning?s rates.

Tomorrow has only one report scheduled for release but it is a key inflation reading. At 8:30 AM ET tomorrow, Januarys Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be posted. The CPI measures inflationary pressures at the important consumer level of the economy. With exception to maybe the Employment report, the CPI is the single most important report that we see each month. Its results can have a significant impact on the financial markets, especially on long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds. Inflation isnt exactly a concern currently, but there are many that feel the Feds monetary policy decisions are going to fuel rapid inflation down the road, so analysts still track the readings closely. Current inflation readings will also influence the Feds decisions regarding rate increases. The report is expected to show a 0.1% decline in the overall index and a 0.1% rise in the more important core data that excludes food and energy costs. If we see weaker than expected readings, bond prices should rise and mortgage rates would likely fall tomorrow morning.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Feb 19, 2016

Fridays bond market has opened fairly flat following stronger than expected inflation news. Stock are helping to offset the unfavorable data with the Dow down 98 points and the Nasdaq down 9 points. The bond market is currently down 1/32 (1.74%), but due to strength late yesterday we should see an improvement of approximately .125 of a discount point in this mornings rates if comparing to Thursdays early pricing.

Januarys Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released at 8:30 AM ET this morning. It showed no change in the overall reading and a 0.3% rise in the more important core data that excludes volatile food and energy costs. Both readings were stronger than forecasts of down 0.1% and up 0.1% respectively. This means that inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy were stronger than many had thought. Since inflation erodes the value of a bonds future fixed interest payments and makes it easier for the Fed to raise short-term interest rates, we should consider this news negative for the bond and mortgage markets.

Next week is going to be pretty active in terms of economic releases that carry the potential to affect mortgage rates. There is a large batch of reports scheduled for release in addition to a couple of semi-relevant Treasury auctions mid-week. None of the data is set for Monday, so we can expect weekend news and stock movement to drive bonds and mortgage rates as the week starts. Look for details on next week?s activities in Sunday evenings weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Feb 22, 2016

Mondays bond market has opened in negative territory with stocks in rally mode this morning. The Dow is currently up 195 points while the Nasdaq has gained 65 points. The bond market is currently down 6/32 (1.76%), which should push this mornings mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point over Fridays morning pricing.

There is no relevant economic data set for release today. However, the rest of the week brings us seven economic reports to be concerned with in addition to two potentially relevant Treasury auctions. A couple of the reports are considered to be important to the markets and mortgage rates. With so much scheduled this week that can move rates, there is a strong chance of seeing a pretty active week in the mortgage market.

The first piece of data is Januarys Existing Home Sales report by the National Association of Realtors late tomorrow morning. This data tracks home resales throughout the country, giving us a measurement of housing sector strength. It is expected to show a decline in sales of existing homes, meaning the housing sector softened last month. Ideally, the bond market would like to see a sizable decline in sales because weak housing makes broader economic growth more difficult. Since long-term securities such as mortgage bonds tend to thrive during weaker economic conditions, weak housing numbers would be good news for mortgage rates.

Februarys Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will also be posted at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning. This Conference Board index measures consumer confidence in their personal financial situations, giving us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are feeling good about their own financial and employment situations, they are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the economy, related data is considered important in terms of gauging economic activity. It is expected to show a decline in confidence from the 98.1 reading in January to 97.2 this month. A lower reading would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates since it would indicate consumers are less likely to make a large purchase in the near future than many thought.

Overall, I think Friday is the most important day of the week but Thursday may be pretty active also. The calmest should be today or Wednesday. If floating an interest rate, it would be extremely prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional this week as bond yields (and mortgage rates) could make a noticeable higher if a majority of the data does not show weaker than predicted results.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Feb 23, 2016

WWW.SCOTTWENHE.COM

Tamalewagon · Feb 23, 2016

Tuesdays bond market opened in negative territory but has since moved into positive ground following favorable late morning economic news. The stock markets are showing fairly sizable losses with the Dow down 147 points and the Nasdaq down 53 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32 (1.74%), but due to weakness late yesterday we likely will see little change in this mornings mortgage rates. The rebound during early trading will offset the small increase we were expecting in today?s pricing.

Januarys Existing Home Sales data was posted at 10:00 AM ET this morning. The National Association of Realtors reported that home resales rose slightly last month when analysts were expecting to see a decline. This means the housing sector was a little stronger than many had thought, making the data negative for bonds.

The Conference Board gave us Februarys Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) this morning. They announced a reading of 92.2 that fell well short of the 97.3 that was expected. The weaker reading means surveyed consumers were not nearly as confidant about their personal financial situations than many had predicted. Since waning confidence usually translates into weaker levels of spending and softer economic growth, this is good news for bonds and mortgage rates. It was this report that helped bring bonds from early losses into positive ground.

Januarys New Home Sales report is tomorrows only relevant data. It will be posted at 10:00 AM ET and will give us a measurement of housing sector strength, specifically the new home portion of the sector. This is the least important report of the week, and is the sister report to todays Existing Home Sales data. This report usually do not have a significant impact on bond trading or mortgage rates, so it will take a wide variance from forecasts for it to affect tomorrows mortgage pricing. Tomorrows report is expected to show a decline in sales of newly constructed homes, hinting at weakness in the new home portion of the housing sector. The larger the decline, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates.

Also tomorrow is the first of this weeks two Treasury auctions that may influence bond trading enough to affect mortgage rates. There will be an auction of 5-year Notes tomorrow and 7-year Notes on Thursday. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader afternoon selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions to mortgage rates. However, sales with higher levels of investor demand usually make bonds more attractive to investors and brings additional funds into the bond market. The buying of bonds that follows translates into lower mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Feb 24, 2016

Wednesdays bond market opened in positive territory, extending strength that came late yesterday. Stocks are helping the cause by showing losses of 205 points in the Dow and 58 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 14/32 (1.66%), which should improve this morning?s mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point if comparing to Tuesdays early pricing.

The Commerce Department announced late this morning that sales of newly constructed homes fell 9.2% last month, falling well short of expectations. This data indicates that the new home portion of the housing sector was weaker than many had thought, making the data good news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, this report is not considered to be highly important to the bond market and had a minor impact on this morning?s rate improvement. Bonds appeared to be on their way to a positive morning before this report was posted.

We also have the first of this weeks two Treasury auctions today that may influence bond trading enough to affect mortgage rates. 5-year Notes are being sold today while 7-year Notes go tomorrow. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader afternoon selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions to mortgage rates. However, sales with higher levels of investor demand usually make bonds more attractive to investors and brings additional funds into the bond market. The buying of bonds that follows translates into lower mortgage rates. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading.

Besides the 7-year Note auction tomorrow, there are also two economic reports scheduled for release. One is much more important to the markets than the other. The important monthly report is January's Durable Goods Orders data at 8:30 AM ET. It will give us an important measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for items expected to last three or more years. Products such as electronics, refrigerators, airplanes and autos are examples of these big-ticket items. Analysts are expecting to see a 2.0% increase in new orders, hinting at manufacturing sector growth. This data is known to be volatile from month to month, so don?t be surprised if a modest variance from forecasts does not have much of an influence on tomorrows mortgage rates.

The less important one is the weekly unemployment update from the Labor Department. They are expected to say that 270,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, up from the previous weeks 262,000. Ideally, we want to see a large increase in initial claims because rising claims indicate a weakening employment sector. This report will also be posted at 8:30 AM ET, but it usually takes a wide variance from expectations for it to have an impact on mortgage rates and the Durable Goods data carries much more significance than this report.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Feb 25, 2016

Thursdays bond market opened in positive territory despite stronger than expected manufacturing data. The stock markets are calm for the most part with the Dow down 3 points and the Nasdaq down 15 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32 (1.71%), but due to weakness late yesterday we still should see an increase of approximately .125 of a discount point in this morning?s mortgage rates.

Yesterdays 5-year Treasury Note auction went pretty well with several benchmarks showings a decent level of investor interest in the securities. That news helped the bond market slow the downward move that was already in progress. Unfortunately, that was short-lived and bonds continued to slip lower as the afternoon progressed. However, yesterday?s sale results do help us to remain optimistic about today?s 7-year Note auction. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading. Another good auction good help boost bond prices and possibly cause a small improvement to mortgage rates later today.

This mornings economic data gave us mixed results with the more important of the two being the negative news. The good news came in the weekly unemployment update at 8:30 AM ET. It showed that 272,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was an increase from the previous week?s 262,000 and slightly higher than the 270,000 that was expected. Because rising claims hints at a softening labor market and is a sign of economic weakness, we can consider this news to be favorable for mortgage rates.

The more important data was January's Durable Goods Orders data that revealed a 4.9% jump in new orders for big-ticket products such as electronics, refrigerators, airplanes and autos. This was much higher than the 2.0% increase that was forecasted. Even a secondary reading that excludes more volatile transportation-related orders, like new airplanes, exceeded expectations (up 1.8% vs 0.4%). These readings indicate a better than thought manufacturing sector that causes us to label the data negative for mortgage shoppers.

Tomorrow has the remaining three relevant pieces of economic data. The first of two revisions to the 4th Quarter GDP reading is scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET. The GDP is considered the benchmark reading of economic growth or contraction because it is the total sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. Analysts forecasts currently call for an annual rate of growth of 0.4%, down from the initial estimate of 0.7% that was posted last month. It will be interesting to see where this figure falls and what its impact on the markets will be. Generally speaking, higher levels of activity are bad news for the bond market, while a larger downward revision would be good news for bonds and could lead to improvements in mortgage pricing tomorrow.

Januarys Personal Income and Outlays data is also scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow. This data gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. Current forecasts call for an increase in income of 0.4% while spending is expected to rise 0.3%. Lower levels of income means consumers have less money to spend. And weaker levels of consumer spending helps limit overall economic growth, making long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds more attractive to investors. Therefore, the weaker the readings, the better the news it would be for mortgage rates.

The University of Michigan's revision to their Index of Consumer Sentiment for February will close out the weeks calendar just before 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. Current forecasts show this index rising slightly from its preliminary estimate of 90.7. This index is fairly important because it helps us measure consumer confidence that translates into consumer willingness to spend, but is not considered to be a major market mover. This means it will probably not have a significant impact on mortgage rates, especially with GDP revision and Personal Income & Outlays reports being released the same day.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Feb 26, 2016

Fridays bond market opened in negative territory following stronger than expected economic news. The stock markets are relatively flat with the Dow and Nasdaq both up about 9 points. The bond market is currently down 13/32 (1.75%), which should push this morning?s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.

Yesterdays 7-year Treasury Note auction was postponed to today due to technical issues with the auction process. If the sale goes well, we could see bonds improve after results are posted at 1:00 PM ET. If demand or interest in the securities was weak, we may see bonds extend this mornings losses.

The first of two revisions to the 4th Quarter GDP reading was this morning?s first piece of data. It showed that the economy grew at an annual rate of 1.0% last quarter, up from the previous estimate of 0.7%. More importantly, analysts were expecting to see a downward revision, not an upward change. This means that the economy was stronger during the last three months of the year than previously thought, making the data bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Also at 8:30 AM ET this morning was Januarys Personal Income and Outlays report. It revealed 0.5% increases in both the income and spending readings. Analysts were expecting to see increases of 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. These readings indicate that consumers had more money to spend last month and did spend more than predicted. Because those are signs of economic strength, this data also is bad news for mortgage shoppers.

Closing out the weeks calendar was the University of Michigans revision to their February Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index came in at 91.7, which was slightly higher than forecasts. The increase means surveyed consumers were a bit more confident in their own financial situations than they were last month. Again, a sign of economic strength so it is bad news for mortgage rates even though this is only a moderately important report.

Next week brings us several very important economic reports in addition to some others. None are scheduled for Monday, so expect weekend news and stock movement to influence bond trading. Look for details on next weeks calendar in Sunday evenings weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Feb 29, 2016

Mondays bond market has opened in positive territory despite a calm open in stocks and no relevant economic data set for release today. The major stock indexes are showing minor gains of 15 points in the Dow and 13 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 6/32 (1.74%), which should improve mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point if comparing to Friday?s early pricing.

Today is the only day of the week with nothing scheduled for release that is relevant to mortgage rates. The rest of the week has six reports for the markets to digest with two being considered highly important. The most important data comes tomorrow and Friday, but sizable moves in stocks can impact bond trading and mortgage rates any day.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release their manufacturing index for February late tomorrow morning. This index measures manufacturer sentiment and can have a pretty large impact on the financial and mortgage markets if it varies from forecasts. It is expected to show an increase from January's 48.2 to 48.7 this month. This is important because a reading below 50.0 means more surveyed manufacturers felt business worsened during the month than those who felt it had improved. A sub-50 reading is considered a recessionary sign. If we see a weaker than expected reading, the bond market could rally. But, a much higher than forecasted reading, particularly above 50.0 could lead to heavy selling in bonds, causing mortgage rates to rise Tuesday morning. One of the reasons this data is considered so important is the fact that it is usually the first monthly report posted that covers the preceding month. It is traditionally posted the first business day of the month, allowing for a current snapshot of conditions in the manufacturing sector.

Overall, look for a fairly active week in the markets and mortgage rates, especially the early and latter days. Friday is the most important day of the week due to the significance of that day's data but we could also see a noticeable move in rates Tuesday. With data or relevant reports being posted four of five days and some of that data considered key, it would be prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing soon.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Mar 1, 2016

Tuesday?s bond market has opened in negative territory following stronger than expected manufacturing-related news. The stock markets are reacting favorably to the data with the Dow up 174 points and the Nasdaq up 66 points. The bond market is currently down 18/32 (1.80%), which should push this morning?s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Today?s only data came late this morning when the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) posted their manufacturing index for February. It came in at 49.5, exceeding forecasts of 48.7 and up from January?s 48.2. This means that more surveyed manufacturers felt business improved in the sector than did last month. The sub-50 reading means more felt business conditions worsened than those who felt they had improved though. Still, the higher reading indicates the manufacturing sector was a bit stronger than many had thought, making the data negative for bonds and mortgage rates.

Tomorrow has two items on the agenda. The first comes from payroll processor ADP at 8:15 AM ET. They will announce their change in private-sector payrolls processed last month, giving us an idea of employment sector strength or weakness. Since it is not a government agency report, it isn't considered to be highly important. However, as with any employment-related data, it does draw some attention. This is especially true for this report because it is posted just a couple days before monthly employment figures are released by the Labor Department. I personally believe it is given more attention than it really deserves, particularly because many use it to predict the monthly government figures but often fail miserably. Still, if it shows a noticeable variance from expectations of 190,000 new private sector payrolls, it will likely cause movement in the markets and mortgage rates.

The Fed Beige Book is the next report scheduled for release, coming at 2:00 PM ET tomorrow afternoon. This report details economic activity throughout the country by Federal Reserve region. The Fed relies heavily on this data during their FOMC meetings, so look for a potential reaction during afternoon trading tomorrow. It probably will not cause a major sell off in the stock or bond markets, but it is still worth watching.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Mar 2, 2016

Wednesday?s bond market has opened in negative territory with this morning?s only relevant economic data showing unfavorable results. The major stock indexes are showing moderate losses with the Dow down 67 points and the Nasdaq down 6 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32 (1.85%), which should push this morning?s mortgage rates slightly higher.

ADP?s employment report was posted at 8:15 AM ET this morning, giving us some insight into the private-sector portion of the employment market. It showed an increase of 214,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts of 190,000. This is a sign that the employment sector may be stronger than expected, making the data bad news for mortgage rates. However, this report does not carry the importance of Friday?s monthly government Employment report, so its impact on today?s rates has been relatively minimal.

The Fed?s Beige Book will be posted at 2:00 PM ET this afternoon. This report details economic activity throughout the country by Federal Reserve region. They rely heavily on this data during their FOMC meetings, so look for a potential reaction to come mid-afternoon. It probably will not cause a major sell off in the stock or bond markets, but it is still worth watching.

Tomorrow has three pieces of data scheduled for release, but none of them are considered to be highly important. Last week?s unemployment figures will start them at 8:30 AM ET. They are expected to show 270,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This would be a small decrease from the previous week?s 272,000 initial claims, indicating the employment sector strengthened slightly last week. Since rising claims hints at a weakening employment sector, the larger the number the better the news it is for mortgage rates. Although, it is worth noting that because this is only a weekly snapshot, it usually takes a surprise increase or decline for the report to noticeably affect rates.

Also at 8:30 AM will be the release of the revised Productivity index for the 4th Quarter of last year. The preliminary reading posted last month showed a decline of 3.0% in worker output. Analysts are expecting to see a downward revision of 0.3% to last month's initial reading. Employee productivity is watched fairly closely because a higher level of output per hour is believed to mean that the economy can expand without inflation concerns. However, since this data is quite aged now, it likely will have little impact on Thursday's mortgage rates unless it shows a significant change.

The final report of the day is January's Factory Orders at 10:00 AM ET, which will give us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength. This data is similar to last week's Durable Goods, except this report covers orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Current forecasts are calling for an increase in new orders of approximately 2.0%. A smaller than expected increase would be good news for the bond market and could lead to a slight improvement in mortgage rates since it would point towards economic weakness.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Mar 4, 2016

Fridays bond market has opened well in negative territory following stronger than expected economic news. Stocks are reacting favorably to the data, pushing the Dow higher by 69 points and the Nasdaq up 16 points. The bond market is currently down 18/32 (1.89%), but due to strength late yesterday we should see only a slight increase in this mornings rates if comparing to Thursdays early pricing.

Todays only relevant economic news was the almighty monthly Employment report that showed the U.S. unemployment rate held at 4.9% as expected and that 242,000 new jobs were added to the economy. That was the problematic number. Analysts were expecting to see only 190,000 payrolls added. That news, along with upward revisions to Januarys and Decembers payrolls that added 30,000 more jobs than previously thought, makes the report unfavorable for bonds and mortgage rates. It also keeps in play another Fed rate hike during one of the next couple FOMC meetings.

In a bit of good news, the report revealed a 0.1% decline in average earnings. This was well short of the 0.2% increase that was expected and eased some wage-related inflation concerns. Since that followed a sizable increase in January, there was a sigh of relief that wages weren?t in a rapid upward trend. Still, the overall impact the report has had on the bond and mortgage markets is clearly negative.

Next week has little in terms of economic data that is expected to influence mortgage rates. With exception to a couple of Treasury auctions that will be in the spotlight, we could very well see a relatively calm week for rates unless stocks make a major move or something unexpected takes place. Look for details on next week?s events in Sunday evening?s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Mar 7, 2016

Mondays bond market has opened in negative territory as the downward momentum continues. The major stock indexes are starting the week mixed with the Dow up 17 points and the Nasdaq down 20 points. The bond market is currently down 10/32 (1.91%), which should push this mornings mortgage rates slightly higher than Fridays morning pricing. Gains late Friday are helping to prevent more of a move in todays rates.

There is nothing scheduled for release today that is expected to influence mortgage rates. In fact, there is no relevant monthly or quarterly economic reports for the markets to digest this week. There are two Treasury auctions scheduled that are likely to have an impact on mortgage rates the middle part, but other than that we can expect stocks to be the most likely force behind a noticeable movement in rates.

If stocks post sizable gains, bonds are likely to move lower. Since bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, this could lead to higher mortgage rates. The benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield is currently at 1.91%. That is well above the multi-year low of 1.64% that we saw last month but still below a very important threshold of 2.00%. There is a possibility of seeing the yield improve a little in the near term, but I fear we are headed back above 2.00% before too long. If that level is broken, yields and mortgage rates are likely to continue to rise. Therefore, I am maintaining my conservative stance towards locking an interest rate if closing soon. At least for the time being.

Overall, I would label Wednesday as the most important day of the week due to the 10-year Note auction. However, significant movement in stocks could drive bond and mortgage rate direction any day. Accordingly, please stay in contact with your mortgage professional if still floating a rate and closing in the near future.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Mar 8, 2016

Tuesdays bond market has opened well in positive territory following weak economic news from overseas. The stock markets are showing sizable losses with the Dow down 115 points and the Nasdaq down 34 points. The bond market is currently up 25/32 (1.81%), which should improve this mornings mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point if comparing to Mondays early pricing. Some weakness in bonds late yesterday are preventing more of an improvement in this mornings rates.

There is nothing scheduled for release today here in the U.S. that has the potential to affect mortgage rates. We are seeing bonds extend overnight gains and on top of that, weak economic data from China is renewing global economic concerns that make bonds more attractive. If stocks remain near current levels, bonds and mortgage rates should follow suit. If the major stock indexes rebound and recover a good portion of this mornings early losses, we could see bonds give back some of their gains also.

Tomorrow doesnt have any relevant economic data set for release, but we do have an afternoon event to watch. Morning trading will likely be driven by stock movement as long as no surprises come from overseas again.

The afternoon event is the 10-year Treasury Note auction. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading. If investor demand was high, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading as it would hint that investors still have an appetite for longer-term securities. However, weak demand in these types of sales often lead to bond selling and an increase in mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Mar 9, 2016

Wednesday?s bond market has opened in negative territory, extending late afternoon weakness that erased part of yesterday?s morning gains. The stock markets are fairly flat with the Dow down 4 points and the Nasdaq down 2 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32 (1.86%), which should push this morning?s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

This morning has nothing scheduled for release that is expected to influence rates. We likely will be left to look to stocks for bond direction today. If the major stock indexes move noticeably higher or lower, we can expect bonds to move with them. Stocks gains generally equate to bond weakness and higher rates while stock selling makes an improvement to mortgage pricing more likely.

Today does bring us the first of this week?s two Treasury auctions that could potentially affect mortgage rates. That is the 10-year Treasury Note auction, followed by 30-year bonds tomorrow. Results of both sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET on the sale days. If investor demand was high, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading as it would hint that investors still have an appetite for longer-term securities. However, weak demand in the sales could lead to selling and an increase in mortgage rates late today and/or tomorrow.

Tomorrow also has last week?s unemployment update at 8:30 AM ET. It is expected to say that 275,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, down a little from the previous week?s 278,000. Ideally, we want to see a large increase in initial claims because rising claims indicate a weakening employment sector. Since this report is only a weekly snapshot of the sector, it usually takes a wide variance from expectations for it to have an impact on mortgage rates. However, with no other data being posted this week, we may see a slightly bigger reaction than we usually do.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Mar 11, 2016

Friday?s bond market has opened in negative territory again with nothing being released to offset this downward momentum. Stocks are showing solid gains with the Dow up 148 points and the Nasdaq up 38 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32 (1.95%), which should push this morning?s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point over Thursday?s early pricing.

It was another active afternoon for bonds yesterday as they slipped further into negative ground during late morning and lunch time trading. News of a fairly decent 30-year Bond auction helped to recover some of the secondary losses but they still closed in the red. The activity caused many lenders to revise rates lower early, followed by some improving pricing post-auction. How much of an increase you are seeing today depends on what moves your lender made intra-day yesterday.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield is still within that range that it could make a move much higher or drop lower. The longer it remains above 1.92%, the more concerned we should be that it will break above 2.00%. Once that is done, there is a lot of room for it to move higher in my opinion. Since mortgage rates tend to track bond yields, this would not be good news for mortgage shoppers.

Next week has a handful of relevant economic releases that may affect mortgage rates in addition to a FOMC meeting that will be followed by a Fed press conference and revised economic projections. There is nothing of importance set for Monday, so we can expect weekend news and possibly stock movement to dictate bond and mortgage rate direction as the week starts. Look for details on next week?s calendar in Sunday evening?s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Mar 14, 2016

Mondays bond market has opened in positive territory with stocks in the negative and no relevant economic data coming today to drive trading. Stocks are starting the week in with minor losses of 24 points in the Dow and 10 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 7/32 (1.95%), which should improve this morning?s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point from Fridays early levels.

Today is the only day of the week that we don?t have something scheduled for release that may have an impact on mortgage rates. The rest of the week brings us seven monthly reports for the bond market to digest in addition to a Fed-filled day in the middle part of the week. The most important reports and Fed events take place the middle days, so we may see the most movement in mortgage rates those days.

Tomorrow starts the weeks activities with the release of February's Retail Sales data and Producer Price Index. The sales report will come from the Commerce Department at 8:30 AM ET Tuesday morning. This data is extremely important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending strength. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, data that is related usually has a big impact on the markets. This months report is expected to show a decline in sales of approximately 0.1%. If it reveals an unexpected increase, the bond market will likely fall and mortgage rates will move higher as it would indicate a stronger level of economic growth than many had thought. If it reveals a much weaker level of spending, expect to see bond prices rise and mortgage rates improve tomorrow morning. The Labor Department will post February's Producer Price Index (PPI), also early tomorrow morning.

This important index measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the index- the overall reading and the core data. The core data is more important and watched more closely because it excludes more volatile food and energy (such as gasoline) prices. If the index shows a large increase, inflation concerns will rise, making long-term investments such as mortgage-related bonds less attractive to investors. This would lead to higher mortgage rates tomorrow morning. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.2% drop in the overall reading and a 0.1% increase in the core data. The weaker the core reading, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

Overall, I am considering Wednesday as the key day of the week with the Fed events scheduled but tomorrows data can also cause volatility in the markets. The least important day will probably be today or Friday. The benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield closed Friday at 1.98% and is currently at 1.95%. This is dangerously close to 2.00%, which I believe if broken will cause another noticeable move higher. Because mortgage rates tend to track bond yields, this would be bad news for mortgage shoppers. Therefore, I am holding the conservative stance towards locking or floating an interest rate at this time. If closing in the near future, it may be prudent to consider locking or at least maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate. At least until it is clear whether yields will move lower or higher from this level.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Mar 14, 2016

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/580298.aspx

Tamalewagon · Mar 15, 2016

Tuesday?s bond market has opened in positive territory following the release of mostly favorable economic news. The stock markets are showing moderate losses with the Dow down 56 points and the Nasdaq down 31 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32 (1.93%), but due to some selling late yesterday we will likely see this morning?s mortgage rates remain close to yesterday?s early pricing.

February's Retail Sales data was the first of two important economic reports that were released this morning. The Commerce Department announced a 0.1% decline in sales early this morning. That pegged forecasts, as did the 0.2% decline in a secondary reading that excludes more volatile and costly auto transactions. The surprise came in a sizable downward revision to January?s sales that indicated they were 0.6% weaker than previously thought (+0.2% vs -0.4%). January?s activity is somewhat aged at this point but will still be reflected in quarterly reports that will be posted next month. Therefore, we can consider the data slightly good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

The second release of the morning also came at 8:30 AM ET when February's Producer Price Index (PPI) was posted. It showed a 0.2% decline in the overall reading and no change in the core data. The overall reading matched expectations, but the more important core reading was just short of the 0.1% increase that was expected. This means that inflationary pressures were a little softer at the producer level of the economy last month than some had thought. That makes the report slightly favorable for mortgage rates also.

Tomorrow is going to be a very busy day with three pieces of economic data being released during morning hours and key Fed events taking place in the afternoon. The most important of the morning batch is February's Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 AM ET. It is the sister release of today?s PPI but measures inflationary pressures at the very important consumer level of the economy. The CPI is expected to show a 0.2% decrease in the overall index and a 0.1% rise in the more important core data that excludes volatile food and energy prices. As with the PPI, weaker than expected readings will be good news for bonds and mortgage rates tomorrow.

Also early tomorrow morning, February's Housing Starts data will be released. This report tracks construction starts of new housing. It doesn't usually cause much movement in mortgage rates and is considered one of the less important reports we see each month. It is expected to show an increase in housing starts, indicating growth in the housing sector. Good news for the bond market and mortgage rates would be a sizable decline in new starts, but unless we see a large variance from forecasts the data likely will not lead to a noticeable move in mortgage pricing.

The third and final morning release will be February's Industrial Production report at 9:15 AM ET. This report measures manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.3% decline from January's level. A larger decline would be considered favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates because it would indicate manufacturing sector weakness and broader economic growth would be more difficult if manufacturing activity is slipping.

Tomorrow?s Fed events start with the 2:00 PM ET adjournment of the two-day FOMC meeting. The general consensus is that Fed Chairman Yellen and company will not raise key short-term interest rates at this meeting, although some market participants feel it is possible. Even if no move is made, we will be closely watching the post-meeting statement for changes in verbiage that could indicate when their next move is likely to take place. Any surprises could heavily influence the markets and mortgage rates tomorrow afternoon.

The FOMC meeting is ending a little earlier than the traditional 2:15 PM because it is one of the meetings that will be followed by a press conference with Chairman Yellen. The meeting will adjourn at 2:00 PM, which is also when the Fed will update their economic projections. They will be followed by a press conference at 2:30 PM. These events will probably lead to afternoon volatility in the markets and mortgage rates tomorrow.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Mar 18, 2016

Fridays bond market has opened up slightly despite early stock strength. The major stock indexes appear ready to close the week with solid gains, pushing the Dow higher by 114 points and the Nasdaq up 11 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (1.89%), which should keep this mornings mortgage rates close to yesterdays levels.

The University of Michigans Index of Consumer Sentiment was this morning?s only relevant economic data. It came just before 10:00 AM ET, showing a reading of 90.0 for March. This was a couple points lower than expectations of 92.2 and was a decline from February?s final reading of 91.7 when analysts were expecting to see an increase. That reading indicates surveyed consumers were less optimistic about their own financial and employment situations than they were last month. Because waning confidence usually means weaker levels of consumer spending that fuels economic growth, we can consider this mornings data good news for mortgage rates.

Next week brings us a handful of economic reports that may affect mortgage rates but most of them are considered to be only moderately important to the markets. There is data Monday when the National Association of Realtors posts Februarys Existing Home Sales figures. It will give a measurement of housing sector strength. However, it isn?t one of the more important reports we see each month and usually causes changes to mortgage pricing if it shows a noticeable variance from forecasts.

Friday of next week is Good Friday, so it will be a holiday-shortened week with the markets closed Friday and an early close in the bond market Thursday. Look for details on all of next week?s relevant events in Sunday evening?s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Mar 22, 2016

Tuesday?s bond market has opened in positive territory, due mostly as a reaction to the terror attacks in Belgium. The stock markets are mixed for the most part with the Dow down 41 points and the Nasdaq up 1 point. The bond market is currently up 9/32 (1.89%), but weakness late yesterday should keep this morning?s mortgage rates at yesterday?s levels.

There is nothing of importance scheduled for release today. We are seeing a minor flight to safety into bonds as the overseas terrorist event has hurt stock prices in many markets. These events tend to push stock prices lower as investors move funds to the safety of bonds. As funds come into bonds, their yields and mortgage rates move lower. Today?s move was not significant, but was enough to affect mortgage rates (erasing a small increase from late yesterday). As long as the major stock indexes remain near their current levels, bonds and mortgage rates will likely follow suit.

Tomorrow?s sole report is February's New Home Sales figures at 10:00 AM ET. The Commerce Department is expected to announce an increase in sales of newly constructed homes. This report tracks a much smaller percentage of home sales than yesterday's Existing Home Sales report covered, so it should have less of an influence on the markets and mortgage pricing. A large increase in sales would be negative for the bond market and mortgage pricing because it would point towards economic strength.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Mar 24, 2016

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/586182.aspx

Tamalewagon · Mar 24, 2016

Thursday?s bond market has opened down slightly despite favorable economic news. The stock markets are showing moderate losses of 60 points in the Dow and 6 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 2/32 (1.88%), but due to strength late yesterday, we still may see a slight improvement in this morning?s mortgage rates if comparing to yesterday?s early pricing.

The first of this morning?s two relevant reports was February's Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET. The Commerce Department announced a 2.8% decline in new factory orders for big-ticket products that have a life expectancy of 3 or more years. This was very close to the 2.9% decline that was expected. Since this data is known to be volatile from month to month, that difference from expectations had no impact on today?s rates. But a secondary reading that strips out more costly and volatile transportation-related orders such as new airplanes, showed a 1.0% drop when analysts were calling for only a 0.2% decrease. That variance is what allows us to consider the data good news for mortgage rates, even though it is not showing in this morning?s trading.

Also posted early this morning was last week?s unemployment figures. They revealed that 265,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a little short of the 268,000 that was predicted, but a downward revision to the previous week?s number of initial claims (from 265k to 259k) means we saw an increase last week. Because this is only a weekly snapshot, many analysts and market participants don?t put too much weight into the figures. You could make an argument that the increase is good news for bonds and mortgage rates, while the other side of the argument is that the number of claims fell short of forecasts so the data is bad news. Either way, we haven?t seen the markets have much of a reaction to the data.

The bond market is set to close at 2:00 PM ET today ahead of tomorrow?s Good Friday holiday. The stock and bond markets will be closed all day tomorrow and will reopen for regular trading Monday. It is common to see some pressure in bonds as investors make moves to protect themselves over the long holiday, so don?t be surprised if bonds weaken as the day progresses.

Despite the markets being closed tomorrow, there is a somewhat relevant piece of data being released. It is the final revision to the 4th Quarter GDP at 8:30 AM ET. This is the second and final revision to January's preliminary reading of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product, or the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. The GDP is the benchmark measurement of economic activity. It is expected to show that the economy grew at an annual pace of 1.0% last quarter, unchanged from the previous estimate that was released last month. Analysts are now more concerned with next month's preliminary reading of the 1st quarter than data from three to six months ago. Because the markets are closed, we won?t see a reaction to this report until they reopen next Monday.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Mar 28, 2016

Mondays bond market has opened up slightly even though this mornings only economic data appears to have showed stronger than expected results. The stock markets are mixed yet fairly calm with the Dow up 20 points and the Nasdaq down 7 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32 (1.89%), but due to weakness prior to Thursdays early close, we still should see a minor increase in this mornings mortgage rates. The financial and mortgage markets were closed Friday for the Good Friday holiday.

Februarys Personal Income & Outlays report was posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning. It revealed a 0.2% rise in income and a 0.1% increase in spending. The income reading exceeded forecasts of up 0.1%, meaning consumers had more money to spend than many had thought. The spending reading matched forecasts, but a sizable downward revision to Januarys spending (+0.5% to +0.1%) helped offset the rise in income. The net impact this data has had on todays mortgage rates has been minimal.

The rest of the week brings us the release of five more economic reports that have the potential to move mortgage rates along with two potentially influential Treasury auctions. Tomorrow also has only one report worth watching. This will come from the New York-based Conference Board at 10:00 AM ET when they post their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for March. This index gives us an indication of consumers willingness to spend. Bond traders watch this data closely because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of our economy. If this report shows that confidence in their own financial situations is falling, it would indicate that consumers are less apt to make a large purchase in the near future. If it reveals that confidence looks to be growing, we may see bond traders sell as economic growth may rise, pushing mortgage rates higher tomorrow morning. It is expected to show a reading of 94.5 up from Februarys 92.2 reading. The lower the reading, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates.

Tomorrow also has the first of this weeks two Treasury auctions that may also influence bond trading enough to affect mortgage rates. There will be an auction of 5-year Notes tomorrow and 7-year Notes on Wednesday. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions to mortgage rates. However, strong sales usually make bonds more attractive to investors and bring more funds into the bond market. The buying of bonds that follows often translates into lower mortgage rates. Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET auction day, so look for any reaction to come during afternoon hours.

Overall, Friday is clearly the biggest day of the week due to the significance of the Employment report and ISM index that are both set for posting. It surely will be an interesting day to cap off the week. I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional this week if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Apr 4, 2016

Mondays bond market has opened relatively flat with todays only data not showing any surprises and stocks calm also. The stock markets are starting the week with modest losses of 9 points in the Dow and 3 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 1/32 (1.77%), but due to a little strength late Friday we may see a slight improvement in today?s rates.

This weeks only relevant economic data was Februarys Factory Orders at 10:00 AM ET this morning. It showed a 1.7% decline in new orders, nearly matching forecasts of a 1.6% drop. This is a sign of manufacturing sector weakness, but since it was expected it has had no impact on this mornings mortgage rates.

The rest of the week has little in terms of economic data scheduled that is expected to influence mortgage rates. Besides the weekly unemployment update, the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting is the only thing left on the calendar that is likely to influence mortgage rates. This means stocks may have a bigger impact on bonds and mortgage pricing than they usually do the next several days.

Overall, look for the most movement in rates the mid part of the week. Wednesday could be the most active day of the week if the FOMC minutes reveal any surprises. Tomorrow appears to be the lightest and will probably be the calmest day for mortgage rates. Look for the stock markets to also influence bond trading and mortgage rates a good part of the week due to the light economic release schedule. I am expecting it to be a relatively calm week for the mortgage market, but that can change at any time so please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Apr 5, 2016

Tuesday?s bond market has opened in positive territory with stocks in negative ground and no significant economic data scheduled for release. The major stock indexes are showing moderate losses with the Dow down 62 points and the Nasdaq down 25 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32 (1.72%), but because bonds weakened after pricing was posted yesterday, this morning?s improvement in rates will likely be limited to less than .125 of a discount point.

There is nothing of importance set for today that is expected to affect bond trading enough to influence rates. If we see bonds turn direction and give up their early gains, it will probably be a result of an upward move in stocks. On the other hand, if stocks extend current losses, bonds may benefit, possibly leading to a slight intraday improvement to mortgage pricing later today.

Tomorrow morning also has no relevant economic data for the markets to digest. However, we will get the minutes from the last FOMC meeting during afternoon trading. Market participants will be looking at them closely as they give us insight to the Fed's current thought process and individual Fed member opinions. Any surprises in the 2:00 PM ET release, particularly about inflation, economic conditions or when the next rate hike will take place, could cause afternoon volatility in the markets tomorrow and possible changes in mortgage pricing.

After tomorrow?s release, there isn?t much left to drive bond trading the rest of the week. We do have a couple of Fed speaking engagements, including Chair Janet Yellen, but none are expected to be market movers. There also is the weekly unemployment update early Thursday, which is considered to be of low importance. There is a decent probability of seeing a relatively calm couple of days for the mortgage market. Still, it is always prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate because circumstances can change at any time.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Apr 6, 2016

Wednesdays bond market has opened in negative territory despite no relevant data being released. Stocks are showing minor gains with the Dow up 18 points and the Nasdaq up 25 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32 (1.72%), which should push this morning?s mortgage rates slightly higher than yesterday?s early pricing. I suspect most lenders will be no more than .125 of a discount point higher today than they were yesterday.

Todays only relevant event comes this afternoon when the Fed releases the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting. Market participants will be looking at them closely as they give us insight to the Fed's current thought process and individual Fed member opinions. Any surprises in the 2:00 PM ET release, particularly about inflation, economic conditions or when the next rate hike will take place, could cause afternoon volatility in the markets and changes in mortgage pricing.

Last weeks unemployment figures is tomorrows only data. The 8:30 AM ET release is expected to show that 270,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This would be a decline from the previous weeks 276,000 initial filings. The larger the number of new claims, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates because rising claims indicate a softening employment sector. Because this report is only a weekly snapshot, it often has a minimal impact on mortgage rates. However, with so little being posted this week, we may see a slightly stronger reaction than usual.

With exception to a couple of Fed speaking engagements, there isn?t much left on the calendar this week that is expected to affect mortgage rates. That leaves stock movement as the most likely factor to drive bond trading and mortgage rates tomorrow and Friday.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Apr 6, 2016

Article - http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/592971.aspx

Tamalewagon · Apr 7, 2016

Thursdays bond market has opened in positive territory despite unfavorable economic news. Stocks are helping the cause with the Dow down 97 points and the Nasdaq down 29 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32 (1.72%), but due to weakness late yesterday we should see little change in this mornings rates. If your lender worsened pricing yesterday afternoon, you should see an improvement this morning by the same amount.

Yesterday afternoons release of the minutes from last month?s FOMC meeting did not give us too many surprises but did reaffirm recent comments made by Chairperson Janet Yellen that indicate the Fed is more concerned about global economic growth and is likely to take a cautious approach towards raising key short-term interest rates. Both her comments and the minutes seem to point towards no change in key rates at the FOMC meeting later this month. While this was basically good news for the bond market, the positive reaction came last week following her speaking engagement. It was old news when we saw it yesterday afternoon.

Todays only data was last week?s unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET. It showed that 267,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, down from the previous weeks 276,000 initial filings. The decline in claims hints at a strengthening employment sector, making the data bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. Fortunately, this is only a weekly snapshot, so its impact on todays trading has been minimal.

After the markets close today, there is a speaking engagement that includes a conversation with current Fed Chair Janet Yellen and former chairs Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker. This is scheduled to take place at 5:30 PM ET, so any reaction to something said will not come until tomorrows open.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release tomorrow. Unless we get something unexpected and significant in tonights Fed talk, we can look towards stocks for bond market and mortgage rate direction.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Apr 7, 2016

article - http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/04072016_corelogic_distressed_sales.asp

Tamalewagon · Apr 8, 2016

Fridays bond market has opened in negative territory with stocks rebounding from yesterdays losses. The Dow is currently up 123 points while the Nasdaq has gained 28 points. The bond market is currently down 12/32 (1.72%), but another afternoon move in bonds yesterday should offset this mornings losses.

As stocks slipped further into negative ground yesterday, bonds benefited. Many lenders improved rates during afternoon trading as a result. Unfortunately, this mornings losses erase that improvement, keeping todays mortgage rates at Thursdays morning levels.

There is nothing of relevance scheduled for release today that may influence bonds and mortgage rates. If there is yet another afternoon rally or selling, it will likely be fueled movement in stocks. If the major stock indexes extend their current gains, we could see more pressure in bonds that leads to an upward revision to rates later today. On the other hand, if stocks give up this mornings gains, we could see an improvement to mortgage pricing by the end of day.

Next week is pretty active with a handful of economic reports that are likely to affect mortgage rates in addition to two Treasury auctions. None of them are scheduled for Monday. Look for details on next weeks calendar in Sunday evening?s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Apr 8, 2016

article - http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/594845.aspx

Tamalewagon · Apr 11, 2016

Monday?s bond market has opened down slightly due to a lack of relevant economic news to drive trading. The stock markets are kicking the week off with moderate gains of 56 points in the Dow and 16 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 3/32 (1.72%), but we should still see an improvement of approximately .125 of a discount point in this morning?s mortgage rates due to strength late Friday.

The rest of the week brings us the release of six economic reports that have the potential to affect mortgage rates in addition to a couple of Treasury auctions, but none are set for tomorrow. We also have the start of corporate earnings season that can significantly impact the stock markets and help direct funds into or away from bonds. I suspect stocks will help dictate bond and mortgage rates direction tomorrow. Strong earnings reports should fuel a stock rally that pressures bonds and leads to higher mortgage rates. On the other hand, disappointing earnings news should make bonds more attractive to investors and lead to rate improvements.

There are three reports coming Wednesday, two of which are considered to be highly important to the bond and mortgage markets. They are March?s Retail Sales and Producer Price Index reports during morning trading and the Fed?s Beige Book report during afternoon hours. Wednesday also has the 10-year Treasury auction scheduled that often influences the bond market enough to affect mortgage pricing.

Overall, look for Wednesday to be the key day of the week but Thursday does have important data also. Because we also have earnings reports to watch this week in addition to the economic releases and auctions, there is a high probability of seeing an active week in the financial and mortgage markets. Therefore, please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Apr 11, 2016

article - http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/597165.aspx

Tamalewagon · Apr 12, 2016

Tuesdays bond market has opened in negative territory despite no relevant economic data being released today. The major stock indexes are mixed with the Dow up 56 points and the Nasdaq down 4 points. The bond market is currently down 11/32 (1.76%), erasing strength late yesterday. However, it is those gains from yesterdays afternoon trading that should prevent an increase in this mornings mortgage pricing.

The Commerce Department will start this weeks activities with the release of Marchs Retail Sales data at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow morning. This piece of data gives us a very important measurement of consumer spending. Spending is relevant because consumer level spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Forecasts are calling for a 0.1% increase in sales from February to March. If we see a larger increase in spending, the bond market will likely fall and mortgage rates will rise as it would indicate consumers are spending more than thought, fueling economic growth. However, a weaker than expected level of sales could push bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower tomorrow morning.

Also early tomorrow morning, the Labor Department will post March's Producer Price Index (PPI). It will give us an important measurement of inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the report that analysts watch- the overall reading and the core data. The core data is more important to market participants because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. If it shows rapidly rising prices, inflation fears may hurt bond prices since it erodes the value of a bond's future fixed interest payments and cause the Fed to raise key short-term rates sooner. A good size decline in prices would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.3% increase in the overall reading and a 0.2% rise in the core data.

The Federal Reserves Beige Book report will be posted during afternoon trading tomorrow. This report is named simply after the color of its cover but details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by Fed region. Since the Fed relies heavily on the contents of this report during their FOMC meetings, its results can have a fairly big impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates if it reveals any significant surprises. Generally speaking, signs of strong economic growth or inflation rising from the last update would be considered negative for bonds and mortgage rates. Slowing economic conditions with little sign of inflationary pressures would be ideal for mortgage rates. The report will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during mid-afternoon hours.

Tomorrow also brings us the first of this weeks two Treasury auctions that may affect mortgage rates. 10-year Notes will go to sale tomorrow while 30-year Bonds will be auctioned Thursday. We could see some weakness in bonds ahead of the sales as participating firms sell current holdings to prepare for them. This weakness is usually only temporary if the sales are met with a decent demand. The results of the auctions will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. If the demand from investors was strong, the bond market could rally during afternoon trading, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the sales were met with a poor demand, the afternoon weakness may cause upward revisions to mortgage pricing during afternoon trading.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Apr 13, 2016

Wednesdays bond market has opened down slightly even though this morning?s important economic data was favorable to bonds. The stock markets are causing a problem for bonds with gains of 129 in the Dow and 55 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 2/32 (1.78%), which with weakness late yesterday should push this mornings mortgage rates slightly higher than Tuesdays morning pricing.

Marchs Retail Sales data was the first of this mornings two pieces of economic data, both of which came at 8:30 AM ET. It showed a 0.3% decline in retail-level sales, falling well short of the 0.1% increase that was expected. Even a secondary reading that excludes costly and volatile auto sales came in below expectations (+0.2% vs +0.4%). These readings show that consumers spent less last month than many had thought Because consumer spending makes up such a huge part of the U.S. economy and bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions, this is clearly good news for the bond and mortgage markets. Unfortunately, attention appears to be turned towards stocks and other things than this morning?s data.

The Labor Department posted March's Producer Price Index (PPI) early this morning also. It showed a decline of 0.1% in both the overall and core readings when moderate increases were forecasted. Analysts were expecting to see a 0.3% rise in the overall reading and a 0.2% increase in the more important core data. This means that inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy were much softer than analysts had predicted. Since inflation devalues a bonds future fixed interest payments, this was also supposed to be good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

We have two afternoon events that may influence bond trading and possibly mortgage rates. The first is the 10-year Treasury Note auction. It is common to see some weakness in bonds ahead of the sales as participating firms sell current holdings to prepare for them. That may be contributing to this morning?s flat open in bonds despite favorable economic news. However, this weakness is usually only temporary if the sales are met with a decent demand. The results of the auction will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If the demand from investors was strong, the bond market could rally during afternoon trading, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the sales were met with a poor demand, the afternoon weakness may cause upward revisions to mortgage pricing later today.

The Federal Reserves Beige Book report will also be posted during afternoon trading. This report is named simply after the color of its cover but details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by Fed region. Since the Fed relies heavily on the contents of this report during their FOMC meetings, its results can have a fairly big impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates if it reveals any significant surprises. Generally speaking, signs of strong economic growth or inflation rising from the last update would be considered negative for bonds and mortgage rates. Slowing economic conditions with little sign of inflationary pressures would be ideal for mortgage rates. The report will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during mid-afternoon hours.

There are two more economic reports scheduled for tomorrow morning, but one is much more important than the other. The key release is March's Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 AM ET. This index is one of the more important pieces of data the bond market gets each month. It is similar to todays PPI but measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy. If inflation is rapidly rising, bonds become less appealing to investors, leading to bond selling and higher mortgage rates. As with the PPI, there are two readings in the index that traders watch- the overall and the core data. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.3% rise in the overall readings and a 0.1% increase in the core reading. The core data is the more important reading, which ideally would show a decline in prices at the consumer level, keeping inflation concerns subdued.

Last weeks unemployment numbers is the second release, also at 8:30 AM ET. They are expected to show that 268,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This would be a minor increase from the previous weeks 267,000 initial claims, indicating the employment sector softened just a tad last week. Since rising claims hints at a weakening employment sector, the larger the number the better the news it is for mortgage rates. Although, it is worth noting that because this is only a weekly snapshot, it usually takes a surprise increase or decline for the report to noticeably affect rates. Especially when its release accompanies a major inflation reading.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Apr 20, 2016

Wednesdays bond market has opened up slightly following the lead of stocks. The major stock indexes are calm with the Dow up 7 points and the Nasdaq up 6 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32 (1.77%), which should keep this morning?s mortgage rates at yesterday?s levels.

Todays sole relevant economic report was March's Existing Homes Sales at 10:00 AM ET. The National Association of Realtors announced that home resales rose 5.1% last month, coming close to expectations. This is a sign of housing sector strength, but since it didn?t show much of a surprise and the report is considered to be moderately important, the news did not affect todays mortgage rates.

Tomorrow has two pieces of data, but neither are considered to be of much concern. The first is last weeks unemployment update at 8:30 AM ET. It will give us a small snapshot of the employment sector and is expected to show that 263,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, up from the previous week. The higher the number of claims, the better the news it is because rising claims hints at a softening labor market. However, since this is only a weekly report, it likely will not have much of an impact on mortgage rates unless it shows a significant variance from forecasts.

The third and final monthly release of the week will come from the Conference Board at 10:00 AM tomorrow morning when they post their Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for March. This data attempts to predict economic activity over the next three to six months. It is also considered to be only a moderately important report, so at best we can expect to see a slight movement in rates as a result of this data. It is expected to show a 0.4% increase from February's reading, meaning it is predicting moderate growth in economic activity over the next several months. A decline would be considered good news for the bond market and could lead to slightly lower mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Apr 21, 2016

Thursdays bond market has opened in negative territory, extending yesterdays afternoon selling. The stock markets are showing minor losses of 32 points in the Dow and 1 point in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 6/32 (1.86%), which with yesterdays afternoon weakness should push this mornings mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point if comparing to Wednesdays early pricing.

We saw bond prices start a downward slide early yesterday afternoon that accelerated as the afternoon progressed. This led to widespread upward revisions to mortgage pricing before the day ended. Just how much of an increase you will see depends on the size of the revision your lender made late yesterday.

The first of this mornings two pieces of relevant economic data was last weeks unemployment numbers at 8:30 AM ET. They showed that the number of new filings for benefits fell to 247,000. This was a decline from the previous weeks 253,000 initial claims and well short of the 263,000 that was expected. The weaker number of claims indicates that the employment sector strengthened last week, making the data negative for the bond and mortgage markets.

Also posted this morning was Marchs Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). The Conference Board announced at 10:00 AM that their LEI rose 0.2% last month, falling short of the 0.4% increase that was expected. A downward revision to Februarys reading also allows us to label this news as favorable for bonds. Unfortunately, this data just isn?t important enough to offset the current negative momentum in the bond market.

Tomorrow has nothing of importance scheduled for release. Based on what we have seen since yesterday morning, we can expect to see a little more volatility tomorrow as this move in yields settles. We are now in the upper part of the recent range of the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield, but still below a critical threshold that raises concern on mortgage rate direction. As long as we stay well away from 2.00%, the likelihood of seeing a large upward move in rates is fairly minimal in my opinion.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Apr 22, 2016

Fridays bond market has opened in negative territory again as the general negative momentum continues. Stocks are showing losses with the Dow down 30 points and the Nasdaq down 56 points. The bond market is currently down 7/32 (1.88%), but due to some strength late yesterday we shouldn?t see much of a change in this mornings mortgage rates.

There is nothing of importance scheduled for release today. If we see an intraday change to mortgage rates, it likely will be a result of a sizable move in stocks. If the major stock indexes extend their morning losses like we saw yesterday, we may see bonds strengthen and mortgage rates improve slightly. On the other hand, stock strength could lead to an intraday increase in mortgage pricing.

Next week is much busier than this week was in terms of relevant economic releases and other events that have the potential to influence the financial and mortgage markets. Besides a handful of reports that include the initial GDP reading for last quarter, we also have an FOMC meeting and a couple of Treasury auctions to deal with. There is a strong possibility of seeing a fair amount of volatility in the markets and mortgage rates next week.

Unlike many Mondays, there is a piece of economic news scheduled for release this coming Monday. We will get March?s New Home Sales figures late Monday morning, giving us a small measure of housing sector strength. This report is not considered to be highly important and usually takes a wide variance from forecasts for it to directly affect rates. Look for details on it and the rest of the week?s calendar in Sunday evening?s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Tamalewagon · Apr 22, 2016

Any contractors seeing this yet?

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/04222016_nahb_remodeling_index.asp

Mortgage Market Update/Purchase and Refinance Mortgage info

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