Is the sky falling????

[CLdrinker]

Damn I have 3 kids but I only got 500 bucks.

Shit maybe they are sending all your checks to me.

 

[BHC Vic]

Dam everyone is rich but me I guess. What do all these people do that can afford to pay 100k cash for toys?

When you find out let me know. I’m trying everything I can to get enough money to buy a truck cash. It ain’t easy on my poor mans wages though. Damn it

 

[Ace in the Hole]

Dam everyone is rich but me I guess. What do all these people do that can afford to pay 100k cash for toys?

There's a lot of people with a lot more liquid money than you would expect in havasu...lot of business owners, generational wealth etc.

 

[hallett21]

Dam everyone is rich but me I guess. What do all these people do that can afford to pay 100k cash for toys?

CPAs, Lawyers, Large commercial contractors, Rental yard owners, Insurance sales, Casino owners, Commercial/Residential real estate, Higher ups at tech companies. To name a few lol.

Edit: Weed anything

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[CLdrinker]

There's a lot of people with a lot more liquid money than you would expect in havasu...lot of business owners, generational wealth etc.

I guess so.
I’m trying to get my kids in that club. Not easy to do off a poor mans salary.

 

[DaveH]

What should that trailer be selling for? 22ft toy hauler seems kind of small. And it’s 13 years old. I imagine there’s some maintenance coming up?

The Hallett is under powered IMO. Clean gel but closed bows are less popular. Judging by the steering wheel anodizing it probably needs some things cleaned up. 45k seems fair for what it is?

Doesn’t look like the sky is falling so much as prices are currently not inflated 2x.

Doesn’t really matter either way. People who are waiting for the economy to tank keep cheering for it to nose dive so they can buy up everything.

Those who over leveraged are cheering for the economy to keep on chugging upward.

And then there’s those of us in the middle [emoji16]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

i had a bigger 30 ft WW new in 2007. it was loaded....34k new. i bet this trailer was 22-24k new. so honestly the price seems right given the age and its not a highly desirable trailer being that small.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Dam everyone is rich but me I guess. What do all these people do that can afford to pay 100k cash for toys?

There is a lot of people with a lot of cash out there.

Remember when everyone said you need to make $200K or you were poor and you said you guess you were poor? I'm not poking fun at you, I'm just saying those people exist.. a lot of them.

There are legions of people that spend $25K/year on sports for their kids. They aren't footing those bills on a credit card or a HELOC. They are cash flowing it.

2 seasons of no sports, and no $30K family vacation for a year or two and you have $80-$100K in cash sitting there.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

There's a lot of people with a lot more liquid money than you would expect in havasu...lot of business owners, generational wealth etc.

This.. and the same goes for So Cal. People wonder why housing is getting so expensive, it because people with money can afford to buy.

 

[Raffit78]

When it comes to wakeboard boats, I like to use onlyinboards.com to gauge what the market is doing. If you simply search for “all boats” it gives you an overall number of boats listed.

It was on the 400-700’s all year till July 4th. Today it’s at 1256, seems like right after the major holiday people are off loading, most are staying on the market longer then a month. it was hours and days before.

 

[WTR&PWR]

There is a lot of people with a lot of cash out there.

Remember when everyone said you need to make $200K or you were poor and you said you guess you were poor? I'm not poking fun at you, I'm just saying those people exist.. a lot of them.

There are legions of people that spend $25K/year on sports for their kids. They aren't footing those bills on a credit card or a HELOC. They are cash flowing it.

2 seasons of no sports, and no $30K family vacation for a year or two and you have $80-$100K in cash sitting there.

I think that may be a few but I think there are a lot more folks that “refi til they die” and that’s where their cash comes from. Discipline isn’t very common from the people I know. I am the cheap ass to them because I save and pay cash.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I think that may be a few but I think there are a lot more folks that “refi til they die” and that’s where their cash comes from. Discipline isn’t very common from the people I know. I am the cheap ass to them because I save and pay cash.

Sure those people exist, but they aren't pulling $100K out of their house every other year. The equity isn't limitless. And again, everything is fine for them as long as they have a job.

 

[rivermobster]

There are always deals out there. You just have to look where others aren’t, be patient and have a little luck. You are not going to find many deals on Str8up Toy Trader, FB marketplace, etc.

For our friends I found a 4 seat RZR 1000 with 150 miles on it in the height of the desert season this year for $18k. I found myself a fully trimmed out enclosed trailer for $8k this spring. You just have to be ready with cash when these deals come up.

Why would anyone think 9k for a 22ft, 12year old pos WW is a deal??

: scratching head:

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Why would anyone think 9k for a 22ft, 12year old pos WW is a deal??

: scratching head:

Honestly it looks pretty clean and was probably stored indoors. If it was as clean as it looks and you got them down a bit on the price, it’s not bad.

For someone that wanted a river crash pad in a spot at the beachcomber or Islander, it could work excellent! Throw another AC on it and it would stay live able in the summer.

 

[rivermobster]

Honestly it looks pretty clean and was probably stored indoors. If it was as clean as it looks and you got them down a bit on the price, it’s not bad.

For someone that wanted a river crash pad in a spot at the beachcomber or Islander, it could work excellent!

I'm thinkn 5k max...

Did it even have AC? Good luck keeping it cool in the summer in Havasu!

 

[traquer]

Many have more money in the bank than ever, and are now actively spending it.

It's not hard to spend money lol.. A few 4 figure checks here, a 6 figure check there. Adds up quick. Then what

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I'm thinkn 5k max...

Did it even have AC? Good luck keeping it cool in the summer in Havasu!

You can barely get an open trailer for $5k right now. A new enclosed wooden box trailer is $8k before tax and fees.

It has one AC on top. 2 ACs would make it liveable until the sun went down.. then you’d be fine.

And the asking price is not the sale price..

With RE the way it is now, people can sit at home and cross their arms waiting for another 2008 that won’t happen for another decade plus, or go enjoy life.

 

[attitude]

What caused people to start losing their jobs in 07-08?

 

[traquer]

They’re all on 84 month loans so they’ve got time still.

Edit: 240 month for the Malibu

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Wow that's 20 years. It makes (somewhat) sense on an ocean boat that you can go partners in and write it off as a real estate rental or business expense, but a surfboat? People are dumb.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

It's not hard to spend money lol.. A few 4 figure checks here, a 6 figure check there. Adds up quick. Then what

Then you have a bunch of shit paid off and don’t have a payment tied to it...

That’s what I’m saying about the cash out refi people. It is not a limitless stream of money. They make a purchase or two and the cash is gone.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

What caused people to start losing their jobs in 07-08?

Economic slowdown and contraction. The fall took almost 2 years. It’s not like we woke up one day and the bottom fell out. It may seem that way, but there was a long lead up.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Wow that's 20 years. It makes (somewhat) sense on an ocean boat that you can go partners in and write it off as a real estate rental or business expense, but a surfboat? People are dumb.

No, they have no intention of keeping it that long. Use it for a few years and sell it. The boat is just like an appliance, leasing a car, or trading up a phone every few years.

 

[El Rojo]

What caused people to start losing their jobs in 07-08?

Banks stopped lending money...

 

[attitude]

Economic slowdown and contraction. The fall took almost 2 years. It’s not like we woke up one day and the bottom fell out. It may seem that way, but there was a long lead up.

But what caused the slowdown and contraction? I know you and a lot of people say we’re are fine until people start losing their jobs, but losing jobs is caused by something first.

 

[BHC Vic]

What caused people to start losing their jobs in 07-08?

Basically panic. People stated panicking and pulling all their money. The market crash. It’s was the opposite of trickle down at that point. When big money stops spending jobs dry up. Imo trickle down really is a thing.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

But what caused the slowdown and contraction? I know you and a lot of people say we’re are fine until people start losing their jobs, but losing jobs is caused by something first.

The tightening of money lending was probably the root cause, and that started in 05-06. Sub Prime lending collapsed in 06 and that snowballed.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Basically panic. People stated panicking and pulling all their money. The market crash. It’s was the opposite of trickle down at that point. When big money stops spending jobs dry up. Imo trickle down really is a thing.

No it STARTED way before that. The panic was the reaction in 08. The problems started surfacing in 05-06. People started realizing all the mortgages that had 0 money down on weren't gonna be paid, and the markets had built a derivative stream off of those mortgages. Banks also said oh shit we got too much hanging out there at the same time, stopped lending, that slowed economic growth, and down we went.

 

[Ace in the Hole]

Banks stopped lending money...

This....and it's starting to happen again. Access to capital is a major issue.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

This....and it's starting to happen again. Access to capital is a major issue.

And everything else is completely different this time around, so it is unrealistic to expect the same result.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Most of all that was precipitated by BAD economic and monetary policy at the government level. Couple that with massive money printing and budget deficits. Absent all that, there wouldnt have been an economic crash

And none of that is ever going to change. If the policies were all sound and textbook econ 101, we would also be at Dow 10000 today. Ride the wave up, double down on the crash and back up you go.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Perhaps. The purchasing power of the dollar wouldn't have gone in the toilet either

It wouldn't matter, wed be using the Yuan.

 

[Racey]

Before all of derivatives took a shit you had negative equity developing on these properties. People were paying way over realistic values thinking they were gonna flip, and keep climbing the ladder, but eventually they couldn't sell because they owed more than the sale price would be.

 

[EmpirE231]

Before all of derivatives took a shit you had negative equity developing on these properties. People were paying way over realistic values thinking they were gonna flip, and keep climbing the ladder, but eventually they couldn't sell because they owed more than the sale price would be.

kinda like right now?

 

[EmpirE231]

No it STARTED way before that. The panic was the reaction in 08. The problems started surfacing in 05-06. People started realizing all the mortgages that had 0 money down on weren't gonna be paid, and the markets had built a derivative stream off of those mortgages. Banks also said oh shit we got too much hanging out there at the same time, stopped lending, that slowed economic growth, and down we went.

it happened fairly quick... housing started to decline late 2007, bear stearns march 2008, stock market crash sept 2008. Yeah everyone knew in 2006 that shit was wild.... kinda like what everyone is saying about the last year.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

it happened fairly quick... housing started to decline late 2007, bear stearns march 2008, stock market crash sept 2008. Yeah everyone knew in 2006 that shit was wild.... kinda like what everyone is saying about the last year.

Subprime fell apart mid 06. The big players got wiped out then. I know because me and around 40k of my closest friends were laid off Housing was on the decline from mid 06 on, it just accelerated 07 into 08. Any way you slice it, 07 was a down year. The bottom just didn’t fall out. We fell the last 3 stories down a 10 story building.

 

[BHC Vic]

No it STARTED way before that. The panic was the reaction in 08. The problems started surfacing in 05-06. People started realizing all the mortgages that had 0 money down on weren't gonna be paid, and the markets had built a derivative stream off of those mortgages. Banks also said oh shit we got too much hanging out there at the same time, stopped lending, that slowed economic growth, and down we went.

Would everything have crashed if people wouldn’t have panicked and pulled their money basically crashing the market? I think it was just the perfect storm. I’m still pretty new to the market but I see what panic can do and very quickly.

 

[Racey]

Caused by government regulation encouraging very loose lending standards to people that would never qualify for loans. Among many other BAD things

100%, laxed lending standards, low or zero downs, low rates.

 

[NicPaus]

I bought 1 similar 08 super light 5 or 6 years ago for 5k. Had to put tires on it. Was a heavy trailer for how small it was. Some might remember my posts about my friends lifted f250 with 6.7 only getting like 5mpg towing it. I sold it for $8500 a year or so later. Price seems fair considering the price of a new toyhauler.

I had a 26' 04 toyhauler I bought new. It was 20k plus fees show special. Same trailer now is 47k or more.

 

[Racey]

Would everything have crashed if people wouldn’t have panicked and pulled their money basically crashing the market? I think it was just the perfect storm. I’m still pretty new to the market but I see what panic can do and very quickly.

Since there wasn't enough demand to hold the property prices above their loan values, yes it would have still been bad.

 

[NicPaus]

Caused by government regulation encouraging very loose lending standards to people that would never qualify for loans. Among many other BAD things

Yep. The houses I built in 05 one buyer was and still is the bus boy at Rudy's in old Torrance. The other made 12$ a hour. 1 house sold for $759K one for 770K. The 770k one foreclosed and sold for 430k buyer just sold it a month or so ago for $825K. They listed it for high 7s 3 different times in last 5 years. Finally surpassed 05 boom price.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Would everything have crashed if people wouldn’t have panicked and pulled their money basically crashing the market? I think it was just the perfect storm. I’m still pretty new to the market but I see what panic can do and very quickly.

Panic accelerated it for sure, but the derivatives on all the delinquent mortgages were putting downward pressures on everything. And with housing/loan values out of whack with valuations, it was inevitable.

 

[WTR&PWR]

Subprime fell apart mid 06. The big players got wiped out then. I know because me and around 40k of my closest friends were laid off Housing was on the decline from mid 06 on, it just accelerated 07 into 08. Any way you slice it, 07 was a down year. The bottom just didn’t fall out. We fell the last 3 stories down a 10 story building.

What industry were you in?

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

What industry were you in?

I was in IT Systems Administrator for Ameriquest at the time. #2 subprime mortgage lender in the country and biggest privately held company in the country.

Employees were getting nervous in late 06, they had huge seminars are trotted out these executives that showed us graphs with no numbers that showed a downturn in 06 with a dotted line of their projected "wave of refi" because people had to get out of their ARMs... They laid off 95% of the company a couple months later.

 

[JUSTWANNARACE]

When the lumber prices come back down, which is going to happen here soon. People that have bought a new homes in the last 6mo are going to be fukt. They wont see positive equity for a long time. They will be paying for years just to get their house to market value.

 

[rivermobster]

You can barely get an open trailer for $5k right now. A new enclosed wooden box trailer is $8k before tax and fees.

It has one AC on top. 2 ACs would make it liveable until the sun went down.. then you’d be fine.

And the asking price is not the sale price..

With RE the way it is now, people can sit at home and cross their arms waiting for another 2008 that won’t happen for another decade plus, or go enjoy life.

New is a whole lot different than an over a decade old WW. Not to mention that old trailer is gonna need a whole bunch of repairs and maintenance, even if it was stored inside. 9k is no deal IMHO. But, if you HAVE to have it...

It is a sellers market for sure.

 

[boatdoc55]

There is a lot of people with a lot of cash out there.

Remember when everyone said you need to make $200K or you were poor and you said you guess you were poor? I'm not poking fun at you, I'm just saying those people exist.. a lot of them.

There are legions of people that spend $25K/year on sports for their kids. They aren't footing those bills on a credit card or a HELOC. They are cash flowing it.

2 seasons of no sports, and no $30K family vacation for a year or two and you have $80-$100K in cash sitting there.

And MOST of the people spending 25K a year on kids sports are of the wrong color to get into the big shows!!!!!!!!

 

[hallett21]

When the lumber prices come back down, which is going to happen here soon. People that have bought a new homes in the last 6mo are going to be fukt. They wont see positive equity for a long time. They will be paying for years just to get their house to market value.

I think that depends on location.

Build cost could be $450-550 per square ft. But if properties sell for $650+ psf then they’ll just make less profit.

Edit. Also it won’t matter if they plan on living there 5-10 years.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Doc]

Caused by government regulation encouraging very loose lending standards to people that would never qualify for loans. Among many other BAD things

This right here, arm loans killed it. Stated income and almost nothing down got you into a low payment loan for first 3-5-7 years. Once the first term expired your loan payment shot up way beyond what people could afford. Bank's didn't think market would crash at all and they got greedy writing as many loans as they could. To top it off they would insure these loans through AIG. You had waves of groups of loans which were expiring and banks were getting hit with non payments from home owners. Their stocks tanked so fast they couldn't keep up. So they semi froze credit via cards Helocs ect. Gov forced some of them to buy each other out depending on their balance sheets to help ease the pain. Then they ended up bailing them all out which they never used the money for that.

 

[Your ad here]

Few things I see when people panic. Their decision making becomes even more emotional and they buy high and sell low.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

New is a whole lot different than an over a decade old WW. Not to mention that old trailer is gonna need a whole bunch of repairs and maintenance, even if it was stored inside. 9k is no deal IMHO. But, if you HAVE to have it...

It is a sellers market for sure.

A new version of that is close to $30k.

Who knows what they would actually take, asking price for toys right now is not the market price.

They are all shitboxes but I haven't seen another one recently that was that nice. A 5K one usually looks like vagrants have been living in it.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Mr orange has a meeting every morning with Jim Kramer 2024 3 years to regroup your financial stability be wise