Is the sky falling????

[2FORCEFULL]

how can tis be possible????


2008 weekend warrior - rvs - by owner - vehicle automotive sale (craigslist.org)

 

[2FORCEFULL]

I'm starting to see stuff that I thought would sell I one day hang around, then see where they dropped the price....????

 

[DWC]

Don’t know about falling but got a text on a Raptor price drop today. Lowest price on a lower mileage truck than I’ve seen in awhile. They did low ball the trade-in which leveled it out a bit.

 

[LC925]

Wow that’s a good find. Lol just sent it to a group chat In Case some wants something small but doesn’t want to spend much.

 

[Pivot]

One good find doesnt mean sky is falling.
People running around saying the sky is falling is what makes it fall

The warrior probably weighs 15000lb dry

 

[2FORCEFULL]

Wow that’s a good find. Lol just sent it to a group chat In Case some wants something small but doesn’t want to spend much.

I was looking at it compared to a 22' car hauller empty.... they want 8 k for those,... I read here where it's a 4500 up grade to add just a bath...

 

[Ace in the Hole]

The drop will be triggered by the payment prince's who can't keep up.

 

[Backlash]

There was a member looking for something like this in the last few days. Cant remember who though!

 

[2FORCEFULL]

One good find doesnt mean sky is falling.
People running around saying the sky is falling is what makes it fall

The warrior probably weighs 15000lb dry

do they sell by the lb...?????

 

[2FORCEFULL]

how bout' this hallett???? super clean low hrs,... it might be sold, but pretty cheep for now days prices... I figured it would have sold as fast as the owner hit post!!!! maybe the dollar is making a come back????


1995 Hallett 270 - Closed Bow - boats - by owner - marine sale (craigslist.org)

 

[2FORCEFULL]

guess I spoke too soon,... better hurry before this ones gone...


2017 Eclipse Stellar Pro Lite 27FSG - rvs - by owner - vehicle... (craigslist.org)

 

[2FORCEFULL]

One good find doesnt mean sky is falling.
People running around saying the sky is falling is what makes it fall

The warrior probably weighs 15000lb dry

my guess is around 8000

 

[2FORCEFULL]

this would be perfect for rds play house for the kids

2008 weekend warrior - rvs - by owner - vehicle automotive sale (craigslist.org)

 

[HALLETT BOY]

Banks are closing / and or limiting lines of credit . People with great credit are being informed their credit line is closed . Somethings coming …

 

[Ace in the Hole]

Banks are closing / and or limiting lines of credit . People with great credit are being informed their credit line is closed . Somethings coming …

The investment banks are also reducing borrowing against capital from accounts..

 

[Outdrive1]

One good find doesnt mean sky is falling.
People running around saying the sky is falling is what makes it fall

The warrior probably weighs 15000lb dry[emoji16]

So you need an F150 to tow it?


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[RogerThat99]

Banks are closing / and or limiting lines of credit . People with great credit are being informed their credit line is closed . Somethings coming …

I just saw that Wells Fargo is closing ALL personal lines of credit. They claim they can better serve their customers with credit cards.

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[LargeOrangeFont]

There are always deals out there. You just have to look where others aren’t, be patient and have a little luck. You are not going to find many deals on Str8up Toy Trader, FB marketplace, etc.

For our friends I found a 4 seat RZR 1000 with 150 miles on it in the height of the desert season this year for $18k. I found myself a fully trimmed out enclosed trailer for $8k this spring. You just have to be ready with cash when these deals come up.

 

[LuauLounge]

I just saw that Wells Fargo is closing ALL personal lines of credit. They claim they can better serve their customers with credit cards.

The only people WF are serving is themselves.
Why would you loan money at 5% when you can get 15% or more?

 

[SoCalDave]

Fuk WF...

 

[CLdrinker]

The drop will be triggered by the payment prince's who can't keep up.

Exactly.


What goes up must come down. It’s just a matter of when.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Exactly.


What goes up must come down. It’s just a matter of when.

Wake me when those people start loosing their jobs.

 

[CLdrinker]

Wake me when those people start loosing their jobs.

So things will continue on this same path then? Consumer spending will stay on this same pace?

How?

 

[BHC Vic]

Wake me when those people start loosing their jobs.

They are starting to. Unemployment still pays extra 300 till September though. We’ll see what happens when that’s done.

 

[c_land]

So things will continue on this same path then? Consumer spending will stay on this same pace?

How?

Wait for the fed to begin removing eight trillion from their balance sheet. Then the fun begins.

 

[LazyLavey]

These inflated prices have enticed opportunist to sell autos, boats and such and are now starting to flood the market with inventory.. got to come down soon...

 

[hallett21]

What should that trailer be selling for? 22ft toy hauler seems kind of small. And it’s 13 years old. I imagine there’s some maintenance coming up?

The Hallett is under powered IMO. Clean gel but closed bows are less popular. Judging by the steering wheel anodizing it probably needs some things cleaned up. 45k seems fair for what it is?

Doesn’t look like the sky is falling so much as prices are currently not inflated 2x.

Doesn’t really matter either way. People who are waiting for the economy to tank keep cheering for it to nose dive so they can buy up everything.

Those who over leveraged are cheering for the economy to keep on chugging upward.

And then there’s those of us in the middle [emoji16]


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[LargeOrangeFont]

So things will continue on this same path then? Consumer spending will stay on this same pace?

How?

Until people lose their jobs yes. People were locked up for 18 months saving money. Many have more money in the bank than ever, and are now actively spending it.

The only thing that stops people from making a payment is loosing their job/source of income.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

What should that trailer be selling for? 22ft toy hauler seems kind of small. And it’s 13 years old. I imagine there’s some maintenance coming up?

The Hallett is under powered IMO. Clean gel but closed bows are less popular. Judging by the steering wheel anodizing it probably needs some things cleaned up. 45k seems fair for what it is?

Doesn’t look like the sky is falling so much as prices are currently not inflated 2x.

Doesn’t really matter either way. People who are waiting for the economy to tank keep cheering for it to nose dive so they can buy up everything.

Those who over leveraged are cheering for the economy to keep on chugging upward.

And then there’s those of us in the middle [emoji16]


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Agreed on all counts.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Wait for the fed to begin removing eight trillion from their balance sheet. Then the fun begins.

Everything possible will be done to keep the fun going until 2024.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

They are starting to. Unemployment still pays extra 300 till September though. We’ll see what happens when that’s done.

Yep. Building is gonna start to cool off I’m sure. RE seems to be leveling off a bit as well.

 

[CLdrinker]

Until people lose their jobs yes. People were locked up for 18 months saving money. Many have more money in the bank than ever, and are now actively spending it.

The only thing that stops people from making a payment is loosing their job/source of income.

I agree with allot of what you are saying. But I know allot of people are spending more per month because they are working from home. And not spending on fuel. When they go back to commuting that $4 gallon fuel is hurting on some folks. Not saying this will be a huge issue more of a contributing factor.
Also interest rates have been dirt cheap for a very long time. How much longer is that going to last?

People use their homes and credit cards to get buy, when they can’t get cheap money spending will start slowing.
Again not a huge issue just another contributing factor.

I’m not claiming a crash is coming at all. Allot of people learned their lesson in 2008. But a pull back is inevitable.

 

[BHC Vic]

Yep. Building is gonna start to cool off I’m sure. RE seems to be leveling off a bit as well.

I don’t think we are going to see prices tank. I just think we will see less bidding wars and less over asking offers. I don’t think we are going to be picking things up at a steal yet

 

[2Driver]

The peak craziness seems to be behind us. I think it will take rates going up and normalize supply chain to really put things back to where they were . Then again 6 massive chip factories are being built by Intel and TWSC in the valley.

 

[CLdrinker]

Everything possible will be done to keep the fun going until 2024.

Agreed. Case in point. The child tax credit was given out last year to the person who claimed the child on taxes.
Well many joint custody situations allow parents to alternate who gets the child on taxes each year.

Guess what the government decided? Fuck it send both parents the money!
We got a check in the mail yesterday and we’re like wtf.

One kid 2 stimulus’s!!! Printing machines must be on OT

 

[Ace in the Hole]

Until people lose their jobs yes. People were locked up for 18 months saving money. Many have more money in the bank than ever, and are now actively spending it.

The only thing that stops people from making a payment is loosing their job/source of income.

For "well to do" people, middle class/upperMC yes this is true....for the "working poor," and lower middle class not so much... Cost of living/inflation has skyrocketed in many areas, as have rents.... People in that position are going to secure housing/basics before making car/toy payments.... You will start to see the subprime auto and lower end toy market flood far before the expensive stuff.

I was speaking to a former client the other day...who manages a large portfolio of rentals... Roughly a third haven't paid in a year, close to 60% are 90+ in arrears. The dam is leaking...its not going to burst IMO, but its going to get significantly worse.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I agree with allot of what you are saying. But I know allot of people are spending more per month because they are working from home. And not spending on fuel. When they go back to commuting that $4 gallon fuel is hurting on some folks. Not saying this will be a huge issue more of a contributing factor.
Also interest rates have been dirt cheap for a very long time. How much longer is that going to last?

People use their homes and credit cards to get buy, when they can’t get cheap money spending will start slowing.
Again not a huge issue just another contributing factor.

I’m not claiming a crash is coming at all. Allot of people learned their lesson in 2008. But a pull back is inevitable.

When any of that happens they will sell the toy, not let it get repossessed.

You referenced consumer spending. I believe spending will continue, it always does. The prices on stuff will come back down.

 

[c_land]

The peak craziness seems to be behind us. I think it will take rates going up and normalize supply chain to really put things back to where they were . Then again 6 massive chip factories are being built by Intel and TWSC in the valley.

View attachment 1027612

The supply chain discussion scares me. Hopefully there isn't an overproduction period that leads to an oversupply issue. We don't need a 1929 price collapse right now.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

The peak craziness seems to be behind us. I think it will take rates going up and normalize supply chain to really put things back to where they were . Then again 6 massive chip factories are being built by Intel and TWSC in the valley.

View attachment 1027612

Agreed, RE is calming down.

There is no "going back to where we were". If the last 12 years have taught us anything, it is that "where things should be" is not a thing. Things are where they are.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

The supply chain discussion scares me. Hopefully there isn't an overproduction period that leads to an oversupply issue. We don't need a 1929 price collapse right now.

There might be.. but it seems most industries realize that this is a temporary condition and have not invested in new infrastructure to meet demands.

 

[FROGMAN524]

How about short sales coming up? The guys that buy with nothing down and their Can Am/Malibu/Raptor are all depreciating faster than a rock in a pond? They can sell instead of getting repossessed but still can’t pay off the loan and stop making payments.


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[LargeOrangeFont]

For "well to do" people, middle class/upperMC yes this is true....for the "working poor," and lower middle class not so much... Cost of living/inflation has skyrocketed in many areas, as have rents.... People in that position are going to secure housing/basics before making car/toy payments.... You will start to see the subprime auto and lower end toy market flood far before the expensive stuff.

I was speaking to a former client the other day...who manages a large portfolio of rentals... Roughly a third haven't paid in a year, close to 60% are 90+ in arrears. The dam is leaking...its not going to burst IMO, but its going to get significantly worse.

I agree with you but the working poor don't have trucks or toys that anyone here would want The people working in jobs that they get paid more to sit at home are not going to make or break the economy. The money printing will continue to shore up the conditions you are mentioning and kick the can down the road.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

How about short sales coming up? The guys that buy with nothing down and their Can Am/Malibu/Raptor are all depreciating faster than a rock in a pond? They can sell instead of getting repossessed but still can’t pay off the loan and stop making payments.


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Up to this point none of those items you mention have depreciated if they bought them from 2018- early 2021

 

[CLdrinker]

When any of that happens they will sell the toy, not let it get repossessed.

You referenced consumer spending. I believe spending will continue, it always does. The prices on stuff will come back down.

How can you sell the toy when upside down.
I’m RV shopping right now. The salesman are saying typically it’s all cash purchases or hardly anything down.
To me that says home refi’s and paycheck to paycheck type people.
If you are cashing out equity to buy a depreciating asset that is how you can get upside down on your home with a large payment something happens job wise your fucked. Same for pay check to paycheck folks. Your are balancing your budget on a best case scenario. One hiccup and your fucked.

I don’t think jobs are going anywhere. But is something does happen I think allot of people are set up for big trouble.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

How can you sell the toy when upside down.
I’m RV shopping right now. The salesman are saying typically it’s all cash purchases or hardly anything down.
To me that says home refi’s and paycheck to paycheck type people.
If you are cashing out equity to buy a depreciating asset that is how you can get upside down on your home with a large payment something happens job wise your fucked. Same for pay check to paycheck folks. Your are balancing your budget on a best case scenario. One hiccup and your fucked.

I don’t think jobs are going anywhere. But is something does happen I think allot of people are set up for big trouble.

Like I just said, If you bought from 2018-early 2021 you aren't upside down at this moment.. on any car, truck, toy, or boat.

You are assuming the only people with cash are people that refi'd their house.. that is a false assumption.

And like I said in the beginning.. The hardly anything down people are fine until they lose a source of income.

 

[2Driver]

Well anyone that’s in a house that was constructed during the steel and lumber run up can take 30-50k off of their equity right now as compared to build later this year.

 

[2Driver]

LOL Smart people dont pay cash, they use the equity in their house to get deeper in debt and reduce their overall net worth because in the long run they will come out ahead.

 

[FROGMAN524]

Up to this point none of those items you mention have depreciated if they bought them from 2018- early 2021

They’re all on 84 month loans so they’ve got time still.

Edit: 240 month for the Malibu

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[BHC Vic]

Agreed. Case in point. The child tax credit was given out last year to the person who claimed the child on taxes.
Well many joint custody situations allow parents to alternate who gets the child on taxes each year.

Guess what the government decided? Fuck it send both parents the money!
We got a check in the mail yesterday and we’re like wtf.

One kid 2 stimulus’s!!! Printing machines must be on OT

Damn I have 3 kids but I only got 500 bucks.

 

[CLdrinker]

Like I just said, If you bought from 2018-early 2021 you aren't upside down at this moment.. on any car, truck, toy, or boat.

You are assuming the only people with cash are people that refi'd their house.. that is a false assumption.

And like I said in the beginning.. The hardly anything down people are fine until they lose a source of income.

Dam everyone is rich but me I guess. What do all these people do that can afford to pay 100k cash for toys?