For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[bentprops]

My home in Phoenix took a $15k jump in June. I’ve been waiting for Armageddon.
Last years income was double what I was pulling in in 2018


Where is all this doom and gloom?

says who, Zillow?

How they lie to you.
10, 200k homes 1 1,000K home = 11 homes 3,000,000 total, average sale price, 272k
5, 200k homes, 1 1,000K home = 6 homes sold, 2,000,000 total, average sale price 333K
1, 200K homes , 1 1,000K home = 2 homes sold, 1,200,000 total, average sale price 600K
0, 200K homes, 1 1,000K home = 1 home sold , 1,000,000 total, average sale price 1,000,000

As you can see the price is going up however the total sales volume is way down, Just like the true data shows. The rich have money and they are still buying.
As long as the gov doesn't intervene (stimulate) its going down!

I can explain it to you but i can't understand it for you.

As of now i don't see prices failing in cali or Havasu. At least for the next few months. Just like a race engine doesn't disintegrate, it starts with the weakest point failing but by the time its done not much left is worth a shiz.

 

[Havoc Powesports]

Just got my insurance quote. $2000 a year for home owners insurance including hurricane and wind coverage. I do not need flood as we are not in a flood zone. House is 5.5 miles from the beach which is closer than we thought we would buy, but the wife is happy.

congrats, where about did you buy at?

 

[Orange Juice]

says who, Zillow?

How they lie to you.
10, 200k homes 1 1,000K home = 11 homes 3,000,000 total, average sale price, 272k
5, 200k homes, 1 1,000K home = 6 homes sold, 2,000,000 total, average sale price 333K
1, 200K homes , 1 1,000K home = 2 homes sold, 1,200,000 total, average sale price 600K
0, 200K homes, 1 1,000K home = 1 home sold , 1,000,000 total, average sale price 1,000,000

As you can see the price is going up however the total sales volume is way down, Just like the true data shows. The rich have money and they are still buying.
As long as the gov doesn't intervene (stimulate) its going down!

I can explain it to you but i can't understand it for you.

As of now i don't see prices failing in cali or Havasu. At least for the next few months. Just like a race engine doesn't disintegrate, it starts with the weakest point failing but by the time its done not much left is worth a shiz.
View attachment 1396253 View attachment 1396254

I’ve come to the conclusion it’s a natural transition to multi family housing.

Not everyone can have a 1/4 acre 2100sf house in a big city. That 1/4 acre can house a lot of families if you build upward, and remove those big backyards.

Of coarse, those who own a house or want a house, will pay for that premium.

The entire southeast corner of 24th street and Camelback in Phoenix were beautiful single family homes in the 1980. A developer came in and bought every home in the area. (Blocks), and demolished them. The land became more valuable than the homes on it.

 

[Looking Glass]

I’ve come to the conclusion it’s a natural transition to multi family housing.

Not everyone can have a 1/4 acre 2100sf house in a big city. That 1/4 acre can house a lot of families if you build upward, and remove those big backyards.

Of coarse, those who own a house or want a house, will pay for that premium.

The entire southeast corner of 24th street and Camelback in Phoenix were beautiful single family homes in the 1980. A developer came in and bought every home in the area. (Blocks), and demolished them. The land became more valuable than the homes on it.

Just like in VEGAS, when they decide that A New Casino/Resort needs to be built on a site that already has a Casino, just buy it and waste No Time to "Strip" it of Massive $'s worth of material, but just "IMPLODE" it and move forward.

Time Is Money. "IF" that's the Only Goal, and What Is Important, So Be It. Many feel the Bigger, Newer, Flashier, is so "Over rated" and the older, well built "Classic" is almost priceless.

 

[CarolynandBob]

congrats, where about did you buy at?

Nokomis- Talon Preserve

 

[nameisbond]

Vancouver and the surrounding areas are starting to crack and crumble: https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/fin...p&cvid=756a22e009e84a7686398f5a4ff0c9cf&ei=48

 

[Orange Juice]

Vancouver and the surrounding areas are starting to crack and crumble: https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/finance-real-estate/home-sales-down-inventory-sky-high-for-june-in-metro-vancouver-fraser-valley/ar-BB1plQOZ?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=756a22e009e84a7686398f5a4ff0c9cf&ei=

Probably those California people, looking for the next big dream.

Austin homeowners "screwed" as housing market sales plunge

Sellers in Austin, Texas, cannot expect to offload their properties for as much money as they fetched during the pandemic years, as inventory grows in the city.

www.newsweek.com

 

[nameisbond]

Probably those California people, looking for the next big dream.

Austin homeowners "screwed" as housing market sales plunge

Sellers in Austin, Texas, cannot expect to offload their properties for as much money as they fetched during the pandemic years, as inventory grows in the city.

www.newsweek.com

That is why I'm buying ETFS that short the stock market. When these people realize they don't have cash in their houses. They'll sell off stocks.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Just got my insurance quote. $2000 a year for home owners insurance including hurricane and wind coverage. I do not need flood as we are not in a flood zone. House is 5.5 miles from the beach which is closer than we thought we would buy, but the wife is happy.

Just remember that if you have an outside water intrusion, you won't be covered. Even if not in a flood zone, if it rains enough and it does flood, you won't be covered. The flood insurance isn't much more per year. I would revisit that.

 

[Done-it-again]

Just got my insurance quote. $2000 a year for home owners insurance including hurricane and wind coverage. I do not need flood as we are not in a flood zone. House is 5.5 miles from the beach which is closer than we thought we would buy, but the wife is happy.

That’s hella cheap for Florida

 

[PlanB]

Local news reported this morning that the median home price in San Diego is now just over 1 million.

They also reported that the unemployment rate was the worst it has been since 2021.

 

[CarolynandBob]

Just remember that if you have an outside water intrusion, you won't be covered. Even if not in a flood zone, if it rains enough and it does flood, you won't be covered. The flood insurance isn't much more per year. I would revisit that.

I will check it out. Our friend that has it said her premium is 1300 yr. Yes she is in a flood zone AE.

 

[Orange Juice]

I will check it out. Our friend that has it said her premium is 1300 yr. Yes she is in a flood zone AE.

I’d be sure everything is fully insured for water. At least for the first year or two. Then assess the situation, and talk to neighbors.

 

[Orange Juice]

I will check it out. Our friend that has it said her premium is 1300 yr. Yes she is in a flood zone AE.

I just saw this. 20 inch of rain all at once.

“Florida has just seen a once-in-a-lifetime weather disaster that’s left entire neighborhoods underwater. After being hit by a monster downpour last month – with over 20 inches of rain falling within a week – streets in Hollywood, Miami, and Fort Lauderdale turned into rivers, causing Governor Ron DeSantis to declare a state of emergency.”

 

[zhandfull]

Listed for $430k a year ago and just sold for $320k.

Thats $5k less than it sold for in 2021.

1905 Palmer Dr APT 11, Lake Havasu City, AZ 86406 | Zillow

1905 Palmer Dr Apt 11, Lake Havasu City AZ, is a Condo home that contains 1204 sq ft and was built in 1978.It contains 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms.This home last sold for $320,000 in July 2024. The Zestimate for this Condo is $332,900, which has increased by $1,610 in the last 30 days.The Rent...

www.zillow.com

 

[Orange Juice]

Federal Reserve tomorrow morning. Heard possibly 3 rate cuts in 2024 .

 

[attitude]

Federal Reserve tomorrow morning. Heard possibly 3 rate cuts in 2024 .

Is hurting the economy to possibly help Biden out even worth it at this point? Especially after that last debate lol.

 

[monkeyswrench]

Is hurting the economy to possibly help Biden out even worth it at this point? Especially after that last debate lol.

Honestly, anything they can do to maintain any sort of control, they will do.

Smoke and mirrors, make people think everything is good, because they fail to see their grocery bill and other costs increasing.

 

[2Driver]

says who, Zillow?

How they lie to you.
10, 200k homes 1 1,000K home = 11 homes 3,000,000 total, average sale price, 272k
5, 200k homes, 1 1,000K home = 6 homes sold, 2,000,000 total, average sale price 333K
1, 200K homes , 1 1,000K home = 2 homes sold, 1,200,000 total, average sale price 600K
0, 200K homes, 1 1,000K home = 1 home sold , 1,000,000 total, average sale price 1,000,000

As you can see the price is going up however the total sales volume is way down, Just like the true data shows. The rich have money and they are still buying.
As long as the gov doesn't intervene (stimulate) its going down!

I can explain it to you but i can't understand it for you.

As of now i don't see prices failing in cali or Havasu. At least for the next few months. Just like a race engine doesn't disintegrate, it starts with the weakest point failing but by the time its done not much left is worth a shiz.
View attachment 1396253 View attachment 1396254

I think they do more than averaging in sales prices, but you are correct about it being a rough guesstimate.

The problem isn't with Zillow, its with people thinking Zillow's appraisals are gospel vs what they are, which is a variety of market data applied to a particular house.

I use Zillow all the time as a rough starting point then do my own property specific appraisal based on market, location, condition, age, type of construction etc.

 

[beerrun]

Just got my insurance quote. $2000 a year for home owners insurance including hurricane and wind coverage. I do not need flood as we are not in a flood zone. House is 5.5 miles from the beach which is closer than we thought we would buy, but the wife is happy.

Where are you at can I ask

 

[Orange Juice]

Appears we’re not getting a rate drop this summer?

 

[CarolynandBob]

Where are you at can I ask

We are in Sarasota county. Our new summer place will be in Nokomis, FL - New develpment is called Talon Preserve.

 

[Buddy]

We are in Sarasota county. Our new summer place will be in Nokomis, FL - New develpment is called Talon Preserve.

Curious, what drew you to that specific area?

 

[regor]

Housing Market Cracks: Record Number Of Listed Homes Have Price Drops | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Good piece explaining the downturn.

 

[CarolynandBob]

Curious, what drew you to that specific area?

We have been snow birds at our place in North Sarasota county. When we decided to stop being snow birds and live here full time we started looking into differant developments. A lot of people we know went to a community called Lakewood Ranch. I think it is one of the largest development in the country. It is too far from the beach per my wife. So we started looking to where she likes the beach and she goes paddleboarding a lot. She really likes Nokomis beach and paddleboards on the intercoastal from the jetty there. We started looking in a new area called Wellen Park. After spending time there we thought it might get overbuilt and get to crowded. We drove by Talon Preserve about a 1 and a half years ago. We told our friends moving here from San Diego about it. They bought a house there. Our other friend from San Diego lives just up the street 5 min away. With our friends there and how close it is to the beach my wife likes we decided that would be the best place for us.

 

[zhandfull]

Havasu land prices jump!

 

[bonesfab]

Havasu land prices jump!
View attachment 1400340 View attachment 1400341

thats going to play hell on property taxes.

 

[hallett21]

Joel Collado | Mortgage Broker on Instagram: "Where’s the rest? My daily struggle 🤷‍♂️ #mortgagebroker #realestate #mortgagelife #loanofficerlife #wheresthemoney #firsttimehomebuyers #firsttimehomebuyer #getyourmoneyright #getyourbreadup #houseshop

65K likes, 1,593 comments - joelcollado.mortgage on May 28, 2024: "Where’s the rest? My daily struggle 🤷‍♂️ #mortgagebroker #realestate #mortgagelife #loanofficerlife #wheresthemoney #firsttimehomebuyers #firsttimehomebuyer #getyourmoneyright #getyourbreadup #houseshopping #getpreapproved".

www.instagram.com

 

[regor]

US Existing Home Sales Puked (Again) In July...​

...as median prices rose once again to a new record high.

TUE JUL 23, AT 7:11 AM

 

[thetub]

US Existing Home Sales Puked (Again) In July...​

...as median prices rose once again to a new record high.

TUE JUL 23, AT 7:11 AM


View attachment 1406877

feds in real pickle ... lower rates to 3-4 percent to stimulate sales and inflation takes off again.....

 

[bentprops]

 

[NicPaus]

The market is still crazy here. Although there are some good deals on duplexes and triplex by me. Figure nobody wants to be a landlord in CA with the new regulations. That and the rate makes it hard to be cash flow positive. First time buyers can't qualify for them. If they could it would be a good Long term. Live in 1 unit for 5-10 years then buy a another house and keep the units as rentals.

 

[Tamalewagon]

Just got my insurance quote. $2000 a year for home owners insurance including hurricane and wind coverage. I do not need flood as we are not in a flood zone. House is 5.5 miles from the beach which is closer than we thought we would buy, but the wife is happy.

Just a quick FYI, flood insurance doesn't just cover natural floods. Most regular home owners insurance policies do not cover floods caused by natural disasters, bursting pipes, leaks etc. Flood insurance should cover these issues. I'm not an insurance broker but it is a solid purchase for peace of mind in my opinion.

For all folks that do not believe the rates will come down any time soon, keep a weathered eye on Aug/Sept. The key factors are all lining up.

 

[attitude]

Just a quick FYI, flood insurance doesn't just cover natural floods. Most regular home owners insurance policies do not cover floods caused by natural disasters, bursting pipes, leaks etc. Flood insurance should cover these issues. I'm not an insurance broker but it is a solid purchase for peace of mind in my opinion.

For all folks that do not believe the rates will come down any time soon, keep a weathered eye on Aug/Sept. The key factors are all lining up.

Obviously you are more in tune with rates than I am but from the speculation I’ve seen we might get a half point drop by the end of the year, just enough for the Biden camp to say “look the rates are dropping the economy is back on track” A half point won’t change affordability however.

 

[Havasu blue label]

5 percent loans are out there it will cost a little bit

 

[Tamalewagon]

Obviously you are more in tune with rates than I am but from the speculation I’ve seen we might get a half point drop by the end of the year, just enough for the Biden camp to say “look the rates are dropping the economy is back on track” A half point won’t change affordability however.

Some of it might be political but he cannot persuade all of the FED chairs to lower rates. The FED lowering their rate is tied directly to car loans, credit cards, HELOCs etc. but NOT 1st mortgage rates. There is admittedly a trickle down effect but the rates are directly tied to the bond markets. That said, the FED will make several cuts over the next year, the first of which should be within 45-60 days. The unemployment stats and cooling inflation are the driving factors. Cooling inflation and higher unemployment will have the desired effects for lower mortgage rates. Like I said...keep a weathered eye on August/Sept for the first of many. The half-point will do quite a bit to drive people off the fence. Those sitting on the fence right now instead of making their purchase are jumping over the dollars to pick up the nickels waiting for rates to fall. The math isn't on their side and math doesn't lie. Marry the house, not the rate. You can always refinance to a lower rate when the time comes but you can't collect equity if you are sitting on the fence.

 

[Done-it-again]

Some of it might be political but he cannot persuade all of the FED chairs to lower rates. The FED lowering their rate is tied directly to car loans, credit cards, HELOCs etc. but NOT 1st mortgage rates. There is admittedly a trickle down effect but the rates are directly tied to the bond markets. That said, the FED will make several cuts over the next year, the first of which should be within 45-60 days. The unemployment stats and cooling inflation are the driving factors. Cooling inflation and higher unemployment will have the desired effects for lower mortgage rates. Like I said...keep a weathered eye on August/Sept for the first of many. The half-point will do quite a bit to drive people off the fence. Those sitting on the fence right now instead of making their purchase are jumping over the dollars to pick up the nickels waiting for rates to fall. The math isn't on their side and math doesn't lie. Marry the house, not the rate. You can always refinance to a lower rate when the time comes but you can't collect equity if you are sitting on the fence.

The refi market will go crazy, but I see home prices go back up do to lower rates...

 

[NicPaus]

The refi market will go crazy, but I see home prices go back up do to lower rates...

Here the house prices have not dropped. So it's a gamble. And who knows. But if the rates drop will the house prices go even higher?

I know a few that are sitting on a couple houses. And debating sell now or hold. I am holding. But could use more housing for my crews. So I plan to add a few adus and be in it for the long run.

 

[attitude]

Some of it might be political but he cannot persuade all of the FED chairs to lower rates. The FED lowering their rate is tied directly to car loans, credit cards, HELOCs etc. but NOT 1st mortgage rates. There is admittedly a trickle down effect but the rates are directly tied to the bond markets. That said, the FED will make several cuts over the next year, the first of which should be within 45-60 days. The unemployment stats and cooling inflation are the driving factors. Cooling inflation and higher unemployment will have the desired effects for lower mortgage rates. Like I said...keep a weathered eye on August/Sept for the first of many. The half-point will do quite a bit to drive people off the fence. Those sitting on the fence right now instead of making their purchase are jumping over the dollars to pick up the nickels waiting for rates to fall. The math isn't on their side and math doesn't lie. Marry the house, not the rate. You can always refinance to a lower rate when the time comes but you can't collect equity if you are sitting on the fence.

The only people I see a rate drop being back in the market is existing home owners. First time buyers a half point means nothing, affordability is key. The median sales price for new builds is in the tank and its not uncommon for a builder to offer a 5% rate.

Everyone that I know that can afford a house has bought one knowing they can refi at a later date, it’s the people who cant afford to purchase their first home that are on the side lines.

 

[HNL2LHC]

The only people I see a rate drop being back in the market is existing home owners. First time buyers a half point means nothing, affordability is key. The median sales price for new builds is in the tank and its not uncommon for a builder to offer a 5% rate.

Everyone that I know that can afford a house has bought one knowing they can refi at a later date, it’s the people who cant afford to purchase their first home that are on the side lines.

Don’t worry as you have to remember…..people who don’t own anything will be happy. Then add big boobs into the mix, crochet tops or not, life will be grand. Even more so if you are a Swifty.

 

[Tamalewagon]

The refi market will go crazy, but I see home prices go back up do to lower rates...

What you will especially see is tens of thousands of people entering the market that were not able to do so before. The competition for homes will be steep!

 

[Done-it-again]

Here the house prices have not dropped. So it's a gamble. And who knows. But if the rates drop will the house prices go even higher?

I know a few that are sitting on a couple houses. And debating sell now or hold. I am holding. But could use more housing for my crews. So I plan to add a few adus and be in it for the long run.

The housing in my parents neighborhood in Rancho Cucamonga hasn't either, all the houses that listed go from more than asking in a month. I'm across the boarder in Fontana and well we are not as lucky. At least we are "North" Fontana near mountains...lol

 

[JL95]

One of our builders in Irvine said his one community sold out through phase 5. It's done more $$$ than the whole Arizona division lol.

 

[Done-it-again]

What you will especially see is tens of thousands of people entering the market that were not able to do so before. The competition for homes will be steep!

Agree and good for them. I'm just working on exiting and could be out of here by this time next year.

 

[SOCALCRICKETT]

5 percent loans are out there it will cost a little bit

I closed in the 19th at 5.75% on a fixed 30

 

[BHC Vic]

I dunno my 2.8 on 20 feels pretty good these days. I guess we just aren’t going anywhere. As far as inflation and unemployment I guess you would have to believe what your being told and not what you see with your own eyes

 

[angiebaby]

Most regular home owners insurance policies do not cover floods caused by natural disasters, bursting pipes, leaks etc.

So what does it cover? State Farm covered my parents' laundry room leak a couple of years ago. I'm not sure what other kind of water damage there would be other than leaks, bursting pipes, or natural disasters.

And if insurance companies don't cover natural disasters, then why do they cry poor every time there is a natural disaster?

Because we lived in a historic flood plain in Reno, we had to have flood insurance and it was ONLY for natural disaster. It can only be purchased through FEMA.

 

[NicPaus]

So what does it cover? State Farm covered my parents' laundry room leak a couple of years ago. I'm not sure what other kind of water damage there would be other than leaks, bursting pipes, or natural disasters.

And if insurance companies don't cover natural disasters, then why do they cry poor every time there is a natural disaster?

Because we lived in a historic flood plain in Reno, we had to have flood insurance and it was ONLY for natural disaster. It can only be purchased through FEMA.

There was a sink hole in Palos Verdes not long ago. Few houses lost. Insurance wouldn't cover them as they didn't have flood insurance. Broken water main was possible cause. Never heard the final results. But a older couple in there 80s lost there house. And didn't have flood insurance. They lived on the hill.

 

[X Hoser]

I closed in the 19th at 5.75% on a fixed 30

What was your buy down, (points), for 5.75%? Was it a 30 year loan? Sorry for all of the questions but I’m looking at a piece of property I want to buy and hoping the rates are coming down. If you don’t mind sharing the info, PM me. I’d appreciate it.

 

[Mandelon]

So what does it cover? State Farm covered my parents' laundry room leak a couple of years ago. I'm not sure what other kind of water damage there would be other than leaks, bursting pipes, or natural disasters.

And if insurance companies don't cover natural disasters, then why do they cry poor every time there is a natural disaster?

Because we lived in a historic flood plain in Reno, we had to have flood insurance and it was ONLY for natural disaster. It can only be purchased through FEMA.

Your normal home insurance should cover broken pipes. The flood insurance that is extra is for actual floods. Like from major rain events. I have a triplex that backs up to a storm channel, they force me to buy specific flood insurance above and beyond the usual homeowner's policy.