For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[monkeyswrench]

I dunno my 2.8 on 20 feels pretty good these days. I guess we just aren’t going anywhere. As far as inflation and unemployment I guess you would have to believe what your being told and not what you see with your own eyes

You're in a good spot with your pad then. The inflation deal is BS though. Their numbers don't jive with reality. That reality is most apparent with a family. The cost of food, fuel and electricity has gone up substantially. Fixed income elderly people are hurting, and lower income people with kids are seeing it as well.

 

[Tamalewagon]

So what does it cover? State Farm covered my parents' laundry room leak a couple of years ago. I'm not sure what other kind of water damage there would be other than leaks, bursting pipes, or natural disasters.

And if insurance companies don't cover natural disasters, then why do they cry poor every time there is a natural disaster?

Because we lived in a historic flood plain in Reno, we had to have flood insurance and it was ONLY for natural disaster. It can only be purchased through FEMA.

That's a good questions for insurance brokers. I'm just going off my general knowledge of insurance policies that we have experience with when it comes to our clients. Perhaps your parents had flood insurance with their policy. Our current insurance policy does not cover water damage and my insurance broker advised that I must get a flood policy to cover leaks, floods etc.

 

[Tamalewagon]

Agree and good for them. I'm just working on exiting and could be out of here by this time next year.

Lucky you. We have extensively thought about moving but family, kids, friends are here. When the kids are all out of college and settled, we hope to pull that trigger as well.

 

[Cole Trickle]

So what does it cover? State Farm covered my parents' laundry room leak a couple of years ago. I'm not sure what other kind of water damage there would be other than leaks, bursting pipes, or natural disasters.

And if insurance companies don't cover natural disasters, then why do they cry poor every time there is a natural disaster?

Because we lived in a historic flood plain in Reno, we had to have flood insurance and it was ONLY for natural disaster. It can only be purchased through FEMA.

Homeowners insurance covers standard water losses. Slab leaks, busted pipes, rain through the roof or backed up toilets or drains are all covered.

Homeowners does not cover floods or water rising events that come up into the house from outside that's what flood coverage is for.

I would say that 80%++ of the losses I see in Orange County and the major reason the market is a mess are water losses. (Slab leaks and busted pipes)

South OC plumbing is failing at an incredible rate and people don't maintain there houses anymore and very few people are handy enough to even turn off the water main these days. I see more claims in a week today then we used to see in a quarter 20 years ago.

 

[Done-it-again]

Lucky you. We have extensively thought about moving but family, kids, friends are here. When the kids are all out of college and settled, we hope to pull that trigger as well.

Its been years working on it off and on and have the same issues with family and the business. My parents are out too, still buy something smaller in CA cause of my sister but spending more time in FL. I just need to pull the trigger and let the chips fall were they may, I'm not the biggest risk taker.

 

[NicPaus]

Same here in the Southbay. That's why there are hundreds of new water restoration and plumbing companies.

A customer recently purchased a new to them house. Insurance company said show proof of repipe or install a automatic water shut off device within 2 weeks or get dropped. Imagine that will become the norm with insurance. I got hit with the new roof or be dropped along with my Brother.


We just repiped a house last week that had its 5th pin hole. I told them not to make a claim. To avoid being dropped.

 

[hallett21]

What will Jerome do today???

 

[Runs2rch]

What will Jerome do today???

Either way shit is fucked still.

 

[Done-it-again]

What will Jerome do today???

Keeping status quo today, next meeting rates will lower. Gives an election bump for the dems.

 

[EmpirE231]

Intel cutting 15% of jobs

Intel to cut 15% jobs, suspend dividend in turnaround push

-Intel said on Thursday it would cut more than 15% of its workforce and suspend its dividend starting in the fourth quarter as the chipmaker pursues a turnaround centered around its loss-making manufacturing business. The stock had closed down 7% on Thursday, in tandem with U.S. chip stocks...

finance.yahoo.com

Nissan Q1 profits down 99%

Nissan's Q1 profit plunges 99% as US discounts shred margins

STORY: Nissan slashed its annual outlook Thursday after reporting a 99% plunge in first-quarter profits.That’s as deep discounting in the U.S. shredded the Japanese automaker’s margins. Nissan’s shares fell following the results, which were far short of analyst expectations.Operating profit for...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Mortgage rates are on a nice downward trend and loan activity is picking up

 

[BigQ]

What will Jerome do today???

.25 Sept, 1 in 2025, 1 in 2026 at least that's the current plan.

 

[DWC]

.25 Sept, 1 in 2025, 1 in 2026 at least that's the current plan.

Think of the bump they’ll get when the cuts are larger than expected..
Well played Dems, well played.

 

[c_land]

Think of the bump they’ll get when the cuts are larger than expected..
Well played Dems, well played.

Payrolls and unemployment had big misses this morning. Lots of discussion related to the SAHM rule now, September may be too little too late to avoid a recession.

They consequences of dems fiscal irresponsibility forced inflation higher and forced the Fed to tighten this far. I give Democrats 0 credit for planning anything, they are still as dumb as ever.

 

[JDKRXW]

To me, this is a big warning sign the economy is teetering on the edge of bad things;

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/08/01/intel-layoffs-chips/

 

[bentprops]

Ok finally seeing what i have been waiting for. The huge piece of the puzzle, "CA". The foreign investment is finally drying up. The multi decade china buyers / holders are becoming sellers.

Blackrock selling in FL, this could be the start of something major.

 

[bentprops]

Payrolls and unemployment had big misses this morning. Lots of discussion related to the SAHM rule now, September may be too little too late to avoid a recession.

They consequences of dems fiscal irresponsibility forced inflation higher and forced the Fed to tighten this far. I give Democrats 0 credit for planning anything, they are still as dumb as ever.

Dumb? More like geniuses seeing how this is excatly what they want. Bigger and more powerful Gov and the rest of us having less. Repuckican and democraps are just 2 wings of the same bird. Wake up! its the gov of the world verses the people. Your pink haired neighbor is not your enemy. Sorry to say trump is not going to save you.

 

[Havasu blue label]

To me, this is a big warning sign the economy is teetering on the edge of bad things;

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/08/01/intel-layoffs-chips/

Smart man

 

[JL95]

IDK go to orange county and the chinese are still majority buyers it seems. Hell one guy last month parked $10M cash in two KB homes tract houses lmao.

 

[evantwheeler]

To me, this is a big warning sign the economy is teetering on the edge of bad things;

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/08/01/intel-layoffs-chips/

Ooofff. I own some INTC, glad its not a lot.

 

[DWC]

Homeowners insurance covers standard water losses. Slab leaks, busted pipes, rain through the roof or backed up toilets or drains are all covered.

Homeowners does not cover floods or water rising events that come up into the house from outside that's what flood coverage is for.

I would say that 80%++ of the losses I see in Orange County and the major reason the market is a mess are water losses. (Slab leaks and busted pipes)

South OC plumbing is failing at an incredible rate and people don't maintain there houses anymore and very few people are handy enough to even turn off the water main these days. I see more claims in a week today then we used to see in a quarter 20 years ago.

What’s the roof replacement mandate based on? Age or the roof, visual condition?

 

[Cole Trickle]

What’s the roof replacement mandate based on? Age or the roof, visual condition?

Little bit of both as all roofs have an expiration date. Typically see issues with comp roofs that are close enough o or past there service years.

If a roof is in great condition regardless of age it doesn’t throw flags.

People just don’t maintain houses like they did 20 years ago. The price of materials and labor are a big part of it.

I had a 75 year old lady turn in a claim after the of rains and wind last month. She straight up told me she deserved a new roof as she has paid for insurance for a long time. I told her insurance isn’t a maintenance plan and she got pissy.

The adjuster found that the roof was installed poorly originally and was 10 years pas its expiration date and the recent winds and rain only caused $1400 worth of damage.

She thought they were going to give her a new 40k roof.

I deal with this a lot.

 

[HNL2LHC]

To me, this is a big warning sign the economy is teetering on the edge of bad things;

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/08/01/intel-layoffs-chips/

Paywall….

 

[EmpirE231]

Little bit of both as all roofs have an expiration date. Typically see issues with comp roofs that are close enough o or past there service years.

If a roof is in great condition regardless of age it doesn’t throw flags.

People just don’t maintain houses like they did 20 years ago. The price of materials and labor are a big part of it.

I had a 75 year old lady turn in a claim after the of rains and wind last month. She straight up told me she deserved a new roof as she has paid for insurance for a long time. I told her insurance isn’t a maintenance plan and she got pissy.

The adjuster found that the roof was installed poorly originally and was 10 years pas its expiration date and the recent winds and rain only caused $1400 worth of damage.

She thought they were going to give her a new 40k roof.

I deal with this a lot.

That and the people who get in a small fender bender (5k damage) but insist they need a new car and to total out their 70k SUV

A lot of people seem to think they need to or deserve to get all their premiums back at some point… and then everyone is upset with massive rise in rates.

One thing to note from the water damage response above… sewer backup and a clogged drain are 2 different things. Sewer backup is not a standard coverage.

 

[DWC]

Little bit of both as all roofs have an expiration date. Typically see issues with comp roofs that are close enough o or past there service years.

If a roof is in great condition regardless of age it doesn’t throw flags.

People just don’t maintain houses like they did 20 years ago. The price of materials and labor are a big part of it.

I had a 75 year old lady turn in a claim after the of rains and wind last month. She straight up told me she deserved a new roof as she has paid for insurance for a long time. I told her insurance isn’t a maintenance plan and she got pissy.

The adjuster found that the roof was installed poorly originally and was 10 years pas its expiration date and the recent winds and rain only caused $1400 worth of damage.

She thought they were going to give her a new 40k roof.

I deal with this a lot.

So Cal has one of the lowest replacement rates in the country. People buy almost as much roof coatings as shingles. They figure we won’t get enough rain, just throw some more patch on it and it’ll last another year. You can’t get away with that in most areas. Flying into LAX is awesome. Look down and check out the amount of rolled roofing on steep slopes. The number of tarps and cans of Henry’s on roofs cracks me up.

 

[DWC]

Same here in the Southbay. That's why there are hundreds of new water restoration and plumbing companies.

A customer recently purchased a new to them house. Insurance company said show proof of repipe or install a automatic water shut off device within 2 weeks or get dropped. Imagine that will become the norm with insurance. I got hit with the new roof or be dropped along with my Brother.


We just repiped a house last week that had its 5th pin hole. I told them not to make a claim. To avoid being dropped.

Are the pin holes from poor installs or the change in water treatment. I remember reading somewhere that water companies tweaked their chems a bit and that’s causing the issue. Could be a dream. I’ve had a few over the last 5-6 years. Good one that cost me about $1,000 bucks a few months ago.

 

[NicPaus]

It's the cost of a new roof that people can't afford. I spent a few hours on the roof yesterday nailing shingles to save on my costs. Roof needs all new radiant barrier sheeting around 70 sheets. 18 squares of Cool shingles. Around $6K for materials and dump fees. Going rate for that roof is 26k-32k.

I will take a pic of the letter from homeowners insurance. It mentions condition of roof, age of roof and moss on roof. I looked at that roof no moss. But that might be the next roof I do to make them happy.

 

[NicPaus]

Are the pin holes from poor installs or the change in water treatment. I remember reading somewhere that water companies tweaked their chems a bit and that’s causing the issue. Could be a dream. I’ve had a few over the last 5-6 years. Good one that cost me about $1,000 bucks a few months ago.

From what I was told years ago by a former water dept employee. Is they switched from chlorine to chloramine.

Not reaming the pipes would also be a cause which is poor install.

I am running all new Uponor PEX now on a addition. The copper is only 10 years old but we have the house down to the studs and joists.

Repipe on the project house in next week or so. I have been upselling type K copper on all the repipes for areas pex will not work. And just bought a few rolls of black poly main water lines from Meter to houses. Transition from black poly to K then Uponor Pex once inside. Anything exposed is K.

 

[bentprops]

The major price increase in insures rates is not what you think. Especial the home ins. First off, who owns these INS companies? Our deepstate dic's warren b gieco, and georgie soros progressive. Home insurance they tell you its climate change so they can push the agenda. However they don't sit on those premiums, they invest them into CMBS commercial mortgage backed securities. If you didnt know the samething that happend in housing in 2008 is curently happening in Comerical real estate. These INS companies are losing there ass. They can't tell you they made bad investments and why they have to rip you off. The other reason is they do life insurance policys as well. Unless you have been hiding under a rock since the pioson jab everyone injected the death rate is thru the roof. So again lossing there ass.

 

[Lower river sludge]

Unlike GEICO and progressive many of the big insurance companies are mutuals. I work for one that gets mentioned occasionally. Goal of a mutual is to charge enough to pay claims for our members (and have employees to answer the phones). I hate paying insurance as much as the next person but we really do pay it all back out as hard to believe as it is. We do have money invested and when those investments are doing well we're actually ok losing a little on the actual business side, it benefits our members.

Think about how many homes have been lost in the recent fires and probably a million plus paid out per home when it's all said and done. That's where much of the $ goes.

 

[ChumpChange]

Mortgage rates are on a nice downward trend and loan activity is picking up

Nice. Gotta pay for that cancellation fee somehow.

 

[nameisbond]

Toronto is in trouble: https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/fin...p&cvid=bab29f1ca019478bb1c7ef4fd4d51185&ei=11 Vancouver is not far behind.

 

[Done-it-again]

IDK go to orange county and the chinese are still majority buyers it seems. Hell one guy last month parked $10M cash in two KB homes tract houses lmao.

Nothing new. They need the money out of china, my MIL worked retired from escrow will tell story’s about the Chinese buying 2-10 houses in a community in the OC, worth many millions.

Same with one of my kids friends in Rancho who rented from a Chinese guy. He bought around 25 new track homes and rented them all out.

Just parking money in the us and the California market is safer than most places

 

[Cole Trickle]

Nothing new. They need the money out of china, my MIL worked retired from escrow will tell story’s about the Chinese buying 2-10 houses in a community in the OC, worth many millions.

Same with one of my kids friends in Rancho who rented from a Chinese guy. He bought around 25 new track homes and rented them all out.

Just parking money in the us and the California market is safer than most places

I believe owning doors also helps with immigration and deems How many family members you can send over. (student visa,etc)

 

[Looking Glass]

Dumb? More like geniuses seeing how this is excatly what they want. Bigger and more powerful Gov and the rest of us having less. Repuckican and democraps are just 2 wings of the same bird. Wake up! its the gov of the world verses the people. Your pink haired neighbor is not your enemy. Sorry to say trump is not going to save you.

I'll take my chances ANY DAY, ALL DAY with President Trump other than "Oblamer", "Brandon" OR "KAMALA"

 

[Done-it-again]

I believe owning doors also helps with immigration and deems How many family members you can send over. (student visa,etc)

Yes

The EB-5 Immigrant Investor visa program provides a path for foreign nationals to achieve permanent residence (a green card) in the United States. The program requires a minimum investment of $800,000 to qualify. CMB Regional Centers provides investment opportunities designed to meet the requirements of the EB-5 program.

​

 

[77charger]

IDK go to orange county and the chinese are still majority buyers it seems. Hell one guy last month parked $10M cash in two KB homes tract houses lmao.

Kb homes 10 mil should buy atleast 20 of their shit boxes.

 

[DWC]

Kb homes 10 mil should buy atleast 20 of their shit boxes.

Guessing not in OC. Maybe 8 if they’re single family.

 

[DWC]

Talked to the builder early on, it was always going to be a spec house. He put up a sign and had a realtor caravan thru there a month or so ago. Guess they made him take down the sign, some rule about house having to be completed within a couple of weeks of it going on the MLS and putting up a sign. At the time he was a couple months from being complete.
Hope he gets somewhere close to asking. Suppose it doesn’t really matter, I will never sell, my kids will have to deal with that.

Looks like you’re finally going to get a neighbor.

 

[DUNEFLYER]

Looks like you’re finally going to get a neighbor.

Just under 2.1mill, I’m nigga rich.. Oops am I allowed to say that?

Life is good..

 

[DWC]

Just under 2.1mill, I’m nigga rich.. Oops am I allowed to say that?

Life is good..

Nice, good looking house inside and out. Hope they’re good neighbors. At that kinda dough, guessing it’s not a VRBO.

 

[Tank]

Me, still waiting for the big drop so I can buy the house I want in havasu....

 

[BHC Vic]

Me, still waiting for the big drop so I can buy the house I want in havasu....

View attachment 1411780

If I’ve learned anything in the last two days RV shopping it seems like people are starting to get a little desperate. Almost begging me to buy what they got

 

[BHC Vic]

This is the house right across the street from us in BHC
We’ll see what happens

 

[Tank]

If I’ve learned anything in the last two days RV shopping it seems like people are starting to get a little desperate. Almost begging me to buy what they got

I was being a smart ass. Surprise I know.

I’ve actually seen a few toy markets cooling. And houses are as well actually. Nothing dramatic. But more open houses, sitting longer and price reductions are definitely happening. We low balled a house in the foothills this week. First offer didn’t
stick. We’ll see about the counter.

We’ve hit the ceiling and it’s adjusting a bit right now. We’ll see how much so soon enough.

 

[Runs2rch]

If I’ve learned anything in the last two days RV shopping it seems like people are starting to get a little desperate. Almost begging me to buy what they got

Exactly. They see the writing on the wall.

 

[NicPaus]

If I’ve learned anything in the last two days RV shopping it seems like people are starting to get a little desperate. Almost begging me to buy what they got

The RV market got flooded from covid. Now there are thousands just sitting. Good time to buy.

Housing shortage still in effect in the Southbay. Other markets I am sure will keep going down as they can build track homes a few blocks away. Here there is no vacant land to develop. I still expect prices to go down. But I don't see them going down like 2010.

 

[bonesfab]

The RV market got flooded from covid. Now there are thousands just sitting. Good time to buy.

Housing shortage still in effect in the Southbay. Other markets I am sure will keep going down as they can build track homes a few blocks away. Here there is no vacant land to develop. I still expect prices to go down. But I don't see them going down like 2010.

You mean down like Kamala on big Willies willy.

 

[NicPaus]

You mean down like Kamala on big Willies willy.

Down on the knees and down the throat. Describes the RV market. My Buddy is upside down over 100k on the 5 he bought to rent. Wants out but doesn't have the 100k to pay the difference if he turns them in. Few years they will be worthless and almost full amount owed.

 

[satellitemike]

Where are mortgage rates now, and what does the crystal ball think they will be in a month or so?