For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[530RL]

Today's data

US Home Prices Hit Record With Eight Straight Months of Gains

(Bloomberg) -- Home prices in the US extended their climb, reaching a fresh record high.Most Read from BloombergCharlie Munger, Who Helped Buffett Build Berkshire, Dies at 99Musk’s Cybertruck Is Already a Production Nightmare for TeslaHamas Releases 12 Hostages Despite Claims of Truce...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[bonesfab]

Today's data

US Home Prices Hit Record With Eight Straight Months of Gains

(Bloomberg) -- Home prices in the US extended their climb, reaching a fresh record high.Most Read from BloombergCharlie Munger, Who Helped Buffett Build Berkshire, Dies at 99Musk’s Cybertruck Is Already a Production Nightmare for TeslaHamas Releases 12 Hostages Despite Claims of Truce...

finance.yahoo.com

So since it is on YAhoo the opposite is probably true.

 

[JL95]

May 2022 was stronger zestimate for me. it's getting there slowly.

 

[boatpi]

Any suggestions on a commercial loan under 1 Mil, strong down? Usually an SBA loan.

 

[Done-it-again]

Any suggestions on a commercial loan under 1 Mil, strong down? Usually an SBA loan.

SBA's take forever... Lost many opportunity's on buildings by going SBA... So I'm still renting, lol

 

[cofooter]

It's time!!!!!!

 

[ChumpChange]

Any suggestions on a commercial loan under 1 Mil, strong down? Usually an SBA loan.

Super easy to do with the major banks as they have streamlined underwriting for loans under $1 million and the reporting requirements on a go forward basis are minimal if any. Just need to find the right guy at the big banks.

Smaller banks will be less competitive as their underwriting on small loans is just as complex as big loans. Takes too much brain power for them.

What state and I can probably give you a top performer who you’ll never find walking into an office. The top guys never deal with retail branches.

If it’s a small enough loan, I don’t almost go Private Money. There’s not much disparity in the rates these days and you’ll save a bunch of money on third-party reports to get it taken care of. Seen plenty of borrowers go this way recently.

 

[brgrcru]

Try the China bank (East West Bank ) for commercial

 

[ChumpChange]

Try the China bank (East West Bank ) for commercial

I worked for a very large international foreign bank for quite a few years. You only go there when you need to because they do what’s called “money good” deals. Somewhat like non-bank SBA lenders. Higher prices for poorer credit. He sounds like a decent credit.

 

[attitude]

It's time!!!!!!

View attachment 1308209

He would have my attention

 

[boatpi]

We do 7 figures with Wells, and have a quote from them. just looking for a second thought from an expert. In Nevada, new construction.

 

[530RL]

Today's inflation data

US Core PCE inflation rose 3.5% in October, lowest since April 2021

The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation measure, will be published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Thursday at 13:30 GMT.

www.fxstreet.com

 

[Orange Juice]

Rate cuts coming….Summer of 2024?

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/01/economy/fed-chair-powell-rate-cuts/index.html

 

[THE WIDGE]

Hopefully they come down, I ‘LL be closing in two weeks w a 6.25 jumbo .375 cost on a second home, conformings rates where in the 8s which made it cheaper monthly to purchase with a loan just above confirming limits. Unfortunately confirming limits are going up to 750 next month. I would not have paid 8 plus percent which I would have been forced to do

 

[shintoooo]

Real estate stalled for a few months here but it’s heating up again with talks of rate cuts mid next year. Inventory is low and prices are still high. People are buying now because if rates do go down, there will be a rush to buy again and prices will go up so I feel that people on the sidelines are stepping in now so they can lock in the prices and refi later.

Of course this can all change if something drastic happens which we all know can happen. However, from my line of work, there is so damn much money out there that I just don’t see that happening. Grandpa and grandma are flush with cash and so are mom and dad. If you live in the big cities where the jobs are, hold on to your house and hat.

 

[Done-it-again]

2024 is a election year. If you don’t think the dem’s will do what they can to lower the rates and “save” the people in time. We’ll just keep your head in the sand.

The WH is going to flood money back to the people soon to win votes.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

2024 is a election year. If you don’t think the dem’s will do what they can to lower the rates and “save” the people in time. We’ll just keep your head in the sand.

The WH is going to flood money back to the people soon to win votes.

But if they do that the “great deals” on housing we were told were “around the corner” will take another 18 months to get here!

 

[Havasu blue label]

California housing market really never slowed down

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

California housing market really never slowed down

Very few markets did.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

But if they do that the “great deals” on housing we were told were “around the corner” will take another 18 months to get here!

Live view of NGE, still waiting for the market to crash.

 

[PaPaG]

Just got back from a 9 day Texas trip for our 2nd house to be closer to a lot of family that some have lived there for 3 generations. Toured a lot of properties and areas. We went to lake Whitney I was told and read clean water nice area (Threw that option out the window after an hour tour, mucky crappy water, dozens of trees sticking out of the cove areas, strange properties not for us), then visited Waco, lots of houses and lower prices listings for longer and longer time frames, Some very cool houses, typical big middle sized city but not for us, Austin after about an hour left and said no way for us, so crowded but we expected that, prices holding and still selling in a good timeframe, traffic was out of control, spent the week at our family's house in Bridgeland Cypress, super cool community, if you like master planned communities it is amazing with all they offer. We want a huge lot in a much more quiet area. Final place toured this trip was Magnolia, checked out Indigo Lake estates, WOW, a lot of 2 acre big beautiful houses (only 3 listed, but lots were available), huge RV garage builds, Nice small lake. Called the listing agent, was going to make an offer since it priced 75k lower this last month, was in contract so no go...I would say 50% of the houses and lots we looked at dropped 50k-150k in prices this past 6-8 months, houses that have gone up 350-500k in the 2 years of covid are adjusting facts are facts, will they go down to precovid I doubt it but who knows where they will end, anyone that thinks these prices will stay covid high forever are dreaming.

 

[cofooter]

Just got back from a 9 day Texas trip for our 2nd house to be closer to a lot of family that some have lived there for 3 generations. Toured a lot of properties and areas. We went to lake Whitney I was told and read clean water nice area (Threw that option out the window after an hour tour, mucky crappy water, dozens of trees sticking out of the cove areas, strange properties not for us), then visited Waco, lots of houses and lower prices listings for longer and longer time frames, Some very cool houses, typical big middle sized city but not for us, Austin after about an hour left and said no way for us, so crowded but we expected that, prices holding and still selling in a good timeframe, traffic was out of control, spent the week at our family's house in Bridgeland Cypress, super cool community, if you like master planned communities it is amazing with all they offer. We want a huge lot in a much more quiet area. Final place toured this trip was Magnolia, checked out Indigo Lake estates, WOW, a lot of 2 acre big beautiful houses (only 3 listed, but lots were available), huge RV garage builds, Nice small lake. Called the listing agent, was going to make an offer since it priced 75k lower this last month, was in contract so no go...I would say 50% of the houses and lots we looked at dropped 50k-150k in prices this past 6-8 months, houses that have gone up 350-500k in the 2 years of covid are adjusting facts are facts, will they go down to precovid I doubt it but who knows where they will end, anyone that thinks these prices will stay covid high forever are dreaming.

Ive been looking for the past 6mths at lake properties in the mid-west and have noticed the same thing.......

 

[PaPaG]

Just got back from a 9 day Texas trip for our 2nd house to be closer to a lot of family that some have lived there for 3 generations. Toured a lot of properties and areas. We went to lake Whitney I was told and read clean water nice area (Threw that option out the window after an hour tour, mucky crappy water, dozens of trees sticking out of the cove areas, strange properties not for us), then visited Waco, lots of houses and lower prices listings for longer and longer time frames, Some very cool houses, typical big middle sized city but not for us, Austin after about an hour left and said no way for us, so crowded but we expected that, prices holding and still selling in a good timeframe, traffic was out of control, spent the week at our family's house in Bridgeland Cypress, super cool community, if you like master planned communities it is amazing with all they offer. We want a huge lot in a much more quiet area. Final place toured this trip was Magnolia, checked out Indigo Lake estates, WOW, a lot of 2 acre big beautiful houses (only 3 listed, but lots were available), huge RV garage builds, Nice small lake. Called the listing agent, was going to make an offer since it priced 75k lower this last month, was in contract so no go...I would say 50% of the houses and lots we looked at dropped 50k-150k in prices this past 6-8 months, houses that have gone up 350-500k in the 2 years of covid are adjusting facts are facts, will they go down to precovid I doubt it but who knows where they will end, anyone that thinks these prices will stay covid high forever are dreaming.

We saw some nice lots for under 325k in Magnolia, estimating a $300 sq ft to build a semi-custom, 2500sq foot house, 5k sq foot RV Garage, pool with huge fire pit area for up to 20 people, guessing it can be done for under 1.2 with their connections, on and an amazing bbq area since my BIL and his entire family are Texas bbq masters (in my opinion) he made us the best dry rub ribs and chicken we have ever eaten and they have a small 20 acre ranch with about a dozen cows a few hogs, chickens, so the meat will be there They were trying to convince me to buy a small ranch next to their vacation ranch 20-30 acres only 15-17k an acre, does not sound like a lot when you look at 2 acres for 300k in magnolia.

 

[mesquito_creek]

Per the Texas Property Tax Code, all taxable property must be valued at 100 percent of market value as of January 1 each year.

Magnolia, Texas has an average property tax rate of 1.66%….

$19920 on 1.2 million before interest and insurance…. That’s nuts

 

[DC-88]

We've had a couple more record high sales this month ,for what the properties were respectively , here at the coast . I talked to two mtg brokers in Az last week who both said it's been crickets doing loans. One of my kids did a little house hunting at the tracts in PHX area over the weekend and sales traffic was dead with 25K incentives for a new build and discounts on the units that are sitting. Coinbase stock is charging ahead though .

 

[Englewood]

Seems like being in a "world of hurt for the next few years" is pretty profitable.

Per OP:
"YOU'VE seen Nothing YET"
"if you planned on selling I hope you got it done or soon...if not expect some changes very soon."
"I am guessing another 2 years of downturn and great prices to start very soon...."

If $1,100/mo in appreciation is a world of hurt, sign me up! Considering West Coast housing prices, it was likely $2-3k/mo+ in appreciation.

"Facts are facts"

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Seems like being in a "world of hurt for the next few years" is pretty profitable.

Per OP:
"YOU'VE seen Nothing YET"
"if you planned on selling I hope you got it done or soon...if not expect some changes very soon."
"I am guessing another 2 years of downturn and great prices to start very soon...."

If $1,100/mo in appreciation is a world of hurt, sign me up! Considering West Coast housing prices, it was likely $2-3k/mo+ in appreciation.

"Facts are facts"
View attachment 1309692

Listen bro, This one RE market I looked at is now slightly down from the peak. Those are the facts, I'm right, the market has fallen. Hold yore hat. FACTS.

This went from a prediction of a downturn across the entire nation to picking individual markets that are down single digit percentages from their 3 month peaks that they had in 2022.

 

[Done-it-again]

Per the Texas Property Tax Code, all taxable property must be valued at 100 percent of market value as of January 1 each year.

Magnolia, Texas has an average property tax rate of 1.66%….

$19920 on 1.2 million before interest and insurance…. That’s nuts

Look at new houses in CA, tax rates are pushing1.85-2% now. Got to pay for the infrastructure to build those homes. Then add that to CA income tax, that 20k doesn't seem all that bad, unless you have been in the same home for 30yrs.

 

[hallett21]

Look at new houses in CA, tax rates are pushing1.85-2% now. Got to pay for the infrastructure to build those homes. Then add that to CA income tax, that 20k doesn't seem all that bad, unless you have been in the same home for 30yrs.

Does Texas re asses property tax every year?

 

[mesquito_creek]

Look at new houses in CA, tax rates are pushing1.85-2% now. Got to pay for the infrastructure to build those homes. Then add that to CA income tax, that 20k doesn't seem all that bad, unless you have been in the same home for 30yrs.

It’s piling up 20k in you backyard every year and lighting it on fire in both cases.

 

[mesquito_creek]

Does Texas re asses property tax every year?

Per the Texas tax code taken off the webpage of Montgomery Texas… it sure seems so!

 

[Done-it-again]

Does Texas re asses property tax every year?

They do, you can also homestead as well if its your primary and that lowers your tax. If you are retirement age then you are not re assess any longer. If you are military then there is special property tax advantages as well.

 

[Done-it-again]

It’s piling up 20k in you backyard every year and lighting it on fire in both cases.

You don't pay any property tax now?

 

[hallett21]

They do, you can also homestead as well if its your primary and that lowers your tax. If you are retirement age then you are not re assess any longer. If you are military then there is special property tax advantages as well.

I assume ranches/farms get an agricultural discount as well?

 

[Done-it-again]

I assume ranches/farms get an agricultural discount as well?

Yes, if you establish an ag exemption then taxes are almost nothing.....

If you have 300 acres, then were ever the home is, that is market out and you will pay property tax on that section for "residential" then the remaining x acres is considered ag...

 

[mesquito_creek]

You don't pay any property tax now?

$2,200 on a 750k house in AZ and I bitch and moan for about a week or two before and after I write the check every year!

 

[Done-it-again]

$2,200 on a 750k house in AZ and I bitch and moan for about a week or two before and after I write the check every year!

You need to say the purchase price to have a 2,200 property tax bill, not what its worth now.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

$2,200 on a 750k house in AZ and I bitch and moan for about a week or two before and after I write the check every year!

I have to write my checks for AZ here... Ugh. Just paid UT last week.

 

[mesquito_creek]

You need to say the purchase price to have a 2,200 property tax bill, not what its worth now.

I paid 150 in 1997 and I think it’s assessed at a LPV of 300. But if I sold it the new owners would still pay the same as me, taxes are not based on sale price

 

[mesquito_creek]

I have to write my checks for AZ here... Ugh. Just paid UT last week.

Do you pay the out of state 2x in Utah or is it your primary… I bitch about my UT taxes twice as much to make up for the non residential penalty! Haha

 

[Done-it-again]

I paid 150 in 1997 and I think it’s assessed at a LPV of 300.

That is why its low.... By a 750k house now and see what you are going to pay.... Its going to be less than TX for sure, but being 10k difference is a hell of a lot better than being 20k difference, then take out state income tax and well there is not much of a difference.

But we can all agree that AZ will turn Democratic before TX does...

 

[PaPaG]

Per the Texas Property Tax Code, all taxable property must be valued at 100 percent of market value as of January 1 each year.

Magnolia, Texas has an average property tax rate of 1.66%….

$19920 on 1.2 million before interest and insurance…. That’s nuts

They will not asses at 1.2 or 1.3 mil, my BIL is a money man in texas and he did the research on a few houses on the market and their past and current property assesments and tax rates, from what we saw it was roughly 1/2 of actual value taxed. That is one of the biggest things I do not like about Texas especially for a part time home is how high the property tax rate is. I figure if I do it when after I turn 65 I get a break or just bite the bullet and plan it into our budget.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Do you pay the out of state 2x in Utah or is it your primary… I bitch about my UT taxes twice as much to make up for the non residential penalty! Haha

No UT is primary. House is almost 3x the size of CA and I pay less than half of my old CA property tax. The new owners of my CA house are paying more than double what I paid.

It’s nuts. In South OC there are sub $3m homes with $50k annual property tax bills.

 

[mesquito_creek]

That is why its low.... By a 750k house now and see what you are going to pay.... Its going to be less than TX for sure, but being 10k difference is a hell of a lot better than being 20k difference, then take out state income tax and well there is not much of a difference.

But we can all agree that AZ will turn Democratic before TX does...

I can’t afford to buy a 750k house, I couldn’t even buy the one I own now, I am poor and my taxes prove it!

 

[Orange Juice]

I can’t afford to buy a 750k house, I couldn’t even buy the one I own now, I am poor and my taxes prove it!

Did you ever think your personal resident would be valued at $1 Million dollars?

I can’t afford a bathroom remodel, because everyone wants me to make their next 12 payments on their Million dollar mortgage.

So I do all my own home improvements. I’m passing those skills down to my kids/grandkids, so they can continue to afford a home, and have faith they can take on typical home remodeling work.

 

[HNL2LHC]

No UT is primary. House is almost 3x the size of CA and I pay less than half of my old CA property tax. The new owners of my CA house are paying more than double what I paid.

It’s nuts. In South OC there are sub $3m homes with $50k annual property tax bills.

Yeah, CA really gets you on Property taxes. Hawaii is not too bad. I guess they tax less than CA on an account of all the rain that breaks up the good weather. AZ is even better.

 

[traquer]

It sucks in Texas. They use satellite pics to re-asses you each year if you add a major improvement like a pool or backyard.

I think it's still great that you can buy a teardown in CA and leave a wall standing and rebuild the rest of the house and still pay tax on the purchase price more or less. In Texas they'd immediately asses the house on whatever the new structure is worth based on comps.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Yeah, CA really gets you on Property taxes. Hawaii is not too bad. I guess they tax less than CA on an account of all the rain that breaks up the good weather. AZ is even better.

Yea. If you are older and bought 20+ years ago or bought in 09-12 it isn't horrible in some places. My house at the time was a straight ~1% tax. It was a 40 year old house so all the bonds, mella-roos and crap was already paid off.

The new neighborhoods are insane when the fully burdened tax bill is in the high 2% range.

 

[regor]

I got this on the commercial side last week from a contact at Voit.


Roger,



I hope you had a fantastic Thanksgiving break.


I would like to reach out and share that a freestanding building around 10,000 SF just sold recently for a purchase price around $415 PSF. This is virtually the only building to transact since the last time we connected. Lease rates are holding steady around $1.70 PSF. Please see brochure attached.



Please let me know if you have any additional questions and I’ll be more than happy to help.



Best regards,





Last time we connected, 2 months.

 

[mesquito_creek]

Did you ever think your personal resident would be valued at $1 Million dollars?

I can’t afford a bathroom remodel, because everyone wants me to make their next 12 payments on their Million dollar mortgage.

So I do all my own home improvements. I’m passing those skills down to my kids/grandkids, so they can continue to afford a home, and have faith they can take on typical home remodeling work.

Honestly, it’s just a number at this point. The house dose exactly what it did 25 years ago. It keeps us dry in the rain and cool in the summer. If you told me it’s worth 10 million it not going to unclog a drain or plunge a toilet because of it.

Its cheap to rent from the govt (property tax) and insurance Company…. And then it reaches into my pocket for a new AC unit every 15 years etc.

It’s been overvalued and under valued a couple of times over the years. Hasn’t changed a thing for me personally.