For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[angiebaby]

Under water used to go hand in hand with the old monthly being higher as well. Now your equity is “underwater” while having a significantly cheaper monthly payment.

It was always my understanding that "underwater" meant you owed more than it was worth. It has nothing to do with your payment.

 

[hallett21]

If

It was always my understanding that "underwater" meant you owed more than it was worth. It has nothing to do with your payment.

Agreed. I just can’t think of a time in the last 20-30 years when you’re not upside down on both equity and payment.

It used to be that if you were upside down on car/house you could walk away and rent/lease to save money. Now I think that’s costing you significantly more per month and your credit is ruined in the process.

 

[pronstar]

This is easy math:
You bought at Price X last year with 5% down payment.

The market dips >5% from when you bought.

You're now upside down.
Not necessarily a "sky is falling" scenario, methinks

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

This is easy math:
You bought at Price X last year with 5% down payment.

The market dips >5% from when you bought.

You're now upside down.
Not necessarily a "sky is falling" scenario, methinks

No.. but it is a hat holding scenario.


If other options like renting or moving are more expensive… seems to me you’d still be willing to pay and shelter in place..

And only be forced out if you lost your ability to pay.

 

[Cole Trickle]

If

Agreed. I just can’t think of a time in the last 20-30 years when you’re not upside down on both equity and payment.

It used to be that if you were upside down on car/house you could walk away and rent/lease to save money. Now I think that’s costing you significantly more per month and your credit is ruined in the process.

I agree

You don't walk away to pay the same for less. No one that short sold during the last crash made a higher payment for a rental home.

You walk away when you can rent the same house for 1k less a month. 2 bedroom apartments in good areas are $2200++ Houses are well over 3k.

 

[Bpracing1127]

I agree

You don't walk away to pay the same for less. No one that short sold during the last crash made a higher payment for a rental home.

You walk away when you can rent the same house for 1k less a month. 2 bedroom apartments in good areas are $2200++ Houses are well over 3k.

Or you walk away when you can’t afford the house your in all together

 

[Cole Trickle]

Or you walk away when you can’t afford the house your in all together

The last go around absolutely people had issues paying bills. We also all know a ton of people that walked away and somehow some way had parents or other family that bought them back into houses when they lost zero income.

Nobody likes a bad deal....The difference this time is we have a housing supply issue. You better hope you have some pretty cool parents that want there 40 year olds and kids moving in with them or they would have to go rent and that's the issue because rent is much higher this go around when compared to a home that was purchased at 2.75 %

 

[Bpracing1127]

The last go around absolutely people had issues paying bills. We also all know a ton of people that walked away and somehow some way had parents or other family that bought them back into houses when they lost zero income.

Nobody likes a bad deal....The difference this time is we have a housing supply issue. You better hope you have some pretty cool parents that want there 40 year olds and kids moving in with them or they would have to go rent and that's the issue because rent is much higher this go around when compared to a home that was purchased at 2.75 %

Agreed, but I think your missing the point. Let’s say they are in a 2000 sqft home 3/2 for 3k per month (mortgage) rent for the same property is likely 4000 per month. To my point if you can’t afford the 3k a month then your are forced to make more money or downsize to somethjng affordable thus moving to Compton or wherever or someplace really small.

I’m not saying the masses will do this because job losses are not there but some will start doing this soon.

Apples to apples people will not leave 2.75% at 3k month for 4K rent a month for the same place.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

Everyone has an amortizing loan which means they are paying down their loan every month and it will partially offset the price declines. Over 4-5 years it can really add up. A couple big things keeping prices from cratering: low unemployment, high rents low mtg payments(3% interest), lack of housing inventory. P

 

[Gonefishin5555]

Agreed, but I think your missing the point. Let’s say they are in a 2000 sqft home 3/2 for 3k per month (mortgage) rent for the same property is likely 4000 per month. To my point if you can’t afford the 3k a month then your are forced to make more money or downsize to somethjng affordable thus moving to Compton or wherever or someplace really small.

I’m not saying the masses will do this because job losses are not there but some will start doing this soon.

Apples to apples people will not leave 2.75% at 3k month for 4K rent a month for the same place.

factor in the principal portion of the mortgage and the difference is even bigger and the fact that your payment will never increase(assuming fixed rate). A 10% rent increase is $400 a month thats almost a car payment

 

[Bpracing1127]

factor in the principal portion of the mortgage and the difference is even bigger and the fact that your payment will never increase(assuming fixed rate). A 10% rent increase is $400 a month thats almost a car payment

I get all of that but if you can’t pay you can’t pay right

 

[Cole Trickle]

Agreed, but I think your missing the point. Let’s say they are in a 2000 sqft home 3/2 for 3k per month (mortgage) rent for the same property is likely 4000 per month. To my point if you can’t afford the 3k a month then your are forced to make more money or downsize to somethjng affordable thus moving to Compton or wherever or someplace really small.

I’m not saying the masses will do this because job losses are not there but some will start doing this soon.

Apples to apples people will not leave 2.75% at 3k month for 4K rent a month for the same place.

If you can't afford the mortgage you would have an issue regardless of the current market and home values. You would be better off putting the kids in bunk beds and trying to rent out a couple rooms so the kids can stay in the same school district. Sell cars cut all expenses and i bet you would still be able to afford the house on unemployment or with a gov program.

If you are 2 months from bankruptcy and loosing your house if you loose a job a home wasn't a great idea in the first place unfortunately.

Have you looked at Compton and surrounding areas prices lately everything is nuts...lol

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Agreed, but I think your missing the point. Let’s say they are in a 2000 sqft home 3/2 for 3k per month (mortgage) rent for the same property is likely 4000 per month. To my point if you can’t afford the 3k a month then your are forced to make more money or downsize to somethjng affordable thus moving to Compton or wherever or someplace really small.

I’m not saying the masses will do this because job losses are not there but some will start doing this soon.

Apples to apples people will not leave 2.75% at 3k month for 4K rent a month for the same place.

If the person is in that situation, they likely still have equity. They aren’t walking away from that.

Unless they are working from home and can afford to move to a cheaper market… any savings they find will be wasted on increasing commuting costs. And what will they do, go rent an apartment for $2k and spend $500 more on gas? That isn’t a savings after factoring in write offs.

It will be at least a year before thst person has to leave their house if they stop making payments tomorrow.

This is an inverse situation to last time.. people in that situation will stay in their house until the bitter end.

As @Cole Trickle said, the creative option last time was walking away with nothing out of pocket. The creative option this time is figuring out how to keep your low rate mortgage…. Rent out a room, do what you have to do.

 

[NicPaus]

If you can't afford the mortgage you would have an issue regardless of the current market and home values. You would be better off putting the kids in bunk beds and trying to rent out a couple rooms so the kids can stay in the same school district. Sell cars cut all expenses and i bet you would still be able to afford the house on unemployment or with a gov program.

If you are 2 months from bankruptcy and loosing your house if you loose a job a home wasn't a great idea in the first place unfortunately.

Have you looked at Compton and surrounding areas prices lately everything is nuts...lol

My niece just entered escrow Friday in Compton. Multiple offers. Had to go as is. Lucky She has a Uncle that can fix anything.

 

[hallett21]

I get all of that but if you can’t pay you can’t pay right

Can’t afford the monthly but can fork out the cash to move? Assuming you’re in such a bad place you get zero money on the sale.

I hear what you’re saying but even if you make 200k+ a year and are fired tomorrow, you could get a job for $25hr tomorrow.

I gotta imagine the average 2.75% mortgage owner can use savings and grit to weather 12-24 months.

 

[EmpirE231]

everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face
-Mike Tyson

 

[hallett21]

The other thing is insurance fraud.

Down to nothing in the bank…. Sure be a shame if the paid for car was totaled or the house burned down.

Now I know everyone over bought their home, has 3 cars with 1,000 a month payments and they live paycheck to paycheck. If you fit that category you couldn’t afford a home or the cars in the first place.

 

[Cole Trickle]

My niece just entered escrow Friday in Compton. Multiple offers. Had to go as is. Lucky She has a Uncle that can fix anything.

Young girl that works for me and husband bought a condo a year ago in bellflower for more than one would ever expect because it was cheaper than anything in standard oc...crazy

 

[Cole Trickle]

The other thing is insurance fraud.

Down to nothing in the bank…. Sure be a shame if the paid for car was totaled or the house burned down.

Now I know everyone over bought their home, has 3 cars with 1,000 a month payments and they live paycheck to paycheck. If you fit that category you couldn’t afford a home or the cars in the first place.

Insurance companies are pretty hip to fraud especially in hard times. It's been my experience that most people that "have" to commit fraud are pretty bad at it. Years ago (like 20) we had a girl that leased a fully loaded 4 runner for her boyfriend because he couldn't qualify. Boyfriend jammed and left her the car and she couldn't afford it. Couple weeks later she turned in a theft claim. OC sheriff found the car cut up in dumpsters with vin tag still intact and video/finger prints that her and her brother decided to get rid of it the old way. They were convicted to the full extent of the law 15 years ago.

 

[Cole Trickle]

The other thing is insurance fraud.

Down to nothing in the bank…. Sure be a shame if the paid for car was totaled or the house burned down.

Now I know everyone over bought their home, has 3 cars with 1,000 a month payments and they live paycheck to paycheck. If you fit that category you couldn’t afford a home or the cars in the first place.

I think the reality of a bad situation is people do nothing about it with hopes that it will go away. Lets say you loose your job and stop making payments next month. You still probably have some options but what happens is people don't respond to the letters or notices and do nothing until the sheriff shows up 1.5 years later with no plan and nothing saved up even though they have not had to make a payment for 18 months. Smart person would play the game get back to work immediately even if it was less $$$ and bank that payment so they have a nice chunk when they have to leave for movers and a new deposit....I think it's the embarrassment and thinking they have zero options. (This is thinking they don't have any equity)

 

[hallett21]

Insurance companies are pretty hip to fraud especially in hard times. It's been my experience that most people that "have" to commit fraud are pretty bad at it. Years ago (like 20) we had a girl that leased a fully loaded 4 runner for her boyfriend because he couldn't qualify. Boyfriend jammed and left her the car and she couldn't afford it. Couple weeks later she turned in a theft claim. OC sheriff found the car cut up in dumpsters with vin tag still intact and video/finger prints that her and her brother decided to get rid of it the old way. They were convicted to the full extent of the law 15 years ago.

I just figured crash into a telephone pole or light it on fire lol

 

[Cole Trickle]

I just figured crash into a telephone pole or light it on fire lol

The telephone pole would be the best bet...They would figure out the fire...lol

Don't forget the helmet, hockey gear and hans device.

 

[EmpirE231]

I just figured crash into a telephone pole or light it on fire lol

I predict a lot of RV fires in the near future...

 

[NicPaus]

Young girl that works for me and husband bought a condo a year ago in bellflower for more than one would ever expect because it was cheaper than anything in standard oc...crazy

There landlord in Gardena passed away. Have to move. They can't afford current rent prices as he never raised it on them. And his kids want to sell. Have to move. Same house in Gardena is $170K more and they can't afford it. Other option was Hesperia but that's a hell of a commute to Torrance.

 

[pronstar]

Can’t afford the monthly but can fork out the cash to move? Assuming you’re in such a bad place you get zero money on the sale.

Cash for keys

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Riddle me this.

Why would someone try to sell a house right now they bought in August 2021 if the interest rate is so attractive?

I don't believe the entire market is willing to subscribe to the notion that because the interest rates on the mortgage are so good they should not sell.

Yes, some will raise families in those houses, and God bless them for the opportunity the low rates provided, but I believe this thread does not segregate the pikers who got caught in the game of musical chairs without a seat when the rates skyrocketed.

Most of the inventory (I find) is split between what appears to be investment properties and houses that seem like the owner passed away. Both sellers don't seem to grasp that they missed timing the market. I guess that we will need to wait another year for those folks to be in enough pain to admit defeat. I don't see families wanting to sell; I see empty houses and occasionally houses with renters.

Anyone who got a great rate is not currently looking to move up to a bigger house.

I'm in the market to buy; I don't care about the rates because I bought my first house at 7.5%, and we managed. I do care about putting a profit in someone's pocket who bought an investment property they hope to flip and make a quick $100K on in 12 months. Sorry, you missed it. I'm patient and can wait for a deal. Let's not forget this is not the time when inventory is traditionally excellent, yet I'm still seeing new listings in the areas I am shopping, all be it they are all still overpriced, IMHO.

All that said, for the right house, I would likely suck it up and pay.

 

[PaPaG]

Here's my opinion after 49 years of the grind. Short and to the point. If we stay on the course we are on, there will be a recession. 100 million people (that's a big number) will be inconvenienced by it and will have no change in their lives. This will be a full cross section of wealth and not based on income. People with money go on vacation and come back when it's over. People with recession proof jobs will wonder what the big deal is and bitch about the cost of things. The next 100 million people, regardless of income, will know shit has hit the fan. They will cut back on spending, use some savings if they have any and bridge loan themselves with credit cards. They'll lose net worth, delay retirement, worry what's going to happen next and some will exit their high mortgage for lower rent. The last 100 million people are the ones left holding the bag. Most of these people will be higher income. The true working man knows how to live on short money. Everything in this thread is about the last 200 million people in all walks of life. Your status, your neighborhood and your net worth won't help, if you made poor money decision and end up on the short end. Some will be caught up in it at no fault of their own and that is what makes me angry.

Well said.

 

[X Hoser]

Riddle me this.

Why would someone try to sell a house right now they bought in August 2021 if the interest rate is so attractive?

I don't believe the entire market is willing to subscribe to the notion that because the interest rates on the mortgage are so good they should not sell.

Yes, some will raise families in those houses, and God bless them for the opportunity the low rates provided, but I believe this thread does not segregate the pikers who got caught in the game of musical chairs without a seat when the rates skyrocketed.

Most of the inventory (I find) is split between what appears to be investment properties and houses that seem like the owner passed away. Both sellers don't seem to grasp that they missed timing the market. I guess that we will need to wait another year for those folks to be in enough pain to admit defeat. I don't see families wanting to sell; I see empty houses and occasionally houses with renters.

Anyone who got a great rate is not currently looking to move up to a bigger house.

I'm in the market to buy; I don't care about the rates because I bought my first house at 7.5%, and we managed. I do care about putting a profit in someone's pocket who bought an investment property they hope to flip and make a quick $100K on in 12 months. Sorry, you missed it. I'm patient and can wait for a deal. Let's not forget this is not the time when inventory is traditionally excellent, yet I'm still seeing new listings in the areas I am shopping, all be it they are all still overpriced, IMHO.

All that said, for the right house, I would likely suck it up and pay.

This is where we are at. Like I said earlier in this thread, at 71 we buy ripe bananas these days. To wait around for the market to drop, who knows how much, we found the place we wanted in the area we wanted and bought it! The builder discounted the price and threw in a lot of “extras” to put the deal together. We sold high so interest rates weren’t the deciding factor for us. The kids can worry about selling it when we are gone.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Riddle me this.

Why would someone try to sell a house right now they bought in August 2021 if the interest rate is so attractive?

I don't believe the entire market is willing to subscribe to the notion that because the interest rates on the mortgage are so good they should not sell.

Yes, some will raise families in those houses, and God bless them for the opportunity the low rates provided, but I believe this thread does not segregate the pikers who got caught in the game of musical chairs without a seat when the rates skyrocketed.

Most of the inventory (I find) is split between what appears to be investment properties and houses that seem like the owner passed away. Both sellers don't seem to grasp that they missed timing the market. I guess that we will need to wait another year for those folks to be in enough pain to admit defeat. I don't see families wanting to sell; I see empty houses and occasionally houses with renters.

Anyone who got a great rate is not currently looking to move up to a bigger house.

I'm in the market to buy; I don't care about the rates because I bought my first house at 7.5%, and we managed. I do care about putting a profit in someone's pocket who bought an investment property they hope to flip and make a quick $100K on in 12 months. Sorry, you missed it. I'm patient and can wait for a deal. Let's not forget this is not the time when inventory is traditionally excellent, yet I'm still seeing new listings in the areas I am shopping, all be it they are all still overpriced, IMHO.

All that said, for the right house, I would likely suck it up and pay.

You answered your riddle with your last sentence. There is always someone out there that will suck it up and pay…

 

[brgrcru]

According to the current pos in dc and msm
We are not in a recession yet
Give it time
If it was the other side pos in dc ,
Recession would be all
Over the msm

Things might get a lot worse or maybe not ?
Who knows ?

I know for a fact new homes are not being built in hyper sonic speed .
New home buyers are not. Buying in a frenzy

For some the recession has been well under way
For others not so much .

 

[Sportin' Wood]

You answered your riddle with your last sentence. There is always someone out there that will suck it up and pay…

I'm just hopeful the speculators will feel enough pain to reduce prices. So far, homes that have looked attractive to me have been sold for people who died or went into full-time care, and the kids are selling. The flippers can screw themselves; I don't want subway tile and lipstick on a pig. I guess HG TV will need to shift to more garden content, which would be a welcome change.

 

[Go-Fly]

Riddle me this.

Why would someone try to sell a house right now they bought in August 2021 if the interest rate is so attractive?

I don't believe the entire market is willing to subscribe to the notion that because the interest rates on the mortgage are so good they should not sell.

Yes, some will raise families in those houses, and God bless them for the opportunity the low rates provided, but I believe this thread does not segregate the pikers who got caught in the game of musical chairs without a seat when the rates skyrocketed.

Most of the inventory (I find) is split between what appears to be investment properties and houses that seem like the owner passed away. Both sellers don't seem to grasp that they missed timing the market. I guess that we will need to wait another year for those folks to be in enough pain to admit defeat. I don't see families wanting to sell; I see empty houses and occasionally houses with renters.

Anyone who got a great rate is not currently looking to move up to a bigger house.

I'm in the market to buy; I don't care about the rates because I bought my first house at 7.5%, and we managed. I do care about putting a profit in someone's pocket who bought an investment property they hope to flip and make a quick $100K on in 12 months. Sorry, you missed it. I'm patient and can wait for a deal. Let's not forget this is not the time when inventory is traditionally excellent, yet I'm still seeing new listings in the areas I am shopping, all be it they are all still overpriced, IMHO.

All that said, for the right house, I would likely suck it up and pay.

It's not a riddle. Investment money is still out there and people are still moving laterally. Most people like to move every 10 years and you always have death, divorce and job relocation. If you want to move, have a mortgage of $100k and a house that's worth $300k, that sells for $600k in todays bubble. You move for what ever the reason said and buy a house for $600k with a $100k mortgage. Outside of paying more in interest that can be adjusted later, your net worth hasn't changed. The value of that new to you home can devalue to $300k before you ever get hurt. The twist is, that for every chain of houses selling, there is one that is left at full todays market value. Someone has to pay $600k for a $300k house. It's the first time home buyer in fact or someone that moves to your state, that has to come up with an extra $300k by selling or savings to start the chain of sells. The first time home buyers have stopped buying and are sitting on their hands. That leaves vacant homes sitting on the market with a mortgage that needs to be paid. So you see houses selling for full list price, in two days on market and what you are seeing is the top of the chain that is the last to be effected. Someone has to take the hit and why would you do that when the house down the street just sold for full list price and the answer is, because they have too. That is where we are now and those houses are starting to sell for 2019-2018 prices. Foreclosures will go for much less. Find the house that has been on the market for 60 days or more, in a neighborhood where houses are selling in 7 days or less and put an offer on it that works for you. That's what I'm going to do today at 11:00am. I'm 90% sure I'll get it.

 

[baja-chris]

It’s kinda always been the case. Houses were once $40k then $80k then $160k then $320k now $640k. And during that time there were mortgages of 12% or more.

 

[pronstar]

You answered your riddle with your last sentence. There is always someone out there that will suck it up and pay…

And that’s how we determine value…what someone is willing to pay.

There’s also a train of thought called “the bigger fool theory” LOL

 

[240Hallett]

It's not a riddle. Investment money is still out there and people are still moving laterally. Most people like to move every 10 years and you always have death, divorce and job relocation. If you want to move, have a mortgage of $100k and a house that's worth $300k, that sells for $600k in todays bubble. You move for what ever the reason said and buy a house for $600k with a $100k mortgage. Outside of paying more in interest that can be adjusted later, your net worth hasn't changed. The value of that new to you home can devalue to $300k before you ever get hurt. The twist is, that for every chain of houses selling, there is one that is left at full todays market value. Someone has to pay $600k for a $300k house. It's the first time home buyer in fact or someone that moves to your state, that has to come up with an extra $300k by selling or savings to start the chain of sells. The first time home buyers have stopped buying and are sitting on their hands. That leaves vacant homes sitting on the market with a mortgage that needs to be paid. So you see houses selling for full list price, in two days on market and what you are seeing is the top of the chain that is the last to be effected. Someone has to take the hit and why would you do that when the house down the street just sold for full list price and the answer is, because they have too. That is where we are now and those houses are starting to sell for 2019-2018 prices. Foreclosures will go for much less. Find the house that has been on the market for 60 days or more, in a neighborhood where houses are selling in 7 days or less and put an offer on it that works for you. That's what I'm going to do today at 11:00am. I'm 90% sure I'll get it.

So, did you get it?

 

[shintoooo]

I think if rates drop to the 4's next year, we're going to see another push in real estate prices as those on the fence will jump in to buy and with low inventories this will push prices much higher. Inventories in my zip code are really low. Only about 45 homes for sale, down from 55-60 a couple months ago.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

I think if rates drop to the 4's next year, we're going to see another push in real estate prices as those on the fence will jump in to buy and with low inventories this will push prices much higher. Inventories in my zip code are really low. Only about 45 homes for sale, down from 55-60 a couple months ago.

If they drop in the 4% range you are right, but I can't imagine a drop that quickly. It may take less, to spin this chaos back up. Maybe a half-point drop?

 

[shintoooo]

If they drop in the 4% range you are right, but I can't imagine a drop that quickly. It may take less, to spin this chaos back up. Maybe a half-point drop?

I think rates need to get in the 4-5% range for people to get back in the market.

 

[RaceTec]

I am hoping to figure out that magic time right when prices drop and before interest rates drop so much that prices go back up! I wish my crystal ball was working!

 

[JLG614]

I am hoping to figure out that magic time right when prices drop and before interest rates drop so much that prices go back up! I wish my crystal ball was working!

I feel like we are sort of in that time. Prices are definitely down a little. I look all the time and the inventory is not great. I would say the best bet right now is to just start throwing low ball offers on anything that sparks your interest. Worst they can say is no

 

[EmpirE231]

I think if rates drop to the 4's next year, we're going to see another push in real estate prices as those on the fence will jump in to buy and with low inventories this will push prices much higher. Inventories in my zip code are really low. Only about 45 homes for sale, down from 55-60 a couple months ago.

If house prices take off again.... I'm selling!

gonna pack up the family in the RV and go camp in the Havasu desert.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

If house prices take off again.... I'm selling!

gonna pack up the family in the RV and go camp in the Havasu desert.

Bring pallets and drugs.

 

[c_land]

I think if rates drop to the 4's next year, we're going to see another push in real estate prices as those on the fence will jump in to buy and with low inventories this will push prices much higher. Inventories in my zip code are really low. Only about 45 homes for sale, down from 55-60 a couple months ago.

Spring will sure be interesting. Inventory would have usually been falling since july/august, but this year it peaked 4 weeks ago. Reset inventory at 500,000ish active listings for 1/1/23, and you could be approaching early 2020 inventory by summer. With how many anecdotes about pulled listings from the MLS in the fall or planning to list in the spring, it doesn't sound impossible.

Rates are anyone's guess. In the past month, bonds rally hard on days like today and then yields start to get slowly pulled upward again (maybe due to QT?).

Then there is still the question of demand outside of rates. How much demand was pulled forward because of low rates and other pandemic related influences? The Household Formation element of shelter demand goes well over my head, but it's interesting to read about:

“There is strong reason to believe that household growth is no longer getting the “boost” from behavioral changes as that suggested from March 2020 to March 2021. If that turns out to be true, then household growth is or will return back to growth more consistent with underlying population changes by age group, a development that would imply household growth over the next year of about half that apparently experienced from early 2021 to early 2022. Such a dramatic shift has major implications for projections of rent growth and home price growth next year.”

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-likely-dramatic-shift-in-household

 

[HNL2LHC]

Looked at our rental neighborhood back in Hawaii this afternoon. The sales have been on fire for a few years. Used to be 1-2 active listings, in escrow within a week, over ask, 6-8 in escrow and a sale every two weeks.

Tried to sell one of our rental just as it was cooling off. Not much action at the time except 2 low ballers.

THe market has certialnly changed. Today 7 active dating back 2 months, 1 escrow and last sale was 6 weeks ago. Holding onto the hat and grabbing for the belt and suspenders as I type.

 

[pronstar]

You can't renegotiate the purchase price, but you can refi the note if/when rates drop.

 

[Done-it-again]

Building like crazy by me.

 

[Go-Fly]

So, did you get it?

Not today. I put in a standing offer that expires 1/20/23. The house is a total redo, down to replacing the foundation. Now it's a wait and see. If someone figures out this is a $4m house property with a $1/2m house on it, they can burn down the old house, build new and still be ahead of the market.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Rates have already started their crawl back down in case anyone is wondering. 4.5% - 5.25% by end of Q1 2023 or earlier is definitely a possibility. Rates peaked already.

 

[Englewood]

Rates have already started their crawl back down in case anyone is wondering. 4.5% - 5.25% by end of Q1 2023 or earlier is definitely a possibility. Rates peaked already.

That is great news. That will cause a soft landing.

 

[zhandfull]

Rates have already started their crawl back down in case anyone is wondering. 4.5% - 5.25% by end of Q1 2023 or earlier is definitely a possibility. Rates peaked already.

Seems optimistic without a rate buy down. The Fed has indicated they will continue to raise till inflation is brought under control, and then hold. Fed funds rate will likely be 4.25 to 4.5% after today with more increases on the way in Q1.

I realize the two are not correlated, but to have new mortgage rates same or lower than the Fed funds rate seems unlikely to me.