For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[hallett21]

Right before Christmas? That seems insane?

Maybe early December means right before Christmas Eve?

Seems nuts to me but there’s a possibility that their commercial business is strictly retail in December.

 

[Done-it-again]

There are rumors that Amazon will be buying FedEx...

 

[hallett21]

There are rumors that Amazon will be buying FedEx...

That would be wild

 

[regor]

Right before Christmas? That seems insane?

That's what caught my eye also, very peculiar.

 

[Done-it-again]

That would be wild

Again, just a rumor that i heard last week and then this link with penis head's face.... IDK...

 

[COCA COLA COWBOY]

Lack of funding?

Lack of confidence in the market....

 

[MK1MOD0]

But, but, but no one is loosing their job, and everyone makes a six figure income........... yea, reality is going to be brutal coming soon. I really pray people have been watching their finances. It’s not looking pretty.

 

[hallett21]

Lack of confidence in the market....

How’d they get out of the escrow?

 

[hallett21]

But, but, but no one is loosing their job, and everyone makes a six figure income........... yea, reality is going to be brutal coming soon. I really pray people have been watching their finances. It’s not looking pretty.

It will be for those who live beyond their means. For those who still believe in a savings account there might be some opportunity

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

It will be for those who live beyond their means. For those who still believe in a savings account there might be some opportunity

Everyone is leveraged beyond their means except cash carrying RDP members.

 

[Go-Fly]

If you ever wanted to be a millionaire, 2023 will be laced in opportunity.

 

[HNL2LHC]

If you ever wanted to be a millionaire, 2023 will be laced in opportunity.

Millionaire? I doubt that the illegals coming across the boarders are willing to live that life of poverty. :looking:

 

[Havasu blue label]

If you ever wanted to be a millionaire, 2023 will be laced in opportunity.

It’s time for some for the smart ones to get ahead not everyone was handed mom and dad hard work

 

[Rogers Hopeful]

That's what caught my eye also, very peculiar.

Its LTL there peak season was back in aug/sept time frame... maybe with supply chain issues they waited an extra couple months.

 

[COCA COLA COWBOY]

How’d they get out of the escrow?

Inspection contingency. It's not a big deal getting out of an escrow. RE law protects buyers.

 

[Runs2rch]

If you ever wanted to be a millionaire, 2023 will be laced in opportunity.

Simple 3 step process?

 

[PaPaG]

But, but, but no one is loosing their job, and everyone makes a six figure income........... yea, reality is going to be brutal coming soon. I really pray people have been watching their finances. It’s not looking pretty.

And it is only going to get worse. The good side of this would be there are going to be many opportunities for those who planned for it and are ready to buy and have patience to wait out another 18 - 24 months before pulling triggers for toys, houses, investments.

 

[Go-Fly]

Simple 3 step process?

That would make a fun thread.

 

[Done-it-again]

I have to wait 1.5 to 2 yrs for a collapse now. What happened to the collapse that was going to happen this year? That can keeps getting kicked. Eventually someone is going to get it right.

 

[PaPaG]

I have to wait 1.5 to 2 yrs for a collapse now. What happened to the collapse that was going to happen this year? That can keeps getting kicked. Eventually someone is going to get it right.

It started a few months ago and it will take time for the fed rate to catch up, can't happen in weeks, or a few months, it takes a while. Timelines can change, longer, shorter etc all depends on rates increases and economy, cpi, and job losses which is picking up steam, patience is key.

 

[PaPaG]

JP Morgan Chase just announced a layoff of at least 1000 people and more to come due to the drastic drop in both housing purchases credited to CRAZY HOUSING MARKET slowing correcting and the doubling of interest rates..Redfin, Realtor.com did the same...YOU'VE seen Nothing YET.......if you planned on selling I hope you got it done or soon...if not expect some changes very soon. On the other hand, if you are a potential cash buyer TONS of great opportunities around the corner and from what I am guessing another 2 years of downturn and great prices to start very soon....

Not changing the ORIGINAL POST thoughts or guessed estimated timelines.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

It started a few months ago and it will take time for the fed rate to catch up, can't happen in weeks, or a few months, it takes a while. Timelines can change, longer, shorter etc all depends on rates increases and economy, cpi, and job losses which is picking up steam, patience is key.

Rates are not going up any more and the recession is over. Prove me wrong.

 

[Done-it-again]

It started a few months ago and it will take time for the fed rate to catch up, can't happen in weeks, or a few months, it takes a while. Timelines can change, longer, shorter etc all depends on rates increases and economy, cpi, and job losses which is picking up steam, patience is key.

I’m not looking to gain on the collapse. I’m more worried about keeping my 20 employees employed during a time of a collapse.

We (my father) weathered the 08 one, but it was not easy. Now this many years later I’m at the helm. We shall see.

 

[PaPaG]

Rates are not going up any more and the recession is over. Prove me wrong.

Rates are positively going to keep going up, hoping the fed does not raise more than .50 in Dec but if he does rates go up simple math. So you think home prices will stay at current levels with thousands of deals falling out of contract at current prices and rates? and you think the economy is stable? do you also think the massive increases in interest rates will not effect housing? Time will tell and with layoffs and downsizing picking up steam I think we are no where near the end. I hope I am wrong.

Just one of many Fed Governors that hint and warn of their next move.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said “we’ve still got a ways to go” before the US central bank stops raising interest rates, despite good news last week on consumer prices.

Fed’s Waller warns inflation fight isn’t over, interest rates will ‘keep going up’ despite prices cooling by more than expected© Andrew Harrer—Bloomberg via Getty Images
At the same time, policymakers can start considering whether to downshift their speed after four straight hikes of 75 basis points, and the Fed is considering a 50 basis-point hike at the next meeting in December or the one after that, Waller said.

“These rates are going to stay -- keep going up -- and they’re going to stay high for a while until we see this inflation get down closer to our target,” Waller said Monday at a UBS Group AG conference in Sydney. “We’ve still got a ways to go. This isn’t ending in the next meeting or two.”

The comments echoed remarks this month from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other colleagues who said interest-rate increases were far from over but the speed could possibly slow soon.

Waller has been one of the US central bank’s more hawkish policymakers advocating for tighter policy to cool price pressures.

 

[PaPaG]

I’m not looking to gain on the collapse. I’m more worried about keeping my 20 employees employed during a time of a collapse.

We (my father) weathered the 08 one, but it was not easy. Now this many years later I’m at the helm. We shall see.

I hope you do not lose one single employee and your business does not get effected. 08 was very hard on most of us but so many great opportunities were also the result. I don't wish anyone losing what they have worked hard for but it happens.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I have to wait 1.5 to 2 yrs for a collapse now. What happened to the collapse that was going to happen this year? That can keeps getting kicked. Eventually someone is going to get it right.

It’s been “18 months” going on 8 years now.

 

[PaPaG]

It’s been “18 months” going on 8 years now.

Are you talking about your Speed car delivery dates lol.....You need to learn to Read the original post, if you know how to read and comprehend instead of trying to tout knowing everything about everything Mr. Know it All you may understand..

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Are you talking about your Speed car delivery dates lol.....You need to learn to Read the original post, if you know how to read and comprehend instead of trying to tout knowing everything about everything Mr. Know it All you may understand..

I’m sure you light up the room at holiday parties.

This prognostication was “18 months” until the sky falls 6 months ago, and it is still “18 months” until the sky falls today.

When we are net loosing jobs for a quarter, start the 18 month clock. We aren’t there yet.

 

[COCA COLA COWBOY]

Rates are not going up any more and the recession is over. Prove me wrong.

Powell has repeatedly said he will not slow down until he nears 2% inflation. Currently we are a tick under 8%. I would and am betting big on a .75 increase in December. A CPI and PPI minute increase does more for the stock market than the reality of things going on. We are starting, just starting to get layoffs. This will increase dramatically after the first of the year.

What is really amazing, is how the market is currently almost mirroring 2008.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

Rates are positively going to keep going up, hoping the fed does not raise more than .50 in Dec but if he does rates go up simple math. So you think home prices will stay at current levels with thousands of deals falling out of contract at current prices and rates? and you think the economy is stable? do you also think the massive increases in interest rates will not effect housing? Time will tell and with layoffs and downsizing picking up steam I think we are no where near the end. I hope I am wrong.

I meant mortgage interest rates when I said rates will not increase I realize the fed target still has a few more small increases to do but those are priced into the 30 yr rate already. The rate increases already did their thing by bringing the market back to normal. The froth is off the market but no collapse is imminent. I’d be more worried if I saw the unemployment rate rapidly increasing. It doesn’t seem to be going up and for things to unravel it needs to move significantly higher

 

[PaPaG]

I meant mortgage interest rates when I said rates will not increase I realize the fed target still has a few more small increases to do but those are priced into the 30 yr rate already. The rate increases already did their thing by bringing the market back to normal. The froth is off the market but no collapse is imminent. I’d be more worried if I saw the unemployment rate rapidly increasing. It doesn’t seem to be going up and for things to unravel it needs to move significantly higher

I hope you are right. I am very worried that layoffs are increasing and gaining steam.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

Powell has repeatedly said he will not slow down until he nears 2% inflation. Currently we are a tick under 8%. I would and am betting big on a .75 increase in December. A CPI and PPI minute increase does more for the stock market than the reality of things going on. We are starting, just starting to get layoffs. This will increase dramatically after the first of the year.

What is really amazing, is how the market is currently almost mirroring 2008. View attachment 1172466

Core inflation is only 6% so it doesn’t have that far to drop.

 

[PaPaG]

I’m sure you light up the room at holiday parties.

From what all my friends say you are correct. I am sure you have a comment with great knowledge about holiday parties and what people should think as well... lol.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

From what all my friends say you are correct. I am sure you have a comment with great knowledge about holiday parties and what people should think as well... lol.

No, but for some reason Weekend at Bernie’s comes to mind.

But this entire thread is you telling everyone how they should think.

 

[PaPaG]

No, but for some reason Weekend at Bernie’s comes to mind.

But this entire thread is you telling everyone how they should think.

Deflect Deflect Deflect, you should go back and read some of your posts lol...Mr. Know It All at it again lol...

 

[Runs2rch]

No, but for some reason Weekend at Bernie’s comes to mind.

But this entire thread is you telling everyone how they should think.

You are reading into that. It is an open forum. You could choose to not view the thread?

 

[Done-it-again]

I hope you are right. I am very worried that layoffs are increasing and gaining steam.

I'm seeing more layoffs happening... But they are also from company's that just added people to deal with influx of work and their positions were made up to help, but in the end 2x the employees doesn't mean 2x the output.

to add: With these layoffs, hopefully wages come to normalize... Company's have been paying higher wages to fill a roll just to get people to work. $18 hr for McDonalds is crazy and that same person who couldn't get the order correct, still doesn't making $18-20hr....

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

You are reading into that. It is an open forum. You could choose to not view the thread?

I wish more people that complained about the content of an open forum followed that logic.

I’m not complaining, just wondering if there is a reason the prognostications here were so off base?

It’s been 18 months until the end for 7+ years.

We were advised to SELL NOW in the thread before this one.

The economy is still not net loosing jobs so we pushed the 18 months to financial armageddon out another 18-24 months.

This isn’t me reading into anything. It’s all right here

 

[PaPaG]

I wish more people that complained about the content of an open forum followed that logic.

I’m not complaining, just wondering if there is a reason the prognostications here were so off base?

It’s been 18 months until the end for 7+ years.

We were advised to SELL NOW in the thread before this one.

The economy is still not net loosing jobs so we pushed the 18 months to financial armageddon out another 18-24 months.

This isn’t me reading into anything. It’s all right here

You keep bringing up other old threads into this from years and years ago and cycles change, economy changes, housing changes, this thread is a recent thread that I posted near the end of June 2022 not 7 years ago, clearly stating 2 years just so you can see it again and stay on topic of this thread:

JP Morgan Chase just announced a layoff of at least 1000 people and more to come due to the drastic drop in both housing purchases credited to CRAZY HOUSING MARKET slowing correcting and the doubling of interest rates..Redfin, Realtor.com did the same...YOU'VE seen Nothing YET.......if you planned on selling I hope you got it done or soon...if not expect some changes very soon. On the other hand, if you are a potential cash buyer TONS of great opportunities around the corner and from what I am guessing another 2 years of downturn and great prices to start very soon....

See where it says GUESSING ANOTHER 2 YEARS OF DOWNTURN AND GREAT PRICES TO START VERY SOON? by my calculations 2 years from end of June 2022 to end of June 2024 that is currently 19 months away from today.....so I am well within my timeframe that I was GUESSING as stated. If you feel everything is just peachy right now with our economy and interest rates and nothing happening that is up too you, but try not to put in false info into this thread bringing in outdated information or trying to skew the topic with false information.

 

[530RL]

Wholesale prices rise slowly again and point to softening U.S. inflation

U.S. wholesale prices rose just 0.2% in October, a fourth straight soft reading that suggests inflation is on the wane after hitting a 40-year high earlier...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[EmpirE231]

I have to wait 1.5 to 2 yrs for a collapse now. What happened to the collapse that was going to happen this year? That can keeps getting kicked. Eventually someone is going to get it right.

we are currently in the stage of denial.... everyone recognizes we have a problem, but human nature likes to bury its head in the sand until everyone around them panics.

 

[TCHB]

Right before Christmas? That seems insane?

The p

Wholesale prices rise slowly again and point to softening U.S. inflation

U.S. wholesale prices rose just 0.2% in October, a fourth straight soft reading that suggests inflation is on the wane after hitting a 40-year high earlier...

www.marketwatch.com

erfect storm continues to build https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/15/hou...s-credit-card-use-surges-fed-report-says.html

 

[EmpirE231]

It’s been “18 months” going on 8 years now.

well you said to wake you when jobs shed...... they are shedding... at a pretty rapid pace. Is that no longer a problem?

 

[Havasu blue label]

And it is only going to get worse. The good side of this would be there are going to be many opportunities for those who planned for it and are ready to buy and have patience to wait out another 18 - 24 months before pulling triggers for toys, houses, investments.

Been waiting 1 year I guess 1 more won’t

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

well you said to wake you when jobs shed...... they are shedding... at a pretty rapid pace. Is that no longer a problem?

Those loan officers, Facebook and Twitter employees must have must have found work down the street or don’t own houses, because you said everyone is leveraged to the hilt and we’re one missed check away from financial ruin. It’s been another 18 months.. no RE crash yet!



Net job losses of actual homeowners. A loan officer living with their parents that loses their job does not affect the RE market

 

[EmpirE231]

Those loan officers, Facebook and Twitter employees must have must have found work down the street or don’t own houses, because you said everyone is leveraged to the hilt and we’re one missed check away from financial ruin. It’s been another 18 months.. no RE crash yet!



Net job losses of actual homeowners. A loan officer living with their parents that loses their job does not affect the RE market

so all those twitter, redfin, amazon, chase, etc etc fill in the blank employees were not homeowners.... got it!

RE listings sitting and falling out of escrow, prices being reduced is not a problem

nobody is in debt.... nothing to see here

US Household Debt Jumps Most Since 2008 Even as Credit-Card Rates Surge

(Bloomberg) -- US household debt climbed at the fastest annual pace since 2008 in the third quarter, with credit-card balances surging even as the interest rates that lenders charge to consumers hit a multi-decade high.Most Read from BloombergMusk Steps Up Purge of Twitter Engineers Who...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

so all those twitter, redfin, amazon, chase, etc etc fill in the blank employees were not homeowners.... got it!

RE listings sitting and falling out of escrow, prices being reduced is not a problem

nobody is in debt.... nothing to see here

US Household Debt Jumps Most Since 2008 Even as Credit-Card Rates Surge

(Bloomberg) -- US household debt climbed at the fastest annual pace since 2008 in the third quarter, with credit-card balances surging even as the interest rates that lenders charge to consumers hit a multi-decade high.Most Read from BloombergMusk Steps Up Purge of Twitter Engineers Who...

finance.yahoo.com

I’d better hold on to my hat .

When we start loosing net jobs for a quarter. The clock is ticking.

Most of the people you listed have severances for several months.

 

[EmpirE231]

I’d better hold on to my hat .

When we start loosing net jobs for a quarter. The clock is ticking.

Most of the people you listed have severances for several months.

Gotta say... I love the optimism

 

[PaPaG]

so all those twitter, redfin, amazon, chase, etc etc fill in the blank employees were not homeowners.... got it!

RE listings sitting and falling out of escrow, prices being reduced is not a problem

nobody is in debt.... nothing to see here

US Household Debt Jumps Most Since 2008 Even as Credit-Card Rates Surge

(Bloomberg) -- US household debt climbed at the fastest annual pace since 2008 in the third quarter, with credit-card balances surging even as the interest rates that lenders charge to consumers hit a multi-decade high.Most Read from BloombergMusk Steps Up Purge of Twitter Engineers Who...

finance.yahoo.com

And most of the terminated got only 3 months of severance pay, that only goes so far...once the shit really hits the fan watch it spread even further...

 

[DWC]

so all those twitter, redfin, amazon, chase, etc etc fill in the blank employees were not homeowners.... got it!

RE listings sitting and falling out of escrow, prices being reduced is not a problem

nobody is in debt.... nothing to see here

US Household Debt Jumps Most Since 2008 Even as Credit-Card Rates Surge

(Bloomberg) -- US household debt climbed at the fastest annual pace since 2008 in the third quarter, with credit-card balances surging even as the interest rates that lenders charge to consumers hit a multi-decade high.Most Read from BloombergMusk Steps Up Purge of Twitter Engineers Who...

finance.yahoo.com

80% of the annual new debt is mortgage based. Less than 10% is credit card based. Mostly younger, low income areas. I’m guessing most getting killed by gas/groceries. (Elections have consequences ). Gonna be an interesting end to this year for sure