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For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

DrunkenSailor

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I should have added that the reason why you won't see banks rushing to foreclose is due to loans being in profitable securitizations. The issuer can do a modification and continue to collect a large spread. The securitizations printed this year are a different story. They will all push for foreclosure as a reduction in interest is not an option and the loss severity on a foreclosure is going to at least generate cash flow for the deal that will chip away at the principal on the debt versus a modification on the underlying collateral.

If your loan was written in 2022 and beyond expect the bank to be aggressive on the foreclosure front. If written before that the bank will probably do everything they can to get you back into reperforming. This will depend on the makeup of the government as well. A liberal congress and Whitehouse = hamp 3.0. Conservative leadership probably means self regulation but that will be curbed by how bad things get.
 

Cdog

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I should have added that the reason why you won't see banks rushing to foreclose is due to loans being in profitable securitizations. The issuer can do a modification and continue to collect a large spread. The securitizations printed this year are a different story. They will all push for foreclosure as a reduction in interest is not an option and the loss severity on a foreclosure is going to at least generate cash flow for the deal that will chip away at the principal on the debt versus a modification on the underlying collateral.

If your loan was written in 2022 and beyond expect the bank to be aggressive on the foreclosure front. If written before that the bank will probably do everything they can to get you back into reperforming. This will depend on the makeup of the government as well. A liberal congress and Whitehouse = hamp 3.0. Conservative leadership probably means self regulation but that will be curbed by how bad things get.

Fingers crossed on the incoming "conservative leadership" forcing banks to liquidate assets to consumers and not investment funds like what happened with the kenyan.
 

pronstar

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Jeez…3 month pays more than 10 and 30 year 😳

CBE83FB7-CEC3-49FC-AB00-B8548733CF95.png
 

EmpirE231

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Where? I have a bunch of idle cash I would love to earn SOMETHING on.
IDK about 10% unless you're getting bonds.... but most money market accounts are currently around 3%, you can find CD's around 4% for short terms (6-12months)
 

Dalton

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So if rates are currently at 6-7% and they are expected to go upwards of 10%.. What would be the benefit of not purchasing now?

Or are we all thinking they are going to drop down into the free money ranges again? If so how long does that cycle take? 10 years? 5 years?

RD

It takes time for asking prices to adjust to interest rates, things are still priced like you can get 3% mortgages
 

coolchange

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I bonds are 6 something now, you may want to try website, it blows.
I made a mistake on my form and I have to mail a form to get it rectified in 10-13 weeks. SHIT. I only got 1.
 

PRORACER7474

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last week you could have got 9.62% on a 1 year IBOND, you can get close to your target on 3 month T Bills now. what are you waiting for?
i want a long term deal so i can plan my income for at least 10 years out
 

boatnam2

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I made a mistake on my form and I have to mail a form to get it rectified in 10-13 weeks. SHIT. I only got 1.
I'm going with 2driver and laddering t-bills, be over 5% soon, but i'm 60 so game plan might be a little different than someone younger.
 

monkeyswrench

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The "town limits" are 5 miles down the road. Town has been making big money on permits and taxes on all the new homes. A new tract broke ground 3-4 months ago. Semi-custom, I believe 50-60 homes planned. Dirt's cut to pad grade, utilities going in the ground. 18 "buyers" pulled out in the past several weeks. Town permits and fees were said to be refunded:oops: Just that tract, if true, set the town back a considerable amount...new build permits and "soil impact fees" are almost 10k now.

This tract going up is being built by the same developers that have done several in the immediate area. These were planned out to be kind of like Havasu homes, with the large attached rv garage. One of their other projects, just across the road, are smaller homes and yards. Wife and I noticed those have the giant signs for "new models" and "open house"...in the 10 years we've been here, no tract has needed those.
 

bk2drvr

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The "town limits" are 5 miles down the road. Town has been making big money on permits and taxes on all the new homes. A new tract broke ground 3-4 months ago. Semi-custom, I believe 50-60 homes planned. Dirt's cut to pad grade, utilities going in the ground. 18 "buyers" pulled out in the past several weeks. Town permits and fees were said to be refunded:oops: Just that tract, if true, set the town back a considerable amount...new build permits and "soil impact fees" are almost 10k now.

This tract going up is being built by the same developers that have done several in the immediate area. These were planned out to be kind of like Havasu homes, with the large attached rv garage. One of their other projects, just across the road, are smaller homes and yards. Wife and I noticed those have the giant signs for "new models" and "open house"...in the 10 years we've been here, no tract has needed those.
Where is this?
 

monkeyswrench

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Most would think that a derogatory statement...but I live in "Coyote Springs", and up until about 1980 it was still called "Jackass Flats"
You know damn well I want to put a sign up on my shop "Jackass Flats Repair" with me as the head jackass😉
 
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boatnam2

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I made a mistake on my form and I have to mail a form to get it rectified in 10-13 weeks. SHIT. I only got 1.
That is what i heard, i can be a pain, i have 10k in it, i don't even log in its such a pain.
 

coolchange

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That is what i heard, i can be a pain, i have 10k in it, i don't even log in its such a pain.
I put the wrong address, I’ve recently moved. So I only open one in the wife’s name. Pre deadline it wouldn’t log me on, from traffic I assume, so woke up after midnight and got right in.
 

regor

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BabyRay

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last week you could have got 9.62% on a 1 year IBOND, you can get close to your target on 3 month T Bills now. what are you waiting for?
I bought ibonds a few months ago, and locked in some good rates. I also bought them for my daughter and son-in-law, and gifted them. And bought one for each of several LLC’s that we have set up. You can only invest $10k in each, so this helped a bit.
 

pronstar

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Conveniently absent form the talking heads narrative, is the historically low number of people actually working.


The labor force participation rate reflects the active workforce -- the percentage of civilian, non-institutionalized workers available for the production of goods and services, so the higher, the better.

The participation rate was 61.4 percent when Joe Biden took office as the pandemic raged. Today's number, 62.2 percent, is still more than a point below the Trump-era high of 63.4 percent recorded in February 2020, just before COVID shut things down.

After rising for more than three decades, the overall labor force participation rate peaked in early 2000 at 67.3 percent and subsequently trended down. In recent years, baby-boom retirements have contributed to the decline in the overall participation rate.

The number of Americans not in the labor force -- they have no job and are not looking for one -- also moved in the wrong direction last month, increasing 201,000 to 99,868,000.
 

mbrown2

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The number of Americans not in the labor force -- they have no job and are not looking for one -- also moved in the wrong direction last month, increasing 201,000 to 99,868,000.
Something seems off about this increase....from 201K to 99M...that is almost a 3rd of the total population which includes kids and elderly...
 

monkeyswrench

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Heard on the radio that the average full time employee now is 30-point- something hours a week? Huh?
When I was an "average" American worker doing "average" type weeks, 40 hours was "short". Are companies cutting back hours? When did anything under 40 become full-time?
 

Hypnautic

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Heard on the radio that the average full time employee now is 30-point- something hours a week? Huh?
When I was an "average" American worker doing "average" type weeks, 40 hours was "short". Are companies cutting back hours? When did anything under 40 become full-time?
Our company has put everyone that is hourly on a 32 hour week. This allows them to keep benefits.
Some other employees were furloughed for 30 days instead of being laid off.
All employees that are on salary--took a 10% reduction in pay for 90 days.
 

monkeyswrench

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Our company has put everyone that is hourly on a 32 hour week. This allows them to keep benefits.
Some other employees were furloughed for 30 days instead of being laid off.
All employees that are on salary--took a 10% reduction in pay for 90 days.
At least they kept insurance.
10 years ago my last employer furloughed me...when they called me back I was gone. Not ever a good sign to be temporarily fired.
 

WhatExit?

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hallett21

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WhatExit?

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Can’t see the chart if you’re not a member.
I'm not a member and it opens right up for me

It plays (starts at the left and runs to the right showing the changes) - here's the static version

Screen Shot 2022-11-05 at 11.32.03 AM.png


Here's the article text:

Will California’s housing market crash again or only modestly correct the overzealous buying of the pandemic era?

Instead, might homebuying just chill a bit?

As 2022 winds down, the market languishes as mortgage rates soar off record lows. Pricier financing is pruning those who can afford to buy. Those same high rates – a strategy by the Federal Reserve to cool an overheated economy – could ice the job market, which is so critical to robust homebuying.

The result is that recent huge price gains across the state are morphing into projections of noteworthy losses.

You know, it’s been a decade-and-a-half since housing rapidly turned from boom to bust. Let’s refresh our memories about California market downturns and where we’ll likely find clues about what’s ahead.

My trusty spreadsheet was filled with state home-price data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency dating to 1976 plus assorted economic and real estate variables. The goal was to create a guide to watching a market meltdown – or whatever you want to call the first grand housing upheaval since the Great Recession.

Yes, history certainly is no perfect guide for the next move. “It’s different this time” is always sort of true. But tripping down memory lane often can offer hints for California’s homebuying future.

California’s different​

California housing is a very different animal than other U.S. markets – especially its price gyrations.

There’s a 25% chance that California home prices are falling, going back a half-century. That’s the fourth-highest loss rate among the states.

Meanwhile, there’s only a 16% loss rate for all states.

Yes, it’s a bumpier ride for Golden State homeowners, but they’re well compensated for those losses. Statewide home prices averaged 7.1% yearly gains since 1977, trailing only Washington, D.C. across the nation.

Compare those increases to the average gain for all states of 4.9%.

Jobs. Jobs. Jobs.​

You need a paycheck to own a home, so consider housing hints dropped by swings in California’s jobless rate.

When unemployment is down over 12 months – like today’s job market – there is only a 15% chance of home-price declines in the next year.

But when joblessness is rising, there’s a 51% chance of home-price loss.

Or look at this key housing factor this way: When unemployment is falling, prices average 9% gains in the next year. When joblessness is up, appreciation runs just 1% annually.

It’s the economy, stupid​

Housing demand requires growing paychecks.

To track housing’s ties to broader economic progress, I created a California cash flow benchmark measuring the growth of the total statewide income minus the inflation rate. This measure has averaged 2.9% annual growth since 1977.

Any rise in this income yardstick translates to only a 21% chance of home-price declines the next year. These rising incomes created 8% average home-price gains.

But when California incomes fell, prices dropped 63% of the time. And those dips translate to an average 3% home-price loss.

Note: This income yardstick has fallen in the past four quarters.

Rate reversals​

The cost of borrowing money doesn’t hit home prices as you might think.

That’s because interest rates typically rise when the economy is hot. And as you’ve just learned, growing economies can boost home values.

So when mortgage rates have risen in the years since 1977 – only 40% of the time – there’s only a 14% chance of California home-price losses the following year.

But when rates fall, that’s often a signal of a sour business climate. And when mortgages are getting cheaper, 35% of the time California home price declines follow. The pandemic era’s surging prices clearly look like an anomaly.

So don’t be quick to root for cheaper mortgages. When rates are up, an average 10% home-price gain comes next. When rates are down, the next year’s gains run only 4%.

Do sales matter?​

The ups and downs of sales counts aren’t just stats for the real estate industry.

Californians bought single-family homes at a 305,000-a-year rate in the three months ending in September, according to state Realtors. That’s the slowest quarterly buying pace in 14 years.

Summer sales were down 20% from the spring quarter – the second-largest three-month drop in this Realtor data that dates to 1990 – and off 29% from a year earlier – the fifth-largest 12-month drop.

Such dramatic drops suggest California sales have already crashed. And sales drops do impact pricing.

Appreciation measured by the California Association of Realtors’ price index went from 17% annually to 2% the past year – a 15 percentage-point slowdown. It’s no outlier.

Since 1990, when California buying declines by 10% or more in a year, the rate of appreciation shrinks on average by 4 percentage points.

Which index to watch?​

Let me try to over-simplify most of the price yardsticks.

Geography: California pricing varies wildly from north to south, and coast vs. inland. Note that smaller areas often mean more volatile results.

Homes covered: Certain indexes look at all homes while others focus on single-family residences. Whether new homes are included is another variance. So, it depends if you’re tracking housing’s “core” – the existing single-family house – or taking a broader view.

Simple math: The median selling price – reported by the likes of CoreLogic and Realtors – is the midpoint paid on all sales. Moves in this metric, typically released shortly after a month ends, can be early warning signs of trouble ahead.

Fancy math: The Federal Housing Finance Agency indexes I used for this analysis and the widely discussed Case-Shiller indexes are created by “paired-sales” logic. This looks at price changes on each single-family house sold over a three-month period. This math takes time, so there’s a two-month lag in reporting. We typically use these numbers to confirm trends shown in other indexes.

Is there a best one? No, they’re best viewed collectively.

Wordsmithing​

Crash? Correction? Chill?

History tells us California prices by the FHFA measure dropped in 46 of 186 quarters on a year-over-year basis — only three states have more dips.

And the median California loss among those declines was 4%. Only 11 states having deeper drops.

To me, a market “chill” is a modest slowdown. I’d suggest any 12-month California price drop smaller than the 4% median loss fits the “chill” definition.

Now double-digit losses over 12 months sound painful. And such slides happened just eight times in California in a half-century, so they’re a rarity. Thus, a “crash” could be seen as any 12-month drop of 10% or more.

That would mean a “correction” – the downturns between crash and chill – are price declines between 4% and 10% a year.

Please understand this is my home-price glossary. Yet whatever labels you prefer, the big question for California housing has changed from “big gains or not?” to “How big will the dip be?”

And watching only real estate benchmarks won’t give you the full picture.
 

jet496

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I'm not a member and it opens right up for me

It plays (starts at the left and runs to the right showing the changes) - here's the static version

View attachment 1169360

Here's the article text:

Will California’s housing market crash again or only modestly correct the overzealous buying of the pandemic era?

Instead, might homebuying just chill a bit?

As 2022 winds down, the market languishes as mortgage rates soar off record lows. Pricier financing is pruning those who can afford to buy. Those same high rates – a strategy by the Federal Reserve to cool an overheated economy – could ice the job market, which is so critical to robust homebuying.

The result is that recent huge price gains across the state are morphing into projections of noteworthy losses.

You know, it’s been a decade-and-a-half since housing rapidly turned from boom to bust. Let’s refresh our memories about California market downturns and where we’ll likely find clues about what’s ahead.

My trusty spreadsheet was filled with state home-price data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency dating to 1976 plus assorted economic and real estate variables. The goal was to create a guide to watching a market meltdown – or whatever you want to call the first grand housing upheaval since the Great Recession.

Yes, history certainly is no perfect guide for the next move. “It’s different this time” is always sort of true. But tripping down memory lane often can offer hints for California’s homebuying future.

California’s different​

California housing is a very different animal than other U.S. markets – especially its price gyrations.

There’s a 25% chance that California home prices are falling, going back a half-century. That’s the fourth-highest loss rate among the states.

Meanwhile, there’s only a 16% loss rate for all states.

Yes, it’s a bumpier ride for Golden State homeowners, but they’re well compensated for those losses. Statewide home prices averaged 7.1% yearly gains since 1977, trailing only Washington, D.C. across the nation.

Compare those increases to the average gain for all states of 4.9%.

Jobs. Jobs. Jobs.​

You need a paycheck to own a home, so consider housing hints dropped by swings in California’s jobless rate.

When unemployment is down over 12 months – like today’s job market – there is only a 15% chance of home-price declines in the next year.

But when joblessness is rising, there’s a 51% chance of home-price loss.

Or look at this key housing factor this way: When unemployment is falling, prices average 9% gains in the next year. When joblessness is up, appreciation runs just 1% annually.

It’s the economy, stupid​

Housing demand requires growing paychecks.

To track housing’s ties to broader economic progress, I created a California cash flow benchmark measuring the growth of the total statewide income minus the inflation rate. This measure has averaged 2.9% annual growth since 1977.

Any rise in this income yardstick translates to only a 21% chance of home-price declines the next year. These rising incomes created 8% average home-price gains.

But when California incomes fell, prices dropped 63% of the time. And those dips translate to an average 3% home-price loss.

Note: This income yardstick has fallen in the past four quarters.

Rate reversals​

The cost of borrowing money doesn’t hit home prices as you might think.

That’s because interest rates typically rise when the economy is hot. And as you’ve just learned, growing economies can boost home values.

So when mortgage rates have risen in the years since 1977 – only 40% of the time – there’s only a 14% chance of California home-price losses the following year.

But when rates fall, that’s often a signal of a sour business climate. And when mortgages are getting cheaper, 35% of the time California home price declines follow. The pandemic era’s surging prices clearly look like an anomaly.

So don’t be quick to root for cheaper mortgages. When rates are up, an average 10% home-price gain comes next. When rates are down, the next year’s gains run only 4%.

Do sales matter?​

The ups and downs of sales counts aren’t just stats for the real estate industry.

Californians bought single-family homes at a 305,000-a-year rate in the three months ending in September, according to state Realtors. That’s the slowest quarterly buying pace in 14 years.

Summer sales were down 20% from the spring quarter – the second-largest three-month drop in this Realtor data that dates to 1990 – and off 29% from a year earlier – the fifth-largest 12-month drop.

Such dramatic drops suggest California sales have already crashed. And sales drops do impact pricing.

Appreciation measured by the California Association of Realtors’ price index went from 17% annually to 2% the past year – a 15 percentage-point slowdown. It’s no outlier.

Since 1990, when California buying declines by 10% or more in a year, the rate of appreciation shrinks on average by 4 percentage points.

Which index to watch?​

Let me try to over-simplify most of the price yardsticks.

Geography: California pricing varies wildly from north to south, and coast vs. inland. Note that smaller areas often mean more volatile results.

Homes covered: Certain indexes look at all homes while others focus on single-family residences. Whether new homes are included is another variance. So, it depends if you’re tracking housing’s “core” – the existing single-family house – or taking a broader view.

Simple math: The median selling price – reported by the likes of CoreLogic and Realtors – is the midpoint paid on all sales. Moves in this metric, typically released shortly after a month ends, can be early warning signs of trouble ahead.

Fancy math: The Federal Housing Finance Agency indexes I used for this analysis and the widely discussed Case-Shiller indexes are created by “paired-sales” logic. This looks at price changes on each single-family house sold over a three-month period. This math takes time, so there’s a two-month lag in reporting. We typically use these numbers to confirm trends shown in other indexes.

Is there a best one? No, they’re best viewed collectively.

Wordsmithing​

Crash? Correction? Chill?

History tells us California prices by the FHFA measure dropped in 46 of 186 quarters on a year-over-year basis — only three states have more dips.

And the median California loss among those declines was 4%. Only 11 states having deeper drops.

To me, a market “chill” is a modest slowdown. I’d suggest any 12-month California price drop smaller than the 4% median loss fits the “chill” definition.

Now double-digit losses over 12 months sound painful. And such slides happened just eight times in California in a half-century, so they’re a rarity. Thus, a “crash” could be seen as any 12-month drop of 10% or more.

That would mean a “correction” – the downturns between crash and chill – are price declines between 4% and 10% a year.

Please understand this is my home-price glossary. Yet whatever labels you prefer, the big question for California housing has changed from “big gains or not?” to “How big will the dip be?”

And watching only real estate benchmarks won’t give you the full picture.
So, they're saying they have no idea, just took them a lot of words to say it. LOL.
 

attitude

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Just got an email update on Hurricane UT from Zillow. In the last 30 days 84 homes have been listed and 3 homes have been sold. Prices are still about 40-50% higher then what I remember in 2019.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Just got an email update on Hurricane UT from Zillow. In the last 30 days 84 homes have been listed and 3 homes have been sold. Prices are still about 40-50% higher then what I remember in 2019.

I’ve watched 10 people move in just in the last 2 weeks within 1/2 mile of my house. Keep in mind RE transactions in UT are private by law, and aren’t broadcast on Zillow.
 

attitude

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I’ve watched 10 people move in just in the last 2 weeks within 1/2 mile of my house. Keep in mind RE transactions in UT are private by law, and aren’t broadcast on Zillow.
Interesting, are any homes up their getting bought and turned into rentals? I noticed while looking for a new rental that there were quit a few bought and immediately put up for rent.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Interesting, are any homes up their getting bought and turned into rentals? I noticed while looking for a new rental that there were quit a few bought and immediately put up for rent.

Yes, a few around my neighborhood. Not the majority or even close to it by any means though. The private nature of the transactions makes it really hard to track here.
 

78Southwind

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HTMike

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Meta / Facebook lays off 11k

interesting letter... desk sharing to reduce real estate footprint lol... they might have to get rid of the ping pong tables and latte machines


Who was it that said they wouldn't worry about shit until there was mass layoffs ??

In my industry (trucking ) they are laying off/firing everyone. Fucking ugly out there.
 

arch stanton

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Who was it that said they wouldn't worry about shit until there was mass layoffs ??

In my industry (trucking ) they are laying off/firing everyone. Fucking ugly out there.
What part part of the trucking industry ? I'm in dump trucking mainly dirt and Lowbed moving yellow iron we are still busy hear in San Diego county.
I was talking with my insurance agent and she was saying she has clients in northern California that have been slowing for months and are have problems making their insurance payments both dump trucking and intrastate freight.
For those not in this industry you can miss 3 truck payments before you get it repossessed but if you miss your insurance payment you are done I don't think they will give more than 7 days grace period. The insurance company informs all your brokers and all additional insureds plus the state and feds.
 
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