For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[LargeOrangeFont]

That’s after the after the crash

It’s been 90 days, we are already there.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Here is an interesting house on the market. Cute and clean with a fairly large lot that has been sitting. For all I know the quality of work might be lacking and the reason it is sitting. But they are certainly lowering the price aggressively…..

View attachment 1160094

That wasn’t worth $469 in March, certainly not in July.

Lot is cool though and it is interesting.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

That wasn’t worth $469 in March, certainly not in July.

bought for 210 last year. I like the nice clean garage but the living room/kitchen space looks really small. I'd be worried that its just lipstick on a pig as they say or just builder grade stuff that looks nice but doesn't age well.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

bought for 210 last year. I like the nice clean garage but the living room/kitchen space looks really small. I'd be worried that its just lipstick on a pig as they say or just builder grade stuff that looks nice but doesn't age well.

Totally.

 

[HNL2LHC]

That wasn’t worth $469 in March, certainly not in July.

Lot is cool though and it is interesting.

I think that it was a solid mid to low 4 back July. But it will be a high 3 if they are lucky now. That is about a 10% swing in a few months. Then you have the interest rates. What are we now…..7%. We have been looking for a house for our son to buy. But with the way of the market. Might be best to build a mixed use on our lot instead. Don’t really need another house to deal with at this point in time..…

 

[PaPaG]

100k based on a closed comparable?
or the “ if someone will buy it for this price I’ll sell it” price?

That’s the real question we won’t know the answer to until it happens.

It’s likely we will see rates in the 3-4 range 6-8 months before the next presidential election. I’ll go on record. I bet this will re inflate things.

It’s all political

100k less, Based on what houses were selling/closing for when I started this thread is just my opinion, we never know what the fed is going to do all we can do is wait and see. I hope rates are back down to 3 or 4%, strange market for sure.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

One more general comment. I feel inventory numbers are actually stable at the moment. I think back in late spring Havasu was 300+ and now it seems to be stuck in the high 400s for an extended period of time and its still historically "low". I've heard a few people grumbling about Airbnb problems as in not enough occupancy.

Also you can't just say "100K less" it has to be a percentage. 100K on a 400K house is 25% but only 10% on a $1M house. So my unscientific estimate on $400-500K house is down 10-12% which would be $40-60K sounds about right. Yeah I just made that up.

 

[Havasu blue label]

According to mr orange everybody has a 3 percent loans and no helocs

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I think that it was a solid mid to low 4 back July. But it will be a high 3 if they are lucky now. That is about a 10% swing in a few months. Then you have the interest rates. What are we now…..7%. We have been looking for a house for our son to buy. But with the way of the market. Might be best to build a mixed use on our lot instead. Don’t really need another house to deal with at this point in time..…

Yes, they got greedy and the situation deteriorated for them. We are going round and round on what the market was, is and will be, but people are just throwing out numbers on these properties.

That house will sell at a total 30% price drop most likely…but I’m not sure that is reflective of the market as a whole, I think it is more a byproduct of poor marketing, or an owner that did not understand the current market.

 

[hallett21]

Here’s a good example of someone who just went crazy on the asking.

Sold for 350 in 2022. My guess is that the pool was added and the kitchen/bathrooms got a quick makeover. Less than 100k in work.

489,000 seems steep to me for what it is. I’m not sure that’s indicative of a crash though. At 350k the house was maxed out, adding the pool and cleaning up the interior maybe added 25k in resale value.

3377 Pioneer Dr, Lake Havasu City, AZ 86404 | Zillow

3377 Pioneer Dr, Lake Havasu City AZ, is a Single Family home that contains 1287 sq ft and was built in 1995.It contains 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms.This home last sold for $350,000 in March 2022. The Rent Zestimate for this Single Family is $1,955/mo, which has increased by $1,955/mo in the...

www.zillow.com

 

[hallett21]

This one is just down the street from the above.

Easily could add the small pool and clean up the house for 100k. Maybe 125k. But then you’ve got a home that’s not going to sell for 450+.

Which is ok. The last 10 years have made the idea of “flipping” normal. Look at every HGTV show. You used to buy a home, remodel and then use it for at least 5-10 years before you would make a decent profit.

3359 Pioneer Dr, Lake Havasu City, AZ 86404 | Zillow

3359 Pioneer Dr, Lake Havasu City AZ, is a Single Family home that contains 1700 sq ft and was built in 1973.It contains 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms.This home last sold for $339,000 in October 2022. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $416,000, which has increased by $3,158 in the last 30...

www.zillow.com

 

[Desert Whaler]

This one is just down the street from the above.

Easily could add the small pool and clean up the house for 100k. Maybe 125k. But then you’ve got a home that’s not going to sell for 450+.

Which is ok. The last 10 years have made the idea of “flipping” normal. Look at every HGTV show. You used to buy a home, remodel and then use it for at least 5-10 years before you would make a decent profit.

3359 Pioneer Dr, Lake Havasu City, AZ 86404 | Zillow

3359 Pioneer Dr, Lake Havasu City AZ, is a Single Family home that contains 1700 sq ft and was built in 1973.It contains 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms.This home last sold for $339,000 in October 2022. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $416,000, which has increased by $3,158 in the last 30...

www.zillow.com

Take a look at how that Lot is situated on Google Maps / Earth . . . I've never seen a house / lot wedged in like that !

 

[hallett21]

Take a look at how that Lot is situated on Google Maps / Earth . . . iver never seen a house / lot wedged in like that !

It’s down the street from our house. I wouldn’t have even known it existed until you see the for sale sign at the end of the driveway. Funky for sure. But with the right person it could be a cool little river pad.

 

[COCA COLA COWBOY]

It’s been 90 days, we are already there.

Hasn't even started yet! Next year will be rough. I'm forecasting prices to return to 2020 pricing.

 

[hallett21]

Hasn't even started yet! Next year will be rough. I'm forecasting prices to return to 2020 pricing.

So 365 days is the new clock?

 

[COCA COLA COWBOY]

So 365 days is the new clock?

No one can give you an accurate number when the big blow down will have concluded. I have heard quite a few that I value their forecasting say Summer of 2023 will be the next buy time. That's about as long and I can hold out so that's what I am going with for my circumstances.

 

[J&k beer can]

The value in havasu is having a rv-boat garage and a pool. That's what attracts buyer(most)and there looking for.

We added the rv-boat garage to our small house and the value went up big on appraisal for refi on lower rate.
It would sell quick just for having pool n big garage and walled in private back yard. Even being smaller home.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

No one can give you an accurate number when the big blow down will have concluded. I have heard quite a few that I value their forecasting say Summer of 2023 will be the next buy time. That's about as long and I can hold out so that's what I am going with for my circumstances.

He’s being facetious as when these threads started in April and May the sky was falling and homes were supposed to be 30-50% cheaper by now.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

Median home prices in orange county have dropped below 1 million.

 

[COCA COLA COWBOY]

He’s being facetious as when these threads started in April and May the sky was falling and homes were supposed to be 30-50% cheaper by now.

Real estate just does not go down that fast. 25% in a year is huge and more consistent with the factors at hand.

I'd have to see the updated number, but I believe we are down approximately 8% at the moment.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Real estate just does not go down that fast. 25% in a year is huge and more consistent with the factors at hand.

I'd have to see the updated number, but I believe we are down approximately 8% at the moment.

I agree with you, and that is why this thread has gone round and round. This is not last time, but people seem to forget last time it was 6 years from peak to trough - 2006 to 2012. Even if this cycle is 25% as long.. that is still 18 months from peak to trough.. and at this point that still seems a little short to me, and it did in March as well. I’m thinking 2-3 years. The economy has not even net lost jobs yet.

 

[bentprops]

in 2005 i sold my house in cali, i told the agnet the market was going to crash. She said oh no. it will just go sideways. I explained to her it going sideways is what will cause it to crash. Because RE agents, mortages brokers, land scrapers, builders, pool builders, remodelers flipers car and boat sales men, rv sales men and ect ect ect would loss there job. Thats what will make it crash.

I bring this up becsue the Heads of RE companys have now swithed there satance to the market will now go sideways.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

in 2005 i sold my house in cali, i told the agnet the market was going to crash. She said oh no. it will just go sideways. I explained to her it going sideways is what will cause it to crash. Because RE agents, mortages brokers, land scrapers, builders, pool builders, remodelers flipers car and boat sales men, rv sales men and ect ect ect would loss there job. Thats what will make it crash.

I bring this up becsue the Heads of RE companys have now swithed there satance to the market will now go sideways.

It will go sideways until enough people lose their jobs

 

[hallett21]

in 2005 i sold my house in cali, i told the agnet the market was going to crash. She said oh no. it will just go sideways. I explained to her it going sideways is what will cause it to crash. Because RE agents, mortages brokers, land scrapers, builders, pool builders, remodelers flipers car and boat sales men, rv sales men and ect ect ect would loss there job. Thats what will make it crash.

I bring this up becsue the Heads of RE companys have now swithed there satance to the market will now go sideways.

It went sideways and everyone’s mortgage started doubling and tripling

 

[COCA COLA COWBOY]

I agree with you, and that is why this thread has gone round and round. This is not last time, but people seem to forget last time it was 6 years from peak to trough - 2006 to 2012. Even if this cycle is 25% as long.. that is still 18 months from peak to trough.. and at this point that still seems a little short to me, and it did in March as well. I’m thinking 2-3 years. The economy has not even net lost jobs yet.

I don't think it is worth waiting for the bottom for real estate. The initial hit took prices deep enough to make it a buy time. After the first 18 months, the declines were slight year after year.

Remember, for the stock market and real estate, there is a propensity for it to incline/increase. Basically, the market wants to go up so the bets against it have to be watched consistently and regularly. There are so many factors against it right now that the bet is strong.

Homes are purchased via affordability. Typical buyers get pre-approved and the number they can afford determines what they can buy. Homes are not affordable due to interest rates and rates will continue to rise until inflation recedes to 2%. We have a ways to go. I'll start shopping when I see inflation hit 2% because that will be the trigger for rates to decline which would prompt prices to turn.

 

[badgas]

Yes!!!!

This thread is still going strong

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I don't think it is worth waiting for the bottom for real estate. The initial hit took prices deep enough to make it a buy time. After the first 18 months, the declines were slight year after year.

Remember, for the stock market and real estate, there is a propensity for it to incline/increase. Basically, the market wants to go up so the bets against it have to be watched consistently and regularly. There are so many factors against it right now that the bet is strong.

Homes are purchased via affordability. Typical buyers get pre-approved and the number they can afford determines what they can buy. Homes are not affordable due to interest rates and rates will continue to rise until inflation recedes to 2%. We have a ways to go. I'll start shopping when I see inflation hit 2% because that will be the trigger for rates to decline which would prompt prices to turn.

I agree completely. If you are in the property right for your situation the price does not matter much.

The last decline was a little different as the .gov propped up the market in 09 with incentives.

My house I bought in late 09 dropped another 12% by 2011/2012.

My point is the dip will be long enough to get into the market.

 

[MSum661]

I don't think it is worth waiting for the bottom for real estate. The initial hit took prices deep enough to make it a buy time. After the first 18 months, the declines were slight year after year.

Remember, for the stock market and real estate, there is a propensity for it to incline/increase. Basically, the market wants to go up so the bets against it have to be watched consistently and regularly. There are so many factors against it right now that the bet is strong.

Homes are purchased via affordability. Typical buyers get pre-approved and the number they can afford determines what they can buy. Homes are not affordable due to interest rates and rates will continue to rise until inflation recedes to 2%. We have a ways to go. I'll start shopping when I see inflation hit 2% because that will be the trigger for rates to decline which would prompt prices to turn.

Two good indicators to watch for is the "Plunge Protection Team" and TARP intervention.
Historically indicative of a RE bottom.
No hurries...and yes we have a ways to go.

 

[WhatExit?]

US home prices drop at fastest pace since 2009

High inflation and rising borrowing costs have proven to be a lethal combination for the housing market, forcing potential buyers to pull back on spending.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[MSum661]

US home prices drop at fastest pace since 2009

High inflation and rising borrowing costs have proven to be a lethal combination for the housing market, forcing potential buyers to pull back on spending.

www.foxbusiness.com

Bottom is no where in sight yet. Solid Bull trap in play.
When the Crowd starts reading moves by the Federal .GOV like in 2007 then you'll know we're getting close...even at that point there is still a Lag.

"8/9/07: The PPT cannot afford to sit back and watch both the US housing market and the stock market sinking at the same time. That might spell the dreaded "R" word, - Recession." The "Plunge Protection Team" (PPT) Working Overtime to Save US Stock Market

Sounding familiar yet??? It should, the UK bailout last week was used with the help of USD's by yours truly to help mitigate contagion, for now.

 

[Havasu blue label]

I don’t think people will loose there jobs maybe there bills will catch up to them

 

[hallett21]

I don’t think people will loose there jobs maybe there bills will catch up to them

I can see people making the stupid decision to Refi to a higher rate to pay off debt.

Then getting into more debt down the road which would force a home sale. But that’s 24-36 months away. Unless people are just trying to lose everything

 

[monkeyswrench]

I can see people making the stupid decision to Refi to a higher rate to pay off debt.

Then getting into more debt down the road which would force a home sale. But that’s 24-36 months away. Unless people are just trying to lose everything

I think you are very logical. I'm hoping majority are like you. My current sphere of influence, the work trucks and such I work on, they aren't as bright.

The older guys get it. Been there done that, not going to do it again. Five younger "insta-contractors" I know...not quite. One of them is doing good, paid for a newer used truck, left stock, paid for his tractor...new. He's the smart one.

The other 4, not so much. All 4 bought homes in the last 3 years. 3 have refied to pull equity in the past two years...one of them twice! (I didn't know it was possible, but the market kept going up I guess). All 4 have new trucks, lifted, SxS's and new cars for their wives or girlfriends. Lately I'm seeing a shift, bare minimum to keep equipment running, and a lot of "I have to wait until next week". Their monthly is a killer. Weather hasn't been too cooperative either...

I don't know what it's like in Cali, or down in Phoenix, but I'm afraid we're about to have a problem.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I don’t think people will loose there jobs maybe there bills will catch up to them

Then people aren’t loosing their houses, maybe just their toys and some investment properties.

That puts us back to what many of us have been saying for 7 years… houses are about jobs.

A far cry from a 30-50% drop in 90 days this Spring.

 

[Boatymcboatface]

I think you are very logical. I'm hoping majority are like you. My current sphere of influence, the work trucks and such I work on, they aren't as bright.

The older guys get it. Been there done that, not going to do it again. Five younger "insta-contractors" I know...not quite. One of them is doing good, paid for a newer used truck, left stock, paid for his tractor...new. He's the smart one.

The other 4, not so much. All 4 bought homes in the last 3 years. 3 have refied to pull equity in the past two years...one of them twice! (I didn't know it was possible, but the market kept going up I guess). All 4 have new trucks, lifted, SxS's and new cars for their wives or girlfriends. Lately I'm seeing a shift, bare minimum to keep equipment running, and a lot of "I have to wait until next week". Their monthly is a killer. Weather hasn't been too cooperative either...

I don't know what it's like in Cali, or down in Phoenix, but I'm afraid we're about to have a problem.

The people that played this game are the same that did it last time so I don’t really care if it hurts. I know of a few guys that did this and a couple live in houses that they paid cash for with the refi from their original home that they lost!! So even thought they “lost” did they? Some people that held out long enough pulled cash and paid cash for the second home then got the original loan reduced down to the starting loan amount and now have 2! Houses one free and clear (paid for with the cash out refi) and the other is back to the original loan amount and a low interest rate!

It really is crazy what you can pull off when the government steps in and start forgiving dept!!

Just read a article the other day about a lady complaining about her 80k student dept but in the same artical talked about 140k in car loans for electric vehicles and a home loan but was making $350k a year!! And she couldn’t figure out how to make ends meat!!!

 

[NicPaus]

I think you are very logical. I'm hoping majority are like you. My current sphere of influence, the work trucks and such I work on, they aren't as bright.

The older guys get it. Been there done that, not going to do it again. Five younger "insta-contractors" I know...not quite. One of them is doing good, paid for a newer used truck, left stock, paid for his tractor...new. He's the smart one.

The other 4, not so much. All 4 bought homes in the last 3 years. 3 have refied to pull equity in the past two years...one of them twice! (I didn't know it was possible, but the market kept going up I guess). All 4 have new trucks, lifted, SxS's and new cars for their wives or girlfriends. Lately I'm seeing a shift, bare minimum to keep equipment running, and a lot of "I have to wait until next week". Their monthly is a killer. Weather hasn't been too cooperative either...

I don't know what it's like in Cali, or down in Phoenix, but I'm afraid we're about to have a problem.

It's slowing down. There are a lot of new Contractors that popped up last few years. New Diesel trucks, dump trailers, escalade for the wife, high rent, shop and more.

I was in similar position last crash. But what killed me was a investor not paying and 1 big customer. I eventually got paid but was to late.

Now everything I own is paid off except mortgage at 3% and half the cost of renting. Own every tool and equipment to get the jobs done. And I now have 17 Years of repeat customers that own a lot of properties.

 

[hallett21]

I think you are very logical. I'm hoping majority are like you. My current sphere of influence, the work trucks and such I work on, they aren't as bright.

The older guys get it. Been there done that, not going to do it again. Five younger "insta-contractors" I know...not quite. One of them is doing good, paid for a newer used truck, left stock, paid for his tractor...new. He's the smart one.

The other 4, not so much. All 4 bought homes in the last 3 years. 3 have refied to pull equity in the past two years...one of them twice! (I didn't know it was possible, but the market kept going up I guess). All 4 have new trucks, lifted, SxS's and new cars for their wives or girlfriends. Lately I'm seeing a shift, bare minimum to keep equipment running, and a lot of "I have to wait until next week". Their monthly is a killer. Weather hasn't been too cooperative either...

I don't know what it's like in Cali, or down in Phoenix, but I'm afraid we're about to have a problem.

I may have too much faith in people lol.

I just want my family to always have a solid safe roof over their head. I will leverage the construction company to the brink of disaster before I risk the house.

I can always BK the company and go work for someone.

 

[COCA COLA COWBOY]

I may have too much faith in people lol.

I just want my family to always have a solid safe roof over their head. I will leverage the construction company to the brink of disaster before I risk the house.

I can always BK the company and go work for someone.

Just be sure to read all the small print of any loans you ever take. I worked for a land developer that had a huge line of credit. When the market turned, they called the line and emptied his accounts. It was crazy!

 

[Havasu blue label]

Mr orange primary home should be safe it’s the havasu home the lot that they where going to build on but no longer qualify the toys that are sitting in the driveway yes the boat the speed deposit that’s been sitting for 2 years .

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Mr orange primary home should be safe it’s the havasu home the lot that they where going to build on but no longer qualify the toys that are sitting in the driveway yes the boat the speed deposit that’s been sitting for 2 years .

I'm sorry you have so many troubles. You should sell that stuff while you can.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Can you spot a some cash from your heloc from your investment properties money bags

 

[Englewood]

According to mr orange everybody has a 3 percent loans and no helocs

He hasn't once said anything about everyone having 3% loans. We are all agreeing that people with 3% loans are gonna stay put, therefore creating an inventory problem.

 

[monkeyswrench]

I may have too much faith in people lol.

I just want my family to always have a solid safe roof over their head. I will leverage the construction company to the brink of disaster before I risk the house.

I can always BK the company and go work for someone.

I have little faith in other's actions. Some days I'm jealous of the stuff they have...because I did too at one point. Other days reality hits me, if things slow, they risk a lot more to lose. I put all my eggs in one basket, but if I croak, the homes are paid for, and can be sold if needed. That roof for my family was the most important thing, and I almost screwed that up last time.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Can you spot a some cash from your heloc from your investment properties money bags

Dude I’ll give you my hat to hold on to.

 

[MSum661]

Hasn't even started yet! Next year will be rough. I'm forecasting prices to return to 2020 pricing.

2020 will be one of the stops of many along the downward trend.
This will also be the "oh shit" moment when the 1st, 2nd or 3rd time home buyer FOMO crowd realizes that taking out big loans "until you make money" is not a sound investment strategy. The rest who learned their lessons will survive.

 

[RiverDave]

Hasn't even started yet! Next year will be rough. I'm forecasting prices to return to 2020 pricing.

Why would that be rough? These prices got over inflated because of Covid and artificial demand? There was a period in havasu across two or three months that avg houses were rising 50+k a month.. .

If it returned to 2020 I wouldn’t call that a crash, I’d call that a return to normal. If it went back to 2011 -2013 prices I’d call that a horrendous crash. Everything in between 2016-2020 it wouldn’t be great, but maybe part of a natural
Cycle?

RD

 

[TCHB]

View attachment 1159976

Why would that be rough? These prices got over inflated because of Covid and artificial demand? There was a period in havasu across two or three months that avg houses were rising 50+k a month.. .

If it returned to 2020 I wouldn’t call that a crash, I’d call that a return to normal. If it went back to 2011 -2013 prices I’d call that a horrendous crash. Everything in between 2016-2020 it wouldn’t be great, but maybe part of a natural
Cycle?

RD

The problem would be the house can not be sold because new owners are under water. In Havasu I saw a big turn over of boaters that bought vacation homes and then stopped boating For many reasons. If this group wants out prices would really drop. Will new Snowbirds from Wisconsin buy at this prices?

 

[hallett21]

The problem would be the house can not be sold because new owners are under water. In Havasu I saw a big turn over of boaters that bought vacation homes and then stopped boating For many reasons. If this group wants out prices would really drop. Will new Snowbirds from Wisconsin buy at this prices?

I can see that scenario playing out. But their monthly payment could very well be the same as someone who buys for 10-20% less due to high rates.

I’d think homeowners would want to get creative (bring on partners etc) before dumping the house to avoid a $2500-3000 a month payment.

I’d rather bring on a partner and give up 50% equity and keep a stake in the home than give it up to avoid a monthly payment.

 

[Havasu blue label]

shopping For properties this weekend in havasu and lots just drop a letter off call me if interested

 

[RiverDave]

shopping For properties this weekend in havasu and lots just drop a letter off call me if interested

I still can’t figure out what this means