For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[RiverDave]

Bullshit, you are going to build a house in the Foothills that out does BSB and your wife will be a happy camper!

Lol dude BSB doesn’t keep up with the Jones.. The Jones try to keep up with BSB. Lol

But alas, if we are building it’s gonna have elevators and televators…. We want all the vators.. lol

 

[PaPaG]

You stated "since we already Doubled interest rates as was originally posted resulting in doubling the payments on a newly financed home of the same value"

600k @ 3% = $2,529
600k @ 6% = $3,597

600k @ 9% isn't even double the payment.

Doubling actual interest payment amount how is that for clarification. Come on I thought you were smarter than that. You sound like MKA LOF now lol.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

Not sure what to make of this chart. Lots going on here.

That ebidta (earnings before interest depreciation taxes and amortization) line is exactly what you would expect following a recession. The quick rise is historically similar to what we saw post 2008. The short duration of the recession and the rapid spike in Inflation are the "what's different."

Concerning is the rapid rise and fall of defaults. This gives you an interesting peek at the paycheck to paycheck population. I would bet in 6 months they draw another shaded grey box that starts around April of 2022.

Rating agencies are still modeling credit default risk (cdr) under 1%. That number started to rise in June just like it has for the start of the last two recessions.

Most of the rmbs deals issued this year have excess coupon spread less than 1. The ones that sold more than A tranches are gonna be in serious trouble if the default rate is over 4x worse than modeled. 2x worse than modeled isn't good either. Especially if the cdr is early in the deal interrupting the credit prepay rate (cpr) which is still being modeled at 4 years. Now throw into the mix that most of these deals have a step up on the bond rates at year 4 (which will increase the debt service on the deal when there isn't any excess coupon spread to begin with) and things get interesting real quick.

(bonds in a securitization are typically sold in tranches based on their agency rating. A bonds rating determines what type of investor they can market to. For example an "A" rated bond can be sold to a pension fund. These are generally considered to be safer investments as they are first in the waterfall to be paid off. "b" level bonds can be sold to qibs, hedge funds and investment banks. There is usually a mandate for an overall portfolio to contain a higher % of "A" rated bonds than "b" rated bonds. Some deals this year have only been able to sell the a rated bonds others have gotten into the b rated bonds dependant on fluctuating market liquidity. The bonds are debt sold to investors backed by the performance of the loans in the security.)

() For river Dave

 

[MSum661]

This is how on the fringe edge BlackRock really is, despite what the crowd believes, right at the moment during yesterdays UK pension fund debacle nearly getting hit with margin calls and going straight into default. Yes, "That "BlackRock".
Keep in mind BlackRock also manages about 25% of the world’s total money & are partners with Coinbase.


Anyone here mature enough to rememeber the word "Contagion" back during the Lehman days.......

BlackRock threatened to halt trading at height of UK market tumult​

Blackrock froze pension hedges at height of UK market tumult

Asset manager criticised over tactics during gilt sell-off

www.ft.com

"BlackRock has been accused of failing to defend pension fund purchasers by threatening to halt trading in sure funds at the height of this week’s UK bond market tumult.
In a memo despatched on Wednesday morning, BlackRock advised purchasers utilizing its liability-driven investing methods that it might freeze “funds more at risk of assets being exhausted” and transfer the belongings to money.

One skilled trustee stated the actions left pension schemes probably unable to take steps to defend their members.
“What we had seen, which was disconcerting for trustees, is that they can’t buy or sell,” stated David Fogarty, knowledgeable trustee with Dalriada, a trustee agency.
The restrictions affected BlackRock purchasers utilizing its liability-driven investing methods that lay at the center of the turmoil.
BlackRock, together with rivals together with Legal and General Investment Management, Insight Investment and Schroders, runs a variety of LDI funds for pension schemes that use derivatives to hedge towards antagonistic motion in rates of interest and inflation.
The sharp strikes in gilt yields sparked calls for from some asset managers for purchasers to stump up additional money to cowl shortfalls of their derivatives positions. Some pension funds had been pressured to promote gilts to increase money, exacerbating the market mayhem.
BlackRock, which sits between the pension schemes and banks on such derivatives trades, advised its purchasers that it might now not demand further collateral.
BlackRock is “not proceeding with any further recapitalization events until further notice”, stated the e-mail to LDI purchasers, which was seen by the Financial Times and was despatched at about 11am, earlier than the Bank of England introduced its emergency intervention to stabilise the gilt market.
Fogarty stated: “If you run out of collateral they were saying, ‘we will close the position’, without going back to ask for more money from the fund. It is protecting their positions against contagion but it is not protecting their pension funds.” He added that different LDI managers put in place comparable restrictions.
A pensions knowledgeable stated: “BlackRock would have been on the hook for a default in its LDI funds if it had not taken these steps and that is obviously a reputational hit that it wanted to avoid.”

BlackRock didn’t instantly reply to a request for remark."

 

[grumpy88]

This is how on the fringe edge BlackRock really is, despite what the crowd believes, right at the moment during yesterdays UK pension fund debacle nearly getting hit with margin calls and going straight into default. Yes, "That "BlackRock".
Keep in mind BlackRock also manages about 25% of the world’s total money & are partners with Coinbase.


Anyone here mature enough to rememeber the word "Contagion" back during the Lehman days.......

BlackRock threatened to halt trading at height of UK market tumult​

Blackrock froze pension hedges at height of UK market tumult

Asset manager criticised over tactics during gilt sell-off

www.ft.com

"BlackRock has been accused of failing to defend pension fund purchasers by threatening to halt trading in sure funds at the height of this week’s UK bond market tumult.
In a memo despatched on Wednesday morning, BlackRock advised purchasers utilizing its liability-driven investing methods that it might freeze “funds more at risk of assets being exhausted” and transfer the belongings to money.

One skilled trustee stated the actions left pension schemes probably unable to take steps to defend their members.
“What we had seen, which was disconcerting for trustees, is that they can’t buy or sell,” stated David Fogarty, knowledgeable trustee with Dalriada, a trustee agency.
The restrictions affected BlackRock purchasers utilizing its liability-driven investing methods that lay at the center of the turmoil.
BlackRock, together with rivals together with Legal and General Investment Management, Insight Investment and Schroders, runs a variety of LDI funds for pension schemes that use derivatives to hedge towards antagonistic motion in rates of interest and inflation.
The sharp strikes in gilt yields sparked calls for from some asset managers for purchasers to stump up additional money to cowl shortfalls of their derivatives positions. Some pension funds had been pressured to promote gilts to increase money, exacerbating the market mayhem.
BlackRock, which sits between the pension schemes and banks on such derivatives trades, advised its purchasers that it might now not demand further collateral.
BlackRock is “not proceeding with any further recapitalization events until further notice”, stated the e-mail to LDI purchasers, which was seen by the Financial Times and was despatched at about 11am, earlier than the Bank of England introduced its emergency intervention to stabilise the gilt market.
Fogarty stated: “If you run out of collateral they were saying, ‘we will close the position’, without going back to ask for more money from the fund. It is protecting their positions against contagion but it is not protecting their pension funds.” He added that different LDI managers put in place comparable restrictions.
A pensions knowledgeable stated: “BlackRock would have been on the hook for a default in its LDI funds if it had not taken these steps and that is obviously a reputational hit that it wanted to avoid.”

BlackRock didn’t instantly reply to a request for remark."

In English please ! Lol can you dumb it down for me .

 

[DrunkenSailor]

In English please ! Lol can you dumb it down for me .

Here's a good wsj article that explains it well. https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-did-bank-of-england-have-to-prop-up-bond-market-11664395480

It's a bit of a mess created by the new UK government. The bank of England is trying to fight inflation but the UK government is offering tax cuts increasing consumer spending ability. The bond market in England is reacting poorly and the pound was loosing value at a significant rate. The boe is throwing money at it which they will need to print to stop the bleeding. It has had what I believe will be a short term benefit to bond prices and the pounds value but it is in turn increasing inflation further.

The London stock exchange selloff has not slowed and the us stock market has followed suite with the Dow down another 2% today and the s&p down nearly 3%.

The British bond market has leveled off due to the influx of capital but us treasuries have gotten worse.

Immediate large government spending to stabilize markets is never a good sign for economic health and usually results in a slight bounce followed by a crash. We will see...

 

[caribbean20]

In English please ! Lol can you dumb it down for me .

My simplistic understanding - Blackrock and other slick investment banks sold leveraged derivatives to UK Pension funds allowing said pension funds to cover their shortfalls during times of low returns. All worked well during stable market conditions.

When new UK government proposed big tax cuts, UK interest rates spiked and the Pension funds got margin calls on their derivatives. They did not have enough time to sell other assets to cover the margin calls. Blackrock threatened to sell their clients’ positions (the Pension funds) which would have caused big losses for the Pension funds. To avoid this, the UK Government intervened in the market to stabilize UK interest rates and save the Pension funds.

Similar to what happened in the US with collateralized debt obligations back on ‘07. Dumb asses will just never learn.

You always stress test these positions to make sure you can cover the unthinkable. Or better yet, don’t do them. These investment banks earn huge fees on these synthetic products. They don’t give two shits about their clients well being.

 

[arch stanton]

Here's a good wsj article that explains it well. https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-did-bank-of-england-have-to-prop-up-bond-market-11664395480

It's a bit of a mess created by the new UK government. The bank of England is trying to fight inflation but the UK government is offering tax cuts increasing consumer spending ability. The bond market in England is reacting poorly and the pound was loosing value at a significant rate. The boe is throwing money at it which they will need to print to stop the bleeding. It has had what I believe will be a short term benefit to bond prices and the pounds value but it is in turn increasing inflation further.

The London stock exchange selloff has not slowed and the us stock market has followed suite with the Dow down another 2% today and the s&p down nearly 3%.

The British bond market has leveled off due to the influx of capital but us treasuries have gotten worse.

Immediate large government spending to stabilize markets is never a good sign for economic health and usually results in a slight bounce followed by a crash. We will see...

my favorite investing term the dead cat bounce that is what you are saying?

 

[DrunkenSailor]

my favorite investing term the dead cat bounce that is what you are saying?

Yup... Will be interesting to watch the ftse over the next couple of days.

My simplistic understanding - Blackrock and other slick investment banks sold leveraged derivatives to UK Pension funds allowing said pension funds to cover their shortfalls during times of low returns. All worked well during stable market conditions.

When new UK government proposed big tax cuts, UK interest rates spiked and the Pension funds got margin calls on their derivatives. They did not have enough time to sell other assets to cover the margin calls. Blackrock threatened to sell their clients’ positions (the Pension funds) which would have caused big losses for the Pension funds. To avoid this, the UK Government intervened in the market to stabilize UK interest rates and save the Pension funds.

Similar to what happened in the US with collateralized debt obligations back on ‘07. Dumb asses will just never learn.

You always stress test these positions to make sure you can cover the unthinkable. Or better yet, don’t do them. These investment banks earn huge fees on these synthetic products. They don’t give two shits about their clients well being.

Dead on.

 

[pronstar]

Similar to what happened in the US with collateralized debt obligations back on ‘07. Dumb asses will just never learn.

Most folks consider 07 “the subprime mortgage crises”

But I believe (pretty sure you do, too) that Collateral/REPO was the root cause.

 

[PaPaG]

Exactly. Can’t wait to hear what the self appointed gurus rebuttal is to this.

Self appointed gurus that read and post facts are saying the naysayers will continue to slowly back peddle or deny anything is happening in the housing market as it corrects lower and lower month by month....One of the Self Appointed Gurus has spoken.

 

[TCHB]

Havasu getting close to 500 homes for sale. This is the highest in quite some time. https://www.zillow.com/lake-havasu-city-az/houses/

 

[FishSniper]

Self appointed gurus that read and post facts are saying the naysayers will continue to slowly back peddle or deny anything is happening in the housing market as it corrects lower and lower month by month....One of the Self Appointed Gurus has spoken.

Please quote one post when I have stated the housing market was not going to drop. I’ll be waiting please quote it in a response to this message. You don’t post anything other than regurgitated info and half the time that isn’t even correct. Hell your last post about interest rates was completely clueless and then as you like to try and say others do u backpedal and try to act like that’s not what you posted. Comical.

 

[PaPaG]

Please quote one post when I have stated the housing market was not going to drop. I’ll be waiting please quote it in a response to this message. You don’t post anything other than regurgitated info and half the time that isn’t even correct. Hell your last post about interest rates was completely clueless and then as you like to try and say others do u backpedal and try to act like that’s not what you posted. Comical.

So you are saying Forbes, Fox Business etc is regurgitated info and half the time isn't accurate, (or do you get your financial data from MSNBC, lol)...you should learn how to read and do some research on your own and maybe follow the stock market data and news with all the huge CEOs and CFOs interviews all before spouting false comments. As far as in interest comment it was stated on Fox business during their housing reports and also on a lot of trusted housing data reports from the largest firms in the world, I think you need to learn to understand that 1+1=2, double or more that the interest rate payments. You can always put me on ignore since this was my thread and if you don't like it you can take the typical liberal way out and attack instead of having a conversation.

 

[PaPaG]

Havasu getting close to 500 homes for sale. This is the highest in quite some time. https://www.zillow.com/lake-havasu-city-az/houses/

Can't be true lol...just kidding. I think they may hit 1000 sometime soon (within 12/18/24 months when housing fully catches up to current interest hikes), I wonder what the highest number of listings Havi ever had.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Can't be true lol...just kidding. I think they may hit 1000 sometime soon (within 12/18/24 months when housing fully catches up to current interest hikes), I wonder what the highest number of listings Havi ever had.

I dont remember the number but it was way way more than that in 2012.

Maybe triple that.

A 3/2 with a 30’ garage was $100k.

 

[PaPaG]

I dont remember the number but it was way way more than that in 2012.

Maybe triple that.

A 3/2 with a 30’ garage was $100k.

How were the numbers in 08? did they exceed that due to the burst or stay level?

 

[2Driver]

I have no idea where all this is heading, but its moving there quickly.

 

[Havasu blue label]

its Coming havasu is at 35 percent

 

[Havasu blue label]

It’s going in the right direction

 

[HNL2LHC]

its Coming havasu is at 35 percent

What is coming and 35% of what???

 

[hallett21]

Yes

 

[Havasu blue label]

This is a housing market thread havasu homes and condos and dirt

 

[FishSniper]

So you are saying Forbes, Fox Business etc is regurgitated info and half the time isn't accurate, (or do you get your financial data from MSNBC, lol)...you should learn how to read and do some research on your own and maybe follow the stock market data and news with all the huge CEOs and CFOs interviews all before spouting false comments. As far as in interest comment it was stated on Fox business during their housing reports and also on a lot of trusted housing data reports from the largest firms in the world, I think you need to learn to understand that 1+1=2, double or more that the interest rate payments. You can always put me on ignore since this was my thread and if you don't like it you can take the typical liberal way out and attack instead of having a conversation.

No I’m saying you can’t even regurgitate the info correctly. I see that you responded but didn’t quote anything with regard to me claiming the housing market wasn’t going to drop. You’re the one that apparently can’t add when u claimed that because interest rates doubled the payment doubled and when you were proven to be wrong you try to change what your statement was. Typical liberal way lmao if you are inferring I’m a liberal you’re about as far off as your math on the interest rates.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

How were the numbers in 08? did they exceed that due to the burst or stay level?

I was not following then to be honest.

I am pretty sure they trended up from the late 2000s to the early 2010. I really started really paying attention in 2010-2011. When they did the first time home buyer tax credit in 2009 that raised prices for a time and changed the inventory complexion. Once that was up you see prices fall and inventory continue to climb.

I would have done things differently if I knew then what I know now.

 

[PaPaG]

No I’m saying you can’t even regurgitate the info correctly. I see that you responded but didn’t quote anything with regard to me claiming the housing market wasn’t going to drop. You’re the one that apparently can’t add when u claimed that because interest rates doubled the payment doubled and when you were proven to be wrong you try to change what your statement was. Typical liberal way lmao if you are inferring I’m a liberal you’re about as far off as your math on the interest rates.

Are you insane? As far as housing drop, you joined in on the doom and gloom attack when I posted factual info and you sounded like MSNBC reports that mimics NOTHING TO SEE HERE KEEP MOVING lol. 1+1=2 and I can guarantee my math is above par. Never have I been proven wrong when posting facts on these topics, if I quickly typed something and missed a word only a naysayer would try to build a whole attack on that...Typical liberal attack, ok how about Typical liberal style? does that work.. lol YES.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Liberal wow you must be a wealthy man

 

[PaPaG]

I was not following then to be honest.

I am pretty sure they trended up from the late 2000s to the early 2010. I really started really paying attention in 2010-2011. When they did the first time home buyer tax credit in 2009 that raised prices for a time and changed the inventory complexion. Once that was up you see prices fall and inventory continue to climb.

I would have done things differently if I knew then what I know now.

Thanks for the answer, I am not interested in ever buying in Havi since I built this house but I do love how they have all the car shows, events, and gatherings. (well I should never say never).

 

[HNL2LHC]

This is a housing market thread havasu homes and condos and dirt

No duh!!! But your reference to Havasu is at 35%. What does 35% represent? Sales volume? Reduction in pricing? Or…..

@hallett21 I know your answer is still “yes”.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Thanks for the answer, I am not interested in ever buying in Havi since I built this house but I do love how they have all the car shows, events, and gatherings. (well I should never say never).

Would be interesting to see what it did back then.

 

[FishSniper]

Are you insane? As far as housing drop, you joined in on the doom and gloom attack when I posted factual info and you sounded like MSNBC reports that mimics NOTHING TO SEE HERE KEEP MOVING lol. 1+1=2 and I can guarantee my math is above par. Never have I been proven wrong when posting facts on these topics, if I quickly typed something and missed a word only a naysayer would try to build a whole attack on that...Typical liberal attack, ok how about Typical liberal style? does that work.. lol YES.

So now I quoted MSNBC ? Comical. I joined the thread cause I was tired of reading you posting garbage thinking you were smarter than the world chest bumping thinking you sold at the top then rooting for a crash. Your “ factual info” has been shown to be wrong many times most recently the brilliant statement on interest rates.

 

[PaPaG]

Would be interesting to see what it did back then.

Agreed.

 

[PaPaG]

So now I quoted MSNBC ? Comical. I joined the thread cause I was tired of reading you posting garbage thinking you were smarter than the world chest bumping thinking you sold at the top then rooting for a crash. Your “ factual info” has been shown to be wrong many times most recently the brilliant statement on interest rates.

My posting garbage? lol you are an idiot. Obviously I am smarter than you that is for sure. So my understanding is that you are upset I stated I sold at the top after doing my due diligence and I knew there was going to be a housing correction and it was not a good time to buy but once it corrects it would be a great time to buy. lol you are truly a sad man.

 

[PaPaG]

5-4-3-2 lol

 

[FishSniper]

My posting garbage? lol you are an idiot. Obviously I am smarter than you that is for sure. So my understanding is that you are upset I stated I sold at the top after doing my due diligence and I knew there was going to be a housing correction and it was not a good time to buy but once it corrects it would be a great time to buy. lol you are truly a sad man.

Not upset at all I actually laugh at you and all the hypocritical useless garbage that you post. Congrats you are going on ignore a place that Grads never even made his way to and that’s saying something.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Price reduction on properties that I have been watching

 

[Bobby V]

No duh!!! But your reference to Havasu is at 35%. What does 35% represent? Sales volume? Reduction in pricing? Or…..

@hallett21 I know your answer is still “yes”.

Price reduction on properties that I have been watching

Here you go Tim. Lol

 

[PaPaG]

So now I quoted MSNBC ? Comical. I joined the thread cause I was tired of reading you posting garbage thinking you were smarter than the world chest bumping thinking you sold at the top then rooting for a crash. Your “ factual info” has been shown to be wrong many times most recently the brilliant statement on interest rates.

So lets see you back peddle out of this fact. I know I know Nothing to see here, all gloom and doom, false facts and garbage, interest payment is not double lol lol...If you cannot figure it out I suggest taking 3rd grade math once again. I will wait for you to answer

If you borrow $500,000.00 at 2.50% for 30.00 years, your monthly payment will be $1,975.60. Your payment on interest will be $211,217.62 over the term of the loan. Monthly payment on interest portion is $1041.00
If you borrow $500,000.00 at 6.00% for 30.00 years, your monthly payment will be $2,997.75. Your payment on interest will be $579,190.95 over the term of the loan.
Monthly payment on interest portion is $2500.00. I hope that cleared it up for the folks that wrongly said payments won't be double or more on interest.

 

[JFMFG]

So will i be able to pickup a house for a 100k in havasu in 12 months?

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

So will i be able to pickup a house for a 100k in havasu in 12 months?

No. The owners will pay you $100k to take it.

 

[PaPaG]

Not upset at all I actually laugh at you and all the hypocritical useless garbage that you post. Congrats you are going on ignore a place that Grads never even made his way to and that’s saying something.

Oh poor baby. Thanks for the Ignore, I like to hear educated folks opinions not fools.

 

[HNL2LHC]

Here you go Tim. Lol

Thanks Bobby!!

 

[Havasu blue label]

don’t panic lol

 

[PaPaG]

So will i be able to pickup a house for a 100k in havasu in 12 months?

No but you will be saving 100k or more in 12 months that is for sure...

 

[Cdog]

So will i be able to pickup a house for a 100k in havasu in 12 months?

Magic 8 ball says likely NO!

 

[Cdog]

No but you will be saving 100k or more in 12 months that is for sure...

100k based on a closed comparable?
or the “ if someone will buy it for this price I’ll sell it” price?

That’s the real question we won’t know the answer to until it happens.

It’s likely we will see rates in the 3-4 range 6-8 months before the next presidential election. I’ll go on record. I bet this will re inflate things.

It’s all political

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

100k based on a closed comparable?
or the “ if someone will buy it for this price I’ll sell it” price?

That’s the real question we won’t know the answer to until it happens.

It’s likely we will see rates in the 3-4 range 6-8 months before the next presidential election. I’ll go on record. I bet this will re inflate things.

It’s all political

 

[RiverDave]

I dont remember the number but it was way way more than that in 2012.

Maybe triple that.

A 3/2 with a 30’ garage was $100k.

Only because I was shopping new construction in late 2011..

A new 3/2 with an rv garage was 186k, that’s with the granite etc..

3/2 no rv garage (boat deep but not tall) with a pool was 200’ish..

Unfortunately if ya had to have the rv and the pool it bumped it to 300.. which was interesting because you could get a decent pool back the for 50’ish.


Mine was a 4 / 3&1/2 lake view / pool / big garage etc.. was listed for like 360 but we got it for 310.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Only because I was shopping new construction in late 2011..

A new 3/2 with an rv garage was 186k, that’s with the granite etc..

3/2 no rv garage (boat deep but not tall) with a pool was 200’ish..

Unfortunately if ya had to have the rv and the pool it bumped it to 300.. which was interesting because you could get a decent pool back the for 50’ish.


Mine was a 4 / 3&1/2 lake view / pool / big garage etc.. was listed for like 360 but we got it for 310.

And I think existing was even a little cheaper than new at that point. You’d remember better than me though.

 

[RiverDave]

Price reduction on properties that I have been watching

You have seen 35% price reductions? Wtf?