For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[2FORCEFULL]

money is made on RE on the purchase... when the re goes up.... the dollar deflates.... it's about a 100% fact that when you sell you don't have enough money to buy your same house back... unless you do for sell by owner, you loose 12% at the title company...I'm not talking flips, but if you bought right, the profit is the day you bought...

 

[bentprops]

Smart money!

More like dumb luck

 

[PaPaG]

better off going through kingman this time of year, in fact better off going that wayy all the thime...there's no flood zones... it's quicker, and you don't have sleepy truckers and old guys in rv's coming at you head on...there's more places to stop, and you never have to drive on cal hiways...and no inspection station.. I know it's hard to make a right at the 40, it just seems like you're going the wrong way...a couple miles farter.... but quicker and better roads...

From our house it is much much quicker to Vegas going the 40 route roughly 10 miles to the 95 then to vegas, about 110-115 miles total and 1.75 hours depending on what part of vegas we are heading too. Going the kigman route it takes us roughly 2.5+ hours and about 165/170 miles. I drive the route every week and have tried all the options, another way I like to avoid Cali and the possibility of flood, traffic and slow drivers is heading up to avi then through laughlin town center to the 163 and over to the 95 north, never any traffic, road conditions excellent and about 2 hours and 115/118 miles last I checked. You would be going to vegas from Havi, much easier to go the kingman route for you than going all the way to Needles then up.

 

[bentprops]

We all know there is a lot of bad stuff going on in the economy. Maybe someone can tell me something thats going good?

 

[PaPaG]

We all know there is a lot of bad stuff going on in the economy. Maybe someone can tell me something thats going good?

We got a lot of rain in AZ, Monsoon season is a good one this year, lightening shows have been great.

 

[hallett21]

money is made on RE on the purchase... when the re goes up.... the dollar deflates.... it's about a 100% fact that when you sell you don't have enough money to buy your same house back... unless you do for sell by owner, you loose 12% at the title company...I'm not talking flips, but if you bought right, the profit is the day you bought...

12%?

If you’re talking realtors and fees it’s closer to 6%. Unless I’m missing something.

 

[bentprops]

Inventory up, Negative
Intrest rates double, Negitive
Forbarance ending, Negative
Forclose moratoraim ended, Negitive
savings down 33%, Negative
Cradit card debit at all time high, Negative
10 years of RE demand moved forward. Negative
Work from Homes ending Negitve
World having RE down turn at same time, Negiotve

Do it hink it will be like 2008? No i think it will be worse.
You will wake up one morening and some large event will take place. NY is nuked, Wells fargo files for BK, USA goes bankrupt.

Here is what the nay says will be saying. Well i was right but who could have seen (fill in the blank) happen,

 

[HNL2LHC]

Inventory up, Negative
Intrest rates double, Negitive
Forbarance ending, Negative
Forclose moratoraim ended, Negitive
savings down 33%, Negative
Cradit card debit at all time high, Negative
10 years of RE demand moved forward. Negative
Work from Homes ending Negitve
World having RE down turn at same time, Negiotve

Do it hink it will be like 2008? No i think it will be worse.
You will wake up one morening and some large event will take place. NY is nuked, Wells fargo files for BK, USA goes bankrupt.

Here is what the nay says will be saying. Well i was right but who could have seen (fill in the blank) happen,

Jist got to ride out the storm. Good thing for our family is that our son has been out of school for about 5 years so there has been that pressure released for us. I hope that you have been squirreling away some $$$ for the down market. I hope that it does not come to that but all good things must come to an end. Good thing is that we are busier than ever and our backlogs are through next year and had a busy week with new homeowners starting their dream house builds. So with the transfer of wealth, people building their dream home to live out the rest of their life the dip might not be too big. Sorry if it looks less roses for you or others out there.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Inventory up, Negative
Intrest rates double, Negitive
Forbarance ending, Negative
Forclose moratoraim ended, Negitive
savings down 33%, Negative
Cradit card debit at all time high, Negative
10 years of RE demand moved forward. Negative
Work from Homes ending Negitve
World having RE down turn at same time, Negiotve

Do it hink it will be like 2008? No i think it will be worse.
You will wake up one morening and some large event will take place. NY is nuked, Wells fargo files for BK, USA goes bankrupt.

Here is what the nay says will be saying. Well i was right but who could have seen (fill in the blank) happen,

And the people living under a dark cloud will say “See! I’ve been saying this will happen for 50 years!” We are already into year 7 of these proclamations.

And all the money they have saved up waiting to buy RE in Havasu will be worth nothing anyway if that happens.

If what you say happens and the USA goes BK no one is buying anything. A lot of things will happen but the USA declaring bankruptcy isn’t one of them. We will blow up our debtors first.

 

[PaPaG]

Many states Federal Reserve Presidents comment that the Fed is going to keep increasing into 2023, estimate another .75 during the next meeting. Let's see what it does to the housing market as the mortgage rates slowly increase catching up to the feds increases. Housing has already shown a slow but steady decline in activity and increases in supply are gaining daily along with time on the market to sell, I know I know the "Know it Alls" will say wow your house was worth 900k and now you can sell for 810k but you only paid 300k for it so no big deal you still made a lot of money...I think it is a big deal to lose 10% on an investment ANY investment......My thoughts are any money you have not invested in the housing market should be invested in the stock market if you feel comfortable with your level of investment skills and knowhow of how to work the market...the best investors in the world jump in and out of different markets all the time, they don't sit on anything stagnant or barely moving.

 

[HNL2LHC]

by the way the wife had A call late last week. A person saying the sky is falling and they would be happy to purchase our lot in town. LOL. Told the wife that she shoulid tell them sure for twice the price we bought for. LOL

 

[COCA COLA COWBOY]

From what I am being told, we are trying to get into a war with China to get us out of the impending recession. This came from some upper military. War for the last 50 years has been a way to advance our economy more than anything. Not sure if these people were right, but they had a lot of data.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Many states Federal Reserve Presidents comment that the Fed is going to keep increasing into 2023, estimate another .75 during the next meeting. Let's see what it does to the housing market as the mortgage rates slowly increase catching up to the feds increases. Housing has already shown a slow but steady decline in activity and increases in supply are gaining daily along with time on the market to sell, I know I know the "Know it Alls" will say wow your house was worth 900k and now you can sell for 810k but you only paid 300k for it so no big deal you still made a lot of money...I think it is a big deal to lose 10% on an investment ANY investment......My thoughts are any money you have not invested in the housing market should be invested in the stock market if you feel comfortable with your level of investment skills and knowhow of how to work the market...

But we've already established that paper gains are not "real profits" You can't live on both sides of the fence. We all love to buy a stock and its bottom and sell at its peak but that rarely happens, and you can’t buy and sell at a moments notice.

It is ludicrous to think one could do the same with a piece of real estate. If you are buying within 10% of the low and selling within 10% of the high you are doing amazing in RE.

If you are trying to extract every last dollar.. well you become a troll under a bridge with his arms crossed waiting for a "crash" while everyone else doubles their money because you think you can triple it.

 

[PaPaG]

From what I am being told, we are trying to get into a war with China to get us out of the impending recession. This came from some upper military. War for the last 50 years has been a way to advance our economy more than anything. Not sure if these people were right, but they had a lot of data.

Scary thought but that is what has happened in our history. I hope not, if it happened the damage, number of deaths and destruction will be so much worse than ever before it will take decades to heal.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

We all know there is a lot of bad stuff going on in the economy. Maybe someone can tell me something thats going good?

The dollar is strong right now you can travel out of the country for cheaper if you are the adventurous type.

 

[hallett21]

From what I am being told, we are trying to get into a war with China to get us out of the impending recession. This came from some upper military. War for the last 50 years has been a way to advance our economy more than anything. Not sure if these people were right, but they had a lot of data.

What’s your source buying?

 

[PaPaG]

But we've already established that paper gains are not "real profits" You can't live on both sides of the fence. We all love to buy a stock and its bottom and sell at its peak but that rarely happens, and you can buy and sell at a moments notice.

It is ludicrous to think one could do the same with a piece of real estate. If you are buying within 10% of the low and selling within 10% of the high you are doing amazing in RE.

If you are trying to extract every last dollar.. well you become a troll under a bridge with his arms crossed waiting for a "crash" while everyone else doubles their money because you think you can triple it.

Never wait for total bottom or top, always get out as the market direction dictates a trend then you can always jump back in at any point you feel works for you. Not related to houses just the stock market. I don't personally know any investor that waits to extract every last dollar from any investment that they are working to make money on. I do however have seen many that refuse to see trends and continue naysaying til it is too late and they regret being so blind while still denying any losses. Make your money at the level you are comfortable with but never ignore the facts..oops FACTS! lol...

 

[2FORCEFULL]

12%?

If you’re talking realtors and fees it’s closer to 6%. Unless I’m missing something.

Lets say you sell for 1m.... just for easy math... you'll be lucky with fees to net 920k....now... a few months, or the next day you go out looking,... same house as yours, the cheepest you can find is 1.2 m....so you gotta add 100k to the net to break even.... thats 10%..loss. but the big problem is while you sit there doing nothing with the money... it's deflating like a hole in an inner tube... you can listen to arm chair money managers that have never bought , sold or developed raw land.... but... it's still the same.... money is made on the purchase.... using your primary home as a revolving chage account, or flipping your primary,,, just means you are always looking for a home and you have to pack and move your shit alot...

 

[Bpracing1127]

One thing I’ll mention from this thread.

Math is very abstract and left for interpretation.

I thought math was absolute, I guess I learned something

 

[badgas]

Inventory up, Negative
Intrest rates double, Negitive
Forbarance ending, Negative
Forclose moratoraim ended, Negitive
savings down 33%, Negative
Cradit card debit at all time high, Negative
10 years of RE demand moved forward. Negative
Work from Homes ending Negitve
World having RE down turn at same time, Negiotve

Do it hink it will be like 2008? No i think it will be worse.
You will wake up one morening and some large event will take place. NY is nuked, Wells fargo files for BK, USA goes bankrupt.

Here is what the nay says will be saying. Well i was right but who could have seen (fill in the blank) happen,

In this scenario there is NOTHING of value other than guns, food , batteries and bottled water.

Real estate and all other property will be siezed and nationalized and every other asset will be worthless.

That is a very sad and depressing thing to dwell on and if you REALLY believe that i'm curious what your plan of action is ?

Have you sold all your property and cashed in every dollar for the above listed items ? Have you built your off grid bug out cave to live out the rest of your life in this distopian future ?

 

[PaPaG]

In this scenario there is NOTHING of value other than guns, food , batteries and bottled water.

Real estate and all other property will be siezed and nationalized and every other asset will be worthless.

That is a very sad and depressing thing to dwell on and if you REALLY believe that i'm curious what your plan of action is ?

Have you sold all your property and cashed in every dollar for the above listed items ? Have you built your off grid bug out cave to live out the rest of your life in this distopian future ?

I hope your scenario never develops that is for sure. Who thinks that way? if someone posted all that gloom other than the facts that are actually going on in the markets both stocks and housing I would like to see it?

 

[monkeyswrench]

In this scenario there is NOTHING of value other than guns, food , batteries and bottled water.

Real estate and all other property will be siezed and nationalized and every other asset will be worthless.

That is a very sad and depressing thing to dwell on and if you REALLY believe that i'm curious what your plan of action is ?

Have you sold all your property and cashed in every dollar for the above listed items ? Have you built your off grid bug out cave to live out the rest of your life in this distopian future ?

You say that like it's a bad thing...some people see the life off-grid, like @wash11 , as a wonderful way of life. Others may not, but I'd rather have his life than one of offices and Starbucks. If anything, the past two years should have shown us a dystopian world isn't as far fetched as we once thought. Then again, there are some that feel this is just the normal course of human evolution in regards to societal norms.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Enjoy life and sit tight

 

[Sportin' Wood]

If bad shit happens (like War), inventory will tighten so much there won't be anything to buy regardless of rates or RE values. There are so many contributing factors to this that we can't point to a single leading indicator to predict what the RE market will do. Loss and gains only seem to happen in short bursts, so anyone long on RE will be fine.

As Angie mentioned, we had a casual conversation with an RE agent in Northern Idaho last week. She specializes in lakefront and pointed out several examples of homes she sold in the previous couple of years, including one she took the time to show us last year. All of them went to the STR market. None had been purchased as a primary residence or a vacation home without STR.

We got on the topic of current inventory and pricing, and she said most sellers are holding on to high listing prices, but nothing is moving. I posed a question about a theory I have, and I could see the look on her face raised the possibility I might be correct. She said she would look into it and had not considered my question before that moment.

I'll ask the great and powerful RDP the same series of questions:
If we agree home prices in some markets have doubled since 2019, why would a seller not price $100K below market value and take the winnings and run? In many cases, sellers would still net a return well in the six-figure range for an investment with only a couple of years of risk. For most, this could be the best investment of their lives. She responded that sellers still think they can command high prices.

My follow-up questions: Did your STR sellers that have only owned the homes since 2019 refinance the homes and pull out equity? [Change in the look on her face]
How much equity do the sellers have today compared to what we perceive?
How many STRs do your sellers own?
How are the STR's funding improvements, furnishings, and marketing?
What happens when people stop booking STR vacations, can the owners cashflow them?

I think our 2008 moment is the STR market. I've only a hunch and little supporting evidence. You decide if it's worth a look. I believe that the agent thought it was worth a look. If I am right, she said, I may yet get my lakefront property at a reasonable price. Just gotta wait and see.

Maybe municipalities won't enact unfavorable regulations against STRs
Maybe people will still love VRBO and AirBNB
Maybe the neighbors won't get upset when people are partying next door every night of the week.
Maybe cleaning costs won't continue to rise
Maybe maintenance costs won't continue to climb
Maybe STR owners will still be able to manage them when they can't WFH
Maybe STR owners will still be able to operate without permits and pay taxes in some cases
Maybe it will continue to be too good to be true?

While not enough to take down the entire RE market, it could make a dent. Interested in others' thoughts.

 

[RVR SWPR]

0

Inventory up, Negative
Intrest rates double, Negitive
Forbarance ending, Negative
Forclose moratoraim ended, Negitive
savings down 33%, Negative
Cradit card debit at all time high, Negative
10 years of RE demand moved forward. Negative
Work from Homes ending Negitve
World having RE down turn at same time, Negiotve

Do it hink it will be like 2008? No i think it will be worse.
You will wake up one morening and some large event will take place. NY is nuked, Wells fargo files for BK, USA goes bankrupt.

Here is what the nay says will be saying. Well i was right but who could have seen (fill in the blank) happen,

WTF, you might consider renting a gun buying a bullet. J/K. This is no time to be listening to anyone or any media. Individual effort what needed right now. Turn off that TV.

 

[Englewood]

From what I am being told, we are trying to get into a war with China to get us out of the impending recession. This came from some upper military. War for the last 50 years has been a way to advance our economy more than anything. Not sure if these people were right, but they had a lot of data.

I HIGHLY DOUBT that anyone with the knowledge of such a plan is telling their friend so he can post on a boating forum. China needs us and we need them, it's the sad truth. I highly doubt any conflict with China Ould help our economy in any way.

 

[angiebaby]

We all know there is a lot of bad stuff going on in the economy. Maybe someone can tell me something thats going good?

A bunch of wealthy elites get to hang out at a luxurious resort and figure out ways to screw over the middle class some more this week. I sure hope they enjoy their week in the Rockies. Maybe they will get some guided flyfishing trips in.

 

[Englewood]

If bad shit happens (like War), inventory will tighten so much there won't be anything to buy regardless of rates or RE values. There are so many contributing factors to this that we can't point to a single leading indicator to predict what the RE market will do. Loss and gains only seem to happen in short bursts, so anyone long on RE will be fine.

As Angie mentioned, we had a casual conversation with an RE agent in Northern Idaho last week. She specializes in lakefront and pointed out several examples of homes she sold in the previous couple of years, including one she took the time to show us last year. All of them went to the STR market. None had been purchased as a primary residence or a vacation home without STR.

We got on the topic of current inventory and pricing, and she said most sellers are holding on to high listing prices, but nothing is moving. I posed a question about a theory I have, and I could see the look on her face raised the possibility I might be correct. She said she would look into it and had not considered my question before that moment.

I'll ask the great and powerful RDP the same series of questions:
If we agree home prices in some markets have doubled since 2019, why would a seller not price $100K below market value and take the winnings and run? In many cases, sellers would still net a return well in the six-figure range for an investment with only a couple of years of risk. For most, this could be the best investment of their lives. She responded that sellers still think they can command high prices.

My follow-up questions: Did your STR sellers that have only owned the homes since 2019 refinance the homes and pull out equity? [Change in the look on her face]
How much equity do the sellers have today compared to what we perceive?
How many STRs do your sellers own?
How are the STR's funding improvements, furnishings, and marketing?
What happens when people stop booking STR vacations, can the owners cashflow them?

I think our 2008 moment is the STR market. I've only a hunch and little supporting evidence. You decide if it's worth a look. I believe that the agent thought it was worth a look. If I am right, she said, I may yet get my lakefront property at a reasonable price. Just gotta wait and see.

Maybe municipalities won't enact unfavorable regulations against STRs
Maybe people will still love VRBO and AirBNB
Maybe the neighbors won't get upset when people are partying next door every night of the week.
Maybe cleaning costs won't continue to rise
Maybe maintenance costs won't continue to climb
Maybe STR owners will still be able to manage them when they can't WFH
Maybe STR owners will still be able to operate without permits and pay taxes in some cases
Maybe it will continue to be too good to be true?

While not enough to take down the entire RE market, it could make a dent. Interested in others' thoughts.

Interesting take.

As of May, 44.9% of homes have at least 50% equity. "Half of U.S. Mortgaged Homes Now Considered Equity-Rich; Seriously Underwater Portion of Mortgages Dips Below 3 Percent; Sixteen Times as Many Mortgages are Equity Rich versus Seriously Underwater"

I am simply relaying the thoughts I've been seeing. Interpret as you see fit.

 

[brgrcru]

You say that like it's a bad thing...some people see the life off-grid, like @wash11 , as a wonderful way of life. Others may not, but I'd rather have his life than one of offices and Starbucks. If anything, the past two years should have shown us a dystopian world isn't as far fetched as we once thought. Then again, there are some that feel this is just the normal course of human evolution in regards to societal norms.

 

[monkeyswrench]

I don't know how war with China would effect the economy. I know history shows that massive military engagements help manufacturing though. In the 1930's, Henry Ford loaned millions of dollars to the German government, to help them rebuild from WWI. Was he a believer in Nazi ideology? I don't believe so, but he knew the US government would need to buy equipment, and car sales were down. I don't know who owes who billions, or who has what to gain, but I'm sure greed would be to blame more than politics.

Now, darker path, the planet lost about 3% of it's population during WWII. That was with primitive weapons...

 

[Gonefishin5555]

If bad shit happens (like War), inventory will tighten so much there won't be anything to buy regardless of rates or RE values. There are so many contributing factors to this that we can't point to a single leading indicator to predict what the RE market will do. Loss and gains only seem to happen in short bursts, so anyone long on RE will be fine.

As Angie mentioned, we had a casual conversation with an RE agent in Northern Idaho last week. She specializes in lakefront and pointed out several examples of homes she sold in the previous couple of years, including one she took the time to show us last year. All of them went to the STR market. None had been purchased as a primary residence or a vacation home without STR.

We got on the topic of current inventory and pricing, and she said most sellers are holding on to high listing prices, but nothing is moving. I posed a question about a theory I have, and I could see the look on her face raised the possibility I might be correct. She said she would look into it and had not considered my question before that moment.

I'll ask the great and powerful RDP the same series of questions:
If we agree home prices in some markets have doubled since 2019, why would a seller not price $100K below market value and take the winnings and run? In many cases, sellers would still net a return well in the six-figure range for an investment with only a couple of years of risk. For most, this could be the best investment of their lives. She responded that sellers still think they can command high prices.

My follow-up questions: Did your STR sellers that have only owned the homes since 2019 refinance the homes and pull out equity? [Change in the look on her face]
How much equity do the sellers have today compared to what we perceive?
How many STRs do your sellers own?
How are the STR's funding improvements, furnishings, and marketing?
What happens when people stop booking STR vacations, can the owners cashflow them?

I think our 2008 moment is the STR market. I've only a hunch and little supporting evidence. You decide if it's worth a look. I believe that the agent thought it was worth a look. If I am right, she said, I may yet get my lakefront property at a reasonable price. Just gotta wait and see.

Maybe municipalities won't enact unfavorable regulations against STRs
Maybe people will still love VRBO and AirBNB
Maybe the neighbors won't get upset when people are partying next door every night of the week.
Maybe cleaning costs won't continue to rise
Maybe maintenance costs won't continue to climb
Maybe STR owners will still be able to manage them when they can't WFH
Maybe STR owners will still be able to operate without permits and pay taxes in some cases
Maybe it will continue to be too good to be true?

While not enough to take down the entire RE market, it could make a dent. Interested in others' thoughts.

I think you are still missing a couple pieces of the puzzle. Who exactly are the people buying these properties and how exactly did they acquire them. When I ask this I want to know where the money for the down payment came from and what kind of loan did they get. There is an AirBNB near my house in BHC and the superhost lady lists 18 properties that are her properties. They are all high-end properties with pools and riverfront etc and they are all recent purchases(less than 2 years). Not many reservations on any of them for the fall/winter. As they said in Game of Thrones "winter is coming". But again I don't have enough information to really judge whats going on or predict how it will shake out.

 

[Havasu blue label]

It’s called fake money not income just equity when shit hits you gonna give up the money maker no havasu Vegas bh it’s a slow return

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

If bad shit happens (like War), inventory will tighten so much there won't be anything to buy regardless of rates or RE values. There are so many contributing factors to this that we can't point to a single leading indicator to predict what the RE market will do. Loss and gains only seem to happen in short bursts, so anyone long on RE will be fine.

As Angie mentioned, we had a casual conversation with an RE agent in Northern Idaho last week. She specializes in lakefront and pointed out several examples of homes she sold in the previous couple of years, including one she took the time to show us last year. All of them went to the STR market. None had been purchased as a primary residence or a vacation home without STR.

We got on the topic of current inventory and pricing, and she said most sellers are holding on to high listing prices, but nothing is moving. I posed a question about a theory I have, and I could see the look on her face raised the possibility I might be correct. She said she would look into it and had not considered my question before that moment.

I'll ask the great and powerful RDP the same series of questions:
If we agree home prices in some markets have doubled since 2019, why would a seller not price $100K below market value and take the winnings and run? In many cases, sellers would still net a return well in the six-figure range for an investment with only a couple of years of risk. For most, this could be the best investment of their lives. She responded that sellers still think they can command high prices.

My follow-up questions: Did your STR sellers that have only owned the homes since 2019 refinance the homes and pull out equity? [Change in the look on her face]
How much equity do the sellers have today compared to what we perceive?
How many STRs do your sellers own?
How are the STR's funding improvements, furnishings, and marketing?
What happens when people stop booking STR vacations, can the owners cashflow them?

I think our 2008 moment is the STR market. I've only a hunch and little supporting evidence. You decide if it's worth a look. I believe that the agent thought it was worth a look. If I am right, she said, I may yet get my lakefront property at a reasonable price. Just gotta wait and see.

Maybe municipalities won't enact unfavorable regulations against STRs
Maybe people will still love VRBO and AirBNB
Maybe the neighbors won't get upset when people are partying next door every night of the week.
Maybe cleaning costs won't continue to rise
Maybe maintenance costs won't continue to climb
Maybe STR owners will still be able to manage them when they can't WFH
Maybe STR owners will still be able to operate without permits and pay taxes in some cases
Maybe it will continue to be too good to be true?

While not enough to take down the entire RE market, it could make a dent. Interested in others' thoughts.

Your questions is at the crux of the point many of us have been making, and why some think that Havasu RE will fall off a cliff because they believe the entire RE market is based on it. I believe it will make a dent, but not take down the market.

There are absolutely some STRs that are exposed. Is it the majority of them nation wide?? I don't think so. There are probably just as many that are not exposed, and/or can convert to LTR to weather the storm and cover costs.

Some of these people were not idiots and PAID for the house in full in a handful of years of STR profits (I will grant you this is not the norm).

My guess as to the reason they will not take their winnings now is because of 2 options... 1 - They are going to try or can afford to weather the storm, knowing that in a handful of years the property will be worth significantly more yet again. 2 - They have the mindset that they will hold out for every dollar.

Some of these people will be right and some will be wrong.

Now if STRs are affected to that extent, it will likely put a damper on all the STR regulations and costs you mentioned above. You know as well as I do people have short attention spans and if the nuisance aspects of STRs go away because the economy is impacted and STRs are reduced, municipalities will be on to the next thing that people are whining about, like super soakers in the Channel.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Interesting take.

As of May, 44.9% of homes have at least 50% equity. "Half of U.S. Mortgaged Homes Now Considered Equity-Rich; Seriously Underwater Portion of Mortgages Dips Below 3 Percent; Sixteen Times as Many Mortgages are Equity Rich versus Seriously Underwater"

I am simply relaying the thoughts I've been seeing. Interpret as you see fit.

You happen to have any idea what that stat was in 2006? You already know where I am going with this.

 

[badgas]

You say that like it's a bad thing...some people see the life off-grid, like @wash11 , as a wonderful way of life. Others may not, but I'd rather have his life than one of offices and Starbucks. If anything, the past two years should have shown us a dystopian world isn't as far fetched as we once thought. Then again, there are some that feel this is just the normal course of human evolution in regards to societal norms.

Not a bad thing at all !

I was just asking the other guy if he has cashed out of everything and bugged out.

 

[shintoooo]

 

[shintoooo]

Ford cutting 3,000 white-collar jobs in bid to lower costs

About 3,000 white-collar workers at Ford Motor Co. will lose their jobs as the company cuts costs to help make the long transition from internal combustion vehicles to those powered by batteries. Ford’s 56,000 union factory workers are not affected. Companies like Ford are orchestrating the...

www.yahoo.com

 

[Sportin' Wood]

I think you are still missing a couple pieces of the puzzle. Who exactly are the people buying these properties and how exactly did they acquire them. When I ask this I want to know where the money for the down payment came from and what kind of loan did they get. There is an AirBNB near my house in BHC and the superhost lady lists 18 properties that are her properties. They are all high-end properties with pools and riverfront etc and they are all recent purchases(less than 2 years). Not many reservations on any of them for the fall/winter. As they said in Game of Thrones "winter is coming". But again I don't have enough information to really judge whats going on or predict how it will shake out.

It would be interesting to get a mortgage broker's take on this. When we lived in Reno, I heard a story of a person taking equity to fund the next of each STR opportunity and using the cash flow to fund the whole mess and pay herself. I'm not sure how she pulled off the loans, sounds like some voodoo shit to me, and if true makes me suspect the whole thing will crash again.

I just finished a call with a co-worker who transferred out of Reno and has his home there listed for the last 90 days. Starting listing price was $1.2M. Has reduced the price by $85K so far. He has had two offers in 90 days, both after the $85K reduction. The first was $200K below asking; the second was $150K below asking. He has the third offering coming over this evening; he is not optimistic. He said he would cut the price by another $65k if this offer were not reasonable.

He said something that struck a note. "I'm getting tired of carrying this mortgage and it is starting to make me bleed, but I'm holding out as long as possible for the biggest gains." "I think my time is running out." "I don't want this stress anymore."

He admitted that he could drop the price any time to liquidate the property and still make an amazing return on his investment. But he believes the time will expire soon. He expects to aggressively start price cuts but said the people lowballing him would never fly. Even if he has to cut the price that much, he won't give them the satisfaction of winning. He will see a positive return if he ultimately takes a $200K haircut.

I'm looking forward to seeing if this example scales.

 

[PaPaG]

Ford cutting 3,000 white-collar jobs in bid to lower costs

About 3,000 white-collar workers at Ford Motor Co. will lose their jobs as the company cuts costs to help make the long transition from internal combustion vehicles to those powered by batteries. Ford’s 56,000 union factory workers are not affected. Companies like Ford are orchestrating the...

www.yahoo.com

Not only Ford but Google, Twitter, Walmart, Target, Groupon, Apple, Amazon and many more. Most started with small amounts to not panic the markets but hinted and warned that more to come. Recent article within the last week with CEOs of public companies stated that 50% of the CEOs interviewed said they are considering laying off from small to sizeable amount of employees, and a large majority said they are stalling any new hires and expansions, once that starts it will snowball. It takes time for all this crap to catch up to the Feds raising the rates. Don't worry though, the deniers will tell you all is OK and to ignore anyone stating facts or market trends.

 

[Done-it-again]

Ford cutting 3,000 white-collar jobs in bid to lower costs

About 3,000 white-collar workers at Ford Motor Co. will lose their jobs as the company cuts costs to help make the long transition from internal combustion vehicles to those powered by batteries. Ford’s 56,000 union factory workers are not affected. Companies like Ford are orchestrating the...

www.yahoo.com

Not only Ford but Google, Twitter, Walmart, Target, Groupon, Apple, Amazon and many more. Most started with small amounts to not panic the markets but hinted and warned that more to come. Recent article within the last week with CEOs of public companies stated that 50% of the CEOs interviewed said they are considering laying off from small to sizeable amount of employees, and a large majority said they are stalling any new hires and expansions, once that starts it will snowball. It takes time for all this crap to catch up to the Feds raising the rates. Don't worry though, the deniers will tell you all is OK and to ignore anyone stating facts or market trends.

But in Jun 22' they added 6200 union workers.

Ford to add over 6,000 U.S. jobs as it boosts electric vehicle production and prepares for a new Mustang

Ford will add 6,200 union jobs and promote another 3,000 temps to full-time status as it prepares to build more EVs and all-new versions of Mustang and Ranger.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Gonefishin5555]

It would be interesting to get a mortgage broker's take on this. When we lived in Reno, I heard a story of a person taking equity to fund the next of each STR opportunity and using the cash flow to fund the whole mess and pay herself. I'm not sure how she pulled off the loans, sounds like some voodoo shit to me, and if true makes me suspect the whole thing will crash again.

I just finished a call with a co-worker who transferred out of Reno and has his home there listed for the last 90 days. Starting listing price was $1.2M. Has reduced the price by $85K so far. He has had two offers in 90 days, both after the $85K reduction. The first was $200K below asking; the second was $150K below asking. He has the third offering coming over this evening; he is not optimistic. He said he would cut the price by another $65k if this offer were not reasonable.

He said something that struck a note. "I'm getting tired of carrying this mortgage and it is starting to make me bleed, but I'm holding out as long as possible for the biggest gains." "I think my time is running out." "I don't want this stress anymore."

He admitted that he could drop the price any time to liquidate the property and still make an amazing return on his investment. But he believes the time will expire soon. He expects to aggressively start price cuts but said the people lowballing him would never fly. Even if he has to cut the price that much, he won't give them the satisfaction of winning. He will see a positive return if he ultimately takes a $200K haircut.

I'm looking forward to seeing if this example scales.

Story from 2007/08 my friend bought one of the early houses for Laughlin Ranch he relisted it immediately as the market had turned but he got in so early that he had a bunch of profit. He listed it in the low 400s which was equal to the selling price of the new homes and he cut the asking price 10K every month. He was finally advised to just accept the next lowball offer he got and to not even counter it. He did that and got $350K and the buyer bought it with 100% financing. Then last summer while i was shopping I went and looked at a listing in Laughlin Ranch and it was his old house and it was for sale for 400K I didn't buy it but we got a kick out seeing it and we checked all the zillow transactions on it over the years and it had changed hands for like 180K a few years later and at some point one of the owners spent a shit ton of money putting in a custom back yard pool entertainment area. So based off the improvements and 350K sale price that thing would still be underwater 14 years later and now prices are gonna go down a little so it might be 20 years before it would break even. I will bet you your co-worker will have wished he took the $150K under ask lowball before he is done.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

Not only Ford but Google, Twitter, Walmart, Target, Groupon, Apple, Amazon and many more. Most started with small amounts to not panic the markets but hinted and warned that more to come. Recent article within the last week with CEOs of public companies stated that 50% of the CEOs interviewed said they are considering laying off from small to sizeable amount of employees, and a large majority said they are stalling any new hires and expansions, once that starts it will snowball. It takes time for all this crap to catch up to the Feds raising the rates. Don't worry though, the deniers will tell you all is OK and to ignore anyone stating facts or market trends.

Isn't this job cut thing how this thread got started? 3,000 is nothing and I'm going to tell you point blank most of these job cuts are just smoke and mirrors and many of them don't actually materialize. So if you take lets say June 30, 2022 job totals for Ford and we get to June 30, 2023 and we compare total employment numbers for the company you will not see any significant reduction. And yes I'm saying a couple thousand is not significant.

 

[badgas]

Not only Ford but Google, Twitter, Walmart, Target, Groupon, Apple, Amazon and many more. Most started with small amounts to not panic the markets but hinted and warned that more to come. Recent article within the last week with CEOs of public companies stated that 50% of the CEOs interviewed said they are considering laying off from small to sizeable amount of employees, and a large majority said they are stalling any new hires and expansions, once that starts it will snowball. It takes time for all this crap to catch up to the Feds raising the rates. Don't worry though, the deniers will tell you all is OK and to ignore anyone stating facts or market trends.

Here is what I deny. The real estate market does not mirror 2008 like many have predicted. The loan structure and inventory numbers are totally different.

What I don't deny is that 70% of Americans live out of control with WAY too much debt and that is never a healthy plan. I don't deny that we have inflated the hell out of our currency starting with Trumps " Cares act " and continuing with sleepy drooling Joe and all this money printing and killing domestic energy production etc.

Oh yeah and we are in a recession. But we have had many other recessions since the depression that didn't collapse the housing market like ALL of them up to 2008.


I'm just curious and have a question for the resident economists. Does anyone think that with all this inflation mixed with sub 3% rates that the real estate prices have just hit a new normal just like milk and eggs and everything else that went up ?

 

[2FORCEFULL]

Here is what I deny. The real estate market does not mirror 2008 like many have predicted. The loan structure and inventory numbers are totally different.

What I don't deny is that 70% of Americans live out of control with WAY too much debt and that is never a healthy plan. I don't deny that we have inflated the hell out of our currency starting with Trumps " Cares act " and continuing with sleepy drooling Joe and all this money printing and killing domestic energy production etc.

Oh yeah and we are in a recession. But we have had many other recessions since the depression that didn't collapse the housing market like ALL of them up to 2008.


I'm just curious and have a question for the resident economists. Does anyone think that with all this inflation mixed with sub 3% rates that the real estate prices have just hit a new normal just like milk and eggs and everything else that went up ?

thedifferance is in 2008 they made home owners out of credit criminals and renters

 

[2FORCEFULL]

I've never in my life till now seen a group of so many people that worry what their home is worth.... get up, get a cup of coffee and check the comps...wtf... who care what it worth, you have a roof over your head and you are able to make the payments... just keep enjoying the life style from all the tax free money you are getting...

 

[HNL2LHC]

Looks like @LargeOrangeFont LOL

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Ford cutting 3,000 white-collar jobs in bid to lower costs

About 3,000 white-collar workers at Ford Motor Co. will lose their jobs as the company cuts costs to help make the long transition from internal combustion vehicles to those powered by batteries. Ford’s 56,000 union factory workers are not affected. Companies like Ford are orchestrating the...

www.yahoo.com

These are the same cuts we talked about a month ago it sounds like.

Ford will reportedly slash a quarter of its workforce to fuel EV expansion

Ford Blue workers are on the chopping block.

www.theverge.com

Looks like they cut their job cuts by a 63% cut from 8000 to 3000.

@Gonefishin5555 called it.

 

[Done-it-again]

Looks like @LargeOrangeFont LOL

Really? I was thinking @Hammer lol.

 

[HNL2LHC]

Really? I was thinking @Hammer lol.

@LargeHammer. LOL

 

[Havasu blue label]

Ford cut jobs last week in Palo Alto