For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[Englewood]

Im not sure what they do here. No way they lower rates. But are we going to hold and look at lowering in Q3/4? Or do they say that we’ll look as lowering 25.

Everyone should get familiar with the term "Stagflation".

 

[regor]

View attachment 1367586

 

[angiebaby]

Stop. Everything's fine. Greatest economy ever. People are still buying goods, houses, and going on vacation. Nothing to worry about.

 

[RiverDave]

Stop. Everything's fine. Greatest economy ever. People are still buying goods, houses, and going on vacation. Nothing to worry about.

Last two quarters of last year were horrible.. but first quarter this year. I can tell you in havasu / Mohave valley / bullhead / Parker shit is on fire again. I’d have to get the exact numbers from Stacy but I think we have 27-30 mill in escrow right now?

Stacy put an addition 7-9 in escrow this week?

Boats are selling well right now from my friends that own larger boat dealerships.

That said everyone is still nervous for the music to stop, but it hasn’t stopped yet. Point in fact whoever is controlling the stereo turned up the volume.

Desert storm was more packed this year than I have ever seen it as well. I’d bet we have another summer before we see any movement the wrong way.


RD

 

[530RL]

Stop. Everything's fine. Greatest economy ever. People are still buying goods, houses, and going on vacation. Nothing to worry about.

Every business we are invested in cannot meet demand.

We are short workers and the supply chain remains short of product or has super long lead times. We just cannot meet demand.

Life is cyclical and it will cycle back, but post Covid we just can’t keep up.

 

[Andy B.]

Every business we are invested in cannot meet demand.

We are short workers and the supply chain remains short of product or has super long lead times. We just cannot meet demand.

Life is cyclical and it will cycle back, but post Covid we just can’t keep up.

That's because they shut everything down which was stupid and no science behind it. Suppliers have been playing catch up pretty simple and cost us shit loads of money for the taxpayers....
I'm in the shipping business soooo you can't hide from facts unless of course you're a dem,liberal or rhino!!!!

 

[thetub]

That's because they shut everything down which was stupid and no science behind it. Suppliers have been playing catch up pretty simple and cost us shit loads of money for the taxpayers....
I'm in the shipping business soooo you can't hide from facts unless of course you're a dem,liberal or rhino!!!!

ya im not sure thats a good gauge of our economy as there are actual component shortages and mineral shortages ?

im not sure whats causing all these hold ups between regulations on shipping / manufacturing and shortages of actual raw materials?

something whacky or bullshit shortages so they can ram you extra for everything ?

 

[Andy B.]

ya im not sure thats a good gauge of our economy as there are actual component shortages and mineral shortages ?

im not sure whats causing all these hold ups between regulations on shipping / manufacturing and shortages of actual raw materials?

something whacky or bullshit shortages so they can ram you extra for everything ?

That may be..

 

[zhandfull]

Screen shot this graph of mortgage rates the other day.

Forty years of declining mortgage rates. Has provided untold amounts of personal financial lifelines for bad decisions.

Thinking that moving forward. Especially using leveraged debt. Might be more tricky than in the past.

 

[JDKRXW]

View attachment 1367585

View attachment 1367586

I saw your chart(s) earlier today then happened onto this article that explains them.

The US economy is already in a recession, and it's following the same path as China by becoming reliant on debt, veteran forecaster says

Rising layoffs and sluggish job growth are major signs the economy is already in a hard landing, one top forecaster says.

www.businessinsider.com

Storm clouds are approaching.

 

[LuauLounge]

Screen shot this graph of mortgage rates the other day.
View attachment 1367662
Forty years of declining mortgage rates. Has provided untold amounts of personal financial lifelines for bad decisions.

Thinking that moving forward. Especially using leveraged debt. Might be more tricky than in the past.

I sold in fall of 1981, the only Real Estate movement was on assumable loans.
Leased for a few years and new first was in the 9’s. Worked out fine overall. One period of time, after that, banks were calling offering to lower your interest rate at no cost whatsoever. As I recall, you could take a lower payment or shorter payoff. At first I thought it was a scam. Did some research and it wasn’t. Guess they didn’t want to see the loan portfolio roll out the door.

 

[CarolynandBob]

I am still holding on price, which I know is a little high. Still have people going to look at it.

I was thinking about offering to buy down the points on their mortgage. Maybe buy them down for a few years or more.(Then they can refi when rates come down) Anyone know the coast of doing that? Say it is a 500k loan or what ever conforming rates are. If rates are a little above 7% what about buying it down to say 4.75%. I have never looked into doing it before so have no idea.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

Who will isse a mortgage at anywhere near 50% of gross income?

Max dti on nonqm is 55%. Hard money will go higher.

 

[shintoooo]

We had a house come up for sale in our neighborhood, two streets down, on the "no view" side with no pool. Nice newer kitchen and bathrooms. All around, very nice house. Listed for $1.5 mil and it lasted 4 days and it's in escrow. I'm thinking it will probably sell $50-$100K over asking. We'll find out in a few weeks.

 

[Raffit78]

We had a house come up for sale in our neighborhood, two streets down, on the "no view" side with no pool. Nice newer kitchen and bathrooms. All around, very nice house. Listed for $1.5 mil and it lasted 4 days and it's in escrow. I'm thinking it will probably sell $50-$100K over asking. We'll find out in a few weeks.

Most everything in our community is the same way. $2.99m property went up and was sold for $3.050m within hours and multiple offers.

 

[RiverDave]

Max dti on nonqm is 55%. Hard money will go higher.

You guys gotta start speaking English

 

[hallett21]

You guys gotta start speaking English

You’re in realestate! Lol.

DTI= debt to income.

NONQM = non qualified mortgage.

 

[BHC Vic]

This is the house directly behind me. Crazy…

OneHome™

Make your dream home happen with OneHome™. Browse properties, find rates on mortgages and insurance, and collaborate with your real estate agent in one place.

portal.onehome.com

I circled mine and the one for sale. Pretty sure my street had bigger lots but the inside of the house for sale is much nicer that mine.

 

[regor]

Starbucks On Brink Of Worst Crash Since Dot Com After "Stunning" Earnings Miss | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Starbucks shares plummeted by 16% during the early cash session, approaching the -16.2% level last seen during the Covid crash. If intraday losses surpass 16.2% and remain above this level at closing, it would mark the company's worst single-day loss since the Dot Com crash in early 2000.

On Tuesday evening, CEO Laxman Narasimhan started the earnings call with investors by clarifying his unhappiness with last quarter's results.

"Let me be clear from the beginning. Our performance this quarter was disappointing and did not meet our expectations," Narasimhan said.

He said major headwinds originate from a "cautious consumer," adding, "A deteriorating economic outlook has weighed on customer traffic and impact felt broadly across the industry."

 

[attitude]

This is the house directly behind me. Crazy…

OneHome™

Make your dream home happen with OneHome™. Browse properties, find rates on mortgages and insurance, and collaborate with your real estate agent in one place.

portal.onehome.com

I saw that on Instagram but the price wasn’t listed. WTF, that’s Norco hills money lol

 

[EmpirE231]

Starbucks On Brink Of Worst Crash Since Dot Com After "Stunning" Earnings Miss | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Starbucks shares plummeted by 16% during the early cash session, approaching the -16.2% level last seen during the Covid crash. If intraday losses surpass 16.2% and remain above this level at closing, it would mark the company's worst single-day loss since the Dot Com crash in early 2000.

On Tuesday evening, CEO Laxman Narasimhan started the earnings call with investors by clarifying his unhappiness with last quarter's results.

"Let me be clear from the beginning. Our performance this quarter was disappointing and did not meet our expectations," Narasimhan said.

He said major headwinds originate from a "cautious consumer," adding, "A deteriorating economic outlook has weighed on customer traffic and impact felt broadly across the industry."

maybe they can boost sales next month w/ more rainbow cups and rainbow drinks

 

[RiverDave]

You’re in realestate! Lol.

DTI= debt to income.

NONQM = non qualified mortgage.

Wife is in real estate lol. I’m in boating

 

[EmpirE231]

This is the house directly behind me. Crazy…

OneHome™

Make your dream home happen with OneHome™. Browse properties, find rates on mortgages and insurance, and collaborate with your real estate agent in one place.

portal.onehome.com

I circled mine and the one for sale. Pretty sure my street had bigger lots but the inside of the house for sale is much nicer that mine

small world! I know that guy lol

 

[RVRKID]

Starbucks On Brink Of Worst Crash Since Dot Com After "Stunning" Earnings Miss | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Starbucks shares plummeted by 16% during the early cash session, approaching the -16.2% level last seen during the Covid crash. If intraday losses surpass 16.2% and remain above this level at closing, it would mark the company's worst single-day loss since the Dot Com crash in early 2000.

On Tuesday evening, CEO Laxman Narasimhan started the earnings call with investors by clarifying his unhappiness with last quarter's results.

"Let me be clear from the beginning. Our performance this quarter was disappointing and did not meet our expectations," Narasimhan said.

He said major headwinds originate from a "cautious consumer," adding, "A deteriorating economic outlook has weighed on customer traffic and impact felt broadly across the industry."

I went by the new Dutch Bros in Upland at around 12:30 and damn all 3 lanes had lines of cars, it was crazy.

 

[BHC Vic]

small world! I know that guy lol

The agent or homeowners? Loni and Jim Morse were the owners. Jim passed away Loni remarried she’s now loni waddle and her and Steve built a new place

 

[EmpirE231]

The agent or homeowners? Loni and Jim Morse were the owners. Jim passed away Loni remarried she’s now loni waddle and her and Steve built a new place

wild story... I know Steve.

 

[ChumpChange]

maybe they can boost sales next month w/ more rainbow cups and rainbow drinks

Pumpkin spice lattes are going to start in July this year.

 

[nameisbond]

Bank Of Montreal did a customer survey that came out this week that 76% responded they are waiting for a rate cut before buying a home. Capital gains tax rises in June and real estate agents see a rise in listing on second homes. I'm waiting for a rate cut and price drop to pre-covid levels before buying. This is what $2 million CAD buys in my current neighborhood: https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/26550647/1922-167a-street-surrey

$2 million CAD is roughly $1, 460, 000 USD

 

[Deckin Around]

I think Starbucks is on the decline anyway more competition now.

My sister is selling her townhouse in Irvine right now. Bought late 2019 for $820k, just listed for 1,498,000 and lasted 4 days on the market and under contract for 1,550,000. I keep passing on houses to flip and have regretted every one in the last 12 months where I thought the margins were too slim.

 

[gqchris]

I just got told I have to furlough one day a week 40 of my people to make it thru this fiscal year July 1st. We are not in a retail industry, but shit is changing, and I have never had to do that before.

Myself and fellow directors fought our asses off with finance to allow us this option and not layoffs.

But hey, Money is flowing still right?

 

[attitude]

I just got told I have to furlough one day a week 40 of my people to make it thru this fiscal year July 1st. We are not in a retail industry, but shit is changing, and I have never had to do that before.

Myself and fellow directors fought our asses off with finance to allow us this option and not layoffs.

But hey, Money is flowing still right?

I am in telecom and things are getting ugly at my company. Word is already out that we are getting divided up and sold due to our stock being in the tank and the investors wanting their money. There is a 90% chance I will be looking for a new job by the end of the year…

 

[BabyRay]

I am still holding on price, which I know is a little high. Still have people going to look at it.

I was thinking about offering to buy down the points on their mortgage. Maybe buy them down for a few years or more.(Then they can refi when rates come down) Anyone know the coast of doing that? Say it is a 500k loan or what ever conforming rates are. If rates are a little above 7% what about buying it down to say 4.75%. I have never looked into doing it before so have no idea.

About $800 monthly. Here’s a calculator link.

Amortization Calculator

This amortization calculator returns monthly payment amounts as well as displays a schedule, graph, and pie chart breakdown of an amortized loan.

www.calculator.net

 

[Flatsix66]

There is a growing disparity between the low end consumer and the wealthy. Mcdonalds, KFC, Starbucks all reporting poor 1Q numbers stating the low-mid consumer is pulling back on sales. AMD and other chip stocks that cater to consumer and gaming all pulling back, probably another signal. I would assume this group is getting hit hard by increased energy and insurance prices and persistent inflation while at the same time no more Covid money and repaying student loans. The upper-mid class is doing great for now, "knowledge worker" job average pay has increased 50% in recent years, inflation hasn't caught up to this group yet. The wealthy keep getting richer.

 

[CarolynandBob]

About $800 monthly. Here’s a calculator link.

Amortization Calculator

This amortization calculator returns monthly payment amounts as well as displays a schedule, graph, and pie chart breakdown of an amortized loan.

www.calculator.net

Thank you , but I don't think I explained it correctly. I found what I was looking for. It is called a 3,2,1, buydown. Rate down 3% 1st yr, 2% 2nd yr, 1% 3rd yr or a 2,1 buydown. 500K loan with the 3,2,1 buydown would be about 23k and a 2,1 would be about 11.5k

https://www.envoymortgage.com/mortg...st=7.0&tax=2500&insurance=1500&contribution=2

 

[angiebaby]

Thank you , but I don't think I explained it correctly. I found what I was looking for. It is called a 3,2,1, buydown. Rate down 3% 1st yr, 2% 2nd yr, 1% 3rd yr or a 2,1 buydown. 500K loan with the 3,2,1 buydown would be about 23k and a 2,1 would be about 11.5k

https://www.envoymortgage.com/mortg...st=7.0&tax=2500&insurance=1500&contribution=2

We paid around 8K for a 1% buydown for the life of the loan. From a seller's perspective, we figured if we kept the loan for 20 months, we would break even. I'm estimating here, as I'm going by memory from a year ago. It might have been only 3/4%

 

[brgrcru]

I’m so cal
definitely not as busy , if we’re looking at year to year .
In Counstruction trucking . We are down 15-20%.
There is stuff being built . But not much ground breaking. On the lower end scale.
Apartments and condos going up = no new roads , water, electrical , sewer, utilities going in

 

[bentprops]

As long as the gov keeps pumping $$$$$$ into the system prices will stay up.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

There is a growing disparity between the low end consumer and the wealthy. Mcdonalds, KFC, Starbucks all reporting poor 1Q numbers stating the low-mid consumer is pulling back on sales. AMD and other chip stocks that cater to consumer and gaming all pulling back, probably another signal. I would assume this group is getting hit hard by increased energy and insurance prices and persistent inflation while at the same time no more Covid money and repaying student loans. The upper-mid class is doing great for now, "knowledge worker" job average pay has increased 50% in recent years, inflation hasn't caught up to this group yet. The wealthy keep getting richer.

Yes.

 

[zhandfull]

There is a growing disparity between the low end consumer and the wealthy. Mcdonalds, KFC, Starbucks all reporting poor 1Q numbers stating the low-mid consumer is pulling back on sales. AMD and other chip stocks that cater to consumer and gaming all pulling back, probably another signal. I would assume this group is getting hit hard by increased energy and insurance prices and persistent inflation while at the same time no more Covid money and repaying student loans. The upper-mid class is doing great for now, "knowledge worker" job average pay has increased 50% in recent years, inflation hasn't caught up to this group yet. The wealthy keep getting richer.

Just paid my homeowners insurance. Up 42% from last years renewal.

Thinking my auto insurance might have just increased by the same percentage. Going to have to research that.

Energy price for gas and electric are way up.

The only thing saving my ass is being a long time home owner.

Really feel fior those that are stretched thin because they have huge mortgage and/or car payments.

Shit! Guess I’m in the low end consumer category.

 

[JDKRXW]

I'm waiting for a rate cut and price drop to pre-covid levels before buying.

Buy now. Rate cuts ain't going to happen in Canada. Inflation still isn't under control and the gov't is going to try to solve the housing crisis ... especially in your neck of the woods(and Ontario) with rentals. Get ready for corporate owned 'row houses'.
JMO.

 

[nameisbond]

Buy now. Rate cuts ain't going to happen in Canada. Inflation still isn't under control and the gov't is going to try to solve the housing crisis ... especially in your neck of the woods(and Ontario) with rentals. Get ready for corporate owned 'row houses'.
JMO.

They are going to over supply the market. The housing crisis is in the low end. Average house in Vancouver is over a million. Can't find an affordable rental anywhere. Rooms in houses are going for $1,500 per month. If Trudeau stopped immigration for a year. Crisis would be over very fast. It is mostly temp foreign workers and international students that can't find housing. But it is true the government wants us in their row houses!

 

[Orange Juice]

“Some 54 percent of boomers own their homes and no longer need to pay a mortgage, according to Redfin.”

 

[nameisbond]

The crisis here is in affordable housing as I've said. Most bedroom suites rent for $2,500 per month here. In my community FB groups at least a few posts per day looking for suites well under that. Like $1,500 to $1,800 per month. In rentals going to the $3,500 to $5k per month range. I had a ton of options and even more because I want to be rural again. No close neighbors. Few acres for the dog and barn/shop for me. Did sign a lease and have keys. But they are redoing the carpets and I can only move in basics. But it only took a week to find the place.

 

[zhandfull]

This place! The more I look at it the more I like it. Says mountain and lake views. Cul-de-sac and boat deep 3 car garage. And a pool. Think someone scored on this one.

1411 Glengarry Pl, Lake Havasu City, AZ 86404 | Zillow

1411 Glengarry Pl, Lake Havasu City AZ, is a Single Family home that contains 1435 sq ft and was built in 2001.It contains 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms.This home last sold for $550,000 in May 2024. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $558,100, which has increased by $2,810 in the last 30...

www.zillow.com

Listed and went pending in less than a week in June 2021. Sold 8.4% over listing price for $570,000

Just sold for $535,000 after being on the market for six months.

Is now a good time to buy or wait?

 

[Havasu blue label]

This place! The more I look at it the more I like it. Says mountain and lake views. Cul-de-sac and boat deep 3 car garage. And a pool. Think someone scored on this one.

1411 Glengarry Pl, Lake Havasu City, AZ 86404 | Zillow

1411 Glengarry Pl, Lake Havasu City AZ, is a Single Family home that contains 1435 sq ft and was built in 2001.It contains 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms.This home last sold for $550,000 in May 2024. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $558,100, which has increased by $2,810 in the last 30...

www.zillow.com

Listed and went pending in less than a week in June 2021. Sold 8.4% over listing price for $570,000

Just sold for $535,000 after being on the market for six months.

Is now a good time to buy or wait?

Put in the offers

 

[zhandfull]

Starting to see a trend form. This is the third home in Havasu that I have seen sell for less than two years ago.

1904 E Savannah Bnd, Lake Havasu City, AZ 86404 | Zillow

1904 E Savannah Bnd, Lake Havasu City AZ, is a Single Family home that contains 2417 sq ft and was built in 2017.It contains 4 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms.This home last sold for $700,000 in May 2024. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $709,300, which has increased by $2,755 in the last 30...

www.zillow.com

 

[shintoooo]

Florida is getting hit hard with price decreases right now and inventory is increasing significantly. Cost of living is up and Florida doesn't offer the wages like CA does in order to live comfortably.

 

[Done-it-again]

Florida is getting hit hard with price decreases right now and inventory is increasing significantly. Cost of living is up and Florida doesn't offer the wages like CA does in order to live comfortably.

Think it depends on location. What is happening is the cost of insurance Is going nuts, more than any other state.

Most people who don’t have fed backed mortgage skip on all the flood and hurricane insurance. Sometimes you can re model cheaper than paying for 10yrs on those premiums.

 

[lakemadness]

Think it depends on location. What is happening is the cost of insurance Is going nuts, more than any other state.

Most people who don’t have fed backed mortgage skip on all the flood and hurricane insurance. Sometimes you can re model cheaper than paying for 10yrs on those premiums.

Yep, my FIL lives in Naples. No mortgage and has not carried homeowners insurance. He says there are more and more properties coming to market. insurance costs are a big factor.

 

[regor]