For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[LargeOrangeFont]

If rates go down and that causes prices to go up again drastically, I would think that if you've been on the fence about selling your house, then this would be a good time to sell. Again that's only if rates go down and housing prices explode because I honestly can't see this economy going the way it has after the presidential race is over and someone has been voted in. Credit card debts are astronomical now and will only get worse this year. Something has got to give so I think this will be the last hoorah!! I will definitely take into consideration selling my current house because I want to move to Westlake Village area so maybe sell and rent for a year. We shall see.

The gambler!!

That probably a good stance at this point. It sounds like they want to hold rates after they drop them, and it does not sound like we are going below 5% again for the foreseeable future, but who knows.

 

[Cole Trickle]

$10k off the $15K increased MSRPs over the last couple years

also only on the turbotech 2.7 HO

 

[ChumpChange]

I want to move to Westlake Village area so maybe sell and rent for a year. We shall see.

had something to say about this comment but then realized it was Silverlake that I was thinking about.

 

[shintoooo]

https://twitter.com/TicTocTick/status/1744873143104135366

 

[hallett21]

https://twitter.com/TicTocTick/status/1744873143104135366

Yee fucking haw

 

[angiebaby]

With jobs not really being impacted, rates primed to drop. and car supply still seemingly low, it does not seem anyone is in desperation mode at this point. People are going to keep asking all the money.

I don't know. I've seen several articles like this one that shows inventories are rising pretty quickly, despite the strike even. Nearly 60% over the same time last year. Maybe you were talking about used? It would be interesting to see what the trends were like before the pandemic to see what is "normal" for new car inventory. Maybe someone on here has some insight to that data.


https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/new-vehicle-inventory-november-2023/

 

[Orange Juice]

yep! still better than MSRP though.

I see a ton of Chevy trucks in the overflow lots here @ the riverside auto center

2025, new Suburban/Tahoe models arrive soon.

 

[hallett21]

Real Estate Humor on Instagram: "The universe really looked at us and said “Merry Christmas, you earned it” @actuallyagents @actuallyagents @actuallyagents #realestate #realtorsofig #realestateagent #realtorjokes #foryourpage #finmemes #realesta

19K likes, 116 comments - actuallyagents on December 22, 2023: "The universe really looked at us and said “Merry Christmas, you earned it” @actuallyagents ..."

www.instagram.com

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I don't know. I've seen several articles like this one that shows inventories are rising pretty quickly, despite the strike even. Nearly 60% over the same time last year. Maybe you were talking about used? It would be interesting to see what the trends were like before the pandemic to see what is "normal" for new car inventory. Maybe someone on here has some insight to that data.


https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/new-vehicle-inventory-november-2023/

Agree there is more inventory than last year for sure. I don’t think there as many buyers either.

It’s definitely better to buy now than a year ago.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Agree there is more inventory than last year for sure. I don’t think there as many buyers either.

It’s definitely better to buy now than a year ago.

Start buying money bags

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Start buying money bags

I have all the bags I need.

 

[Havasu blue label]

I have all the bags I need.

Happy new year

 

[Orange Juice]

If rates go down and that causes prices to go up again drastically, I would think that if you've been on the fence about selling your house, then this would be a good time to sell. Again that's only if rates go down and housing prices explode because I honestly can't see this economy going the way it has after the presidential race is over and someone has been voted in. Credit card debts are astronomical now and will only get worse this year. Something has got to give so I think this will be the last hoorah!! I will definitely take into consideration selling my current house because I want to move to Westlake Village area so maybe sell and rent for a year. We shall see.

My parents sold a 3 car garage home in Claremont, Ca in 1974 (Move up). It has never been resold since..

I see more 2000 sqft homes on 3000sqft lots in the future, and if that's the case, Im not selling. If you think the markup on new cars is crazy, wait until you see the markup on homes with a 10k+ sqft lot.

 

[Englewood]

If rates go down and that causes prices to go up again drastically, I would think that if you've been on the fence about selling your house, then this would be a good time to sell. Again that's only if rates go down and housing prices explode because I honestly can't see this economy going the way it has after the presidential race is over and someone has been voted in. Credit card debts are astronomical now and will only get worse this year. Something has got to give so I think this will be the last hoorah!! I will definitely take into consideration selling my current house because I want to move to Westlake Village area so maybe sell and rent for a year. We shall see.

I completely agree. If things pick up this year, I think it will be short-lived.

CC and Auto defaults are way up, which is a huge indicator.

 

[HTMike]

All the shopping plazas by me were absolutely packed the other night. Way more packed than I thought they should be. Not sure whats going on but it does feel eerie.

 

[hallett21]

All the shopping plazas by me were absolutely packed the other night. Way more packed than I thought they should be. Not sure whats going on but it does feel eerie.

We went and got cocktails New Year’s Eve around noon at the Topanga Mall. A lot of people there for a “lunch” crowd.

Now it’s the valley, so it seems like everyone is trying “look rich”. But everyone was doing their best lol.

 

[hallett21]

@angiebaby I think this was your point earlier.

DFW Realtor - Mike McDonald on Instagram: "Is Buying a house with 6.6% interest rate then refinancing at 5% worth it? #dallasrealtor #dallasrealestate #dfwrealestate #texas #dfwrealtor #dallas #realestate #texas #dfw #dallas #fortworth #sanantonio #h

6,386 likes, 366 comments - mikemcdonald_dfwrealtor on January 3, 2024: "Is Buying a house with 6.6% interest rate then refinancing at 5% worth it? #dallasrealtor #dallasrealestate #dfwrealestate #texas #dfwrealtor #dallas #realestate #texas #dfw #dallas #fortworth #sanantonio #houston #austin...

www.instagram.com

 

[zhandfull]

@angiebaby I think this was your point earlier.

DFW Realtor - Mike McDonald on Instagram: "Is Buying a house with 6.6% interest rate then refinancing at 5% worth it? #dallasrealtor #dallasrealestate #dfwrealestate #texas #dfwrealtor #dallas #realestate #texas #dfw #dallas #fortworth #sanantonio #h

6,386 likes, 366 comments - mikemcdonald_dfwrealtor on January 3, 2024: "Is Buying a house with 6.6% interest rate then refinancing at 5% worth it? #dallasrealtor #dallasrealestate #dfwrealestate #texas #dfwrealtor #dallas #realestate #texas #dfw #dallas #fortworth #sanantonio #houston #austin...

www.instagram.com

So it’s not a good ideal to refinance multiple times as rates go down? You and your mortgage broker would be great friends.

 

[BHC Vic]

@angiebaby I think this was your point earlier.

DFW Realtor - Mike McDonald on Instagram: "Is Buying a house with 6.6% interest rate then refinancing at 5% worth it? #dallasrealtor #dallasrealestate #dfwrealestate #texas #dfwrealtor #dallas #realestate #texas #dfw #dallas #fortworth #sanantonio #h

6,386 likes, 366 comments - mikemcdonald_dfwrealtor on January 3, 2024: "Is Buying a house with 6.6% interest rate then refinancing at 5% worth it? #dallasrealtor #dallasrealestate #dfwrealestate #texas #dfwrealtor #dallas #realestate #texas #dfw #dallas #fortworth #sanantonio #houston #austin...

www.instagram.com

Most people restart the clock at 30 years they don’t pick up at the 27.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Most people restart the clock at 30 years they don’t pick up at the 27.

This.

I had a 3.5% rate on my last house, I was 11 years in on that when covid hit. A refinance at 2.7% with a 20 year term was a higher payment. Made no sense to refi that far in, even with that big of a rate drop. This was a straight refi, no cash out.

 

[angiebaby]

@angiebaby I think this was your point earlier.

DFW Realtor - Mike McDonald on Instagram: "Is Buying a house with 6.6% interest rate then refinancing at 5% worth it? #dallasrealtor #dallasrealestate #dfwrealestate #texas #dfwrealtor #dallas #realestate #texas #dfw #dallas #fortworth #sanantonio #h

6,386 likes, 366 comments - mikemcdonald_dfwrealtor on January 3, 2024: "Is Buying a house with 6.6% interest rate then refinancing at 5% worth it? #dallasrealtor #dallasrealestate #dfwrealestate #texas #dfwrealtor #dallas #realestate #texas #dfw #dallas #fortworth #sanantonio #houston #austin...

www.instagram.com

Thank you for sharing that. Yes. I certainly believe it's a good idea to refi if the rates drop a point or more. We've done it. It's the every half-point or twice-a-year that I personally feel isn't that bright of a move. I think people doing this in order not to have a payment for two months and save $250-$300/mo are finding themselves in a tight spot and trying to get some breathing room. If the number of people doing this increases substantially, then we have issues in the housing market's stability. However, I think this guy is a bit high on his $12K refi costs. That's not accurate, is it?

 

[mesquito_creek]

Thank you for sharing that. Yes. I certainly believe it's a good idea to refi if the rates drop a point or more. We've done it. It's the every half-point or twice-a-year that I personally feel isn't that bright of a move. I think people doing this in order not to have a payment for two months and save $250-$300/mo are finding themselves in a tight spot and trying to get some breathing room. If the number of people doing this increases substantially, then we have issues in the housing market's stability. However, I think this guy is a bit high on his $12K refi costs. That's not accurate, is it?

2-3% of principal is the avg cost to refi if you google it. So 12k isn’t far off on some loan sizes. It was always about 18 months to break even when I was part of the refi crowd.

 

[hallett21]

I believe also quicken/rocket and the other big mortgage company out of Detroit (forget the name) were doing a lot of lender credits 2019-2022. So the closing costs weren’t as high.

 

[Cole Trickle]

I completely agree. If things pick up this year, I think it will be short-lived.

CC and Auto defaults are way up, which is a huge indicator.

I think a drop in rates is a sure fire way to destroy the economy. There will be a short term fear bubble and people will jump back into the market to buy.

I think they should leave things right where they are for a couple years so we can keep clawing away at the damage covid did. The economy is on thin ice and lowering the fed is going to be the tipping point.

 

[Cole Trickle]

Thank you for sharing that. Yes. I certainly believe it's a good idea to refi if the rates drop a point or more. We've done it. It's the every half-point or twice-a-year that I personally feel isn't that bright of a move. I think people doing this in order not to have a payment for two months and save $250-$300/mo are finding themselves in a tight spot and trying to get some breathing room. If the number of people doing this increases substantially, then we have issues in the housing market's stability. However, I think this guy is a bit high on his $12K refi costs. That's not accurate, is it?

I have countless clients that have been in their house for 20+ years refinance to 30 years. Most boomers are just trying to stay liquid and live a lifestyle so what do you really accomplish by paying your house off aside from giving junior a couple million dollars when you croak....Got to keep up that Orange county tesla buying neighbors

With that said I think its a terrible idea and I throw extra $$$ at my mortgage to drop it to a 20...lol

 

[hallett21]

I have countless clients that have been in their house for 20+ years refinance to 30 years. Most boomers are just trying to stay liquid and live a lifestyle so what do you really accomplish by paying your house off aside from giving junior a couple million dollars when you croak....Got to keep up that Orange county tesla buying neighbors

With that said I think its a terrible idea and I throw extra $$$ at my mortgage to drop it to a 20...lol

I wonder what rate they had 20 years ago. If the payment doesn’t change I could 1,000s of people doing this lol.

Like you said the only one it hurt$ are the kids.

 

[HTMike]

My take is 2024 doesn't end up being that bad. They lower rates to the brink of collapse, install a republican in office with a financial hand grenade in his jacket pocket set to go off in 2025.

None of this will stop people from living their lives and over spending into oblivion though. Humans in 2024 aren't cut out for roughing it. They will sell their great great great grandkids out if they don't have to give an inch in their lifestyle.

 

[BHC Vic]

I have countless clients that have been in their house for 20+ years refinance to 30 years. Most boomers are just trying to stay liquid and live a lifestyle so what do you really accomplish by paying your house off aside from giving junior a couple million dollars when you croak....Got to keep up that Orange county tesla buying neighbors

With that said I think its a terrible idea and I throw extra $$$ at my mortgage to drop it to a 20...lol

Everyone tells me I’m dumb for going on the 20 year and I’m house Poor. I think I have 16 years left. I would just waste the extra money anyways for me right now the kids school is a big one. Eli will finish 6th grade then go to public middle school. When the other two go public I’ll have that extra money monthly. Should have around 7 years left on the house. That 1800 a month could go to toys or just pay the house off even quicker. I dunno seems like a long time from now but that’s the plan.

 

[hallett21]

Everyone tells me I’m dumb for going on the 20 year and I’m house Poor. I think I have 16 years left. I would just waste the extra money anyways for me right now the kids school is a big one. Eli will finish 6th grade then go to public middle school. When the other two go public I’ll have that extra money monthly. Should have around 7 years left on the house. That 1800 a month could go to toys or just pay the house off even quicker. I dunno seems like a long time from now but that’s the plan.

An extra 1800 a month would probably knock 5-6 years off.

Edit: But that 1800 could also go into a rental property etc too.

 

[Cole Trickle]

I wonder what rate they had 20 years ago. If the payment doesn’t change I could 1,000s of people doing this lol.

Like you said the only one it hurt$ are the kids.

They refinanced in the 90's and bought a car

They refinanced in the 00's and did some work around the house or paid for kids college.

They refinanced in the 10's to cash out the divorced partner.

They refinanced in the 20's for some cash and a good rate.

I see a definite pattern in its not just a couple of them..... Owe 750k on a million dollar house after 30 years.

Had a client short sale his house in 2009. Asked him when he bought it and he said he paid 75k for it in 1979 and owed 600k and it was only worth 500k when the market crashed....Enter shake head emoji

 

[BHC Vic]

An extra 1800 a month would probably knock 5-6 years off.

Edit: But that 1800 could also go into a rental property etc too.

Yea at that point my wife and I need to sit down and reevaluate things maybe talk to a professional. Right now some months I can save others are tough. 1800 a month for school is a lot when you think about it. Plus the nanny and sports man these little guys are expensive they like to eat too go figure

 

[hallett21]

They refinanced in the 90's and bought a car

They refinanced in the 00's and did some work around the house or paid for kids college.

They refinanced in the 10's to cash out the divorced partner.

They refinanced in the 20's for some cash and a good rate.

I see a definite pattern in its not just a couple of them..... Owe 750k on a million dollar house after 30 years.

Had a client short sale his house in 2009. Asked him when he bought it and he said he paid 75k for it in 1979 and owed 600k and it was only worth 500k when the market crashed....Enter shake head emoji

Idk what the answer is because I think their moves cost them a bunch of money (equity).

But equity only helps when you sell. And then you gotta go buy something else to live in. So what did you “gain” over 20-30 years?

And then the question is. Is 6 figures today worth more (spending power on something cash flowing hopefully) than freeing up an extra 3-5k 20 to 30 years from now? All assuming the monthly payment stays the same.

 

[Cole Trickle]

Everyone tells me I’m dumb for going on the 20 year and I’m house Poor. I think I have 16 years left. I would just waste the extra money anyways for me right now the kids school is a big one. Eli will finish 6th grade then go to public middle school. When the other two go public I’ll have that extra money monthly. Should have around 7 years left on the house. That 1800 a month could go to toys or just pay the house off even quicker. I dunno seems like a long time from now but that’s the plan.

I think its a good plan.

Most people don't have the discipline to pay extra per month unless forced.

I refinanced my Corona house to a 15 and the payment went up. I was throwing extra at it and I want to say I was close to single digits left when i sold.

Moving and buying a bigger more expensive house set me back in that department but I'm on track for 18 more years and will continue to throw even more at it when i can. I choose a 30 and throw an extra $400 at it religiously as a 15 would have been scary and a bad gamble if anything didn't go perfect.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

They will sell their great great great grandkids out if they don't have to give an inch in their lifestyle.

When do we start the Boomer Euthanasia Program and finish these hippies off? COVID did not hit hard enough; we need a more direct route.

 

[Cole Trickle]

When do we start the Boomer Euthanasia Program and finish these hippies off? COVID did not hit hard enough; we need a more direct route.

Free Winter Cruises on Titanic II , III , IIII?

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Free Winter Cruises on Titanic II , III , IIII?

I think they tried that with COVID and the Cruise Lines. These damn hippies are pickled and can't be killed. Likely, we will get 30 more years of them; feels like Groundhog Day. Vampires.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

They refinanced in the 90's and bought a car

They refinanced in the 00's and did some work around the house or paid for kids college.

They refinanced in the 10's to cash out the divorced partner.

They refinanced in the 20's for some cash and a good rate.

I see a definite pattern in its not just a couple of them..... Owe 750k on a million dollar house after 30 years.

Had a client short sale his house in 2009. Asked him when he bought it and he said he paid 75k for it in 1979 and owed 600k and it was only worth 500k when the market crashed....Enter shake head emoji

If you view your house as rent control and can afford the payment, it is an easy sell. Buy what you want as the price goes up and not touch your other investments. Dude probably lived there for free for 30 years when it was all said and done. That said he could have had it paid off too.

 

[Cole Trickle]

If you view your house as rent control and can afford the payment, it is an easy sell. Buy what you want as the price goes up and not touch your other investments. Dude probably lived there for free for 30 years when it was all said and done. That said he could have had it paid off too.

I believe he choose not to work for very long stretches while living the same lifestyle...lol

 

[Flyinbowtie]

One newer factor being baked into the market in our area, and in many others from what I have read, is the astronomical increases in homeowners insurance, when it is available outside of the "fair" plan.
In our case this went from $1800 to just a tic over $5000 in 4 years. Yes, we live in wildfire country in northern California.
This adds over 400 a month to the monthly nut for a new buyer. That new buyer is probably going to have no choice but to go to the state run plan and then get a secondary rider from the open market via a broker/agent for a wrap around package to cover their personal property.
We have seen the market in our area slow way, way down as this has happened, along with the other factors we all are looking at these days.
Wife and I have been trying to get out for a couple years now. I am hoping the market for our place comes back at least long enough for us to sell and de-ass the state. As others have said there are troubled waters ahead.
Our place is most attractive to a younger family with kids who want to live the rural lifestyle and have need of a shop. It takes work to maintain the property. What with the moves on the Dollar and our internal issues we are facing more uncertainty than I recall in my lifetime. We will be sitting down with our agent and talking again about the middle of March.
Living with half our stuff packed for 2 years has not been fun.

 

[RiverDave]

If rates go down and that causes prices to go up again drastically, I would think that if you've been on the fence about selling your house, then this would be a good time to sell. Again that's only if rates go down and housing prices explode because I honestly can't see this economy going the way it has after the presidential race is over and someone has been voted in. Credit card debts are astronomical now and will only get worse this year. Something has got to give so I think this will be the last hoorah!! I will definitely take into consideration selling my current house because I want to move to Westlake Village area so maybe sell and rent for a year. We shall see.

If the prices are going to go up.. why would you sell before they do?

 

[shintoooo]

If the prices are going to go up.. why would you sell before they do?

I said I would think about selling when prices start climbing back up, not now.

 

[mesquito_creek]

An extra 1800 a month would probably knock 5-6 years off.

Edit: But that 1800 could also go into a rental property etc too.

Paying off that mortgage and the 1800 can also mean financial independence and retiring early. At some point one might just get tired of financing other peoples lifestyle!

 

[BHC Vic]

Paying off that mortgage and the 1800 can also mean financial independence and retiring early. At some point one might just get tired of financing other peoples lifestyle!

I would really like to retire from the union at 45 and go on to do something for myself.

 

[angiebaby]

None of this will stop people from living their lives and over spending into oblivion though. Americans in 2024 aren't cut out for roughing it. They will sell their great great great grandkids out if they don't have to give an inch in their lifestyle.

FIFY Americans are soft. Humans in Africa and Asia rough it every day.

My parents paid off their home when they were almost 60. My mom retired in her late 50s for health reasons, and dad retired at 63 when he became eligible for Social Security. They sold their paid for house in 2014, took the cash and built a beautiful home and shop on 5 acres in N. Idaho that was within their budget. They have no house payment, low taxes, and insurance. They can live comfortably on their social security and an annuity because they do not have a mortgage.

The benefit of the paid off home is not for their kids, it's so they don't have to worry about rent or mortgage. They have a secured income that pays for whatever they need. They are in their mid-70s and have not had a house payment in 15 years.

 

[Orange Juice]

FIFY

My parents paid off their home when they were almost 60. My mom retired in her late 50s for health reasons, and dad retired at 63 when he became eligible for Social Security. They sold their paid for house in 2014, took the cash and built a beautiful home and shop on 5 acres in N. Idaho that was within their budget. They have no house payment, low taxes, and insurance. They can live comfortably on their social security and an annuity because they do not have a mortgage.

The benefit of the paid off home is not for their kids, it's so they don't have to worry about rent or mortgage. They have a secured income that pays for whatever they need. They are in their mid-70s and have not had a house payment in 15 years.

Social Security covers water, food and basic healthcare. If you’re lucky, you might have a couple hundred for a rented room.
(That’s if you you worked most of your life under a W2)

I’m 62 and been paid off for 8 years + The trick is not moving, and paying home off before it needs new carpet and a bathroom remodel. I’ve heard some people can do it in 5 years.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Social Security covers water, food and basic healthcare. If you’re lucky, you might have a couple hundred for a rented room.
(That’s if you you worked most of your life under a W2)

I’m 62 and been paid off for 8 years + The trick is not moving, and paying home off before it needs new carpet and a bathroom remodel. I’ve heard some people can do it in 5 years.

You just described the self inflicted problem. You don’t “need” a remodel every 10 years. You’ve just been conditioned to want one.

 

[angiebaby]

Social Security covers water, food and basic healthcare. If you’re lucky, you might have a couple hundred for a rented room.
(That’s if you you worked most of your life under a W2)

I’m 62 and been paid off for 8 years + The trick is not moving, and paying home off before it needs new carpet and a bathroom remodel. I’ve heard some people can do it in 5 years.

My dad gets VA care, so that helps out considerably. They also have a small side business- BiminiClips (clips to attach towels and stuff to your bimini rail) that brings in a little play money. They buy tractors, snowblowers, trip to Jamaica, etc., fun stuff here and there. Paid off my mom's subaru one year from that. So she has a newer car and their house was built in 2014. They are doing fine . . . because they don't have a mortgage.

 

[nameisbond]

They banned short term rentals here and now small condos are on the brink of collapsing: https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/fin...p&cvid=2b5c1317af7248e68035db0e12dc42cc&ei=17

 

[angiebaby]

They banned short term rentals here and now small condos are on the brink of collapsing: https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/fin...p&cvid=2b5c1317af7248e68035db0e12dc42cc&ei=17

Is that rule for the entire province?

 

[badgas]

Paying off that mortgage and the 1800 can also mean financial independence and retiring early. At some point one might just get tired of financing other peoples lifestyle!

Great point !

You won't hate financial independence. Like Dave Ramsey always says " you can always go back into debt if you hate being debt free "

to @BHC Vic beware of " Everyone " as in " Everyone Tells me " you get to choose your path and Everyone ( statistically ) is rat on wheel and broke.