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For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

Cdog

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Doom pimps are still beating off to their REM songs. Meanwhile data across the board shows rebound in surprising places.

There’s definitely a correction out there in the seas of cheese but it’s likely beyond the near future. Demographic shifts demands in ways we’ve never seen or experienced. The wealthiest generation ever is retiring in mass and spending YOLO cash because they know their millennial children are just gonna spend it on tattoos and only fans.

Sure its schizo, welcome to the world we live in .


 

LargeOrangeFont

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Doom pimps are still beating off to their REM songs. Meanwhile data across the board shows rebound in surprising places.

There’s definitely a correction out there in the seas of cheese but it’s likely beyond the near future. Demographic shifts demands in ways we’ve never seen or experienced. The wealthiest generation ever is retiring in mass and spending YOLO cash because they know their millennial children are just gonna spend it on tattoos and only fans.

Sure its schizo, welcome to the world we live in .



We are coming up on a decade now 🤣.
 

BigQ

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Market seems much more resilient then anyone would have expected. Our forecast for 2023 was to build/sell 100 homes and we ended up doing 140. This last December was hot and our materials cost are significantly down and we’re raising prices in several of our communities. $650-900k stuff is moving aggressively. On a side note lot inventory is down and it’s a battle to find finished buildable lots. We’re seeing a lot of cash buyers and families getting creative to help their children into homes.
The cash buyers is interesting. I read a few articles about out of country purchases such as China dropping cash which keeps the pricing high. Also read that after the 08 loan crap the inventory was pretty high and a lot of hedge funds and corporations buying single family homes which is driving the prices and rents. A new bill was just introduced that would require them to liquidate over 10 years or face severe tax penalties. It will be interesting to see how that would affect the market if they started dumping SFH in the inventory.
 

Englewood

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The cash buyers is interesting. I read a few articles about out of country purchases such as China dropping cash which keeps the pricing high. Also read that after the 08 loan crap the inventory was pretty high and a lot of hedge funds and corporations buying single family homes which is driving the prices and rents. A new bill was just introduced that would require them to liquidate over 10 years or face severe tax penalties. It will be interesting to see how that would affect the market if they started dumping SFH in the inventory.
Hedge funds buying up all the homes is a fake-news scare tactic to hate those “big mean corporations”.

82m homes in US. Hedge funds own 574,000. They own 0.7% of homes.


Zero chance that bill passes. Unfortunately, Hedge Funds run the world.
 
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HTMike

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I think even the doom and gloomers ( myself included ) have enough acumen to realize when rates jumped up and pricing really didn't fall was a sign things are not going to be as bad as they thought. Now, the fed lowers the rate 1-1.5 and we will see lift off again. The other thing to realize ( myself included ) is we will have some run away inflation again. The best place to bury cash during inflation is always real estate. This is not going to help matters either.

I think the next two years will be a race to be either the renter or rentee.
 

regor

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I think even the doom and gloomers ( myself included ) have enough acumen to realize when rates jumped up and pricing really didn't fall was a sign things are not going to be as bad as they thought. Now, the fed lowers the rate 1-1.5 and we will see lift off again. The other thing to realize ( myself included ) is we will have some run away inflation again. The best place to bury cash during inflation is always real estate. This is not going to help matters either.

I think the next two years will be a race to be either the renter or rentee.

Inflation is driving all of this.

Money is pouring into RE to keep pace with it and it's SCREWING the majority below Gen X, who don't have parents that can help.

1704476662359.png


The Jekyll Island boys are ALWAYS at the root of the problem.
 

Orange Juice

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I’m in a weird spot. We switched to a 15 year loan because I want to pay the house off quick. Payment is high though. Everyone told me I should have stayed 30 and just sent extra. I know I wouldn’t have… oh well once this one is laid off I can focus on the next. I’m like a 2.8 or something going back to a 30 would be rough.
There's nothing better then a paid-off house. It's at that point you realize just how how broke you are.
I had to replace my 20-year-old air conditioner the same month I paid off the house. 😂
 

BHC Vic

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There's nothing better then a paid-off house. It's at that point you realize just how how broke you are.
I had to replace my 20-year-old air conditioner the same month I paid off the house. 😂
Lol I did that the first month we owned the house so I’m sure by the time it’s paid off we’ll be about due 😂
 

Orange Juice

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Inflation is driving all of this.

Money is pouring into RE to keep pace with it and it's SCREWING the majority below Gen X, who don't have parents that can help.

View attachment 1319640

The Jekyll Island boys are ALWAYS at the root of the problem.
It's called generational wealth.
If you don't have it, it’s called Generational trauma. 😁
Blame your parents, don't blame the government. 🤣
 

YeahYeah01

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I think flipping would have been very scary over the past couple years with the cost of materials and labor and bidding wars.

You better be really smart , really lucky or be able to handle all the upgrade's and repairs yourself.
I had wanted to do it for years... Then this last year my moms house that other family had rented for years was vacant and in rough shape. After a bunch of debates about what to do I ended up taking the project on to upgrade/rehab and get it sold for her. That way she could have a little nest egg. I covered the costs of everything and she just paid me back what I put in nothing else when she sold. Ended up doing almost everything solo or with a couple buddies, I subbed out the roof (complete tear off) and carpet. A ton of work, lots of skim coating, textured the entire house, electrical work, plumbing work, new flooring where carpet didnt go, all new kitchen, all new bathrooms, new windows, paint inside and out. It took about 3 months, lots of evening hours off work, fridays I'd stay until about mid night and then back at all weekend for 12 plus hours each day. I took one day off for the Superbowl. (I have a very understanding wife lol). We had the house sold before I was even done to the neighbors son, No agents involved.

It was a huge learning experience for as what it actually takes, but I did know the history of home so that helped with no surprises. I am on the fence as to if i'd do it again. It's not feasible to it yourself and work full time, that was a crazy 3 months for me and my family and I would not want to do that again. If you had a good network of subs that were FAST and decent pricing then it starts to makes sense but if your just getting into it's rare to have the network.
 

mesquito_creek

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There's nothing better then a paid-off house. It's at that point you realize just how how broke you are.
I had to replace my 20-year-old air conditioner the same month I paid off the house. 😂

After 26 years I am starting to plan for my 3rd AC replacement… the 20 year old first pool remodel is going to need to be a 2nd pool remodel soon also.
 

hallett21

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I just don’t see it. This country has never been in worse shape. Definitely don’t believe government numbers on inflation and employment. Government and personal debt is thru the roof.
if inflation is hotter than what’s being reported wouldn’t real estate, metals and physical goods be the better investment?

Personally I think the runaway train left the station after 2008. They (Gov/fed/banks) could have put the hurt on our economy and let it heal. Now there’s just no way. Short of going to war and “deleting” the debts.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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if inflation is hotter than what’s being reported wouldn’t real estate, metals and physical goods be the better investment?

Personally I think the runaway train left the station after 2008. They (Gov/fed/banks) could have put the hurt on our economy and let it heal. Now there’s just no way. Short of going to war and “deleting” the debts.

Think about it.. most of what we are paying is to ourselves.

This is going to be what they will use to drive a “Great Reset”

China owes more to us that’s we owe to them.. and they are in default.
 

hallett21

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Think about it.. most of what we are paying is to ourselves.

This is going to be what they will use to drive a “Great Reset”

China owes more to us that’s we owe to them.. and they are in default.
Which has me questioning them leaving the dollar for oil purchases. Are they just taking the L and trying to make it up somewhere else?
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Which has me questioning them leaving the dollar for oil purchases. Are they just taking the L and trying to make it up somewhere else?

The dollar is still the most polished turd of a currency on the planet. As long as it stays that way, it’s going to be hard to move away from that. If we turned on oil production again, that would also pivot us back to the dollar.
 

hallett21

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The dollar is still the most polished turd currency on the planet. As long as it stays that way, it’s going to be hard to move away from that. If we turned on oil production again, that would also pivot us back to the dollar.
But why would China want to use their currency (devaluing the Dollar) for oil purchases while they hold a bunch of our notes? They’ve already “leant” the money, so why would they want to devalue their investment?
 

LargeOrangeFont

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But why would China want to use their currency (devaluing the Dollar) for oil purchases while they hold a bunch of our notes? They’ve already “leant” the money, so why would they want to devalue their investment?

China owes more to us than we owe to them. And they are in default.

We owe China $850B. China owes us about $1T, and they are not paying.

And look at what China is freely able to buy here… what can we go buy in China? - nothing.

I think they are getting their money’s worth from the destabilizing factor alone.
 

PlanB

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No.. they issued a lot of leases to explore for drilling.. sounds great right? But then they put a bunch of red tape across the application and actual drilling processes effectively making the leases useless.
You might be right about the Biden admin, but we are at record levels right now when it comes to oil production.

 

Sportin' Wood

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Does anyone know when Carmagedon is expected to start? I heard that it was coming many months ago and still no signs of the used car market glut. I'd like to buy a truck next year.
Does anyone have a feel for price cuts on automobiles these days? I'm still not seeing any significant depreciation in the asking prices yet, but perhaps they are dealing in person. It looks like the nice older stuff is moving private party; the more modern dealer stuff seems to be sitting for what I have been looking at.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Does anyone have a feel for price cuts on automobiles these days? I'm still not seeing any significant depreciation in the asking prices yet, but perhaps they are dealing in person. It looks like the nice older stuff is moving private party; the more modern dealer stuff seems to be sitting for what I have been looking at.

With jobs not really being impacted, rates primed to drop. and car supply still seemingly low, it does not seem anyone is in desperation mode at this point. People are going to keep asking all the money.
 

Done-it-again

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Does anyone have a feel for price cuts on automobiles these days? I'm still not seeing any significant depreciation in the asking prices yet, but perhaps they are dealing in person. It looks like the nice older stuff is moving private party; the more modern dealer stuff seems to be sitting for what I have been looking at.
Depending on what brand of car. Porsche still has markups and popular models, might get MSRP on Escalades. I received about 5% off my BMW X7 m60i on a custom build, but hearing from others getting closer to 10% off on floor units.
 

regor

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This should help home prices………inflate!!! 🤣

1704828254864.jpeg


All while we borrow 2 BILLION a day!! 😆

Johnson is indeed a bought and paid for RINO POS.
 

Cole Trickle

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Does anyone have a feel for price cuts on automobiles these days? I'm still not seeing any significant depreciation in the asking prices yet, but perhaps they are dealing in person. It looks like the nice older stuff is moving private party; the more modern dealer stuff seems to be sitting for what I have been looking at.
Certain stuff is coming back down to reality. Chrysler products seems to be down almost across the board with incentives and special financing.

Chevy is making deals just not on special stuff.

I don't think we will see deals on Ford like pre pandemic. Buddy of mine is a large fleet guy and they said a couple years back they are going the Toyota route and won't build as much so they don't have a ton of stuff sitting on lots that need to be discounted.

Hyundai and kia are at least playing a little ball.

Toyota/Honda/Acura....good luck

Honestly other than certain truck companies I'm not sure we will ever see pre 2020 deals again. The new normal is msrp it seems.

Used car market won't be cheap until we see a large influx of repos (it has dropped but no crazy deals). That's going to take serious job loss because nobody is walking away from cheap interest rates or trashing there fico score unless they have to. RV's are the same its cheaper to keeper unless you are going down the drain in all aspects.
 

Sportin' Wood

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With jobs not really being impacted, rates primed to drop. and car supply still seemingly low, it does not seem anyone is in desperation mode at this point. People are going to keep asking all the money.
Depending on what brand of car. Porsche still has markups and popular models, might get MSRP on Escalades. I received about 5% off my BMW X7 m60i on a custom build, but hearing from others getting closer to 10% off on floor units.
Certain stuff is coming back down to reality. Chrysler products seems to be down almost across the board with incentives and special financing.

Chevy is making deals just not on special stuff.

I don't think we will see deals on Ford like pre pandemic. Buddy of mine is a large fleet guy and they said a couple years back they are going the Toyota route and won't build as much so they don't have a ton of stuff sitting on lots that need to be discounted.

Hyundai and kia are at least playing a little ball.

Toyota/Honda/Acura....good luck

Honestly other than certain truck companies I'm not sure we will ever see pre 2020 deals again. The new normal is msrp it seems.

Used car market won't be cheap until we see a large influx of repos (it has dropped but no crazy deals). That's going to take serious job loss because nobody is walking away from cheap interest rates or trashing there fico score unless they have to. RV's are the same its cheaper to keeper unless you are going down the drain in all aspects.

So, the claims of Carmagedon were just marketing hype. :)
 

EmpirE231

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Does anyone have a feel for price cuts on automobiles these days? I'm still not seeing any significant depreciation in the asking prices yet, but perhaps they are dealing in person. It looks like the nice older stuff is moving private party; the more modern dealer stuff seems to be sitting for what I have been looking at.

saw a billboard from Dutton advertising 10k off all 2023 Sierra's in stock.

definitely better than deals of last year
 

NicPaus

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George chevrloet sign shows 11k off on half tons. Getting lots of emails from dealerships I have bought from. Funny how they are reaching out after trying to bend me over during covid. Now wanting my business back. The new truck I want to order no deals on it yet just back to msrp.
 

Cdog

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I get these updates on our Q7 via email from car fax. Our 2018 Q7 went from 34k to hovering just over 20k in a year for trade in. I can’t imagine dealers are getting msrp or anything close to it anymore.

I think we’re going to be Denali shopping towards the end of this year once the warranty runs out on this q7.

Seems March is the best time to buy a GM product with factory discounts
 

Englewood

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Certain stuff is coming back down to reality. Chrysler products seems to be down almost across the board with incentives and special financing.

Chevy is making deals just not on special stuff.

I don't think we will see deals on Ford like pre pandemic. Buddy of mine is a large fleet guy and they said a couple years back they are going the Toyota route and won't build as much so they don't have a ton of stuff sitting on lots that need to be discounted.

Hyundai and kia are at least playing a little ball.

Toyota/Honda/Acura....good luck

Honestly other than certain truck companies I'm not sure we will ever see pre 2020 deals again. The new normal is msrp it seems.

Used car market won't be cheap until we see a large influx of repos (it has dropped but no crazy deals). That's going to take serious job loss because nobody is walking away from cheap interest rates or trashing there fico score unless they have to. RV's are the same its cheaper to keeper unless you are going down the drain in all aspects.
Ram,Chrysler, and Dodge have the most inventory currently. I imagine they will be the first to make deals.
 

RiverDave

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1 1/2yrs of arguing when it’s going to fall and we’re taking bets on when it’s going to explode. 😂

So fucking bizarre to me.. LOL.

It's gonna crash it's gonna crash it's gonna crash!!

Shit buy now because when the rates drop it's gonna sky rocket it's gonna sky rocket!

WTF?

RD
 

hallett21

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Starting to see homes being listed at under 1.5 million go under contract within 60 days. Anything under 900 seems to be less than 30 days.
 

stillhustlin

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Does anyone have a feel for price cuts on automobiles these days? I'm still not seeing any significant depreciation in the asking prices yet, but perhaps they are dealing in person. It looks like the nice older stuff is moving private party; the more modern dealer stuff seems to be sitting for what I have been looking at.
Buddy just bought a 2024 Silverado 2500 zr2 for $7k off msrp. Had to go to Indiana to get it.
 

hallett21

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So fucking bizarre to me.. LOL.

It's gonna crash it's gonna crash it's gonna crash!!

Shit buy now because when the rates drop it's gonna sky rocket it's gonna sky rocket!

WTF?

RD
Now I want to panic lol. I haven’t been told by my Uber driver to buy yet so I think we’re still ok.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Ram,Chrysler, and Dodge have the most inventory currently. I imagine they will be the first to make deals.

Mark Dodge has some pretty good deals. $15K off a $63K 2023 RAM. Over $13K off 2024s.
 

shintoooo

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If rates go down and that causes prices to go up again drastically, I would think that if you've been on the fence about selling your house, then this would be a good time to sell. Again that's only if rates go down and housing prices explode because I honestly can't see this economy going the way it has after the presidential race is over and someone has been voted in. Credit card debts are astronomical now and will only get worse this year. Something has got to give so I think this will be the last hoorah!! I will definitely take into consideration selling my current house because I want to move to Westlake Village area so maybe sell and rent for a year. We shall see.
 
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