D

[530RL]

Bunt, sac fly and hit 'n run is strategy through end of year. Equities may finally be asked to pay the piper for debt-laden balance sheets. Debt service will be an issue for gov't, corp and individuals. Will likely be a ballast for rates moving too high. It would throw econ into paralysis. Often big VIX days are opps to cash in a bit and come back for next opportunity. Moves are rarely linear. Sky isn't falling.

GLD has no pulse. My commodity money is hiding in Oil.

Other than folding it into a circle and giving away half your money, I've never found gold that attractive.

I look around and ask people every day how much more do they think they are paying for daily stuff and the universal answer is a lot more. One lady in a company I'm involved in said a 100 dollar bill is like a 20 five years ago. My premise is that real inflation is much higher than reported. Prices for inputs are rising rapidly whether it be labor, electronics, 50 or 60% increases in lumber, chemical prices due to oil, or anything that is now subject to tariffs. So current discount rates may not accurately reflect the circumstances in the marketplace.

Combine that with the difficulty of comparing 2018 growth rates due to a corporate tax cut that will vanish in the 2019 quarter over quarter comparisons and you have slowing growth in reported earnings combined with the possibility of rising discount rates for whatever the stream of earnings are.

Maybe it keeps going up. I have no idea.

But I'd much rather focus on short duration assets. If I lose half my money I have to double my money to get back to even. First is return of capital, second is return on capital. That is math I understand.........

 

[shintoooo]

Well today was nerve wrecking to say the least. It was FDA AdCom for ACRX. I was listening to it while working. I was positive at first that it would get approved but as the day went on it turned negative. I was ready to lose my ass.

I honestly didn’t know what was going to happen but lo and behold they voted....

10-3 they voted in favor of passing it.

Stock is still halted. Waiting anxiously for it to open.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ACRX?p=ACRX

 

[Uncle Dave]

GLD has no pulse. My commodity money is hiding in Oil.

Did pretty well on an offfset drill once..

GLD as in Gold? Id bet as oil goes up gold will follow because it take oil to get gold.

Plenty of foolish stances on gold. It is not money. It is fungible in most attainable forms. It is an asset.
Plenty of good reasons to own it (the physical medium that is) not gold "stock".
Ask yourself why central banks hoard it.
Since it cant be created by fiat it is unique as wealth preservation system as well as portable wealth transfer.
If you are already in - its tough to support - no dividend, or split capability, only potential appreciation.

Shintoo -fun ride, thanks for sharing.

UD

 

[530RL]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...r-gMDJBKWv3SO41g4FtT4h4alY/edit#gid=467287581

 

[Uncle Dave]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...r-gMDJBKWv3SO41g4FtT4h4alY/edit#gid=467287581

Aweome work!

Gonna watch this.

UD

 

[530RL]

Ughhhhh

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...r-gMDJBKWv3SO41g4FtT4h4alY/edit#gid=467287581

 

[Uncle Dave]

Ughhhhh

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...r-gMDJBKWv3SO41g4FtT4h4alY/edit#gid=467287581

Ouch - some real turds in there!

UD

 

[Halvecto]

Ouch - some real turds in there!

UD

FYI, I updated the MTD (month to date) column for November. Best to know for sure what and why $ is invested.

 

[530RL]

Why not make this even more interesting?

Instead of the RDP Weight Loss Challenge, start an RDP Financial Freedom Loss Challenge and let's see who can pick a 6 month winner.
A hypothetical, or actual to be more interesting, $1,000.00 single drop investment. Winner get's nothing more than his gains and bragging rights.
Maybe exclude Mutual Funds?

You're semi retired, put it together or just dump it in Old School's lap. He enjoys it.

FYI, I updated the MTD (month to date) column for November. Best to know for sure what and why $ is invested.

Maybe a new 6 month deal starting on Christmas day? Would seem to be like a positive day to start.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Who does ins in so cal info thanks

 

[GRADS]

We could start over, you guys pick stocks, I'll take my $1000 and shove it between my mattresses and we'll see who does better in 6 months.

 

[Classic Daycruiser]

We could start over, you guys pick stocks, I'll take my $1000 and shove it between my mattresses and we'll see who does better in 6 months.

The person holding the note to your mortgage is doing better.

 

[bowtiejunkie]

The nominees and results so far...............

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...-VtzEhgOg0_fW8FDXRNwHrYgn4ue14Odxi5fZ/pubhtml

I it will update as prices change and browser is refreshed. I will confirm it Monday.

I can add symbols as they are "nominated".

@Halvecto Would you be willing to do this again for the forth-coming 6-month period? Those who want to throw a stock ticker or two into the pot have until Dec 14th, then we'll start another 6-month period. Sound good??

Looks like my Campbell Soup pick did ok for the current 6-month period, but General Mills fell off the wagon completely in recent weeks. I'm still holding my shares I purchased with $1000 for each.

 

[Halvecto]

@Halvecto Would you be willing to do this again for the forth-coming 6-month period? Those who want to throw a stock ticker or two into the pot have until Dec 14th, then we'll start another 6-month period. Sound good??

Looks like my Campbell Soup pick did ok for the current 6-month period, but General Mills fell off the wagon completely in recent weeks. I'm still holding my shares I purchased with $1000 for each.

Agreed. CPB was a sleeper and perfect pick for this schizo period. Pacific Gas stock was solid until the NorCal - Paradise fire. Stock has gotten hammered since. Mr. Market has not been kind to FAANGS and other high flyers recently. Some leaders will likely bounce back.

I updated the Month-to-date for December.

Will be very interesting to see what the averages do next week. We closed very near the recent ^SPX lows (2635+\-) for the third time in last 3 months. A lower low here and the fact we are below the 50 & 200 means there could be some woosh days, up and or down.

Be careful kids. Keep your arms and legs inside at all times. It's a pickers market.



No problem to put together another: RDP Stock Picks II.


Post up your picks by 12/14. Six months 12/17/18 - 6/17/2019. I"ll create a similar layout. I welcome ideas to improve or add data as well. If anyone needs help with a ticker or is trying to track a certain asset, let me know.

 

[Halvecto]

Gang, we hit the 6 month mark Friday. Been a significant shift in market sentiments and overall economics. I made some updates to the spreadsheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b7vnYkPvgSIKiNDrfr-gMDJBKWv3SO41g4FtT4h4alY/edit?usp=sharing

@bowtiejunkie asked me to put together another one for next 6 months (can track for year or whatever). It's just for fun and the chance to heckle each other.

RDP Stock Picks II. Reply with your picks here to keep this thread going, or a new one can be started.


6 Month performance (6/14/2018 - 12/14/2018):

Avg. (mean): -21.97%
Median: -19.8%

20 = negative
3 = positive

Largest gain: CPB (Campbell Soup Co) 9.18%
Largest loss: NM (Navios Maritime Holdings) -69.32%

Interesting:
10 yr Treasury yield down .06 basis points (2.95% to 2.89%). This is a bet very few would have made.
Gold -4.4%
Oil -22% another surprise!

Only one of the late additions (not calculated in "contest") is positive (CVSI). Most others are down big.

TOP 5 $1k Invest Performance

CPB $1,091.76 9.18% @bowtiejunkie
CGC $1,048.49 4.85% @Classic Daycruiser @HgH Vltg
ALK $1,007.04 0.70% @ParkerMagic
EASI $955.71 -4.43% @Halvecto
AMZN $923.56 -7.65%
FULL DISCLOSURE: I am a partner in a small equity research and index consulting startup firm. We created & own the Earnings Acceleration Stock Index. The Amplify EASI Tactical Growth ETF ($EASI) tracks one of our proprietary Index. I have a "conflict-of-interest", thus biased.

DIA (Dow 30) $962.32 -3.77%
QQQ (Nasdaq 100) $949.55 -5.05%
SPY (S&P500) $943.43 -5.66%

BOTTOM 5

NM $306.82 -69.32% @spotondl
IQ $433.37 -56.66% @spotondl @shintoooo
LQMT $538.46 -46.15% @Icky (blow up happened, not likely the right direction)
ZUO $539.25 -46.08% @relaxalot
GE $555.72 -44.43% @Classic Daycruiser


Of note:
PCG $613.69 -38.63% @TCHB Pacific Gas & Elec took a beating from NorCal fire. It was a top performer prior to the disaster.
TWTR $745.30 -25.47%


* @530RL picked ^vix index options. Unable to determine pricing for options so don't know what performance is, but clearly a big winner! I use various ETFs fpr trading it to hedge volatility in equity long positions.
Fair Warning: anything connected to ^VIX is VERY fast moving (+/-) and needs constant monitoring.

@2Driver:
beat stock broker? Might still be true.

@ram78d10
Index Fund - see above

@Waffles
Bitcoin - ugh!

 

[Halvecto]

Well, one day difference and the top 5 change slightly, AMZN barely drops below GOOG. (never-mind bottom 5, won't add insult to injury):

CPB $1,082.72 8.27% @bowtiejunkie
CGC $995.93 -0.41% @Classic Daycruiser @HgH Vltg
ALK $990.88 -0.91% @ParkerMagic
EASI $956.50 -4.35% @Halvecto
GOOG $882.31 -11.77%

Now just one stock still positive for six months (+1 day).

 

[530RL]

FULL DISCLOSURE: I am a partner in a small equity research and index consulting startup firm. We created & own the Earnings Acceleration Stock Index. The Amplify EASI Tactical Growth ETF ($EASI) tracks one our proprietary Index. I have a "conflict-of-interest", thus biased.

The shoemakers children rarely have good shoes......

When did you finish your CFA?

 

[bowtiejunkie]

Gang, we hit the 6 month mark Friday. Been a significant shift in market sentiments and overall economics. I made some updates to the spreadsheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b7vnYkPvgSIKiNDrfr-gMDJBKWv3SO41g4FtT4h4alY/edit?usp=sharing

@bowtiejunkie asked me to put together another one for next 6 months (can track for year or whatever). It's just for fun and the chance to heckle each other.

RDP Stock Picks II. Reply with your picks here to keep this thread going, or a new one can be started.


6 Month performance (6/14/2018 - 12/14/2018):

Avg. (mean): -21.97%
Median: -19.8%

20 = negative
3 = positive

Largest gain: CPB (Campbell Soup Co) 9.18%
Largest loss: NM (Navios Maritime Holdings) -69.32%

Interesting:
10 yr Treasury yield down .06 basis points (2.95% to 2.89%). This is a bet very few would have made.
Gold -4.4%
Oil -22% another surprise!

Only one of the late additions (not calculated in "contest") is positive (CVSI). Most others are down big.

TOP 5 $1k Invest Performance

CPB $1,091.76 9.18% @bowtiejunkie
CGC $1,048.49 4.85% @Classic Daycruiser @HgH Vltg
ALK $1,007.04 0.70% @ParkerMagic
EASI $955.71 -4.43% @Halvecto
FULL DISCLOSURE: I am a partner in a small equity research and index consulting startup firm. We created & own the Earnings Acceleration Stock Index. The Amplify EASI Tactical Growth ETF ($EASI) tracks one our proprietary Index. I have a "conflict-of-interest", thus biased.

DIA (Dow 30) $962.32 -3.77%
QQQ (Nasdaq 100) $949.55 -5.05%
SPY (S&P500) $943.43 -5.66%

BOTTOM 5

NM $306.82 -69.32% @spotondl
IQ $433.37 -56.66% @spotondl @shintoooo
LQMT $538.46 -46.15% @Icky (blow up happened, not likely the right direction)
ZUO $539.25 -46.08% @relaxalot
GE $555.72 -44.43% @Classic Daycruiser


Of note:
PCG $613.69 -38.63% @TCHB Pacific Gas & Elec took a beating from NorCal fire. It was a top performer prior to the disaster.
TWTR $745.30 -25.47%


* @530RL picked ^vix index options. Unable to determine pricing for options so don't know what performance is, but clearly a big winner! I use various ETFs fpr trading it to hedge volatility in equity long positions.
Fair Warning: anything connected to ^VIX is VERY fast moving (+/-) and needs constant monitoring.

@2Driver:
beat stock broker? Might still be true.

@ram78d10
Index Fund - see above

@Waffles
Bitcoin - ugh!

thanks for the rundown @Halvecto . There was some decent diversification in all the picks, but crazy that just one was still positive after 6 months + 1 day. My personal portfolio didn't fare too well either. I need to pull a few stock picks out of the hat for the next session. Need to find another diamond in the rough.

 

[Halvecto]

The shoemakers children rarely have good shoes......

When did you finish your CFA?

Haha. Nope. Various other letters, but didn't have interest or see the benefit of that arduous process beyond an institutional, research/analyst path. Not my forte or personality. Analytics are helpful, but my work is a combination of art, science & experienced discipline. Most of securities markets are a result of economic inertia and human emotion.

 

[Halvecto]

thanks for the rundown @Halvecto . There was some decent diversification in all the picks, but crazy that just one was still positive after 6 months + 1 day. My personal portfolio didn't fare too well either. I need to pull a few stock picks out of the hat for the next session. Need to find another diamond in the rough.

Yep. An ugly period for most.

Don't be fancy.

I would think or hope that people owning stocks will have some sort of strategy beyond "buy and hope". That said, GE is taking some serious market capitalization / wealth (approx. $100 billion) out of the market this year. Wow.

 

[highvoltagehands]

Hey Halvecto, Nice job tracking picks, Are you still planning to do RDP stock picks II for first half of 2019 or ??? Where and when do you want the picks posted?

 

[Halvecto]

Hey Halvecto, Nice job tracking picks, Are you still planning to do RDP stock picks II for first half of 2019 or ??? Where and when do you want the picks posted?

Assuming there is a response and enough people want to join the fray, I'm glad to track another go of it. I will gather the names as they arrive on here and likely kick off the "official" race on Jan. 1. But I can get the numbers running right away. The market is normally slow and low volume from Christmas Eve thru end of year, but considering the last few days, it may be a last gasp either way.

The only awards I am aware of with this are "ATTABOY" trophies.

Post your picks as they come to mind....

 

[Halvecto]

Well ....today was a donkey-stomping! Results icture hasn't really changed other than most are worse for wear. A few exceptions hanging in quite well.

$CPB @bowtiejunkie You can go ahead, have a bowl of Chicken Noodle and toot your horn. Good one.

$ALK Dropping fuel prices and cost cutting has helped this stock in an otherwise dead money industry. Anecdotally, if you have to fly, Alaska Air is still a reasonably pleasant experience. Their values culture clearly impacts their corporate vibe.

$EASI No comment.....

FYI, it is rare that previous market leaders return to that stature in next cycle. Not impossible, but unlikely. Looking ahead, questions probably; are we headed to a period that slow & steady wins? Will a specific sector's leaders separate from the herd? Tide moves out and affects all boats?

 

[Halvecto]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b7vnYkPvgSIKiNDrfr-gMDJBKWv3SO41g4FtT4h4alY/edit?usp=sharing

Interesting last gasp at end of year. November and December were harsh. No individual stock picks finished the year in the positive. Even Campbell Soup rolled over in December.

 

[bowtiejunkie]

It was a crap year almost all the way around. Oh well. I’ll keep buying and the markets will come back. It always comes back.

I’ve been on vacation and before that closing out the year, so just staying away from phone/computer where I can.

For the next period, I’ll go with TAP and will pick another ticker and post tomorrow.

 

[Halvecto]

I mentioned before that there was no where to hide last year (2018). I found a graphic that gives perspective on it:

Previous list still calculating. January starting with a limp.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b7vnYkPvgSIKiNDrfr-gMDJBKWv3SO41g4FtT4h4alY/edit?usp=sharing