4th Is over and everyone is selling their toys??

[jmaxwell279]

River Dave Ramsey's Place

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LMFAO


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Bigbore500r]

 

[Cdog]

Sounds exactly like me in 2014.
We bought this house and wanted to keep my house as a rental.
We could pay both if the renter did not pay. But it would be a little tight but definitely doable.
But if I lost my job we would probably loose 1 of the houses.

Well tenant didn’t pay first 3 months lol. That was our hint to sell it, which we did. It’s now worth 100k more than I sold it for.
We just weren’t in the position to roll the dice. Now we are.

Timing bites you in the ass sometimes. Sucks....

My biggest problem is I'm too conservative. But I like to sleep at night without a gun to my head.

I generally pay cash or rush to pay off what I consider bad debt. IE vehicles & toys. Only payments are houses currently. My kids are 11 & almost 14 so we're spending our river trips funds on Volleyball and Swim team, over priced girls clothes and BS. Credit card goes up and down monthly.... I keep telling myself it's only a phase. This too shall pass........

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Post 48 says you have no debt. Now this post says you need to pay off your mortgage as fast as possible? Then you are arguing in this thread that its not wise to pay off a low cost mortgage because of the opportunity loss of using that capital for other investments?

You have me confused. haha. I'm just busting your balls.

For us having a mortgage paid off and being debt free has been the best piece of mind for myself and my wife. Everything can go to shit and we will still be fine. But I fully understand that argument of the opportunity loss and that just is not worth if for us. House was paid off right at 10 years ago and I'm only 41, so we have been able to plow 70-80ish% of our after tax earnings into investments for the past decade. This has also allowed me to go part time 3.5 years ago and we love the options that have given us.

So to clarify - no debt aside from mortgages here. Equity is way positive on the properties, and rentals are cash flow positive. I could pay the properties off free and clear if I liquidated other investments. But looking at the past performances of the other investments there is no logical reason to do so, especially looking back at the last 10 years. If I look back I can easily calculate the opportunity costs associated with paying my house off in 10 years from 2010 to 2020. My net worth gain by investing instead of paying off the house is staggering and pretty easy to calculate. If I just paid off the house I’d have a 401k and a paid off house for my net worth. My house would be what it is worth today and my 401k would be worth what it is worth today. Investing that money instead has over doubled my net worth from that “potential” net worth of just a paid off house and 401k.

In short I’m making more money than the mortgages are costing me, and the RE itself is appreciating.

I’m the almost the same age as you, if I lived outside of CA or bought somewhere cheaper in CA I could have paid less and have a paid off house around this time AND done other investment at the same time.

I completely understand the comfort of not having to make that monthly payment, I’d love it if my house was paid off. But again I look at the returns on other investments and it makes no logical sense to throw a ton of extra money at the house. I do throw an extra payment a year at it, and other little things to ease the burden on the back end a bit.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

River Dave Ramsey's Place

View attachment 1022784

Nope. Too many guys with new trucks. And Ramsey would say no one should ever live in CA.

 

[McKay]

So to clarify - no debt aside from mortgages here. Equity is way positive on the properties, and rentals are cash flow positive. I could pay the properties off free and clear if I liquidated other investments. But looking at the past performances of the other investments there is no logical reason to do so, especially looking back at the last 10 years. If I look back I can easily calculate the opportunity costs associated with paying my house off in 10 years from 2010 to 2020. My net worth gain by investing instead of paying off the house is staggering and pretty easy to calculate. If I just paid off the house I’d have a 401k and a paid off house for my net worth. My house would be what it is worth today and my 401k would be worth what it is worth today. Investing that money instead has over doubled my net worth from that “potential” net worth of just a paid off house and 401k.

In short I’m making more money than the mortgages are costing me, and the RE itself is appreciating.

I’m the almost the same age as you, if I lived outside of CA or bought somewhere cheaper in CA I could have paid less and have a paid off house around this time AND done other investment at the same time.

I completely understand the comfort of not having to make that monthly payment, I’d love it if my house was paid off. But again I look at the returns on other investments and it makes no logical sense to throw a ton of extra money at the house. I do throw an extra payment a year at it, and other little things to ease the burden on the back end a bit.

I absolutely understand your position. I would just add that looking back over the past decade yes that market run up has been incredible. We've done very well. But that is a too short of a term IMO to look at. Lets step back and talk about how we have done in the market the past 15 years? That is a whole different story. But regardless yes looking at 10 years or 20 obviously the market has done better than the cost of a 3% mortgage.

 

[highvoltagehands]

Mr. Orange!!!! That's one of the Names he is known by.

 

[badgas]

Nope. Too many guys with new trucks. And Ramsey would say no one should ever live in CA.

DR is totally fine with you owing a new truck. He just want's you to pay cash for it and have a net worth of 1million+ before doing so.

Just good old math and sound advice, If you are funding $1,500 monthly into depreciating assets when you could be investing in yourself you will never win.

 

[badgas]

For us having a mortgage paid off and being debt free has been the best piece of mind for myself and my wife. Everything can go to shit and we will still be fine. But I fully understand that argument of the opportunity loss and that just is not worth if for us. House was paid off right at 10 years ago and I'm only 41, so we have been able to plow 70-80ish% of our after tax earnings into investments for the past decade. This has also allowed me to go part time 3.5 years ago and we love the options that have given us.

This what freedom looks like !

The borrower is slave to the lender

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I absolutely understand your position. I would just add that looking back over the past decade yes that market run up has been incredible. We've done very well. But that is a too short of a term IMO to look at. Lets step back and talk about how we have done in the market the past 15 years? That is a whole different story. But regardless yes looking at 10 years or 20 obviously the market has done better than the cost of a 3% mortgage.

At 15 years you’d still be killing it with investments and that makes the case even further NOT to rush to pay off your house.

Again I'm not advocating one method is universally better than another. I'm saying just to use your head and keep your eyes open for good opportunities to advance towards your personal goals.

 

[CLdrinker]

DR is totally fine with you owing a new truck. He just want's you to pay cash for it and have a net worth of 1million+ before doing so.

Just good old math and sound advice, If you are funding $1,500 monthly into depreciating assets when you could be investing in yourself you will never win.

So would you think anyone with less than a million and a car payment is poor?

 

[Cdog]

This what freedom looks like !

The borrower is slave to the lender

You’re still a slave to government via property taxes. There is no thing such as free & clear. Every property is viewed as a vessel for personal benefit in one way or another. Just depends on what you’re looking to get out of it.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

So would you think anyone with less than a million and a car payment is poor?

If they live in CA, yes

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

You’re still a slave to government via property taxes. There is no thing such as free & clear. Every property is viewed as a vessel for personal benefit in one way or another. Just depends on what you’re looking to get out of it.

X1000

 

[DUNEFLYER]

As the value of the home has been going up do you also refi and pull more $$ out of the home at 3%ish so you can invest that extra $$ to try and earn 6+%?

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

As the value of the home has been going up do you also refi and pull more $$ out of the home at 3%ish so you can invest that extra $$ to try and earn 6+%?

That is a better strategy than buying a toy with the money LOL.

 

[CLdrinker]

If they live in CA, yes

Awe shit... not sure how to break this news to my wife.
Maybe I will tell her when I pick her and the kids up from the 8 day vacation they are on while driving them home in our near new paid off SUV.
Might be to soon to tell her that my 401k is up almost 60k in the last year.

Ya’ll want to donate to my gofund me account so I can giver her some kind of good news?

PS fuck Dave Ramsey

 

[DaytonaBabe]

Nah, just selling because we have a new toy on order

 

[done]

Foreclosures en mass won’t happen again. It benefits no one. Banks will get shored up and bailed out on the back end and the consumer will be stuck with the bill on the back end of their loan.

Anyone that bought 2019 or earlier has a great rate and no real reason to leave their home anyway. That is evidenced by the low inventories.

Exactly !

 

[HTMike]

I haven't had a payment in years ( including house ). Buckled down and paid everything off. Its crazy how much money you can sock away into 401k's and other long term investments when you have everything coming in and nothing going out. You become recession proof. It is fun walking into a dealer and stroking a check for anything you want as it has no effect on your long term goals. I completely understand peoples thoughts on making 8% here and paying 2% there.. but being debt free with large cash reserves is euphoric.

 

[RCDave]

Nah, just selling because we have a new toy on order

Perhaps a KMG 22?

 

[DaytonaBabe]

Perhaps a KMG 22?

Haha! Nah. Just listed our golf cart because we're getting a Ranger. Still set with the boat we have.... for now

 

[sintax]

i'm willing to buy a nice schiada RC at 2010 prices whenever you guys are hurting...

 

[RCDave]

Love that Daytona. Perfect for where you chill

 

[Meaney77]

So getting back to my original question......

 

[twocents]

According to the latest (May 2021) boat sales stats fromm NMMA, new boat sales have slowed down compared to one year ago. Not a lot, but enough to possibly indicate a coming trend. Some of this is obviously being caused by a lack of available new boat inventory. However, retail dealers are reporting some slowing of in-store traffic and less frenzied buying/demand.

 

[traquer]

There is nothing worse than getting into your 50s or 60s and not having a free and clear house. I have a few of these people in the family and it sucks. I guess time just flies by and they take out money from it or just made bad decisions. They're lucky Covid didn't start a recession and that they're still making good money so they can pay it off asap.

I'm 35 and what I'm trying to do is pay off the first house asap, double payments if I can, and then buy next house (once covid settles down) so that will be a rental that can have the minimum payment mostly paid by itself. When I retire I want to have at least one house paying me income each month, not the other way around.

 

[530RL]

According to the latest (May 2021) boat sales stats fromm NMMA, new boat sales have slowed down compared to one year ago. Not a lot, but enough to possibly indicate a coming trend. Some of this is obviously being caused by a lack of available new boat inventory. However, retail dealers are reporting some slowing of in-store traffic and less frenzied buying/demand.

That would be an interesting and quick slow down as they were reported to be up 30% in the March quarter of 21 over 20.

NMMA report indicates continued sales momentum | Boating Industry

The NMMA announced continued momentum of boat sales and boating demand propelled by the COVID-19 pandemic. New boat sales, which reached a 13-year high in

boatingindustry.com

 

[boatdoc55]

Post 48 says you have no debt. Now this post says you need to pay off your mortgage as fast as possible? Then you are arguing in this thread that its not wise to pay off a low cost mortgage because of the opportunity loss of using that capital for other investments?

You have me confused. haha. I'm just busting your balls.

For us having a mortgage paid off and being debt free has been the best piece of mind for myself and my wife. Everything can go to shit and we will still be fine. But I fully understand that argument of the opportunity loss and that just is not worth if for us. House was paid off right at 10 years ago and I'm only 41, so we have been able to plow 70-80ish% of our after tax earnings into investments for the past decade. This has also allowed me to go part time 3.5 years ago and we love the options that have given us.

Couldn't agree with this more!!!! I don't give a shit what anybody else says, being retired and debt free is the most piece of mind one can feel!!!!!

 

[boatnam2]

You boys need to wake up, just seen 2004 27 lavey for 115k, could be deal of the century. I would pick it up but working on a 2001 ultra jet boat with only 790 hours and only needs new interior to be sano. If your not first your last, I'm deal hunting on the daily.

 

[DILLIGAF]

I’m seeing a lot of lightly used 30-40k turbo rzrs for sale all of a sudden. Haha! Those things are ridiculously priced.

I’d like to upgrade my Toyhauler from the Genesis 34gs to the Momentum 398m but it’s a suckers bet to buy right now. I’ll wait till things calm down.

Boats.... seems like we go through this ever real estate boom.

Real estate - Supply & demand. Boomer migration, jobs & political refugees are all in play.

I know for sure there will be a reset eventually. Toys are the first things that trigger the alarms.

I just priced out a 351-M MSRP new without options....125K YIKES!

 

[hawgty55]

f*** it I didn't lose anything the last go-around I'm going to try to do it differently this time!

 

[Cdog]

I just priced out a 351-M MSRP new without options....125K YIKES!

They're high on their own flatulence! LOL! It will come down in time. I'll wait...

 

[Cdog]

There is nothing worse than getting into your 50s or 60s and not having a free and clear house. I have a few of these people in the family and it sucks. I guess time just flies by and they take out money from it or just made bad decisions. They're lucky Covid didn't start a recession and that they're still making good money so they can pay it off asap.

I'm 35 and what I'm trying to do is pay off the first house asap, double payments if I can, and then buy next house (once covid settles down) so that will be a rental that can have the minimum payment mostly paid by itself. When I retire I want to have at least one house paying me income each month, not the other way around.

I'm almost 10yrs ahead of you. I would make sure to refi at the best 30yr fixed you can get and save that cash you're using for double payments for when there is a correction in RE. Being in this business I can attest the banks don't want to lend money when people are looking a negative equity so having 20% cash down payment is key.

I'm in a situation where my rental will pay off what I owe on my primary. Aim for this somewhere around 60. Boom!

 

[AZLineman]

5.25 for premium and 4.35 for 87 at terribles in Jean today

I’m only paying for 4.69 a gallon for 100LL at the airport

 

[DILLIGAF]

They're high on their own flatulence! LOL! It will come down in time. I'll wait...

for people buying new right now it would be tough negotiating down though. Low inventory, etc

 

[NicPaus]

Can't blame them. These were 25k new plus fees. 6 years ago would of been a 12k boat. Market is crazy. Was at sandbar with friends the boat they were on they paid 16k 2 years ago. I asked to buy it and 30k. They probably could get the 30k if they listed it.

 

[Looking Glass]

Awe shit... not sure how to break this news to my wife.
Maybe I will tell her when I pick her and the kids up from the 8 day vacation they are on while driving them home in our near new paid off SUV.
Might be to soon to tell her that my 401k is up almost 60k in the last year.

Ya’ll want to donate to my gofund me account so I can giver her some kind of good news?

PS fuck Dave Ramsey

 

[Cdog]

for people buying new right now it would be tough negotiating down though. Low inventory, etc

Funny my drive through Utah there were several dealers with 100’s of trailers on the lots. Depends on manufacture I guess

 

[DWC]

It’s going to depend on jobs. If people have jobs they won’t stop paying bills. If people start losing their jobs which I do think is a possibility very soon, then we are in trouble

Agree 100% Vic.

 

[playdeep]

It’s coming mr orange how is the speed car doing

It’s coming mr orange how is the speed car doing

Your posts make H20 Toie's(Dan) drunk posts seem articulate...

 

[Your ad here]

Had a conversation last week with a guy I work for. In the past I've mentioned paying off my house asap. He mentioned with interest rates low just put that $100K payoff towards a down payment on a $400K house and you have an asset that appreciates at the $400K value for only $100K... The rent should cover the cost and the only cost to me is 2 hours a month for paperwork. Or I could just pay off my house and have one asset that appreciates at the $280k value that I would've invested $240K into. I'm wishing I had $100K and houses were pre 2019 cost.

 

[monkeyswrench]

For me I tried to get certs that made me valuable. My cwi is my biggest asset. Scabbing is one thing but in 2008 there was no work union or non union. To me that is the definition of a recession.

There's always work. If you're hungry enough, and are willing to lower your "standards", it's there. I have a friend out your area. Worked for a big tract builder until the last crash. Polo shirt, office and sales deal. When stuff went to hell, he advertised for "cleanups". Bank repo and junk removal. He'd haul stuff to the dump, and list usable items on craigslist. He kept his bills paid, but didn't need to go to the gym anymore. He's a good guy, and a hard worker. He's currently running a successful construction outfit...about 50 employees, and lots of prevailing wage jobs.
The cwi can give you a job, but knowing how to weld can give you some work. Just like having a contractors license may get you a job, but the skills are what get you paid.

 

[BHC Vic]

There's always work. If you're hungry enough, and are willing to lower your "standards", it's there. I have a friend out your area. Worked for a big tract builder until the last crash. Polo shirt, office and sales deal. When stuff went to hell, he advertised for "cleanups". Bank repo and junk removal. He'd haul stuff to the dump, and list usable items on craigslist. He kept his bills paid, but didn't need to go to the gym anymore. He's a good guy, and a hard worker. He's currently running a successful construction outfit...about 50 employees, and lots of prevailing wage jobs.
The cwi can give you a job, but knowing how to weld can give you some work. Just like having a contractors license may get you a job, but the skills are what get you paid.

Last time things got real bad I had to work for my brothers landscaping company. That was brutal. Your hands get a whole different set of blisters than they do from steel stud framing and drywall. My hands have never hurt like that.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

There is nothing worse than getting into your 50s or 60s and not having a free and clear house. I have a few of these people in the family and it sucks. I guess time just flies by and they take out money from it or just made bad decisions. They're lucky Covid didn't start a recession and that they're still making good money so they can pay it off asap.

I'm 35 and what I'm trying to do is pay off the first house asap, double payments if I can, and then buy next house (once covid settles down) so that will be a rental that can have the minimum payment mostly paid by itself. When I retire I want to have at least one house paying me income each month, not the other way around.

Solid plan.

But also think about what that means.. you are done with your house and then go immediately into saving for a down payment on another and are paying for houses that are more expensive with less buying power than you have today.

You could position yourself to get that rental sooner and it now covers your costs as you take an extra 10 years to pay off the primary house. Now you have double the equity building for you. When you retire your net out of pocket is the same ($0) but you’ve grown your net worth substantially over buying RE in series.

 

[monkeyswrench]

Last time things got real bad I had to work for my brothers landscaping company. That was brutal. Your hands get a whole different set of blisters than they do from steel stud framing and drywall. My hands have never hurt like that.

Yep, but you didn't end up on the streets of LA! Last time I was doing roof repairs, sometimes for trade. The slightly twisted way of looking at it is this: When things tank, the masses aren't looking for new cars and full remodels on houses. They'll repair what they have. So, never get rid of your tools! I still have hatchets, coil guns and such...on the shelf with dusty nail bags.

 

[MSum661]

This is what happens when the Fed floods the market with dollars. Insanity

No kidding, right!
If some of us just happened to be there and remember what happened in the 70's then its definitely easy to see what could be coming again soon enough.
We're talking about a nice round of stagflation. Think about it, Debt ratios are waay higher than in the 1970s, insanly loose economic policies (the FED), negative supply issues, $5.00 gas, over priced vehicles of every type, collateralised loan obligations, over bloated housing along with a 10 Yr. Treasury rolling over signaling a possible recession.
Code words for: High inflation alongside a recession - setting the stage for a toxic mix of the 2007-2008 financial crisis and the stagflation of the 1970's.
A sudden loss of confidence and a boxed in FED with nowhere to run could easily cause things to trigger.
Something the 40 and under crowd has never seen or lived through or could possibly believe could happen but the ingredients are certainly now out on the table. jmo.

 

[2Driver]

Let’s get this thread moving.…..

People started off loading their SXS because someone gave them the impression Speed car deliveries are about to start.

 

[Cdog]

There’s like 6 different threads happening in this one thread lol!

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

This is what happens when the Fed floods the market with dollars. Insanity

All this was in play before 2020. Houses, trucks, boats, and other toys were all “too expensive” then, there are hundreds of threads here from 2015 to now as evidence. The events of 2020-2021 certainly accelerated things further.

Supply, demand, and rising MSRP have been driving up prices. When a new 21’boat costs $70k, a used one is gonna cost half. It is just the way it is. Those boats are never gonna be worth $12k again..