4th Is over and everyone is selling their toys??

[4Waters]

We’ve been hearing “18 months until financial armageddon!!!” for the last 6 years here.

18 more months

 

[guest hs]

Shits about to fit the fan

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Yup. It allows 100% of available cash flow to be focused on wealth accumulation. If one has the discipline

Sure... 10, 15, 20 years down the road when the cash flow now has half the buying power has when you started.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I dont disagree with you....beyond a primary residence asset....

I’d argue the same position for the primary residence. I’ve made way more money investing my extra money and building net worth than I ever could have just paying my house off. If I had thrown every dollar I had at my house, I’d have a paid off house in 2020 and that would be it. I would have missed out on the biggest decade of economic growth in our lives.

Instead I used the extra money to amass a portfolio of investments including property that if all rented full time would cover the payment on my primary residence, and the entire portfolio benefited from the economic growth of the last decade.

Again there is no right answer, but blindly following a set of financial principles might make for a comfortable existence, but it can also keep you in the rat race a lot longer.

 

[monkeyswrench]

"Mo' better ways of building wealth & getting rich"
To each their own. I have some coin in a safe, no payments on anything, kids are fed...and don't have to work if I don't want to.
Wealth is what you decide is important, not the money in the bank or your wallet. There are those here that feel the United States is "Too Big To Fail".
Regardless of your goals, getting rich, or merely surviving, step outside of your sphere of influence, and look at the world, not just this country.

The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry...

 

[RodnJen]

Everyone please sell. I’ll do the same thing I did last time.

 

[HTMike]

You walk a little differently when you de lever.

 

[86403]

Oh no, another wealth thread

Back to the original theme....is everyone selling their toys? If so, why?

A. People are playing the market and trying to anticipate the correction
B. Life is returning to normal and other life time commitments (kid sports, work) preclude River Life
C. Boating is a lot more costly than initially anticipated by the new entrants
D. The River Crowd has changed, and not for the good
E. People selling their toys is strictly an illusion
6. All of the above

 

[riverroyal]

Yes

 

[DLC]

There is a huge difference between listing your toys for top dollar and selling your toys! How many toys have actually sold in the past week ?

all you guys with buckets of cash should have bought in 2014, 2015 and 2016 and ridden the wave! At that time….. We were still 18 months out from a total collapse way way back then! And we have only gone up from there!

the government will just spend a few more trillion bucks to fix the NEXT new mess they get us into…. 2022 is a really big mid term for the country!!!

Nothing will happen until then. IF at all.

 

[02HoWaRd26]

In CA newscum is paying the back rent for them. I’m sure other D states will follow.

Just trying to buy those votes.

 

[Havasu blue label]

It’s coming mr orange how is the speed car doing

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

It’s coming mr orange how is the speed car doing

I can’t think of a better vehicle to drive during financial armageddon than a Speed car.

The first full production car built in the factory is done.

 

[COCA COLA COWBOY]

I thought this was a conversation on Toys, not real estate....

 

[hallett21]

I will say the amount of IPOs happening this year has me concerned. Part of it being that few wanted to go public in 2020 and pushed the dates. But the other fair argument is that these businesses are strapped for cash?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[EmpirE231]

Everyone please sell. I’ll do the same thing I did last time.

capatilize?

I hope toy prices get in check soon. Sold the Motorhome a few weeks ago.... would like another one sooner than later.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I thought this was a conversation on Toys, not real estate....

We were due for a RE thread, it’s been 5 days since the last one.

 

[2Driver]

Some are buying I just picked up this putt-around bike, my wife can handle it too.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

There is a huge difference between listing your toys for top dollar and selling your toys! How many toys have actually sold in the past week ?

all you guys with buckets of cash should have bought in 2014, 2015 and 2016 and ridden the wave! At that time….. We were still 18 months out from a total collapse way way back then! And we have only gone up from there!

the government will just spend a few more trillion bucks to fix the NEXT new mess they get us into…. 2022 is a really big mid term for the country!!!

Nothing will happen until then. IF at all.

Exactly. Asking price is not the selling price.

 

[franky]

It is a philosophical debate here. A debt free home carries with it a potential massive opportunity cost. There is no reason to rush to pay off your home when you can make more in nearly every other investment out there.

What inherent benefit does a free and clear home give you aside from not making the payment? Paying off the house leaves money inaccessible, locked into the property. Investing that money instead let’s you dictate how it should be managed and used.

There are no hard and fast rules here, every situation is different.

Agreed. A current rate mortgage is cheap money in the scheme of things. Use the cash to make money in other areas. You will net out better.

 

[JLG614]

Does everyone really think a huge correction is coming in the next 18 months? Yes, there will always be people that live out of their means and are going to have to sell the toys and downsize. But alot of people lived through 08 and learned and from what i can see alot of people have a good size of cash available and are jumping at the bit to buy investment properties. If the market begins to turn and things go down it seems like the investors are going to flood the market and buy everything in site which in turn will keep the prices high? My wife and I are young and would love to buy investment properties and we do have a good amount saved if the market was to turn. But everyone i talk to seems to have a good amount saved as well. The most i see the market dropping is maybe 20% and if rates go up its basically a wash anyways correct? I do think a slow down will happen but I don't think we are going to see anything like 2008

 

[Cdog]

I’m seeing a lot of lightly used 30-40k turbo rzrs for sale all of a sudden. Haha! Those things are ridiculously priced.

I’d like to upgrade my Toyhauler from the Genesis 34gs to the Momentum 398m but it’s a suckers bet to buy right now. I’ll wait till things calm down.

Boats.... seems like we go through this ever real estate boom.

Real estate - Supply & demand. Boomer migration, jobs & political refugees are all in play.

I know for sure there will be a reset eventually. Toys are the first things that trigger the alarms.

 

[BHC Vic]

It’s going to depend on jobs. If people have jobs they won’t stop paying bills. If people start losing their jobs which I do think is a possibility very soon, then we are in trouble

 

[motormonkey]

It’s going to depend on jobs. If people have jobs they won’t stop paying bills. If people start losing their jobs which I do think is a possibility very soon, then we are in trouble

What's the union forecast for work look like? Any big jobs coming or a slow down?

 

[nowski]

I'm getting ready to walk away from my house, I've got errands to run today. My boat is ready to sell but what am I going to replace it with says the wife. When the sky falls who cares, I'll have the whole river to my self...

 

[BHC Vic]

What's the union forecast for work look like? Any big jobs coming or a slow down?

They say we have a ton of work with the infrastructure bull but my apprentices all tell me it’s super slow right now

 

[Looking Glass]

It’s coming mr orange how is the speed car doing

Mr. Orange!!!! That's one of the Names he is known by.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I’m seeing a lot of lightly used 30-40k turbo rzrs for sale all of a sudden. Haha! Those things are ridiculously priced.

I’d like to upgrade my Toyhauler from the Genesis 34gs to the Momentum 398m but it’s a suckers bet to buy right now. I’ll wait till things calm down.

Boats.... seems like we go through this ever real estate boom.

Real estate - Supply & demand. Boomer migration, jobs & political refugees are all in play.

I know for sure there will be a reset eventually. Toys are the first things that trigger the alarms.

It’s summer and people that bought RZRs in the last year just realized it’s too hot to be on a RZR in summer and are selling them.

Boats will be on sale in October - get ready - “Oh knoes, the collapse is here, boats are 4 sale!”

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

It’s going to depend on jobs. If people have jobs they won’t stop paying bills. If people start losing their jobs which I do think is a possibility very soon, then we are in trouble

Same thing I said for the last 5 years. We aren’t losing jobs yet, we are now gaining them back, albeit at a slower pace.

2020-21 was the recession. We’ve never had a government/pandemic induced forced recession and stimulus. We are in uncharted territory.

 

[motormonkey]

They say we have a ton of work with the infrastructure bull but my apprentices all tell me it’s super slow right now

Let us know how things go as I agree it will come down to jobs.

 

[badgas]

I have a 20 box trailer and 2 quads that I will be selling when the dune season comes around. Did I miss the boat on timing ? Who knows ?

Everyone claims to be an expert on timing but it is all just opinions.

 

[GR8WHITE]

When I sell my roll bar boat the new buyer is going to take it in the rear because I am going to take it twice as hard buying that new deck boat I want lol. I highly doubt the price of new builds will go down when the economy starts to dip. Never seen a U-HAUL behind a Hearse LMAO!!!

 

[Cdog]

Does everyone really think a huge correction is coming in the next 18 months? Yes, there will always be people that live out of their means and are going to have to sell the toys and downsize. But alot of people lived through 08 and learned and from what i can see alot of people have a good size of cash available and are jumping at the bit to buy investment properties. If the market begins to turn and things go down it seems like the investors are going to flood the market and buy everything in site which in turn will keep the prices high? My wife and I are young and would love to buy investment properties and we do have a good amount saved if the market was to turn. But everyone i talk to seems to have a good amount saved as well. The most i see the market dropping is maybe 20% and if rates go up its basically a wash anyways correct? I do think a slow down will happen but I don't think we are going to see anything like 2008

Where are you located? Where do you want to invest? I do a lot of 4 plex multi family in AZ. It's a sweet spot & recession proof in a lot of ways. I can show you properties right now where you can cash flow 6%+. You won't find that in CA.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I have a 20 box trailer and 2 quads that I will be selling when the dune season comes around. Did I miss the boat on timing ? Who knows ?

Everyone claims to be an expert on timing but it is all just opinions.

I think you are going to be fine. It might be a little cooler than last year, but there is still low new inventory selling for over MSRP.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Where are you located? Where do you want to invest? I do a lot of 4 plex multi family in AZ. It's a sweet spot & recession proof in a lot of ways. I can show you properties right now where you can cash flow 6%+. You won't find that in CA.

Sorry not interested. I have to pay off the 2% mortgage on my primary residence as fast as possible before I invest in something that could net me a 6% gain on that same money.

 

[RodnJen]

capatilize?

I hope toy prices get in check soon. Sold the Motorhome a few weeks ago.... would like another one sooner than later.

Yes, hunker down and move when it makes sense. There is nothing I need but a few things I want.

 

[HB2Havasu]

Whats the deal, everyone seems to be selling their shit today?

I have seen more boats, off road toys and trucks go up for sale online and on various IG pages than I have seen in the previous months. People are trying to get top dollar? People are getting nervous or are people over extended???

Yes

 

[CLdrinker]

Sold my Toyhauler a couple weeks ago.
Looking for another.
If anyone has a nice
Genesis / Vortex 27
Stryker 2613.
Torque 26
Fuel 265
I’m your Huckleberry.

 

[2Driver]

9,000,000 job openings and roughly 9,000,000 unemployed.

Supply chain and businesses are struggling to return to normal, but it’s not going to happen until people get off their free-ride asses and return to work, and I mean like show up and fucking do a decent job at it too.

Until governemnt gets out of the equation the economy will be severely unbalanced and trying to make sense of prices and availability will be futile.

 

[Cdog]

It's crazy watching the used market on stuff inflate based on what the new market is demanding. In terms of toys and vehicles. We saw some of this with the cash for clunkers program by the kenyan.

We're experiencing the negative affects of supply chain manufacturing currently. Outsourcing has exposed our weakness in both product availability and the lack of financial discipline in average Americans. Crazy to me watching people fight to bid and over pay for something not worth it based on lack of availability but that's where we're at. I think moving forward companies like Ford with the chip issue will be strategically limiting production to keep supply and demand in their favor. Fools and their money, easily departed.

I don't put Real estate into this same bucket since everyone Needs a place to live. Generally an asset, equity and the possibility of income producing.

For the next 20 years it will all be about how and where the boomers spend their money and who is making what they want and who can buy the assets they're selling. And Jobs for those who would buy the boomers assets.

 

[McKay]

Sorry not interested. I have to pay off the 2% mortgage on my primary residence as fast as possible before I invest in something that could net me a 6% gain on that same money.

Post 48 says you have no debt. Now this post says you need to pay off your mortgage as fast as possible? Then you are arguing in this thread that its not wise to pay off a low cost mortgage because of the opportunity loss of using that capital for other investments?

You have me confused. haha. I'm just busting your balls.

For us having a mortgage paid off and being debt free has been the best piece of mind for myself and my wife. Everything can go to shit and we will still be fine. But I fully understand that argument of the opportunity loss and that just is not worth if for us. House was paid off right at 10 years ago and I'm only 41, so we have been able to plow 70-80ish% of our after tax earnings into investments for the past decade. This has also allowed me to go part time 3.5 years ago and we love the options that have given us.

 

[BHC Vic]

Sorry not interested. I have to pay off the 2% mortgage on my primary residence as fast as possible before I invest in something that could net me a 6% gain on that same money.

Like I tell my buddy max, it’s all good till it’s not. In our trade getting laid off is pretty much a guarantee. So for max when he has renters, things are fine. When the renters don’t pay things get tight, but max can cover it. If max gets laid off, it all falls apart. I’m sure your situation is different, but it’s why I would rather pay my house off first before taking on more debt. Every situation will be different. Max is already noticing things changing and he’s quickly trying to sell his Carson house because he’s getting nervous.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Like I tell my buddy max, it’s all good till it’s not. In our trade getting laid off is pretty much a guarantee. So for max when he has renters, things are fine. When the renters don’t pay things get tight, but max can cover it. If max gets laid off, it all falls apart. I’m sure your situation is different, but it’s why I would rather pay my house off first before taking on more debt. Every situation will be different. Max is already noticing things changing and he’s quickly trying to sell his Carson house because he’s getting nervous.

You just need sufficient reserves to cover yourself in the event of an emergency. If you are laid off and the house of cards falls a month later, yea you were over extended.

You’d want your emergency money fund filled before you go out and invest, and not touch it for the investment. And having all your money tied up in RE getting started is probably a bad idea. You can’t get money easily that is tied up in equity, as I know you are aware. Having money in markets or other investments that you could pull out quickly if needed might be a better investment

If you had 10 doors or more and were making real money, That is probably your livelihood at that point, so having all your money in RE is a different conversation.

Paying off your house is not a bad idea ever, you just have to have an eye on the bigger picture for yourself. As you said, every situation is different.

My complete shit show emergency plan is move into my house in Havasu. If CA fell into the ocean I wouldn’t be able to rent my house out there, but if that happened I wouldn’t continue paying the mortgage either lol. But if I was able to rent my house there, it would net me some extra income to live.

 

[Doc]

What LOF is saying is simple, paying off a mortgage at 2-3% to some is considered border line "free money". While it's not look at it this way, in a sense if you have a home that's worth 900k you owe lets say 300k now if you had 100k to invest why pay it toward your mortgage that is at 2-3% when you could invest that 100k and possibly make 6% on it.

I understand other people's views having zero debt then taking that money you would be normally paying on a primary mortgage and either saving it or investing it and that's great. All this really depends on your position, i.e. how much is home worth vs money owed and obviously income/job security. Home mortgage has some advantages for personal taxes also which some people forget or it doesn't matter to them.

Investing in other properties is great and awesome long term I just wouldn't do it in California!! I think the key is finding the best property management team if you have properties out of state.

 

[CLdrinker]

Like I tell my buddy max, it’s all good till it’s not. In our trade getting laid off is pretty much a guarantee. So for max when he has renters, things are fine. When the renters don’t pay things get tight, but max can cover it. If max gets laid off, it all falls apart. I’m sure your situation is different, but it’s why I would rather pay my house off first before taking on more debt. Every situation will be different. Max is already noticing things changing and he’s quickly trying to sell his Carson house because he’s getting nervous.

Sounds exactly like me in 2014.
We bought this house and wanted to keep my house as a rental.
We could pay both if the renter did not pay. But it would be a little tight but definitely doable.
But if I lost my job we would probably loose 1 of the houses.

Well tenant didn’t pay first 3 months lol. That was our hint to sell it, which we did. It’s now worth 100k more than I sold it for.
We just weren’t in the position to roll the dice. Now we are.

 

[monkeyswrench]

Like I tell my buddy max, it’s all good till it’s not. In our trade getting laid off is pretty much a guarantee. So for max when he has renters, things are fine. When the renters don’t pay things get tight, but max can cover it. If max gets laid off, it all falls apart. I’m sure your situation is different, but it’s why I would rather pay my house off first before taking on more debt. Every situation will be different. Max is already noticing things changing and he’s quickly trying to sell his Carson house because he’s getting nervous.

Been there, done that. Everyone has a different outlook. Risk vs reward. I don't think there is any one right answer for everyone. It depends on variables. How you make your primary income dictates quite a bit. Blue collar folks may have a specific skillet, but may dabble in trades other than their primary. It helps to cushion the blow. I know as a union guy, your peeps aren't supposed to "scab"...but kids have to eat and bills have to be paid.

In your case, if it all goes to shit, you've learned some different aspects of construction. All tools in the tool box to get used if need be.

 

[Bigbore500r]

River Dave Ramsey's Place

 

[BHC Vic]

Been there, done that. Everyone has a different outlook. Risk vs reward. I don't think there is any one right answer for everyone. It depends on variables. How you make your primary income dictates quite a bit. Blue collar folks may have a specific skillet, but may dabble in trades other than their primary. It helps to cushion the blow. I know as a union guy, your peeps aren't supposed to "scab"...but kids have to eat and bills have to be paid.

In your case, if it all goes to shit, you've learned some different aspects of construction. All tools in the tool box to get used if need be.

For me I tried to get certs that made me valuable. My cwi is my biggest asset. Scabbing is one thing but in 2008 there was no work union or non union. To me that is the definition of a recession.

 

[rebelmark75]

Couple of points:

1. There will be no more lockdowns. Citizens were fooled once, will not be fooled again.
2. People bought boats and off road toys because they could not travel. It was supply vs demand that drove prices. I believe like others that people will realize the work involved to boat and off road and sell. Hell, I love it and I want to sell sometimes because its so much work and money!
3. This last 2 years made it clear that renting property is a risk based on our current government. Until election integrity is returned and we can elect conservatives to the White House, we are in a risky place. In many places, the landlord has way fewer rights than the renter.

 

[CLdrinker]

River Dave Ramsey's Place

View attachment 1022784

That guy has good advice. But has zero work life balance.
Everyone of us is doing it wrong according to him.