2025 Stock Market Thread

[shintoooo]

Not sure why Costco is up today because they will get hit hard with the tariffs because they can't pass everything to the consumer. Their margins will shrink in my opinion. It will be a non-issue once the tariff issue is settled but short term I think it gets closer to $900. I just picked up some May 2 $900 puts. 10 of them. I don't see it staying up.

 

[JDKRXW]

Not sure why Costco is up today because they will get hit hard with the tariffs because they can't pass everything to the consumer.

Trust.
I think Costco will be fair and not look to gouge customers when passing increased costs.
I can see big opportunities to fleece customers in the near future.

 

[185EZ]

Why would Marriott be so low?
It was down over $18 today. 52 week high of $307 and now $226.
I have a lot of shares after working for them for 22 years.
Probably bought some shares for $20 years ago

 

[530RL]

Why would Marriott be so low?
It was down over $18 today. 52 week high of $307 and now $226.
I have a lot of shares after working for them for 22 years.
Probably bought some shares for $20 years ago

The theory is that people will have less discretionary income left over after price increases for leisure travel and businesses will have less money for business travel as they have to tighten their belts.

 

[Runs2rch]

The theory is that people will have less discretionary income left over after price increases for leisure travel and businesses will have less money for business travel as they have to tighten their belts.

They already have less. Check out Vegas strip properties. Quiet layoffs and cutting back hours. Hmmmm wonder why.

 

[PaPaG]

WOW did I get lucky THANKFULLY, I rode NMAX with a great profit early on, left tons on the table when it skyrocketed but happy with what I made, then when it dropped I said to myself let me see if it bounces so I bought only 100 shares at 160, what a mistake UNTIL today I saw it doing a bounce back around 42 this am, I bought 1k just for the hell of it thinking if I can gain back 1/2 my lost money I would be happy. Got my average to 66.59. Thought that may be more achievable than 160 lol. Put a sell order in for 70, went to run an errand and just checked and it sold, made all my money back plus $3751.00 TALK ABOUT LUCKY, NO SKILL involved that is for sure just a guess. This has to be a gamestop reddit type pump and dump cycle no way its valuations justify the prices.

 

[shintoooo]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1907862660487553485

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1907862962313838664

 

[Xring01]

WOW did I get lucky THANKFULLY, I rode NMAX with a great profit early on, left tons on the table when it skyrocketed but happy with what I made, then when it dropped I said to myself let me see if it bounces so I bought only 100 shares at 160, what a mistake UNTIL today I saw it doing a bounce back around 42 this am, I bought 1k just for the hell of it thinking if I can gain back 1/2 my lost money I would be happy. Got my average to 66.59. Thought that may be more achievable than 160 lol. Put a sell order in for 70, went to run an errand and just checked and it sold, made all my money back plus $3751.00 TALK ABOUT LUCKY, NO SKILL involved that is for sure just a guess. This has to be a gamestop reddit type pump and dump cycle no way its valuations justify the prices.

Due to all of the tariff market turmoil, All the day traders, are lazer focused on 1 maybe 2 stocks…
So it happens.

Congrats… but @BLDrinker is going to be butt hurt again, if you didnt give him a shout out before… HAHHAHAHA

 

[PaPaG]

Due to all of the tariff market turmoil, All the day traders, are lazer focused on 1 maybe 2 stocks…
So it happens.

Congrats… but @BLDrinker is going to be butt hurt again, if you didnt give him a shout out before… HAHHAHAHA

Thanks, Hopefully NO ONE here made anywhere close to the stupidest purchase of my life like I did at 160. Took a chance this am to average down, thankfully it worked out.

 

[PaPaG]

INTC tentative deal with TSM to make chips in the US may end up great news for NVDA, if it happens NVDA can split their gaming and AI chip manufacturers giving INTC the gaming sector freeing up TSM to catch up and make all the AI chips needed. That means NVDA can sell even more of both chips. This may also save INTCs stock price. JMO.

 

[Xring01]

HA… Cancelled the prior SOFI order this am that didnt get filled,

But I got a SOFI Order filled…
33% of a position for $10.65… yeah baby…

I down overall on this position… (obviously) bought 3 - 33% positions… and I will be watching it closely.

This is a riskier play for me… But the upside potential is real… like 70% or more… Which is why I have this risk tolerance….

Wish me luck mfkrs…. I am gonna need on this position.

STONKS ROCK… GO DOGE… TO THE MOON MFKRS….

 

[Xring01]

INTC tentative deal with TSM to make chips in the US may end up great news for NVDA, if it happens NVDA can split their gaming and AI chip manufacturers giving INTC the gaming sector freeing up TSM to catch up and make all the AI chips needed. That means NVDA can sell even more of both chips. This may also save INTCs stock price. JMO.

The TSMC facility is on the outskirts of Phoenix.. .The building is over a mile long, from what I heard…

Its ridiculously big… ITs been under construction for awhile now.

The good news for me… Utility’s have to supply power to that building with LOTS OF ENERGY, which is where I come in.

 

[530RL]

Another perspective from my Inbox.

Below is a market update from Morgan Stanley Wealth Management CIO Lisa Shalett:

Taken at face value, the announced tariffs increase the effective rate on imports from ~3% today to 17-22% depending on whether tariffs are cumulative on previously announced actions on steel, autos, etc. This is the highest in history and exceeds the Smoot-Hawley tariffs of the 1930s. If we knew that announced policy on tariffs was the end game, we would be selling equities (down to maximum investment policy allowed underweights) and calling for a bear market with limited help from the Fed, who would be battling inflation that likely retraces to ~5%. The problem is that there is time (until April 9) to negotiate before implementation, and it appears that Trump is bent on bilateral negotiations where objectives are unclear. Are we trying to: 1) Truly generate US revenues to fund tax cuts? 2) Incent onshoring of manufacturing facilities, which will take months if not years to take effect or 3). Are we trying to open global markets for US exporters and cure the trade deficit that way? Not sure the Trump administration is clear…again “everything, everywhere, all at once…chaos.”

The Trump administration has taken a maximalist approach to reciprocal tariffs, stacking them on top of already announced levies in a significant negative surprise to markets, which risks lowering GDP growth and raising the odds of both higher inflation and recession. After MS & Co. cut its growth estimates on the uncertainty shock to 1.5% in 2025 from 2.2%, we see the weight of these tariffs—if truly implemented—as pushing into negative growth territory while adding as much as 1.0-2.5 percentage points to inflation. From our perch, the odds of a US recession are now up to 40% from 25%, and stagflation is up to 30% while the base case “soft-landing” is down to 30%. Critically, overnight, the MS & Co. econ team removed their call for a June Fed cut believing that Powell will be boxed in by inflation. We think this may be too severe and knee-jerk but understand the spirit and acknowledge that short of recession and the US labor market falling out of bed, the Fed put is on the sidelines.

BUT because odds are at least 50/50 that things will change over the course of the next 90 days, we are apt to take more of a wait and see approach…avoiding knee-jerk panic and adding excess reserves to ultrashort and short fixed income while withholding rebalancing flows to global equities with the exception of Japan, which may benefit from strong inflows to the defensive yen. Now is a good time to add to private investments amidst the market turbulence as well as adding to real assets as an inflation hedge. The fact that the S&P 500 5500 held in the futures market overnight is significant and a hopeful sign that investors are still assuming that this morning is the WORST-CASE scenario and it will quickly be walked back with Israel, India, the EU and Brazil already suggesting bilateral talks as examples. TikTok negotiations with China are also upcoming as is the Xi/Trump summit in June.

We need to remember that US economic exposure to net trade is ~14%. International trade is a big deal for the S&P 500 profits: 46% of total from overseas, 52% for tech sector and Mag 7, but overall, much lower for other sectors like financials, intermediate industrials, health care, media/entertainment.

We need to be patient and vigilant as headlines will continue to evolve quickly, and we will need to avoid emotionally reacting against our plan/strategic asset allocation goals.

 

[Orange Juice]

Just paid $20 for a 1 pound container of coffee. I grabbed 3, just in case the brand can’t handle a tariff induce recession.

I’m glad I acquired a taste for home cooking and leftovers early in life.

Now if I could only talk my wife into backyard chickens, life would be complete

 

[Xring01]

Another perspective from my Inbox.

Below is a market update from Morgan Stanley Wealth Management CIO Lisa Shalett:

Taken at face value, the announced tariffs increase the effective rate on imports from ~3% today to 17-22% depending on whether tariffs are cumulative on previously announced actions on steel, autos, etc. This is the highest in history and exceeds the Smoot-Hawley tariffs of the 1930s. If we knew that announced policy on tariffs was the end game, we would be selling equities (down to maximum investment policy allowed underweights) and calling for a bear market with limited help from the Fed, who would be battling inflation that likely retraces to ~5%. The problem is that there is time (until April 9) to negotiate before implementation, and it appears that Trump is bent on bilateral negotiations where objectives are unclear. Are we trying to: 1) Truly generate US revenues to fund tax cuts? 2) Incent onshoring of manufacturing facilities, which will take months if not years to take effect or 3). Are we trying to open global markets for US exporters and cure the trade deficit that way? Not sure the Trump administration is clear…again “everything, everywhere, all at once…chaos.”

The Trump administration has taken a maximalist approach to reciprocal tariffs, stacking them on top of already announced levies in a significant negative surprise to markets, which risks lowering GDP growth and raising the odds of both higher inflation and recession. After MS & Co. cut its growth estimates on the uncertainty shock to 1.5% in 2025 from 2.2%, we see the weight of these tariffs—if truly implemented—as pushing into negative growth territory while adding as much as 1.0-2.5 percentage points to inflation. From our perch, the odds of a US recession are now up to 40% from 25%, and stagflation is up to 30% while the base case “soft-landing” is down to 30%. Critically, overnight, the MS & Co. econ team removed their call for a June Fed cut believing that Powell will be boxed in by inflation. We think this may be too severe and knee-jerk but understand the spirit and acknowledge that short of recession and the US labor market falling out of bed, the Fed put is on the sidelines.

BUT because odds are at least 50/50 that things will change over the course of the next 90 days, we are apt to take more of a wait and see approach…avoiding knee-jerk panic and adding excess reserves to ultrashort and short fixed income while withholding rebalancing flows to global equities with the exception of Japan, which may benefit from strong inflows to the defensive yen. Now is a good time to add to private investments amidst the market turbulence as well as adding to real assets as an inflation hedge. The fact that the S&P 500 5500 held in the futures market overnight is significant and a hopeful sign that investors are still assuming that this morning is the WORST-CASE scenario and it will quickly be walked back with Israel, India, the EU and Brazil already suggesting bilateral talks as examples. TikTok negotiations with China are also upcoming as is the Xi/Trump summit in June.

We need to remember that US economic exposure to net trade is ~14%. International trade is a big deal for the S&P 500 profits: 46% of total from overseas, 52% for tech sector and Mag 7, but overall, much lower for other sectors like financials, intermediate industrials, health care, media/entertainment.

We need to be patient and vigilant as headlines will continue to evolve quickly, and we will need to avoid emotionally reacting against our plan/strategic asset allocation goals.

Well Lisa is spewing BULLSHIT…. Most likely a libtard.
Thats what I think…

My opinion on Trumps tariffs..
Countrys either negotiate fair trade tariffs, or the US Customers, will shift their buying decisions to countries that have a more economical price….

As an example, China total cost in the US is $100 for a black box, but Indonesian is supplying the same black box for $88, but Korea does it for $80 for the same black box built to the same standards and specs. The US buyer will buy Korean Black box.

In the rare instances of “sole source country”, of gold boxs, and no else can provide a gold box but that one country, then the costs go up…But what products/minerals/services are truly “sole source”…

3 weeks later… Guatemala negotiates a lower tariffs and supplies black boxs to to the US for $75… US Consumer shifts, starts buying them.

See, this forces all countries to compete for our business… they not only have to compete against each other, or worry about someone building the factory in the US… Which will drive costs down in the long term. Thats truly the genius of this policy…

The problem that most people dont realize, is that China has been building lots of factories in Mexico over the last 5-8 years, to take advantage of NAFTA trade agreement. Great for Mexico, great for China, but the new tariffs dont necessarily stop that for the most part.

Edited: Which leads me to believe Trump will re negotiate NAFTA… Owe the LIBTARDS are gonna hate that one… I will bet you 2 bourbons that will be topic of discussion in the next 6 months…

I may be better at figureing out global economics than stock investing. DOPE…

 

[530RL]

Well Lisa is spewing BULLSHIT…. Most likely a libtard.
Thats what I think…

My opinion on Trumps tariffs..
Countrys either negotiate fair trade tariffs, or the US Customers, will shift their buying decisions to countries that have a more economical price….

As an example, China total cost in the US is $100 for a black box, but Indonesian is supplying the same black box for $88, but Korea does it for $80 for the same black box built to the same standards and specs. The US buyer will buy Korean Black box.

In the rare instances of “sole source country”, of gold boxs, and no else can provide a gold box but that one country, then the costs go up…But what products/minerals/services are truly “sole source”…

3 weeks later… Guatemala negotiates a lower tariffs and supplies black boxs to to the US for $75… US Consumer shifts, starts buying them.

The problem that most people dont realize, is that China has been building lots of factories in Mexico over the last 5-8 years, to take advantage of NAFTA trade agreement. Great for Mexico, great for China, but the new tariffs dont necessarily stop that for the most part.

Don’t shoot the messenger, just posting the opinion of another expert like yourself for others to read that might not have access to it.

Personally, I place my bets, but understand it might be right and it might be wrong. That CFA charter didn’t help me a bit other than to waste three saturdays over three years and any moron can pass those tests.

 

[702sandman]

Well Lisa is spewing BULLSHIT…. Most likely a libtard.
Thats what I think…

My opinion on Trumps tariffs..
Countrys either negotiate fair trade tariffs, or the US Customers, will shift their buying decisions to countries that have a more economical price….

As an example, China total cost in the US is $100 for a black box, but Indonesian is supplying the same black box for $88, but Korea does it for $80 for the same black box built to the same standards and specs. The US buyer will buy Korean Black box.

In the rare instances of “sole source country”, of gold boxs, and no else can provide a gold box but that one country, then the costs go up…But what products/minerals/services are truly “sole source”…

3 weeks later… Guatemala negotiates a lower tariffs and supplies black boxs to to the US for $75… US Consumer shifts, starts buying them.

See, this forces all countries to compete for our business… they not only have to compete against each other, or worry about someone building the factory in the US… Which will drive costs down in the long term. Thats truly the genius of this policy…

The problem that most people dont realize, is that China has been building lots of factories in Mexico over the last 5-8 years, to take advantage of NAFTA trade agreement. Great for Mexico, great for China, but the new tariffs dont necessarily stop that for the most part.

A LOT of companies have moved to Mexico to get around the costs of tariffs like Polaris and Can Am just to name 2 that have moved recently. Shit was supposed to go down not up lol. Hopefully this will be short lived. When i go out to dinner in the last few weeks there is literally no one in the restaurant, and that’s before these tarrifs.

 

[Xring01]

Don’t shoot the messenger, just posting the opinion of another expert like yourself for others to read that might not have access to it.

Personally, I place my bets, but understand it might be right and it might be wrong. That CFA charter didn’t help me a bit other than to waste three saturdays over three years and any moron can pass those tests.

Thats why I specifically state “Lisa” in my post…
I was not shooting the messenger at all, hopefully my sarcasm and messing around came thru in what I wrote. That was my intentions.

I truly value everyones opinion on this thread. Because different opinions, make me think about things a bit deeper, increasing my odds of figuring shit out.

 

[shintoooo]

Holy Drop Batman. Restoration Hardware dropped $100/share or 40% today.

I’ve followed this stock for a long time. It always goes back up within a year. I think once all this tariff crap is settled, this will be a good buy.

Here’s a three month chart

 

[Cole Trickle]

Holy Drop Batman. Restoration Hardware dropped $100/share or 40% today.

I’ve followed this stock for a long time. It always goes back up within a year. I think once all this tariff crap is settled, this will be a good buy.

View attachment 1492605


Here’s a three month chart

View attachment 1492606

My entire portfolio looks like that over the past 3 months...lol

Today was super fun...

 

[boatnam2]

Wow pretty crazy day, picked up some things at end of session, but think tomorrow may be another" buy the dip day"

 

[~JM~]

 

[Xring01]

Wow pretty crazy day, picked up some things at end of session, but think tomorrow may be another" buy the dip day"

But I am just about out of $$$

 

[185EZ]

OUCH!
View attachment 1492428

Little OUCH!

 

[shintoooo]

I think we go up a little tomorrow morning and then back down for round two. Nobody wants to hold into the weekend.

 

[coolchange]

You’re welcome.

$MFKR

Thank you! I just bought 380,000 shares
For $87

 

[coolchange]

I think we go up a little tomorrow morning and then back down for round two. Nobody wants to hold into the weekend.

I was just thinking that on the way home could there be a quick pump Friday? no way I’m picking up any of these and holding over the weekend.

 

[adam909]

This will get interesting. These tarriffs are the biggest political move in my life time and interested to see how it pans out. Do other countries cave in to trump or do they take a stand and we get a trade war happening? No matter what, these tarriffs will affect the people and the markets will suffer. How much? Who knows. Are we seeing this drop because of the tariffs? Or we seeing the market starting to price in for a recession due to the tariffs? I still think we are going to see more down side to come.

 

[Havasu blue label]

It will be a roller coaster for bit .

 

[bonesfab]

I don’t have a dog in this fight, my portfolio has wheels on it. But this is more than tariff induced. The market is 6-8 years past due for a correction. What Is there in the market that can support the gains that have been produced over the past 6-8 years? There is some serious pain coming to the market and life in general. Not trying to be a Debbie downer, just a realist, And if you don’t think the people in charge won’t crash this shit under Trumps watch to make him look bad wont or can’t do it, just wait and see. the band aid should have been yanked off this shit show years ago.

 

[DRYHEAT]

I don’t have a dog in this fight, my portfolio has wheels on it. But this is more than tariff induced. The market is 6-8 years past due for a correction. What Is there in the market that can support the gains that have been produced over the past 6-8 years? There is some serious pain coming to the market and life in general. Not trying to be a Debbie downer, just a realist, And if you don’t think the people in charge won’t crash this shit under Trumps watch to make him look bad wont or can’t do it, just wait and see. the band aid should have been yanked off this shit show years ago.

Yep, they’re just using the tariffs as a reason. A bunch of New York liberals running the show on Wall Street.

 

[hallett21]

I think we go up a little tomorrow morning and then back down for round two. Nobody wants to hold into the weekend.

Grabbing my brass balls and getting calls tomorrow at close

 

[shintoooo]

Grabbing my brass balls and getting calls tomorrow at close

Careful. It’s Friday and options expiration day. Go far out, at least May 2. It’s gonna be a wild day tomorrow.

 

[~JM~]

 

[Xring01]

I don’t have a dog in this fight, my portfolio has wheels on it. But this is more than tariff induced. The market is 6-8 years past due for a correction. What Is there in the market that can support the gains that have been produced over the past 6-8 years? There is some serious pain coming to the market and life in general. Not trying to be a Debbie downer, just a realist, And if you don’t think the people in charge won’t crash this shit under Trumps watch to make him look bad wont or can’t do it, just wait and see. the band aid should have been yanked off this shit show years ago.

Short term.. yeah I agree..
Long term… I totally disagree..

The US is set up as a Capitalism Market. Trumps tariff’s, forces that Capitalism mindset on all countries who want our business.
At the end of the day, Capitalism should shine.

 

[hallett21]

Careful. It’s Friday and options expiration day. Go far out, at least May 2. It’s gonna be a wild day tomorrow.

lol I meant expiration for next week. Trying to grab a quick Monday pop.

If I wanna feel something I’ll play a 0dte.

 

[boatnam2]

Looking like the sledgehammer is going to swing again today, "buy the dip"!

 

[BHC Vic]

A LOT of companies have moved to Mexico to get around the costs of tariffs like Polaris and Can Am just to name 2 that have moved recently. Shit was supposed to go down not up lol. Hopefully this will be short lived. When i go out to dinner in the last few weeks there is literally no one in the restaurant, and that’s before these tarrifs.

I went out to dinner in Camarillo every night this week. Adolfo grill packed, wood ranch packed. I was surprised but people spending plenty of money. Just me alone the check was almost 90 bucks w tip.

 

[JFMFG]

Today is going to be a blood bath.

 

[DILLIGAF]

oh well.....the games continue with China upping the tariff war......

Going to be a tough day....

This AM opened my portfolio up and saw that my fixed income holdings paid off last night to lessen my losses in stocks yesterday.

All this is necessary to go thru to right the ship after decades of unfair penalties to the USA against the world.

I am with Trump on this. It is a difficult job but the right guy is in there to handle the heat.

Now eliminate the IRS, paying taxes and go to tariffs to fund the government.

Might need to put the helmet on along with the seatbelt for a while peeps......

 

[JFMFG]

oh well.....the games continue with China upping the tariff war......

Going to be a tough day....

This AM opened my portfolio up and saw that my fixed income holdings paid off last night to lessen my losses in stocks yesterday.

All this is necessary to go thru to right the ship after decades of unfair penalties to the USA against the world.

I am with Trump on this. It is a difficult job but the right guy is in there to handle the heat.

Now eliminate the IRS, paying taxes and go to tariffs to fund the government.

Might need to put the helmet on along with the seatbelt for a while peeps......

So are you saying we should launch and only boat to the channel next weekend.

 

[DILLIGAF]

So are you saying we should launch and only boat to the channel next weekend.

I went out and bought some goats yesterday.....lol

 

[DILLIGAF]

Well.....these don't seem to be hurting today. NASDQ leaders in pre-market

 

[PaPaG]

And SO FAR SO GOOD with great prices, picked up a lot of shares from a few different stocks.

 

[PaPaG]

oh well.....the games continue with China upping the tariff war......

Going to be a tough day....

This AM opened my portfolio up and saw that my fixed income holdings paid off last night to lessen my losses in stocks yesterday.

All this is necessary to go thru to right the ship after decades of unfair penalties to the USA against the world.

I am with Trump on this. It is a difficult job but the right guy is in there to handle the heat.

Now eliminate the IRS, paying taxes and go to tariffs to fund the government.

Might need to put the helmet on along with the seatbelt for a while peeps......

It will all be worth it, like many of the corrections, if you just sat still or bought during the dips 90% of investors ended up with a larger portfolio that precorrection. Patience is key.

 

[PaPaG]

Holy Drop Batman. Restoration Hardware dropped $100/share or 40% today.

I’ve followed this stock for a long time. It always goes back up within a year. I think once all this tariff crap is settled, this will be a good buy.

View attachment 1492605


Here’s a three month chart

View attachment 1492606

They have had such a solid track record with their stock price for almost 3 years, if I was into this sector and if my investment goals were long term I would be a buyer if it drops a little more and wait it out. JMO.

 

[shintoooo]

Not sure why Costco is up today because they will get hit hard with the tariffs because they can't pass everything to the consumer. Their margins will shrink in my opinion. It will be a non-issue once the tariff issue is settled but short term I think it gets closer to $900. I just picked up some May 2 $900 puts. 10 of them. I don't see it staying up.

These puts are gonna pay. Closing them out.

 

[~JM~]

Damned e-mail alerts!

 

[CLdrinker]

Well I think I’m gonna pull some money out of savings and start dollar cost averaging in.

I’m thinking VUG

What are some good long term buys?

 

[Outdrive1]

Welcome to Black Friday.