I did... I said one percent instead of 3 percent.. I believe the number will be lower in the U.S. but much higher in India and Africa... The average may be higher than 1 percent. Soon we will know. There is no cure for this virus. I believe Bill Gates commissioned a study model a few months...
Let's say the mortality rate goes to 1 percent.. of 5 billion people? That will affect your stock portfolio for sure.. Hopefully after a vaccine is created they can put the brakes on this.. that will take 12-18 months..
I guess the question that you need to ask yourself is when? I still think the market has a large drop in it. This virus will likely grow and possibly kill many millions.. no travel, no shopping, schools closed, no concerts, no restaurants.. pretty much stopping all commerce..
I am not going...
Now they are building another one that will have 500 more beds than the first one.. just doesn't seem normal to shut down entire cities.. businesses. schools...casinos.. transportation... something is not right in Mayberry..
60 million people on lockdown... The entire state of California is what 39 million? I don't know if the world realizes what a drastic measure the Chinese government has taken. All schools closed.. businesses.. one designated person every other day allowed to leave their house for food...
Deaths are likely under reported. Go to twitter and search coronavirus or corinavirus China... No one really knows a mortality rate without having accurate numbers.. even me...
But ask yourself, would you shut down entire cities of 11 million, 9 million etc. schools, businesses, airlines etc...
My prediction.. and I have been wrong before.. market down big tomorrow.. and huge on Friday.. No one will want to hold on over the weekend. This is following the charts.. looking very bad...
They could get control of the virus and if recent history is repeated... they will. In the case of Sars and Mers its impact was overexaggerated. Or... this could continue for then next year and cause major problems all over the world. There are many unknowns. I think the market will be very...
It is the flu.. but very potentially becoming a pandemic. 56 million quarantined... borders shut.. 2.5 % mortality.. growing exponentially... No way it can impact the market? Why did the market go down today? Emotion impacts the market and confidence.. or lack of it.. uncertainty... travel...
I sold off all equities last week. Hopefully this virus doesn't follow the models or we are all in trouble. So far it looks bad. The market should be pretty rocked by the end of this week.