Want to ask this of the broad range of people here, what do you see?

[sintax]

If ou can’t pay a student loan off how can you pay a house off? First thing my wife and i did was pay off her loans. Then we got the house. Then the car

quit being logical... thats not how the world works anymore.

They all just want to stall payments on those student debts until Bernie Sanders comes and wipes away their debt.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I hope the housing market doesn’t crash but I know my industry will have a major slow down. Shedding thousands of members just like last time

When the economy starts loosing hundreds of thousands of jobs, be worried about a crash. A 10 even 20 point adjustment is not a crash.

I've said this before.. most people wont walk away from their house because they have no cheaper housing option. Rents are very expensive now. They are not going to default on their house and find a house down the street with cheaper rent saving them thousands a month.

People left their houses because they had nothing down and the payments got raised on them. There was no reason for them to stay.

 

[2Driver]

The center console is the new Magic deck boat

The G- Wagon is the new H2

LOL Im not sure what the Yeti replaces from 2007

 

[RCDave]

Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

The economic fundamentals, while not as distorted as 2007-2008, are not as healthy as they seem.

 

[TITTIES AND BEER]

Cedar city and St George are crazy with building , I looked at a superintendent position 55-60 k no thanks

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

The center console is the new Magic deck boat

The G- Wagon is the new H2

LOL Im not sure what the Yeti replaces from 2007

An igloo.

I have not seen any CCs replacing Magics @ Havasu. You can however buy a 12 year old Magic for $10K less than it cost new. They should re brand them to Honda deck boats with that kind of resale value

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

The economic fundamentals, while not as distorted as 2007-2008, are not as healthy as they seem.

This. Have your emergency account ready and funded. Pay down debt and decrease your monthly run rate.

 

[RCDave]

This. Have your emergency account ready and funded. Pay down debt and decrease your monthly run rate.

Buy low, sell high! Be ready to buy the downturns, if it makes sense.

 

[Kailuaboy89]

I see both sides, and I have seen the slow down but that is also stated as "normal" I suppose this time of year, Lately I have heard and seen signs that something is going to happen, just a matter of when, and as far as wealthy folks go, it seems they have more money than they know what to do with, and are indeed buying lavish homes, cars, boats, and toys like its going out of style. I myself have starved for most of this year, but the 3 years prior to this were the best I had seen since 06-07' but like I say this year has been pretty crummy. most of my customers and contractors are still grinding me down, and trying to be cheap, and for the little guys like myself, it has been a struggle, and believe it when I say I don't do shitty work, I always deliver. I only hope it gets better, and maybe 2019 will look a bit stronger, or I find a gig that pays well and can keep me busy. I also have a lot of friends and neighbors that are selling their homes here in SoCal and moving out of state due to economic struggles, and lack of work, and the high cost of living here in Cali....

 

[spectra3279]

What i see. I make 95k ayear. Just me. There is no way I can afford to buy a house here in kommifornia. Most of the people that I know buying houses, are people who already owned a house and are moving to a larger one or a better area. The difference in price is about 200k. That can be afforded. But I know of absolutely nobody buying for the first time.

Hell with my pay here in kommifornia I should qualify for poverty

Sent from my SM-G900T using Tapatalk

 

[grumpy88]

When the economy starts loosing hundreds of thousands of jobs, be worried about a crash. A 10 even 20 point adjustment is not a crash.

I've said this before.. most people wont walk away from their house because they have no cheaper housing option. Rents are very expensive now. They are not going to default on their house and find a house down the street with cheaper rent saving them thousands a month.

People left their houses because they had nothing down and the payments got raised on them. There was no reason for them to stay.

These comments make the most sense to me .

 

[MrsVP]

We're in construction (kitchen and bath remodel), and we're very busy--we're also very seasonal due to our location (Palm Springs area). In a month, it's going to be balls to the wall, just like it was last year. My husband and I rode out the recession last time. We're smart with our money--pay cash for everything that we can. Our little place at the river is paid for, so when shit hits the fan, we can scurry down there and take the rat holed money with us until it comes back around. It always crashes, and it always comes back

 

[monkeyswrench]

Well, so far I think I did good just by leaving the PRK (People's Republic of Kalifornia). As far as preparation, I believe in the pay down debt theory. I survived 07-10, but it sucked. I didn't know the toy business was booming though, seems a lot like 07. Yes, I would hope people learned from the mistakes that were made. I just wonder if there is a new crop of fools, like I was, thinking it would never end. Teeth kicked in...learn and move on. I wonder if that is what perpetuates the cycle. I was lucky, bought my first house in 99, a repo. Stair stepped through a few, but have the two currents paid for. No, not mansions, not in high rent districts, and no badass boats, but no payments...Keeping my teeth next time!

 

[2Driver]

One of the larger hard money loans I've done for a ground up spec home just sold for full price in less than 6 weeks. I thought for sure it would sit a bit.

https://www.russlyon.com/homes-for-...3/6109_n_33rd_st/lid-5b6f5823c9e72ec6929ee27b

 

[Bullet28]

I work for a family owned Steel Service Center with a large fabrication shop we do it all so I sell to lots of different companies primarily rock, sand and gravel accounts and since we are located in Ripon, Ca we are in the heart of everything ag, also I deal with lots of structural steel accounts and each one of these types of businesses are slammed and the reason I mention this is the tariffs is something I have to talk about quite often as customers want to know about pricing which has at least flattened out some, the four major competitors I compete against are also slammed I don’t see this changing anytime soon, I live in Stockton and as far as homes not an abundance of inventory but a nice house has a fairly high price tag. Across the street from me there asking 415K nice place but I think overpriced somewhat if it’s sold for that I’ll have to possibly rethink what I want to do, but overall I think the economy is doing pretty well, our sister company manufactures highway way slip form pavers that lay the concrete for roads and anything concrete and sell all over the world and there booked until at least June of 20 so I get a really good perspective and it doesn’t hurt that I’ve been ther 43 years so I’ve seen a lot happen.

Ray

 

[jetur]

I'm in Phoenix in commercial / residential construction and the projects are literally being held up by lack of labor (block layers and concrete). Can't find enough people to do the work. It's booming.

I think/ hope we are a long way from the edge of the cliff for a couple reasons. The last party in office had tax plans that weren't very reassuring to the upper crust. This side lined a lot of money that could have been recirculating through the economy making things go / crating jobs. As long as the new regime stays in office and nothing catastrophic happens the top 1% keeps recirculating because they are comfortable with the status quo.

The other indicator I watch is the value of my home. In "05" it sold for 525k. It's now worth around 450k. We should be Ok for a while, at least in Az.

 

[grancuda]

I am in Tulsa & everything is booming, new houses going up everywhere, steel & piping fab shops are months out instead of weeks & weekly sending out new/higher pricing schedules. All the good engine machine shops are 6 months to a year out & crazy high $ builds being done. The 2 powdercoat shops I know are swamped & stacking up & buying new equip/more hands.

Lake is busier than ever & stacked 2/3 deep on the sandy beaches, never been that busy since we started going. The dunes are full of tricked out $20-$30k SXS instead of quads & the occasional LS powered buggy, within the past year to two it’s pretty much too busy now to enjoy & we have been going since 2005. A buddy that runs a quad dyno shop & has gotten into the SXS hop-up business is swamped & guys are bringing new 25k SXS’s in & putting $20-30k in crazy builds, tearing down motors, full suspensions, cages, crazy lighting & stereos, he said he never would have guessed this crazy ride the SXS craze has taken him on. He was content building 100hp banshees & flat track 450’s.

The commute to work is pretty much all trucks & big SUVs as opposed to the little efficient beaters & motorcycles back when the bottom fell out.

Yeah, around here the economy is booming.

 

[EmpirE231]

People haven’t learned their lessons from the last go around, or quickly forgotten. Some forget that the last time around... everything was booming, jobs were great etc etc and then the bubble burst. I think you’ll see the job shed right when it all falls apart.

I’d rather things keep chugging along for another 2 years or so to give me more time to save and prepare. Who knows, it can fall apart next month, or it can be several years. One thing for certain, is that you can never be too certain. And sometimes you gotta read the writing on the wall. If it smells like 06-07 all over again... it most likely is.

 

[RCDave]

Pigs get fat and sheep get slaughtered....
By the time the sheep notice the wolves, it's too late

 

[evantwheeler]

One of the larger hard money loans I've done for a ground up spec home just sold for full price in less than 6 weeks. I thought for sure it would sit a bit.

https://www.russlyon.com/homes-for-...3/6109_n_33rd_st/lid-5b6f5823c9e72ec6929ee27b

Wow. This home is absolutely stunning. I have non idea why someone (or even a family) would want a home that size, but the design and finishes are on point.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

People haven’t learned their lessons from the last go around, or quickly forgotten. Some forget that the last time around... everything was booming, jobs were great etc etc and then the bubble burst. I think you’ll see the job shed right when it all falls apart.

I’d rather things keep chugging along for another 2 years or so to give me more time to save and prepare. Who knows, it can fall apart next month, or it can be several years. One thing for certain, is that you can never be too certain. And sometimes you gotta read the writing on the wall. If it smells like 06-07 all over again... it most likely is.

Explain what is going to collapse next month? You are going to get plenty of warning... you don’t go from 3% unemployment to 7% and everyone defaulting on everyring they purchased in one month.

2006 was not some magical economic time that can’t ever be surpassed. The fundamentals are quite different then vs now.

 

[RCDave]

Explain what is going to collapse next month? You are going to get plenty of warning... you don’t go from 3% unemployment to 7% and everyone defaulting on everyring they purchased in one month.

2006 was not some magical economic time that can’t ever be surpassed. The fundamentals are quite different then vs now.

You really believe unemployment is at 3%? Maybe if Obama was president. Lol. Real world is over 10%. Inflation is what 1-3%? Maybe on Mars.

 

[arch stanton]

My business is tied to construction so I have done a fair amount of looking at historical data on median house values, housing starts,resesions and GDP.

The housing crash of 07 officialy only lasted about 2 years but the reality for my business was we did not really get back to work until 2012 and that was in part due to every one went BK, about 2014 the new house construction took off but even now we are not building homes at rate that is high from a historical average.
While prices are up to the highs of 2007 we should see a little more inflation in price before we get a pull back historical about 10 % and it should last less than 18 months but that does not mean that construction will stop like it did in 2008 it should slow down.

Now the bad news historical mortgage interest rates are much higher than now and for every 1% increase is mortgage rate a 500K house with a 30 year fixed rate will cost about 300$ per month more to make the payment equal the house would have to come down 50K in price this is comparing a 5% to a 6% loan.
In San Diego that means the median house price from August 2018 would have to go back to the price from February 2018 so at these levels anybody that bought since 2008 until February has equity or if you bought before 2006 you also have equity.

I believe builders have plenty of margin in the new homes they are building to take a price cut and to keep building because they did not plan to ever sell these houses for as much as there are getting now they started the process as much as 10 or more years ago.

This is my business and how I see it in San Diego but your business is different and in a different city do some research related to your business and see what the trends are.

Dietech going BK because they did not plan for a time when the prime rate went above 0% is just plain stupid

 

[monkeyswrench]

arch, good info. Yes, my town is way different than big cities. That was why I wanted to ask people who are in the real world. Usually home builders do some planning, and try keep profitability. I just haven't been up to date on the outside world. If there is a 10% adjustment, it wouldn't be the end of the world. 25-30%...different ballgame.

 

[zhandfull]

I work in public works contract administration for a large municipality. For the last year or so been getting an increasing amount of stop payment request on city construction contracts from suppliers and sub contractors that aren't getting paid by the prime contractor. On the private side, permit work, also hearing of contractors not getting paid as well from developers.

 

[zhandfull]

One other personal observation. Three months ago I was on a waiting list for pilot training. This week same facility is calling me trying to fill open spots.

 

[wzuber]

What i see. I make 95k ayear. Just me. There is no way I can afford to buy a house here in kommifornia. Most of the people that I know buying houses, are people who already owned a house and are moving to a larger one or a better area. The difference in price is about 200k. That can be afforded. But I know of absolutely nobody buying for the first time.

Hell with my pay here in kommifornia I should qualify for poverty

Sent from my SM-G900T using Tapatalk

you would if you were in the S.F. Bay area. I believe they are in the 105K-115K level for benefits.

 

[C-2]

I work for a state agency that overseas contractors and there are 700 more complaints in the SoCal region compared to last year. We're not sure if the increased numbers are due to contractors being too busy and putting out shoddy work, or if more people are dumping money into their homes and the increase is attributed to the shear volume of projects. My guess is the latter. I shake my head daily in disbelief at the amounts of cash people are spending. Also, I have not seen an increase in contractor vs contractor complaints over nonpayment.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

You really believe unemployment is at 3%? Maybe if Obama was president. Lol. Real world is over 10%. Inflation is what 1-3%? Maybe on Mars.

It does not even matter what the “real” numbers are. They aren’t going to double in a month and crash the economy. When we have a quarter or more of consistent job losses, start thinking about recession.

As an aside, Everyone was saying unemployment was really at 10% before Trump took office, it has not stayed the same since then, it has gone down and more people are employed.

 

[monkeyswrench]

I am by no means an economist, or very smart, but the way I always thought about it as this: The unemployment numbers go up after the flow of expendable income goes down. As unemployment goes up, there is even less expendable income. So on and such...If money is still being spent, people are still working. That being said, I don't know what starts the ball rolling, interest rates, inflation, etc...

 

[RCDave]

Interest Rates:
As interest rates increase, typically used by the fed as a tool to cool inflation and the rate of economic growth, the impacts to consumer and business debt service increase. This reduces demand in the overall economy, as there are less dollars available to invest or spend. Higher interest rates on the debt carried by the government also increase substantially, which in turn further increases the budget deficit. This pressures either tax increases or spending cuts. Both impact total dollars available for spending, savings, or investment. These higher rates also impact asset values such as all classes of real estate and eventually the securities (stock market). Higher interest rates eventually trickle down causing an increase in interest rates on depository rates. This incentives savings and investment (good in the long term but further suppressing spending/consumption).

Inflation:
Inflation is caused mostly by the fed printing more and more dollars. More dollars chasing goods and services erodes the purchasing power of said dollar. i.e. basic supply and demand. Inflation overtime is damaging to consumers as it takes more dollars to purchase a product. Its a sham but government inflation figures exclude a SUBSTANTIAL amounts of spending, mainly in the area of food and energy. While the govt has reported fairly low inflation figures until recently, who has not been impacted by significantly higher prices on food, gasoline/diesel, electricity, gas, water, etc.

Inflation is a powerful government tool to screw its populous. It allows the government to repay prior deficits with cheaper dollars, at the expense of its citizens (who bear all the downstream pain).

 

[monkeyswrench]

See, this is why I posted the questions I have. I am just barely bright enough to understand what's on the horizon. There are people here that can see beyond that, be it from education or personal experience. The ,"Bean Counter" classes were not my strong point. Geometry, another story. History I did well in, and that's why I am somewhat anxious of the future. I am more comfortable with a hammer or a wrench, than I am behind a keyboard.

 

[Classic Daycruiser]

It does not even matter what the “real” numbers are. They aren’t going to double in a month and crash the economy. When we have a quarter of job losses, start thinking about recession.

As an aside, Everyone was saying unemployment was really at 10% before Trump took office, it has not stayed the same since then it has gone down.

 

[riverroyal]

San Diego is about to have the biggest commercial, industrial, healthcare, hospitality construction boom ever. The projects are there, they are starting. Once its boots on the ground its going to be madness. There will be a labor shortage for the first time ever in SD.
The contractors know, the unions know. Companies are now passing up great projects with fear of having too much.

This ^^^ will lead to needing more houses, selling more cars, spending.
No down turn for SD on the horizon

 

[DrunkenSailor]

I am in Tulsa & everything is booming, new houses going up everywhere, steel & piping fab shops are months out instead of weeks & weekly sending out new/higher pricing schedules. All the good engine machine shops are 6 months to a year out & crazy high $ builds being done. The 2 powdercoat shops I know are swamped & stacking up & buying new equip/more hands.

Lake is busier than ever & stacked 2/3 deep on the sandy beaches, never been that busy since we started going. The dunes are full of tricked out $20-$30k SXS instead of quads & the occasional LS powered buggy, within the past year to two it’s pretty much too busy now to enjoy & we have been going since 2005. A buddy that runs a quad dyno shop & has gotten into the SXS hop-up business is swamped & guys are bringing new 25k SXS’s in & putting $20-30k in crazy builds, tearing down motors, full suspensions, cages, crazy lighting & stereos, he said he never would have guessed this crazy ride the SXS craze has taken him on. He was content building 100hp banshees & flat track 450’s.

The commute to work is pretty much all trucks & big SUVs as opposed to the little efficient beaters & motorcycles back when the bottom fell out.

Yeah, around here the economy is booming.

Would love to see pictures of the dunes and lakes you guys go out on in that part of the country. You should start a thread.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

One of the larger hard money loans I've done for a ground up spec home just sold for full price in less than 6 weeks. I thought for sure it would sit a bit.

https://www.russlyon.com/homes-for-...3/6109_n_33rd_st/lid-5b6f5823c9e72ec6929ee27b

I would live here. Rest of the house is awesome but I would be fine with this.

 

[Ziggy]

We're in construction (kitchen and bath remodel), and we're very busy--we're also very seasonal due to our location (Palm Springs area). In a month, it's going to be balls to the wall, just like it was last year. My husband and I rode out the recession last time. We're smart with our money--pay cash for everything that we can. Our little place at the river is paid for, so when shit hits the fan, we can scurry down there and take the rat holed money with us until it comes back around. It always crashes, and it always comes back

That's what killed everyone in 07-08, not being prepared(or expecting) for a downturn and having leveraged all their assets for cash.
I witnessed a neighbor who inherited her moms house that took advantage of this too by pulling equity, buying multiple new cars and then walking away from it.

 

[ChumpChange]

Wells Fargo Mortgage just laid off 600 people.

And they're also hiring. Trimming the fat.

 

[Cole Trickle]

That's what killed everyone in 07-08, not being prepared(or expecting) for a downturn and having leveraged all their assets for cash.
I witnessed a neighbor who inherited her moms house that took advantage of this too by pulling equity, buying multiple new cars and then walking away from it.

Several of my clients walked away from long term homes when the walking was good. One really stood out to me as the client was late 50's and bought the house for sub 200K in the 80's yet walked away because he had a 650K + mortgage on the house.....Insane

 

[ChumpChange]

Several of my clients walked away from long term homes when the walking was good. One really stood out to me as the client was late 50's and bought the house for sub 200K in the 80's yet walked away because he had a 650K + mortgage on the house.....Insane

There were also temporary laws in place where people could walk and not be subject to income tax on the "forgiveness" of debt making it a little easier as well.

 

[Classic Daycruiser]

. When people have toy money the economy is usually good. Just like in the past it can end pretty quick.

With a job, you too can buy a $30k sand toy, with $6k down.

 

[D19]

90% of Americans live pay check to paycheck. For most people in America, it will only take a small blip for their highly leveraged lifestyles to come crashing down.

Cheap money (low interest) is an incentive for consumers, governments and business to use debt rather than save their own capital.

The US has far more consumer and government debt than in 2007 or ever.

If you look at any past economic crisis, what is the common denominator? Debt.

 

[530RL]

One of the larger hard money loans I've done for a ground up spec home just sold for full price in less than 6 weeks. I thought for sure it would sit a bit.

https://www.russlyon.com/homes-for-...3/6109_n_33rd_st/lid-5b6f5823c9e72ec6929ee27b

I live 3 blocks due east on 1.8 acres. The 607 bucks a foot you received is a grand slam in that neighborhood.

Nice job. Excellent result.

 

[D19]

You really believe unemployment is at 3%? Maybe if Obama was president. Lol. Real world is over 10%. Inflation is what 1-3%? Maybe on Mars.

This is a good clip that showcases the hypocrisy from the people (government) who report flawed numbers.

It's interesting to see the current president report the same phony unemployment and economic data that the previous president did, yet receive the support from the group of people that was smart enough to see the lies in the previous numbers reported by the previous administration.

Its the same phony data, the only difference is whose mouth it's coming out of.

 

[HNL2LHC]

https://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/stories/2009/12/21/daily15.html

Keep in mind just because they are building a project it will be completed. Last downturn there was a high rise stopped half way up for a few years. It was different with all of the financial lending practices back then. But don’t worry the government fixed everything so we will not go down that path again.....

 

[RCDave]

This is a good clip that showcases the hypocrisy from the people (government) who report flawed numbers.

It's interesting to see the current president report the same phony unemployment and economic data that the previous president did, yet receive the support from the group of people that was smart enough to see the lies in the previous numbers reported by the previous administration.

Its the same phony data, the only difference is whose mouth it's coming out of.

Don't be pushin fake news D19. lol

 

[EmpirE231]

Explain what is going to collapse next month? You are going to get plenty of warning... you don’t go from 3% unemployment to 7% and everyone defaulting on everyring they purchased in one month.

2006 was not some magical economic time that can’t ever be surpassed. The fundamentals are quite different then vs now.

I am not saying "collapse" next month as in it all happens suddenly. Things that can start creeping downward are stock market, and real estate prices (already sort of happening) IF these things happen or continue, the job losses will follow.

Were we loosing hundreds of thousands of jobs for several months in 2007 before the down turn happened? The way I remembered it were the job losses followed the economic down turn.

Also, jobs on the books for the next 2 years are great and all if it all comes through, but if we have a big economic hiccup... don't be surprised if they all just get cancelled like last time. I am no expert... just a guy trying to learn from history, and keeping my eye on whats going on around me. pools being put in left and right, everyone is remodeling their homes... most contractors are so busy that you are lucky to get a call back, let alone any decent work done. Consumer debt at all time high, 70k finance trucks, 40k financed side by sides and 100k fifth wheels are just the norm now. every pool contractor in town has a new truck now... people that I know that got punched in the nose the last time around are all back to their same habits. Everyone I know in toy industries or construction is "busier than ever", but those I know in real estate are all slowing down quite a bit... and most agents I know are all expecting a downturn. Those that are honest with themselves say they don't know what the future holds... those that are not honest with themselves, give some magic crystal ball estimate of a 5-10% drop... because it just "can't happen again".

I'm taking it all as a sign to be cautious... that is all. The topic is about "what do you see"

 

[Mandelon]

The housing market can't just keep going up at a crazy pace. It needs to return to a historic average like it should be, around 4% to 5% a year. A leveling off of prices is a essentially a good thing, not an indicator of some impending crash. It means some common sense is returning to an overheated market.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

People haven’t learned their lessons from the last go around, or quickly forgotten. Some forget that the last time around... everything was booming, jobs were great etc etc and then the bubble burst. I think you’ll see the job shed right when it all falls apart.

I’d rather things keep chugging along for another 2 years or so to give me more time to save and prepare. Who knows, it can fall apart next month, or it can be several years. One thing for certain, is that you can never be too certain. And sometimes you gotta read the writing on the wall. If it smells like 06-07 all over again... it most likely is.

I am not saying "collapse" next month as in it all happens suddenly. Things that can start creeping downward are stock market, and real estate prices (already sort of happening) IF these things happen or continue, the job losses will follow.

Were we loosing hundreds of thousands of jobs for several months in 2007 before the down turn happened? The way I remembered it were the job losses followed the economic down turn.

Also, jobs on the books for the next 2 years are great and all if it all comes through, but if we have a big economic hiccup... don't be surprised if they all just get cancelled like last time. I am no expert... just a guy trying to learn from history, and keeping my eye on whats going on around me. pools being put in left and right, everyone is remodeling their homes... most contractors are so busy that you are lucky to get a call back, let alone any decent work done. Consumer debt at all time high, 70k finance trucks, 40k financed side by sides and 100k fifth wheels are just the norm now. every pool contractor in town has a new truck now... people that I know that got punched in the nose the last time around are all back to their same habits. Everyone I know in toy industries or construction is "busier than ever", but those I know in real estate are all slowing down quite a bit... and most agents I know are all expecting a downturn. Those that are honest with themselves say they don't know what the future holds... those that are not honest with themselves, give some magic crystal ball estimate of a 5-10% drop... because it just "can't happen again".

I'm taking it all as a sign to be cautious... that is all. The topic is about "what do you see"

Your first post made it seem like you recall things fell apart very quickly. It took 18 months. There was an economic slowdown, followed by job losses, followed by more job losses and then deep recession. Everyone keeps talking about 2006 highs, and 2008-2009 lows.. remember there was a 2007 in there. The lesson is to pay attention to indicators. If you thought everything was all good and suddenly lost your job.. it is too late.

I worked in the mortgage industry and got laid off in 2006, just after the "peak". They knew the party was over. They laid off 17,000 people that day.

Many people don't learn and more importantly, most don't really care. If their toys get repoed..who cares? There is no real consequence. That will be the first thing they stop paying for when they lose a job.

People are not going to lose houses like they did last time. There is little reason for them to walk away... If they bought more than 2-3 years ago, rent is probably as high or higher than their house payment anyway. People walked away from their houses because they could not afford the increasing payments and had no skin in the game. An increasing payment is not a problem with a normal 30 year fixed mortgage like most people have now.

If you are waiting around thinking housing is going to drop 40%+ nationally again in this generation.. it isn't going to happen.

 

[Bpracing1127]

When you see this, times are good



http://www.offroadloans.com/