Treasuries

[2Driver]

I feel like I’m all set now. Should make it through the next 2 years, even if stocks crash.

The trick now is how to fineness a transition to long term to lock in rates.

Before the Fed reaches the top I think I’ll be looking for longer term corporates and some preferred stock paying north of 6%. Be nice to lock in 6%+ and just forget all this shit and go spend money. I have my hard money in Treasuries now and it feels good.

 

[coolchange]

So are you buying 1 , 100k T, or 5 20k Ts

 

[240Hallett]

How do the treasury’s compare with CDs? Our bank is offering 5% CDs for 11 months.

 

[Orange Juice]

So are you buying 1 , 100k T, or 5 20k Ts

I have mine maturing around tax/ insurance time. Buy in multiples that can be managed.

 

[2Driver]

So are you buying 1 , 100k T, or 5 20k Ts

I buy at Schwab on the open market. For the most part you can buy as little or as much as you want in any amounts and a variety of maturity dates not just the 3-6-12 month.
Sometimes there are minimums or maxes depending on what’s available for that particular offering. I just try to roll amounts where something is coming due each month, but I started about 6 months ago with some 3 months and some 4 months and some 6 months.

Does that answer your question?

 

[2Driver]

How do the treasury’s compare with CDs? Our bank is offering 5% CDs for 11 months.

Treasuries at 6 months are 5% now with no state tax burden, not a ton of difference.

 

[240Hallett]

Treasuries at 6 months are 5% now with no state tax burden, not a ton of difference.

Do the CDs get taxed?

 

[coolchange]

I buy at Schwab on the open market. For the most part you can buy as little or as much as you want in any amounts and a variety of maturity dates not just the 3-6-12 month.
Sometimes there are minimums or maxes depending on what’s available for that particular offering. I just try to roll amounts where something is coming due each month, but I started about 6 months ago with some 3 months and some 4 months and some 6 months.

Does that answer your question?

Pretty much. And I know we talked about laddering them out. Getting ready to pull the trigger again and was going to do multiple 6 months instead of one so I can sell one if I need to instead of breaking into one larger one. I see no down side to multiples?

 

[boatnam2]

Just help my FIL finish his ladder, 3-6-9-12, 3 year deal so he is liquid every month if he needs cash, that will get him to 90

 

[Orange Juice]

If you use the taylor rule the Fed Funds Rate should be just over 9%!

View attachment 1098457
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/taylorrule.pdf

Half way there,

 

[2Driver]

Do the CDs get taxed?

Yes, normal income rate for Fed and state.

Pretty much. And I know we talked about laddering them out. Getting ready to pull the trigger again and was going to do multiple 6 months instead of one so I can sell one if I need to instead of breaking into one larger one. I see no down side to multiples?

Im no expert, just been doing it since rates came up enough for me to find alternatives for my hard money lending cash.

I’ve done the same thing by splitting amounts but buying the same duration. I see no downside and if you did need the money you dont need to sell a whole bill. Keep in mind if you really think you’ll need the money Schwab’s money market ( SNAXX) is paying 4.5%. I still have a decent position sitting in there, but it pays a half point behind the 6-month T bill and you pay state taxes on the interest.

As of this morning with the PPI number it looks like rates are surley going up. I wouldn’t be going out past 6 months but that’s just me.

 

[boatnam2]

Riding 2drivers coattails and keep a bucket in SPAXX incase i see something i like.

 

[caribbean20]

It’s a savers delight. You can fall out of bed and earn 4.5% these days. My what a difference a year makes.

 

[hallett21]

It’s a savers delight. You can fall out of bed and earn 4.5% these days. My what a difference a year makes.

While losing 4%(or whatever the real number is) to inflation…..

Honest question to those of you playing with over 100k in Tbills. Why not follow the market with aggressive stop losses? If all you need is 5% in 6 months, shouldn’t be that hard to achieve. Still seems like there’s much more upside in the stock market.

 

[c_land]

While losing 4%(or whatever the real number is) to inflation…..

Honest question to those of you playing with over 100k in Tbills. Why not follow the market with aggressive stop losses? If all you need is 5% in 6 months, shouldn’t be that hard to achieve. Still seems like there’s much more upside in the stock market.

People said the same thing about cash last year losing 7% to inflation…..all while the s&p was down 22% ytd at times.

SPY was return was -18% last year. You would have to day trade it and follow trends and news closely to be on top of it. Even then, the big funds can act way quicker than you will ever be able to.

I do still have a day job that would get in the way of my day trading lol.

Treasuries you can set it/forget it, earn a decent safe return, and be exempt from state income tax.

 

[hallett21]

People said the same thing about cash last year losing 7% to inflation…..all while the s&p was down 22% ytd at times.

SPY was return was -18% last year. You would have to day trade it and follow trends and news closely to be on top of it. Even then, the big funds can act way quicker than you will ever be able to.

I do still have a day job that would get in the way of my day trading lol.

Treasuries you can set it/forget it, earn a decent safe return, and be exempt from state income tax.

100%

I’ve just seen trends now that I’ve built the “bank roll” up that are hard to pass up. Admittedly it is option trading and you need to be glued to the fucking monitor. If you don’t you could lose a big chunk in seconds. But making 1-5% in 5 mins is not un heard of when you just watch the trends.

Just seems like 5-6% over 6 months with 100k+ is not the best way to invest your money. You’re working in a different caliber at that point. I do understand it’s guaranteed so that’s hard to beat. But if you believe in inflation then you agree that you’re losing money.

 

[2Driver]

I was going to post a new thread but I’ll try here…..

Has anyone put money in a covered call or “put“ strategy fund for income?

After looking into it more it seems pretty low risk and provides nice income. I was looking at Mariner wealths strategies but you can do the same with an ETF like JP Morgan’s JEPI which makes an 11% yield.

 

[boatnam2]

I was going to post a new thread but I’ll try here…..

Has anyone put money in a covered call or “put“ strategy fund for income?

After looking into it more it seems pretty low risk and provides nice income. I was looking at Mariner wealths strategies but you can do the same with an ETF like JP Morgan’s JEPI which makes an 11% yield.

I have been in JEPI for a little while, give it a year or 2 and see how it does. Paying every month like clock work, could take a hit we will see.

 

[2Driver]

I have been in JEPI for a little while, give it a year or 2 and see how it does. Paying every month like clock work, could take a hit we will see.

I missed the dip. Ive been waiting to pick up JEPI and SCHD for long holds.

 

[Orange Juice]

While losing 4%(or whatever the real number is) to inflation…..

Honest question to those of you playing with over 100k in Tbills. Why not follow the market with aggressive stop losses? If all you need is 5% in 6 months, shouldn’t be that hard to achieve. Still seems like there’s much more upside in the stock market.

All my stuff is paid off, so at least I’m not paying interest. I’m more concerned about the supply shortages.

4-6% is a great short term rate, with no downside at the moment.

It would be nice to see a 1/2 point hike, but I don’t think it will stop the job market. We have more work then what we know what to do with. (At least a couple years worth, and just to get people trained takes 2-3 years).

 

[caribbean20]

While losing 4%(or whatever the real number is) to inflation…..

Honest question to those of you playing with over 100k in Tbills. Why not follow the market with aggressive stop losses? If all you need is 5% in 6 months, shouldn’t be that hard to achieve. Still seems like there’s much more upside in the stock market.

Fair comment and question, but who says people don’t have equities exposure AND fixed income. Traditional 60/40 or 70/30 equities/fixed income split is a battle-tested strategy over many years.

I was just commenting on the fixed income piece, unless you are proposing people should be 100% equities, for which I disagree.

Also as to the inflation comment. Remember, everyone has a different sensitivity to inflation. For many retired old duffers, food cost may be the biggest inflation item, and food just ain’t that big of a budget item. Personally, inflation just isn’t that big of a deal, until it’s time to gas up the boat.

 

[Orange Juice]

I‘m feeling lucky I got in on the two year last month.
Rates are down this month, and probably won’t break 4%.

It will be interesting to see if the Federal Reserve has the balls to raise rates, after last weeks mess.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

How

Keep in mind when interest rates are due to go up in the near future investors tend to shy away from longer term bonds hence their yield will be lower. People will gravitate to lower duration bonds and those yields will move up.

Also the US government owns 25% of its own debt which are the longer term bonds. That purchasing demand by the fed helped to keep those longer duration yields low too. I’m not sure the the inversion has as much meaning right now as it would normally.

Once the Government starts selling its holdings of US bonds the longer rates should go up, since they will be adding supply of bonds for sale. the last time the Fed started easing the balance sheet it really impacted the market to the point they had to pull back.

I feel like I’m in a group of circled wagons and about 10,000 Indians are gathering just over the hill and I can’t see them but I know they are coming.

How Freaking prophetic was this post. You should have been the risk manager for svb

 

[BingerFang]

I‘m feeling lucky I got in on the two year last month.
Rates are down this month, and probably won’t break 4%.

It will be interesting to see if the Federal Reserve has the balls to raise rates, after last weeks mess.

They’ll raise it 25bps is my guess. We’re fucked if they blink now.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

The money is on a quarter point.

CME FedWatch Tool - CME Group

Count down to the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate hike with the CME FedWatch Tool, based on the Fed Funds target rate. View the tool.

www.cmegroup.com

 

[HTMike]

Sucks if you are holding on to overpriced assets and want to get liquid. I just bought a brand new Nautique G23 today and they sold it for about 100k OFF msrp. Cash and carry. They said the market is beyond dead right now. They actually gave allocations back to the factory ! Two years ago it was MSRP only and nothing was available. Those guys who bought are deeeeep underwater.

 

[Orange Juice]

Sucks if you are holding on to overpriced assets and want to get liquid. I just bought a brand new Nautique G23 today and they sold it for about 100k OFF msrp. Cash and carry. They said the market is beyond dead right now. They actually gave allocations back to the factory ! Two years ago it was MSRP only and nothing was available. Those guys who bought are deeeeep underwater.

If it’s a 2022 model, it’s an old model now. The 2023 is different.

 

[HTMike]

If it’s a 2022 model, it’s an old model now. The 2023 is different.

Its a 23. Whats the difference from the 22's ?

 

[Orange Juice]

Cup holders, speakers, and colors.

And some kind of a funky ballast…new for 2023.

Whats New in 2023 | Nautique Boats

Check out some of the new feature offerings for 2023, and enjoy creating your next or first Nautique today on our Design Your Nautique interactive boat builder.

nautique.com

 

[HTMike]

Cup holders, speakers, and colors.

And some kind of a funky ballast…new for 2023.

Whats New in 2023 | Nautique Boats

Check out some of the new feature offerings for 2023, and enjoy creating your next or first Nautique today on our Design Your Nautique interactive boat builder.

nautique.com

Its supplemental ballast from the Paragon. 2022's could actually get it too.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

Fed raised .25 bonds reacted with a 22 basis points drop. The world has gone mad.

 

[coolchange]

Fed raised .25 bonds reacted with a 22 basis points drop. The world has gone mad.

Wtf

 

[Orange Juice]

Fed raised .25 bonds reacted with a 22 basis points drop. The world has gone mad.

Just keep buying the short end.

At some point, the Fed wants to see 5-5.25%. I can live on that, but would love the opportunity to buy the 30 year at 7%, like they did in the early 1980’s. (That would make me go build a new boat).

Water, Food, Shelter, and insurance. If you have those covered with Treasures, and you’re still healthy, life is good.

Rates should start to jump when we’re actually in a recession. That will happen when homeowners can’t pay their credit card bills.

 

[TimeBandit]

Just keep buying the short end.

At some point, the Fed wants to see 5-5.25%. I can live on that, but would love the opportunity to buy the 30 year at 7%, like they did in the early 1980’s. (That would make me go build a new boat).

Water, Food, Shelter, and insurance. If you have those covered with Treasures, and you’re still healthy, life is good.

Rates should start to jump when we’re actually in a recession. That will happen when homeowners can’t pay their credit card bills.

In the early 1980's 10 year and 30 year treasuries hit 13%+

I remember buying a truck at 9.9% apr and thinking I hit a home run!

 

[caribbean20]

Just keep buying the short end.

At some point, the Fed wants to see 5-5.25%. I can live on that, but would love the opportunity to buy the 30 year at 7%, like they did in the early 1980’s. (That would make me go build a new boat).

Water, Food, Shelter, and insurance. If you have those covered with Treasures, and you’re still healthy, life is good.

Rates should start to jump when we’re actually in a recession. That will happen when homeowners can’t pay their credit card bills.

Hear, hear on staying short. 4.5% to 5% in a money market fund when I can pull the money in one day. I’ll take that every day and twice on Sunday. Your comment on inflation is spot on, inflation impacts people very differently depending on circumstances.

However, America is only as strong as the backbone of this nation, the middle class. Going to be tough sledding for a while, but people must adjust. Last few years of easy money was a fairy tale and could never last.

 

[Orange Juice]

2 year is back above 4%. I’m buying more this week. Also picked up more 4 & 8 week today.

I don’t see rates going much higher, with Regional banks on shaky ground, but we’ll see.

I’m now generating a cash flow, and buying more every month.

 

[Orange Juice]

Since this thread is chock full of brainiacs, I have a question regarding the pending recession. The majority of my saving is with Ally, since they usually pay a higher yield than brick and mortar banks. Does the brain trust think this is safe, of should I transfer to a Chase, B of A, or similar type bank?

How did this work out for you?

 

[Orange Juice]

Real Estate, Gold, Silver, T-Bills.

2 year moved back above 4% today.
Gold is over $2000 an Ounce.
Real Estate still in great shape.

Anything else doing better than 0% ROI ?

Crypto had some gains, but they’re still down over 50% from their highs.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

Real Estate, Gold, Silver, T-Bills.

2 year moved back above 4% today.
Gold is over $2000 an Ounce.
Real Estate still in great shape.

Anything else doing better than 0% ROI ?

Crypto had some gains, but they’re still down over 50% from their highs.

Just throw a little bit of money at everything seems to be the game plan. I’ve kept a decent amount in energy stocks cause the harder the left rails against it the stronger it will come back is my theory.

 

[2Driver]

Anyone transitioning from short term to longer term yet?

I’m thinking it might be time for some 2-5‘s before they drop.

 

[angiebaby]

If you guys recall, I posted a similar thread in early Spring. I ended up purchasing some 6 mo treasuries through Ameritrade. I went with the "new issues" instead of the open market because that was confusing for me to navigate since I was new to this. I believe the transaction cleared the first week of April to mature in October. Well, fast forward to early June, and we make an offer on a house, and I now need the cash. I called Ameritrade and talked to someone right away (not in India); he told me how to sell them, it seemed easy enough, but since I had him on the line, I just had him do it. They sold that day, and the money was in my cash account the next day and in my checking account 2 days later. Plus. . . . I still made the 5+% interest up to that point. Because of this, I think that the treasuries beat the CDs all to hell. You can get your $$ from the CD, but you have to pay a penalty. If you can find a MM that pays the same, that is a good option also.

 

[boatnam2]

5.47% today on 1 year, little bit more and i think its time to get some longer duration stuff.

 

[TimeBandit]

I got some 6 month bonds maturing in the next few weeks, I'll be buying more of the same.

Who knows how high it will go, I can dream of 1980 era returns, but not likely to happen.

 

[2Driver]

I think anything maturing in 1-2 years risks maturing into a low rate environment. I’m thinking of locking in some at 3-5 years for some predictability. LOL fuck IDK

 

[boatnam2]

I think anything maturing in 1-2 years risks maturing into a low rate environment. I’m thinking of locking in some at 3-5 years for some predictability. LOL fuck IDK

I'm with you on that, I would like to sprinkle some 3-5 yr 5+% on my sugar pile.

 

[C_J_J_C]

I hatee the ups and downs so In March I locked a 3.9% on a three year. Thought I did well.... huge number too.... oh well

 

[boatnam2]

I think anything maturing in 1-2 years risks maturing into a low rate environment. I’m thinking of locking in some at 3-5 years for some predictability. LOL fuck IDK

Did you ever pick up some JEPI OR JEPQ?

 

[2Driver]

Did you ever pick up some JEPI OR JEPQ?

I plan on it but trying to pick it, JEPI, up on a downturn say around $50. Staying away from JEPQ right now because it’s all big tech and that has rallied big time. Probably pick up some SCHD if it gets back in the 67-68 range.

 

[2Driver]

I hatee the ups and downs so In March I locked a 3.9% on a three year. Thought I did well.... huge number too.... oh well

Nothing wrong with 4% for 3 years. I’m surprised you got that back in March. Is that yield to maturity or coupon or both?
I'm looking at 4.2 for 5 years now.

 

[caribbean20]

Did a little research last night. The long term average for the 10 yr yield is 4.25%, or about +2 percentage points above inflation. If the Fed is successful, that means the 10 yr should settle around 4%.

I think we all have nightmares about the 2010s when rates were artificially low for SO long. Net, net, I’m staying short and taking advantage of these good rates while the getting is good. Further out, I could certainly live with 4% if inflation is tamed.