The Great Slow Down

[COCA COLA COWBOY]

When real estate slows, construction is usually a year out from slowing. From the numbers that I review, real estate just started slowing enough to be substantial. I'm sorry to say it, but the residential construction will probably feel it third quarter next year. The construction firms that get the government contracts for schools, buildings, hospitals should be decent for the next 3 years or so. Slower, but decent.

My prediction was to see real estate pricing returning to 2020 levels which, pending on the numbers you review, we are still quite far from. However, some of the areas that received a huge number of Californian's moving to those areas have shown a small amount of sales getting closer to those 2020 numbers.

I heard the car industry has seen the inventory increase from 30 days of inventory to 45 days presently and are expecting 60 days by year end.

I just wonder how bad it will get. I don't think we will see the big layoffs until after the elections. At that time, we will have more data to predict more accurately.

 

[mesquito_creek]

I'm getting the feeling that the snowbirds are late. Went to the Havasu Landing Casino today on the 12:00pm boat, the wife and I were the only two inside, with 3 people up top, that is unusual for mid- October.

I keep hearing alot of Snow Birds arent coming this year. Economy and Fuel prices.

Canadian dollar is very weak against the US dollar. That means not only are they paying more for fuel and food but also taking a 10plus percent haircut on their money as soon as they cross the border!

What does that mean for us people who get the heck out of here for the summer? It means I am booking a nice 3 week vacation in the whistler blackcomb area of BC Canada for summer 2023. With the exchange rates it’s almost buy 2 weeks get 1 free!

 

[Done-it-again]

Been here for a few months now, but wouldn't know it based on the crowds I see at restaurants over the weekends. Blue collar workers / businesses won't see much or any recession at all.

As for the OP, yoi gotta market man. Candidly, I constantly forget you have a shop in town because I don't see any marketing (RDP, Facebook, Instagram, ETC) so not top of mind.

I see what you said. “Top of mind”. Think I heard that before. Lol.

 

[grumpy88]

Canadian dollar is very weak against the US dollar. That means not only are they paying more for fuel and food but also taking a 10plus percent haircut on their money as soon as they cross the border!

View attachment 1164514

What does that mean for us people who get the heck out of here for the summer? It means I am booking a nice 3 week vacation in the whistler blackcomb area of BC Canada for summer 2023. With the exchange rates it’s almost buy 2 weeks get 1 free!

Do you need to be vaccinated to go to Canada?

 

[CLdrinker]

I’m waiting for 40% off RV stickers to come back so I can buy one. Another 6 months or longer?

You and me both.

 

[Mandelon]

I'm getting way less calls than a few months ago. I have a few bigger projects in the pipeline so we should be good for next year.
I am working getting permits for four new 3/2 homes so once that comes through and financing we will be golden.

One of my customers is a loan broker and his biz is off 70% so far. This slowdown in real estate will ripple through the industry and be very painful.

 

[TCHB]

I talked to the company putting in the new pool across the street. He said they are booked out 6 months for a new pool/backyard. He said more people putting in outdoor kitchens along with new pools..
Golf courses are very busy!

 

[DC-88]

I have about 2 years worth of contracts lined up and in process for custom SFR stuff at the coast. There are seldom construction loans on anything I build, but costs are still way high. Phone is still ringing off the hook, but larger subs with bigger payrolls on current jobs are trying to jump in early or on their own schedule on jobs to keep guys busy for the first time in a few years. Lead times are still up from 2019, but down from a year ago. Stack and pack "affordable" stuff is still in play, but tract shacks financed with rates now up show slowing sales. Just like buying a car back in the day with the sales manager - " so, what payment CAN you live with " .

 

[sintax]

I’m waiting for 40% off RV stickers to come back so I can buy one. Another 6 months or longer?

Same!

I’m watching a very specific truck camper brand. I get alerts when any new one gets listed for sale across the country.

I’ve noticed they’re sitting a LOT longer, and have seen some price drops even.

 

[Ziggy]

I keep hearing alot of Snow Birds arent coming this year. Economy and Fuel prices.

Mine wants to come early, had to put the brakes on that, lol. So now he asked to stay later instead

 

[Done-it-again]

Well the last few days have been interesting. Received an email yesterday for a project that we quoted a few years back and now want to look at it for 23', budget is around 1.75 mil...... then a email this morning for 5 systems for 23' that can be a 1.25 mil total for those...

I don't count on these until i have a PO, but at least there is discussion for expanding in 23'.....

I'm in the garment material handling industry and we follow no trend, we are like a heart machine, consistently up and down all year.

 

[yard dog]

When real estate slows, construction is usually a year out from slowing. From the numbers that I review, real estate just started slowing enough to be substantial. I'm sorry to say it, but the residential construction will probably feel it third quarter next year. The construction firms that get the government contracts for schools, buildings, hospitals should be decent for the next 3 years or so. Slower, but decent.

My prediction was to see real estate pricing returning to 2020 levels which, pending on the numbers you review, we are still quite far from. However, some of the areas that received a huge number of Californian's moving to those areas have shown a small amount of sales getting closer to those 2020 numbers.

I heard the car industry has seen the inventory increase from 30 days of inventory to 45 days presently and are expecting 60 days by year end.

I just wonder how bad it will get. I don't think we will see the big layoffs until after the elections. At that time, we will have more data to predict more accurately.

Newsmax reported that Microsoft just layoff a1000 employees across several divisions this week . Starting to happen but you will not hear that on most new outlets !

 

[RVR SWPR]

What has been deliberately manipulated regarding fuel cost is the killer. Just as much heavy truck traffic on the i40 but double the cost of fuel for product delivery.
Fuel cost for everyday & recreation in the Private sector going to show up drastically for restaurants etc. People still going to buy gas & diesel and cut back in other areas.
If the morons would have kept us in the position of exporting oil as we were 2 years ago all would be ok right now.

 

[2Driver]

2 weeks until the elections. Libs are going to prop up things the best they can. That's why Biden is dumping another 15 million barrels out of the US strategic reserves. Brilliant make America more vulnerable with diminished reserves for your gain.

 

[EmpirE231]

I should have snapped a pic of the local GMC dealer on the way to the office. A few months ago, you were lucky to see 3-4 full size trucks and 5 or so mid size trucks on the lot. Now that dealership is stacked with trucks... can barely fit them all on the lot. What's funny is that the current marketing strategy is "no dealer markup" lol

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

I should have snapped a pic of the local GMC dealer on the way to the office. A few months ago, you were lucky to see 3-4 full size trucks and 5 or so mid size trucks on the lot. Now that dealership is stacked with trucks... can barely fit them all on the lot. What's funny is that the current marketing strategy is "no dealer markup" lol

I wonder how many of those are special orders that people backed out of.

 

[f12517]

I should have snapped a pic of the local GMC dealer on the way to the office. A few months ago, you were lucky to see 3-4 full size trucks and 5 or so mid size trucks on the lot. Now that dealership is stacked with trucks... can barely fit them all on the lot. What's funny is that the current marketing strategy is "no dealer markup" lol

And they'll be sitting on them for a long time....
I inquired with my local Ford dealer about ordering a 23 F150. Was told MSRP and a 6 month wait. Fuck that! In 6 months they won't be selling at MSRP. Used car market is already starting to crater. New car market will to in the coming months.

 

[bilz]

Had a fuk head roofer and a stucco guy call me back after 7 months. 3 months to late. Courtesy call would have been nice. No ill will but they're not the only game in town.

 

[bonesfab]

And they'll be sitting on them for a long time....
I inquired with my local Ford dealer about ordering a 23 F150. Was told MSRP and a 6 month wait. Fuck that! In 6 months they won't be selling at MSRP. Used car market is already starting to crater. New car market will to in the coming months.

Used car market is in for a world of hurt. Those 120-150% stacked loans are not going to age well.

 

[EmpirE231]

I wonder how many of those are special orders that people backed out of.

I'm sure quite a few.... with gas prices the way they are, and interest rates etc etc.

I drive by everyday on my way to work, so it was interesting to see overtime.... a few trucks would show up, gone 2-3 days later. Then one week, there were 4... that didn't move, then 4 more, and 4 more etc etc. If there was such pent up "demand" and strong economy and we are just dealing with supply chain crunches as some suggest.... that dealer shouldn't have any inventory building up at all

 

[hallett21]

Used car market is in for a world of hurt. Those 120-150% stacked loans are not going to age well.

It’ll be interesting to see how that pans out.

On one hand you’ll be extremely upside down “equity” wise but you still need a set of wheels.

If you can’t sell it for what you owe are you really gonna bring more money to the table to get out?

Or you stop paying and let it get repod but then your credit is screwed and you can’t qualify to go buy a new car.

 

[hallett21]

I'm sure quite a few.... with gas prices the way they are, and interest rates etc etc.

I drive by everyday on my way to work, so it was interesting to see overtime.... a few trucks would show up, gone 2-3 days later. Then one week, there were 4... that didn't move, then 4 more, and 4 more etc etc. If there was such pent up "demand" and strong economy and we are just dealing with supply chain crunches as some suggest.... that dealer shouldn't have any inventory building up at all

My issue is that I haven’t seen the truck I want on a lot. Ford or Ram 1 ton SRW with crew cab and 8ft bed.

Actually I’ve seen 1 or 2 but they want 10k over sticker lol.

I do see CC short bed 3/4 tons from time to time. But same deal they want 5k+ over sticker.

 

[Done-it-again]

And they'll be sitting on them for a long time....
I inquired with my local Ford dealer about ordering a 23 F150. Was told MSRP and a 6 month wait. Fuck that! In 6 months they won't be selling at MSRP. Used car market is already starting to crater. New car market will to in the coming months.

I wonder if the GMC dealers who wanted 5k over msrp for a denali ulitmate yukon will call me back when I told them I wont pay a premium and they hang up on me.....
bastards....

 

[530RL]

Long ways to go on Auto Inventory.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

It’ll be interesting to see how that pans out.

On one hand you’ll be extremely upside down “equity” wise but you still need a set of wheels.

If you can’t sell it for what you owe are you really gonna bring more money to the table to get out?

Or you stop paying and let it get repod but then your credit is screwed and you can’t qualify to go buy a new car.

Their payment is not going up but these people will do exactly what they did with houses... walk away.... only after they lose their ability to pay.


They will then buy some cheaper used car.

 

[n2otoofast4u]

The
Sky
Is
Falling

Can we find a new book to read? Fack people its been so fkn inflated for so long things have to come back to planet earth a bit. Things relaxing isn't reason to sound the alarm that we have another 08' on our hands. Things are MUCH different.

 

[FROGMAN524]

I wonder how many of those are special orders that people backed out of.

My local Chevrolet dealer I buy all of my company and personal trucks through is still only getting in "sold inventory" meaning special orders. There is nothing on the lot for anyone to buy unless someone backed out, and so far, that's zero trucks at the moment. Could change but GM is still way behind with constraints due to supply shortages.

 

[NicPaus]

Still waiting on the city to approve a few projects. Over a year on some since submitted to plan check. It's slowing down but that is to be expected with interest rates. It was crazy last 5 years. Had to pass up more work than we did.

 

[hallett21]

The
Sky
Is
Falling

Can we find a new book to read? Fack people its been so fkn inflated for so long things have to come back to planet earth a bit. Things relaxing isn't reason to sound the alarm that we have another 08' on our hands. Things are MUCH different.

I swear people are gonna will a meltdown lol.

 

[FROGMAN524]

I wonder if the GMC dealers who wanted 5k over msrp for a denali ulitmate yukon will call me back when I told them I wont pay a premium and they hang up on me.....
bastards....

Van GMC in Scottsdale, who I've ordered/bought a truck from before, wanted $12,500 over sticker on a Yukon XL Denali for my wife. I flipped them the finger and ordered/bought a new Suburban under sticker at Courtesy Chevrolet in Phoenix from my guy OJ Vanegas. He's the man if you need a truck in the valley. NO B.S.

 

[RVR SWPR]

Seems biden has arrived Lake Havasu City. Huge Circus tent set up yesterday North end of town @ RV sales .

 

[just_floatin]

C’mon Glen…everything is going to be fine

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1582443115599712256

 

[EmpirE231]

It’ll be interesting to see how that pans out.

On one hand you’ll be extremely upside down “equity” wise but you still need a set of wheels.

If you can’t sell it for what you owe are you really gonna bring more money to the table to get out?

Or you stop paying and let it get repod but then your credit is screwed and you can’t qualify to go buy a new car.

this situation is how companies like ugly duckling car sales came about etc.

sell basic $7-$12k cars to customers with bad credit @ 24.99% rates

 

[hallett21]

this situation is how companies like ugly duckling car sales came about etc.

sell basic $7-$12k cars to customers with bad credit @ 24.99% rates

Now the basic cars are 25k lol

 

[hallett21]

Bare bones Kia before sales tax lol

 

[EmpirE231]

Now the basic cars are 25k lol

we're talking 10YO nissan altimas @ 24.99%

 

[HBCraig]

Not slowing down for me yet in my business (large mobile cranes).

If we could build them faster I could sell another 5 to 10 easy. We have actually raised prices because some of our component suppliers have raised prices.
We are crazy busy.

 

[RiverDave]

it was setup over the weekend.. its an actual circus tho lol

They don’t have any promotion in town and it wasn’t open last weekend?

 

[brgrcru]

We haven’t locked in any birds for our Families house. Few inquiries but nothing else.

V

Do you need to be vaccinated to go to Canada?

Yes
Tried to go mouthing biking in Whistler
Last month
No vax no entrada

 

[Ace in the Hole]

I was at one of the valley power sports dealers this weekend... they had new RZR's (including Pro etc) for a substantial discount on MSRP. They had what seemed like a pile of inventory...I thought there was some shortage on these things the last few months? If we weren't hell bent on new snowmobiles this year I would have considered buying the 2 seat pro they had on the floor. Dirtbikes etc were also discounted which is why we were there looking for a 50.

Our work is busy as ever....problem im seeing in our industry is major companies having financial issues, and defaults are on the rise.

 

[Fastdadtsmith]

They don’t have any promotion in town and it wasn’t open last weekend?

One of my guys went Friday night. Didn't look all that bad from his slit phone recording.

 

[02HoWaRd26]

First time in two years the boards have been cut three checks in a row (every two weeks) on the railroad out of Needles. It’s visually a lot slower than we’ve been seeing.

 

[rrrr]

When real estate slows, construction is usually a year out from slowing. From the numbers that I review, real estate just started slowing enough to be substantial. I'm sorry to say it, but the residential construction will probably feel it third quarter next year. The construction firms that get the government contracts for schools, buildings, hospitals should be decent for the next 3 years or so. Slower, but decent.

My prediction was to see real estate pricing returning to 2020 levels which, pending on the numbers you review, we are still quite far from. However, some of the areas that received a huge number of Californian's moving to those areas have shown a small amount of sales getting closer to those 2020 numbers.

I heard the car industry has seen the inventory increase from 30 days of inventory to 45 days presently and are expecting 60 days by year end.

I just wonder how bad it will get. I don't think we will see the big layoffs until after the elections. At that time, we will have more data to predict more accurately.

A few days ago the chief economist for NHBA said he thinks the industry is in recession.

 

[rrrr]

2 weeks until the elections. Libs are going to prop up things the best they can. That's why Biden is dumping another 15 million barrels out of the US strategic reserves. Brilliant make America more vulnerable with diminished reserves for your gain.

I have to tell the rest of the story. The White House said Biden will refill the SPR to make up the 180 million barrels he gave away when prices decline to $67-$72 a barrel. He also intends to make those that sell the oil for refilling the SPR do so under a fixed futures method, guaranteeing a set price.

I busted out laughing when I read it. Joe's not the only idiot in Washington. He's getting help.

 

[rrrr]

Things are MUCH different.

Yeah, it's different all right. Joe Biden and the Democrats have seen to that.

 

[JFMFG]

So what I am reading is 90% of everyone in different industries has seen the slow down occur. Does this mean this isn’t the 1000th sky if falling thread? Is there truth to this one? I by no means am looking forward to a recession who would. But I also know it’s a cycle. There is nothing we can do except be smart play it safe and hold on.

 

[welldigger00]

I picked up an excavator from pier F in Long Beach, destined to Sacramento Volvo dealership. The port was empty. Three pieces of equipment on the loading deck. Normally it’s several dozen pieces. The clerk said it is unusually slow right now…

 

[bbrownster]

Van GMC in Scottsdale, who I've ordered/bought a truck from before, wanted $12,500 over sticker on a Yukon XL Denali for my wife. I flipped them the finger and ordered/bought a new Suburban under sticker at Courtesy Chevrolet in Phoenix from my guy OJ Vanegas. He's the man if you need a truck in the valley. NO B.S.

Can you get a Suburban with the Denali motor? We tow and love the larger motor.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

I'm glad I left the construction business, even more so to be out of the Off-Road industry.

 

[HB2Havasu]

Just saw on Fox 11 that Bloomberg says 100% chance we will be in a recession in 12 months

We have already been in a Recession. (2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP)

I keep hearing alot of Snow Birds arent coming this year. Economy and Fuel prices.

Yeah Fuel Prices and being worried that Fidel Jr. will lock them out of there own country when Covid-23 hits next spring.