wash11
Off The Grid
- Joined
- Jan 24, 2011
- Messages
- 2,609
- Reaction score
- 8,021
First, you gotta know that I'm 100% for the shock and awe campaign our President is throwing at a seriously broken system. If our kids are to stand a chance, it won't be without a little pain on us.
As for the beef reality, here's some info to chew on to clear up some of the misinformation in the news that people forward to me on the regular:
Tariffs:
Brazil is the big player on beef for the US (and the world). They already have tariffs in place of 26.4% on beef entering the US. The "Sky is falling" crowd is dead wrong when they say Trump will drive beef prices up 25% or more with new tariffs. This is NOT likely to drive prices up.
Farmers and ranchers burn through a lot of consumables from places like Tractor Supply, Cal Ranch, Harbor Freight etc. All that shit comes from China sadly. This WILL drive prices up.
I'm not informed enough to speak to how Canadian and Mexican exports might affect this equation as my feed sources are fairly localized. Like any commodity though- supply/demand and nationwide pricing will affect my local pricing. This COULD drive prices up.
Droughts:
We're kinda fucked here. Cow/calf operations are at their lowest stocking rate in 75 years. This winter has been dry as a popcorn fart in the West and zero ranchers are trying to build herds right now. The price I'm paying for quality yearlings to feed out was unimaginable a few years ago. This has already affected prices and will continue for at least two years. For a small but well-established outfit like ours- there's no shortage of quality yearlings available to me, they just cost more these days.
California wildfires:
Fuck me- didn't see that one coming. About eight years ago we got plugged into a tight group of folks in the movie industry. That's grown organically through word of mouth to friends, neighbors and colleagues over the years. Within a week's time it became apparent just how many of those folks lived in the affected areas. Cancelations of regular, annual beef orders hit us like a freight train. Live animals with butcher appointments scheduled 6 months in advance don't have the luxury of flexibility. As if the beef world wasn't stressful enough
.
The good:
Our customers aren't running out of beef anytime soon. Pricing looks to remain stable at least 60 days out at $1595 per 1/4. Wait times are close to nonexistent with the canceled orders due to the fires.
The bad:
Historically, I'm about 50/50 on my predictions so take this post for what it's worth. I think we're in for a bumpy ride with all the changes in policy from 47 and it's hard to know how markets will react. All things point to increase costs across the board for a while.
If you have the freezer space, hedging against the coming year is a no brainer. I'm taking orders for late February and March now with deliveries planned for Havasu, Bullhead, Kingman, Phoenix, Vegas and Fontana.
Call or text me with questions 928-486-4043 Joel
As for the beef reality, here's some info to chew on to clear up some of the misinformation in the news that people forward to me on the regular:
Tariffs:
Brazil is the big player on beef for the US (and the world). They already have tariffs in place of 26.4% on beef entering the US. The "Sky is falling" crowd is dead wrong when they say Trump will drive beef prices up 25% or more with new tariffs. This is NOT likely to drive prices up.
Farmers and ranchers burn through a lot of consumables from places like Tractor Supply, Cal Ranch, Harbor Freight etc. All that shit comes from China sadly. This WILL drive prices up.
I'm not informed enough to speak to how Canadian and Mexican exports might affect this equation as my feed sources are fairly localized. Like any commodity though- supply/demand and nationwide pricing will affect my local pricing. This COULD drive prices up.
Droughts:
We're kinda fucked here. Cow/calf operations are at their lowest stocking rate in 75 years. This winter has been dry as a popcorn fart in the West and zero ranchers are trying to build herds right now. The price I'm paying for quality yearlings to feed out was unimaginable a few years ago. This has already affected prices and will continue for at least two years. For a small but well-established outfit like ours- there's no shortage of quality yearlings available to me, they just cost more these days.
California wildfires:
Fuck me- didn't see that one coming. About eight years ago we got plugged into a tight group of folks in the movie industry. That's grown organically through word of mouth to friends, neighbors and colleagues over the years. Within a week's time it became apparent just how many of those folks lived in the affected areas. Cancelations of regular, annual beef orders hit us like a freight train. Live animals with butcher appointments scheduled 6 months in advance don't have the luxury of flexibility. As if the beef world wasn't stressful enough
.The good:
Our customers aren't running out of beef anytime soon. Pricing looks to remain stable at least 60 days out at $1595 per 1/4. Wait times are close to nonexistent with the canceled orders due to the fires.
The bad:
Historically, I'm about 50/50 on my predictions so take this post for what it's worth. I think we're in for a bumpy ride with all the changes in policy from 47 and it's hard to know how markets will react. All things point to increase costs across the board for a while.
If you have the freezer space, hedging against the coming year is a no brainer. I'm taking orders for late February and March now with deliveries planned for Havasu, Bullhead, Kingman, Phoenix, Vegas and Fontana.
Call or text me with questions 928-486-4043 Joel
