Surging Home Values

[NorCalRiverRat]

is anyone surprised Idaho on top and Hawaii on the bottom ?

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

No not at all. When an island state pretty much locks you out from moving there over the last 18 months and locks you down while there, why would demand for houses rise?

 

[boatpi]

Las Vegas was 21%!

 

[liquid addiction]

My CA Central Valley house went down over $20,000 (4.3%) in the last month.

 

[TCHB]

Let’s talk in 6 months.

 

[Don Johnson]

Glad we bought in Idaho a while ago.....The land we bought in Sandpoint has more then doubled and I get letters from potential buyers all the time.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Let’s talk in 6 months.

 

[HNL2LHC]

Maybe prices in Hawaii didn’t go up much but it certainly not a bargain or dropping just yet.

91-2035 Pahuhu Pl

For Sale : 91-2035 Pahuhu Pl Ewa Beach, HI 96706 : 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, 1,446 sq. ft. - Welcome home to Sun Terra’s single level (Rarely Available) 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, with a 2 car garage and a driveway. Featuring upgraded kitchen cabinets, countertops, Stainless Steel appliances, including a...

propertysearch.hicentral.com

 

[HALLETT BOY]

View attachment 1048961

The Shit is gonna hit the proverbial fan !

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

The Shit is gonna hit the proverbial fan !

 

[Bobby V]

Glad we bought in Idaho a while ago.....The land we bought in Sandpoint has more then doubled and I get letters from potential buyers all the time.

How much have new home building costs gone up.

 

[Gramps]

all of a sudden prices are going south in my area........down 10% - 15% in the last couple of weeks

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

all of a sudden prices are going south in my area........down 10% - 15% in the last couple of weeks

St George/south UT? I've been nothing that. I think it is the panic buying receding.

 

[Ace in the Hole]

No not at all. When an island state pretty much locks you out from moving there over the last 18 months and locks you down while there, why would demand for houses rise?

I doubt that those numbers are accurate for Hawaii...they must be doing state wide not Oahu only. Big island etc is stable but small numbers... Oahu is doing double digit increases and a SFH is now over a million average. https://www.locationshawaii.com/learn/market-reports/oahu-real-estate-report/

Last year this month was $844,750 average... Today is $1,050,000. Thats not in line with that chart.

A ton of people left hawaii over the last year...mostly my generation. The foreign buyers (read as Chinese/korean/Japanese) buy everything they can get a hold of....over market. Id have to google it but the stat is like 70% of new sales are not residents of the state of hawaii.

two of my cousins moved to the big island in 2021....hard to justify Oahu when they can buy a 3/2 on 5 acres under 300..

 

[EmpirE231]

all of a sudden prices are going south in my area........down 10% - 15% in the last couple of weeks

what area?

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I doubt that those numbers are accurate for Hawaii...they must be doing state wide not Oahu only. Big island etc is stable but small numbers... Oahu is doing double digit increases and a SFH is now over a million average. https://www.locationshawaii.com/learn/market-reports/oahu-real-estate-report/

Last year this month was $844,750 average... Today is $1,050,000. Thats not in line with that chart.

A ton of people left hawaii over the last year...mostly my generation. The foreign buyers (read as Chinese/korean/Japanese) buy everything they can get a hold of....over market. Id have to google it but the stat is like 70% of new sales are not residents of the state of hawaii.

two of my cousins moved to the big island in 2021....hard to justify Oahu when they can buy a 3/2 on 5 acres under 300..

Agreed, the popular areas of everywhere are up higher than the state averages. Boise ID is up over 40%.

 

[TCHB]

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Inventories going up as we speak, affordability index very low, price reductions starting to hit as homes staying on the market longer. The time line is different in the US but I think it will drop 15 to 20%. In May Havasu had around 47 homes for sale with zero price reductions. Now it is in the hundreds with price reductions all over the place.

 

[TCHB]

is anyone surprised Idaho on top and Hawaii on the bottom ?

View attachment 1048951

keep your eye on this state. It was one states that jumped up and now is seeing inventory going straight up with price reductions. I think the rest of the country that went up quickly will follow Boise.

 

[Gramps]

what area?

north of ST Gouge...........up SR18, town called Central

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Inventories going up as we speak, affordability index very low, price reductions starting to hit as homes staying on the market longer. The time line is different in the US but I think it will drop 15 to 20%. In May Havasu had around 47 homes for sale with zero price reductions. Now it is in the hundreds with price reductions all over the place.

Happens every year at this time, nothing new. Tons of buyers out there that just got fatigued with multiple offer situations. So 15% - 20% (which is highly unlikely)....Just brings prices back to 2020 prices.

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[185EZ]

St George/south UT? I've been nothing that. I think it is the panic buying receding.

and getting priced out of the market
we were close to pulling the plug on our recent purchase but we had the resources and said you only live once
a lot of people can't afford the real estate market now

 

[Gonefishin5555]

The market is just taking a breather. Inflation, Cheap money and people with a shit ton of equity in their primary residence will keep the ball rolling. I don't think all sellers are serious. Some are listing their places for prices that they say if some idiot will give me this much I will sell and I think some of those deals won't happen now.

 

[riverroyal]

Nothing is happening in 6 months. Beginning of summer, houses will still be selling a still not going down .
New home builds are 6 months out to get material.

Social media can change the market and everyone thinks they are a expert

 

[2Driver]

St George/south UT? I've been nothing that. I think it is the panic buying receding.

And the new Cali transplants realizing it’s hotter than Phoenix in summer and colder and more windy than Nevada in winter

 

[HB2Havasu]

Inventories going up as we speak, affordability index very low, price reductions starting to hit as homes staying on the market longer. The time line is different in the US but I think it will drop 15 to 20%. In May Havasu had around 47 homes for sale with zero price reductions. Now it is in the hundreds with price reductions all over the place.

That is more the Havasu “average” than a glut of inventory, lol.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

That is more the Havasu “average” than a glut of inventory, lol.

Exactly.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

[emoji41][emoji41]

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[FROGMAN524]

Heres an example of Phoenix appreciation lately

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[riverroyal]

$266 a sq ft is still a good price when you consider coastal San Diego is 500 to 800.
biggest issue is most houses like this are too big for the people leaving SoCal

 

[Don Johnson]

How much have new home building costs gone up.

a lot. We are just now finishing the grading and tree removal on our lots to be ready to start building in April 2022. Our current bid has us at $440 a sq ft for the main home, $250 a sq ft for the ADU and $150 a sq ft for the shop. Hoping it comes down a little between now and April but if not oh well, nothing is stopping us from making this move.

 

[Looking Glass]

[emoji41][emoji41] View attachment 1049070

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Then!

On the "Other Side"

Everything Is Just Fine, just a little "Correction"

Is that an Echo from the last Bump in the road?

When you are "All In" what else can you do? Keep Positive.

 

[stokerwhore]

Heres an example of Phoenix appreciation lately

View attachment 1049115
View attachment 1049116


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the market value is up 10% just over last month. that's a conservative example. it's kinda pissing me off lol. In CA my current home is down 2% last month again. we're looking to move anyway. i'm done.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Then!

On the "Other Side"

Everything Is Just Fine, just a little "Correction"

Is that an Echo from the last Bump in the road?

When you are "All In" what else can you do? Keep Positive.

House prices go up and down. Look at post 28. While people have been waiting for a crash the last 4 years, housing in many areas has doubled. We could have a 20% drop and be back 2019 prices, when people were complaining housing was too expensive and we were on the brink of a crash .

 

[Sportin' Wood]

I have been watching North Idaho for the last year. Not a crash, but a flattening of he curve right now. Property is not disappearing at a lightning pace. That being said IMHO they still have a shortage of inventory and it is Fall. I have a half dozen properties I am watching, they are all priced way too high, they are not selling.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I have been watching North Idaho for the last year. Not a crash, but a flattening of he curve right now. Property is not disappearing at a lightning pace. That being said IMHO they still have a shortage of inventory and it is Fall. I have a half dozen properties I am watching, they are all priced way too high, they are not selling.

House across the street is overpriced and been on the market 60 days. It is owned by Zillow.

 

[pronstar]

I’m curious to hear what folks think is going to cause a crash or major correction?

Low interest rates means home monthly payments are still historically affordable.

Demand far outstrips supply.

Home builders can’t come close to closing the supply gap.

Most homes in forbearance have equity.
Worst case, these homes are sold at market prices.

If 100% of homes in forbearance (1.75 million) hit the market, there would still be a supply shortage.

IMHO, the main realistic possibility that will cause a major correction, is rising interest rates…which would also crush the global economy.


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[Done-it-again]

a lot. We are just now finishing the grading and tree removal on our lots to be ready to start building in April 2022. Our current bid has us at $440 a sq ft for the main home, $250 a sq ft for the ADU and $150 a sq ft for the shop. Hoping it comes down a little between now and April but if not oh well, nothing is stopping us from making this move.

Those prices including the land? Damn $440 sq ft.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I’m curious to hear what folks think is going to cause a crash or major correction?

Low interest rates means home monthly payments are still historically affordable.

Demand far outstrips supply.

Home builders can’t come close to closing the supply gap.

Most homes in forbearance have equity.
Worst case, these homes are sold at market prices.

If 100% of homes in forbearance (1.75 million) hit the market, there would still be a supply shortage.

IMHO, the main realistic possibility that will cause a major correction, is rising interest rates…which would also crush the global economy.


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Don’t bring your facts here. The gubmint is printing that money and in 6 months housing is gonna drop 80% randomly one day when you wake up.

 

[FROGMAN524]

Check this shit out. Just got an email last week from Pulte for homes in San tan valley.

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[mobldj]

daughter just bought a still being built house in banning for 390,000.1700 square feet with decent size yard but packed in close to houses left and right...............but its banning.lol

 

[Xtrmwakeboarder]

Down the street from my buddy in an area that I wouldn’t say is very nice. I was cracking up.

 

[CLdrinker]

Never heard a salesman say it’s a bad time to buy.

I wonder if that has anything to do with their paycheck?

 

[Cdog]

Check this shit out. Just got an email last week from Pulte for homes in San tan valley.

View attachment 1049119


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Their pricing is very close to Toll bro's Sereno Canyon properties only............You're in Scottsdale! HAHAHAHA!

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Never heard a salesman say it’s a bad time to buy.

I wonder if that has anything to do with their paycheck?

Never heard them say its a bad time to sell either..

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Those prices including the land? Damn $440 sq ft.

We sold in Reno for $444 in June. We paid $147 seven years ago.

 

[Cdog]

The out flow of SoCal people is still happening in mass. Three families from the Temecula area that we camp with when we do Silverstrand trips are moving to Texas and Idaho right now. One is a former Demo seal team guy and the others are in LE. Sad to see them go but happy to see them happy and looking forward to their new found life in free America.

I think we have finally reached a point where the "good weather " doenst cut it anymore. While CA will always be an expensive place I think it's lost its allure for most traditional values Americans.

Peak boomer migration and retirement happens in 2024. They have money and assets to buy what they want at any price. The biggest variable I see is the Cap gains tax pedo joe is proposing. It's possible people will have a lot less than what they think they will net if his cap gains tax goes through.

 

[Cdog]

For the doubters.

Biden's Top Marginal Capital Gains Tax Rate Would Be Highest in OECD

President Biden’s proposal to tax capital gains at higher, ordinary income tax rates would lead the U.S. to have the highest top marginal tax rate on capital gains in the OECD.

taxfoundation.org

 

[CLdrinker]

Never heard them say its a bad time to sell either..

Right?

It’s almost like you shouldn’t listen to them.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Right?

It’s almost like you shouldn’t listen to them.

You also shouldn't keep your head in the sand if you are worried about such things. The housing market does not fall apart unless the fundamentals fall apart.

 

[Cdog]

Right?

It’s almost like you shouldn’t listen to them.

I back my comments with facts and statistics that support my argument.

It's not my fault 90% of you will fall for tits in a skirt sales lady that doesn't know her ass from a hole in a ground that up sells you on a house in BFE that you over paid for. I sure she appreciates it.