Real estate speculation areas?

[whiteworks]

Zoom out a bit, what’s the big picture picks for long term RE investing locations, unimproved larger property’s preferred. I’m looking for some long term picks that may make no sense today, but my kid and grandkids will be stoked that I made a move on.

There is a lot of undeveloped property out by apple valley airport that has caught my eye. It’s a big county run airport and IMO has long term potential to be a major logistics hub for the high desert. I remember driving out the river as a kid, not a damn thing except for some Joshua trees and the Roy Roger’s museum in the high desert. Now there is like 500,000 people out there, seems to me there is going to be exponential growth out there over the next 30 years.

I’m hearing a buzz about places like thermal and Joshua tree, started hearing about people purchasing large tracts of land out there 10 years ago. One of my buddies is tied up in the thermal beach club, pretty insane wave park luxury development, I’ll put a link at the bottom. Crazy people will always figure out some stuff, the technology we have today makes once undesirable areas quite desirable.

I don’t know if there is any truth to this, but I heard the Hofer Ranch property adjacent to Ontario international airport made a deal to get a small piece of every package that came through UPS when they sold, may just be urban legend, who knows. All the old school ag families in the region have secured or are looking for land lease warehouse development deals, the gift that keeps on giving. It’s no longer a place I recognize as home.

These are observations I’ve made where I’m from, this place is pretty played out, I’d prefer to start fresh some other place that’s 75 years behind the development here, open to USA and modern western society’s abroad.

What’s your pick?

Thermal Beach Club

Thermal Beach Club is a private luxury development set amidst a 20-acre clear blue lagoon in Coachella Valley.

www.thermalbeachclub.com

 

[rivermobster]

No, make that

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Hats. Just buy hats.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

Silverado canyon. They are gonna build on that land eventually.... Good elevation for when sea levels rise lol.

 

[Boatymcboatface]

I’ve got a couple areas I’ve been looking at and wouldn’t consider anywhere that doesn’t have well/water rights.

 

[whiteworks]

This is a sample of the apple valley airport commercial, shit ton of open land and a few big box warehouses in place next to a runway. This one is price drop of $67k recently, I’m sure there will be plenty more price drops to come out there as we come off this last cycle.

463361 Six Navajo Rd, Apple Valley, CA 92307 | Zillow

463361 Six Navajo Rd, Apple Valley CA. The Rent Zestimate for this property is $1,835/mo, which has increased by $1,835/mo in the last 30 days.

www.zillow.com

 

[Havasu Rehab]

These properties could be a great investment IF the Salton Sea ever made a comeback.

 

[X Hoser]

View attachment 1207974

These properties could be a great investment IF the Salton Sea ever made a comeback.

I’ve heard talk of a large Lithium Deposit in the Salton Sea. No idea I fit is true or not? For years they have talked about “Saving the Salton Sea”. Maybe one day it will happen?

 

[yz450mm]

This is a sample of the apple valley airport commercial, shit ton of open land and a few big box warehouses in place next to a runway. This one is price drop of $67k recently, I’m sure there will be plenty more price drops to come out there as we come off this last cycle.

463361 Six Navajo Rd, Apple Valley, CA 92307 | Zillow

463361 Six Navajo Rd, Apple Valley CA. The Rent Zestimate for this property is $1,835/mo, which has increased by $1,835/mo in the last 30 days.

www.zillow.com

I seriously doubt Apple Valley Airport will be anything other than a private and learning airport, because SCLA is a few minutes away. But if the train comes through and has a stop at Dale Evans Pkwy, there's going to be opportunities out there to service people that make the trip up from down the hill to catch the train.

 

[stillhustlin]

Beaver Utah, located on a major interstate and is close to recreational activities.

 

[Tank]

Out of ca I would say.

 

[wzuber]

Beaver Utah, located on a major interstate and is close to recreational activities.

Yep, and only 2hr drive to downtown SLC. it's a nice little rural agricultural town currently. They do have a water supply isue to deal with though. The chinese have bought up a bunch of land/farms etc out there. Utah in general is exploding and has been for the last 15yrs.

 

[Roosky01]

Detroit or Chicago proper.

 

[motormonkey]

Let me have the money. It won't make sense now, but your kids and grand kids will understand .

 

[whiteworks]

View attachment 1207976
I seriously doubt Apple Valley Airport will be anything other than a private and learning airport, because SCLA is a few minutes away. But if the train comes through and has a stop at Dale Evans Pkwy, there's going to be opportunities out there to service people that make the trip up from down the hill to catch the train.

Those big logistics centers out by the airport now all by themselves won’t always be by themselves. $150k an acre for smaller pieces is pricey considering there is a whole desert full of dirt out there. But I think that area will pop off hard over the next 20-30 years. Not looking to catch a falling knife out there, but when it bottoms out that may be a place to look at closely is my thought.

 

[whiteworks]

Beaver Utah, located on a major interstate and is close to recreational activities.

Doing some homework on beaver now, looks like a nice little ag community.

 

[DC-88]

Outskirts of Phoenix seem like they will all be connected in the next 75 years or so, and it's grown so much since we lived there when I was a kid. I like the North end better, but some land on the outskirts in any direction could be a good long shot pick up at some point . Just a total random example at today's price linked here. I just picked up a couple receivership lots in Needles I 40 right at one of the offramps thinking possible nnn with / or for charging station only. Still waiting to hear back from electrify America lol .

0 W Val Vista Blvd, Casa Grande, AZ 85122 | Zillow

0 W Val Vista Blvd, Casa Grande AZ, is a Vacant Land home.This home last sold for $500,000 in March 2024. The Rent Zestimate for this Vacant Land is $1,888/mo, which has increased by $1,888/mo in the last 30 days.

www.zillow.com

 

[LuauLounge]

With the way the state, county and city now dictate what gets built, when and where, I'd be concerned with purchasing a long term single commercial lot for investment purposes. Additionally, with the taxes, insurance and maintenance, in California, you are at 2% + annual expenses, and rising, of your purchase price with no income. There's also a +-10% exit fee (RE commission, title, etc) when sold.
Take that $279K, add 2% yearly, find 5% return and at the end of 20 years you've got nearly $1M.

 

[whiteworks]

Outskirts of Phoenix seem like they will all be connected in the next 75 years or so, and it's grown so much since we lived there when I was a kid. I like the North end better, but some land on the outskirts in any direction could be a good long shot pick up at some point . Just a total random example at today's price linked here. I just picked up a couple receivership lots in Needles I 40 right at one of the offramps thinking possible nnn with / or for charging station only. Still waiting to hear back from electrify America lol .

0 W Val Vista Blvd, Casa Grande, AZ 85122 | Zillow

0 W Val Vista Blvd, Casa Grande AZ, is a Vacant Land home.This home last sold for $500,000 in March 2024. The Rent Zestimate for this Vacant Land is $1,888/mo, which has increased by $1,888/mo in the last 30 days.

www.zillow.com

Where did you pick up the receivership property’s? I’ve dabbled in county tax sales with some success in the past. Definitely a dirty little area of the RE game, but super fun to play in that space when you figure out some stuff. Real easy to proper fuck yourself buying up some property with major unknown liability

 

[whiteworks]

With the way the state, county and city now dictate what gets built, when and where, I'd be concerned with purchasing a long term single commercial lot for investment purposes. Additionally, with the taxes, insurance and maintenance, in California, you are at 2% + annual expenses, and rising, of your purchase price with no income. There's also a +-10% exit fee (RE commission, title, etc) when sold.
Take that $279K, add 2% yearly, find 5% return and at the end of 20 years you've got nearly $1M.

I like the tangible aspect of RE, I believe there is generational security to be created with land ownership. Identifying good pieces of land is the puzzle, paying taxes on property that has no future is not smart LOL

 

[whiteworks]

Totally / These were tax lien sale in Needles, but yes due diligence is key for sure . One has more $ in newer curb/gutter/ sidewalk/ approaches around it than it cost to buy, not that that means anything currently but the location could be sort of "prime" in the long run.... or not

I put together a portfolio for the last auction of 8 properties, did some of my own evaluation on them and got blown out of the water by 2x on all of them when the auctions closed LOL No idea what people were seeing that I wasn’t, but I kinda feel like the slots were still loose last year and it was coupled with FOMO. I’m waiting for next list to drop and see if anything catches my eye. Do you know who put the curb and gutter in on your pieces?

 

[Vib]

Personally we found great value with the RV park land near Hanksville Utah. In the last 2.5 years raw land around here has gone up approximately 5x. The downside is other than recreation there is NOTHING out here.
I like it, but having to drive 100 miles to the nearest Home Depot is a PITA.

 

[gqchris]

With the way the state, county and city now dictate what gets built, when and where, I'd be concerned with purchasing a long term single commercial lot for investment purposes. Additionally, with the taxes, insurance and maintenance, in California, you are at 2% + annual expenses, and rising, of your purchase price with no income. There's also a +-10% exit fee (RE commission, title, etc) when sold.
Take that $279K, add 2% yearly, find 5% return and at the end of 20 years you've got nearly $1M.

My buddy was all dialed in to buy land off stoddard wells road, and called Apple Valley City, long story short like you said, they have all these stipulations on new builds and right next door to you is a shantee shack with a junkyard in it. It sucks the appeal out of a little offroad hideout and makes no sense once they get involved.

 

[Havoc Powesports]

Have 165+- acres for 14 mill in Bartonville, Texas. If you develop it out (2-acre-5-acre residential lots) the lots will sell between 450k-800k. gonna take a small nut to cut roads (concrete curbless), water, and utilities. The waste would be an aerobic system. highly sought-after Argyle ISD. Will pay a buyer agent fee of 2%max if you bring one. Or can sit on it and watch it increase in price yearly. We are just ready for the next adventure!

 

[Racer56]

Outskirts of Phoenix seem like they will all be connected in the next 75 years or so, and it's grown so much since we lived there when I was a kid. I like the North end better, but some land on the outskirts in any direction could be a good long shot pick up at some point . Just a total random example at today's price linked here. I just picked up a couple receivership lots in Needles I 40 right at one of the offramps thinking possible nnn with / or for charging station only. Still waiting to hear back from electrify America lol .

0 W Val Vista Blvd, Casa Grande, AZ 85122 | Zillow

0 W Val Vista Blvd, Casa Grande AZ, is a Vacant Land home.This home last sold for $500,000 in March 2024. The Rent Zestimate for this Vacant Land is $1,888/mo, which has increased by $1,888/mo in the last 30 days.

www.zillow.com

I think Casa Grande would be a great investment for the future. There's a lot development going on and the larger parcels are very fairly priced.

 

[2Driver]

Buying on the outskirts in hopes to time the market is pretty risky. When a housing turn-down hits, it hits the outskirts extra hard maybe to point you can't find any buyer if you want some of your money back and want to get out of the holding costs. You may sit on it for years or a decade or more until the next cycle. On the other hand, if your timing is impeccable, you could cash in. Most people I know have at one point been burned lending or buying on the outskirts. Just my o2.

 

[DC-88]

Agree, and It's definitely way more dense than when we lived there. My Dad worked at one of the copper mines, and their dream was always to move to the coast of Ca. which did eventually happen. That always cracks me up in relation to the current " F Cali in its entirety " movement of today. I took my kids there 10 years ago or so , and to this Mexican restaurant we went to as kids called Ochoas but didn't see anything pulling me back ! Carefree or a big property on the N outskirt somewhere would probably the only place in that region for me -

I think Casa Grande would be a great investment for the future. There's a lot development going on and the larger parcels are very fairly priced.

 

[JDKRXW]

......, open to USA and modern western society’s abroad.

What’s your pick?

I'm guessing any suggestions in Mexico are going to be frowned on in this thread.

 

[Boatymcboatface]

I'm guessing any suggestions in Mexico are going to be frowned on in this thread.

Not if you’re willing to become a citizen and deal with the cartel. Lots of money to be made as a landlord/custodian of beachfront property.

 

[whiteworks]

Not if you’re willing to become a citizen and deal with the cartel. Lots of money to be made as a landlord/custodian of beachfront property.

I’m not doing anything in Mexico. My grandparents and their crew built stuff in Laguna persebu south of San Felipe in the 70’s, cool Little bungalows on the beach. Showed up one day and the caretaker they hired said he owned it all now and to kick rocks

That was that.

 

[Orange Juice]

Be sure what ever you buy, has access to water.

 

[Deckin Around]

don’t let it slip away

 

[whiteworks]

don’t let it slip away

View attachment 1208588

What in the hell would I do with 40 acres out there

 

[Not So Fast]

When we moved here in 2002 I could have bought almost any normal lot (like on my street for under $50K) and I thought about doing it but then I said no way will these lots be worth much more, should have bought at least a couple just for the hell of it. Street is now filled up with houses and the last lot I know of brought $150K, damn it
NSF

 

[I'd Groper]

What in the hell would I do with 40 acres out there

DUH !!! 10 fng days of KOH Bruh

 

[whiteworks]

DUH !!! 10 fng days of KOH Bruh

Around day 5 things start getting weird, bbqing ribs for breakfast becomes normal. There are a lot of people purchasing property out there and prices seem to be running up at a good clip. Seems most have their own vision of what to do out there, nothing comes cheap or easy in the desert half past nowhere. I can see the appeal of owning property out there though, the open space is quite stunning.

 

[I'd Groper]

Around day 5 things start getting weird, bbqing ribs for breakfast becomes normal. There are a lot of people purchasing property out there and prices seem to be running up at a good clip. Seems most have their own vision of what to do out there, nothing comes cheap or easy in the desert half past nowhere. I can see the appeal of owning property out there though, the open space is quite stunning.
View attachment 1208686 View attachment 1208687

I agree lol BUT the theft out there with unattended and even occupied properties is disturbing, there's no way I'd leave anything of value sitting in the Desert.
There other problem is, is how many times can you go and spend time at your property, with all the other activities we/most of us have (kids & life) too me it's hard to justify making the purchase.
Instead, I'll just pack up the MOHO and go visit these places for a few days, then come home and spend another 2 days cleaning the MOHO.

 

[whiteworks]

I agree lol BUT the theft out there with unattended and even occupied properties is disturbing, there's no way I'd leave anything of value sitting in the Desert.
There other problem is, is how many times can you go and spend time at your property, with all the other activities we/most of us have (kids & life) too me it's hard to justify making the purchase.
Instead, I'll just pack up the MOHO and go visit these places for a few days, then come home and spend another 2 days cleaning the MOHO.

Low hanging fruit will get picked. Anything built out there needs to be modeled after something you would see built in a park in Compton.

Lots of racers setting up shop out there, Wayne from all tech has a shop now where he does his guru suspension tuning. Lazertown, the 40, Cole Ranch, @Deckin Around and the Brenthals compound, are just a few who have staked a claim. It’s a cool neighborhood, but you gotta have grit.

 

[Deckin Around]

What in the hell would I do with 40 acres out there

Be my winter weekend neighbor. I am encouraging high price sales to keep the riff-raff out.

 

[sintax]

Be my winter weekend neighbor. I am encouraging high price sales to keep the riff-raff out.

Sounds good, i'll be moving in shortly.

I'll be having my hispanic friends from the south watch the property for me and tend my garden while i'm away.

 

[hallett21]

I like future commercial or industrial locations.

Barstow if BNSF really does their multi billion dollar upgrade.

Ludlow for potential EV charger build out

40/95 for EV charging, storage potential warehouse location

Desert center

 

[evantwheeler]

I imagine for the average joe, bare land purchases for investment purchase are made with what amounts to pocket change and hope for a huge pay out 30-40 years down the road? I don't have the lazy cash lying around to even begin to think about buying bare land. Seems like a huge gamble to tie up hundreds of thousands in bare land given the ownership costs and opportunity costs with what else could be done with that cash.

 

[CLdrinker]

My buddy was all dialed in to buy land off stoddard wells road, and called Apple Valley City, long story short like you said, they have all these stipulations on new builds and right next door to you is a shantee shack with a junkyard in it. It sucks the appeal out of a little offroad hideout and makes no sense once they get involved.

We shopped around with a builder in 2021. It was going to cost near 700k to build a 5bed 3 bath 1 office on a half a acre in Apple valley. Building permit numbers being thrown around were 40k.

I could only sell my 4bed 2 bath and 1 office for 450k. So 250k to gain 1 bed and bathroom was a hard pass.

 

[whiteworks]

Be my winter weekend neighbor. I am encouraging high price sales to keep the
riff-raff out.

Gee Josh, I dunno. A guy would have to like messing around with trophy trucks, ultra 4 cars, dirt bikes, sxs’s, helicopters and bush planes as well as drinking beer and bbqing with all his friends and family. On top of that I’m sure kids don’t like it out there at all, you know having BB guns and matches to play with and their own motorcycles with private tracks to ride them on with their pals that come over, or even worse when their folks make them ride over to there buddys places to ride with their kids on their tracks. While the adults drink beer and bbq. Seems iffy to me

I imagine for the average joe, bare land purchases for investment purchase are made with what amounts to pocket change and hope for a huge pay out 30-40 years down the road? I don't have the lazy cash lying around to even begin to think about buying bare land. Seems like a huge gamble to tie up hundreds of thousands in bare land given the ownership costs and opportunity costs with what else could be done with that cash.

We see people tie up hundreds of thousands in fancy fiberglass and high dollar engines in this place all day everyday l, think nothing of it and actually encourage it all those rigs end up rotting in a field at some point, might be nice to at least own the field it’s sitting on

I’m a big fan of tangible assets, while finance is extremely lucrative, as we’re seeing in real time assets can literally vaporize in minutes. You can’t eat gold, but you can grow crops in dirt, just my thoughts.

 

[pronstar]

I’d rather look at market fundamentals.

• Positive population growth.
• Good schools.
• Local amenities.

This gives a good “slow and steady wins the race” perspective.

I’m good hitting a bunch of singles and doubles.
I’m not so good hitting home runs.