Question for you economics majors.........

[ROC]

What do you see happening this coming Wednesday morning and beyond if the ceiling isn't raised?

Not looking for any political BS from anyone, but, I'd like to hear what the Economics majors predict for our country.

 

[spectra3279]

Even if they do, I dont see things getting better until O'sama is no longer in office.

 

[Mandelon]

Stock market drops around the world. Temporary of course, but will be a good buying opportunity for those of us smart enought to take advantage of it.

The world knows we won't really default.

 

[ROC]

Serious shit I guess.

So what's gonna be the immediate action with federal employees?
Military, IRS, ATC, Post office et al?

 

[yumaflyer]

Minor drop in the markets if any. I think most of the selloff has already happened though. The elected officials will pass some last minute deal only to kick the can down the road.... Just more of the same from that town.

 

[EpicOne]

Stock market drops around the world. Temporary of course, but will be a good buying opportunity for those of us smart enought to take advantage of it.

The world knows we won't really default.

Bingo. Make sure you buy just before the announcement. :champagne:

 

[Mandelon]

Just like in California, pay the bills with IOU's...

No doubt the fed has set up some temporary money sources.

Gold is pretty high...how much is sitting in Fort Knox?

The U.S. Department of Treasury claims that the Fort Knox gold vault contains 147.3 million troy ounces of gold.

 

[pronstar]

There is *zero* chance that the ceiling won't get raised.
There is *zero* chance that spending cuts will materialize as advertised.
There is *zero* chance that our taxes won't get raised.

 

[little rowe boat]

I see that the world powers/ the wealthiest nations in the world will eventually get together and decide to change the primary world currency from the Dollar to the Euro. Meaning that the dollar wont be worth the paper/cotton that it is printed on. Businesses will no longer accept the dollar.
This once great country will no longer be a world power economically.

 

[soupersonic]

Theres time, the real pressure is to get it done by September when all the payments are due. The problem is all the posturing by the "leaders" in DC.
Dems want a blank checkbook...status quo
GOP wants to look good for re election
Very few actually see the real problem
I dont think the US deserves a AAA credit rating until they can reign in spending

 

[Mandelon]

I see that the world powers/ the wealthiest nations in the world will eventually get together and decide to change the primary world currency from the Dollar to the Euro. Meaning that the dollar wont be worth the paper/cotton that it is printed on. Businesses will no longer accept the dollar.
This once great country will no longer be a world power economically.

I don't know if it will be the Euro....they are in worse financial shape than we are. Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Italy are all in real trouble. Germany can't bail them all out! The workforces are too socialistic and soft.

Its the Asian continent that will dominate trade in the future...if we don't get serious. They work 6 days a week.

 

[OutCole'd]

Stock market drops around the world. Temporary of course, but will be a good buying opportunity for those of us smart enought to take advantage of it.

The world knows we won't really default.

I agree with the temporary dip, but where is the place to put your cash during that dip? Stocks? Metals? Coke & whores?

 

[Mandelon]

Cash.

They will probably announce a last minute deal, and nothing really will happen. But....if they don't pass a bill, there could be some turmoil.

So cash out, or do nothing...and wait a few months. If there is a drop, it will be temporary.

It might cost you more in commisions to liquidate....I don't know what you have. But it might be wise to have a pile of cash ready to buy stocks on sale in case the politicians don't get it together.

If interest rates spike keep an eye on CD rates...some businesses will suffer from higher interest rates, like Vehicle manufacuturers, Real Estate Companies, and financing businesses....

 

[thetub]

There is *zero* chance that the ceiling won't get raised.
There is *zero* chance that spending cuts will materialize as advertised.
There is *zero* chance that our taxes won't get raised.

NO they are not going to raise taxes, but have "REVENUE EXPENDITURES" and "TAX EXPENDITURES"

these turds want to get rid of interest deduction write offs for interest paid on homes 401 k contributions and any other deductions made....


do not want to get off topic,but got an interesting email about 3.8% home sale tax dickhead wants to put on homes sold after 2012...friggen idiot.. read on.. talk about killing home sales even more..


3.8% Sales Tax for home sale after 2012

Call your Democratic Senator's Office to confirm this hidden fact about the Obama Care regulation.


Did you know that if you sell your house after 2012 you will pay a 3.8% sales tax on it? That's $3,800 on a $100,000 home.

When did this happen?It's in the health care bill.
Just thought you should know.
SALES TAX GOES INTO EFFECT 2013 (Part of HC Bill).

Why 2013?
Could it be to come to light AFTER the 2012 elections?
REAL ESTATE SALES TAX.
So, this is "change you can believe in"?

Under the new health care bill all real estate transactions will be subject to a 3.8% Sales Tax.

The bulk of these new taxes don't kick in until 2013 If you sell your $400,000 home, there will be a $15,200 tax.

This bill is set to effect the retiring generation who often downsize their homes.

Does this stuff make your November and 2012 vote more important? Oh, you weren't aware this was in the Obama care bill?
Guess what, you aren't alone.
There are more than a few members of Congress that aren't aware of it either

http://www.gop.gov/blog/10/04/08/obamacare-flatlin es-obamacare-taxes-home>

 

[Tom Brown]

My take is this is going to have a devastating effect on the US economy. It's already bad. What happens from here will determine how bad it's going to be.

I am expecting upward pressure on interest rates. That will be paired with high inflation.

People just barely hanging onto their houses will be shaken from the tree. There aren't nearly as many of those as their used to be but it will still be significant.

... so this is the likely the start of the inflationary period of a decade long economic recession we're about three years into now.

At this point, it's going to start hurting the north as much (or nearly) as the south.

After a decade of having our balls kicked off, maybe someone will figure out that we need to start making stuff here. It's hard to say. We aren't very smart. My working years are nearly over so I'm not as affected as the generations that follow me. It's a shame, really.

I could use a happy meal.

 

[thetub]

My take is this is going to have a devastating effect on the US economy. It's already bad. What happens from here will determine how bad it's going to be.

I am expecting upward pressure on interest rates. That will be paired with high inflation.

People just barely hanging onto their houses will be shaken from the tree. There aren't nearly as many of those as their used to be but it will still be significant.

... so this is the likely the start of the inflationary period of a decade long economic recession we're about three years into now.

At this point, it's going to start hurting the north as much (or nearly) as the south.

After a decade of having our balls kicked off, maybe someone will figure out that we need to start making stuff here. It's hard to say. We aren't very smart. My working years are nearly over so I'm not as affected as the generations that follow me. It's a shame, really.

I could use a happy meal.

sad to say it,but I also see a decade long battle like Japan style economy.I think it will be more of staggflation.As for interest rates going up,if the powers to be decide it so, then we are F__ed.

 

[Performance Boat Candy]

I see an opportunity in US Treasury bonds...not sure if my business school education qualifies me as an economics major...but it hasn't hurt me so far

 

[OutCole'd]

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2011/07...investments-to-hold-in-case-the-u-s-defaults/

 

[thetub]

Shit I would buy Apple Stock, it was reported they have more money than the federal government.

 

[TPC]

Even if they do, I dont see things getting better until O'sama is no longer in office.

There it is. :thumbsup
Look for the flat tax, and reduction in regulations to super charge the economy after the 2012 election.

Obama's something-for-nothing, welfare state programs will just drag us down more if he's re-elected.

Three more years of this and you'll see chaos and riots in the streets. But this time most watching the chaos and riots while eating moon pies and drinking Pepsi on TV will concur and support with the rioters.

Obama is the American version of the fuckballs that runs Venezuela and is on their death watch in Cuba.

Something for nothing gives everyone nothing for something,,, and it's finally starting to ring true,,,, and the reality will be violence.

 

[HolyMoly]

I'm betting that if they do fail to raise the debt ceiling, they won't default. I have heard/read some reports that the date of default is just an estimate, and the latest estimate shows it several more months down the road.

And it is not like they default on all the debt.

I expect to hear a lot more "sky is falling" "children will die" and continued name calling of the freshmen tea party congressmen as terrorists, hostage takers and etc.

To me...the louder they scream about the problems, the more things are actually working for the american public.

 

[mark49]

A extension will be granted, the price of oil will drop 2 bucks per barrel per day as it did last week, then when resolved the stock market will rebound... No winners in this civil war

 

[Racey]

IF the debt ceiling isn't raised it doesn't mean default. They still will be able to pay for the debt service, and social security and troops checks will still be paid. Interest rates will not change as the fed controls those in cahoots with the government and higher rates mean higher debt owed.

Bottom Line nothing bad will happen, what the politicians are playing is scare tactics against the people, neither one of them are doing anything to balance budget the biggest planned cuts that are on the table are cuts of 3% against the projected budget, which is higher than this years budget by more than that, so the cuts are actually increases. People will go on with their every day lives, and whatever government services shut down (if any), people will realize they aren't necessary anyway.

Remember the last government shutdown that happened over a budget stalemate resulted in the first budget surplus in decades under Clinton.

"If our government's debt is our problem then how is more debt the solution?"

 

[caribbean20]

Priorititize your payments due and request an extension on everything else, just like anybody experiencing a liquidity crunch. T Bills coming due 8/4 will be first affected. Those will be paid, interest rate on those have only risen to 0.17%. I guess if you are on the federal dole, maybe think about notion of your check being delayed a bit, but of course all federal debt will be paid. AAA debt rating is for sure at risk.

I think net, net, interest rates are going up.

 

[OCMerrill]

At what point do you stop borrowing? When you can't afford to pay it back when it's 3x over what it was 4 years ago? Couldn't pay it then and now it's resolve is unobtainable.

It don't think this spend your way out of a recession by borrowing money from everywhere is working all that well.

What was the ceiling originally placed there for? Just to modify it?

If the average American wasn't so "I'm gonna get free gas" stupid then maybe pressure would be put on real change.

 

[Classic Daycruiser]

Is it possible to pay off 14 trillion, within 10-30 years, without inflation?


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If i were president, I'd have a truck pick up 50 pallets of Fort Knox Gold, and be finished with congress.

The best U.S. business move, at these gold prices, would be to dump 14 trillion in gold on the market at $1600 an ounce.

 

[Long Way Home]

NO they are not going to raise taxes, but have "REVENUE EXPENDITURES" and "TAX EXPENDITURES"

these turds want to get rid of interest deduction write offs for interest paid on homes 401 k contributions and any other deductions made....


do not want to get off topic,but got an interesting email about 3.8% home sale tax dickhead wants to put on homes sold after 2012...friggen idiot.. read on.. talk about killing home sales even more..


3.8% Sales Tax for home sale after 2012

Call your Democratic Senator's Office to confirm this hidden fact about the Obama Care regulation.


Did you know that if you sell your house after 2012 you will pay a 3.8% sales tax on it? That's $3,800 on a $100,000 home.

When did this happen?It's in the health care bill.
Just thought you should know.
SALES TAX GOES INTO EFFECT 2013 (Part of HC Bill).

Why 2013?
Could it be to come to light AFTER the 2012 elections?
REAL ESTATE SALES TAX.
So, this is "change you can believe in"?

Under the new health care bill all real estate transactions will be subject to a 3.8% Sales Tax.

The bulk of these new taxes don't kick in until 2013 If you sell your $400,000 home, there will be a $15,200 tax.

This bill is set to effect the retiring generation who often downsize their homes.

Does this stuff make your November and 2012 vote more important? Oh, you weren't aware this was in the Obama care bill?
Guess what, you aren't alone.
There are more than a few members of Congress that aren't aware of it either

http://www.gop.gov/blog/10/04/08/obamacare-flatlin es-obamacare-taxes-home>

This is BS..........check out snopes
http://www.snopes.com/politics/taxes/realestate.asp

 

[Flyinbowtie]

ROC;

Here is how I see it.
The credit rating is probably going to be dropped no matter what they do, S&P and Moodys et. al, are looking for a 4 trillion dollar debt reduction package, and it is pretty clear the political will does not exist to do this.
So I think wise people will work from a position that a credit downgrade is going to happen, and direct their investments to minimize the damage.
The markets would all fall in the event we did not raise the debt level. I have read predictions at the 20% level, but if the ball gets rolling down the hill all bets are off.
So this is a two-part deal. We don't get a legit debt reduction plan moving, (and none of the proposed plans other than cut, cap& balance are legit) then we have part A.
Part B is the credit rating.
The treasury states the Fed has 170 billion coming in for the month of August. They state they have obligations exceeding 300 billion. The interest on the debt, I am told, is 29 billion.
They will prioritize, the interest will be serviced, they'll pay the military and write the SS checks. They will do what they have to do to keep a lid n the pressure cooker, and keep people from rioting in the streets.
They don't want part A and part B to mix. They know that would be a mortal blow economy.
In the meantime, we will continue to borrow 40 cents of every dollar we spend, and that means we are borrowing money to pay back money. The Fed will continue to print money and use it to buy Treasury bonds, which means we are printing money, borrowing it, and paying ourselves back.
This can't go on forever.
A 14 trillion dollar debt that cannot be controlled, let alone paid back
We are the proverbial snake that is eating it's own tail....Eventually, this will fail. Then, we will be forced to gather the political will to fix it, or face the consequences. We are close to that point now, and it would be easier to do it now than wait until it is even more out of control.
Fear is slowly becoming a driving force in the economy.
That cannot be a good thing.

 

[thetub]

This is BS..........check out snopes
http://www.snopes.com/politics/taxes/realestate.asp

I dont know about BS. I dont trust these turds. What does certain property investments mean... what if you own alot of investment real estate,which people do.now they would have to pay an additional 3.8%,after reaching $500,000 jointly $250,000 single.... just another tax on people,especially those who want to retire in peace...

 

[MMD]

I'd tell you but then I'd be posting in a political thread that's not in the political forum

 

[Long Way Home]

We all should pay taxes, but the biggest corporations don't pay very much because of special holes in the tax code while leaving us the small guys/small company's to bear the tax burden. The top corporate income tax rate in the United States is 35 percent, but a large group of America's multinational companies don't come close to paying that rate. Google Companies with the biggest tax breaks you will be surprised.

More Info on the 3.8 tax..
http://factcheck.org/2010/04/a-38-percent-sales-tax-on-your-home/[/FONT]

 

[ram78d10]

We all should pay taxes, but the biggest corporations don't pay very much because of special holes in the tax code while leaving us the small guys/small company's to bear the tax burden. The top corporate income tax rate in the United States is 35 percent, but a large group of America's multinational companies don't come close to paying that rate. Google Companies with the biggest tax breaks you will be surprised.

More Info on the 3.8 tax..
http://factcheck.org/2010/04/a-38-percent-sales-tax-on-your-home/[/FONT]

Good post.:thumbsup

 

[thetub]

Yes everyone should pay Taxes,but how much is enough? this tards "polticians" dont work and most of them do not know what it takes to run a business, be it real estate or a company of some sort. We already get clobbered with capital gains tax state/federal etc... I just do not like watching everyday persons hard earned invested money get pissed away by these turds... they are spending your money for you. As far as big corps. and their loopholes F them too.. they in cahoots with these tards...

 

[USCFAN]

We all should pay taxes, but the biggest corporations don't pay very much because of special holes in the tax code while leaving us the small guys/small company's to bear the tax burden. The top corporate income tax rate in the United States is 35 percent, but a large group of America's multinational companies don't come close to paying that rate. Google Companies with the biggest tax breaks you will be surprised.

More Info on the 3.8 tax..
http://factcheck.org/2010/04/a-38-percent-sales-tax-on-your-home/[/FONT]

You hit the nail on the head. And these companies are the ones making huge profits. To make a significant dent in the deficit some of these loopholes need to be changed.

 

[Mandelon]

I sort of agree. Yes, loopholes and stupid tax laws need to be simplified. But if you raise corporate taxes other things can happen besides collecting more revenue.

The companies might decide to move overseas, then the government gets no taxes, and we lose jobs.

Or they might raise prices to cover the reduced revenue. So the consumers end up paying anyway.

Those giant "profits" get reinvested in new equipment, new factories, new technologies, they get distributed to shareholders....they result in higher pay for workers, for bonuses.

Even if they have some fancy corporate jet.....someone had to build that jet, someone has to service it, repair it, fuel it, fly it....etc.

If the company makes a lot of money......another company is likely to move into that business too.....and competition is supposed to bring those prices in line.

 

[MMD]

Good points on the loopholes (check out GE - they're in bed with Obummer and they pay zero taxes) and on the issues when you raise corporate taxes or taxes on the "wealthy".

Most of the "wealthy" people are small business owners and taxing them more is the worst possible idea but hey, the Prez has never had a job or run a business so WTF does he know!

Encouraging small businesses to grow by reducing their taxes and especially making it easier on them with a LOT LESS red tape by all the govt agencies will go a long way to getting the economy moving upwards again.

But this administration doesn't get it. And they never will.