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regor

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"Increasingly Cautious Consumer": Polaris Shares Crash As High Interest Rates Crush Demand For ATVs & Jetskis

teaser image
"We have lowered our full-year guidance to reflect the decision to cut shipments..."

TUE JUL 23, AT 7:45 AM


Polaris reported $1.96 billion in sales for the second quarter, missing the Bloomberg estimate of $2.17 billion. Sales for off-road, on-road, and marine all missed estimates, indicating that consumers are dialing back purchases of outdoor vehicles because of high interest rates.

Here's a snapshot of second-quarter earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg):

  • Sales $1.96 billion, -12% y/y, estimate $2.17 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)
  • Off Road sales $1.53 billion, -6% y/y, estimate $1.64 billion
  • On Road sales $293.3 million, -19% y/y, estimate $334.8 million
  • Marine sales $134.1 million, -40% y/y, estimate $203.9 million
  • Gross profit margin 21.6% vs. 22.8% y/y, estimate 23.1%
  • Cash and cash equivalents $322.7 million, -5.2% y/y, estimate $267.7 million
  • Adjusted EPS from continuing operations $1.38, estimate $2.23
 

Roosky01

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They made bank the last few years for sure, Acquiring Boat Holdings in 2018 worked out to be a a genius move for a few years. Now it appears the marine division is going to suck the life out of them.

It’s a really bad time to be living anywhere close to Elkhart, IN. 😔
 

rivrrts429

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"Increasingly Cautious Consumer": Polaris Shares Crash As High Interest Rates Crush Demand For ATVs & Jetskis

teaser image
"We have lowered our full-year guidance to reflect the decision to cut shipments..."

TUE JUL 23, AT 7:45 AM


Polaris reported $1.96 billion in sales for the second quarter, missing the Bloomberg estimate of $2.17 billion. Sales for off-road, on-road, and marine all missed estimates, indicating that consumers are dialing back purchases of outdoor vehicles because of high interest rates.

Here's a snapshot of second-quarter earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg):

  • Sales $1.96 billion, -12% y/y, estimate $2.17 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)
  • Off Road sales $1.53 billion, -6% y/y, estimate $1.64 billion
  • On Road sales $293.3 million, -19% y/y, estimate $334.8 million
  • Marine sales $134.1 million, -40% y/y, estimate $203.9 million
  • Gross profit margin 21.6% vs. 22.8% y/y, estimate 23.1%
  • Cash and cash equivalents $322.7 million, -5.2% y/y, estimate $267.7 million
  • Adjusted EPS from continuing operations $1.38, estimate $2.23


The EPS is not going to make the shareholders very happy!
 

pronstar

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They need a captive finance arm like an automaker, so they can offer low rates.

Otherwise they’ll just circle the drain while buyers wait for sub-20% interest rates.
 

hallett21

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They need a captive finance arm like an automaker, so they can offer low rates.

Otherwise they’ll just circle the drain while buyers wait for sub-20% interest rates.
I always thought they had super low rates? Is that not the case?
 

NIKAL

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Another hit to Polaris;
Steve Menneto who was the President of Polaris’s off road division and prior to that was the President of the on road motorcycle division is leaving Polaris to become the CEO of Malibu Boats.



 

NIKAL

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Speed UTV is clearly making an impact on Polaris.
All 900 cars!

At first I don’t think Polaris took Speed seriously, then after seeing what they were doing, who they were partnering with etc. I know for a fact they were on Polaris radar. But with the dismal roll out over the past 18 months, the lack of not having any dealers. I don’t think Polaris or any UTV manufacturer is looking or paying attention to Speed anymore.

The up & coming Segway UTV’s a bigger concern to the market share vs Speed UTV.
 

Flying_Lavey

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All 900 cars!

At first I don’t think Polaris took Speed seriously, then after seeing what they were doing, who they were partnering with etc. I know for a fact they were on Polaris radar. But with the dismal roll out over the past 18 months, the lack of not having any dealers. I don’t think Polaris or any UTV manufacturer is looking or paying attention to Speed anymore.

The up & coming Segway UTV’s a bigger concern to the market share vs Speed UTV.
Actually I think the Maverick R has more of an impact to the offroad car market than any other car so far. Specially since it isnt a replacement the other Canam offerings.
 

TPC

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Getting all kinda brochures with discount coupons in the mail from them.
Their prices got ridiculous.
$55K when we checked on the NorthStar. Salesfloor talk, never checked further.
This is no market for insane prices.
 
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JFMFG

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Everyone always says toys are first to go in a downturn. This doesn’t surprise me. The slowdown is here. Government just isn’t ready to tell the American people who are too stupid to see it
 

rivrrts429

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All 900 cars!

At first I don’t think Polaris took Speed seriously, then after seeing what they were doing, who they were partnering with etc. I know for a fact they were on Polaris radar. But with the dismal roll out over the past 18 months, the lack of not having any dealers. I don’t think Polaris or any UTV manufacturer is looking or paying attention to Speed anymore.

The up & coming Segway UTV’s a bigger concern to the market share vs Speed UTV.


Anybody with half a business sense never believed that SPEED would ever compete with the conglomerates anytime soon. SPEED is a boutique business model. Nothing about SPEED’s business model has shown that aspect outside of the racing circles.

Maybe I’m missing something that you have better info for but on paper it wouldn’t make a bunch of sense for Polaris to throw any sort of marketing money to compete with SPEED except beyond the races.

I’m sure the Patents that SPEED holds is on their radar but I can’t imagine Polaris even considering SPEED a competitor beyond the Southwest region and even then probably not.
 

mbrown2

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2 years it was mortgage companies resetting earnings expectations as rates increased... it will now be the other things; cars, boats, rv's ect... its coming... Just bought a used mastercraft after looking at new... 3 months ago; it was 15k off new remaining 2023; then it was 20k off, now it is 24k off and they always just say till end of the month...but come the end of the month the deals continue... Even got a letter from the CEO being a former customer..to take an additional 2k off after negotiating your best price.. in the next two months those 24 boats will be getting blown out as sales drop like a rock after Labor day...

On the Speed note.... Speed has a backlog due to their logistics issues; and early pre-manufacture adoption hype. I would be interested in what is the number of NEW people lining up to put their money down on a Speed with the logistics, reliability and support concerns. Their net new numbers are likely a rounding error compared to Polaris.
 
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NIKAL

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Actually I think the Maverick R has more of an impact to the offroad car market than any other car so far. Specially since it isnt a replacement the other Canam offerings.
It’s more than just the high end sport machine. Think of the high end sport machine as the “Corvette” for Polaris & Can Am. GM spends a ton of money on the Corvette, yet it’s the least seller and they will not discontinue it as it’s a flagship of GM performance.

Same with the UTV industry. They far outsell the utility models vs the sport models. The sport model shows what they are capable of, but the utility is a bigger importance to their revenue. Thats why Honda, Yamaha, Kawasaki, Polaris, Can Am, Segway, Hisun and several more 2nd tier brands all have utility UTV’s. Look it how Polaris, Can Am & Kawasaki have invested in making luxury utility models.
 

2Driver

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How long and how much can the average American take before having to prioritize spending.
Food
Insurance
Dining
Travel
Home and auto repair
Fuel

If the Dems win they will raise income taxes, businesses tax as well as raise cap gain tax. The government is a knee and the average American is George Floyd.
 

BingerFang

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They need a captive finance arm like an automaker, so they can offer low rates.

Otherwise they’ll just circle the drain while buyers wait for sub-20% interest rates.

Probably not the best business idea when 50% of your audience are illegals with no credit score, the other 40% are over leveraged broke dicks with shit credit that will default in 8 months anyways and then there’s the final 10% that pay cash for everything and spend most of their day on a boating forum.
 

DarkHorseRacing

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How long and how much can the average American take before having to prioritize spending.
Food
Insurance
Dining
Travel
Home and auto repair
Fuel

If the Dems win they will raise income taxes, businesses tax as well as raise cap gain tax. The government is a knee and the average American is George Floyd.
Dining and travel have already pretty much been crossed off my list for awhile now, especially since inflation outstripped my COLA pay increases and now I’m making less than I was before that started.

Occasionally trips to Havasu but only because we have a place to stay already, and we can cook at home out there. That saves hotels and eating out.
 

NIKAL

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More news on Polaris;

2024 Outlook​

Polaris updated its 2024 sales outlook to be down 17 to 20 percent versus its previous outlook of down five to seven percent versus 2023. The company now expects adjusted diluted EPS attributed to Polaris Inc. common shareholders to be down 56 to 62 percent versus 2023 versus the prior outlook of down 10 to 15 percent.

 

rivrrts429

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More news on Polaris;

2024 Outlook​

Polaris updated its 2024 sales outlook to be down 17 to 20 percent versus its previous outlook of down five to seven percent versus 2023. The company now expects adjusted diluted EPS attributed to Polaris Inc. common shareholders to be down 56 to 62 percent versus 2023 versus the prior outlook of down 10 to 15 percent.



That’s pretty damn ugly business wise. I’m sure they’ll look to offload underperforming verticals pretty quick. Shareholders will be crawling up the boards ass.
 

NIKAL

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I also read that BRP (Can Am) UTV division met their 30% market share goal a year early and sales were up 8% from last year this time. So who knows if this is part of Polaris lower then expected sales? But the flip side is BRP snow machine is way down due to a warmer then expected 2023 winter season. And BRP SeaDoo water craft division is really hurting. They have been cutting production and laying off employees of the Seadoo brand.

The company I work for makes parts for BRP & it’s CM’s, and BRP has been pushing orders out, trying to cancel orders. Their forecasts don’t look good until Q4, or early 2025. We hope it turns around for our sake.

I heard a whisper from someone reliable in the UTV recreation industry, and he said that he was expecting for Polaris to announce their new multi gear transmission later this year for the next RZR model year. But I’m thinking if earnings are down, they might shelve any new releases, especially if what that article said was right and Polaris is working on reducing dealer inventory. Last thing you want to do is introduce a new model or improvements. Polaris has their dealer meeting next week I think? It will be interesting to see if there is anymore said or anything new? Probably new colors and that’s it.

Also was told Can Am’s dealer meeting is in a few weeks, and they will be announcing and releasing the Mav R Max 4 seater for this fall season.
 

Flatsix66

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How long and how much can the average American take before having to prioritize spending.
Food
Insurance
Dining
Travel
Home and auto repair
Fuel

If the Dems win they will raise income taxes, businesses tax as well as raise cap gain tax. The government is a knee and the average American is George Floyd.
common man, you gotta pay your fair share.
 

Cole Trickle

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The thing that bothers me with all this year vs year sales stuff is we just went through a 3 year period where people had extra $$$ and spent it on toys and camping vs international travel.

Companies act like they are hurting when they typically had a single digit growth rate. 20-30% Covid growth rates are non sustainable and they need to cut staff and erase the 3 years of corporate greed and get back to basics.

Did nobody see this coming?

I also imagine a large percentage of sxs/boats/rv were paid for using house money during the refi boom. Back then you could pillage 100k throw the house on another 30 year loan buy some fun shit and lower your payment $250. 8-10% rate on a 45k sxs or 150k boat is a shit ton of monthly coin in uncertain times.
 
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Sportin' Wood

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The thing that bothers me with all this year vs year sales stuff is we just went through a 3 year period where people had extra $$$ and spent it on toys and camping vs international travel.

Companies act like they are hurting when they typically had a single digit growth rate. 20-30% Covid growth rates are non sustainable and they need to cut staff and erase the 3 years of corporate greed and get back to basics.

Did nobody see this coming?

I also imagine a large percentage of sxs/boats/rv were paid for using house money during the refi boom. Back then you could pillage 100k throw the house on another 30 year loan buy some fun shit and lower your payment $250. 8-10% rate on a 45k Acs or 150k boat is a shit ton of monthly coin in uncertain times.
Public companies are greedy, hungry beasts. Shareholders expect magic.
 

rivrrts429

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Gotta be a lot of dumb people in board rooms and disappointed share holders wondering why 30% growth isn’t normal.

I guess that’s why you give the president a golden parachute when he gets fired…lol


Actually they’re highly intelligent but when your a slave to Wall Street it’s like surfing an epic shorebreak. As a senior executive of these massive corporations you try and find that perfect wave and ride it as long as you possibly can and then one day the weather changes and the wave sucks and you move on to the next beach and try to find that next perfect wave lol
 

RiverDave

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The thing that bothers me with all this year vs year sales stuff is we just went through a 3 year period where people had extra $$$ and spent it on toys and camping vs international travel.

Companies act like they are hurting when they typically had a single digit growth rate. 20-30% Covid growth rates are non sustainable and they need to cut staff and erase the 3 years of corporate greed and get back to basics.

Did nobody see this coming?

I also imagine a large percentage of sxs/boats/rv were paid for using house money during the refi boom. Back then you could pillage 100k throw the house on another 30 year loan buy some fun shit and lower your payment $250. 8-10% rate on a 45k sxs or 150k boat is a shit ton of monthly coin in uncertain times.

Truth.. taking some back of ludicrous and often imaginary money gains isn’t losses.. it’s giving back some of the shit that shouldn’t have happened to begin with
 

Cole Trickle

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Actually they’re highly intelligent but when your a slave to Wall Street it’s like surfing an epic shorebreak. As a senior executive of these massive corporations you try and find that perfect wave and ride it as long as you possibly can and then one day the weather changes and the wave sucks and you move on to the next beach and try to find that next perfect wave lol
I could be a yes man for 10 million a year with a 4 year contract....lol
 

CommanderLee

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The thing that bothers me with all this year vs year sales stuff is we just went through a 3 year period where people had extra $$$ and spent it on toys and camping vs international travel.

Companies act like they are hurting when they typically had a single digit growth rate. 20-30% Covid growth rates are non sustainable and they need to cut staff and erase the 3 years of corporate greed and get back to basics.

Did nobody see this coming?

I also imagine a large percentage of sxs/boats/rv were paid for using house money during the refi boom. Back then you could pillage 100k throw the house on another 30 year loan buy some fun shit and lower your payment $250. 8-10% rate on a 45k sxs or 150k boat is a shit ton of monthly coin in uncertain times.
So true! I like to say that I am in the shit nobody needs business, aftermarket/performance car parts, and we use 2019 for reference. Now as we move further away from the rona we will compare year to year but if we are looking historically back, we start at 2019 and go back from there. Luckily for me we are a family owned business so no share holders.
 

Sportin' Wood

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Actually they’re highly intelligent but when your a slave to Wall Street it’s like surfing an epic shorebreak. As a senior executive of these massive corporations you try and find that perfect wave and ride it as long as you possibly can and then one day the weather changes and the wave sucks and you move on to the next beach and try to find that next perfect wave lol
Agreed

Gotta be a lot of dumb people in board rooms and disappointed share holders wondering why 30% growth isn’t normal.

I guess that’s why you give the president a golden parachute when he gets fired…lol
I love these conversations, I just can't be as open as I would like to be in a public forum. These are best over cold beverages in a social setting, not at on the world wide web.

Hypothetically speaking regarding Polaris and making assumptions. Don't forget they took a huge hit on the bad investment in 4wheel parts/Transamerican where they sold it for pennies on the dollar. Not sure how they structured that loss, but that was a massive investment. mistake. I've no idea why the heck they even bought it, because they did not leverage the locations to sell the core OHV products.

There are so many complex layers to a company like Polaris. They get so big they can't pivot quickly. The left hand and right hand don't always have a hold of the same thing, or even agree. The speed to market of technology and the release dates of products, throw in the commercial strategy partners and the soup can spoil quickly.

When the executive team and managers get paid in stock, short term decisions can sometimes outweigh long term goals. These public companies lack a soul and can change course with the wind, or simply evaporate, merge or pivot.

How much the Board participates and influences has to be different at each one, sometimes many BOD members hold the same role at multiple orgs. The popularity of the brand can influence the stock price often times more than fundamentals. Regardless they better get really damn good at playing defense.

If I was in leadership at Polaris, I would be turning my eye to the Military and Defense Industry. I would also be interested in small urban ride sharing vehicles, likely alternative fuels, or ultra low emissions. 6-8 seat Rangers, and inner city transport. Recreation is gonna be cold a while.
 

rivrrts429

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Agreed


I love these conversations, I just can't be as open as I would like to be in a public forum. These are best over cold beverages in a social setting, not at on the world wide web.

Hypothetically speaking regarding Polaris and making assumptions. Don't forget they took a huge hit on the bad investment in 4wheel parts/Transamerican where they sold it for pennies on the dollar. Not sure how they structured that loss, but that was a massive investment. mistake. I've no idea why the heck they even bought it, because they did not leverage the locations to sell the core OHV products.

There are so many complex layers to a company like Polaris. They get so big they can't pivot quickly. The left hand and right hand don't always have a hold of the same thing, or even agree. The speed to market of technology and the release dates of products, throw in the commercial strategy partners and the soup can spoil quickly.

When the executive team and managers get paid in stock, short term decisions can sometimes outweigh long term goals. These public companies lack a soul and can change course with the wind, or simply evaporate, merge or pivot.

How much the Board participates and influences has to be different at each one, sometimes many BOD members hold the same role at multiple orgs. The popularity of the brand can influence the stock price often times more than fundamentals. Regardless they better get really damn good at playing defense.

If I was in leadership at Polaris, I would be turning my eye to the Military and Defense Industry. I would also be interested in small urban ride sharing vehicles, likely alternative fuels, or ultra low emissions. 6-8 seat Rangers, and inner city transport. Recreation is gonna be cold a while.



You’re extremely spot-on and said it much more eloquently than I did. It’s hard not to lose a forums attention when you get into the weeds of the business lol

I forgot all about the Transamerican deal. Hard to hide that debacle in the financials.

I know Polaris is heavily involved in government as my friends are in that vertical.

Great post! Definitely the type of discussions I love when with friends at a bar or around a campfire having some drinks.
 

EmpirE231

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wonder what they're gonna do with the Glamis beach store property
 

NIKAL

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Agreed


I love these conversations, I just can't be as open as I would like to be in a public forum. These are best over cold beverages in a social setting, not at on the world wide web.

Hypothetically speaking regarding Polaris and making assumptions. Don't forget they took a huge hit on the bad investment in 4wheel parts/Transamerican where they sold it for pennies on the dollar. Not sure how they structured that loss, but that was a massive investment. mistake. I've no idea why the heck they even bought it, because they did not leverage the locations to sell the core OHV products.

There are so many complex layers to a company like Polaris. They get so big they can't pivot quickly. The left hand and right hand don't always have a hold of the same thing, or even agree. The speed to market of technology and the release dates of products, throw in the commercial strategy partners and the soup can spoil quickly.

When the executive team and managers get paid in stock, short term decisions can sometimes outweigh long term goals. These public companies lack a soul and can change course with the wind, or simply evaporate, merge or pivot.

How much the Board participates and influences has to be different at each one, sometimes many BOD members hold the same role at multiple orgs. The popularity of the brand can influence the stock price often times more than fundamentals. Regardless they better get really damn good at playing defense.

If I was in leadership at Polaris, I would be turning my eye to the Military and Defense Industry. I would also be interested in small urban ride sharing vehicles, likely alternative fuels, or ultra low emissions. 6-8 seat Rangers, and inner city transport. Recreation is gonna be cold a while.
Polaris is pretty big in Military defense. They have some pretty good contracts with the U.S and other foreign governments. It is a separate division of Polaris Ind.
 

PRORACER7474

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So true! I like to say that I am in the shit nobody needs business, aftermarket/performance car parts, and we use 2019 for reference. Now as we move further away from the rona we will compare year to year but if we are looking historically back, we start at 2019 and go back from there. Luckily for me we are a family owned business so no share holders.
what business do you own
 

n2otoofast4u

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I also read that BRP (Can Am) UTV division met their 30% market share goal a year early and sales were up 8% from last year this time. So who knows if this is part of Polaris lower then expected sales? But the flip side is BRP snow machine is way down due to a warmer then expected 2023 winter season. And BRP SeaDoo water craft division is really hurting. They have been cutting production and laying off employees of the Seadoo brand.

The company I work for makes parts for BRP & it’s CM’s, and BRP has been pushing orders out, trying to cancel orders. Their forecasts don’t look good until Q4, or early 2025. We hope it turns around for our sake.

I heard a whisper from someone reliable in the UTV recreation industry, and he said that he was expecting for Polaris to announce their new multi gear transmission later this year for the next RZR model year. But I’m thinking if earnings are down, they might shelve any new releases, especially if what that article said was right and Polaris is working on reducing dealer inventory. Last thing you want to do is introduce a new model or improvements. Polaris has their dealer meeting next week I think? It will be interesting to see if there is anymore said or anything new? Probably new colors and that’s it.

Also was told Can Am’s dealer meeting is in a few weeks, and they will be announcing and releasing the Mav R Max 4 seater for this fall season.

The sled market is down because the fkn things are approaching $25k!
 

RiverDave

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Agreed


I love these conversations, I just can't be as open as I would like to be in a public forum. These are best over cold beverages in a social setting, not at on the world wide web.

Hypothetically speaking regarding Polaris and making assumptions. Don't forget they took a huge hit on the bad investment in 4wheel parts/Transamerican where they sold it for pennies on the dollar. Not sure how they structured that loss, but that was a massive investment. mistake. I've no idea why the heck they even bought it, because they did not leverage the locations to sell the core OHV products.

There are so many complex layers to a company like Polaris. They get so big they can't pivot quickly. The left hand and right hand don't always have a hold of the same thing, or even agree. The speed to market of technology and the release dates of products, throw in the commercial strategy partners and the soup can spoil quickly.

When the executive team and managers get paid in stock, short term decisions can sometimes outweigh long term goals. These public companies lack a soul and can change course with the wind, or simply evaporate, merge or pivot.

How much the Board participates and influences has to be different at each one, sometimes many BOD members hold the same role at multiple orgs. The popularity of the brand can influence the stock price often times more than fundamentals. Regardless they better get really damn good at playing defense.

If I was in leadership at Polaris, I would be turning my eye to the Military and Defense Industry. I would also be interested in small urban ride sharing vehicles, likely alternative fuels, or ultra low emissions. 6-8 seat Rangers, and inner city transport. Recreation is gonna be cold a while.


When things get cold there is always opportunity though.. look what happened to the private jet industry?

I always thought people should do that with performance boats and high end Offroad vehicles.. it would be so much easier to own time in a fleet that is maintained and ready to go then actually own one.
 

Ace in the Hole

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How long and how much can the average American take before having to prioritize spending.
Food
Insurance
Dining
Travel
Home and auto repair
Fuel

If the Dems win they will raise income taxes, businesses tax as well as raise cap gain tax. The
government is a knee and the average American is George Floyd.
I think a lot of us are AT his point or approaching it...even if you are upper middle class. I know I'm pocking and choosing trips, weekends we boat vs pool, projects I want to do etc... Not necessarily bc it will break me...its just because the cost isn't worth it to me..

Every cost you listed is now 2-3 times what it was when president mush brains took office.

The sled market is down because the fkn things are approaching $25k!

snow checks are down 50+%
 

Sportin' Wood

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When things get cold there is always opportunity though.. look what happened to the private jet industry?

I always thought people should do that with performance boats and high end Offroad vehicles.. it would be so much easier to own time in a fleet that is maintained and ready to go then actually own one.
The Prep would be key, you would need to include some type of recurring maintenance fee. There are some offroad racing programs like this where you don't own the car, but pay per use.
 

TPC

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These places are asking $50 - $55K for $30K machines.
The payment buyers can't qualify and cash buyers are smarter than to pay that.

Noticed our RR RS is selling new for $27K around AZ,, when they have them.
Or last time we checked. It's what we paid. Been amazing, no reason to buy anything else.
 
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