PLTR

[Warlock1]

Exactly my thoughts….

To go back in time… AMZN… (the below facts are not going to jive, if you try to look this up, because of all the splits it has done since I did this ).

I watched it run from $80 arena to $225… hoping for a pull back to get in,,, fucker never pulled back much… kept running..
At 225, I finally pulled the trigger on 25% buy,,, it wouldnt pull back much. Climbing higher, shit bought another 25%, and it goes higher, does this all the way to $425 ish… and I am fully in… took months to get there…

Guess what.. fucker pulled back to $250… and I am way upside down.. Again, I was very new to the game at that time. But I did the one thing that I didnt want to do…

DOUBLED DOWN… meaning I went 2x more than than what I wanted to have in that one position, to reduce my cost/share price. I believed in the long term AMZN story… when I was finally at the “break even” stock price, I sold 50% of my holding, to give me the position I wanted. Yes.. in hindsight that was not to smart, or selling all of it when I doubled my money…

Lesson learned: None of us have a crystal ball. One thing I do know for sure, If you buy a stock as an investment, then you better believe in the market/story its in. Because all stocks will test you over time… Just read C-ya’s posts. He had the balls to hold long term, and he benefitted from it.

Appreciate the insight. I am just trying to finally make some smart money decisions so I can retire comfortably in 10-15 years. I am a sponge at this point and just want to learn the right things to watch for. Thanks all..

 

[Orange Juice]

Yes, yes it is

Thanks for making the suggestion in the other thread back in March.
I’m not heavy into the stock, but at this rate, it’s starting to leap over all my other speculative stock picks.
Power to the RDP lounge!

 

[Xring01]

Appreciate the insight. I am just trying to finally make some smart money decisions so I can retire comfortably in 10-15 years. I am a sponge at this point and just want to learn the right things to watch for. Thanks all..

Retirement 101…for the average employee… (stated it because business owners have different strategy).

Pay your self first… if you can Max out your 401K, because thats tax free up front. Thats an imediate inflation beating strategy because of no tax’s even if you putting the investment into bonds. (BTW I have my 401k in things like SP500).

After you max out the 401K, then start looking at other avenues.

Unless your a entrepreneur, or have other types of income revenue stream strategys (real estate or ____________).

When I say I have one spreadsheet of all my monthly expenses/annual expenses, income, xmas budget, vacation budget, etc etc etc, 401ks, investments, mortage payoff dates, emergency fund, etc etc etc… 1 yr goals, 5 year goals, 20 year goals, all on one excell speadsheet… and I update it QTRLY. My wife and I discuss where we are at, and where we need to be, and where our priority’s are… The best tool in the world to eliminate financial issues with your spouse.

If you are both looking at the same numbers, working towards the same goals, and meeting both of your needs. Most financial planning issues dissappear.

When we first got married 30 years ago… we literally put new vacuum cleaners and new BBQs as annual goals, kids sports costs, we planned in advance. Back then if we didnt pay attention to monthly budget, then we would have to put xmas budget on credit cards. Thats just stupid, yes, I paid that stupid tax a time or two. But I did learn from my mistakes, not soon enough, but I did learn a thing or two over the years.

 

[clarence]

 

[Xring01]

I think I found a company that could have a bright future…
They are not publically traded, but my suspensions are they will in the next few years, or get bought up by a big player…

Start watching Nanograph… and Silicon Graphene battery technology.

Nanograph is already getting Military contracts to develop next generation battery’s.
Their tech is supposed superior to LION, in many many ways, 10-15% lighter, 20-30% better energy efficiency and can charge 10x faster. This is crucial to soldiers in the field. Meaning Gov will throw some $$$ at this problem/solution.

I am not saying if they go public tomorrow I am all in… NOPE NOPE NOPE…
What I am saying, Put this on your radar, do some research on Nanograph, figure out if their competitors (who might be publically traded) have a better product, can the tech be economically developed to market demands?… etc etc etc.

Those who think investing is easy… well now you see the kind of homework/time it can take…

 

[PaPaG]

FWIW……….

I thought I was the guy that brought PLTR to the attention of RDP.

So far……… I have tripled my investment since I first promoted PLTR.

Dont ask how much I own………. It’s bad enough that RDP knows how many NVDA shares I own. That’s the price I payed for being happy one day, last February. lol

Let’s just say……… my PLTR buy was significant. It was a good move too!

I loved trading PLTR, the ups and downs were amazing for a day trading, I did both PLTR and SOFI with huge positions on over two dozen trades, made more than I thought possible BUT I WISH KEPT BOTH NOW lol...

 

[C-Ya]

This is not bragging. This is what happened to me when I invested long term with NVDA. In 2013 I purchased 1000 shares at just over $19 per share. Because of the stock splitting, those shares have turned into 40,000 shares.

On November 10th, 2023 my 19k investment that I made in 2013 had turned into $1,800,400. My wife and I were walking on the moon. It was unbelievable! But, rather than take out a nickel of that good fortune, we let it ride. Just in the past year, that $1.8 million turned in $5,905,200, which means that it went up $4,104,800 in just 1 year. (Or $11,246 per day).

It took 10 years for it to get to 1.8……. Then only a year to more than triple that.

In case you are wondering………. We will continue to let it ride! I doubt it will triple again in a year, but i will still hope and prey that it does. lol

I post the above because of my Cinderella story, but also to let others know what is possible.

The nice thing about my Nvidia holdings is that I never had to rent it, remodel it, evict it, insure it, or pay yearly taxes on it. I just sat back and enjoyed the ride………

 

[CLdrinker]

$60

 

[C-Ya]

$60

I got in at $15. Life is good. lol

 

[CLdrinker]

I got in at $15. Life is good. lol

I’m averaged at $19.80.

 

[clarence]

Up $1.29M today.

 

[Orange Juice]

$62.50

 

[CLdrinker]

So I did some YouTube research last night.

Elon / Vivek are tasked with eliminating government waste. How do you do that?
Data.
Who has a Software that is designed to read Data to create efficiencies but still does not give access to that data that is privileged information?

Palantir

Joe Lonsdale was recently in an interview where he said that he believes that 1/3 of the US economy could benefit from the use of his software. So much so that he believes he could eliminate the US debt.

Joe is a founder of Palantir and guess who is Joe’s buddy? Elon.

Palantir is already widely used by the government. So seems like a slam dunk.

But hey WTF do I know.

 

[C-Ya]

So I did some YouTube research last night.

Elon / Vivek are tasked with eliminating government waste. How do you do that?
Data.
Who has a Software that is designed to read Data to create efficiencies but still does not give access to that data that is privileged information?

Palantir

Joe Lonsdale was recently in an interview where he said that he believes that 1/3 of the US economy could benefit from the use of his software. So much so that he believes he could eliminate the US debt.

Joe is a founder of Palantir and guess who is Joe’s buddy? Elon.

Palantir is already widely used by the government. So seems like a slam dunk.

But hey WTF do I know.

The above is why I depend on qualified analists predictions. Mainly because I don’t know.

Motley Fool got me to invest with NVDA. Since that has been so successful, I jumped on the PLTR train when they recommended it. I continue to read their future predictions of PLTR. That is why I continue to hold.

So far……… I have been very happy with my “paid” membership to Motley Fool. I highly recommend others do the same. Look at what it did for me! Again………. I am no genius. I only know how to read. lol

 

[CLdrinker]

The above is why I depend on qualified analists predictions. Mainly because I don’t know.

Motley Fool got me to invest with NVDA. Since that has been so successful, I jumped on the PLTR train when they recommended it. I continue to read their future predictions of PLTR. That is why I continue to hold.

So far……… I have been very happy with my “paid” membership to Motley Fool. I highly recommend others do the same. Look at what it did for me! Again………. I am no genius. I only know how to read. lol

You don’t do any research or understand what the companies do before you follow Motley Fools recommendations?

 

[C-Ya]

You don’t do any research or understand what the companies do before you follow Motley Fools recommendations?

Motley Fool brings certain stocks to our attention. From there, it is up to us, to do our due diligence.

If you knew how little we knew about NVDA when we first purchased it, you would be amazed. We thought we were investing in a sensor company, not a chip manufacturer. We only knew 1 thing. We read that Nvidia‘s product would be needed for automated cars. At that time, we believed that automated cars was going to be a thing, so we bought the stock. That’s it.

CLdrinker, I learned more in your post today about PLTR than I have gotten from the analyst predictions. I chose not to mire myself in the details. lol I just care about the trajectory……..

 

[CLdrinker]

Motley Fool brings certain stocks to our attention. From there, it is up to us, to do our due diligence.

If you knew how little we knew about NVDA when we first purchased it, you would be amazed. We thought we were investing in a sensor company, not a chip manufacturer. We only knew 1 thing. We read that Nvidia‘s product would be needed for automated cars. At that time, we believed that automated cars was going to be a thing, so we bought the stock. That’s it.

CLdrinker, I learned more in your post today about PLTR than I have gotten from the analyst predictions. I chose not to mire myself in the details. lol I just care about the trajectory……..

Interesting. I won’t buy anything unless it’s a household name or I do tons of research.

 

[CLdrinker]

Translation?

It’s jumped $2 after this announcement.

 

[CLdrinker]

Must have been good news. Heading towards $65

 

[coolchange]

Dammit. Need to buy more.

 

[CLdrinker]

Dammit. Need to buy more.

I’m shocked it hasn’t pulled back. I want a pull back so I can load up. Just don’t want to buy the day the run ends lol

 

[coolchange]

I’m shocked it hasn’t pulled back. I want a pull back so I can load up. Just don’t want to buy the day the run ends lol

I agree. Has it made it jump on the notice?

 

[Orange Juice]

I’m shocked it hasn’t pulled back. I want a pull back so I can load up. Just don’t want to buy the day the run ends lol

The AI sector is trending. Most still think AI is about generating pictures.

 

[Xring01]

I’m shocked it hasn’t pulled back. I want a pull back so I can load up. Just don’t want to buy the day the run ends lol

I am still holding…

At this valuation, combined with how fast its climbed in a short period….


I see more down potential, than up potential. The PE Ratio is insane, even for a speculative stock.

If I do anything… that would be to cash out, hoping for a 20 % downturn, then get back in.

For now I am holding, hoping it calms down a bit. If it does another up 3-5% total in the next few trading days, I will probably take my profits and hope for a major correction.

 

[Xring01]

Did I predict the future???

 

[coolchange]

Did I predict the future???

View attachment 1451633

For a minute lol. What’s the rest of your predictions say? It’s gonna go up, then down, then up….

 

[gqchris]

For a minute lol. What’s the rest of your predictions say? It’s gonna go up, then down, then up….

Im down 1k in just a short few minutes HEHEH, I'm watching what Xring does, keep us posted!

 

[CLdrinker]

Did I predict the future???

View attachment 1451633

It was bound to happen. Just when where how much and when is the right get back in time.

All that shit never works out for me timing wise. So I’m just holding forever through good and bad. Smile during the good buy during the bad.

 

[gqchris]

It was bound to happen. Just when where how much and when is the right get back in time.

All that shit never works out for me timing wise. So I’m just holding forever through good and bad. Smile during the good buy during the bad.

You and I trade the same sir, I can never time shit!

 

[CLdrinker]

You and I trade the same sir, I can never time shit!

I have lost my ass on trying to time.

I sold a boat load of Apple,Visa, Amazon and VUG this time last year all because Michael Berry said the crash was near and he was shorting Billions.

So I cut my account in half. FML if i didn’t listen to that bull shit I would be up another 10k probably.

 

[CLdrinker]

Looks like we are trying to hold the $60 line.

 

[coolchange]

Let it establish a bottom, I might come in for a little more. Or sell and get more sofi

 

[BHC Vic]

I don’t know that I want to but anything yet but I have a large chunk of my vacation check to invest… or pay down the rv loan. I dunno I gotta really sit down and make a plan

 

[C-Ya]

I have lost my ass on trying to time.

I sold a boat load of Apple,Visa, Amazon and VUG this time last year all because Michael Berry said the crash was near and he was shorting Billions.

So I cut my account in half. FML if i didn’t listen to that bull shit I would be up another 10k probably.

Don’t listen to those that “short” stock. They are not Analists. They are motivated by getting others to sell. It’s always doom n gloom to a short seller. That’s how they make money.

 

[coolchange]

I don’t know that I want to but anything yet but I have a large chunk of my vacation check to invest… or pay down the rv loan. I dunno I gotta really sit down and make a plan

RV is a guaranteed 20% return…..

 

[Xring01]

It was bound to happen. Just when where how much and when is the right get back in time.

All that shit never works out for me timing wise. So I’m just holding forever through good and bad. Smile during the good buy during the bad.

This is what I thought/hoped would happen…
It needs to calm down awhile, before it can make another run…. So I am still holding…

As I mentioned in post #74, If PLTR went up today a few percentage point, I would have most likely sold it.

A price correction after the recent run up over the last few months… is good for PLTR in the long term.

The key PE ratio me is 400… very very few stocks can pull that off… GOOG, AMZN on the initial run ups. I am not saying PLTR is GOOG or AMZN, but a PLTR has a current PE ration of 309 which is still stupid high for SP500.

I want to own this for the long haul, I truly do, but the moment it starts throwing me red flags, I will take my profits and run… hope for a big pull back.

 

[JL95]

Up $1.29M today.

View attachment 1449514

What is the move for Microstrategy? I bought 2 @ $417 yesterday

 

[CLdrinker]

What is the move for Microstrategy? I bought 2 @ $417 yesterday

The move was to buy more shares yesterday

 

[clarence]

What is the move for Microstrategy? I bought 2 @ $417 yesterday

HODL

 

[JL95]

The move was to buy more shares yesterday

I wish . i had about a G in a wells fargo account so i just used wellstrade to mess around. Maybe time to subscribe to Motley Fool and become millionaire?? STONKS

 

[CLdrinker]

Hit 67 this morning for a minute. Upgraded to $75 a share by 2 analysts.

 

[coolchange]

I wish . i had about a G in a wells fargo account so i just used wellstrade to mess around. Maybe time to subscribe to Motley Fool and become millionaire?? STONKS

Mötley Fool is like the earthquake predictors. They are eventually going to be really, really right.

 

[Xring01]

I just read an article that was posted in Yahoo finance that I think all PLTR owners should read…
BTW… Yahoo finance is a free app that I use. I plug in all the stocks I own/watch, and it feeds all the news articles on them…
Again its FREE… not subscription based. Yes some of the articles posted, link you to places that want you to sign up.

As far as I am concerned this is a must read… It will not allow me to post the link.

 

[coolchange]

I just read an article that was posted in Yahoo finance that I think all PLTR owners should read…
BTW… Yahoo finance is a free app that I use. I plug in all the stocks I own/watch, and it feeds all the news articles on them…
Again its FREE… not subscription based. Yes some of the articles posted, link you to places that want you to sign up.

As far as I am concerned this is a must read… It will not allow me to post the link.
View attachment 1454050

Been thinking of selling it but trying to hold out after the first of the year.

 

[DRYHEAT]

I just read an article that was posted in Yahoo finance that I think all PLTR owners should read…
BTW… Yahoo finance is a free app that I use. I plug in all the stocks I own/watch, and it feeds all the news articles on them…
Again its FREE… not subscription based. Yes some of the articles posted, link you to places that want you to sign up.

As far as I am concerned this is a must read… It will not allow me to post the link.
View attachment 1454050

Just trying an experiment here, but I posted the body of the article, or at least I think I did. We’ll know in a second.

There's plenty of evidence that Palantir's (NYSE: PLTR)stock is in a bubble. History is not on Palantir's side, and many companies have traded around the lofty expectation its stock currently trades at, and few (if any) have worked out well for investors.

So, how can one of the most dominant AI software companies be in a bubble when business is booming? It's simple: Expectations outweigh reality.

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Palantir's business is succeeding, but it's not the next Nvidia​

To be clear, Palantir's business is fantastic and will continue to grow. That part isn't up for debate. Palantir offers a top-notch AI software product that allows its users to make the most informed decisions possible. This benefits governments that deploy its software as well as commercial businesses.

Its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) product is also top-notch. It allows users to integrate generative AI models into a business's inner workings rather than using them as a tool on the side.

But I draw the line at calling Palantir the Nvidia of the software world, as it's in a far too competitive market to have that title.

Nvidia is in a world of its own in terms of performance compared to its peers, so it became the only choice. Palantir has competition from many directions. It's competing against other companies that have pre-built AI models, consulting firms that have the talent to build these models for their clients, and individual contributors that are building these AI models for their own companies.

While Palantir has been successful so far, the number of clients it can sign is fairly limited. Palantir's software is incredibly expensive, mainly because it is purpose-built for each application. In the third quarter, Palantir had 321 U.S. commercial clients, generating $179 million in revenue. If you annualize that revenue figure, you get an average revenue per customer of $2.23 million. This leaves out a lot of potential small and mid-sized clients and caps the maximum customer base Palantir can reach.

This isn't a knock on Palantir or its product; it's just the reality that not every business will use Palantir, whereas something like a Nvidia GPU might be deployed by a vast majority of businesses in one way or another.

However, the stock is trading like Palantir's software will be used by everyone in every business worldwide.

Palantir is trading in a dangerous zone​

In the third quarter, Palantir's revenue grew 30% year over year. While that's strong growth, it's not nearly enough to justify the stock price.

Let's take a look at another high-flier that everyone was going to use forever: Zoom Video. Back in the pandemic years, Zoom saw rapid adoption as everyone equipped themselves to work from home. There were predictions that nobody would return to the office, and Zoom would be the new way of doing business. Zoom's revenue rapidly expanded, and so did the stock valuation.


ZM Operating Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts
Zoom's revenue quadrupled year over year for a few quarters, but even when revenue was doubling, the stock traded for around 40 to 60 times sales. Once the boom was over, Zoom's stock price collapsed, and it now sits only 15% above where it entered 2020.

Palantir hasn't shown nearly that level of growth, yet its stock trades at a lofty 57 times sales.


PLTR Operating Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts
This isn't the first time Palantir has traded around this level, but the last time it did so, it was growing revenue much faster.

As another comparison point, Nvidia never traded for more than 45 times sales, even when its revenue tripled year over year.

Palantir's stock looks to be in a bubble, and investors need to be careful. The problem is that bubbles can go much higher before they burst, and Palantir's stock may continue to rise. However, unless Palantir starts doubling or tripling its revenue year over year and sustains that for a few years, this valuation doesn't make sense.

The company will likely continue to grow and succeed, but over the long term, I doubt the stock will. There are far too many great companies at fair prices in the market that offer greater long-term return potential, and I'd look there (or move profits from Palantir to there) before investing in this stock that's due for a massive drop.

Should you invest $1,000 in Palantir Technologies right now?​

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Keithen Drury has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia, Palantir Technologies, and Zoom Video Communications. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Is Palantir's Stock in a Bubble? History Says Yes.was originally published by The Motley Fool

 

[Xring01]

Been thinking of selling it but trying to hold out after the first of the year.

My posts, prior to the article just posted, pretty much add’s credence to my thoughts on “bubble” or going to high to fast and the 400 PE Ratio I mentioned.

I will probably trim my PLTR position (30%) in my trading account, and thinking I will just hold my PLTR position (70%) in my retirement account. I will not get into all the reasons why one over the other, note I have key reasons.

As I have mentioned on many investment threads. I wake up and read Yahoo finance every AM, on the positions I hold and the positions I am interested in. So I read alot of investment articles.

The one posted above is just one article. There are others that analysts are revising their forecast to $75 On PLTR.
As I have mentioned, if your going to own individual stocks then you need to perform your due diligence on the positions you hold and read, read read… If not, then your may get your ass handed to you.

Because I brought up PLTR many years ago and the reasons why I was buying it… Is the reason why I am telling you guys that I am taking about 30% of my holding as profits. Yes, I will have to pay tax’s on those profits. This account has different strategy than my other account, which is why I am holding the 70% in the “Retirement account” FOR NOW….

Yes PLTR has me nervous. I personally see more short term down side risk than upside risk. WHY, Because its way over priced for the income/profits its generating. I am taking some profits, letting the rest run… IN MY LONG TERM ACCOUNT… LONG TERM IS THE KEY TAKEAWAY… I will sell the shares in the trading account, because it has short term strategy… SHORT TERM ACCOUNT.

I am not advising you on what to do with your holdings. I am just sharing what I am doing and the reasons why It makes sense to me… and MY STRATEGY’s for those accounts.

 

[CLdrinker]

Definitely something to consider. But I would like to know how long the person that wrote that article has been following Palantir.

Whom are these competitors that they are talking about. What contracts have they got lately?
Palantir boot camps have people trained to use their software in days and use very user friendly according to customers.
Is Palantir expensive? Yes. But would you spend a couple million to save tens of millions because that is what Palantir does.

I suggest people understand what Palantir does, I don’t think many do.

 

[CLdrinker]

Also I remember a company that starts with a T that was way overvalued and many said it would crash.

Not long ago Karp said he will prove his company will 10x. If you follow him you wouldn’t take the guy as a bullshitter.

 

[Xring01]

Definitely something to consider. But I would like to know how long the person that wrote that article has been following Palantir.

Whom are these competitors that they are talking about. What contracts have they got lately?
Palantir boot camps have people trained to use their software in days and use very user friendly according to customers.
Is Palantir expensive? Yes. But would you spend a couple million to save tens of millions because that is what Palantir does.

I suggest people understand what Palantir does, I don’t think many do.

CLdrinker….
The key take away in that article is just how many customers they have… “321 US Commercial Clients”… There are huge pro’s and huge cons…

Pro’s - if this is what they can do with 321 customers… damn, what happens if they have 3200?????

Con’s - why has it taken so long to get 321 customers???? Whats it going to cost to double / triple the customer base????

Thats how I look at it…

Long Long Long Term… I still see lots of value in owning PLTR…

Short Term… I see a few bumps in the road…. Hoping it pulls way way way back… to reload the short term account.

Not all investors have the stomach for a few bumps… As we have seen on this thread, most dont even understand what the company’s do, that they have invested in…. Nor do they develop strategys for different accounts.

 

[CLdrinker]

CLdrinker….
The key take away in that article is just how many customers they have… “321 US Commercial Clients”… There are huge pro’s and huge cons…

Pro’s - if this is what they can do with 321 customers… damn, what happens if they have 3200?????

Con’s - why has it taken so long to get 321 customers???? Whats it going to cost to double / triple the customer base????

Thats how I look at it…

Long Long Long Term… I still see lots of value in owning PLTR…

Short Term… I see a few bumps in the road…. Hoping it pulls way way way back… to reload the short term account.

Not all investors have the stomach for a few bumps… As we have seen on this thread, most dont even understand what the company’s do, that they have invested in…. Nor do they develop strategys for different accounts.

Oh there will be bumps in the road. I’m struggling with when to sell. Like I have said this is my kids account and I have already hit my goal that I had planned to take 5-10yrs to accomplish. So do I cash out and take the win. Or do I lit it ride and hope for life changing money.