Mortgage Market Update/Purchase and Refinance Mortgage info

[Cole Trickle]

what are the current rates for a 15 year fixed?

 

[Tamalewagon]

Cole...PM me your scenario.

 

[Tamalewagon]

Good news for mortgage loan amounts in 2018. The conforming loan amounts were raised to $453,100! High balance conforming limits for San Diego county were raised to $649,750 and for LA county $679,650!

 

[Tamalewagon]

Wednesday’s bond market has opened well in negative territory following overnight weakness and unfavorable comments by Fed Chair Yellen. The major stock indexes are mixed with the Dow up 100 points and the Nasdaq down 56 points. The bond market is down 16/32 (2.38%), which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

This morning’s GDP reading showed that the economy grew at a 3.3% annual rate during the 3rd quarter, up from the previously estimate 3.0%. This means the economy was stronger than thought, making the data bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. Fortunately, this data is a bit aged now, so its impact on this morning’s mortgage pricing has been minimal.

A good part of this morning’s bond losses is a result of today’s congressional appearance by Fed Chair Janet Yellen. In her statement she indicated that the economy is growing across several sectors and that they are confident inflation will meet or surpass their preferred benchmark. The news cause bonds to extend their early selling, causing this morning’s increase in mortgage rates.

We have a third event to watch for this afternoon. The Federal Reserve will release their Beige Book at 2:00 PM ET. This report is named simply after the color of its cover and details economic conditions by Fed region. That information is relied upon heavily during the FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy, so its results can influence bond trading and mortgage rates if it shows any noticeable changes from the last update. More times than not though, this report will not influence the markets enough to cause intra-day changes to mortgage rates, but the potential to do so does exist.

October's Personal Income and Outlays data is tomorrow’s sole monthly release. This data measures consumers' ability to spend and their current spending habits. It is important because consumer spending is such a large part of the U.S. economy. It is expected to show that income rose 0.3% and that spending also increased 0.3%. Weaker than expected readings would mean consumers had less money to spend and were spending less than thought. That would be favorable news for bonds and could lead to improvements in mortgage rates tomorrow morning.

We will also get weekly unemployment claims early tomorrow morning. They are expected to show that 238,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. That would be a slight decline from the previous week. Good news will be a large increase as rising claims is a sign of employment sector weakness.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Scott Wenhe
Phone: 619-255-3182 - toll free 866-476-2494

 

[Tamalewagon]

Good news for mortgage loan amounts in 2018. The conforming loan amounts were raised to $453,100! High balance conforming limits for San Diego county were raised to $649,750 and for LA county $679,650!

A few of my lenders are allowing these new loan amounts before the first of the year. All loans submitted today until the end of the year are eligible for the new loan amounts.

 

[HOOTER SLED-]

what are the current rates for a 15 year fixed?

Baller!!!!!

 

[Cole Trickle]

Baller!!!!!

Scott ran the numbers for me.... Doesn't really make sense as I only have 16-17 years left with my current accelerated payments (bi weekly plus some extra)

It raised my payment by about $150 and then you have to deal with the added fees and refi process.

I should have done it when a 15 was in the high 2's

 

[HOOTER SLED-]

Scott ran the numbers for me.... Doesn't really make sense as I only have 16-17 years left with my current accelerated payments (bi weekly plus some extra)

It raised my payment by about $150 and then you have to deal with the added fees and refi process.

I should have done it when a 15 was in the high 2's

No shit huh.... wished I was in the position to refi back when the rates were super low.

 

[Cole Trickle]

No shit huh.... wished I was in the position to refi back when the rates were super low.

yep we both missed it brother.....

bought high and didn't have the LTV to make it happen a couple years back.

 

[Tamalewagon]

Thursday’s bond market has opened flat despite strong stocks gains. The major stock indexes are in rally mode with the Dow up 137 points and the Nasdaq up 34 points. The bond market is currently unchanged from yesterday’s close (2.38%), but we still should see a slight improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates.

Yesterday afternoon’s release of the Fed Beige Book didn’t reveal many surprises. It indicated modest to moderate economic growth throughout the Fed’s 12 regions. What did draw some attention were notes of price pressures rising since the previous update. Inflation has been subdued with the Fed repeatedly predicting it will eventually get to its preferred threshold of 2.0% annually. Rising inflation makes long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds less attractive to investors and causes mortgage rates to rise instead of falling. Yesterday’s news didn’t have much of an influence on mortgage rates, but it does put us on alert for the next update.

There were two economic reports posted this morning, both at 8:30 AM ET. The Commerce Department gave us October's Personal Income and Outlays data that showed a 0.4% rise in income while spending rose 0.3%. Analysts were expecting to see a 0.3% increase in both, meaning the income reading that give consumers the ability to spend, was stronger than thought. That makes the report neutral to slightly negative for mortgage rates, especially since the inflation readings pegged forecasts.

Last week’s unemployment update was also released. It revealed that 238,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. That was down slightly from the previous week’s revised 240,000 initial filings, but matched expectations. Because this is only a weekly snapshot of the employment sector and did not reveal a significant variance, it has also had little impact on this morning’s mortgage pricing.

The week’s calendar closes tomorrow with an important manufacturing report. November's Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index will be posted at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This index measures manufacturer sentiment and can have a considerable impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts call for a decline in sentiment from October to November. October's reading was previously announced as 58.7. A weaker reading than the expected 58.3 would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, especially if it moves much closer to 50.0. A reading below that threshold means that more surveyed business executives felt business worsened during the month than those who felt it had improved. The lower the reading the better the news it is for bonds because waning sentiment indicates a slowing manufacturing sector and makes broader economic growth less likely.

We will also get weekly unemployment claims early tomorrow morning. They are expected to show that 238,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. That would be a slight decline from the previous week. Good news will be a large increase as rising claims is a sign of employment sector weakness.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Scott Wenhe
Phone: 619-255-3182 - toll free 866-476-2494

 

[Tamalewagon]

Markets In A Minute

http://mymortgagestatus.info/miam/?...0F00A2542C04258313F325FDB8882DD12A027BFDF7E7B

 

[Tamalewagon]

Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory as the tax reform issue takes centerstage in the markets. Stocks are showing moderate losses of 59 points in the Dow and 22 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 8/32 (2.38%), but we still should see an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of slightly less than .125 of a discount point. This is because this morning’s positive reaction is not quite as strong as yesterday’s negative move.

We saw bonds tank yesterday afternoon as rumors spread that the Senate was going forward with a tax reform vote. Since it appeared there was enough support for it to pass, the bond market reacted negatively. Then, as we have seen many times with political-related swings, the outlook changed last night. The consensus swung to the opinion it may not pass in its current form after all. We saw a good part of yesterday’s negative move unwind during overnight trading, causing a positive open for the bond market this morning. It is still being reported that a vote may take place today, so this volatility may not be over with yet and we could still see another mortgage rates revision before the end of the day.

Today’s only important economic release was November's Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index at 10:00 AM ET. It came in at 58.2, down from October’s 58.7 but nearly matching expectations. The decline means fewer surveyed manufacturing executives felt business conditions improved during the month than did last month. Because that is a sign of slower manufacturing activity, it is technically good news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, since it didn’t reveal a surprise reading either way, it has had little influence on this morning’s mortgage pricing.

Next week has a couple of things that may heavily influence mortgage rates, including the highly important monthly Employment report. Compared to this week, there is much less being released or taking place, but we still should see plenty of movement in the markets and mortgage rates. The week does have something happening Monday- the release of October’s Factory Orders report. This is only a moderately important release. Look for details on all of next week’s calendar in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Scott Wenhe
Phone: 619-255-3182
toll free: 866-476-2494

 

[Tamalewagon]

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory as the markets react to the weekend’s Senate tax reform vote. Stocks are oddly mixed with the Dow up 291 points, but the Nasdaq is down 1 point. The bond market is currently down 8/32 (2.39%). However, extreme volatility Friday left bonds better than they were for morning pricing, meaning we still should see little change in today’s early rates if comparing to Friday’s morning pricing. If your lender improved rates during afternoon trading Friday, you may see a slight improvement in today’s rates.

October's Factory Orders report was posted at 10:00 AM ET today, giving us some manufacturing information. The Commerce Department announced a 0.1% decline in new orders at U.S. factories. Usually, a decline would be good news as it points towards a softening manufacturing sector. That’s not the case in today’s release because analysts were expecting to see a 0.4% decline, meaning activity was a bit better than expected.

The remainder of the week has four more economic reports scheduled that have the potential to affect mortgage rates. One of those, Friday’s monthly Employment report, is considered to be a major release that can heavily influence the financial and mortgage markets. This week’s data, along with the tax reform, Russia investigation and other events out of Washington, make it likely that we will have another active week for mortgage rates.

Tomorrow has nothing of importance set for release, so expect political news and any surprises on tax reform that may derail the final approval to drive bond trading and mortgage rates. Wednesday had two reports early in the morning that the markets will be watching (ADP Employment and revised 3rd Quarter Productivity numbers).

Overall, Friday is the most important day of the week due to the release of the monthly Employment report. We saw a very volatile end of the week last week and this week shouldn’t be much different. Therefore, please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Scott Wenhe
Phone: 619-255-3182
Toll Free: 866-476-2494

 

[Tamalewagon]

Tuesday’s bond market has opened down slightly with little to drive trading this morning. The major stock indexes are showing relatively minor gains during early trading, pushing the Dow up 17 points while the Nasdaq has gained 35 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32 (2.39%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates close to yesterday’s early levels.

There is nothing of importance set for release today, so if we see an intraday move in mortgage rates it likely will be a result of strength or weakness in stocks. As long as stocks remain near current levels, we should see mortgage rates follow suit.

Tomorrow has two pieces of economic data that we will be watching. The first is the ADP Employment report for November at 8:15 AM ET, which has the potential to cause some movement in the markets if it shows much stronger or weaker numbers. This report tracks changes in private-sector jobs of the company's clients that use them for payroll processing. While it does draw attention, it is my opinion that it is overrated and is not a true reflection of the broader employment picture. It also is not very accurate in predicting results of the monthly government report that follows a couple days later. Still, because we sometimes see a noticeable reaction to the report, it is on this week's calendar. Analysts are expecting to see 190,000 new private-sector payrolls last month.

The second report of the day will be revised 3rd Quarter Productivity numbers at 8:30 AM ET. This index is expected to show a small upward revision from the preliminary reading of worker productivity. Higher levels of productivity are thought to allow the economy to expand without inflationary pressures rising. This is good news for the bond market because economic growth itself isn't necessarily bad for the bond market. It's the conditions around an expanding economy, such as inflation, that hurt bond prices and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for an annual rate in productivity of 3.3%, up from the previous estimate of 3.0%. The higher the reading, the better the news for the bond market. Although, this report generally does not have a noticeable impact on mortgage pricing, so it will take a wide variance to draw much attention.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Scott Wenhe
Phone: 619-255-3182
Toll Free: 866-476-2494

 

[Tamalewagon]

Thursday’s bond market has opened fairly flat with little posted this morning and a major economic release coming tomorrow. Stocks are showing minor gains of 46 points in the Dow and 26 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (2.33%), but a little weakness late yesterday is going to prevent an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates.

Last week’s unemployment update was posted early this morning, revealing that 236,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were field last week. This was a small decline from the previous week’s 238,000 initial filings. Since analysts were expecting to see an increase in claims, we can consider this data bad news for mortgage rates. Fortunately, this is only a weekly snapshot, so its impact on today’s trading has been minimal.

Tomorrow closes the week with two economic reports scheduled, one of which is extremely important to the markets. That key release is November's Employment figures at 8:30 AM ET. This is arguably the most important monthly report we see, so its impact on the markets and mortgage rates is often significant. It is comprised of many statistics and readings, but the most watched are the unemployment rate, the number of news jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. Current forecasts call for no change in the unemployment rate of 4.1% while 190,000 new jobs were added to the economy. The income reading is forecasted to show an increase of 0.3%. An ideal scenario for mortgage shoppers would be a higher unemployment rate, a much smaller increase in payrolls (or a decline) and no change in the earnings reading. That scenario should cause bond prices to rise sharply and mortgage rates to move much lower tomorrow. However, stronger than expected readings would likely fuel a bond sell-off that would lead to higher mortgage rates.

Also worth noting is that extra attention will be given to this month's Employment report because it is the last one before this month FOMC meeting. It is at this meeting that many analysts and market participants expect the Fed to push key short-term interest rates higher by a quarter-point. If this report meets or exceeds expectations, it is highly likely that the Fed will make that planned move this month. On the other hand, surprisingly weak numbers throw into question whether they will make that rate hike now or wait for the first 2018 meeting to do so. Any possibility of a delay in the rate hike should be taken as good news in the bond market.

The final report of the week is the release of December's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and can usually have enough of an impact on the financial markets to change mortgage rates slightly if it shows a sizable miss from forecasts. Consumer sentiment or confidence is tracked because the more comfortable consumers are about their own financial situations, the more likely they are to make a large purchase in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up such a large part of our economy, any related data is watched closely. Tomorrow's release is expected to show a reading of 98.8, which would be a small increase from last month's final reading of 98.5. A large decline in confidence would be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...


Scott Wenhe
Phone: 619-255-3182 - toll free 866-476-2494

 

[Tamalewagon]

Friday’s bond market has opened down slightly following mixed results in today’s major economic release. Stocks are in positive ground, pushing the Dow up 31 points while the Nasdaq has gained 47 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32 (2.37%), which with yesterday’s afternoon weakness should cause this morning’s mortgage rates to be slightly higher than Thursday’s morning pricing.

November's Employment report was posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning. It gave us several important readings on the employment sector, showing that the unemployment rate remained at 4.1% last month and that 228,000 new jobs were added to the economy. The unemployment rate matched forecasts but the payroll number was higher than expected (190k). There were also some revisions to October and September’s numbers, but the net difference over the two months was only 3,000 jobs and not relevant today. Still, this news only helped support the consensus that the Fed is going to raise key short-term interest rates next week.

The good part of the report was average earnings data. Analysts were expecting to see a 0.3% rise in earnings while today’s report revealed only a 0.2% increase. More good news came in a 0.1% downward revision to October’s earnings reading. The weaker than predicted earnings data eases inflation concerns that erode investor value in bonds. This news is preventing a negative reaction in the bond and mortgage markets.

Also released this morning was December's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment. The 10:00 AM ET release showed a 96.8 reading that fell short of last month’s 98.5. That means that surveyed consumers were less optimistic about their own financial situations than thought. Forecasts were calling for a slight increase in sentiment. Because waning confidence usually translates into weaker levels of consumer spending, this reading was good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Next week brings us the release of several important economic releases in addition to the last FOMC meeting of the year, which will also include revised economic projections and a press conference with Chair Janet Yellen. There is relevant data being posted every day except Monday. Look for details on next week’s events in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Scott Wenhe
Phone: 619-255-3182
toll free 866-476-2494

 

[Tamalewagon]

Monday’s bond market has opened up slightly following news of a potential terror attack in New York City. The major stock indexes are starting the week with minor gains of 32 points in the Dow and 11 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (2.37), but we may see a slight increase in this morning’s mortgage rates due to weakness in bonds late Friday.

Today has no relevant economic data for the markets to digest, but there is an afternoon event that may affect mortgage rates. That would be the first of this week’s two Treasury auctions that carry the potential to influence rates. 10-year Notes will be sold today while 30-year Bonds go tomorrow. Results of both auctions will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. If they are met with a strong demand from investors, particularly international buyers, we should see strength in the broader bond market and improvements to mortgage pricing during afternoon hours. On the other hand, a weak interest in the securities could lead to an upward revision to rates.

Besides the 30-year Bond auction, tomorrow also has an important economic release. November's Producer Price Index (PPI) will be posted at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow morning. It shows inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the index that are used- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices, giving a more stable reading for analysts to consider. If it reveals stronger than expected readings, indicating that inflationary pressures are rising, the bond market will probably react negatively. That would drive mortgage rates higher. If we see in-line or weaker than expected numbers, the bond market could respond by pushing mortgage rates slightly lower. Analysts are expecting a 0.4% increase in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data.

Overall, Wednesday is the key day of the week due to the release of November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) followed by the FOMC meeting adjournment, Fed economic projections and press conference. The calmest day could be Friday. This week is probably going to be another active week for the markets and mortgage pricing. Focus will be on the inflation-related data and the FOMC events. While the markets are expecting a Fed rate increase, what is still being debated is how many moves the Fed expects to make next year. I am expecting that portion of the FOMC adjournment to have the biggest influence on rates. It, along with the week’s important data, makes it prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Scott Wenhe
Phone: 619-255-3182
Toll Free: 866-476-2494

 

[Tamalewagon]

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following stronger than expected economic data. Stocks are mixed with the Dow up 103 points and the Nasdaq down 2 points. The bond market is currently down 7/32 (2.41), which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point over Monday’s early pricing.

Yesterday’s 10-year Treasury Note auction did not go well with several benchmarks pointing towards a weak level of investor demand. The bond market weakened after results were posted, causing some lenders to revise mortgage rates upward before the end of the day. This doesn’t allow us to be too optimistic about today’s 30-year Bond auction either. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET this afternoon. If it also goes poorly, we could see bonds weaken again and another round of upward rate revisions shortly after. On the other hand, if there is a strong demand in the sale, bonds and mortgage rates may improve slightly before the end of the day.

Today’s only relevant economic release was an important one. November's Producer Price Index (PPI) was posted at 8:30 AM ET, revealing a 0.4% rise in the overall reading and a 0.3% increase in the more important core data. Analysts were expecting to see the 0.4% in the overall reading, but forecasts were calling for only a 0.2% rise in the core data. The core reading is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy costs, giving us a more stable inflation picture in the manufacturing sector of the economy. Therefore, the core reading makes the news negative for bonds and mortgage rates.

Tomorrow is expected to be a very active day for the markets and mortgage rates. It will start with the release November's Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 AM ET. This is the sister release to today's Producer Price Index, except it tracks inflationary pressures at the important consumer level of the economy. It is expected to show a 0.4% rise in the overall reading while the core data is forecasted to show a 0.2% increase. This data is one of the most watched inflation indexes, which is extremely important to long-term securities such as mortgage related bonds. Rising inflation erodes the value of a bond's future fixed interest payments, making them less appealing to investors. It also allows the Fed to be more aggressive with short-term interest rate increases. That translates into falling bond prices and rising mortgage rates. Therefore, weak readings would be favorable for the bond market and mortgage shoppers.

We also have some significant FOMC events coming tomorrow afternoon that can be highly influential on the financial and mortgage markets. The two-day FOMC meeting that began today will adjourn at 2:00 PM ET tomorrow. There is a wide consensus that expects Fed Chair Janet Yellen and friends to make a quarter point upward bump to key short-term interest rates. At the same time their post-meeting statement is made, they will also release revised economic projections. That will be followed by a press conference with Chair Yellen at 2:30 PM ET. Accordingly, expect a very active afternoon in the financial and mortgage markets tomorrow.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Scott Wenhe
Phone: 619-255-3182
Toll Free: 866-476-2494

 

[Tamalewagon]

Macro View on Rates:

Most economists, financial players, the media and the general public expect the Federal Reserve to raise its Overnight Banking Rate this week. At the same time the average person has almost no idea what that means or what it will do to mortgage rates. No one can say with 100% certainty what the long and short term effect of Fed policy on mortgage rates will be but here are a few important details:

• What is the Fed Funds Rate? The Fed Funds Rate is the rate at which banks lend money to each other on an overnight basis.
• Does the Fed does control mortgage rates? NO! Mortgage rates are tied to US Treasury Bonds
• Does a .25 increase in the Fed = a .25 increase in mortgage rates? NO! Wall Street is influenced by the decisions the Fed makes from a high level view on the direction of the economy but investors buy and sell bonds based on their own investment economic strategy & research.
• What rates go up when the Fed raises rates? The Prime interest rate is tied to the Fed Funds rate; credit cards, unsecured bank LOCs, some installment loans and most HELOCs will go up.
• What makes mortgage rates move? If I knew this answer (and the timing of it) I would be ship to shore and not writing this email but here are a few influencers to consider:
  • Bond prices (and yields in inverse direction) are influenced by supply and demand like any other investment
  • US Treasury Bonds are considered the most secure non-cash equivalent investment in the world
  • US Treasury Bonds are the preferred “safe” investment for large investors, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds and foreign governments with surplus cash (China!)
  • The US economy is strong while Europe remains under pressure from Brexit and Asia continues to underperform
  • European and Asian countries are increasing QE (lowering rates & currency values) while the Fed is decreasing QE
  • The US Dollar remains strong on the world currency market

 

[Tamalewagon]

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following favorable results in this morning’s inflation data. The major stock indexes are also showing gains with the Dow up 81 points and the Nasdaq up 22 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32 (2.38), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates slightly. Weakness late yesterday is preventing more of an improvement in this morning

Yesterday’s 30-year Treasury Bond auction went much better than Monday’s 10-year sale did with several benchmarks we use to gauge investor demand showing a decent interest in the securities. The bond market improved slightly after results were posted, but not enough to improve mortgage rates or offset the recent negative tone we are seeing in bonds.

November's Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released at 8:30 AM ET this morning. It showed a 0.4% rise in the overall reading and a 0.1% increase in the more important core data. The overall reading pegged forecasts, but the core data fell short of the 0.2% increase that was expected. The weaker than thought inflation reading is good news for bonds and mortgage-related securities, leading to this morning’s improvement.

This week’s FOMC meeting will adjourn at 2:00 PM ET today. There is a wide consensus that the Fed will raise key short-term interest rates a quarter point today. Along with the post-meeting statement, we will also get to see their revised economic projections. Those will be followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Yellen at 2:30 PM ET. There is a high probability of this afternoon being very active for the financial and mortgage markets.

This report will be updated shortly after the markets have an opportunity to react to the FOMC events. There is highly relevant economic data set for release tomorrow, but it will be addressed in this afternoon’s update.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Scott Wenhe

Phone: 619-255-3182
Toll Free: 866-476-2494

 

[Tamalewagon]

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory, giving back yesterday’s post-FOMC gains. The major stock indexes are showing minor gains of 50 points in the Dow and 11 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 10/32 (2.38%), but we still should see a slight improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates due to strength late yesterday. If your lender improved rates before the end of the day Wednesday, then you should see an increase in this morning’s rates.

Both of this morning’s economic releases gave us unfavorable results, helping to fuel the early selling. The big news was November’s Retail sales report that showed a 0.8% jump in consumer spending. That was well above the 0.3% that was forecasted, meaning consumers spent much more last month than many had thought. Even a secondary reading that excludes more costly and volatile auto transactions came in much stronger than expected (+1.0% vs +0.6%). And if that wasn’t enough, October’s sales figures were revised higher by 0.3%. Because consumer spending makes up a significant portion of the U.S. economy, today’s readings are clearly negative for the bond market and mortgage rates.

The second release of the morning was last week's unemployment figures, also at 8:30 AM ET. They showed that 225,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. That was a decline from the previous week’s 236,000 initial filings and lower than the 239,000 that was expected. Because declining claims points to a stronger employment sector, this was also bad news for mortgage pricing.

Tomorrow has a single moderately important economic report for the markets to digest. November's Industrial Production data will be posted at 9:15 AM ET tomorrow. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. Forecasts are calling for a 0.3% rise in output, indicating modest manufacturing sector strength. A decline would be good news for bonds, while a stronger reading would show manufacturing strength and be considered bad news for rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Scott Wenhe
Office 619-255-3182
Toll Free 866-476-2494

 

[Tamalewagon]

Friday’s bond market has opened in negative territory, reversing a good part of yesterday’s late rally. Stocks are contributing to the morning weakness by posting sizable gains in the major indexes. The Dow is currently up 127 points while the Nasdaq has gained 21 points. The bond market is currently down 6/32 (2.36%), but we still should see a slight improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates due to strength late yesterday.

We saw bonds bounce late yesterday as news spread that one or more Republican Senators may not vote in favor of the tax bill in its current form. Whether or not that is realistic remains to be seen, but just the possibility of there being a problem getting it passed caused bonds to improve Thursday afternoon, leading to many lenders improving rates before the end of the day. If your lender revised rates lower intraday yesterday, you likely will see an increase this morning.

November's Industrial Production data was released at 9:15 AM ET this morning. It showed a 0.2% increase in output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. This was slightly lower than the 0.3% rise that was expected, making the data favorable for mortgage rates. However, this report is considered to be only moderately important. Therefore, its influence on this morning’s rates has been minimal.

Next week brings us a handful of relevant economic releases that may affect mortgage rates, but the most important data comes late in the week. There is nothing of relevance set for Monday, so expect weekend news to drive trading as the new week begins. Of particular interest will be news or rumor related to the tax reform bill, especially anything that hints that the bill may be in jeopardy of passing. Look for details on all of next week’s activities in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Scott Wenhe
Phone: 619-255-3182
Toll Free: 866-476-2494

 

[Tamalewagon]

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory with stocks opening the week with strong gains. The Dow is currently up 194 points while the Nasdaq has gained 58 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32 (2.36%), but strength late Friday should keep this morning’s mortgage rates unchanged from Friday’s early pricing.

There is nothing of importance set for release today, the only day of the week without something relevant to mortgage rates scheduled. The rest of this holiday-shortened week has eight monthly and quarterly economic reports that we will be watching. None are considered key pieces of data, although several carry enough importance to cause changes to mortgage pricing if they show surprises.

November's Housing Starts will start the week’s calendar at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow morning. This data isn't known to be highly influential on bonds or mortgage pricing, but it does give us an indication of housing sector strength by tracking new home groundbreakings. Analysts are expecting to see a small drop in new home starts, indicating weakness in the new home portion of the housing sector. Slowing starts would be favorable for the bond market, although a wide variance is likely needed for the data to cause noticeable movement in the markets or mortgage rates Tuesday morning.

Overall, it is likely going to be another very active week for the financial and mortgage markets. The week starts off slow but picks up momentum quickly. Besides the couple of economic reports set for release the first half, we also have the tax reform vote that may come into play. The markets are expecting it to pass, so a vote in favor of it shouldn’t have too much of an impact on rates. However, any hint of a possible problem getting enough Senate votes in favor should fuel a bond rally. The week’s most important data comes late in the week, so we should get the most movement in rates those days. It is worth noting that the bond market will close early Friday afternoon ahead of next Monday’s Christmas Day holiday and will reopen Tuesday morning. With so much going on this week, it is strongly recommended that you maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Scott Wenhe
Phone: 619-255-3182
Toll Free: 866-476-2494

 

[Tamalewagon]

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory again despite a negative open in stocks. The major stock indexes are showing minor losses of 20 points in the Dow and 8 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 11/32 (2.43%), which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point if comparing to Monday’s morning pricing.

This morning’s sole economic release was November's Housing Starts at 8:30 AM ET. The Commerce Department announced a 3.3% increase in new home groundbreakings, exceeding forecasts. That is an indication the new home portion of the housing sector is stronger than many had thought, making the data slightly negative for bonds and mortgage rates.

Today’s unfavorable economic data is not exactly the source of this morning’s bond selling. The bond market looked to open with minor losses before the report was posted. However, with bonds negative already, the release did contribute to them extending their pre-market losses. As a result, the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield is at a pretty important resistance level (2.43%). It is the high end of the recent trading range. If we close above that level, the possibility of yields and mortgage rates moving upward is relatively high. On the other hand, if this level holds, we may see buyers step up to the plate, driving the 10-year yield back down to mid-2.30’s. Since mortgage rates tend to track bond yields, the latter would be good news for mortgage shoppers.

Tomorrow also has only one economic release that may affect mortgage rates. That will be November’s Existing Home Sales figures at 10:00 AM ET. The National Association of Realtors is expected to announce an increase in home resales last month, indicating housing sector growth. This report will give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. A sizable decline in sales would be considered positive for bonds and mortgage rates because a softening housing market makes broader economic growth more difficult. But unless the actual sales figures vary greatly from forecasts, the results will probably have a minor impact on mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Scott Wenhe
Phone: 619-255-3182
Toll Free: 866-476-2494

 

[Tamalewagon]

Wednesday’s bond market has opened with losses yet again as the negative momentum in bonds continues. Stocks are mixed with the Dow up 53 points and the Nasdaq down 6 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32 (2.48%), which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point if comparing to Tuesday’s morning pricing. We saw bonds weaken late yesterday, causing many lenders to revise rates higher before the end of the day. If your lender did make an upward revision, you should see less of an increase in this morning’s pricing.

November’s Existing Home Sales figures were released at 10:00 AM ET today. The National Association of Realtors announced that home resales rose 5.6% last month, reaching their best level since December 2006. The monthly increase was stronger than analysts were expecting, meaning the housing sector is growing at a faster pace than many had thought. That is a sign of economic strength, making the data bad news for mortgage rates.

As with yesterday’s negative open, today’s bond losses are not a result of today’s economic data. The bond market was showing weakness during pre-market trading and the unfavorable economic data certainly did not help curtail the selling. Today’s losses appear to be a result of last night’s Senate passing of the tax reform bill. Neither the vote nor the result came as a surprise, so its hard to explain why there would be such a negative reaction to it. Still, it appears to be the best candidate as the primary cause of this morning’s bond selling. The hope now is since the bill has been passed by the Senate and should be signed by President Trump this week, it could be become a non-factor in trading. The benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield is not in a good place at 2.48%. If it does not move back below 2.43% soon, we could be in for higher yields and mortgage rates as the year comes to a close.

Tomorrow has a weekly, monthly and quarterly report scheduled for release, but none of the batch are expected to cause much movement in the markets or mortgage rates. The first is last week’s unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET. They are expected to show that 236,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. That would be an increase from the previous week’s 225,000, indicating weakness in the employment sector. The higher the number of claims, the better the news it is for mortgage rates. However, since this is only a weekly snapshot, it takes a significant surprise for the numbers to directly affect mortgage rates.

The quarterly release is the 2nd revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), also at 8:30 AM. The GDP is the total of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is the benchmark reading of economic growth. However, I don't think this data will have an impact on mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from its expected reading. Last month's first revision showed that the economy expanded at a 3.3% annual pace during the quarter and this month's final revision is expected to show the same. A revision higher would be considered bad news for bonds. But since this data is quite aged at this point and 4th quarter numbers will be posted next month, I am not expecting this release to have a noticeable influence on rates.

November's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board at 10:00 AM ET is the final release of the day. This release attempts to measure or predict economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a 0.4% increase, meaning that it is predicting economic growth over the next several months. This probably will not have much influence on bond prices or affect mortgage rates unless it shows a much stronger reading than forecasts. The weaker the reading, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage pricing.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...


Scott Wenhe
Phone: 619-255-3182
Toll Free; 866-476-2494
[email protected]

 

[Tamalewagon]

Thursday’s bond market has opened up slightly with today’s minor economic data showing favorable results. The major stock indexes are showing more gains with the Dow up 81 points and the Nasdaq up 4 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (2.49%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates at yesterday’s early levels. If your lender revised higher late yesterday, you should see a slight improvement this morning.

The first of this morning’s economic releases was last week’s unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET. They showed that 245,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, up from the previous week’s 225,000 initial filings. Analysts were expecting to see 236,000 claims, so we can consider the data good news for bonds and mortgage rates. Unfortunately, this is only a weekly snapshot, meaning it has had little impact on today’s rates.

The second revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was also released at 8:30 AM. It revealed that the economy grew at an annual pace of 3.2% last quarter, down slightly from the previous estimate of 3.3%. Because bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions, data pointing to softer economic activity than previously thought is good news for mortgage rates. However, this data is now aged and the current quarter’s activity will be released next month. Therefore, we are seeing little reaction to this data also.

November’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) came at 10:00 AM ET. The Conference Board announced a 0.4% increase, matching forecasts. The increase means the indicators are predicting modest economic growth over the next several months. Since there was no surprise, the news hasn’t caused bonds or mortgage pricing to move.

The week’s calendar closes with four pieces of economic data tomorrow morning. The day starts with November's Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET. This data gives us an important measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items or products that are expected to last at least three years such as appliances, airplanes and electronics. Analysts are expecting the report to show a 2.1% rise in new orders. A decline in new orders would indicate that the manufacturing sector was weaker than many had thought. This would be good news for the bond market and should help push mortgage rates lower. However, a large jump in orders could lead to mortgage rates moving higher early tomorrow. This data is known to be quite volatile from month-to-month though, so it is not unusual to see large headline numbers in this report.

Next up is November's Personal Income and Outlays data, also at 8:30 AM ET. It will give us an important measurement of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data usually has a noticeable impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.4% increase in income and a 0.4% increase in spending. If this report reveals weaker than expected readings, we could see the bond market improve and mortgage rates drop slightly tomorrow morning, especially if the Durable Goods Orders report gives us favorable results also.

The third report of the day tomorrow will be the revised University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for December at 10:00 AM ET. Current forecasts are calling for a slight increase (97.1 from 96.8), meaning surveyed consumers felt a little better about their own financial and employment situations than they did in November. Bond traders would prefer to see a decline because waning confidence usually means consumers are less likely to make a large purchase in the near future, restricting economic growth.

November's New Home Sales data is the final economic report of the week. This report gives us another measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. It is the sister report of yesterday's Existing Home Sales report, but covers a much smaller portion of the housing market than that one does. A weakening housing sector is considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because broader economic growth is less likely in the immediate future. Since bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions, a large decline in sales would be considered favorable for bond prices and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in sales of newly constructed homes. Ideally, we would like to see a large drop in sales.

The bond market will close at 2:00 PM ET tomorrow afternoon ahead of Monday’s Christmas Day holiday and will reopen Tuesday morning. The stock markets are set to be open for a full day of trading tomorrow and closed Monday, although we can expect to see light trading as many traders will be home for the holiday tomorrow also.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...


Scott Wenhe

Phone: 619-255-3182
Toll Free: 866-476-2494
email: [email protected]

 

[Tamalewagon]

Markets In A Minute

http://mymortgagestatus.info/miam/?...37531857D8D26F78D26AE29420CFA4B0473F12C7F1210

 

[Tamalewagon]

Learn More About Your Neighborhood - Enter your address.

https://interactives.myuniquegreeti...10EB60303EDCB2CC652B30677CFC3D4CCD90EA24C77DA

 

[Tamalewagon]

Friday’s bond market has opened flat following a batch of mixed economic releases. Stocks are also calm this morning with the Dow down 7 points and the Nasdaq down 8 points. The bond market is currently down 1/32 (2.48%), but strength late yesterday should equate to a slight improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates.

Today’s holiday-shortened session has four relevant economic reports for the markets to digest. First on the schedule was November's Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET. The Commerce Department announced that new orders for big-ticket products rose 1.3% last month when analysts were expecting to see 2.1%. A secondary reading that tracks orders excluding more costly and volatile transportation orders, such as new airplanes, fell 0.1%. That reading was expected to rise 0.4%. This data is known to be quite volatile, so the variance between the actual and forecasted numbers isn’t as important as it would be with other reports. Still, the weaker than predicted readings are favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates because they indicate that manufacturing activity was not as strong as thought.

Also at 8:30 AM was the release of November's Personal Income and Outlays data. The Commerce Department gave us this data also, but the results were not as favorable. They showed a 0.3% rise in income while spending rose 0.6%. Forecasts were calling for a 0.4% increase in income, meaning consumers had less money to spend than thought. The bad news was that the spending was expected to rise only 0.4%. In short, consumers earned more than they did in October, although not as much as predicted, and they spent more than thought. Because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, the beat in that reading makes the report bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

The third report of the morning December’s revised University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM ET. It came in at 95.9, falling short of the 96.8 that was announced earlier this month. Analysts were expecting to see 97.1, meaning consumers were less optimistic about their own financial situations than they were last month. That is good news for mortgage rates because waning confidence usually translates into softer levels of consumer spending.

Lastly, November's New Home Sales data was also posted at 10:00 AM. It revealed a whopping increase of 17.5% in sales of newly constructed homes last month. This was significantly stronger than forecasts, which were calling for a decline in sales, and pushed the number of sales to their highest level in 25 years. That is a sign of a strengthening housing sector, albeit a small portion of the overall sector. Fortunately, this is not considered to carry a lot of significance or we could have seen a negative reaction in bonds.

The bond market will close at 2:00 PM ET today ahead of Monday’s Christmas Day holiday and will reopen Tuesday morning. The stock markets are set to be open for a full day of trading but will be closed Monday also. Next week is extremely light in terms of events scheduled that are likely to affect mortgage rates. Look for details on what the week brings in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

We would like to take this opportunity to with you and yours a wonderful holiday!

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...


Scott Wenhe

Phone: 619-255-3182
Toll Free: 866-476-2494
Email: [email protected]

 

[Tamalewagon]

Merry Christmas RDP'ers.

Tuesday’s bond market has opened up slightly with very little to drive trading today. The major stock indexes are starting the holiday-shortened week mixed with the Dow up 6 points and the Nasdaq down 35 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32 (2.47%), which may improve this morning’s mortgage rates slightly from Friday’s early levels. We saw a bit of strength before the early close Friday and the markets were closed yesterday due to the Christmas Day holiday.

This week’s only relevant monthly economic report comes late tomorrow morning when the Conference Board will post their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for December. This is a fairly important release because it measures consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are more confident about their personal financial and employment situations, they are more apt to make a large purchase in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely by market participants and can affect mortgage rate direction. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in confidence from November's reading of 129.5. Analysts are expecting Wednesday's release to show a reading of 128.0, meaning consumers felt less optimistic about their own financial situation than they did in November. The lower the reading, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage pricing.

We also have the first of this week’s two Treasury auctions that may influence mortgage rates. Tomorrow's 5-year and Thursday's 7-year Note sales have the potential slightly affect mortgage pricing. If these sales are met with a strong demand, bond prices may rise enough to lead to improvements in mortgage rates shortly after the results are posted. But a lackluster demand from investors may create bond selling and upward revisions to mortgage rates tomorrow and/or Thursday. Results will be announced at 1:00 PM each day, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading.

Overall, I am expecting tomorrow to be the most active day for mortgage rates, although I don't see much to be worried about in this week's calendar. It is difficult to label any day as the calmest with several days of nothing scheduled to drive trading. Still, the markets can get active at any time, so please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...





Scott Wenhe
Phone: 619-255-3182
Toll Free: 866-476-2494
Email: [email protected]

 

[Tamalewagon]

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory due partly to weaker than expected economic news. Stocks are posting an uneventful open so far with the Dow up 3 points and the Nasdaq up 11 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32 (2.44%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

December’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) was posted at 10:00 AM ET this morning. The Conference Board, who is a New York-based business research group and not a governmental agency, announced a reading of 122.1, falling well short of the 128.0 that was expected. This was also a sizable decline from November’s revised 128.6, meaning consumers were much less optimistic about their financial and employment situations than they were last month. That makes the data good news for bonds and mortgage rates because waning confidence usually translates into softer levels of consumer spending, restricting economic growth.

We also have the first of this week’s two Treasury auctions that may influence mortgage rates taking place today. 5-year Notes will be sold today while 7-year Notes go tomorrow. These sales have the potential to slightly affect mortgage pricing. If they are met with a strong demand from investors, bond prices may rise enough to lead to improvements in mortgage rates shortly after the results are posted. But a lackluster interest in the securities may create bond selling and upward revisions to mortgage rates later today and/or tomorrow. Results will be announced at 1:00 PM each day, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading.

Besides the 7-year Note auction, the only relevant event scheduled tomorrow is the weekly unemployment update. It is expected to show that 238,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were made last week, down from the previous week’s 245,000 initial filings. Declining claims is a sign that the employment sector is strengthening. Therefore, the higher the number of new filings, the better the news it is for mortgage rates. It is worth noting that this is only a weekly snapshot, so it usually takes a wide variance from forecasts to have a noticeable impact on mortgage pricing.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Scott Wenhe
Phone: 619-255-3182
Toll Free: 866-476-2494
Email: [email protected]

 

[Tamalewagon]

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory, giving back part of yesterday’s unexpected gains. The major stock indexes are showing gains of 35 points in the Dow and 3 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 4/32 (2.42%), but we still should see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point due to strength yesterday that picked up momentum as the day progressed. Some lenders may have already reflected this improvement in revised pricing Wednesday afternoon.

Yesterday’s 5-year Treasury Note auction did not go poorly but hardly can be considered strong. Most of the benchmarks we use to gauge investor demand showed an average level of interest in the securities. It is safe to say that this auction was not the cause of yesterday’s afternoon improvement in bond prices and mortgage rates. Bonds had already improved from morning levels before the results were posted.

Last week’s unemployment figures were posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning, revealing 245,000 new claims for benefits. This matched the previous week’s total but was higher than the 238,000 initial filings that was forecasted. Since rising claims indicates employment sector weakness, the higher than thought number of claims is good news for bonds and mortgage pricing. However, because this is only a weekly snapshot, it does not carry much importance unless its results vary greatly from expectations. Accordingly, we are seeing the news have little impact on today’s trading or mortgage rates.

There is also a 7-year Treasury Note auction today that has the potential to influence mortgage rates if it shows an overly strong or weak demand from investors. There are four regular Treasury auctions that we follow as they have the greatest chance of affecting mortgage rates. This week had the two less important sales of the four. The 10-year Note and 30-year Bond auctions usually affect mortgage rates more than the 5 and 7-year Note sales do. So, it will not be surprising if we don’t see much of a reaction to today’s sale. A strong demand for the securities is good news for the broader bond market while a weak interest could cause a slight upward revision to mortgage pricing this afternoon. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, meaning if there is a reaction, it will come during early afternoon trading.

Tomorrow has nothing of importance set for release. It is a full trading for stocks but a shortened day for bonds. The bond market is expected to close at 2:00 PM tomorrow while all markets will be closed Monday for the New Year’s Day holiday. It is fairly common to see some pressure in the bond market before holidays as investors sell holdings to protect themselves over the extended weekend. This scenario usually has only a minor influence on mortgage rates though.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Scott Wenhe
Phone: 619-255-3182
Toll Free: 866-476-2494
email: [email protected]

 

[Tamalewagon]

Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, looking to close the year on an encouraging note. Stocks are calm but showing minor losses of 15 points in the Dow and 11 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 4/32 (2.42%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Yesterday’s 7-year Treasury Note auction followed Wednesday’s 5-year Note sale with investor demand for the securities best labeled at an average level. Without an overly strong or poor demand from investors, the results had little impact on afternoon trading yesterday. That means mortgage rates were unaffected by the auction. The 10-year Note and 30-year Bond auctions, scheduled for two weeks from now, should have a heavier influence on bonds trading and mortgage pricing.

There is nothing on today’s calendar that is expected to have an impact on mortgage rates. It should be a pretty quiet day in the markets as some trader will likely be heading home for the holiday weekend. Today is a full trading for stocks but the bond market is expected to close at 2:00 PM ET today. All markets will be closed Monday for the New Year’s Day holiday. It is fairly common to see some pressure in the bond market before holidays as investors sell holdings to protect themselves over the extended weekend. This scenario usually has only a minor influence, if any, on mortgage rates though.

Next week doesn’t bring us a large number of economic reports, but most of what is scheduled is important. There are two highly important monthly reports along with a couple that are moderately significant and the minutes from this month’s FOMC meeting. Look for details on all of next week’s activities in our weekly preview. Due to the holiday and the fact that Tuesday has nothing of relevance scheduled, the weekly preview and Tuesday morning’s daily report will be combined.

We would like to take this opportunity to wish everyone a wonderful, but safe holiday weekend and a Happy New Year!

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...


Scott Wenhe
Phone: 619-255-3182
Toll Free: 866-476-2494
email: [email protected]

 

[Tamalewagon]

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory as traders return from the holiday weekend. Stocks are contributing to early bond weakness by starting the new year with noticeable gains. The Dow is currently up 89 points while the Nasdaq has gained 55 points. The bond market is currently down 11/32 (2.44%), which should push this morning’s mortgage rates slightly higher than last Friday’s early pricing. Bond strength before Friday’s early close is helping to limit the impact this morning’s bond selling is having on today’s mortgage rates.

The rest of the week brings us the release of four monthly economic reports that are relevant to the bond market and mortgage rates with two of them considered to be extremely important. In addition to those reports, we also will get the minutes from the last FOMC meeting that have the potential to influence the bond market and quite possibly mortgage rates. All of these events come over just three days. The markets were closed yesterday in observance of the New Year's Day holiday and there was nothing scheduled for today.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will start the week's activities by posting their manufacturing index for December late tomorrow morning. This highly important index measures manufacturer sentiment. A lower reading than November’s 58.2 fewer surveyed manufacturing executives felt that business improved during the month than those who did in November. That indicates a softening manufacturing sector rather than growth. Analysts are currently expecting to see a 58.0 reading in this month's release, meaning that sentiment slipped a little last month. A smaller reading will be good news for the bond market and mortgage shoppers, while a higher than expected reading could lead to higher mortgage rates tomorrow morning as it would point towards a stronger manufacturing sector.

Also Wednesday is the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. They will give market participants insight to the Fed's thinking and concerns regarding the economy, inflation and monetary policy. It is one of those pieces of information that may cause a great deal of volatility in the markets or be a non-factor, depending on what they show. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so they won't affect the markets or mortgage rates until afternoon hours. The last FOMC meeting was followed by revised Fed forecasts and a press conference by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, so the possibility of seeing something unexpected is minimal. Still, market participants will be looking for any tidbits about the decision to raise key short-term interest rates and when the next move may be made.

Thursday’s only monthly release is the ADP Employment report before the markets open, which has the potential to cause some movement in the markets if it shows much stronger or weaker numbers. This report tracks changes in private-sector jobs of the company's clients that use them for payroll processing. While it does draw attention, it is my opinion that it is overrated and is not a true reflection of the broader employment picture. It also is not very accurate in predicting results of the monthly government report that follows a couple days later. Still, because we sometimes see a noticeable reaction to the report, it is on our calendar. Forecasts are calling for an increase of 190,000 new payrolls. Good news for mortgage rates would be a much smaller increase in payrolls.

The big news of the week will come at 8:30 AM Friday when the Labor Department will post December's employment figures. The Employment report is arguably the single most important monthly release we see. It gives us the national unemployment rate, the number of jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings, which is a key measure of wage inflation. Rising unemployment, a decline in payrolls and flat earnings would be ideal news for the bond market. Current forecasts call for a 0.1% decline in the unemployment rate, bringing it to 4.0% while 188,000 new jobs added to the economy and an increase in earnings of 0.3%. If we see weaker than expected results, the bond market should rally and stocks should fall, improving mortgage rates noticeably Friday. However, stronger than expected readings will likely raise optimism about the economy, pushing stocks and mortgage rates higher.

Closing out the week's calendar is Factory Orders report late Friday morning. This data gives us a fairly important measurement of manufacturing sector strength. It is similar to the Durable Goods Orders release that was posted just before Christmas, except this report includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Durable goods are items that are expected to last three or more years such as appliances, electronics and airplanes. Examples of non-durable goods are food and clothing. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 1.4% in new orders. This report generally does not have a huge impact on the bond market or mortgage rates, but it can influence bond trading enough to create a minor change in rates if it shows a sizable variance from forecasts. A large decline would be favorable news for mortgage pricing. Primary focus Friday will be on the Employment report though.

Overall, Friday is the key day of the week with the almighty Employment report being posted, but tomorrow also has a decent chance of being pretty active. Please keep an eye on the markets and maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate as a couple of this week's events have the potential to cause severe market volatility.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...


Scott Wenhe
Phone: 619-255-3182
Toll Free: 866-476-2494
Email: [email protected]

 

[Tamalewagon]

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite stronger than expected economic news. The major stock indexes are continuing their new year rally, pushing the Dow up 61 points and the Nasdaq up 39 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32 (2.44%), which should slightly improve this morning’s mortgage rates. Some lenders revised rates upward late yesterday due to bond market weakness. If your lender did revise higher Tuesday afternoon, you should see more of an improvement in this morning’s pricing.

Today’s first mortgage-relevant event was the release the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index for December at10:00 AM ET. It came in at 59.7, exceeding forecasts and up from November’s 58.2. The increase indicates manufacturer sentiment was stronger than many had thought, making the news unfavorable for bonds and mortgage rates. This is considered to be an important release, so the muted bond response to the reading is fortunate for mortgage shoppers.

The minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting will be released later today. They will give market participants insight to the Fed's thinking and concerns regarding the economy, inflation and monetary policy. It is one of those pieces of information that may cause a great deal of volatility in the markets or be a non-factor, depending on what they show. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so they won't affect the markets or mortgage rates until afternoon hours. The last FOMC meeting was followed by revised Fed forecasts and a press conference by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, so the possibility of seeing something unexpected is minimal. Still, market participants will be looking for any tidbits about the decision to raise key short-term interest rates and when the next move may be made.

Tomorrow has two reports scheduled for release. Both are employment-related and will come during early morning hours. First is the ADP Employment report for December at 8:15 AM ET, which tracks changes in private-sector jobs, using the company's clients that use them for payroll processing as a base. While it does draw attention, it is my opinion that it is overrated and is not a true reflection of the broader employment picture. It also is not very accurate in predicting results of the monthly government report that follows a couple days later. Still, because we sometimes see a noticeable reaction to the report, it is on our calendar. Forecasts are calling for an increase of 190,000 new payrolls. Good news for mortgage rates would be a much smaller increase in payrolls.

Last week’s unemployment figures will be posted at 8:30 AM ET. They are expected to show that 239,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, down from the previous week’s 245,000 initial claims. Since rising claims hints at employment sector weakness, the higher the number of initial filings the better the news it is for mortgage rates. It is worth noting though, that because this is only a weekly report, it likely will have little impact on tomorrow’s mortgage rates unless it shows a significant variance.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Scott Wenhe
Office: 619-255-3182
Email: [email protected]

 

[Tamalewagon]

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following mixed economic news and another rally in stocks. The major stock indexes are showing sizable gains with the Dow up 134 points, crossing 25,000 for the first time, while the Nasdaq has gained 15 points. The bond market is currently down 11/32 (2.48%), which should cause this morning’s mortgage rates to come in approximately .125 of a discount point higher than yesterday’s morning pricing. Strength in bonds late yesterday is helping to limit this morning’s increase in rates.

Yesterday afternoon’s release of the FOMC meeting minutes showed a couple of interesting points. For starters, the projected tax reform plan (pre-passage at the time the meeting adjourned) appeared to contribute to the Fed revising their GDP predictions upward. And there was discussion about the potential of the economy growing too quickly under certain conditions, particularly if inflation does strengthen as a result of the tax reform. Another point was disagreement amongst members on the number of rate hikes that may be needed next year. With no clear indication about what the Fed may do this year, the market response to the minutes was fairly limited. It is worth noting that the FOMC meeting at the end of this month will be Chair Janet Yellen’s last and while no increase to key rates is expected at that time, there will be a significant change in voting members that appear to lean the group to a more hawkish stance. That could mean a period of more aggressive monetary policy tightening the next couple years.

Today’s economic data gave us mixed results with the more important of the two being negative. That would be December’s ADP Employment report at 8:15 AM ET. It showed an increase of 250,000 private-sector jobs during the month, exceeding forecasts of 190,000 by a pretty wide margin. Because the unexpected number of new payrolls and the fact we will get the monthly government report tomorrow, we are seeing a noticeable negative reaction to the news in this morning’s bond trading.

Last week’s unemployment figures were also posted early this morning, revealing 250,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. That is higher than the 239,000 that was expected and an increase from the previous week’s revised 247,000 initial filings. The increase is a sign of a weakening employment sector, making the data favorable for bonds and mortgage rates. Unfortunately, the ADP report is a monthly release compared to this weekly snapshot, so it is drawing much more attention.

Tomorrow’s major release is December’s Employment report at 8:30 AM ET. It will give us December's employment figures and is arguably the single most important monthly release we see. Important readings in the report are the national unemployment rate, the number of jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings, which is a key measure of wage inflation. Rising unemployment, a decline in payrolls and flat earnings would be ideal news for the bond market. Current forecasts call for a 0.1% decline in the unemployment rate, bringing it to 4.0% while 188,000 new jobs added to the economy and an increase in earnings of 0.3%. If we see weaker than expected results, the bond market should rally and stocks should fall, improving mortgage rates noticeably. However, stronger than expected readings will likely raise optimism about the economy, pushing stocks and mortgage rates higher.

Closing out the week's calendar is Factory Orders report at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning. This data gives us a fairly important measurement of manufacturing sector strength. It is similar to the Durable Goods Orders release that was posted just before Christmas, except this report includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Durable goods are items that are expected to last three or more years such as appliances, electronics and airplanes. Examples of non-durable goods are food and clothing. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 1.4% in new orders. This report generally does not have a huge impact on the bond market or mortgage rates, but it can influence bond trading enough to create a minor change in rates if it shows a sizable variance from forecasts. A large decline would be favorable news for mortgage pricing. Primary focus will be on the Employment report though.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Scott Wenhe
office: 619-255-3182
email: [email protected]

 

[Tamalewagon]

Why it is better to go with a mortgage broker instead of a direct lender:

Why You Should Consider a Licensed Mortgage Broker

Obtain the Best Rates & Lowest Closing Costs

When you are ready to purchase a home, it makes sense to negotiate from the strongest position possible. In a strong real estate market, sellers can be more selective in the final buyer they choose to negotiate with. In such a crazed seller's market, it's not uncommon for a home seller to receive multiple offers on their property. With that said, there are certain things you can do to make certain that your offer is the one Seller goes with.

The vast majority of Purchaser's today go about the process entirely wrong, putting themselves at an overwhelming disadvantage!

Let's look at this from the Seller's perspective for a moment:
If you were the Seller and had multiple offers on your property, all things being equal, would you accept the one with Certificate of Financing Approval or the one that was still Conditional on Financing? The answer is obvious. Why then, do so many buyers wait to start the financing until after they have found the home?

Lastly, from a cost savings perspective...

As a prospective purchaser, it makes all the more sense to start the financing early on so you can get a firm handle on your interest rate and estimate of points and closing costs. If you do this before finding a home, you are not under any time constraints and are less likely to over pay like a buyer who has found a home and is under strict time constraints.

Should you decide that you want to get pre-approved, simply fill out the form at www.wmrloans.com and a certified mortgage professional can assist you in getting the absolute best rate and lowest closing costs possible.

 

[Tamalewagon]

Monday’s bond market has opened fairly flat as the new week starts with little to driving trading. Stocks are mixed with the Dow down 50 points and the Nasdaq up 5 points. The bond market is currently up 1/32 (2.47%), but weakness late Friday is likely going to lead to this morning’s mortgage rates being approximately .125 of a discount point higher than Friday’s early pricing.

There is nothing of importance taking place today or tomorrow that is expected to affect mortgage rates. The rest of the week has only three monthly economic reports that are relevant to the bond market and mortgage pricing. Most of what is being released is considered to be highly important and all of it is set for two days. In addition to the data, there are two Treasury auctions that we need to watch.

This week’s monthly data includes December’s Producer Price Index (Thursday) along with Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index (Friday). The Treasury auctions will take place Wednesday and Thursday. Therefore, we can expect to see the most movement in rates the latter part of the week.

Overall, look for Friday to be the most active day for mortgage rates, although we should see some movement Thursday also. It is my opinion that the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield is going to make a big move in the very near future. If it breaks above 2.50%, we may see an upward trend in yields and mortgage rates begin. On the other hand, breaking below 2.42% is likely to trigger a larger move lower, improving mortgage rates. We should start hearing more talk about the flattening yield curve also, where the difference in shorter-term and long-term yields minimize. Historically, a flattening curve has preceded an economic slowdown, so it is something we should be paying attention to. There are a couple different theories in the markets as to why the yield curve is where it is right now. However, if history repeats itself again, this would be a very good sign for mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Scott Wenhe
619-255-3182
[email protected]

 

[Tamalewagon]

Tuesday’s bond market has opened well in negative territory, pushing yields and mortgage rates higher. The major stock indexes are mixed with the Dow up 57 points and the Nasdaq down 4 points. The bond market is currently down 12/32 (2.52%), which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

Today has no relevant economic data scheduled for release. We are seeing a negative reaction to some comments made by overseas central bankers and an extension to overnight selling. There also could be some pre-auction selling involved as participants prepare for this week’s auctions. More importantly though, the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield is right at a very important threshold this morning. If it moves above 2.52%, there is little to stop it from going above 2.60%. Since mortgage rates track bond yields, that would translate into higher mortgage rates. In other words, the next day or so is critical for mortgage rates direction, especially with some very important economic data coming later this week.

This week’s economic calendar doesn’t start until Thursday. However, we do have a couple of Treasury auctions scheduled that are likely to affect mortgage rates. They will be held tomorrow and Thursday when 10-year Notes and 30-year Bonds are sold respectively. The 10-year sale is the more important of the two as it will give us a better indication for demand of mortgage-related securities. If the sales are met with a strong demand from investors, we should see the bond market move higher during afternoon trading the days of the auctions. But a lackluster interest from buyers, particularly international investors, would indicate a waning appetite for longer-term U.S. securities and lead to broader bond selling. The selling in bonds would result in upward revisions to mortgage rates. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each day, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...


Scott Wenhe
Phone: 619-255-3182
Email: [email protected]

 

[Tamalewagon]

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory again as the bond sell-off continues. Stocks are also in negative ground with the Dow down 40 points and the Nasdaq down 35 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32 (2.58%), which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by another .250 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic data being posted this morning, but we do have a Treasury auction taking place that has the potential to affect mortgage rates. Today’s sale is for 10-year Treasury Notes followed by 30-year Bonds tomorrow. Results of today’s sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during early afternoon trading. There often is some pre-auction bond selling as participants prepare for the sales. As long as the sale goes well, it is common to see those losses recovered. But a lackluster interest from buyers, particularly international investors, would indicate a waning appetite for longer-term U.S. securities and lead to more selling. It is worth noting that this morning’s weakness goes well beyond pre-auction preparation, meaning even a strong sale likely will not erase all of this morning’s losses.

Tomorrow does have a couple of pieces of economic data for the markets to digest. The first is much important than the other. That will be December's Producer Price Index (PPI) at 8:30 AM ET. The PPI is important to the markets and mortgage rates because it measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.2% rise in the overall reading and a 0.2% increase in the more important core reading that excludes volatile food and energy prices. A larger than expected increase in the core reading could mean higher mortgage rates since strengthening inflation is bad news for the bond market. It erodes the value of a bond's future fixed interest payments, making them less appealing to investors and also allows the Fed to be more aggressive with rate hikes. As a result, they are sold at a discount to offset the drop in value, which drives their yields higher. And since mortgage rates follow bond yields, rising inflation usually translates into higher interest rates for borrowers.

Also being posted early tomorrow morning is last week’s unemployment figures. They will give us a measurement of employment sector strength but are not considered to be key numbers because it is only a weekly snapshot. Analysts are expecting to see that 248,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This would be a small decline from the previous week’s 250,000 initial filings. Good news would be an increase as rising claims is a sign of weakness in the sector. However, the PPI should draw much more attention than this release.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Scott Wenhe
Phone: 619-255-3182
Email: [email protected]

 

[Tamalewagon]

Thursday’s bond market has opened down slightly despite favorable economic news. Stocks may be contributing to bond trading with gains of 94 points in the Dow and 27 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 2/32 (2.56%), but we still should see an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point over yesterday’s morning rates. This is due to strength late in the day Wednesday. If your lender improved rates yesterday afternoon, you likely will see no further improvement this morning.

Yesterday’s 10-year Treasury Note auction went very well. The benchmarks we use to gauge investor interest in the securities showed a strong demand. That news helped bonds to improve during afternoon trading yesterday. It also allows us to be optimistic about today’s 30-year Bond sale. Results of it will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. Another strong sale could help improve bonds again this afternoon, possibly leading to a slight improvement in mortgage rates.

December's Producer Price Index (PPI) was posted at 8:30 AM ET, revealing a 0.1% decline in both the overall and core readings. These were well below the 0.2% that was expected for both, meaning inflationary pressures were much softer at the manufacturing level of the economy last month than many had thought. That is good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Also released early this morning was last week’s unemployment figures. They showed that 261,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was the highest number of new claims filed in almost 4 months, hinting at a softening employment sector. That is also good news for bonds and mortgage pricing, but because this is only a weekly snapshot, it hasn’t had much of an influence on the markets.

Tomorrow has two important economic reports that we need to watch. The first is December's Retail Sales data at 8:30 AM ET. This Commerce Department report measures consumer spending by tracking sales at U.S. retail level establishments. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely. Rising consumer sales fuels expectations for broader economic growth that makes long-term bonds less attractive to investors. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.4% increase in December's sales. A smaller increase would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates because it would hint at weaker than thought economic growth.

The second report of the day and final release of the week will be December's Consumer Price Index (CPI), also at 8:30 AM tomorrow. This is one of the more important monthly reports for the bond market each month since it measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy. As with today’s PPI, there are two readings in the release. The overall index is expected to rise 0.1% from November's reading while the core data rose 0.2%. Weaker than expected readings would be favorable news and should lead to bond strength and lower mortgage rates, assuming the Retail Sales report doesn’t give us negative results.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Scott Wenhe
Phone: 619-255-3182
toll free: 866-476-2494
email: [email protected]

 

[Tamalewagon]

Markets In A Minute:

http://mymortgagestatus.info/miam/?...EBE10A568B67AF8B4312EB9453FB52B2BE6963D9EB296

 

[Tamalewagon]

Friday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following stronger than expect inflation data. The major stock indexes are showing sizable gains with the Dow up 151 points and the Nasdaq up 18 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32 (2.56%), but we should see only a slight increase in this morning’s mortgage rates if comparing to yesterday’s early pricing. Bond strength Thursday afternoon is preventing more of an upward change in today’s rates. However, if your lender did revise rates lower intraday yesterday, you should see an increase in this morning’s pricing by the same amount.

Yesterday’s 30-year Treasury Bond auction was strong, following suit of Wednesday’s 10-year Note sale. That led to afternoon improvements in bonds, causing many lenders to improve mortgage rates mid-afternoon. It is that improvement that is softening the impact of this morning’s bond losses.

There were two pieces of important economic data this morning. In the bad news column was December's Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 AM. It showed only a 0.1% increase in the overall reading but a larger than expected 0.3% rise in the more important core data. Analysts were expecting to see a 0.2% rise in both. The weaker overall reading is slightly favorable for bonds and mortgage rates. However, the stronger than forecasted core data, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, showed that inflationary pressures were stronger at the consumer level of the economy than many had thought. Rising inflation makes bonds less attractive to investors and allows the Fed to be more aggressive with their rate hikes.

The second piece of data posted this morning was also considered to be important, but it showed no surprise. The Commerce Department announced that retail-level sales rose 0.4% last month, pegging expectations. Even a secondary reading that tracks sales excluding more costly and volatile auto transaction, matched forecasts. The lack of a favorable surprise in this report allows the CPI to be the sole focus of this morning’s trading.

Next week doesn’t have too much scheduled that we need to be concerned with. The calendar includes a few moderately important economic releases and the Fed Beige Book release. The financial and mortgage markets will be closed Monday in observance of the Martin Luther King Day holiday and will reopen for regular trading Tuesday. There is no early close in the bond market today. Look for details on all of next week’s activities in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...


Scott Wenhe
Phone: 619-255-3182
Toll Free: 866-476-2494
Email: [email protected]

 

[Tamalewagon]

Tuesday’s bond market has opened up slightly despite a sizable stock rally to start the week. The major stock indexes are posting strong gains with the Dow up 248 points and the Nasdaq up 55 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (2.54%), which with strength late Friday should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point if comparing to Friday’s early pricing. If your lender revised rates lower Friday afternoon, then you should see little change to this morning’s rates. The financial markets were closed yesterday for the Martin Luther King holiday.

There is nothing of relevance to mortgage rates taking place today. The rest of the week brings us the release of four pieces of monthly economic data for the markets to digest, with none of them considered to be highly important for mortgage rates. We also will be watching events surrounding the potential government shutdown that will take place Friday night if no deal is made in Washington D.C.

Activities start with December's Industrial Production report at 9:15 AM ET tomorrow. This data measures output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities, giving us an indication of manufacturing sector strength or weakness. Current forecasts are calling for an increase in production of 0.4% from November's level. A weaker reading would be considered good news for bonds and could help lower mortgage rates as it would point towards a manufacturing sector that was softer than many had thought.

Also tomorrow is the Federal Reserve's Beige Book at 2:00 PM ET. This report is named simply after the color of its cover and details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by Fed region. Since the Fed relies heavily on it during their FOMC meetings, its results can have a fairly big impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates if it reveals any surprises. Of particular interest is information regarding inflation, unemployment or future hiring. If there is a reaction to the report, it will come during mid-afternoon trading.

Overall, no day clearly stands out as the most important for mortgage rates. Tomorrow is a decent candidate with two reports set for release, but none of this week’s data is considered highly important. We could see movement in mortgage pricing multiple days, although it is likely to be in small increments rather than large noticeable moves. Despite the lack of key data, it still would be prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Scott Wenhe
[email protected]
Toll Free: 866-476-2494

 

[Tamalewagon]

MBS HWY daily wrap:

Stocks have ended the day lower. The Dow closed down 10.33 at 25,792.86 and the S&P 500 closed down 9.82 at 2,776.42. Mortgage Bonds ended the session near unchanged levels. This morning the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, which shows the health of the Manufacturing sector in the New York region, was released. Today’s report, which was for January, showed a reading of 17.7, which was a slight decrease from last month’s 18.0 and lower than expectations of 19.0. The Index is now at its lowest level since July. Within the report, New Orders fell from 19 to 11.9 and Employment fell sharply from 22.9 to 3.8. Price Pressures rose by 6.5 points, while prices received almost doubled from 11.6 to 21.7, which is the highest level in 6 years. Economic Data Empire State Manufacturing: Actual = 17.7; Consensus = 19; Prior = 18 Upcoming Events It’s a relatively quiet shortened economic news week week, highlighted by the NAHB Housing Market Index on Wednesday and Housing Starts on Thursday. Technical Picture Mortgage Bonds are still trading in the middle of the range between support at 101.868 and overhead resistance at 102.157…but Bonds did test support at 102.157 several times throughout the day. The strong floor of support did hold, at least for now. throughout the day. The 10-year Treasury Note Yield is trading at 2.539% and a negative stochastic crossover has begun to form, which would portend lower Yields ahead. We will look for a confirmation tomorrow.

 

[Tamalewagon]

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following more stock strength and much stronger than expected economic data. The major stock indexes are showing gains of 108 points in the Dow and 21 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 4/32 (2.55%), which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point if comparing to Tuesday’s early pricing.

December's Industrial Production report was this morning’s only relevant economic data, coming at 9:15 AM ET. It showed a surprising jump of 0.9% in output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities, indicating strength in the manufacturing sector. Because analysts were expecting to see a much small increase, we can consider the data bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

The Federal Reserve will release their Beige Book at 2:00 PM ET today. This report is named simply after the color of its cover and details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by Fed region. Since the Fed relies heavily on it during their FOMC meetings, its results can have a fairly big impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates if it reveals any surprises. Of particular interest is information regarding inflation, unemployment or future hiring. If there is a reaction to the report, it will come during mid-afternoon trading.

Tomorrow has two relatively minor pieces of data scheduled for release. The first is December's Housing Starts at 8:30 AM ET. It helps us measure housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand by tracking construction starts of new homes. It is not considered to be one of the more important releases each month, so I don't see it causing much movement in mortgage rates, but does carry the potential to affect trading and rates if it shows a significant surprise. Analysts are expecting to see a decline in new home starts between November and December.

Also being posted early tomorrow morning is last week’s unemployment figures. They are expected to show that 251,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. That would be a decline from the previous week’s 261,000, indicating strength in the employment sector. The higher the number of claims, the better the news it is for mortgage rates. However, since this is only a weekly snapshot, it takes a significant surprise for the numbers to directly affect mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Scott Wenhe
Phone: 619-255-3182
email: [email protected]

 

[Tamalewagon]

Alert to lock. If you are on the fence with your transaction, call your mortgage contact and lock now. The stock market is soaring and bonds are deteriorating which means higher pricing is imminent.

 

[LhcBrad]

Alert to lock. If you are on the fence with your transaction, call your mortgage contact and lock now. The stock market is soaring and bonds are deteriorating which means higher pricing is imminent.

Good advice... During our weekly office meetings we were told rates for conventional loans are more likely to go to 4.25% then back to under 4.00%
A rate of 4.25% is still a really good rate

 

[Tamalewagon]

Market Wrap Wednesday by MBS Highway… Stocks have ended the day higher. The Dow closed at a record high, up 322.79 at 26,115.65 and the S&P 500 closed up 26.14 at 2,802.56. Mortgage Bonds ended the day much lower. The Fed's Beige book showed that most districts experienced modest to moderate growth. Retail Sales expanded and there was moderate employment growth. There were challenges finding skilled workers. Housing inventory was tight and wages increased at a modest pace, but firms expect wages to increase. Earlier this morning the Mortgage Bankers Association’s released their Mortgage Application Data for the week ending 1/12/18. The report showed that overall application volume was up 4.1% from previous week. Purchases increased by 3% and are up 7.4% from this time last year. Refinances increased by 4.0% and are also up 4.0% on a year over year basis. Interest rates were essentially unchanged from a year ago. The refinance share of applications moved down from 52.9% to 52.2%, while ARMs moved higher from 5.0% to 5.2%. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their Housing Market Index for January, which showed Builder Confidence fall 2 points from 74 to 72. This was in line with expectations and was coming off the best number in 18 years, or since 1999, so a minor pullback was expected. The components within the report were as follows - Current Sales dropped 2 points to 79, Sales Expectations fell 1 point to 78, and Buyer Traffic fell 4 points to 54. These are still very strong levels – any reading above 50 signals expansion. Economic Data Mortgage Apps: Actual = 17.7; Consensus = 19; Prior = 18 NAHB Housing Market Index: Actual = 72; Consensus = 72; Prior = 74 Upcoming Events Tomorrow Housing Starts and the Sample Week Initial Jobless Claims report will be released. Additionally, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey, which shows the strength of the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia region, will reported. Technical Picture Mortgage Bonds fell in response to a soaring Stock market and have broken beneath 101.868. They are now in a new range between support at 101.641 and overhead resistance at 101.868. The 10-year Treasury Note Yield is trading at 2.589%, but there is a ceiling nearby at 2.594%. We will see if this ceiling can keep a lid on Yields.

 

[Tamalewagon]

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory as overnight selling carries into this morning. Stocks are showing minor losses, pushing the Dow lower by 37 points and the Nasdaq down by 15 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32 (2.60%), which with weakness late yesterday, should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point if comparing to yesterday’s morning rates.

Yesterday’s afternoon release of the Fed Beige Book showed that economic conditions, including inflation, strengthened at a modest-to-moderate rate in most regions since the last update. The upbeat inflation and wage growth in the report caused bonds to weaken after its release yesterday afternoon. As bond selling continued, some lenders revised rates higher as a result. This report covered activity by Fed region from late November through the end of the year.

The first of this morning’s two minor economic releases was December's Housing Starts at 8:30 AM ET. The Commerce Department announced an 8.2% decline in new home groundbreakings last month. This was a much larger decline than was expected, indicating weakness in the new home portion of the housing sector. Therefore, we can consider the data good news for bonds and mortgage rates. Unfortunately, it does not carry the importance that some of the other report do that we follow. Accordingly, the news has had little impact on the overnight negative momentum in bonds.

Today’s second release was last week’s unemployment figures, also at 8:30 AM ET. They showed that only 220,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, falling well short of the 251,000 that was expected. It also is a significant decline from the previous week’s 261,000. Because declining claims is a sign of a strengthening employment sector, we should consider this data bad news for mortgage rates.

Tomorrow has a single moderately important release for the markets to digest. That will be January's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and can usually have enough of an impact on the financial markets to slightly change mortgage rates. If consumers feel better about their own financial and employment situations, they are more apt to make a large purchase in the near future, fueling economic growth. Good news would be a reading weaker than December's 95.9 that means consumers are less likely to make a large purchase in the immediate future. Forecasts are calling for an increase to 97.0.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Scott Wenhe
Phone: 619-255-3182
Toll Free:866-476-2494
email: [email protected]