It isn’t just Havasu it’s everywhere..

[RodnJen]

Anyone ever pick up and leave with a construction company?

Wife is in medicine and I’m self employed. She can get a job tonight anywhere she wants. Me on the other hand might take some time.


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Medical professionals are in high demand out of CA, something to consider. There are also a number of reasons so many of them want to live here. We’ve been having that talk for years, still not moving.

 

[Raffit78]

Really? Where is the supply going to come from??



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When over their head buyers foreclose. Short sale.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

When over their head buyers foreclose. Short sale.

That would imply people owe more than their houses are worth. If you bought 18 months ago or more, you have some healthy equity on top of what you put down. No one walks away from that. A hard recession might take 15% of the value off the price so you drop to 2020 prices - big deal. If you bought before 2020 you aren’t walking away, you are just selling the house for market value and taking a wash or small profit.

And we have not even seen the pricing peak yet. As much as everyone wants to fear monger about 2008, the fundamentals are VASTLY different.

 

[hallett21]

When over their head buyers foreclose. Short sale.

I think the absolute max a first time home buyer with excellent credit can spend is 50% of gross income.

That would assume zero debt as well. Not saying people won’t over extend themselves but no where near a gardener owning 2-3 homes in 2005-2007


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[RiverDave]

Not sure it's everywhere. There's way cheaper places to live in Idaho than Ketchum if they wanted to, its a resort town, highly desirable place to have a second home, like Havasu. As long as it stays desirable, the prices will be high. Just like everywhere else, if your priced out of the place you want to live but still need to be close, you go further out.

Twin falls has also doubled.. So has all the areas of UT that we travelled through.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Twin falls has also doubled.. So has all the areas of UT that we travelled through.

People fleeing cities that can work from anywhere are driving up demand.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

People fleeing leftist run cities and states

The cancer is just gonna spread..

 

[Danger Dave]

The cancer is just gonna spread..

"You have a shitty attitude for a moderator." - AOC

 

[RodnJen]

People fleeing leftist run cities and states

People leveraging the asset bubble to lead a different life. Their political affiliation will follow.

 

[hallett21]

People fleeing leftist run cities and states

Do you think it’s that or cost of living? I realize they go hand in hand typically. But my wife and I grew up where we live. And we both enjoy the beach and what CA has to offer (Colorado river, mammoth, tuna fishing in San Diego and of course a lot of family here.

Don’t get me wrong our patience is being tested lol. But it’s the cost of living in CA.

Currently our goal is to get back towards Stunt, Mulholland, Kanan etc. Still have the CA costs and politics but away from the homelessness and petty theft BS.

Edit: the only place that I think we could do is Southern Utah. I think Idaho is beautiful but I can’t do real winters lol.

Maybe southern CO?

Don’t want to live in the AZ or NV desert.



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[2Driver]

If you live in Havasu full time, it’s good to get out of Havasu for perspective.

 

[FreeBird236]

Just read today, some investment firm bought a complete development of single family homes from D.R. Horton that wasn't even built yet, and will rent them.

 

[hallett21]

For us it was principally quality of life.

Sorry edited my post.


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[Raffit78]

I think the absolute max a first time home buyer with excellent credit can spend is 50% of gross income.

That would assume zero debt as well. Not saying people won’t over extend themselves but no where near a gardener owning 2-3 homes in 2005-2007


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If only I can count how many people have refinanced to buy a “lake house, winter cabin, pool build, RV, boats” …… all to do “short term rentals on” as an investment. Like the other 7 houses on the block.


Back then it was 7-9% interest rates. Feds lowered rates. We are at 0% today. There is no spark to reignite.

do you know how many small businesses used SBA loans to purchase property? 20% down payment…. No payments for 2 years… while the juice is running. Those too will soon be due with their mortgage payments the addition of the new upgraded utility bills.

If there is one thing I have learned and been told is. Never make large purchases in a “good economy” because everyone can succeed in a short term good economy. Make your large long term purchases in a bad economy. This way you know you can afford it even when things are challenging.

I truly hope I’m wrong as I have no skin in the game. My properties were all bought between 2011-2013.

 

[RodnJen]

Just read today, some investment firm bought a complete development of single family homes from D.R. Horton that wasn't even built yet, and will rent them.

Another result of low interest rates. Investment firms would rather be in bonds but low interest rates are driving them elsewhere.

 

[Raffit78]

That would imply people owe more than their houses are worth. If you bought 18 months ago or more, you have some healthy equity on top of what you put down. No one walks away from that. A hard recession might take 15% of the value off the price so you drop to 2020 prices - big deal. If you bought before 2020 you aren’t walking away, you are just selling the house for market value and taking a wash or small profit.

And we have not even seen the pricing peak yet. As much as everyone wants to fear monger about 2008, the fundamentals are VASTLY different.

Everyone I know has refinanced. Lending is stricter, however the spending on material goods has x1000’d. Which can only say, nothing is really different in grand scheme of things.



Household median income has not increased exponentially. But all of consumer goods has.

 

[hallett21]

If only I can count how many people have refinanced to buy a “lake house, winter cabin, pool build, RV, boats” …… all to do “short term rentals on” as an investment. Like the other 7 houses on the block.


Back then it was 7-9% interest rates. Feds lowered rates. We are at 0% today. There is no spark to reignite.

do you know how many small businesses used SBA loans to purchase property? 20% down payment…. No payments for 2 years… while the juice is running. Those too will soon be due with their mortgage payments the addition of the new upgraded utility bills.

If there is one thing I have learned and been told is. Never make large purchases in a “good economy” because everyone can succeed in a short term good economy. Make your large long term purchases in a bad economy. This way you know you can afford it even when things are challenging.

I truly hope I’m wrong as I have no skin in the game. My properties were all bought between 2011-2013.

All fair points. But a W2 homebuyer can not exceed 50% DTI regardless of refi or new mortgage, unless those rules have loosened.

The SBA loan is a wild card. Now able to 3x the loan and not due for 2 years will certainly drive prices higher.

But let’s just say the market rises for the next 2 years. The average American will continue to be priced out of the market. So they will inevitably have to rent and when the SBA loans become due I’m sure a lot of these properties will have positive cash flow.

I agree buying in a down economy is the best move. But part of me is concerned we are watching a wedge split the upper class and lower class.

Personally I’m all in on buying the largest piece of property my wife and I can afford. Sure property taxes are forever, but it’s something we can grow for decades as we can afford it.


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[Loo Dog]

City councilors should own in the city they serve, not rent. That is all.

Because that’s a legit full time job? Gimme a break.

 

[hallett21]

Because that’s a legit full time job? Gimme a break.

Do you want someone having control of your city who can’t afford to live in it?


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[LargeOrangeFont]

Because that’s a legit full time job? Gimme a break.

You want someone running your city that does not even have a stake in ownership there and can’t even financially manage their own life?

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Do you want someone having control of your city who can’t afford to live in it?


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You tree’d me.

 

[SkyDirtWaterguy]

It's supply and demand. With 75% of Central America fleeing to the United Sates with our open borders these people have to live somewhere. One group moves out and another group moves in to fill the void. Depending where you are on the food chain and the quality of life you seek will determine the price people are willing to pay

 

[Loo Dog]

Do you want someone having control of your city who can’t afford to live in it?


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My point is, a position such as sitting on a city council, especially in a smaller municipality, is NOT a full time job, and especially not one fit for the level of taxpayer subsidized salary which by itself would afford one home ownership over rent. Members of Congress were never even meant to serve in such capacity as a means of primary occupation. Part of the problem.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

My point is, a position such as sitting on a city council, especially in a smaller municipality, is NOT a full time job, and especially not one fit for the level of taxpayer subsidized salary which by itself would afford one home ownership over rent. Members of Congress were never even meant to serve in such capacity as a means of primary occupation. Part of the problem.

We know it isn’t a full time job. That does not address our questions -

Do you want people that clearly can’t run their own finances running your city?

Do you want people with no vested interest in your city running your city?

I would say no to both of those. Someone trying to use their city council salary as their main source of income is not someone I want controlling where I own property and live.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

It's supply and demand. With 75% of Central America fleeing to the United Sates with our open borders these people have to live somewhere. One group moves out and another group moves in to fill the void. Depending where you are on the food chain and the quality of life you seek will determine the price people are willing to pay

Illegal aliens aren’t buying houses and driving up home prices in So Cal right now. They are living in groups and renting, just as they always have. What’s funny is there are none of these immigrants on the beach in Venice, or living in the other homeless encampments. They all seem to end up somewhere.

Millennials are the ones buying houses.

 

[WhatExit?]

Why do you think the 909 even exists? Because people who wanted to buy in the OC in the 80's and 90's were priced out because of home appreciation driven by demand and population growth that forced the lower income people out. It is what it is and has nothing to do with gov't policy. Interest rates have little to do with it. You either qualify for a $800K house or you qualify for a $400K house based on your income. Big difference. You go where you can afford to live.

So it’s “because of demand and population growth and it has nothing to do with interest rates”

 

[Loo Dog]

We know it isn’t a full time job. That does not address our questions -

Do you want people that clearly can’t run their own finances running your city?

Do you want people with no vested interest in your city running your city?

I would say no to both of those. Someone trying to use their city council salary as their main source of income is not someone I want controlling where I own property and live.

Misunderstood your original statement as the other way around. I would say no to both of those as well. Solution? Make it a true civil service position, with no pay.

 

[Xring01]

Wow, you guys have alot of the symptoms of the problem…
But only only one got really close…

I will give you a few hints and some googling to really get you into some deep rabbit holes…

REIT… first find out what it is, and how its funded…
Then Research the percentage of homes purchased by REITs every month or Qtr…across the U.S.

You will quickly realize the average Joe buying a house is not competing with another average Joe… They are competing against Wallstreet, China, Europe, Global investment institutions. Why because its capitalism system, that needs to bit more regulation, or future society will all be renters, to the institution.

 

[Cdog]

Wow, you guys have alot of the symptoms of the problem…
But only only one got really close…

I will give you a few hints and some googling to really get you into some deep rabbit holes…

REIT… first find out what it is, and how its funded…
Then Research the percentage of homes purchased by REITs every month or Qtr…across the U.S.

You will quickly realize the average Joe buying a house is not competing with another average Joe… They are competing against Wallstreet, China, Europe, Global investment institutions. Why because its capitalism system, that needs to bit more regulation, or future society will all be renters, to the institution.

 

[Xring01]

Illegal aliens aren’t buying houses and driving up home prices in So Cal right now. They are living in groups and renting, just as they always have. What’s funny is there are none of these immigrants on the beach in Venice, or living in the other homeless encampments. They all seem to end up somewhere.

Millennials are the ones buying houses.

So your analysis is that Illegals have no impact to the US housing?
As your president would say.. Come On Man…
Illegals take the lowest cost of housing displacing a segment of the population, who are forced up into a higher rental bracket, and on and on and on… all while no one in government who is allowing a free access border, but not helping the housing situation..they make the problem worse with stricter building regulations and policys, that drive the price higher, all while treatening another tax increase.

This just common sense.. that impacts the entire supply chain..

The more comming in, without affordable housing makes the problem that much worse, combined with REITs buying up everything they can with 401k money every 1st and 15th of the month.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

So your analysis is that Illegals have no impact to the US housing?
As your president would say.. Come On Man…
Illegals take the lowest cost of housing displacing a segment of the population, who are forced up into a higher rental bracket, and on and on and on… all while no one in government who is allowing a free access border, but not helping the housing situation..they make the problem worse with stricter building regulations and policys, that drive the price higher, all while treatening another tax increase.

This just common sense.. that impacts the entire supply chain..

The more comming in, without affordable housing makes the problem that much worse, combined with REITs buying up everything they can with 401k money every 1st and 15th of the month.

Your analysis of my analysis is incorrect. That’s not what I said. I said they are not buying houses. They are however clearly living somewhere. They certainly are not buying houses or renting in large cities with expensive rents where housing prices are actually down. And they aren’t buying up the houses of suburban families leaving California. These people are renters, they always have been.

Illegals are filling gaps and adding to rental demands, just as they always have.

Illegals are probably the best equipped to adapt to increased demand for housing honestly. Instead of 15 in a single house, they just bump it up to 20. These people aren’t stupid.

Like I said, there aren’t homeless illegals lining the streets. They are clearly going somewhere, and are adapting and finding homes.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Wow, you guys have alot of the symptoms of the problem…
But only only one got really close…

I will give you a few hints and some googling to really get you into some deep rabbit holes…

REIT… first find out what it is, and how its funded…
Then Research the percentage of homes purchased by REITs every month or Qtr…across the U.S.

You will quickly realize the average Joe buying a house is not competing with another average Joe… They are competing against Wallstreet, China, Europe, Global investment institutions. Why because its capitalism system, that needs to bit more regulation, or future society will all be renters, to the institution.

Well aware of the foreign and corporate money flooding in and it is further reason why there will be no “housing collapse”.

Pretty much why you need to invest in RE now instead of paying off your primary residence with every extra dollar you have.

To your point everyone is conditioned to rent. We lease cars, lease phones, subscribe to services for a monthly fee. House rental is easy.

 

[lbhsbz]

Housing values aren’t going up….the value of money is going down.

According to Zillow, my house went from $835K to $923K in the last 30 days…seems everything else has gone up about 10% too…if you can find it to buy.

I’m just glad I’m not a renter

 

[Danger Dave]

We know it isn’t a full time job. That does not address our questions -

Do you want people that clearly can’t run their own finances running your city?

Do you want people with no vested interest in your city running your city?

I would say no to both of those. Someone trying to use their city council salary as their main source of income is not someone I want controlling where I own property and live.

"You are really starting to piss me off with your "hate the poor" attitude." - AOC

 

[boatpi]

Las Vegas home prices most overvalued in US, report says | Las Vegas Review-Journal (reviewjournal.com)

I can still recall folks calling it a foolish idea to buy 5 year old houses in the Las Vegas area in 2012-2015 for under 130K. I should have saved the responses.

 

[Waffles]

Wow, you guys have alot of the symptoms of the problem…
But only only one got really close…

I will give you a few hints and some googling to really get you into some deep rabbit holes…

REIT… first find out what it is, and how its funded…
Then Research the percentage of homes purchased by REITs every month or Qtr…across the U.S.

You will quickly realize the average Joe buying a house is not competing with another average Joe… They are competing against Wallstreet, China, Europe, Global investment institutions. Why because its capitalism system, that needs to bit more regulation, or future society will all be renters, to the institution.

Excuse me sir, did you say rabbit hole?

 

[FreeBird236]

Another result of low interest rates. Investment firms would rather be in bonds but low interest rates are driving them elsewhere.

You may be right, but I don't see this a good thing in the long run.

 

[boatpi]

The demand for decent rental houses in the Vegas area is insane, not much out there and all rents are way up from 5 years ago. New house construction has a waiting list, I am told it is a combo of buyers from here, Cali, and AZ. A real shortage of qualified workers exists too, my patio cover contractors are having this issue. Theses guy often make 6-7K a month, they work 6 days a week if they want, installing all metal patio structures in the heat, or cold. Decent money if you are smart, fast and take pride in your work. Just a decent reliable honest worker is tough to find, I interviewed 16 to find one that had a brain and did not overstate their work experience.

Warehouse guys make $11 and hour in Vegas, I pay him $15, even then he calls in baby sick and shows up late weekly. Of course the cost of living is still way less than CA, gas is $3.25 a gallon, and most drive 5-10 minutes to work.

 

[HB2Havasu]

Supply -vs- Demand. Home prices are going to continue to appreciate as long as interest rates and inventories remain low although I don’t think your going to see double digit growth like we seen in 2020 thru Q2 2021. Unfortunately that also means that rents will increase accordingly and why yore seeing investment companies swooping up rental properties with cheap loans available. Until the Federal Reserve hikes the Prime Rate or the Biden economy free falls from tax hikes, green new deal spending, and printing paper currency you’re going to continue to see 3%-8% growth for the foreseeable future. My bet is the housing market will grow thru Q3 of 2023 then start to see a pullback in the market.

 

[mesquito_creek]

The solution is to save and earn more money to out compete the other person trying to buy what you want... and don't skip freshman social studies in high school.

 

[nameisbond]

Its the same in most of Canada. In my neighborhood developers (mostly Chinese) are buying houses built in the 1990's and tearing them down. They build ten houses with no yard and close together, selling them for $1.8 to $2 million dollars. Current house is on a 1.4 acre lot. House built in 92, its in good condition. 4k sq ft, 4 bedrooms and 3 car garage. Gated and fully fenced. Developer paid $5 million and already has approval for 9 lots. Rentals here are mostly short term, like 6 months because the properties are going to be developed like mine. Agents are even selling multi million dollar homes as development potential. An example: For sale: 16505 26 AVENUE, SURREY, British Columbia V3Z9W9 - R2535652 | REALTOR.ca That's a tear down here!

 

[EmpirE231]

Depends on where you want to go. I’m going to look at Southern Utah in 2 weeks. I can double the size of my house, quadruple my garage, Cut 1/3 off my house payment, pay it off 5 years sooner and pocket $1800-$2000 more of my after tax money PER MONTH. That is pretty compelling.

2 years ago prices there were 40% less, my house here was 20% less. Who cares, it is what it is.

your last sentence says it all.... it is not as offset of a transition as it used to be. Previous to the COVID “supply shortage” CA inland peoples were able to do everything you said in you first paragraph and put so serious cheese in their pockets while doing so. Those days are over. CA is no longer the “holy grail” of real estate.

 

[calkid]

You are absolutely right Dave. We go to Sturgis every year and make a month or more trip out of it. We usually hit an average of ten states and visit with locals and other couples that are also traveling. The market and problems associated with it are everywhere we travel. Many people that grew up in small towns, can't afford to live there because they can't afford to buy in their own home town. Havasu is deferent in that the City is split between people that may have grown up here, vs people that own a vacation home and those that now live here full time. The market will adjust, it always does, and we will be back to reality.

 

[mesquito_creek]

I bought my first house when I was in my late 20s that I could barely afford and still live in it 28 years later... so who cares what its worth? I still need a roof over my head and Airconditioning. Isn't that what you are supposed to do? Buy what you can barely afford when you are young and live there until you can make fun of your kids mortgage payment and constantly remind them that you don't have a mortgage anymore? Then you take all that extra money you don't pay in your mortgage and buy your first vacation home when you are in your peak earning years of 50+... nothing has changed, people just think they are entitled to exotic large houses.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I bought my first house when I was in my late 20s that I could barely afford and still live in it 28 years later... so who cares what its worth? I still need a roof over my head and Airconditioning. Isn't that what you are supposed to do? Buy what you can barely afford when you are young and live there until you can make fun of your kids mortgage payment and constantly remind them that you don't have a mortgage anymore? Then you take all that extra money you don't pay in your mortgage and buy your first vacation home when you are in your peak earning years of 50+... nothing has changed, people just think they are entitled to exotic large houses.

Is this now a Hey LAM thread?

 

[Uncle Dave]

Housing values aren’t going up….the value of money is going down.

It's both happening concurrently.

 

[mesquito_creek]

Is this now a Hey LAM thread?

The majority of people who are on RDP would drive by my house and complain about section 8 housing, ... not LAM... LOL!

 

[pronstar]

Housing affordability takes monthly payment and income into account, and disregards home price.

Based on affordability measures, houses are still historically affordable and not near historic, unaffordable highs.


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[BHC Vic]

I think the absolute max a first time home buyer with excellent credit can spend is 50% of gross income.

That would assume zero debt as well. Not saying people won’t over extend themselves but no where near a gardener owning 2-3 homes in 2005-2007


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You would be very surprised. Like I said earlier, my buddy max owns 4 homes. I know at least 50 apprentices that recently bought houses. A lot up the hill in Victorville. If they get laid off they’ll have no choice but to walk away. Work is slowing down. Developers are holding their money right now and not starting big projects.

 

[BHC Vic]

Just read today, some investment firm bought a complete development of single family homes from D.R. Horton that wasn't even built yet, and will rent them.

I posted about this in the stock market thread a while back