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Is the 2024 Beef Shortage a real thing?

wash11

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Yes, a coming beef shortage will have (possibly drastic) effects on pricing in the near future. Midwest feedlot buyers are already placing orders at livestock auctions nationwide to fill local voids, driving up yearling prices. That’s just the beginning. For those who like to research, hit the link below to see how inflation, fuel prices, droughts, overgrazing, and fires have produced a volatile cocktail for our food supply.

beef shortage 2024 - Google Search



What this means for folks: Higher prices and possibly longer wait times by early summer when ordering from your local ranchers. If buying from the grocery store or butcher shop, lower quality and higher prices can be expected. Rushing beef to market rarely gives proper time for good marbling. The local think tank (which convenes on neighboring porches) is forecasting $1600-1800 ¼ beef prices in the coming months. You’ll see more ranchers go to the “Ranchers Choice” ¼s to keep the appearance of low pricing. Basically, they’ll pull premium cuts out for individual sale and overall ¼ weight will drop by 20% or more. It’s a common model during price spikes, we’ve chosen to never go that route though. There’s no science involved in this conclusion, but a couple hundred years of combined cattle experience is hard to ignore.



What this means for you RDPers: Thankfully, Amy and I listened when the old-timers told us to buy more yearlings than we normally would last fall. (As I age, I do less talking and more listening. Something I wish I’d have learned in my twenties) For now, your supply is well stocked and we will always refuse to cut corners on the final few finishing months. You like a juicy steak and we like providing that. Our existing customers (VIPs) always go to the front of the line but RDP members are a close second. This will become more important than ever in the coming months as we expect needing to turn new customers away by mid-summer.



What we suggest: Stocking your freezer now is better than money in the bank if you plan on keeping beef in your diet. We usually suggest a ¼ beef to folks but have changed that to recommending a ½ beef if you have the freezer space (12-13 cu ft).



Current pricing:

¼ beef $1425

½ beef $2850

Add bones and offals for just $40 per ¼ (as of February 1st our butcher started charging us this fee for packaging, since you still get the actual meat for free it’s a heck of a bargain)



Scheduling:

Let us worry about that. Just tell us what you want and we’ll make arrangements to get it to you or meet for pickups. Below is a list of areas we will be in for home deliveries or to meet customers. Dates will depend on orders received.

Southern California

Las Vegas

Phoenix

Prescott

Bullhead City

Lake Havasu



Call or text Joel at 928-486-4043 for fastest replies to orders or questions. I’m a little slower on emails.
 

monkeyswrench

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I think most people knew prices were on the move. They all are, if nothing else, due to inflation. In this case, it's better to get the reason from an honest supplier. The news will never say why, and stores will never explain the trade of quality for discount....especially when the prices still rise :confused:
 

angiebaby

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Thanks for the insight, Joel. I will probably order a 1/4 from one of our local ranchers when we get home next week.
 
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wash11

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I think most people knew prices were on the move. They all are, if nothing else, due to inflation. In this case, it's better to get the reason from an honest supplier. The news will never say why, and stores will never explain the trade of quality for discount....especially when the prices still rise :confused:
The news seems to throw out a headline to get clicks and follows up with very little real information. I figured this group would appreciate info from the trenches.
 

monkeyswrench

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I’m planning on doing another post this week, “anatomy of a 1/4 beef” that breaks it down in detail. Here’s a short video that explains a lot.
View attachment 1348877
I think a visual like this is the best "teacher". Most of us know a ballpark on one package in the shopping cart. We have an idea at least of mass=$=meal. Even a packaged box is hard to figure. Laid out on a table, it makes sense.
 

stokerwhore

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Yes, a coming beef shortage will have (possibly drastic) effects on pricing in the near future. Midwest feedlot buyers are already placing orders at livestock auctions nationwide to fill local voids, driving up yearling prices. That’s just the beginning. For those who like to research, hit the link below to see how inflation, fuel prices, droughts, overgrazing, and fires have produced a volatile cocktail for our food supply.

beef shortage 2024 - Google Search



What this means for folks: Higher prices and possibly longer wait times by early summer when ordering from your local ranchers. If buying from the grocery store or butcher shop, lower quality and higher prices can be expected. Rushing beef to market rarely gives proper time for good marbling. The local think tank (which convenes on neighboring porches) is forecasting $1600-1800 ¼ beef prices in the coming months. You’ll see more ranchers go to the “Ranchers Choice” ¼s to keep the appearance of low pricing. Basically, they’ll pull premium cuts out for individual sale and overall ¼ weight will drop by 20% or more. It’s a common model during price spikes, we’ve chosen to never go that route though. There’s no science involved in this conclusion, but a couple hundred years of combined cattle experience is hard to ignore.



What this means for you RDPers: Thankfully, Amy and I listened when the old-timers told us to buy more yearlings than we normally would last fall. (As I age, I do less talking and more listening. Something I wish I’d have learned in my twenties) For now, your supply is well stocked and we will always refuse to cut corners on the final few finishing months. You like a juicy steak and we like providing that. Our existing customers (VIPs) always go to the front of the line but RDP members are a close second. This will become more important than ever in the coming months as we expect needing to turn new customers away by mid-summer.



What we suggest: Stocking your freezer now is better than money in the bank if you plan on keeping beef in your diet. We usually suggest a ¼ beef to folks but have changed that to recommending a ½ beef if you have the freezer space (12-13 cu ft).



Current pricing:

¼ beef $1425

½ beef $2850

Add bones and offals for just $40 per ¼ (as of February 1st our butcher started charging us this fee for packaging, since you still get the actual meat for free it’s a heck of a bargain)



Scheduling:

Let us worry about that. Just tell us what you want and we’ll make arrangements to get it to you or meet for pickups. Below is a list of areas we will be in for home deliveries or to meet customers. Dates will depend on orders received.

Southern California

Las Vegas

Phoenix

Prescott

Bullhead City

Lake Havasu



Call or text Joel at 928-486-4043 for fastest replies to orders or questions. I’m a little slower on emails.
thanks for the heads up 👍
 

River Lynchmob

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Thanks for the heads up...will keep in mind when I'm ready to place my next order.

Have there any price increases on pork or are there going to be?
 

PDQH2O

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No beef shortage around my place. Plenty of grass fed, grass finished angus, waygu and bison, thanks to great friends and neighbors who raise cattle for production.
 

Ricks raft

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Thanks for the heads up...will keep in mind when I'm ready to place my next order.

Have there any price increases on pork or are there going to be?
Pork in ca is up some and supposed to increase Due to prop 12 requiring larger space for pigs. I believe went into effect Jan 1st
 

PaPaG

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Morning Joel & Amy, running low on our 1/2 beef supply going to be calling you very soon... nothing like having a supply of high quality beef at hand to pull from that is for sure. I have to remember to ask about some of the seasonings.
 

monkeyswrench

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Fixed it for you.

Question for the OP. Why not hold your stock until the new prices hit then take them to market. $
I think there is a time frame for processing cattle...like being "ripe". That, and they eat a lot. I don't know about cold storage though, but probably not an option?
 

hallett21

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Fixed it for you.

Question for the OP. Why not hold your stock until the new prices hit then take them to market. $
I would imagine vacuum sealing would preserve the meat but it wouldn’t be the same as “fresh” delivered.
 

hallett21

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But you could do some 90-180 day dry aged meat. Gonna need a big locker lol
 

2Driver

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I would imagine vacuum sealing would preserve the meat but it wouldn’t be the same as “fresh” delivered.

I meant hold them in pasture. Maybe there is an age/timing thing when they need to go market. IDK.
 

monkeyswrench

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Sad part is even if folks' resort to chicken or pork in leu of red meat, have you seen the cost of chicken nowadays! Especially if you purchase skinless by piece and not whole. Holly shit
It's gotten pricey too. We eat a lot of chicken, so I've become pretty good with knives!
 

2Driver

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Sad part is even if folks' resort to chicken or pork in leu of red meat, have you seen the cost of chicken nowadays! Especially if you purchase skinless by piece and not whole. Holly shit
Watch Safeway they put it for 97 cents - 1.49lb for boneless skinless at the butcher counter

We buy 10 lbs and make our own chicken fingers strips. Par freeze the whole breast for 2 hours then slice them up, then back in the freezer separated ie not touching. Once fully frozen dump them into a bag in the freezer
 

Dana757

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Question, how big of a freezer is needed for a 1/4 with a little extra room??
 

JM21

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Hey Joel, when is the next Corona/temecula delivery?

I need a mystery box for sure but trying to find a splitter for a 1/4 or 1/2
 

sintax

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I would imagine vacuum sealing would preserve the meat but it wouldn’t be the same as “fresh” delivered.

So I had this convo with Joel when I picked up my order from him. I have a super nice vacmaster chamber sealer i've used forever to help limit waste.

He said that he doesn't recommend it, and that they already pay for an upgraded wrap job which he said works VERY well. So i'm taking his word for it and giving it ago.
 

wash11

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You planning on having some pigs avail this year ?
Yes, limited supply of 1/2 pigs for freezers towards end of summer. We've been happy with our bacon and sausage program since we can do it year-round so more resources directed that way.
 

wash11

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Fixed it for you.

Question for the OP. Why not hold your stock until the new prices hit then take them to market. $
This is a great question. In the nameless, faceless world of commodity farming, this would be the answer.

Short answer: We've found a program that works for us reasonably well through the ups and downs of a market we can't control so we stick with it.
Longer answer is below:

Customer direct sales is its own world. We have families that haven't purchased beef from a grocery store for seven and eight years, choosing to support us instead. We are proud of these relationships and holding back beef from them to make a few short-term bucks isn't something we're willing to do. We feel the same way about a new customer that just purchased their first 1/4 as well.

One of the biggest hurdles we have is butcher schedules. We fought to get our position with the butchers we use for years and in most cases are scheduled out a year in advance. A decade in, I can call when needed and go to the front of the line in a pinch. It's hard to quantify the value in that in terms of dollars. If I start surfing the market waves like many others- I'm sure to lose my standing.

Margins are fairly slim in my world as it is. I've had plenty of years where it felt like we were working for free after being forced to over feed steers simply because I couldn't get a butcher date scheduled at the optimum time. Once you start finishing a beef for a customer, the window for decent returns on your feed investment is pretty narrow.
 

wash11

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Question, how big of a freezer is needed for a 1/4 with a little extra room??
A 10 cubic foot freezer covers your scenario pretty well. A 14 cubic foot freezer is perfect as it doesn't take up any extra power and very little space.

Here's one of the best deals going.
Garage rated which is important for large temperature swings and extreme Havasu heat and Home Depot offers free delivery and setup. They even haul off the packaging.
 

wash11

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So I had this convo with Joel when I picked up my order from him. I have a super nice vacmaster chamber sealer i've used forever to help limit waste.

He said that he doesn't recommend it, and that they already pay for an upgraded wrap job which he said works VERY well. So i'm taking his word for it and giving it ago.
As we discussed, (I'll share with the group) vacuum sealing is neat to look at but anytime you shuffle cuts in the freezer you run the risk of rubbing a microscopic hole in the plastic. Once you find freezer burn has started, you've already lost. The white butcher paper can hold up to so much more.
 

wash11

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Hey Joel, when is the next Corona/temecula delivery?

I need a mystery box for sure but trying to find a splitter for a 1/4 or 1/2
I'm shooting for late April or early May for another socal delivery. Text me anytime and I'll get you on the list!
 

2Driver

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This is a great question. In the nameless, faceless world of commodity farming, this would be the answer.

Short answer: We've found a program that works for us reasonably well through the ups and downs of a market we can't control so we stick with it.
Longer answer is below:

Customer direct sales is its own world. We have families that haven't purchased beef from a grocery store for seven and eight years, choosing to support us instead. We are proud of these relationships and holding back beef from them to make a few short-term bucks isn't something we're willing to do. We feel the same way about a new customer that just purchased their first 1/4 as well.

One of the biggest hurdles we have is butcher schedules. We fought to get our position with the butchers we use for years and in most cases are scheduled out a year in advance. A decade in, I can call when needed and go to the front of the line in a pinch. It's hard to quantify the value in that in terms of dollars. If I start surfing the market waves like many others- I'm sure to lose my standing.

Margins are fairly slim in my world as it is. I've had plenty of years where it felt like we were working for free after being forced to over feed steers simply because I couldn't get a butcher date scheduled at the optimum time. Once you start finishing a beef for a customer, the window for decent returns on your feed investment is pretty narrow.

Thanks for that great behind the scene explanation. 👍
 

JFMFG

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Joel when you have time text me some details on the sausage!
 

1tonfun

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Joel and Amy provide a phenomenal product and are wonderful people to deal with. The paper it comes wrapped in holds up well. Wife and have no kids at home now so it takes about a year for us to go through a half. Never ran into an issue with any of the product keeping for this period of time.
 

monkeyswrench

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Thought I'd add this. It looks like they want to squeeze the cattle industry. Like everything else, it will hurt the small guys first. These are the people we like to deal with, don't drug their cattle and bow to some of the BS. Help them out now if you can, because "the Man" is trying to screw then :mad:

 

scottchbrite

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Hey Joel, when is the next Corona/temecula delivery?

I need a mystery box for sure but trying to find a splitter for a 1/4 or 1/2
Jeremy- I just talked to my wife and we’d split something with you. I’m local to you (I think), I’m in Tenaja.
 

1manshow

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Jeremy- I just talked to my wife and we’d split something with you. I’m local to you (I think), I’m in Tenaja.
Get that beef 🥩 while it’s cheap! Day old angus/holstein drop bull calf just went up to 830.00 as of last week. So unless demand falls on its ass or feed drops the rising cost of beef will continue unfortunately.
 

JM21

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Jeremy- I just talked to my wife and we’d split something with you. I’m local to you (I think), I’m in Tenaja.
We are in! I am going to do an inventory on my freezer today but I think splitting a 1/4 would work for us. I am in De Luz on the Fallbrook side so yes we are very close, I look at Tenaja/La cresta all day. Thanks!
 

Andy B.

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Anyone want to split a 1/4 that's all I can fit in freezer for now, I'm in Vegas.
The brisket we're cooking today is from Joel.
 

Andy B.

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Anyone want to split a 1/4 that's all I can fit in freezer for now, I'm in Vegas.
The brisket we're cooking today is from Joel.
Here is a pic
 

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