For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[Cdog]

Lots of lookie loos looking at properties online in Phoenix. Feels like an interest rate drop or two and we will have a strong spring. We will see

 

[Englewood]

Las Vegas market all time highs

Greater Las Vegas Home Sales Jump 15 Percent in November

A new report from Las Vegas Realtors reveals that local home prices neared an all-time high in November 2024, with increased sales activity and more properties available compared to the same time last year.

www.worldpropertyjournal.com

People don’t acknowledge how insane Vegas prices have gotten. I’ve been looking off and on for 5yrs but can’t come to terms w the prices they are asking.

 

[attitude]

People don’t acknowledge how insane Vegas prices have gotten. I’ve been looking off and on for 5yrs but can’t come to terms w the prices they are asking.

From the data charts I’ve seen Nevada is the only state on the west coast with prices still climbing, the East coast is climbing steadily.

 

[attitude]

Lots of lookie loos looking at properties online in Phoenix. Feels like an interest rate drop or two and we will have a strong spring. We will see

Those people missed their opportunity a few months ago.

New builds have lots of great deals on rates, I’ve even seen 3.99% fixed for 30 years offered. Most are in the 4%-5% range.

 

[Floaterboat]

This thread aged well .

 

[BHC Vic]

I’m in Portland. Construction is super slow out here. That’s all I got

 

[Cdog]

Those people missed there opportunity a few months ago.

New builds have lots of great deals on rates, I’ve even seen 3.99% fixed for 30 years offered. Most are in the 4%-5% range.

I think the only people that missed out were the ones that didn’t buy or refinance during 3% rates.

The majority of buyers don’t want a new build.

Trump will bring confidence and lower energy in the near future. Spring to early summer I can see a resurgence.

But what do I know. 24 years in this wacky business

 

[attitude]

I think the only people that missed out were the ones that didn’t buy or refinance during 3% rates.

The majority of buyers don’t want a new build.

Trump will bring confidence and lower energy in the near future. Spring to early summer I can see a resurgence.

But what do I know. 24 years in this wacky business

Wild to think some people didn’t refinance, most of my neighbors have low rates and $1,000 mortgage payments. They are set…

 

[530RL]

I think the only people that missed out were the ones that didn’t buy or refinance during 3% rates.

The majority of buyers don’t want a new build.

Trump will bring confidence and lower energy in the near future. Spring to early summer I can see a resurgence.

But what do I know. 24 years in this wacky business

Watch start numbers and how builders react to possible labor shortages.

Labor availability will drive supply.

 

[Bpracing1127]

I’m glad I’m finally in the market. That’s all I have to say

 

[Cdog]

Wild to think some people didn’t refinance, most of my neighbors have low rates and $1,000 mortgage payments. They are set…

There’s the problem with the housing crash theory.

It’s cheaper to keep her

 

[attitude]

There’s the problem with the housing crash theory.

It’s cheaper to keep her

They all want bigger homes or more property but the extra cost isn’t worth it to them. So far only one neighbor in our “friend group” has bought a bigger home since I moved in.

That being said the inventory in Phoenix is still up 50% in the last year and it’s in the top 10 cities in the nation for inventory growth year over year. Too many investment homes were bought and are now being sold.

 

[Cdog]

They all want bigger homes or more property but the extra cost isn’t worth it to them. So far only one neighbor in our “friend group” has bought a bigger home since I moved in.

That being said the inventory in Phoenix is still up 50% in the last year and it’s in the top 10 cities in the nation for inventory growth year over year. Too many investment homes were bought and are now being sold.

It's really not as impressive as it sounds. only 12k SFR in Maricopa County.

 

[attitude]

It's really not as impressive as it sounds. only 12k SFR in Maricopa County.


View attachment 1458336

I have a custom circle I look at on Zillow that includes the greater Phoenix area. When I started monitoring it last June there was 9954 homes for sale, as of last month there were 17678 homes for sale.

No idea what the average inventory is, but that is a massive percentage spike.

 

[DWC]

I’m glad I’m finally in the market. That’s all I have to say

But also, you’re correct. Good ole 2FF was right. Get your name on a property as soon as you can. Long term best thing you can do.

 

[Floaterboat]

I have a custom circle I look at on Zillow that includes the greater Phoenix area. When I started monitoring it last June there was 9954 homes for sale, as of last month there were 17678 homes for sale.

No idea what the average inventory is, but that is a massive percentage spike.

You are looking at a couple year window.
@Cdog is trying to give you the perspective of the last quarter century. You are still way under average inventory historically, and only have more people in the market. You median price dropped from all time highs, to just under all time highs, and is trending up toward the all time high.

Phoenix Real Estate Market

Best single graph of the Phoenix real estate market. In one graph you see the most important trends driving home prices and home sales in the metro Phoenix, Arizona real estate market.

arizonarealestatenotebook.com

 

[attitude]

You are looking at a couple year window.
@Cdog is trying to give you the perspective of the last quarter century. You are still way under average inventory historically, and only have more people in the market. You median price dropped from all time highs, to just under all time highs, and is trending up toward the all time high.

View attachment 1458342

Phoenix Real Estate Market

Best single graph of the Phoenix real estate market. In one graph you see the most important trends driving home prices and home sales in the metro Phoenix, Arizona real estate market.

arizonarealestatenotebook.com

I get what CDOG is saying, all I’m saying is there is a lot more home owners than just the tiny mortgage low interest rate group which aren’t going to sell. Also, it doesn’t matter how big the mortgage is if the owner can’t pay it.

 

[Floaterboat]

I get what CDOG is saying, all I’m saying is there is a lot more home owners than just the tiny mortgage low interest rate group which aren’t going to sell. Also, it doesn’t matter how big the mortgage is if the owner can’t pay it.

No there isn’t. Look at the blue line in the chart, those are sales. They are fairly consistent.

You had 10 years of low rates and increasing values. Everyone around you as far as the eye can see has a low rate, from purchase or refi. The only ones that don’t are the people that bought in the last couple years. They are the minority. That is the reality, the numbers don’t lie.

There has not been a collapse because people can afford their payments.

 

[stillhustlin]

I’m in Portland. Construction is super slow out here. That’s all I got

I left a home builder 2 months ago who had a sister company in Portland and they were selling things at break even or a small loss.

On a side note headed to Washington/St George to look at several new construction custom specs this week. Curious what first hand info I will find talking to agents/builders. Market seems spec heavy/inflated but I’m getting ready to pull the trigger.

 

[attitude]

No there isn’t. Look at the blue line in the chart, those are sales. They are fairly consistent.

You had 10 years of low rates and increasing values. Everyone around you as far as the eye can see has a low rate, from purchase or refi. The only ones that don’t are the people that bought in the last couple years. They are the minority. That is the reality, the numbers don’t lie.

There has not been a collapse because people can afford their payments.

So then why is the inventory in Phoenix growing at such a fast rate?

 

[Nanu/Nanu]

So then why is the inventory in Phoenix growing at such a fast rate?

Property taxes? Assumed property value is pissing me off. There seems to be an uptick of homes for sale at a price of $800-$1mill in the Prescott area. These are homes that were bought low price low interest but the 5% increase a year, every year so long as market value is higher than full cash value maybe whats putting a hurting on folks. I had a decent mortgage and rate but my payment keeps climbing because my assumed property value keeps climbing and literally nothing has changed in the servicing of my mortgage and im not sure where my property tax money goes. Talk about paying more for absolutely nothing. If values keep trending up, i will be paying double my original mortgage just in property taxes. Kind of ridiculous

Im not sure if property taxes rules in Maricopa county are the same as yavapai county. But in yavapai the law states: So long as Market value is higher than Full cash value, said property is subject up to a 5% tax increase. Thats not verbatim but pretty close.

Thats just a guess Im sure someone has a more exact idea or knowledge, but this seems to be a issue no one is talking about in my mind.

 

[Floaterboat]

So then why is the inventory in Phoenix growing at such a fast rate?

You are asking the wrong question.

Why haven’t sales grown as inventory has is the question you should be asking.

Inventory is meaningless if no one wants to buy. Look at your local RV dealer for proof.

Anyone can cast a line and put their house up for sale adding to inventory.

People are looking for desperation sales, deals, or have enough money not to care.

The housing market is gonna be tough for another 10-15 year because the vast majority of homeowners either own outright or have a super low rate and don’t want to pay more for less than what they have just to move.

 

[Cdog]

Phoenix housing market sees surge in November - AZ Big Media

Closed residential sales in greater Phoenix housing market sees surge in November rose nearly 14% in November compared to last year.

azbigmedia.com

 

[attitude]

Phoenix housing market sees surge in November - AZ Big Media

Closed residential sales in greater Phoenix housing market sees surge in November rose nearly 14% in November compared to last year.

azbigmedia.com

I just checked my loop on Zillow, inventory dropped about 600 homes this month, down to 17,064 homes for sale. Looks like lots of people were waiting for Trump to be elected.

I wonder if inventory will spike once the deportations start happening

 

[hallett21]

Not sure what the short term holds. But I’d wager that prices will really climb when these 1-3% mortgages get past the interest/principal intersection.

 

[Cdog]

I just checked my loop on Zillow, inventory dropped about 600 homes this month, down to 17,064 homes for sale. Looks like lots of people were waiting for Trump to be elected.

I wonder if inventory will spike once the deportations start happening

Don’t hold yer breath. Or tacos for to long

 

[attitude]

Don’t hold yer breath. Or tacos for to long

Being able to buy a good tacos > being able to buy a house

 

[c_land]

I wonder if inventory will spike once the deportations start happening

Maybe Maryvale and Alahambra inventory will spike with that demographic

 

[530RL]

Maybe Maryvale and Alahambra inventory will spike with that demographic

Hey now.

I grew up in Maryvale. It’s a nice place.

Now the Durango Curve, that is where the inventory will be.

 

[angiebaby]

You are asking the wrong question.

Why haven’t sales grown as inventory has is the question you should be asking.

Inventory is meaningless if no one wants to buy. Look at your local RV dealer for proof.

Anyone can cast a line and put their house up for sale adding to inventory.

Are you saying fundamental economic law does not apply to the housing market? An increase in supply usually causes the prices of said goods to drop eventually.

 

[Cdog]

Interesting

 

[Floaterboat]

Are you saying fundamental economic law does not apply to the housing market? An increase in supply usually causes the prices of said goods to drop eventually.

What I said was look at the chart. Supply is meaningless with no demand due to higher interest rates.

Prices are near records highs, supply is trending up, and sales are trending down in Phoenix, due to lack of movement.

 

[Orange Juice]

What I said was look at the chart. Supply is meaningless with no demand due to higher interest rates.

Prices are near records highs, supply is trending up, and sales are trending down in Phoenix, due to lack of movement.

It’s still pretty tight market in Phoenix. The winter visitors are still looking for a place to get out of sub freezing temperatures, and all the hotels are booked up until Easter.

Sunny and in the 70’s

 

[evantwheeler]

Not sure what the short term holds. But I’d wager that prices will really climb when these 1-3% mortgages get past the interest/principal intersection.

View attachment 1458488

What does that intersection have to do with the housing market or home prices/values?

 

[530RL]

Today's data

U.S. economy grows at 3.1% pace in third quarter, an upgrade from previous estimate

The American economy grew at a healthy 3.1% annual clip from July through September, propelled by vigorous consumer spending and an uptick in exports, the government said in an upgrade to its previous estimate.

apnews.com

 

[4Waters]

Today's data

U.S. economy grows at 3.1% pace in third quarter, an upgrade from previous estimate

The American economy grew at a healthy 3.1% annual clip from July through September, propelled by vigorous consumer spending and an uptick in exports, the government said in an upgrade to its previous estimate.

apnews.com

It's been proven that all these reports of economy growth and jobs growth over the last 4 years were lies. Fake news turd

 

[Runs2rch]

It's been proven that all these reports of economy growth and jobs growth over the last 4 years were lies. Fake news turd

House of cards will collapse, then they will blame Trump.

Everything was great over the last 4 years!

Trump's fault!

 

[JFMFG]

Trump said it’ll get worse before it gets better

 

[Looking Glass]

I believe that the Mainstream Media, "IF" they have not learned, are slowly realizing that the American Public won't believe any of their Trash ever again, so they best try to reform.
"NEWSMAX" is Killing everyone and although "Hannity" and others do not want to admit it, even "FOX"

 

[530RL]

It's been proven that all these reports of economy growth and jobs growth over the last 4 years were lies. Fake news turd

I’d urge you to look around and see all the possibilities out there that are going on.

 

[Havasu blue label]

It’s the best time to put your lowball offers in

 

[BHC Vic]

It’s the best time to put your lowball offers in

Agreed. Some people are still doing ok but a lot are sinking fast.

 

[530RL]

Friday’s jobs report.

Employment Situation Summary - 2024 M13 Results

www.bls.gov

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-stocks-got-clobbered-friday-despite-a-blockbuster-jobs-report-whats-going-on-c2464243

 

[regor]

Friday’s jobs report.

Employment Situation Summary - 2024 M13 Results

www.bls.gov

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-stocks-got-clobbered-friday-despite-a-blockbuster-jobs-report-whats-going-on-c2464243

More guberment jobs?

Bloomberg had estimates from 75 economists. This is not just a “handful” of estimates. It is a pretty robust sample size. All the big-name firms were in with their estimates. Some of the best independent firms were included in the survey. Bloomberg even takes the time to tabulate who the top 10 are at estimating the number (presumably using track records from prior estimates).

This group of highly intelligent, motivated, and typically well-resourced survey respondents had an estimate of 165k for jobs. The top 10 did better (if better means getting closer to the published number) with an average of 186k. I often like to examine the most recent submissions (under the premise that they incorporate the latest data and therefore might be making more of an effort). 16 estimates were provided in the 2 days before the release and they averaged 174k, so a bit better (again, assuming coming closer to the published number is better), but still off.

There was exactly 1 estimate higher than the published number. The Bloomberg Economics estimate is ranked 6th and was submitted 2 days before the release. There is some method to the madness of trying to qualitatively analyze the estimates.

A whopping 98.7% of analysts had estimates below the official number.

Not only were 74 out of 75 below the official data, but also only 5% of the estimates were above 200k. Think what you will about the dismal science, but I find it incredibly difficult to believe that so many really smart, organized, well-resourced, and well-intentioned estimates were all so wrong.

It almost defies explanation that this many people could be so wrong – which gives rise, at least to me, that potentially the published number itself is inaccurate.

ADP, which presumably has some good, real-time, real-world data, had a miss with only 126k jobs.