WELCOME TO RIVER DAVES PLACE

For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

77charger

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Yeah it’s really a shame that we want folks to be on never-ending payment plans.

Great if you’re a manufacturer of a product.

Not really good for the consumer or the greater economy long-term.
It just scratches a short-term itch at the expense of a yoke around your neck for the payment term.
I watched my parents do well in early 80s they owned 4 houses by 85 my dad worked ups my mom worked phone company was pac bell then. They never bought fancy stuff dad also did body work and paint on the side. They took us everywhere we did a lot of riding and camping. They knew how to budget. Today my mom lives off those investments and last house was sold about 2006 since my dad passed in 04 she’s still in laguna niguel home they bought in 85 They had future set up by sacrificing then.

It made the 90s a cakewalk for them but again still tight spending but splurged here and there at 50 I’m finally going cash only and in a good spot but nothing to my parents were at same age.
 

Englewood

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Just checking back in on this thread…

Soooo, when do the good deals hit? I check several locations Daily. I can’t find any deals. Not even one that pencils out in any way.

A beat Havasu duplex is still 500k!
 

Orange Juice

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What markets do you like? Dallas area if i remember correctly?

Ive searched tons of markets and can't make the rental income cash flow work at the 1% rule in this landscape. maybe i am missing something.
In Phoenix/Scottsdale……
 

hman442

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People don’t buy based on price.
They buy based on payment.
Several years ago, a third or so cousin had just bought a new Chevy extracab dually. Already pulled the back seat out, filled it with subwoofers, the whole deal. I asked him what his payment was, he told me, I asked for how long, he looked at me like I had three heads, responded, serious as hell, with.......duh, until it's paid for......he had no idea how long his loan was for 😆
 

pkbullet

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We listed our home in Las Cruces a week ago. We figured having over built for the market and with the rising rates it would take a while to sell. We are under contact in less than a week. The thing that helped us was property showed as new and to build same house currently would be 30% more. I’ve got some health issues and one less thing to worry about will be very nice.
 

NicPaus

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My Buddy has a real estate magazine in OC. Currently not publishing as no inventory. He called one of his main customers yesterday. She told him to hold off. Listings still selling within a week of being put on the market and no inventory. She has 1 pending. Use to have a few pages at a time.

Still low inventory on my searches locally.

Still working ever day 12+ hours a a day thanks to @PaPaG . It might crash any day and taking every job until it does. I have not kept track but pretty sure I worked 98 of the last 100 days.
 

Cdog

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I did an open house today and had 25 groups of people through in 4.5 hours. Doing another tomorrow from 10-2. Crazy! All retired boomers with money looking for a winter home.
 

Englewood

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My Buddy has a real estate magazine in OC. Currently not publishing as no inventory. He called one of his main customers yesterday. She told him to hold off. Listings still selling within a week of being put on the market and no inventory. She has 1 pending. Use to have a few pages at a time.
All agents are suffering. At all price points. I have agents that were making $500k/yr wondering when they are gonna get their next commission. It’s UGLY out there for Realtors/Brokers/Lenders/Escrow/Etc.

The listings go pending quick. The problem is very few houses get listed anymore.
 
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badgas

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Not younger hard working people is the issue. They are priced out.
Truth

In so cal it is going to really hard for youngsters to get rolling with home ownership, Not impossible but it's an uphill battle for sure.
Young couple in my family make about $160K no debt about $80K saved but they live and work in north county SD. Unless they want to spend all day commuting they aren't going to buy a home anytime soon. Yeah they could maybe buy a 1 bed condo in San Marcos Escondido etc. but with a baby on the way they would like a little space. You just have to make a LOT of $$ to pull it off here.
 

pronstar

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Softening demand for many markets is pretty obvious.

Also obvious is that high-demand areas are still in high demand…this holds true in any market.

The data indicates there are rocky times on the horizon.
What that ultimately means is anyone’s guess.

I see quite a bit of pain and ultimately buying opportunities coming, and that’s what I’m preparing for, but I’m no wizard.
 

PaPaG

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Slowly but surely as interest rates start to take effect..

Are House Prices Going Down in Phoenix?

According to the most recent data by Phoenix Realtors, Phoenix home sales are down 46.4% compared to last November while the housing supply has jumped by almost 200%.

  • The average price of single-family homes in Phoenix has decreased by 5.4% from a year ago to $523,165.
  • The median home price in Phoenix has dropped by 6.1% from a year ago to $422,500.
  • In January last year, the median home price was $450,000.
  • Total single-family homes sold in January dropped by 46.4%.
  • The number of new listings homes for sale has decreased by about 41.8% year-over-year.
  • Months Supply of Inventory increased from 0.7 months to 2.2 months (+ 214.3%).
According to Redfin, the Phoenix housing market is somewhat competitive. The average homes sell for about 3% below the list price and go under contract in around 64 days. Hot listings on the market can sell for around the list price and go pending in just 30 days.

  • In January 2023, Phoenix home prices were down 4.8% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $404K.
  • On average, homes in Phoenix sell after 70 days on the market compared to 32 days last year.
  • There were 1,041 homes sold in January this year, down from 1,842 last year.
  • 11% of homes were sold above their original asking prices, which is 34.2% less when compared to last year.
  • About 41.2% of the listed homes were sold with price drops.
  • The sale-to-list-price ratio was 96.7%,
  • If it's less than 100%, the home sold for less than the list price.
 

zhandfull

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Just checking back in on this thread…

Soooo, when do the good deals hit? I check several locations Daily. I can’t find any deals. Not even one that pencils out in any way.

A beat Havasu duplex is still 500k!
This is the best havasu deal I have tracked lately. Crappy house in a good neighborhood. Listed $335,000 and sold for $250,000. Not sure if it pencils out but it’s close to working out as a long term rental.
4F37B37E-AF85-4BA0-B425-1318594BD526.png
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Slowly but surely as interest rates start to take effect..

Are House Prices Going Down in Phoenix?

According to the most recent data by Phoenix Realtors, Phoenix home sales are down 46.4% compared to last November while the housing supply has jumped by almost 200%.

  • The average price of single-family homes in Phoenix has decreased by 5.4% from a year ago to $523,165.
  • The median home price in Phoenix has dropped by 6.1% from a year ago to $422,500.
  • In January last year, the median home price was $450,000.
  • Total single-family homes sold in January dropped by 46.4%.
  • The number of new listings homes for sale has decreased by about 41.8% year-over-year.
  • Months Supply of Inventory increased from 0.7 months to 2.2 months (+ 214.3%).
According to Redfin, the Phoenix housing market is somewhat competitive. The average homes sell for about 3% below the list price and go under contract in around 64 days. Hot listings on the market can sell for around the list price and go pending in just 30 days.

  • In January 2023, Phoenix home prices were down 4.8% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $404K.
  • On average, homes in Phoenix sell after 70 days on the market compared to 32 days last year.
  • There were 1,041 homes sold in January this year, down from 1,842 last year.
  • 11% of homes were sold above their original asking prices, which is 34.2% less when compared to last year.
  • About 41.2% of the listed homes were sold with price drops.
  • The sale-to-list-price ratio was 96.7%,
  • If it's less than 100%, the home sold for less than the list price.

Based on those facts, It took a year for Phoenix prices to drop 4.8%. And people had to lower their price less than 5% to move the house.

And prices seem to be UP since Jan…

Supply and inventory is still historically low. Still a sellers market by historical terms.

I’ll wind up the egg timer for another 18 months after all.
 

pkrrvr619

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This is the best havasu deal I have tracked lately. Crappy house in a good neighborhood. Listed $335,000 and sold for $250,000. Not sure if it pencils out but it’s close to working out as a long term rental.
View attachment 1219615
What’s something like this rent for? Gotta be close to 2500 for it to pencil.
 

Cdog

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Slowly but surely as interest rates start to take effect..

Are House Prices Going Down in Phoenix?

According to the most recent data by Phoenix Realtors, Phoenix home sales are down 46.4% compared to last November while the housing supply has jumped by almost 200%.

  • The average price of single-family homes in Phoenix has decreased by 5.4% from a year ago to $523,165.
  • The median home price in Phoenix has dropped by 6.1% from a year ago to $422,500.
  • In January last year, the median home price was $450,000.
  • Total single-family homes sold in January dropped by 46.4%.
  • The number of new listings homes for sale has decreased by about 41.8% year-over-year.
  • Months Supply of Inventory increased from 0.7 months to 2.2 months (+ 214.3%).
According to Redfin, the Phoenix housing market is somewhat competitive. The average homes sell for about 3% below the list price and go under contract in around 64 days. Hot listings on the market can sell for around the list price and go pending in just 30 days.

  • In January 2023, Phoenix home prices were down 4.8% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $404K.
  • On average, homes in Phoenix sell after 70 days on the market compared to 32 days last year.
  • There were 1,041 homes sold in January this year, down from 1,842 last year.
  • 11% of homes were sold above their original asking prices, which is 34.2% less when compared to last year.
  • About 41.2% of the listed homes were sold with price drops.
  • The sale-to-list-price ratio was 96.7%,
  • If it's less than 100%, the home sold for less than the list price.



So waiting a year cost buyers 30k in rent to save 30k on a purchase price but are now dealing with 2.5% more in interest rate.

Real genius stuff here...LOL!
 

zhandfull

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What’s something like this rent for? Gotta be close to 2500 for it to pencil.
Rent? Probably $1,250 and that may be a stretch. 😁

Just need rates to drop back to sub 3’s.

Some crazy valuations in Havasu and everywhere else these days. I show the best deal in Havasu on a 2/1 stick house and we can agree it’s overpriced. Hold on to your hat! More room for prices to fall.
 
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LargeOrangeFont

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What’s something like this rent for? Gotta be close to 2500 for it to pencil.

Not even close. This is probably a $1k/month money loser when you factor in repairs and maintenance as a rental.

As a crash pad for the river it may pencil out depending on how much you use it and you may need to rent it seasonally to make the numbers palatable.
 
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LargeOrangeFont

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Rent? Probably $1,250 and that may be a stretch. 😁

Just need rates to drop back to sub 3’s.

Some crazy valuations in Havasu and everywhere else these days. I show the best deal in Havasu on a 2/1 stick house and we can agree it’s overpriced. Hold on to your hat! More room for prices to fall.

Rates aren’t dropping to sub 3s again anytime soon.

The people that have waited a year for a “deal” and are renting have lost money.
 
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monkeyswrench

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Speaking of rent money...

My oldest daughter is now paying $4700.00/mo + Utilities.

The house would sell for $1.2 if it were on the market.
A 3bd 2b house up here is renting for 25-2800 a month...
Same house on the market would probably fetch 300-350k currently.
As of 2021, average household income was only 56k.

What gets really goofy though, a full 1/3rd of our population is 65 or older. A very large percentage of that are people making well over the median income in retirement. Put simply, out of state money has built a lot of nice homes out here. We have to hope things continue, and we maintain our migration of Cali retirees, or we're screwed.
 

HNL2LHC

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As for rentals. 3 years ago when we bought we rented for the first year and some months. The house was a clean 1995 1500 sq ft with garage but not improved since built. We were able to rent it for about $1500. Just talked to our realtor looking at options on buying bigger and renting this home again. She noted that the market has shifted a bit and we’d be looking at about $1200+- There have been a bunch of homes pulled out of the STR and sold or rented so it had an impact on rental rates. 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️ Who knows things are changing so quickly you just have to jump in and commit to long game. 👍
 

Gonefishin5555

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People are monetizing their low interest mortgage by turning it into a rental property. I'd expect this to continue. I can cash flow almost 4 k on my house and retire in BHC at my house that has an $1100/mo payment. That rent and social security of 3K seems to be enough to retire on though i doubt I'd really wanna do that but its probably a viable plan c or d back up plan. Last week when I looked on AIRbnb I think the number of STRs had actually increased from last summer in my area of BHC and I thought it was already saturated so I don't know how people are getting enough nights rented to make it cash flow.
 

monkeyswrench

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People are monetizing their low interest mortgage by turning it into a rental property. I'd expect this to continue. I can cash flow almost 4 k on my house and retire in BHC at my house that has an $1100/mo payment. That rent and social security of 3K seems to be enough to retire on though i doubt I'd really wanna do that but its probably a viable plan c or d back up plan. Last week when I looked on AIRbnb I think the number of STRs had actually increased from last summer in my area of BHC and I thought it was already saturated so I don't know how people are getting enough nights rented to make it cash flow.
Could some people just be listing them as rentals for tax purposes? Or is it possible people have their places listed now just as a "bonus", but bought not intending to rent? Our Needles place was like that, never was meant as a rental, never listed it as such. We rented it a handful of times over 15+ years.
 

Gonefishin5555

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Could some people just be listing them as rentals for tax purposes? Or is it possible people have their places listed now just as a "bonus", but bought not intending to rent? Our Needles place was like that, never was meant as a rental, never listed it as such. We rented it a handful of times over 15+ years.
Some things are better off not being talked about.
 

Danger Dave

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Good news:

A little-noticed revamp of federal rules on mortgage fees will offer discounted rates for home buyers with riskier credit backgrounds — and force higher-credit homebuyers to foot the bill, The Post has learned.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will enact changes to fees known as loan-level price adjustments (LLPAs) on May 1 that will affect mortgages originating at private banks nationwide, from Wells Fargo to JPMorgan Chase, effectively tweaking interest rates paid by the vast majority of homebuyers.

The result, according to industry pros: pricier monthly mortgage payments for most homebuyers — an ugly surprise for those who worked for years to build their credit, only to face higher costs than they expected as part of a housing affordability push by the US Federal Housing Finance Agency.

“It’s going to be a challenge trying to explain to somebody that says, ‘I worked my whole life for high credit and I’ve put a lot of money down and you’re telling me that’s a negative now?’ That’s a hard conversation to have,” one worried Arizona-based mortgage loan originator told The Post.

“It’s unprecedented,” added David Stevens, who served as Federal Housing Administration commissioner during the Obama administration. “My email is full from mortgage companies and CEOs [telling] me how unbelievably shocked they are by this move.”


 

Havasu blue label

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History repeats itself, give a loan to someone who has a history of credit issues, loan them enough that they can't make the payments, foreclose, and now we have a housing crisis. How did this happen?
Yes sir but they have 3 percent home loans so they can afford a boat truck and a lake house from the money they pulled out then they move out of state and start a new 30 year loan fake ballers
 

Orange Juice

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Slowly but surely as interest rates start to take effect..

Are House Prices Going Down in Phoenix?

According to the most recent data by Phoenix Realtors, Phoenix home sales are down 46.4% compared to last November while the housing supply has jumped by almost 200%.

  • The average price of single-family homes in Phoenix has decreased by 5.4% from a year ago to $523,165.
  • The median home price in Phoenix has dropped by 6.1% from a year ago to $422,500.
  • In January last year, the median home price was $450,000.
  • Total single-family homes sold in January dropped by 46.4%.
  • The number of new listings homes for sale has decreased by about 41.8% year-over-year.
  • Months Supply of Inventory increased from 0.7 months to 2.2 months (+ 214.3%).
According to Redfin, the Phoenix housing market is somewhat competitive. The average homes sell for about 3% below the list price and go under contract in around 64 days. Hot listings on the market can sell for around the list price and go pending in just 30 days.

  • In January 2023, Phoenix home prices were down 4.8% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $404K.
  • On average, homes in Phoenix sell after 70 days on the market compared to 32 days last year.
  • There were 1,041 homes sold in January this year, down from 1,842 last year.
  • 11% of homes were sold above their original asking prices, which is 34.2% less when compared to last year.
  • About 41.2% of the listed homes were sold with price drops.
  • The sale-to-list-price ratio was 96.7%,
  • If it's less than 100%, the home sold for less than the list price.
That was in January. Prices are up 10%+ since then.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Yes sir but they have 3 percent home loans so they can afford a boat truck and a lake house from the money they pulled out then they move out of state and start a new 30 year loan fake ballers

Unlike the real ballers that wait 10 years to save 5% on a house that tripled in the 10 years they were waiting?
 

Englewood

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Slowly but surely as interest rates start to take effect..

Are House Prices Going Down in Phoenix?

According to the most recent data by Phoenix Realtors, Phoenix home sales are down 46.4% compared to last November while the housing supply has jumped by almost 200%.

  • The average price of single-family homes in Phoenix has decreased by 5.4% from a year ago to $523,165.
  • The median home price in Phoenix has dropped by 6.1% from a year ago to $422,500.
  • In January last year, the median home price was $450,000.
  • Total single-family homes sold in January dropped by 46.4%.
  • The number of new listings homes for sale has decreased by about 41.8% year-over-year.
  • Months Supply of Inventory increased from 0.7 months to 2.2 months (+ 214.3%).
According to Redfin, the Phoenix housing market is somewhat competitive. The average homes sell for about 3% below the list price and go under contract in around 64 days. Hot listings on the market can sell for around the list price and go pending in just 30 days.

  • In January 2023, Phoenix home prices were down 4.8% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $404K.
  • On average, homes in Phoenix sell after 70 days on the market compared to 32 days last year.
  • There were 1,041 homes sold in January this year, down from 1,842 last year.
  • 11% of homes were sold above their original asking prices, which is 34.2% less when compared to last year.
  • About 41.2% of the listed homes were sold with price drops.
  • The sale-to-list-price ratio was 96.7%,
  • If it's less than 100%, the home sold for less than the list price.
The average price of single-family homes in Phoenix has decreased by 5.4% from a year ago to $523,165.


That's what you are gonna hang your hat on? Five point four percent?
 

pronstar

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Good news:

A little-noticed revamp of federal rules on mortgage fees will offer discounted rates for home buyers with riskier credit backgrounds — and force higher-credit homebuyers to foot the bill, The Post has learned.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will enact changes to fees known as loan-level price adjustments (LLPAs) on May 1 that will affect mortgages originating at private banks nationwide, from Wells Fargo to JPMorgan Chase, effectively tweaking interest rates paid by the vast majority of homebuyers.

The result, according to industry pros: pricier monthly mortgage payments for most homebuyers — an ugly surprise for those who worked for years to build their credit, only to face higher costs than they expected as part of a housing affordability push by the US Federal Housing Finance Agency.

“It’s going to be a challenge trying to explain to somebody that says, ‘I worked my whole life for high credit and I’ve put a lot of money down and you’re telling me that’s a negative now?’ That’s a hard conversation to have,” one worried Arizona-based mortgage loan originator told The Post.

“It’s unprecedented,” added David Stevens, who served as Federal Housing Administration commissioner during the Obama administration. “My email is full from mortgage companies and CEOs [telling] me how unbelievably shocked they are by this move.”



So basically I need to tank my credit score so I can get better rates…what could possibly go wrong? 🤷
 

PaPaG

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The average price of single-family homes in Phoenix has decreased by 5.4% from a year ago to $523,165.


That's what you are gonna hang your hat on? Five point four percent?
No, just one of many trends, if you think the slowdown has taken full effect there is much more research and data out there that prove otherwise. A few areas are still doing great, while much more are showing the signs and slowdown.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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No, just one of many trends, if you think the slowdown has taken full effect there is much more research and data out there that prove otherwise. A few areas are still doing great, while much more are showing the signs and slowdown.

The trend as of now is that if you were financing, you were better off buying a year ago with the higher prices and lower rates.

That trend holds true until roughly a 20% reduction in price. A reduction that has not yet happened on the coasts and most of the populated southwest.
 

Cdog

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The trend as of now is that if you were financing, you were better off buying a year ago with the higher prices and lower rates.

That trend holds true until roughly a 20% reduction in price. A reduction that has not yet happened on the coasts and most of the populated southwest.
If it takes 3 more years to hit that 20% off you just pissed into the wind on rent and wasted your time.

Outside of a black swan event I don’t see that happening anytime soon.
 

jet496

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All agents are suffering. At all price points. I have agents that were making $500k/yr wondering when they are gonna get their next commission. It’s UGLY out there for Realtors/Brokers/Lenders/Escrow/Etc.

The listings go pending quick. The problem is very few houses get listed anymore.
This. Absolutely nothing new has come on the market in the last month in my zip code & when they do get listed, anything worth a shit is pending in a few days. Crazy.
 

Looking Glass

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The trend as of now is that if you were financing, you were better off buying a year ago with the higher prices and lower rates.

That trend holds true until roughly a 20% reduction in price. A reduction that has not yet happened on the coasts and most of the populated southwest.



"IFs" AND "Buts":rolleyes:
 

monkeyswrench

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However the math does not lie.
Don't know where you've been the past few years, but here in America, math both lies, and now they say it's racist too!

Math, traditionally, is truthful. The problem sits with who's calculations are derived from who's sources. Much like the meme with one person saying "9", and the other "6".

I'm not a banker or investor. I know my strengths, and most of them are based in more "hands on" type skills. I'm far from brilliant, but consider myself to be reasonably bright. From my point of view, the smarter people in this discussion all have valid points, mostly backed by both facts and logic as well. The funny part is, the two diametrically opposed groups are quite obviously the two groups that make their living primarily from sources directly related to whatever side of the argument they back. In some ways, one may say their vision may be slightly clouded.

Like anything else, the actual truth will probably be found somewhere in the middle. 4900 posts, and neither "side" has actually been proven right, or wrong.
 
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