For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[Bajastu]

Canyon Lake CA....open houses around here actually work because its kinda a thing to do on the weekends, realtors will load families on golf carts and take them around looking at open houses, maybe have a few drinks, show them the parks and boat launches., give them the CL experience

My last house in Canyon Lake sold on the first day of open house. Seems to work from what I’ve seen.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Here is a blast from the past. Video I did on July 20, 2017.

Wow, seems like it was a sellers market then too and we had an inventory problem. Rates were around 4 - 4.5% at that time and people were saying that we were in a bubble and the market was going to crash.....lol

OJ had just gotten paroled too.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid0FGU8DqZCe6xZmXvpubTffFRdVgV4mfFV9WuPJCe18uyePnqpFyzfje4CVLQiEP3Wl&id=1454512810

 

[kurtis500]

Here is a blast from the past. Video I did on July 20, 2017.

Wow, seems like it was a sellers market then too and we had an inventory problem. Rates were around 4 - 4.5% at that time and people were saying that we were in a bubble and the market was going to crash.....lol

OJ had just gotten paroled too.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid0FGU8DqZCe6xZmXvpubTffFRdVgV4mfFV9WuPJCe18uyePnqpFyzfje4CVLQiEP3Wl&id=1454512810

Not saying a crash is coming, but in 2004 I felt the housing market was a bubble and would crash one day. It did, but not right away. 8 years later the prices bottomed out........time......

My friends hurt the most by the crash were living their best lives right up to the middle of 2008

 

[stillhustlin]

Utah everything in the $700k-1mil range is still moving but at price reductions. Low end seems stagnant such as townhomes. In my parents neighborhood (Sierra Madre) we had one home go $700k over ask and another at $780k over ask in the last month (listed in June after the whole rate hike thing took place). Seems like the wealthy $3 mil+ buyers are still playing while people that are affected by everything currently going on are not. I think this will be completely regional based as most pre 2008 recessions were. Our company has offices in Seattle and Portland and sales there are complete dead with major price reductions. I think we sold 2 homes in Seattle in the last 2 momthes and pre rate rise we were on track for 30.

 

[c_land]

Really feels like housing is going to have to work through the results of a temporary demand surge from poorly planned Covid policies.

Sales below precovid, mortgage demand lowest in 22 years. Prices….. all time highs?

Edited to add one headline I missed

 

[Bpracing1127]

I’m seeing substantial price cuts in southern utah right now. That market is way over inflated and dropping. I think we will see 2019-2020 #s

 

[stillhustlin]

I’m seeing substantial price cuts in southern utah right now. That market is way over inflated and dropping. I think we will see 2019-2020 #s

The issue with Southern Utah is all industry there is saturated around residential home building. Once that slows the whole thing come crashing down. I think that market could get hit a lot harder then havasu. In the long run St George and Cedar City have very few high paying jobs.

 

[MSum661]

Data from Univ. of Michigan this morning

 

[MSum661]

Fresh Data from Goldman Sachs

Housing Affordability index at as bad before the GFC.

 

[Bpracing1127]

The issue with Southern Utah is all industry there is saturated around residential home building. Once that slows the whole thing come crashing down. I think that market could get hit a lot harder then havasu. In the long run St George and Cedar City have very few high paying jobs.

Yep agreed 100-%. I have a remote job for that reason now

 

[Christopher Lucero]

My baby sis is in comm'l real estate and she told me many of the houses my parents sheltered us in are well above $1M now. So, I ventured onto Zillow and checked them out. Unbelievable. Five of the six have had no improvements at all since the 70's and 80's when we lived in them.
The one other one was a tear down that happened after the living trust sold it (after mom died).
They are rank, junk, used, abused. How anyone might or may consider purchase of of them at $1M+ is a mystery to me.
It is those properties that will suffer earliest especially if they are rentals, and too leveraged, ...ouch.

 

[NicPaus]

This should add a few more pages to an already long thread. lol

Lol. Show that pic to your Wife and I bet She will say the same thing my Fiancee will. Spray those cabinets white and swap the granite for quartz.

Not trying to be negative about his kitchen. One of the things We offer now for our realtors is give them a list of things to do before a sale to get maximum $$$. My Fiancee does design and I build. I have personally done the design for 18 years before we started dating.

At a minimum I would Spray the cabinets white. The granite and tile is not worth it unless it is over 1.5 listing. The cabinets will make a Huge difference. The last 15 kitchens we have done 14 were white. 1 was grey silver and 2 of the white ones had grey silver islands and 1 a dark blue Island. 10 of them were before sale and went for over asking.

 

[hallett21]

Rents in So Cal rocketing up 5–10% according to KFI 640 this morning

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

The issue with Southern Utah is all industry there is saturated around residential home building. Once that slows the whole thing come crashing down. I think that market could get hit a lot harder then havasu. In the long run St George and Cedar City have very few high paying jobs.

Aside from all the high paying people working from home.. of which there seems to be a substantial amount.

I don't see it getting hit harder than Havasu. There are actual jobs in South UT, along with tourism, along with a lot of retirees. Pre Covid prices could be a thing though, we will see.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Fresh Data from Goldman Sachs

Housing Affordability index at as bad before the GFC.

View attachment 1138423

LOL remember 19 into 20 when everyone here said housing was too expensive. Literally the 2nd most affordable time to buy in 25 years.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Really feels like housing is going to have to work through the results of a temporary demand surge from poorly planned Covid policies.

Sales below precovid, mortgage demand lowest in 22 years. Prices….. all time highs?

View attachment 1138422
View attachment 1138414

View attachment 1138415



View attachment 1138416
Edited to add one headline I missed

Still working through low supply it seems.. If no one is leaving their homes, it keeps prices high.

 

[gqchris]

Lol. Show that pic to your Wife and I bet She will say the same thing my Fiancee will. Spray those cabinets white and swap the granite for quartz.

Not trying to be negative about his kitchen. One of the things We offer now for our realtors is give them a list of things to do before a sale to get maximum $$$. My Fiancee does design and I build. I have personally done the design for 18 years before we started dating.

At a minimum I would Spray the cabinets white. The granite and tile is not worth it unless it is over 1.5 listing. The cabinets will make a Huge difference. The last 15 kitchens we have done 14 were white. 1 was grey silver and 2 of the white ones had grey silver islands and 1 a dark blue Island. 10 of them were before sale and went for over asking.

I was thinking exact thing also. My wife will walk right out of a house if the cabinetry is dated. She knows it easy to fix, but will just move on.

Same when I sold boats and RV's, we would lose 100k deals because the fucking stereo head unit didnt turn on! a 40$ item.

 

[Done-it-again]

The issue with Southern Utah is all industry there is saturated around residential home building. Once that slows the whole thing come crashing down. I think that market could get hit a lot harder then havasu. In the long run St George and Cedar City have very few high paying jobs.

ding ding ding.....If the area cannot support the prices then you can see bigger drops for that area..

 

[Done-it-again]

Aside from all the high paying people working from home.. of which there seems to be a substantial amount.

I don't see it getting hit harder than Havasu. There are actual jobs in South UT, along with tourism, along with a lot of retirees. Pre Covid prices could be a thing though, we will see.

Do you think work from home will be as big as its has been? IMO I see this changing for the majority of people in the next few years.... Not say your's specifically but others company's that adopted it in the last few years....

 

[attitude]

6 out of the 10 houses sold in my city over the last 14 days went for under asking price. Still high prices however.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Not Utah

 

[attitude]

Do you think work from home will be as big as its has been? IMO I see this changing for the majority of people in the next few years.... Not say your's specifically but others company's that adopted it in the last few years....

It’s already happening. Go to Antiwork on Reddit, it has 2.1 million followers and a majority of the posts are people complaining about having to come back to the office. I would love to work from home but find it is easier to work at the office.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Do you think work from home will be as big as its has been? IMO I see this changing for the majority of people in the next few years.... Not say your's specifically but others company's that adopted it in the last few years....

It really depends on the industry, but Pandora’s box has been opened. We aren’t going to have less WFH in the medium to long term, we will see more. I think companies may try to tie you to the region by requiring you to come in once a week, or 3 days a month or something like that.

Employers are still having trouble filling positions, so once the employment level drops that may change.. but still it is an enormous cost burden to maintain offices if you don’t have to. And now post Covid they have had to spread people out, with the same square footage.

I see it being rolled into companies ESG.. they can start claiming they are reducing their carbon footprint by not having their people come in to work.

If the top tier talent in your industry wants to work from home, then you will be at a disadvantage hiring talent that will work in an office every day.

 

[stillhustlin]

Aside from all the high paying people working from home.. of which there seems to be a substantial amount.

I don't see it getting hit harder than Havasu. There are actual jobs in South UT, along with tourism, along with a lot of retirees. Pre Covid prices could be a thing though, we will see.

I understand where your coming from but I think that’s a very small portion of the population. While I think the area is growing living there from 2015-2019 for college I think the job market is very limited. I would still live there now but I learned all the big construction projects going on there are traditionally managed from offices in Salt Lake. I ended up in Salt Lake and have run projects down there from up here. Majority of people I know down are either doing labor intensive/manufacturing jobs or working for their family’s business. I don’t know of anyone in finance/professional industries that have large offices based there. There’s some opportunities in construction there but when the well runs dry it’s a tough market. Retirees could help keep things going down there but at the same time I see it as a highly speculative market.

 

[mbrown2]

Fresh Data from Goldman Sachs

Housing Affordability index at as bad before the GFC.

View attachment 1138423

Interesting...these things take 3-5 years to work through....that's a cliff though in 20-22....I still think 3-4 years for prices to come down....but recent models don't trend like the last 20 years... inflation this time makes thing different.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

It’s already happening. Go to Antiwork on Reddit, it has 2.1 million followers and a majority of the posts are people complaining about having to come back to the office. I would love to work from home but find it is easier to work at the office.

Our Reno division which used to be my home office, just expanded work from home starting Sept 1st. Housing and commuting costs continued to be a concern employees shared in retention interviews. We don't wait for an exit interview; we try and stay in front of employee concerns. Thankfully they listen and figure out ways to solve problems.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I understand where your coming from but I think that’s a very small portion of the population. While I think the area is growing living there from 2015-2019 for college I think the job market is very limited. I would still live there now but I learned all the big construction projects going on there are traditionally managed from offices in Salt Lake. I ended up in Salt Lake and have run projects down there from up here. Majority of people I know down are either doing labor intensive/manufacturing jobs or working for their family’s business. I don’t know of anyone in finance/professional industries that have large offices based there. There’s some opportunities in construction there but when the well runs dry it’s a tough market. Retirees could help keep things going down there but at the same time I see it as a highly speculative market.

I don’t disagree with any of that, but we have to some degree entered a world where you don’t need an office in your town.

Construction will take a hit here, (it does not seem to have yet) but there are a lot of new folks here that are not tied to construction, or tied to any office here at all. If those people keep their roles and therefore their houses, nothing necessarily collapses.

This area is way way way more diversified from and industry perspective than a place like Havasu, which by all accounts seems to have grown in value even more aggressively from a price perspective.

I will add I fully expect my house to be valued at less than what I paid for a time as we transition through all of this.

 

[attitude]

Our Reno division which used to be my home office, just expanded work from home starting Sept 1st. Housing and commuting costs continued to be a concern employees shared in retention interviews. We don't wait for an exit interview; we try and stay in front of employee concerns. Thankfully they listen and figure out ways to solve problems.

I feel some employers are stuck in their habits and WFO isn’t one of them. WFO sure did dump the housing market on its head the last couple of years, the future will be interesting.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

some of these national graphs are pointless as real estate is a local thing. My clients that moved to Utah aren’t leaving and they aren’t going to fire sale their house either. WFH as a thing is here to stay. how it trends from here we don’t know, my guess would be that overall numbers increase but offset this with companies adjusting pay for geographic location and no they aren’t going to pay more for some boujee ski town location. You get paid at some Midwest low cost locale rate. Go live in Kansas or Arkansas

 

[Your ad here]

What to know what’s scary…that is cheaper than rent.

And the part of the money you pay per month goes back into personal wealth, interest is written off, no other people rules, monthly payment won't increase on a fixed loan, and no worries of getting a 30 day notice, that is out of your control.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I feel some employers are stuck in their habits and WFO isn’t one of them. WFO sure did dump the housing market on its head the last couple of years, the future will be interesting.

There are all kinds of employers that want/need to see their employees for whatever reason. Many are still stuck in their ways, that will have to change for firms to be successful in the future.

 

[MSum661]

Interesting...these things take 3-5 years to work through....that's a cliff though in 20-22....I still think 3-4 years for prices to come down....but recent models don't trend like the last 20 years... inflation this time makes thing different.

You're right. 3-5 years would be acceptable but it could 6-7 years just as easily from peak to trough. I guarantee you this though, nobody here knows!
As far as inflation and the magnitude of the trend in the downward spiral happening in front of eyes goes, the Fed most likely will NOT get this right without putting us into a stagflationary period, I call it the "denial" period, then over shoot which will get us to the "Actual" recession, not this recession people believe we are in now.
Which by then will add to the magnitude of the decline across the boards.

I say 6-7 years the cycle will be complete and the game starts over....just like it always does.

 

[HTMike]

I really don't care what people do business wise but I can't stand the whole work from home thing. My people never worked from home, even during lock down.

The insurance company I deal with for my warehouse/trucking company converted to work from home. Customer service fucking sucks. My agent confessed to me he was late getting back to me on several occasions because he was running his kids around during business hours. Fuck him.

I took my business and moved to a different agency. I refuse to do business with unstaffed service providers.

 

[Bpracing1127]

I really don't care what people do business wise but I can't stand the whole work from home thing. My people never worked from home, even during lock down.

The insurance company I deal with for my warehouse/trucking company converted to work from home. Customer service fucking sucks. My agent confessed to me he was late getting back to me on several occasions because he was running his kids around during business hours. Fuck him.

I took my business and moved to a different agency. I refuse to do business with unstaffed service providers.

It’s the wave of the future!!!

I’m looking forward to running my kids around all day too

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I really don't care what people do business wise but I can't stand the whole work from home thing. My people never worked from home, even during lock down.

The insurance company I deal with for my warehouse/trucking company converted to work from home. Customer service fucking sucks. My agent confessed to me he was late getting back to me on several occasions because he was running his kids around during business hours. Fuck him.

I took my business and moved to a different agency. I refuse to do business with unstaffed service providers.

Just a follow up question.

Are “your people” the same ones that are 1/3 dumb home purchasers using a ARM?

 

[Xtrmwakeboarder]

Things are changing over here in N. TX. I looked at a community that I originally wanted to buy in, and the incentives are coming back. $35k right now. When I purchased a year ago, they'd laugh you out of the office. That being said, no price reductions. Houses in that community were starting at $680k for the small lots. Get this, they are now starting at $1MM. The large lots/larger houses haven't jumped as much. They use to start at $1MM, and now sit at $1.2MM.

 

[Badchoices03]

I really don't care what people do business wise but I can't stand the whole work from home thing. My people never worked from home, even during lock down.

The insurance company I deal with for my warehouse/trucking company converted to work from home. Customer service fucking sucks. My agent confessed to me he was late getting back to me on several occasions because he was running his kids around during business hours. Fuck him.

I took my business and moved to a different agency. I refuse to do business with unstaffed service providers.

Pretty hard to work from home when you work in a warehouse or drive a truck.....but like it or not, working from home is going to become the norm going forward...companies learned how to do it, learned they can still be productive, and don't need tons of office space overhead...

Trust me, I don't like it either, I work from home, but commercial office space is a big part of our business and we are already seeing that business decline because of companies not bringing back workers..

 

[COCA COLA COWBOY]

I'm curious....I've have a few friends selling their business because of the employment issues. They are over it and due to the last couple years they don't even want their business anymore or want to be in their industry. All are excited to go work for someone else and have their lives back as we all know when you own a business it's 24/7. Will this affect the housing situation in your estimation?

I'm personally looking at changing industries so I can leave California. I'm about 2 months into learning another industry and think I have 6-12 more month before I am willing to depend on it for a primary source of income.

I also believe it's much better to be in San Diego or SoCal during a recession than in an outlying area like Idaho, TX, Tennessee, or Florida due to so many industries that will always continue through a downturn.

 

[hallett21]

If a home sells for 500k, does it really matter if it it was listed at 400 or 600k?

Everything sells for “what someone is willing to pay”.

Everyone should be tracking the sale prices year over year.

 

[HTMike]

Just a follow up question.

Are “your people” the same ones that are 1/3 dumb home purchasers using a ARM?

Haha.. yes.

 

[HTMike]

Pretty hard to work from home when you work in a warehouse or drive a truck.....but like it or not, working from home is going to become the norm going forward...companies learned how to do it, learned they can still be productive, and don't need tons of office space overhead...

Trust me, I don't like it either, I work from home, but commercial office space is a big part of our business and we are already seeing that business decline because of companies not bringing back workers..

I was talking about my office staff. I am glad my old provider is saving a bunch of money not staffing an office. He can balance his P/L sheet with the loss of my account. I do critical food supply and warehousing, a couple hundred thousand in premiums he lost.

There will always be staffed service providers. I will always seek them out.

 

[Roosky01]

Pretty hard to work from home when you work in a warehouse or drive a truck.....but like it or not, working from home is going to become the norm going forward...companies learned how to do it, learned they can still be productive, and don't need tons of office space overhead...

Trust me, I don't like it either, I work from home, but commercial office space is a big part of our business and we are already seeing that business decline because of companies not bringing back workers..

Commercial real estate might be the slow burning fuse that blows everything this go around? Long lease terms are softening the blow so far, but who the hell knows the impact of what's coming?

The architectural firm my Wife works at has a beautiful 57k sq.ft. office building they are locked into for 6 more years and have 6 more locations like it throughout the US. It was full pre-Covid of their employees and now they have approximately 15% of their employees come in once a week (because they are paying for this damn building) as most other employees are fully remote. If it wasn't for the lease, I'm sure they would've moved into 10K sq.ft. or less already since they have shown they are actually more efficient and profitable working from home, at least so far.

I'd hate to have a big portfolio of large office space right now...

 

[78Southwind]

The best is when the employee is working from home and using their cell phone. You call up the work phone and it has message to call them at their cell phone. So you call the cell phone, they don't answer and the voice mail is full so you have to call the work phone again to leave a message. It's even better when they went to the office for one day and had their cell phone diverted back to their work phone. So for the rest of the week you are caught in the loop of no return.

 

[mbrown2]

TX is not an outlying area....huge percentage of Corp HQ's there and only growing... TX (DFW and Austin) is likely one of the better places to be in a recession... Bay Area, So Cal another option but costlier living expenses...

I'm curious....I've have a few friends selling their business because of the employment issues. They are over it and due to the last couple years they don't even want their business anymore or want to be in their industry. All are excited to go work for someone else and have their lives back as we all know when you own a business it's 24/7. Will this affect the housing situation in your estimation?

I'm personally looking at changing industries so I can leave California. I'm about 2 months into learning another industry and think I have 6-12 more month before I am willing to depend on it for a primary source of income.

I also believe it's much better to be in San Diego or SoCal during a recession than in an outlying area like Idaho, TX, Tennessee, or Florida due to so many industries that will always continue through a downturn.

 

[gqchris]

The best is when the employee is working from home and using their cell phone. You call up the work phone and it has message to call them at their cell phone. So you call the cell phone, they don't answer and the voice mail is full so you have to call the work phone again to leave a message. It's even better when they went to the office for one day and had their cell phone diverted back to their work phone. So for the rest of the week you are caught in the loop of no return.

Please send any of those contacts my way, they are in dire need of a Modern VOIP Phone system! LOL

 

[gqchris]

There are all kinds of employers that want/need to see their employees for whatever reason. Many are still stuck in their ways, that will have to change for firms to be successful in the future.

We are getting push back from our CEO who keeps insisting on large in person gatherings and corporate retreats, then everyone gets the Rona, then we are short on staff, then the cycle repeats.

So when I need to hire Field techs that require on site work, I get maybe 2-3 resumes a week, and it takes months to fill the position once they are told again its onsite, they bail.

My helpdesk is 100% remote. Its filled within a DAY! and hundreds of applicants.

The people have spoken, and I cant say I agree with the way its going either, but like you said, companies have to pivot to stay staffed.

 

[PaPaG]

Ford just announced as a first round 8000 job layoffs for fossil fuel vehicles, supposedly to help fund their EV lineup.

 

[MSum661]

Ford just announced as a first round 8000 job layoffs for fossil fuel vehicles, supposedly to help fund their EV lineup.

"First" round layoffs for all that eh?
Maybe it has more to do with their $28.6 billion cash on hand and debt of $135.6 Billion.
I guess they gotta start somewhere.

 

[stillhustlin]

Ford just announced as a first round 8000 job layoffs for fossil fuel vehicles, supposedly to help fund their EV lineup.

Hopefully some of these people getting laid off own a Ford truck and have a fat payment. Still in the market for a new truck just waiting for someone to be down on their luck.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

"First" round layoffs for all that eh?
Maybe it has more to do with their $28.6 billion cash on hand and debt of $135.6 Billion.
I guess they gotta start somewhere.

LOL that will fix it.