For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[gqchris]

Yea I think it would be closer to 2/3… a $1m house is gonna rent for likely just under $5k in most parts of So Cal.

The location is the key. What city is that house in? Im WAY north of that monthly for my 2 bedroom apartment we just moved into.

 

[attitude]

Yea I think it would be closer to 2/3… a $1m house is gonna rent for likely just under $5k in most parts of So Cal.

Just depends, my neighbors at my old house bought the house in 2021. They rented a million dollar house in Chino Hills for 3k a month. When they bought and moved out the owner put it up for rent for 3,800. 5 bed with a rear shop, don’t know the sqf. This is what they told me I did not verify it.

 

[hallett21]

LA area is about 5k for a 3/2 with a 2 car garage. Right now that’s a 800k home.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Just depends, my neighbors at my old house bought the house in 2021. They rented a million dollar house in Chino Hills for 3k a month. When they bought and moved out the owner put it up for rent for 3,800. 5 bed with a rear shop, don’t know the sqf. This is what they told me I did not verify it.

Location is key. Also we are getting into a situation where rent has gone up so fast not everyone is renting for “market rates” for a variety of reasons.

My house was $1m, would have rented for north of $4500 in South OC. 1200sqft.

Generally speaking, most who bought more than 3 years ago would likely pay more in rent than their payment is today for the same house.

This is why I don’t see a 2008 happening and people just walking away. All those people have a known fixed payment that is competitive with rent and some equity.

 

[attitude]

Location is key. Also we are getting into a situation where rent has gone up so fast not everyone is renting for “market rates” for a variety of reasons.

My house was $1m, would have rented for north of $4500 in South OC. 1200sqft.

Generally speaking, most who bought more than 3 years ago would likely pay more in rent than their payment is today for the same house.

This is why I don’t see a 2008 happening and people just walking away. All those people have a known fixed payment that is competitive with rent and some equity.

Rental market is really strange right now, we were given a 90 day notice but told we could brake lease since finding something during the holidays is difficult. I noticed a lot of rentals were sitting for 1-2 months but everyone we talked to said rent was skyrocketing due to people not qualifying with the interest rate hikes. We had the lease for this new house in the works 3 days after we were given our 90 day notice because we didn’t want to take a chance. Did we make the right choice? Who knows, but we love the new house

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Funny, just read the "because no one ever leveraged debt"...

Seems there's a guy in the news of late, did just that, albeit on a much larger scale. When things are going good, leveraging debt makes big gains and can make you look like a genius. When things go bad, they can also go bad in an epic fashion.

Luckily, I've never been accused of being a genius.

Notice that the guy in question is still alive and on speaking tours .

“I made a mistake and will do better next time.” seems to work great when you have everyone paid off.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Rental market is really strange right now, we were given a 90 day notice but told we could brake lease since finding something during the holidays is difficult. I noticed a lot of rentals were sitting for 1-2 months but everyone we talked to said rent was skyrocketing due to people not qualifying with the interest rate hikes. We had the lease for this new house in the works 3 days after we were given our 90 day notice because we didn’t want to take a chance. Did we make the right choice? Who knows, but we love the new house

I think landlords are trying to capitalize by letting them sit at the top of the market hoping for a taker? That’s the only thing I can think of.

Glad you got a place you like.

 

[hallett21]

Man I feel like a strong argument could be made for rates to dip in 2023 and run up prices further. I’m not saying this is all roses and rainbows.

But looking at history the market can only take so many increases before they give some relief.

 

[monkeyswrench]

Man I feel like a strong argument could be made for rates to dip in 2023 and run up prices further. I’m not saying this is all roses and rainbows.

But looking at history the market can only take so many increases before they give some relief.

View attachment 1176580

That visual is scary AF! It does seem to ratchet a bit, so that's a little relief here and there, but the fact it has reached astronomical levels is frightening. Glad I was too young to notice it then, but worried I'll see it happen happen again.

 

[hallett21]

That visual is scary AF! It does seem to ratchet a bit, so that's a little relief here and there, but the fact it has reached astronomical levels is frightening. Glad I was too young to notice it then, but worried I'll see it happen happen again.

Crazy that for 40 +/- years we’ve only seen rates decline

 

[pronstar]

With inflation still higher than mortgage interest, folks with money would still put as little down as possible, methinks.

 

[hallett21]

With inflation still higher than mortgage interest, folks with money would still put as little down as possible, methinks.

Agreed. I think we look at 7k a month and go holy shit that’s a lot of money every month.

If it was 700 a month and 5,000 down most wouldn’t even hesitate to keep the additional 15k.

If you got deep pockets 7,8,9,20k can feel like 700.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Man I feel like a strong argument could be made for rates to dip in 2023 and run up prices further. I’m not saying this is all roses and rainbows.

But looking at history the market can only take so many increases before they give some relief.

View attachment 1176580

Rates take the elevator up and stairs down. I think by end of Q1, gloomy data will force the Fed to pivot and rates will gradually start their decent. I think by beginning of Q4 2023 we will be in a 4.5% - 5.25% range on 30 year fixed mortgages. There will be periods of low 4's and MAYBE high 3's but we probably will never see low 3's or sub 3% again.

 

[hallett21]

Rates take the elevator up and stairs down. I think by end of Q1, gloomy data will force the Fed to pivot and rates will gradually start their decent. I think by beginning of Q4 2023 we will be in a 4.5% - 5.25% range on 30 year fixed mortgages. There will be periods of low 4's and MAYBE high 3's but we probably will never see low 3's or sub 3% again.

Crazy how on 1 million (5% down) between 4 and 6 percent is $1,200 a month.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Crazy how on 1 million (5% down) between 4 and 6 percent is $1,200 a month.

Eh, it's just a payment on a new truck.....

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Crazy how on 1 million (5% down) between 4 and 6 percent is $1,200 a month.

Now imagine the people that got a rate in the 3s or the 2s… Yea they will just walk away from that to rent something. .

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Now imaging the people that got a rate in the 3s or the 2s… Yea they will just walk away from that to rent something. .

And the money they saved for so long to pay down payment and closing costs.

 

[HTMike]

And the money they saved for so long to pay down payment and closing costs.

They definitely aren't going to give away their house to the bank but they sure as hell aren't going to sell it for anything near what they paid for it either. LOL

Land Locked, but at least at a good rate.

 

[Havasu blue label]

It all sounds good on the board

 

[EmpirE231]

A lot of people predict rates to dip back down very quickly. Doubt it’ll bring any new highs though.

 

[c_land]

Case Shiller from September was released today if anyone is interested.

20-City Composite is +10% YOY and -1.24% MOM.

There’s a good discussion here:
https://calculatedrisk.substack.com..._id=87362402&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

They definitely aren't going to give away their house to the bank but they sure as hell aren't going to sell it for anything near what they paid for it either. LOL

Land Locked, but at least at a good rate.

Landlocked is fine. That is what many of us have said all along. Landlocked is not a housing collapse.

 

[hallett21]

Case Shiller from September was released today if anyone is interested.

20-City Composite is +10% YOY and -1.24% MOM.

There’s a good discussion here:
https://calculatedrisk.substack.com..._id=87362402&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email

View attachment 1176720

So are we on the 01, 08, 11 or 15 dip?

 

[regor]

 

[hallett21]

View attachment 1176735

Don’t forget the perpetual “rent” even when you pay it off lol

 

[hallett21]

The last 7 days of closed sales in LA area

 

[Looking Glass]

Landlocked is fine. That is what many of us have said all along. Landlocked is not a housing collapse.

Everyone's talking as though "Landlocked" is such a horrible thing. I don't understand that Unless you are in California and can't get out of that Man Made Disaster, for whatever reason

Moving "Out" Ain't always moving "UP"

 

[c_land]

So are we on the 01, 08, 11 or 15 dip?

I’m not an expert. But I don’t have a speed utv and don’t hate road bikers so this is the only thing I get to benchrace with you guys lol.

Read the article, he gives good insight to Case Shiller and their methodology.

That reading is for September closings. Those deals captured in this reading reflect June July and august signings before rates spiked even higher.

If you wanted to make an educated guess, you could probably expect it to fall further until you get some spring data in there.

even then Case shiller lags. You wouldn’t have a good spring time gauge of the market until like may?

 

[EmpirE231]

The last 7 days of closed sales in LA area

View attachment 1176739

Also price reductions within the last 7 days.

 

[pronstar]

Case-Schiller data is good so long as the market you’re interested in is among the 20 markets they sample, or is similar to one of them.

But I don’t think it’s a good measure of the broad RE market, because it varies widely.

Some pundits agree with me, others disagree…use the data that best aligns with your situation.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

We are going to need a new case of hats...

 

[regor]

Ugly JOLT: Job Openings Plunge By 353,000 As Hiring, Quits Tumble To Multi-Year Lows​

The US labor market is getting uglier by the day.

WED NOV 30, AT 7:33 AM

 

[hallett21]

Ugly JOLT: Job Openings Plunge By 353,000 As Hiring, Quits Tumble To Multi-Year Lows​

The US labor market is getting uglier by the day.

WED NOV 30, AT 7:33 AM

Interesting how much hospitality increased in jobs

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Ugly JOLT: Job Openings Plunge By 353,000 As Hiring, Quits Tumble To Multi-Year Lows​

The US labor market is getting uglier by the day.

WED NOV 30, AT 7:33 AM

We need to fall a lot further than that to get through this. It is gonna take awhile.

 

[HNL2LHC]

We are going to need a new case of hats...

Alright who has not been holding on tight enough?

 

[bonesfab]

Alright who has not been holding on tight enough?

Maybe some flexfits. Might stay on better.

 

[hallett21]

 

[Havasu blue label]

We need to fall a lot further than that to get through this. It is gonna take awhile.

You should be fine sold a California property and down graded to a lower cost of living state

 

[Havasu Rehab]

Fed Chair Powell says smaller interest rate hikes could start in December — CNBC

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed Wednesday that smaller interest rate increases are likely ahead.

stocks.apple.com

Looks like smaller rate hikes are in the future.

 

[yuppie]

Glad I was able to lock a 6.5% rate with a 2:1 buy-down. 4.5% interest for the first year, 5.5% interest for the second year.

Looking to refi in the next couple years depending on how the market goes. Just glad to have a nice place out here in Havasu!

 

[Havasu blue label]

Fed Chair Powell says smaller interest rate hikes could start in December — CNBC

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed Wednesday that smaller interest rate increases are likely ahead.

stocks.apple.com

Looks like smaller rate hikes are in the future.

Well that’s a good sign

 

[Havasu blue label]

Glad I was able to lock a 6.5% rate with a 2:1 buy-down. 4.5% interest for the first year, 5.5% interest for the second year.

Looking to refi in the next couple years depending on how the market goes. Just glad to have a nice place out here in Havasu!

It should be mid 4 in 2023 which is a good rate

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Glad I was able to lock a 6.5% rate with a 2:1 buy-down. 4.5% interest for the first year, 5.5% interest for the second year.

Looking to refi in the next couple years depending on how the market goes. Just glad to have a nice place out here in Havasu!

You should refinance that as soon as rates allow. Whatever subsidy funds for the 2-1 buydown that are left can be used as a principal reduction.

 

[socal0487]

Isolated or a sign of what’s to come?

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Isolated or a sign of what’s to come?

Well it is pending, so who knows what the contract price is. No boat garage, no backyard, no view, no walls, cheap finishes, no tile roof and is pretty high up on the south side. Only thing that appears like a good selling point is it is natural gas.

Bought in 2012 for $253K and refinanced in 2013 for $120K so probably owes nothing. The $439K price was 2021 levels, but the market has adjusted out there and things are coming back in line with where they should be. Remember that 2020 / 2021 & part of 2022 were NOT A NORMAL MARKET. There is nothing you have to fear that is "coming." All this shows is the market returning back to normal and homes pricing where they should be.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Isolated or a sign of what’s to come?

That is like your wife going to Nordstrom’s and buying a $800 purse that was “on sale” for 50% off of a list price that was inflated 200%.

 

[530RL]

Just watch the stock market in the next 2 weeks. We are going to have another drop. Then Powell will say .75 and it will dump again....then we will get CPI and PPI data again and it will rally. However, next year we are going to see a brutal dip and major layoffs. Just my .02. If you don't believe me, I dare you to go all in.

At least two weeks is a measurable time period. As of this post.

Dow 33,582.91

Nasdaq 11,190.21

S&P 500 3,971.83

Let’s check it on the 30th.

Here we are two weeks later as it is the 30th:

Dow 33,582.91 two weeks ago moves up 3.00 percent to 34,589.77

Nasdaq 11,190.21 two weeks ago moves up 2.49 percent to 11,468.00

S&P 500 3,971.83 two weeks ago moves up 2.73 percent to 4,080.11.

Beats me where it goes in the future but those are the facts for the last two weeks.

 

[retaocleg]

"buy high, sell low..........." - FOMO americans

 

[Havasu blue label]

Well it is pending, so who knows what the contract price is. No boat garage, no backyard, no view, no walls, cheap finishes, no tile roof and is pretty high up on the south side. Only thing that appears like a good selling point is it is natural gas.

Bought in 2012 for $253K and refinanced in 2013 for $120K so probably owes nothing. The $439K price was 2021 levels, but the market has adjusted out there and things are coming back in line with where they should be. Remember that 2020 / 2021 & part of 2022 were NOT A NORMAL MARKET. There is nothing you have to fear that is "coming." All this shows is the market returning back to normal and homes pricing where they should be.

The garage is not finished windows original

 

[Havasu blue label]

That is like your wife going to Nordstrom’s and buying a $800 purse that was “on sale” for 50% off of a list price that was inflated 200%.

Ok so we are comparing a purse to a property come bro you are better then that