For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[MSum661]

Latest read of existing single family homes Months Supply

 

[DC-88]

Likewise. Thanks for all your help with our house! BTW I had some shirts and swag in my truck for you and totally spaced out on giving them to you. Lets link up again soon.

Love the logo - just got this in the mail the other day

 

[badgas]

Good one havasu market make me laugh we owned properties there for 20 years my sons for 4 years it’s a great city but it needs to slow down

There was one ?

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

You should of bought Mgm at 9

yea sure. I bought GUSH at $12 instead.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Latest read of existing single family homes Months Supply

View attachment 1144857

Trending in the right direction but not even close to normal. We have a couple weeks more supply than a year ago after some of the most aggressive rate hikes in modern history.

 

[Racer56]

So yesterday we started calling about building a pool in Havasu. I can’t tell you how many we so willing to meet us this or next week to get things moving forward. It is like they are seeing fewer opportunities out there. We will see what the start times are and how long the build will take. Oh yeah and what the cost will be….

It's one thing for the companies to answer the phone, but let's see how many actually give you a bid in a timely manner! #havasutime

 

[PaPaG]

Same lines for 7+ years.. “The end is near”

Not from me, I was riding the increases all the way to the bank then I dumped it ALL except the new place I was building...facts are facts and as they say in the REAL WORLD what goes UP MUST COME DOWN

 

[PaPaG]

Your factual research entails finance companies laying off employees, it doesn’t take a brain surgeon to tell you when the interest rates spike refinances are going to drop hence no longer the need for as many finance people. Never once have I said the market wasn’t gonna drop quite the opposite just don’t understand the constant cheerleading for it to take a major drop.

Amazon is NOT a finance company...nor is Microsoft, nor is Google, nor is Ebay, nor is a dozen other monsters titans reporting layoffs and thousands more to follow...Again you better watch the stock market a little to get some more facts, layoffs are here and ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE according to the smartest economic folks I have seen interviewed and read articles about along with factual data....Amazon one of the MARKET TREND and ECONOMIC INDICATORS that has laid off 108k employees so far this year and they say many more to follow, thousands more every week in all avenues of business...again I DO NOT want our economy to take a shit, but it is. Not to get political but I have to, Biden and his full of shit administration along with the idiots at the FED have screwed up our great economy and housing is following suit...Sad to say.

 

[PaPaG]

it's smoke and mirrors.... even if the prices drop 20%.... the dollar lost 50%....

Dollar was at his highest vs most other nations recently, you could buy much more around the globe but it is worth crap now vs 20 years ago, I personally rather be on the gold standard/system but that is my personal opinion, once we went of it it all went to shit especially with the Feds printing money like its toilet paper during the covid crisis...

 

[bentprops]

 

[530RL]

Amazon is NOT a finance company...nor is Microsoft, nor is Google, nor is Ebay, nor is a dozen other monsters titans reporting layoffs and thousands more to follow...Again you better watch the stock market a little to get some more facts, layoffs are here and ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE according to the smartest economic folks I have seen interviewed and read articles about along with factual data....Amazon one of the MARKET TREND and ECONOMIC INDICATORS that has laid off 108k employees so far this year and they say many more to follow, thousands more every week in all avenues of business...again I DO NOT want our economy to take a shit, but it is. Not to get political but I have to, Biden and his full of shit administration along with the idiots at the FED have screwed up our great economy and housing is following suit...Sad to say.

Did Amazon actually lay off 108,000 employees, about ten percent of their workforce or did Amazon announce that they will slow the hiring of 108,000 planned new employees and rely on natural attrition to reduce head count?

I can’t find the Layoff announcement in their public filings and so will you put it up?

Thanks.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Amazon Mountain View corp Northern California and Texas

 

[PaPaG]

Did Amazon actually lay off 108,000 employees, about ten percent of their workforce or did Amazon announce that they will slow the hiring of 108,000 planned new employees and rely on natural attrition to reduce head count?

I can’t find the Layoff announcement in their public filings and so will you put it up?

Thanks.

They actually laid off 108k to date.

Amazon laid off nearly 100,000 employees in the June quarter, the company disclosed in its earnings report. The e-commerce giant cut its workforce by nearly 6%, by far the largest in a single quarter. Amazon isn’t the only tech giant to lay off people in such huge numbers, other big tech companies like Microsoft, Netflix, and Shopify have laid people off. Google, on the other hand, did not lay off but slowed down.

Amazon revealed in its earnings report that the company ended the June quarter with 1,523,000 full-time and part-time employees, which does not include contractors and temporary employees. The total workforce was down from 1,622,000 at the end of March. Amazon Chief Financial Officer Brian Olsavsky cited overstaffing as the reason for the mass layoff.

“As the variance eased in the second half of the quarter and employees returned from furlough, we quickly went from being understaffed to overstaffed, resulting in lower productivity” , did he declare. Despite the dwindling number of employees, Amazon remains the largest employer in the tech industry.

Amazon isn’t the only company cutting costs. Google has also slowed its hiring. Company CEO Sundar Pichai had informed employees through a memo of a slowdown in hiring.

“Due to the progress made in hiring so far this year, we will slow the pace of hiring for the remainder of the year, while supporting our most important opportunities. For the remainder of 2022 and 2023, we will focus our recruiting on engineering, technical and other critical roles, and ensure the great talent we hire is aligned with our long-term priorities. To move forward we must be more enterprising, working with greater urgency, sharper focus and more hunger than we have shown on sunnier days,” he wrote.

Apple also plans to slow hiring and focus on potential divisions to deal with a potential economic meltdown.

 

[havasujeeper]

News reported that Chase Bank is currently laying off 100,000 employees.

 

[D19]

Love the logo - just got this in the mail the other day
View attachment 1144864

Thanks! PM me your shirt size and address and I'll mail you a tank top!

 

[Badchoices03]

Love the logo - just got this in the mail the other day
View attachment 1144864

lol thats probably the best realtor logo I have ever seen....makes me want to sell my riverfront property that I don't even have!!

 

[PaPaG]

Thanks! PM me your shirt size and address and I'll mail you a tank top!

Hello Dennis, you guys just sent me a letter, lol...small world.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

News reported that Chase Bank is currently laying off 100,000 employees.

Hope they had some hats!

 

[Badchoices03]

I thought I read somewhere that the 100k Amazon workers that were laid off were because of overstaffing the warehouses because of the pandemic??? Although its still a big number, I think its a bit different.

 

[HNL2LHC]

Hope they had some hats!

So they have something to hold on to or to block the sun as they are out looking for new jobs?

 

[badgas]

News reported that Chase Bank is currently laying off 100,000 employees.

Record low unemployment, Stock market running back up and still there are a lot more jobs open than people looking.

They should be able to find work.

Sorry to report something possitive shame on me.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Record low unemployment, Stock market running back up and still there are a lot more jobs open than people looking.

They should be able to find work.

Sorry to report something possitive shame on me.

Look at the goddamn facts man!!

 

[Gonefishin5555]

News reported that Chase Bank is currently laying off 100,000 employees.

Do you have a link for the story? I’m not seeing it anywhere.

 

[westair]

Record low unemployment, Stock market running back up and still there are a lot more jobs open than people looking.

They should be able to find work.

Sorry to report something possitive shame on me.

I got to keep reading this thread to remind myself everything is not ok! .....lol ..... busier than ever at work, gave up trying to hire more people .... were now adjusting the work load for the employees we do have..

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I got to keep reading this thread to remind myself everything is not ok! .....lol ..... busier than ever at work, gave up trying to hire more people .... were now adjusting the work load for the employees we do have..

I don’t think anyone is going to argue we have some issues brewing and are in recession. The sky is just not falling tomorrow as it relates to RE.

Glad to hear you are still busy.

 

[DRYHEAT]

Look at the goddamn facts man!!

FACTS, we don’t need no stinking facts!

 

[PaPaG]

I thought I read somewhere that the 100k Amazon workers that were laid off were because of overstaffing the warehouses because of the pandemic??? Although its still a big number, I think its a bit different.

I invest in Amazon and read their reports constantly. They were busy and overbuilt thinking they were going to stay busy and continue to grow but then the pandemic hit and they furloughed employees, as the pandemic curbed they brought back the employees expecting things to get back to normal, when it did not and they realized it they had to lay them off due to the HUGE slow downs. They are actually now selling warehouses that were not being used any longer.

 

[westair]

I don’t think anyone is going to argue we have some issues brewing and are in recession. The sky is just not falling tomorrow as it relates to RE.

Glad to hear you are still busy.

thanks ...... in the commercial ac biz for new construction and remodels

 

[PaPaG]

I love how some avoid the actual facts and think for example that employment numbers are the KEY Indicator of the economy especially when facts state that over 60% of the new employment numbers that just came out are part time low paying jobs that they fail to mention it until you dig deep into the numbers. 32-38% of the work force is still sitting on the sidelines thus the employee shortages and that is the cause of the excessive work loads and everyone willing to work is overloaded (which I am also happy about because I also own a business, love those excessive work loads for sure keeps my team really busy).....

 

[HCP3]

View attachment 1144966

 

[DRYHEAT]

View attachment 1145008

It’s the new math.

 

[hallett21]

I love how some avoid the actual facts and think for example that employment numbers are the KEY Indicator of the economy especially when facts state that over 60% of the new employment numbers that just came out are part time low paying jobs that they fail to mention it until you dig deep into the numbers. 32-38% of the work force is still sitting on the sidelines thus the employee shortages and that is the cause of the excessive work loads and everyone willing to work is overloaded (which I am also happy about because I also own a business, love those excessive work loads for sure keeps my team really busy).....

Ok but what kind of jobs are being laid off?

 

[rivermobster]

I'm wondering how many of you guys are actually Following the housing market, for real??

It's kinna like this...

It's 1am and the bar is closing soon. You look around and realize the hot women are gone or paired up, and only the less desirable women are still standing around single.

What do you do!?!?!

Take what you can get? Call it a night and go home? Decided to turn gay and try and join the other team? Your options are severely limited this late in the game!!

And now due to supply chain issues, the price of drinks has gone Way up. So you don't want to be throwing money away on a less than desirable score!!!

If you actually LOOk at what's for sale today, all the best houses are gone...

School is starting up soon, so no family wants to move right as school starts, so there are less houses coming up on the market these days. (less hot chicks in the bar)

This is NORMAL stuff folks. It happens pretty much every year.

Trying to infer some world ending scenario from the normal cycle of things is just dumb.

It's like some of you guys never went to the bars to get laid when you were younger??

It's a big world out there. Get off your seat and come check it out. For reals!!!

Peace.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

View attachment 1145008

With

I love how some avoid the actual facts and think for example that employment numbers are the KEY Indicator of the economy especially when facts state that over 60% of the new employment numbers that just came out are part time low paying jobs that they fail to mention it until you dig deep into the numbers. 32-38% of the work force is still sitting on the sidelines thus the employee shortages and that is the cause of the excessive work loads and everyone willing to work is overloaded (which I am also happy about because I also own a business, love those excessive work loads for sure keeps my team really busy).....

employment numbers are important and a key indicator of the overall health of the economy. If people aren’t working they can’t spend and pay their bills

 

[Bpracing1127]

being in the market for a house the above is true right now

 

[hallett21]

I'm wondering how many of you guys are actually Following the housing market, for real??

It's kinna like this...

It's 1am and the bar is closing soon. You look around and realize the hot women are gone or paired up, and only the less desirable women are still standing around single.

What do you do!?!?!

Take what you can get? Call it a night and go home? Decided to turn gay and try and join the other team? Your options are severely limited this late in the game!!

And now due to supply chain issues, the price of drinks has gone Way up. So you don't want to be throwing money away on a less than desirable score!!!

If you actually LOOk at what's for sale today, all the best houses are gone...

School is starting up soon, so no family wants to move right as school starts, so there are less houses coming up on the market these days. (less hot chicks in the bar)

This is NORMAL stuff folks. It happens pretty much every year.

Trying to infer some world ending scenario from the normal cycle of things is just dumb.

It's like some of you guys never went to the bars to get laid when you were younger??

It's a big world out there. Get off your seat and come check it out. For reals!!!

Peace.

I just need to know what the “gay” purchase is

 

[mesquito_creek]

There is a 15 year waiting list for Airplane hanger rentals at Chandler Muni and 5 plus years at Falcon Field and Casa Grande... Someone wake me up when its under a year. Until then there isn't any reason to get worked up about it.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I love how some avoid the actual facts and think for example that employment numbers are the KEY Indicator of the economy especially when facts state that over 60% of the new employment numbers that just came out are part time low paying jobs that they fail to mention it until you dig deep into the numbers. 32-38% of the work force is still sitting on the sidelines thus the employee shortages and that is the cause of the excessive work loads and everyone willing to work is overloaded (which I am also happy about because I also own a business, love those excessive work loads for sure keeps my team really busy).....

Because the part time, low paid workers are the ones buying houses

Those people on the sidelines aren’t going back to work. If they needed to work they would be working by now. Maybe that explains why employment is still not wavering much. For the 100k people Chase fired, there are 150k more that found jobs or the Chase people got a new job in a few weeks, because as a whole firms are still net adding jobs.

You keep referring to only the “facts” that support your position and bury your head in the sand when any other factual information is brought up.

The post you just made is a perfect example is why housing prices have not fallen off the cliff you predicted 3 months ago. Baristas, servers and other minimum wage job holders that can’t afford houses are not buying or selling them. Significant RE price changes will be near the last indicator of the poor economy, not the leading one. People with houses need to transact them. We are still not even back to a “normal” market as it relates to transactions.

The market is decimated when a $700k house has to drop $20k to move.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Ok but what kind of jobs are being laid off?

Don’t ask relevant questions , these are FACTS.

 

[rivermobster]

I just need to know what the “gay” purchase is

I hope you are asking for a friend!!!

 

[Sportin' Wood]

The market is decimated when a $700k house has to drop $20k to move.

Not if the $700K house is $150K overpriced. I feel like that needs to get cleaned up first before can even think about what a crash is or is not.

I think the problem is the alignment of pricing expectations. There are a few camps on RPD that give me different perceptions of what they believe, but it is me assuming things based on posts. I bet we are all not far from being aligned on where pricing is headed.

FOMO is gone for now. It seems we can identify the houses that need to sell, and they are popping up. This one would have traded in a moment with multiple offers a year ago.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/41537-Pine-Tree-Ln-Polson-MT-59860/116509174_zpid/

That's a nice property, but it borders on a bad location. It is not Polson; they are stretching the location because Pablo has a lot of low-income housing. Not sure why they have the urgency in the ad if they have renters. My guess is old pictures, but who knows? Not in an area, I am interested in. Too far for a beer run or to launch the boat for me. Edit: I am gonna do a drive-by this afternoon on this place to see what the hood looks like since this area is hit and miss.

I'm happy if we go back to 2019 pricing, and we can have time for inspections, due diligence, and negotiations. IMHO that is not a crash but a return to normal.

 

[angiebaby]

Not if the $700K house is $150K overpriced. I feel like that needs to get cleaned up first before can even think about what a crash is or is not.

I think the problem is the alignment of pricing expectations. There are a few camps on RPD that give me different perceptions of what they believe, but it is me assuming things based on posts. I bet we are all not far from being aligned on where pricing is headed.

FOMO is gone for now. It seems we can identify the houses that need to sell, and they are popping up. This one would have traded in a moment with multiple offers a year ago.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/41537-Pine-Tree-Ln-Polson-MT-59860/116509174_zpid/

That's a nice property, but it borders on a bad location. It is not Polson; they are stretching the location because Pablo has a lot of low-income housing. Not sure why they have the urgency in the ad if they have renters. My guess is old pictures, but who knows? Not in an area, I am interested in. Too far for a beer run or to launch the boat for me. Edit: I am gonna do a drive-by this afternoon on this place to see what the hood looks like since this area is hit and miss.

I'm happy if we go back to 2019 pricing, and we can have time for inspections, due diligence, and negotiations. IMHO that is not a crash but a return to normal.

It has honey-oak cabinets. Take $150K off the value for that

 

[evantwheeler]

I just need to know what the “gay” purchase is

Renting while also making payments on your boat, toy hauler, and bro-dozer diesel, and then putting a down payment on a speed SXS and sitting on the sidelines waiting for it to appear while trying to also sell your spot in line.

 

[530RL]

They actually laid off 108k to date.

Amazon laid off nearly 100,000 employees in the June quarter, the company disclosed in its earnings report. The e-commerce giant cut its workforce by nearly 6%, by far the largest in a single quarter. Amazon isn’t the only tech giant to lay off people in such huge numbers, other big tech companies like Microsoft, Netflix, and Shopify have laid people off. Google, on the other hand, did not lay off but slowed down.

Amazon revealed in its earnings report that the company ended the June quarter with 1,523,000 full-time and part-time employees, which does not include contractors and temporary employees. The total workforce was down from 1,622,000 at the end of March. Amazon Chief Financial Officer Brian Olsavsky cited overstaffing as the reason for the mass layoff.

“As the variance eased in the second half of the quarter and employees returned from furlough, we quickly went from being understaffed to overstaffed, resulting in lower productivity” , did he declare. Despite the dwindling number of employees, Amazon remains the largest employer in the tech industry.

Amazon isn’t the only company cutting costs. Google has also slowed its hiring. Company CEO Sundar Pichai had informed employees through a memo of a slowdown in hiring.

“Due to the progress made in hiring so far this year, we will slow the pace of hiring for the remainder of the year, while supporting our most important opportunities. For the remainder of 2022 and 2023, we will focus our recruiting on engineering, technical and other critical roles, and ensure the great talent we hire is aligned with our long-term priorities. To move forward we must be more enterprising, working with greater urgency, sharper focus and more hunger than we have shown on sunnier days,” he wrote.

Apple also plans to slow hiring and focus on potential divisions to deal with a potential economic meltdown.

Thanks for that. It is quite confusing as the CFO of Amazon stated on the July 28, 2022 conference call that the reduction in headcount was primarily due to attrition and he sees good hiring rates for the future. That contradicts the article that you posted. Beats me?

Amazon sheds record 99k employees after overstaffing warehouses, will slow office hiring

Amazon’s direct workforce declined by 99,000 employees from the first to the second quarter, to 1.52 million people, the largest sequential drop in its history, after overstaffing its warehouses to… Read More

www.geekwire.com

From the Q2 conference call transcript:

Stephen Ju -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

OK. So Brian, I think you just reported a quarter-on-quarter decline in headcount, which was by design after what happened last quarter. But it won't be too long before you are gearing up for the holidays. So how do you think the environment is going to fair for you to be adding headcount? And also, the stock-based compensation came in below where you had guided for the second quarter.

So is this a matter of not hitting the hiring goals you were hoping for? Or do you think the environment for the hiring of technical and engineering talent is losing a little bit?

Brian Olsavsky -- Chief Financial Officer

Sure, Stephen. Thank you. On the headcount, yes, I think it was more, as we mentioned last quarter, last year in -- or excuse me, in Q1, we added -- to give you a flavor for it, we added 14,000 workers in Q1. Prior year, we had reduced our net headcount by 27,000.

So we're pretty transparent about the fact that we had hired a lot of people in Q1 for the coverage of the omicron variant. Luckily, that variant subsided, and we were left with a higher headcount position. We've -- that has come down through adjusting our hiring levels and normal attrition, and is pretty -- was pretty much resolved by the end of April or early part of May. So that is dominating the quarter-over-quarter reduction in head count.

I would note that we're still up 188,000 year over year and nearly double the headcount of what we had heading into the pandemic in early 2020. So you're right, there will be adjustments to that as we move forward into more holiday-level demand. Right now, we see a stabilization in the workforce. I think we see good hiring rates.

And so I think as you remember, it was a very difficult labor period in the second half of last year, and it didn't -- it arrived kind of quickly out of nowhere. So we're certainly diligent on that and making sure we have a good workplace and an environment that will attract employees.

Amazon (AMZN) Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

AMZN earnings call for the period ending June 30, 2022.

www.fool.com

 

[evantwheeler]

Not if the $700K house is $150K overpriced. I feel like that needs to get cleaned up first before can even think about what a crash is or is not.

I think the problem is the alignment of pricing expectations. There are a few camps on RPD that give me different perceptions of what they believe, but it is me assuming things based on posts. I bet we are all not far from being aligned on where pricing is headed.

FOMO is gone for now. It seems we can identify the houses that need to sell, and they are popping up. This one would have traded in a moment with multiple offers a year ago.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/41537-Pine-Tree-Ln-Polson-MT-59860/116509174_zpid/

That's a nice property, but it borders on a bad location. It is not Polson; they are stretching the location because Pablo has a lot of low-income housing. Not sure why they have the urgency in the ad if they have renters. My guess is old pictures, but who knows? Not in an area, I am interested in. Too far for a beer run or to launch the boat for me. Edit: I am gonna do a drive-by this afternoon on this place to see what the hood looks like since this area is hit and miss.

I'm happy if we go back to 2019 pricing, and we can have time for inspections, due diligence, and negotiations. IMHO that is not a crash but a return to normal.

Who is renting homes for $4k/mo in BFE montana?!? Who is renting 1br appartment for $2300? These are CA rents. I like the wording though, "rents up to". The income potential in MT does not match these rates, same with the selling prices in these rural areas. The income is not there to support the prices, you have to bring your money with you.

Edit: thats a beautiful area/property and I'd kill to have that shop.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

Black knight mortgage monitor data for June:

Annual home price growth dropped nearly 2% in June the greatest single month slowdown since the early 1970s.

Home prices would need to drop by this amount for 6 months to hit 5% annual appreciation long run averages.

It will take 5 months for interest rate raised to show full effect on housing market and slowing will increase.

25% of markets are showing 4-5% slowdown.

Seasonally adjusted Inventory is up 22% but still 54% below 2017-2019 levels.

At current rate of listing increases it will take over a year to hit normal supply levels.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Not if the $700K house is $150K overpriced. I feel like that needs to get cleaned up first before can even think about what a crash is or is not.

I think the problem is the alignment of pricing expectations. There are a few camps on RPD that give me different perceptions of what they believe, but it is me assuming things based on posts. I bet we are all not far from being aligned on where pricing is headed.

FOMO is gone for now. It seems we can identify the houses that need to sell, and they are popping up. This one would have traded in a moment with multiple offers a year ago.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/41537-Pine-Tree-Ln-Polson-MT-59860/116509174_zpid/

That's a nice property, but it borders on a bad location. It is not Polson; they are stretching the location because Pablo has a lot of low-income housing. Not sure why they have the urgency in the ad if they have renters. My guess is old pictures, but who knows? Not in an area, I am interested in. Too far for a beer run or to launch the boat for me. Edit: I am gonna do a drive-by this afternoon on this place to see what the hood looks like since this area is hit and miss.

I'm happy if we go back to 2019 pricing, and we can have time for inspections, due diligence, and negotiations. IMHO that is not a crash but a return to normal.

Agreed. No one disagrees prices are on a decline. No one disagrees there are going to be fewer mortgages and refis under these conditions. I think the constant doom and gloom that the bottom is going to fall out “tomorrow” is where the disagreement comes in. History tells us that won’t happen, even in 2008 housing declined aggressively, but took half a decade to bottom out. As we have outlined, there are key factors today that are very different.

Price drops on over priced houses are not reflective of reality. Actual sales and sale prices are where we can actually gain knowledge, and those are lagging indicators. We have not even returned to that “normal” market with respect to inventory and pricing, and if rates don’t subside in the medium term, we may not for awhile as there is less incentive and ability to pay more per month for a mortgage given the current climate.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Black knight mortgage monitor data for June:

Annual home price growth dropped nearly 2% in June the greatest single month slowdown since the early 1970s.

Home prices would need to drop by this amount for 6 months to hit 5% annual appreciation long run averages.

It will take 5 months for interest rate raised to show full effect on housing market and slowing will increase.

25% of markets are showing 4-5% slowdown.

Seasonally adjusted Inventory is up 22% but still 54% below 2017-2019 levels.

At current rate of listing increases it will take over a year to hit normal supply levels.

These are FACTS. Thank you.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Who is renting homes for $4k/mo in BFE montana?!? Who is renting 1br appartment for $2300? These are CA rents. I like the wording though, "rents up to". The income potential in MT does not match these rates, same with the selling prices in these rural areas. The income is not there to support the prices, you have to bring your money with you.

Edit: thats a beautiful area/property and I'd kill to have that shop.

Lots of people have lots of money to bring. to BFE. Welcome to the new normal.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Who is renting homes for $4k/mo in BFE montana?!? Who is renting 1br appartment for $2300? These are CA rents. I like the wording though, "rents up to". The income potential in MT does not match these rates, same with the selling prices in these rural areas. The income is not there to support the prices, you have to bring your money with you.

Edit: thats a beautiful area/property and I'd kill to have that shop.

I would not be surprised about the shop/apartment because it looks like they are running a business out of it. That is normal up here to have a business outside a commercial area.

The Up to Rent price is likely because they are renting to multiple parties as rooms for rent. My guess is a cluster Fawk and beat to shit or VRBO that is unwinding and needs to liquidate. Edit: Look closely at the pictures; if these are not old pictures, it is a work-from-home situation. Looks like video editing. That might justify the rent as it is someone with enough income that came from California and thinks that is the cheapest apple he has ever seen.

Rent is a massive problem in Montana; the Gov just approved a task force to aggressively look for ways to solve affordable housing here. Absentee ownership makes up much of the housing; we see some amazing properties around the state that sit empty with weeds and neglect.

I think you would be surprised by the rent rates. Our Summer Campspot is a significantly higher rate than our Islander spot, with some RV resort spots costing $3K a month. Young families live in RV parks; I can't imagine what the winter is like in an RV.

My SIL is a PA and tells me horror stories of Doctors and Nurses that can't find housing. They can't buy anything because the student loan debt prevents them from qualifying. Finding rentals in a resort area is tough when the STR market is perceived as hot. I see the medical pros as a pretty safe bet for renters.



EDIT: I did a drive-by of the area, but I did not drive directly in front of the property as the Zillow ad asks not to disrupt the renters. The shop is being rented to a small engine repair business; they have decent signage on the interstate directing you to this location. Seems established, and hard to imagine them wanting to move. The area is mixed between mobile homes and rural houses with mostly crappy yards. I don't see this selling without serious discounting from the asking price. The only shopping is Harvest Foods which is a pretty common rural grocery store between Idaho and Montana. I've never been to that location. There are multiple mobile home parks in the general location. The SKC community college is about 2 miles away, and the power company has a big yard about a mile and a half away. Looks like crime might be an issue; I would not be comfortable leaving my shop for the winter in this location.


I would not consider a significant price reduction on this home a "Crash" but rather a correction or return to normal. It's significantly overpriced due to the location.