For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[coolchange]

Fish Tail Seafood Grill & Poke

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www.fishtailgrill.com

Great Food, understandably not cheap but great food.

I’ve eaten there…

 

[c_land]

Mortgage rates have come down in a hurry in the last week with the bond market rally and powell's neutral rate comments post FOMC.

 

[hallett21]

Mortgage rates have come down in a hurry in the last week with the bond market rally and powell's neutral rate comments post FOMC.

View attachment 1142362

Interesting how the 5/1 ARM is higher than the fixed rate.

 

[MSum661]

Mortgage rates have come down in a hurry in the last week with the bond market rally and powell's neutral rate comments post FOMC.

View attachment 1142362

And....at the same time Gasoline futures have reversed back down to a level not seen since Feb. 2022.
Indicative of rapid demand destruction. Crazy times!

 

[Gonefishin5555]

$4.95 for 87 at fountain valley costco this morning. No line either I pulled right up to an empty pump.

The mortgage rate thing I feel that the reason rates are 5% is because investors are happy to get a 5% return. I don't think anyone feels good about stock valuations so bonds it is.

 

[2FORCEFULL]

wow....1305 replies.... thie guy should get a free shirt and hat...

 

[2FORCEFULL]

using $2500 as a monthly budget.... only 10% of cal home are at that price.... where as texas....70% so looks like texas will be called so-tex shortly

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Interesting how the 5/1 ARM is higher than the fixed rate.

Investor appetite. Always happens in a dropping rate environment due to pre pay speeds.

Quoted a couple sub 5% 30 years today and my FHA buyers who pulled out of a deal 3rd week of July are back under contact for another property and rate dropped almost a full point. They are stoked!!

What some need to realize is the bond movement is due to very tepid economic data and fears of the recession are what cause the flock to safety. Also, the EU is a mess so a lot of money flowing into USA because we are still the best investment. If the employment data is bad this week, expect a further drop. Weak ISM fueled a continuation of the rally today. I should have a few refinance candidates by October if we stay the course. I think a 3.75% - 4.75% rate range is perfect and healthy for the market.

 

[shintoooo]

 

[CarolynandBob]

Interesting how the 5/1 ARM is higher than the fixed rate.

I am surprised the 30 yr jumbo is cheaper than 30 yr conventional.

 

[CLdrinker]

Have to admit this is quite the plot twist.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Rally in bonds still going, overnight. Looks like another good day for mortgage rates.

According to all the financial experts we should be at 7% rates right now after the last FED hike........

 

[RVR SWPR]

Well,the morons managed to take out Trump 11/3/20. Seems these same morons might not be able to take out the millions of Trump supporters and his way of getting doing business. Doing business what Trump all about 365/24/7.
Prime example of this whole mess,United States was exporting Oil.

 

[Englewood]

Interesting stats...

Less foreclosures than 2008-2020 (Jan-June). Almost 3x more than 2021.

Some layoffs starting. Buyers still buying...Weird times for sure. I'm gonna stick by my guess that we only give back COVID gains.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Interesting stats...

Less foreclosures than 2008-2020 (Jan-June). Almost 3x more than 2021.

Some layoffs starting. Buyers still buying...Weird times for sure. I'm gonna stick by my guess that we only give back COVID gains.
View attachment 1142658

I’m with you.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Well looks like a lot of the bond market gains have been given up today thanks to Evans..........why can't these idiots just shut up!!!

 

[Bpracing1127]

Interesting stats...

Less foreclosures than 2008-2020 (Jan-June). Almost 3x more than 2021.

Some layoffs starting. Buyers still buying...Weird times for sure. I'm gonna stick by my guess that we only give back COVID gains.
View attachment 1142658

Being in the market, I am good with giving back COVID gains 4/20 prices work for me

 

[Orange Juice]

Unfortunately I don’t sell anything people need, just things people want. When gas prices spike, my sales tank.

It’s much easier to sell things that people want, with low interest rates, but when it’s offset with a strong labor market, you have more potential buyers in your show room, or website.

The current problem is getting what you want, without paying 30% more than what you can afford.

I’m still trying to wrap my head around buying a new Dodge Charger GT, and after taxes, the bottom line was just short of $50k.Then happy you found something close to what you were looking for, after a 5 month search.

 

[Orange Juice]

Im not sure what the fall out of the leveraged crypto will be. It could be substantial, not sure.

After all the shake out is done we will all learn the lessons of this period just like we did in 2010

The crypto investors are those who sold their home in 2020 at the peak

 

[Havasu blue label]

You still worried about rates

 

[c_land]

Median New Home Prices are down ~12% April to June. It will be interesting to see if Case/Shiller shows a similar drop when it is released for that time period.

15 Year Chart, looks like the largest 2 month drop in that timeframe.

And all-time for reference

 

[Danger Dave]

Meanwhile in Portland.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1553848923390894080

 

[Havasu blue label]

There every bud old news

 

[bonesfab]

Meanwhile in Portland.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1553848923390894080

Seller needs to go buy a gun or some gasoline. One way or the other the squatters won't be there any longer.

 

[grumpy88]

Seller needs to go buy a gun or some gasoline. One way or the other the squatters won't be there any longer.

Donate it to the Hells Angeles ! They could use it as a new club house

 

[Roosky01]

Oracle reportedly undergoing mass layoffs

Workers in the Bay Area are reportedly affected, though details are vague.

www.sfgate.com

 

[nameisbond]

Prices haven't come down here yet. But sales are down and listings are up: https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/fin...A10gIHK?cvid=752f7a821c764d9ab8e1c0bedcd20ef0 I'll shop in Oct. I expect a stock market crash then too!

 

[havasujeeper]

According to Zillow (I know, not the best analyzer), my estimated home appraisal went down $36K in just one month. Yep, things are definitely going down.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

OC house is down 100K in about 60 days and river house in bhc holding steady. The OC house price seems a lot more volatile in zillow as there are listings in my city that indicates my value should fall another 100K so by September that is what I expect to happen,

 

[pronstar]

Consumer spending and the Wilshire 5000 track very closely.

Inflation won’t come down until people slow spending.

The market will be going down.
The Fed won’t stop meddling until it does.

We’re barely into the corrections needed to counteract Covid response and stimmy checks.

 

[HB2Havasu]

OC house is down 100K in about 60 days and river house in bhc holding steady. The OC house price seems a lot more volatile in zillow as there are listings in my city that indicates my value should fall another 100K so by September that is what I expect to happen,

Probably has a lot to do where yore located in OC ? My area down here by the beach hasn't budged if anything it's still going up. The last 3 buyers in my neighborhood over the last 60 days have all been cash transactions from asian buyers. Interest rates have no bearing when yore buyers are all cash

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Consumer spending and the Wilshire 5000 track very closely.

Inflation won’t come down until people slow spending.

The market will be going down.
The Fed won’t stop meddling until it does.

We’re barely into the corrections needed to counteract Covid response and stimmy checks.

This.. Maybe we are at the top of the 2nd inning.

 

[Gonefishin5555]

Probably has a lot to do where yore located in OC ? My area down here by the beach hasn't budged if anything it's still going up. The last 3 buyers in my neighborhood over the last 60 days have all been cash transactions from asian buyers. Interest rates have no bearing when yore buyers are all cash

Zillow must not like me. I'm in FV where they have plenty of interest from Asian cash buyers. Someone paid 2.4M for a house my size in late June. A couple listings nearby right now at 1.699 and 1.995 but my house shows as 1.53

 

[HB2Havasu]

Zillow must not like me. I'm in FV where they have plenty of interest from Asian cash buyers. Someone paid 2.4M for a house my size in late June. A couple listings nearby right now at 1.699 and 1.995 but my house shows as 1.53

I wouldn't put a lot of credence into zillow for factual values. It shows my home at $200K less than my next door neighbors house which is 120sf smaller than ours.

 

[nameisbond]

Hope Vancouver follows Toronto: https://financialpost.com/real-esta...lip-further-as-sales-plunge-47-from-last-year Need prices here to correct because I need to buy soon. Rents are going up because few are buying. My landlord wants to raise my rent $2,500 and at the new price might as well buy a nicer house with a pool.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I wouldn't put a lot of credence into zillow for factual values. It shows my home at $200K less than my next door neighbors house which is 120sf smaller than ours.

Agreed. The Zillow algorithms aren’t set up for the type of market swing we have seen in the last 90 days.

 

[Racey]

Meanwhile in Portland.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1553848923390894080

"Some great investment opportunities" -LOF

 

[Havasu blue label]

Mgm just laid off 1000 workers la

 

[hallett21]

"Some great investment opportunities" -LOF

I mean….. sprinklers??? Camping fire? Could be a deal lol

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Non Farm Payrolls just crushed it. Unemployment rate dropped to 3.5% and jobs created were +528k vs +250k (forecast)

Basically NFP just said "what recession"......

 

[DWC]

Consumer spending and the Wilshire 5000 track very closely.

Inflation won’t come down until people slow spending.

The market will be going down.
The Fed won’t stop meddling until it does.

We’re barely into the corrections needed to counteract Covid response and stimmy checks.

To make things more interesting CA is dropping another slug of $$$ in Oct. This will add some fuel to the predicted 15% inflation peak in Oct.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

To make things more interesting CA is dropping another slug of $$$ in Oct. This will add some fuel to the predicted 15% inflation peak in Oct.

View attachment 1143391

The CA money is coming from the surplus, not printing any new money. Doesn't help with the demand pull inflation, that's for sure.

 

[DWC]

The CA money is coming from the surplus, not printing any new money. Doesn't help with the demand pull inflation, that's for sure.

How much of the surplus was from the original printed money? Fed handouts directly to the state, additional tax revenue from sales and property tax. I’d say most of it. They’re just gonna keep the cycle going.

 

[COCA COLA COWBOY]

Non Farm Payrolls just crushed it. Unemployment rate dropped to 3.5% and jobs created were +528k vs +250k (forecast)

Basically NFP just said "what recession"......

You know that just means that we should expect more rate hikes in the future right? The markets went from expecting 1.00 this year to expecting 1.25 this year. However, for you the rates are not directly related to your loan interest rates.

I will say, I have a couple very aggressively priced listings and it's very slow. Marketing dollars towards listings does not return what it used to by any means. Marketing dollars for buyers has an extremely low return at the moment.

I spoke to an economists and he stated to expect the decline to last until Summer of 2023. After that, the market may still decline, but very minimally and should not affect the buyer pool much and to expect a much higher entry of new buyers.

 

[pronstar]

Lagging indicators are the fed’s biggest problem here…but they have to react to headlines.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Thank you

 

[MSum661]

You know that just means that we should expect more rate hikes in the future right? The markets went from expecting 1.00 this year to expecting 1.25 this year. However, for you the rates are not directly related to your loan interest rates.

I will say, I have a couple very aggressively priced listings and it's very slow. Marketing dollars towards listings does not return what it used to by any means. Marketing dollars for buyers has an extremely low return at the moment.

I spoke to an economists and he stated to expect the decline to last until Summer of 2023. After that, the market may still decline, but very minimally and should not affect the buyer pool much and to expect a much higher entry of new buyers.

Yup, the probability has spiked today that we see 125bps of tightening by November.

 

[MSum661]

Lagging indicators are the fed’s biggest problem here…but they have to react to headlines.

Yup, payrolls is one of the lowest quality macro data points.
It's also the most revised data and......super lagging.

 

[COCA COLA COWBOY]

Zillow must not like me. I'm in FV where they have plenty of interest from Asian cash buyers. Someone paid 2.4M for a house my size in late June. A couple listings nearby right now at 1.699 and 1.995 but my house shows as 1.53

You can't go by Zillow. Zillow uses an algorithm to determine value. They adjust that algorithm to get more interest from buyers. Zillow makes money by selling the data (buyer's contact information) to realtors to create revenue. Zillow adjusts that algorithm to create the interest needed to get the buyer's contact information for the realtors. The contracts they have with realtors guarantee providing the realtors with a a certain amount of contacts per month. By showing low numbers, they will have more interested buyers so they can meet their goals. Zillow and Realtor.com have been calling nonstop as many realtors have cancelled their contracts with Zillow as the buyer's just aren't there right now.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

$4.95 for 87 at fountain valley costco this morning. No line either I pulled right up to an empty pump.

The mortgage rate thing I feel that the reason rates are 5% is because investors are happy to get a 5% return. I don't think anyone feels good about stock valuations so bonds it is.

Investors are not happy at 5. The bond market is a mess with huge liquidity issues. Last year deals were printing with spreads less than one and excess spreads between the loan coupons within securitizations and the bond coupons were in the 4s. Meaning that the loans were spinning off 3 points more interest than was due on the debt.

Today it's the inverse spreads are 250 and the excess coupon spread in the deals is below 1. Meaning that the interest from the loans within the deal barely covers the debt.

The highest resi non-qm coupon deal to print this year so far had a collateral coupon of 6.6 a AAA bond coupon of 5.58 and spreads on that were still 200. If a 6.6 deal is still pricing in the 200s and excess spread is still below 2 points we have not found the rate ceiling yet. There will be a 7.5 deal printed soon and I am curious to see what spreads will look like at that point.

Prepayments or cpr (refinances and sales) on the securitized collateral (mortgages within the security) allow for the bond debt to be paid down faster reducing the total debt and the weighted average life of the bond. These deals are still being modeled with a 20 to 30% cpr by the rating agencies and which is laughable considering 99% of the mortgages in the market are below 5.3%.

Cdr which is the default rate of the securitized collateral is still being modeled under 0.5% of the securitized collateral which is a travesty.

Lower than modeled cpr (longer duration) and higher than modeled cdr (more default) is going to destroy the bond market and absolutely crush liquidity. Almost every deal printed this year will default on non-qm. Prime jumbo is probably in the same boat.

The excess coupon spread doesn't include fees which typically run another 30-50 basis points. Meaning that any movement in cpr/cdr is going to be deadly.

This has caused massive liquidity issues on the market a typical non-qm securitization will sell 3 tranches of A rated bonds, one mezzanine bond and 2-3 b rated bonds. In today's market sellers are lucky to get all 3 of the A's sold.

The writing is on the wall and the market is starting to anticipate the turn. Indexes are popping up to short mortgage bonds. These don't exist when things are good.