For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[Done-it-again]

Fake it till ya make it

Isn't that with most business's these days... No one knows shit about they do/sell, and it's getting worse as the old timers are getting out.

 

[Orange Juice]

Isn't that with most business's these days... No one knows shit about they do/sell, and it's getting worse as the old timers are getting out.

It’s gotten very complicated. My nightmare is getting parts in a reasonable amount of time. I have service calls open 2 years waiting on parts. They would replace the system, but we’re back logged 2 years because of parts.

I’ve become very talented with turning shit into something that might work of a while.

 

[hallett21]

Isn't that with most business's these days... No one knows shit about they do/sell, and it's getting worse as the old timers are getting out.

My best friend is an absolute killer in his industry. He knows Jack squat about tech stuff lol. But what he does know is people and numbers.

Part of me says he faked it until he made it, the other half says that he knows how to handle people and didn’t let the “tech/trade” stuff get in his way.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

My best friend is an absolute killer in his industry. He knows Jack squat about tech stuff lol. But what he does know is people and numbers.

Part of me says he faked it until he made it, the other half says that he knows how to handle people and didn’t let the “tech/trade” stuff get in his way.

I know sales people like that. They go from vertical to vertical. They don’t need to know the tech, they know how to read a room, sell value, and fail fast.

 

[77charger]

You just described the self inflicted problem. You don’t “need” a remodel every 10 years. You’ve just been conditioned to want one.

Agree with that. I did showerpans in many homes. I can tell you there have been a few that I have done twice because they wanted something new again. Heck one home I did was a flip it sold and within 6 months I was back in it as new owners wanted their own touch.

Same for tract work I have done couple years later your back in same home.

 

[Orange Juice]

Typical new construction in Phoenix right now.
No driveway,
half the house is above the garage.
You share a common wall with your neighbor.
Gated community with club pool area.
HOA’s
No pickups, unless they fit in the garage.
No yardwork

17042 N 50th Way, Scottsdale, AZ 85254 | Zillow

17042 N 50th Way, Scottsdale AZ, is a Townhouse home that contains 2149 sq ft and was built in 2023.It contains 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms.This home last sold for $629,990 in February 2024. The Zestimate for this Townhouse is $633,000, which has decreased by $5,358 in the last 30 days.The Rent...

www.zillow.com

 

[HTMike]

^^^^^^^^

That looks like an open air prison ! LOL. They weren't lying when they said you will own nothing and be happy. Even if you do own something you sure as hell wont feel like you do.

 

[bonesfab]

Typical new construction in Phoenix right now.
No driveway,
half the house is above the garage.
You share a common wall with your neighbor.
Gated community with club pool area.
HOA’s
No pickups, unless they fit in the garage.
No yardwork

17042 N 50th Way, Scottsdale, AZ 85254 | Zillow

17042 N 50th Way, Scottsdale AZ, is a Townhouse home that contains 2149 sq ft and was built in 2023.It contains 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms.This home last sold for $629,990 in February 2024. The Zestimate for this Townhouse is $633,000, which has decreased by $5,358 in the last 30 days.The Rent...

www.zillow.com

I guess snobsdale isn't any cheaper than California now. wow. and you can keep the heat.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I guess snobsdake isn't any cheaper than California now. wow. and you can keep the heat.

Phoenix is a suburb of Corona.

 

[Kurt96]

Typical new construction in Phoenix right now.
No driveway,
half the house is above the garage.
You share a common wall with your neighbor.
Gated community with club pool area.
HOA’s
No pickups, unless they fit in the garage.
No yardwork

17042 N 50th Way, Scottsdale, AZ 85254 | Zillow

17042 N 50th Way, Scottsdale AZ, is a Townhouse home that contains 2149 sq ft and was built in 2023.It contains 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms.This home last sold for $629,990 in February 2024. The Zestimate for this Townhouse is $633,000, which has decreased by $5,358 in the last 30 days.The Rent...

www.zillow.com

Sadly that’s what people want today. The townhouse boom in Phoenix is just beginning. I started my career in Seattle, and our office designed 3-4 townhome buildings a week. People were paying $850k for a single unit, and they were selling fast. One parking spot, no garage, tiny shared driveway, etc. But they were close to downtown and that’s all that mattered. I’m in Phoenix now, and the infill is just beginning. More developers are buying single family homes in high rent areas and putting 4 units on the lot. And the same type of people buying these up in Seattle are down here as well. Only here they will be renting them…

 

[Boatymcboatface]

I don’t think I could share a wall again. Every apartment I lived in I took a top floor over bottom floor! The single story apartment I lived in had nobody above it. The wall I shared my living room was against two of the neighbors bedroom wall and had my TV up against it. No way I could be the one on the other side of that wall!!


No idea AZ was that expensive now! I’ll be in Phoenix for a week at the end of the month so maybe I’ll get to see what the hell makes it so expensive!

 

[hallett21]

Typical new construction in Phoenix right now.
No driveway,
half the house is above the garage.
You share a common wall with your neighbor.
Gated community with club pool area.
HOA’s
No pickups, unless they fit in the garage.
No yardwork

17042 N 50th Way, Scottsdale, AZ 85254 | Zillow

17042 N 50th Way, Scottsdale AZ, is a Townhouse home that contains 2149 sq ft and was built in 2023.It contains 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms.This home last sold for $629,990 in February 2024. The Zestimate for this Townhouse is $633,000, which has decreased by $5,358 in the last 30 days.The Rent...

www.zillow.com

That’s a million in Westlake Village CA, and it’ll be a 1980s build. So not a terrible deal all things considered.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

That’s a million in Westlake Village CA, and it’ll be a 1980s build. So not a terrible deal all things considered.

Location is still a thing in Real Estate lol

 

[hallett21]

Location is still a thing in Real Estate lol

Lol I guess I was just thinking of how a lot of AZ, NV, UT etc properties no longer seem like a deal. I always thought Scottsdale was the Grey Poupon of Phoenix? Maybe not? Lol.

 

[shintoooo]

That’s a million in Westlake Village CA, and it’ll be a 1980s build. So not a terrible deal all things considered.

Yep

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/...ssage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/...ssage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Lol I guess I was just thinking of how a lot of AZ, NV, UT etc properties no longer seem like a deal. I always thought Scottsdale was the Grey Poupon of Phoenix? Maybe not? Lol.

You are spot on. And Phoenix is a suburb of Corona.. and priced accordingly. That isn’t a dig on Phoenix, you dollar goes further there.

Just not as far as it used to.

That’s about what my old 900 sqft condo in South OC is worth today, and it was built 25 years ago. This is double the size and double the garage.

And my UT house that is 1000 sq ft bigger on 1/3 acre cost less than that. Nuts. And the people that have lived here more than 5 years think I’m nuts for buying it

 

[Boatymcboatface]

Yep

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/...ssage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare View attachment 1322076

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/...ssage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare

View attachment 1322074

$750 HOA that never goes down I’m sure.

 

[Bowtiepower00]

While I agree prices have gone crazy in the Phoenix metro since 2019 or so, $630 for that place is paying for a Scottsdale ZIP.

You can find some nice RV Garage homes for 700ish if you’re willing to live an hour from downtown. There are several for sale in my neighborhood (NW valley) as I’m writing this.

If you want an RV Garage home on an acre with No HOA, you’re going to be getting closer to 800-1M, unless you’re willing to live an hour and a half+ from downtown.

In these same areas, figure 500-750 for a nice place if you don’t need an RV Garage.

That being said, prices are easily double what they were 5-7 years ago.

 

[kurtis500]

Typical new construction in Phoenix right now.
No driveway,
half the house is above the garage.
You share a common wall with your neighbor.
Gated community with club pool area.
HOA’s
No pickups, unless they fit in the garage.
No yardwork

17042 N 50th Way, Scottsdale, AZ 85254 | Zillow

17042 N 50th Way, Scottsdale AZ, is a Townhouse home that contains 2149 sq ft and was built in 2023.It contains 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms.This home last sold for $629,990 in February 2024. The Zestimate for this Townhouse is $633,000, which has decreased by $5,358 in the last 30 days.The Rent...

www.zillow.com

Sad to see that kind of construction up there. The public schools are decent and theres a lot of great private school options. The area is pretty good but that house would be so difficult to live in. Maybe a snowbird house at best. Down in central Phoenix they are constantly putting up huge 250-350 unit apartments everywhere. Its like driving through a canyon at 16st and Highland and Central and Indian School. It looks horrible and they wont increase city services to accomodate the influx.

Like LA, stay far away from the city center to make it affordable. Unless you got the $$ for a house and RV garage in North Central, Arcadia, PV etc. then its fine going way out. Its closer to the lakes also. Id go east towards the Salt River lakes.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Location is still a thing in Real Estate lol

Yes it is

 

[hallett21]

Daniel Madariaga on Instagram: "With 2,101,640 views across all my social media platforms, here is my 3rd most-watched video of 2023! This was about the cheapest house sold in LA during one week in March of this year. #repost . . ."

49K likes, 893 comments - daniellosangeles on December 27, 2023: "With 2,101,640 views across all my social media platforms, here is my 3rd most-watched video of 2..."

www.instagram.com

 

[angiebaby]

Typical new construction in Phoenix right now.
No driveway,
half the house is above the garage.
You share a common wall with your neighbor.
Gated community with club pool area.
HOA’s
No pickups, unless they fit in the garage.
No yardwork

17042 N 50th Way, Scottsdale, AZ 85254 | Zillow

17042 N 50th Way, Scottsdale AZ, is a Townhouse home that contains 2149 sq ft and was built in 2023.It contains 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms.This home last sold for $629,990 in February 2024. The Zestimate for this Townhouse is $633,000, which has decreased by $5,358 in the last 30 days.The Rent...

www.zillow.com

My sister-in-law bought something exactly like that in Chandler. The back yard is seriously about 8' x 30'.

 

[2Driver]

Typical new construction in Phoenix right now.
No driveway,
half the house is above the garage.
You share a common wall with your neighbor.
Gated community with club pool area.
HOA’s
No pickups, unless they fit in the garage.
No yardwork

17042 N 50th Way, Scottsdale, AZ 85254 | Zillow

17042 N 50th Way, Scottsdale AZ, is a Townhouse home that contains 2149 sq ft and was built in 2023.It contains 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms.This home last sold for $629,990 in February 2024. The Zestimate for this Townhouse is $633,000, which has decreased by $5,358 in the last 30 days.The Rent...

www.zillow.com

LOL nice yard. Probably works for a pilot or doctor that works mega hours. Still better than an apartment cube IMO It does have nice central amenities.

 

[zhandfull]

As the cost of water, gas, electric, and taxes continuing to go up. Maybe smaller is better for homes and lots.

I do remember the shared wall of my first townhouse apartment though. Both side of wall had stairs to second story. Holly shit, sounded like the F’ing neighbor kids were running up my stairs. Noisy neighbors was why I broke the lease and bought a house.

 

[zhandfull]

Was browsing the sold section of Zillow. Lot of price reductions on recently sold properties.
This one caught my attention only because it was listed a month before this thread started for 1.1m. Just sold for under 800k. Nice house and garage!

 

[Orange Juice]

What happened in 2017-2018 that caused housing prices to spike?
This maybe a coincidence, but timing says it might be the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) 2017. We all lost our property tax deduction, and the business world capitalized on consumer weakness, and out bid everyone.

If it's too good to be true, it probably is.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Was browsing the sold section of Zillow. Lot of price reductions on recently sold properties.
This one caught my attention only because it was listed a month before this thread started for 1.1m. Just sold for under 800k. Nice house and garage!
View attachment 1323395

That house didn’t sell for $1m because it was always a $800k house.

No one is serious about selling if it takes them 19 months to sell a regular house in Havasu with an RV garage. That is a fishing expedition .

 

[Cdog]

 

[hallett21]

Looks like rates are at 6.75% ish today.

I wonder what number will instill confidence in buyers. I’m thinking anything in the 5s will get everyone diving back in.

Also high 5s would let them raise it back after the election “relatively” smoothly.

 

[hallett21]

Interesting to see how buying power opens up per 1% drop. Last one shows the extra 120k you could borrow at 4.75% vs 6.75%.

 

[HTMike]

Are people really doing 30 year loans ? Its all interest the first 10 years damn near Lmao

 

[attitude]

Are people really doing 30 year loans ? Its all interest the first 10 years damn near Lmao

Not RDP’rs, everyone here pays cash!

 

[hallett21]

Are people really doing 30 year loans ? Its all interest the first 10 years damn near Lmao

I think you have to buy it but here’s roughly a 20 year term. Bankrate etc saying 5.5-5.75 but with fees (10-13k). I’m sure a broker could get those numbers down though.

For only $200 extra a month (assuming you don’t have to come out of pocket much) that’s not a bad way to go in comparison to a 30 year at 6.75%.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Are people really doing 30 year loans ? Its all interest the first 10 years damn near Lmao

Yes.

 

[Englewood]

Are people really doing 30 year loans ? Its all interest the first 10 years damn near Lmao

Almost every single home buyer. What is the alternative?

 

[Flatsix66]

The interest spread between the 20 and 30 year loans makes an interesting case. Just cut out the Starbucks for ten years and you could have a bunch more equity.
For the 30 year after 10 Years you would have $75k of equity (assuming no 0% gain in value)

For the 20 Year After 10 Years you would have $200k of equity.

 

[HTMike]

Almost every single home buyer. What is the alternative?

A 15 year. 30 is crazy.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

A 15 year. 30 is crazy.

When your house has more than doubled in value in 10 years, no one cares. They want to lowest payment possible.

Especially when from 2010 to 2022 the money could easily outperform the extra interest in nearly any market you put it in.

 

[HTMike]

The interest spread between the 20 and 30 year loans makes an interesting case. Just cut out the Starbucks for ten years and you could have a bunch more equity.
For the 30 year after 10 Years you would have $75k of equity (assuming no 0% gain in value)

View attachment 1323576

For the 20 Year After 10 Years you would have $200k of equity.

View attachment 1323558

An extra $200 a month saves you 342K in interest.. WOW.

 

[BHC Vic]

Let’s say you owe around 380k for your home. You get a million dollars. Would you pay off the house a remodel bathrooms and kitchens and make it everything you want or invest the money somewhere else. Maybe remodel but don’t pay it off. What are everyone’s thoughts on this? I think we could pat off the house and Remodel and still have extra but this is more just for conversation and ideas

 

[HTMike]

When your house has more than doubled in value in 10 years, no one cares. They want to lowest payment possible.

Especially when from 2010 to 2022 the money could easily outperform the extra interest in nearly any market you put it in.

Doing a 20 year loan, you'll pay $48,000 to save $300k in interest over the course of the loan. I would bet most people stretching payments aren't savvy investors. LOL

 

[zhandfull]

Let’s say you owe around 380k for your home. You get a million dollars. Would you pay off the house a remodel bathrooms and kitchens and make it everything you want or invest the money somewhere else. Maybe remodel but don’t pay it off. What are everyone’s thoughts on this? I think we could pat off the house and Remodel and still have extra but this is more just for conversation and ideas

Not if you have an interest rate near 3%.
You keep that cheap money.

 

[BHC Vic]

Not if you have an interest rate near 3%.

2.8 but that’s what I’ve heard and it confuses me. Could you explain why if you have some time? I’m not being a smart ass this is a pretty real scenario so I’m really trying to educate myself

 

[HTMike]

Let’s say you owe around 380k for your home. You get a million dollars. Would you pay off the house a remodel bathrooms and kitchens and make it everything you want or invest the money somewhere else. Maybe remodel but don’t pay it off. What are everyone’s thoughts on this? I think we could pat off the house and Remodel and still have extra but this is more just for conversation and ideas

Depends on a lot of factors ( your age, how good you are at actually investing, how much you have saved for retirement, etc ) but " I " would pay it off and then invest the remainder.

Most people who say keep the loan and invest would likely do a high end re model then " invest " the remaining money into toys and vacations. LOL

 

[ChumpChange]

2.8 but that’s what I’ve heard and it confuses me. Could you explain why if you have some time? I’m not being a smart ass this is a pretty real scenario so I’m really trying to educate myself

Because you could take that same money and put it in a very secure interest-bearing item and make over 5%. Now the interest you are getting is covering not only the interest but a portion of the principal on your mortgage.

 

[BHC Vic]

Because you could take that same money and put it in a very secure interest-bearing item and make over 5%. Now the interest you are getting is covering not only the interest but a portion of the principal on your mortgage.

Ok that makes sense. Is this a conversation I would have with my tax guy? Maybe he’ll read this I know this shows my ignorance but it is what it is

 

[ChumpChange]

2.8 but that’s what I’ve heard and it confuses me. Could you explain why if you have some time? I’m not being a smart ass this is a pretty real scenario so I’m really trying to educate myself

So a $380,000 mortgage at 2.8% has a payment of $1,561 which is principal and interest.

Putting $380,000 in a bank CD at 5% and you’re making $1,583 per month. So you’re actually netting about $20 in cash flow per month.

The bank CD is paying both the principal and your interest. If you took that same $380,000 and paid off your mortgage, you have nothing. This goes up and down according to scale.

 

[HTMike]

Because you could take that same money and put it in a very secure interest-bearing item and make over 5%. Now the interest you are getting is covering not only the interest but a portion of the principal on your mortgage.

But you pay taxes on those 5% gains which ends up equating to your mortgage interest. I will add as something similar happened to me, I paid all my debt off including the house. The feeling you get from a no debt lifestyle is something that cant be explained and also something nobody ever puts a price on because so few actually do it. I sleep like a baby every night and am completely immune to economic downturns. That to me alone is worth the price of admission.

 

[BHC Vic]

Also on the flip side. What if I were to take the money I would be making in payments and invest that. Not a lump sum so not the same I guess?

 

[ChumpChange]

Ok that makes sense. Is this a conversation I would have with my tax guy? Maybe he’ll read this I know this shows my ignorance but it is what it is

Have it with a financial planner. Or just give me a call. I like to talk. And I got nothing to sell you. Just like to help and spread knowledge.