For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[mjc]

I know someone that owns a restaurant here in Havasu and wanted a couple of his employees to bump up from 20 hrs. a week to 30+ hrs a week, both ended up leaving because they would end up losing EBT benefits. How do you compete with free money? How does anybody ever get ahead in life with that work ethic? These employees are in their mid/late twenties. They are probably the turds that complain about no affordable housing in Havasu for the "workers".

There is a new resturant down on Swanson(the old mudshark) that is for sale. Never opened because they couldn't find any empolyees.

 

[attitude]

The number of people working today is more than it was in early 2019 and within a few hundred thousand people to what it was at its peak in 2019.

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Unless thousands of businesses opened instead of closed during COVID those numbers aren’t matching what everyone in the US is witnessing.

 

[Nanu/Nanu]

I wish everyone the best regardless of your strategy. I was fortunate enough to build 4 years ago and am probably sitting at or near 100% equity to my home value. Wife and I tossed around selling if we could have found a piece of property for a decent value close to where we are now. The thing we couldn't stomach was paying more for rent than our current mortgage payment for less house and lot than we currently had without decent estimate on wait time on when things would stabilize. Personally I think it's still a good market if you can sell high and pay down a huge chunk so the interest rate doesn't hurt you. So we missed the moment not a big deal we have a 100% useable lot and plenty of room to grow in a nice quiet neighborhood with a mortgage we can manage and have a means to afford to do our fun things we like to do. I'm a simpleton and can't wrap my head a lot of facts and data posted on here it's like reading Chinese. So far though we have fared pretty well. like I said Earlier though I hope those that are looking to get further a head kill it and those looking for more financial stability are able to be more comfortable.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I don’t remember 200 duplexes they would be in my book

I guess you weren't looking then?

 

[PaPaG]

Serious question. Where are all the workers? How are so many people able to sit at home and not work all of the sudden?

That is the Million Dollar Question, where the heck are they getting the monthly cash to not only survive but to live comfortably. There are MILLIONS of able body workers out there sitting on the sidelines that is fact, like I said earlier job stats say 38% of the able body work force is just sitting idling by, how I have no clue...so many just stopped wanting to work..

 

[PaPaG]

And his timeline for the drop was 90 days almost a month ago.

is that anything like your timeline for the speed car? lol

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

is that anything like your timeline for the speed car? lol

I should have a car by then, yes.

Only difference is the price of those has gone up 30% and even more next week.

 

[PaPaG]

I should have a car by then, yes.

Only difference is the price of those has gone up 30% and even more next week.

LOL....I bought an idea once as well a few decades ago, when it finally came out everyone else had surpassed it....

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

LOL....I bought an idea once as well a few decades ago, when it finally came out everyone else had surpassed it....

I know, those 7.3 Powerstrokes are turds.

This isn’t that.

 

[PaPaG]

I know, those 7.3 Powerstrokes are turds.

This isn’t that.

Funny that the turd 7.3 are actually in existence and get huge dollars. lol Lets see your speed car(s)? Its OK I will wait til 2025 then you can post yours.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Funny that the turd 7.3 are actually in existence and get huge dollars. lol Lets see your speed car(s)? Its OK I will wait til 2025 then you can post yours.

You are in a thread you created talking about the sky falling on the RE market and economy in general, yet think the market for 20+ year old overpriced and underpowered trucks won’t also be taken out in the process?

Just take a breath and let it go.

 

[PaPaG]

You are in a thread you created talking about the sky falling on the RE market and economy in general, yet think the market for 20+ year old overpriced and underpowered trucks won’t also be taken out in the process?

Just take a breath and let it go.

My Post, you can stay away and all will be fine. Stick to your speed car cheerleading and leave the educated folks to talk about actual investments and the market.

 

[hallett21]

You are in a thread you created talking about the sky falling on the RE market and economy in general, yet think the market for 20+ year old overpriced and underpowered trucks won’t also be taken out in the process?

Just take a breath and let it go.

Fuck you. 7.3s and schiadas never lose value

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

My Post, you can stay away and all will be fine. Stick to your speed car cheerleading and leave the educated folks to talk about actual investments and the market.

Oh is that what this thread is? Seems like a bunch of professional and perpetual on lookers.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Fuck you. 7.3s and schiadas never lose value

I heard they built a single Schiada with a 7.3. Chuck Norris owns it and it’s still too slow to leave the garage on its quad axle trailer.

 

[PaPaG]

I heard they built a single Schiada with a 7.3. Chuck Norris owns it and it’s still too slow to leave the garage on its quad axle trailer.

You make no sense when you get butt hurt about your speed cars......back to business in a adult thread with folks that understand business and investments not daydreams and fairy tails.

 

[530RL]

Unless thousands of businesses opened instead of closed during COVID those numbers aren’t matching what everyone in the US is witnessing.

I don't have any data on that?

I do know that GDP is higher than it was in 2019 pre-pandemic both nominally and real. Naturally it takes more people to do more stuff absent large increases in productivity so the workforce recovery as well as the almost doubling in open and unfilled jobs makes some back of the envelope sense. Also helps explain some of the shortages and the long wait times to get stuff done.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

You make no sense when you get butt hurt about your speed cars......back to business in a adult thread with folks that understand business and investments not daydreams and fairy tails.

You seem to be the one that cares more about when I get the car than I do.

Back to spectating and unfounded predictions on the RE markets!

 

[PaPaG]

You seem to be the one that cares more about when I get the car than I do.

Back to spectating and unfounded predictions on the RE markets!

I could care less about your imaginary speed car.....How ever, I can tell by your savy investment comments you know a lot about investing and waiting, waiting, waiting and waiting for ?? oops and waiting. You obviously are an expert at everything according to your constant know it all posts, you have proven you KNOW NOTHING about the real estate market nor the stock market, you do however know how to be a know it all.... sit back and learn something about investing and market trends, you may avoid some losses in the future...or you can buy and wait, that seems to be your MO lol lol lol....

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I could care less about your imaginary speed car.....How ever, I can tell by your savy investment comments you know a lot about investing and waiting, waiting, waiting and waiting for ?? oops and waiting. You obviously are an expert at everything according to your constant know it all posts, you have proven you KNOW NOTHING about the real estate market nor the stock market, you do however know how to be a know it all.... sit back and learn something about investing and market trends, you may avoid some losses in the future...or you can buy and wait, that seems to be your MO lol lol lol....

So can I buy your house and the Ford 7.3 in the garage in 90 days for 50% less than today’s price? Or the price from 30 days ago?

Cash of course.

PS. For something you don’t care about you bring it up a lot .

PSS. It’s couldn’t. You couldn’t care less.

 

[EmpirE231]

Well inventory is definitely trending up, rates are definitely trending up, job losses trending up and we are in a recession!

That could only mean one thing on RDP.... things are looking good brah.... no chance of a dip.... maybe hold still you know... maybe just get back to 2020 prices.

 

[PaPaG]

Well inventory is definitely trending up, rates are definitely trending up, job losses trending up and we are in a recession!

That could only mean one thing on RDP.... things are looking good brah.... no chance of a dip.... maybe hold still you know... maybe just get back to 2020 prices.

So can I buy your house and the Ford 7.3 in the garage in 90 days for 50% less than today’s price? Or the price from 30 days ago?

Cash of course.

PS. For something you don’t care about you bring it up a lot .

Maybe if you get your speed car next month, oops the following month, oops next year, oops the following year, oops who knows when lol....I doubt you could afford my 7.3 or my house since all your money is in speed cars that are non existent but if you SELL some of your speed cars that are sitting in your garage you can give me a cash offer then we can talk lol...and my 7.3 in the garage will sell for 100% more than what I paid for it and will continue to get higher and higher unlike your imaginary Chinese speed cars...PS I only bring up speed cars when you troll my post......

 

[zhandfull]

I typically think of cash buyers as smart money. Only personally know one cash buyer. A true cash buyer, no loans! Would never know it by his 1998 Ford Ranger he drives around while doing some of the minor handy man type repairs on his own rentals. Pretty sure the tenants have no idea that he is the property owner and that’s just how he likes it. Keeps a close eye on things and is no slumlord.

The smart money has been mostly sitting on the sidelines for the last five years IMO. Market prices rolling back to 2019 is not enough to get them off the sidelines.

I watch YouTube videos on how to buy rentals with yields of 3 to 6 % on leveraged money and just laugh. Rents go down, missed rents, turn over, one little hiccup and these landlords will be toast unless they bought 10 years ago.

The cash buyer I know is looking for yields north of 15%. Yeah he hasn’t bought much of anything in last couple years. But he is well positioned to take advantage of great deals if presented.

 

[530RL]

Well inventory is definitely trending up, rates are definitely trending up, job losses trending up and we are in a recession!

That could only mean one thing on RDP.... things are looking good brah.... no chance of a dip.... maybe hold still you know... maybe just get back to 2020 prices.

But can we have a recession and keep a low unemployment rate? And is the recession a result of a fall in actual demand, or simply an inability to sustain or increase current GDP (supply) given the productive resources?

If the unemployment rate is simply a ratio, a percentage, basically it says nothing about the volume of labor that is required to support the current or desired level of GDP.

So, if there aren’t enough workers, is it possible to have slower aggregate GDP growth, no aggregate GDP growth, or even recession at the same time there is a low unemployment rate.

 

[MSum661]

That is the Million Dollar Question, where the heck are they getting the monthly cash to not only survive but to live comfortably. There are MILLIONS of able body workers out there sitting on the sidelines that is fact, like I said earlier job stats say 38% of the able body work force is just sitting idling by, how I have no clue...so many just stopped wanting to work..

Well if we take a quick look at the two comparisons of the current record high spike on consumer credit card debt from 2006 to the last read on 6/29/2022 and over to the huge drop in the personal savings rate read on 6/30/2022, (the lowest since 2009), it's fairly easy to see that people are maxing out their credit card, etc and at the same time nearly out of savings. My guess is they can't go much longer and zero free cashola is coming for the rescue this time around.

Also, keep in mind ex-employee's may have a slight grudge with employers right now due to the fact that 75% of the $800 Billion of the PPP (Paycheck Protection Progam) did not reach employees, but instead the benefits went to unintended recipients, including business owners, creditors and suppliers, rather than to workers.
Maybe all this complicates the desire to do very much.

Was the Paycheck Protection Program Effective?

The Paycheck Protection Program offered timely COVID-19 relief, but a new study found that most of its funds failed to reach the workers it was meant to help.

www.stlouisfed.org

 

[DrunkenSailor]

So how many “new” lenders opened up doing this boom? It was easy picking when the market is hot. Of course there will be shops closing up when it’s not easy $$$$.

I wonder how many “new” realtors came to be during the same time.

The two lenders who recently went Bk were first guarantee and sprout. First guarantee had been in business since 1987. Sprout was founded in 2016. The owner formerly helmed American home mortgage the 10th largest retail mortgage lender back in 2007. Same story different decade...

Any mortgage lender who doesn't have cash reserves and a willingness to burn through some of it, is going to be in a tough spot right now.

 

[Springfield]

I don’t remember 200 duplexes they would be in my book

It’s called Portfolio.

 

[GOTTBoat]

There is a new resturant down on Swanson(the old mudshark) that is for sale. Never opened because they couldn't find any empolyees.

Mid covid shutdowns before renovations were anywhere near complete I was told by a different restaurant owner there was no plan on opening again, going up for sale which surprised me.

 

[Havasu blue label]

I call it book I don’t handle my property mgmt I have a list of properties in my book as of today in havasu that have hard money loans out to other investors that want there money back . You will see numbers drop back to almost purchase price just to save there ass

 

[angiebaby]

That is the million dollar question.

Mad Madeline's in Old Town Temecula had to shut down on Sunday because they didn't have cooks.

That's pretty standard up here in the Intermountain West. If you're going out to eat Sun-Tues, you'd better verify the place is open first.

 

[Done-it-again]

The two lenders who recently went Bk were first guarantee and sprout. First guarantee had been in business since 1987. Sprout was founded in 2016. The owner formerly helmed American home mortgage the 10th largest retail mortgage lender back in 2007. Same story different decade...

Any mortgage lender who doesn't have cash reserves and a willingness to burn through some of it, is going to be in a tough spot right now.

It looks like Sprout was the 2nd "non QM lender" to go under.... We saw those same lender go during 08'

Will see what happens with first guarantee, chapter 11 is all restructuring and getting out from what you owe..

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

It looks like Sprout was the 2nd "non QM lender" to go under.... We saw those same lender go during 08'

Will see what happens with first guarantee, chapter 11 is all restructuring and getting out from what you owe..

Sprout deserved to go under. They are the absolute worst. If brokers would rather sacrifice their own children instead of send loans there, then you have a problem.

Also, I heard they had a no hedge policy which was their ultimate demise. Got margin called and finished.

 

[angiebaby]

PSS. It’s couldn’t. You couldn’t care less.

Thank you for doing it so I didn't have to, LOL.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Maybe if you get your speed car next month, oops the following month, oops next year, oops the following year, oops who knows when lol....I doubt you could afford my 7.3 or my house since all your money is in speed cars that are non existent but if you SELL some of your speed cars that are sitting in your garage you can give me a cash offer then we can talk lol...and my 7.3 in the garage will sell for 100% more than what I paid for it and will continue to get higher and higher unlike your imaginary Chinese speed cars...PS I only bring up speed cars when you troll my post......

If I gave you some money to put in your wallet would you be more or less concerned with my wallet?

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I typically think of cash buyers as smart money. Only personally know one cash buyer. A true cash buyer, no loans! Would never know it by his 1998 Ford Ranger he drives around while doing some of the minor handy man type repairs on his own rentals. Pretty sure the tenants have no idea that he is the property owner and that’s just how he likes it. Keeps a close eye on things and is no slumlord.

The smart money has been mostly sitting on the sidelines for the last five years IMO. Market prices rolling back to 2019 is not enough to get them off the sidelines.

I watch YouTube videos on how to buy rentals with yields of 3 to 6 % on leveraged money and just laugh. Rents go down, missed rents, turn over, one little hiccup and these landlords will be toast unless they bought 10 years ago.

The cash buyer I know is looking for yields north of 15%. Yeah he hasn’t bought much of anything in last couple years. But he is well positioned to take advantage of great deals if presented.

When and where do these people enter the market? They just wait for price corrections?

There is "smart money" making moves in every situation. Smart Money and Conservative Money are 2 different things. There is an opportunity cost of waiting that must also be factored in.

I've got a coworker who has bought 2 rentals in BHC since 2020 one is paid off already and another will be paid off in 6 months. I don't know how any of that is dumb. Sure he may own a house outright that is worth less than he paid for it, but that is a temporary situation, and he's making money on it in the meantime.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Well inventory is definitely trending up, rates are definitely trending up, job losses trending up and we are in a recession!

That could only mean one thing on RDP.... things are looking good brah.... no chance of a dip.... maybe hold still you know... maybe just get back to 2020 prices.

No according to RDP it actually means 2009 all over again, in just 90 days, yet the economy is still gaining jobs last of last month.

 

[monkeyswrench]

Jesus H. Christ on a pogo stick...

For a some reasonably bright individuals, some come off as bad as my wife's students...and they're 5.

Bring up a Speedcar, and it's like pulling an E-brake doing sixty in the rain.

 

[Heylam]

This thread is funny. No one really knows what is going to happen, yet they argue about what is going to happen. Comical.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

This thread is funny. No one really knows what is going to happen, yet they argue about what is going to happen. Comical.

I think the only reason there is even argument is because there is a sect of RDP that has been so entrenched in their position saying we are 18 months away from total economic failure since 2015. They are pot committed to complete economic doom and even the sniff of a down cycle has them calling for global financial annihilation. We are are literally tracking the slow down by individual job and home sale in Havasu.

 

[Danger Dave]

I really have nothing to add to this thread at this point, but feel I should be involved nonetheless.

 

[CarolynandBob]

Record low unemployment and a record high quit rate, say otherwise. Employment data is key here. Until job losses start to pile up in high paying positions, then you have a market that is simply going to normalize. Maybe we see a drop in prices but not a huge one. My question to all the "cash buyers", what are you waiting for?? Prices to go back to 2020 levels? How come you just didn't buy back then??

I saw it as over inflated. You could do very well in the stock market and make a move much quicker than if you were in RE.

 

[PaPaG]

If I gave you some money to put in your wallet would you be more or less concerned with my wallet?

You are resident RD know it all you should already know the answer lol

 

[240Hallett]

Jesus H. Christ on a pogo stick...

For a some reasonably bright individuals, some come off as bad as my wife's students...and they're 5.

Bring up a Speedcar, and it's like pulling an E-brake doing sixty in the rain.

By that you mean stupid and fun to watch?!


Not the kids…
The thread. And the E brake trick

 

[PaPaG]

No according to RDP it actually means 2009 all over again, in just 90 days, yet the economy is still gaining jobs last of last month.

I am guessing the speed car will be out by the end of 2021, oops 2022, maybe 2024 lol

 

[PaPaG]

Jesus H. Christ on a pogo stick...

For a some reasonably bright individuals, some come off as bad as my wife's students...and they're 5.

Bring up a Speedcar, and it's like pulling an E-brake doing sixty in the rain.

I just love seeing Mr. Know it all get butt hurt when ever someone speaks negatively about his so called speed car, lol....5, 4, 3, 2, 1? what no comment from Mr. Know it all Orange? lol it will happen soon....

 

[monkeyswrench]

By that you mean stupid and fun to watch?!


Not the kids…
The thread. And the E brake trick

Undecided on the thread...may need a shot or two while making dinner to decide.

I can tell you from previous experience, the E-brake thing is about like taking a stripper home. It's real fun, for a little bit. In the end, someone's wrapt around a pole, your wallet's empty and there may be blood!

 

[shintoooo]

Cash buyer here. Let’s see what you got.

 

[PaPaG]

I think the only reason there is even argument is because there is a sect of RDP that has been so entrenched in their position saying we are 18 months away from total economic failure since 2015. They are pot committed to complete economic doom and even the sniff of a down cycle has them calling for global financial annihilation. We are are literally tracking the slow down by individual job and home sale in Havasu.

If you truly believe this downturn is a Sniff of a down turn you just proved you have absolutely no knowledge or experience in the stock market or for that matter trending signs and our economy. You sound like Dumbledorf our president constantly saying ALL IS WELL ALL IS WELL even though the economic signs have shown decline for almost a year now and the market is in the shits, some just bury their heads in the sand and hope others believe their ill informed or uneducated opinions....

 

[BingerFang]

The Deal Is Off: Home Sales Are Getting Canceled at the Highest Rate Since the Start of the Pandemic

Some buyers are backing out of deals as a slowing market gives them room to negotiate. Others are being forced to renege due to rising mortgage rates.

www.redfin.com

 

[Outdrive1]

Cash buyer here. Let’s see what you got.

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Baller!